Mobility is a question mark but Winston should thrive in most rhythm- or vertical-based passing games.

Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.97
Vertical Jump: 28.5”
Broad Jump: 8’ 7”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.36
3-Cone: 7.16

Background (College Stats)
No honest discussion about Winston the football player is complete without talking about Winston off the field, so let’s first list his numerous off-field transgressions in college:1) stopped by police at gunpoint and investigated for reported $4,200 in damage to apartment complex from BB gun fight in November 2012; 2) investigated in 2013 after being accused of sexual assaulting an FSU student in December 2012, but was never charged; 3) cited for shoplifting crab legs from a Tallahassee grocery store in April 2014; 4) suspended for a game against Clemson in September 2014 after shouting an obscene phrase while inside the FSU student union.

As bad as he was off the field, here’s part of the reason why evaluators love him: as a redshirt freshman in 2013, he earned ACC Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year and consensus All-American honors while also setting national freshman records for passing yards (4,057) and passing touchdowns (40) en route to winning the 2013 Heisman Trophy and leading Florida State to the national championship. Winston became the first college quarterback since 1964-65 to win his first 26 starts. The Alabama native also quite famously starred as a closer for the Seminoles’ baseball team for two years and has played the sport most of his life, which means this spring and summer will be the first time in about 15 years that Winston has devoted all of his offseason solely to football.

NFL Player Comp(s): A mix of present-day Philip Rivers and a young Ben Roethlisberger

Best Scheme Fit: Would struggle in a system that placed a lot of emphasis on throwing on the run or rushing yards from its quarterback. Should thrive in most rhythm- or vertical-based passing games given his ability to anticipate and make just about every NFL throw.

Strengths

• Proven leader who exudes confidence and seems to inspire the same from his teammates.
  
• Displayed the ability to play his best when his best was needed; repeatedly made clutch throws with the game on the line and played well through adversity.
  
• Aggressive downfield thrower who throws with anticipation as opposed to waiting for the receiver to get open; understands when he needs a lot of velocity and when he doesn’t.
  
• Rare college quarterback nowadays who goes through his progressions and is most comfortable in the pocket (shows a good feel when he needs sidestep interior pressure and climb the pocket against outside pressure).
  
• Enough arm strength to make every throw he will be asked to make; may actually improve in this area once the consistency of his footwork improves.
  
• Strong build and base allows him to look down the gun barrel without flinching (i.e. keeps his eyes downfield even when he knows he is about to absorb a hit) and pull away from would-be sacks.
  

Weaknesses

• Made a number of questionable off-field decisions throughout his short stay in Tallahassee, most notably the ones mentioned above.
  
• Struggles with accuracy when he throws on the run and proved to be especially vulnerable to unexpected underneath defenders, such as a defensive end dropping back in zone coverage during a zone blitz.
  
• Shows above-average athleticism inside of pocket, but is mostly average when forced to run.
  
• Has a bit of an extended delivery that likely will likely hurt him much more in the NFL than it did in college. (Although he has shown great improvement in this area during the offseason, will he revert back to his old form under fire this fall?)
  
• Has a tendency to get sloppy with footwork and will step out instead of up in his follow-through, causing him to overcompensate and leading to incompletions on makeable throws.
  
• Interception total nearly doubled from first to second year; admitted to putting too much on his shoulders in 2014 after losing playmakers Kelvin Benjamin and Devonta Freeman in previous draft.
  

Bottom Line
Winston’s off-field missteps are numerous and, while some can be viewed as a young man that didn’t understand his every public move would be dissected, not all of them can be dismissed so easily. (How many of us knew shooting BB guns at property, shoplifting and yelling obscenities in a public place was a bad idea in junior high, much less college?) For what it is worth, the likely No. 1 overall pick recently admitted his one-game suspension was a bit of wakeup call as it marked the first time football had been taken from him. What is ironic is that he generated rave reviews about his football intelligence, suggesting he really may not have understood that a freshman Heisman Trophy winner couldn’t be just “one of the guys”. Long story short, Winston may be the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, but he is far from a slam-dunk when it comes to projecting him as a 10-15 year starter.

Speaking only to his football abilities, Winston has a substantial edge over just about every quarterback in this class because his major on-field hurdles are the same as they were for players at his position years ago: learning his new playbook and acclimating to the speed of the professional game. NFL coaches have spent most of the offseason raving about his aptitude for the X’s and O’s of football and, unlike most of his 2015 draft brethren, he has already quite familiar with the various footwork and play-calling idiosyncrasies that most college quarterbacks operating out of the spread are just now picking up. Regardless of which team ends up drafting Winston, that franchise would be wise to include language for stiff penalties for any more off-field transgressions.

With that said, he is likely to land with the Tampa Bay Bucs and new OC Dirk Koetter, who is one of the better offensive minds in the league and has plenty of experience working with a similarly-talented quarterback in Matt Ryan. Winston does appear to be a more mature person than he was a year ago and, if I’m running an NFL franchise, I’d have to operate under the assumption that since none of his mistakes happened while he was under my watch, he doesn’t need a second chance. That’s a pretty naïve perspective to take (and likely one I would not take if I had anything of consequence riding on the decision), but the fact of the matter is that plenty of NFL teams have welcomed more troubled souls into their building than Winston. Each team will have to weigh the risk of acquiring a likely top 10-15 starting NFL quarterback against the long odds that someone who got himself into trouble without a lot of a money or free time in college will suddenly stay out of trouble with more free time and millions of dollars to his name.