Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      




 

Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Third Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC East
All Out Blitz
11/5/15

East | North | South | West


Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall were among a handful of the many valuable players that saw their week or season cut short in Week 8. Almost without fail, every NFL season produces a relative (yet figurative) bloodbath around the middle of the season, which probably makes this point of the year the most difficult for fantasy owners every season because of the large number of teams about to enjoy their bye week (six this week and four more each of the next two weeks).

Consider yourself very lucky if your team(s) was/were unaffected. If there is one positive that comes out of all these injury-related departures for fantasy owners every year, it is that typically new and exciting talent gets a chance to emerge. Because I will be projecting the next quarter’s worth of statistics for all 32 teams this week, I will mostly let my projections for each team do the talking in regards to what players I expect to step up.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC East

 Buffalo Bills
9 10 11 12
Pos  Player Age PPR Non Totals MIA NYJ NE KC
QB Tyrod Taylor 26 23.4 23.4 990 255 180 285 270
TD 6 2 0 2 2
INT 4 1 1 2 0
Ru Yards 200 45 65 40 50
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
RB LeSean McCoy 27 14.9 12.1 280 80 50 90 60
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 85 25 10 30 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 2 3 4
RB Karlos Williams 22 6.1 5.1 115 30 15 50 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 30 15 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 1 0 1
WR Sammy Watkins 22 17.3 12.5 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 315 70 25 105 115
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 19 5 2 6 6
WR Percy Harvin 27 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re Yards 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
WR Robert Woods 23 10.4 6.4 195 50 35 70 40
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 16 4 3 6 3
WR Chris Hogan 26 4.4 2.1 85 30 10 25 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 1 3 2
WR Marcus Easley 29 3.8 3.3 70 0 30 0 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 2 0 1 0 1
TE Charles Clay 26 10.3 6 180 65 40 45 30
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 17 6 4 4 3
TE Chris Gragg 25 1.5 0.8 30 0 20 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 2 1 0

What to watch for: Buffalo comes off its Week 8 bye to find a challenging schedule in regards to the running game. Given the Bills’ defensive struggles prior to the bye, about the only thing owners can take for granted is that McCoy will remain involved in the offense. Getting Taylor and Watkins back from injury would be a huge lift for this offense as well. Watkins could easily go on a tear if he is fully healthy, which would obviously boost Taylor’s passing game numbers and perhaps push him into a different stratosphere than he was in prior to his Week 5 knee injury. Clay has generally been useful in fantasy anytime Watkins has been sidelined, so owners need to keep that in mind moving forward.

Miami Dolphins
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals BUF PHI DAL NYJ
QB Ryan Tannehill 27 14.3 14.3 945 245 245 205 250
TD 4 2 1 1 0
INT 4 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 35 10 5 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lamar Miller 24 17.1 13.9 275 55 65 115 40
Ru TD 3 0 1 2 0
Re Yards 100 20 35 10 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 3 1 5
RB Jonas Gray 25 1.8 1.5 55 15 10 20 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 1 0 0
WR DeVante Parker 22 1.4 0.9 35 0 20 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 1 1 0
WR Jarvis Landry 22 17.3 10.5 300 75 90 60 75
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 27 7 8 6 6
WR Kenny Stills 23 3.1 1.9 75 25 15 0 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 0 2
WR Greg Jennings 31 2.9 1.6 65 10 0 35 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 0 2 2
WR Rishard Matthews 25 14.9 10.1 285 80 65 85 55
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 19 6 4 6 3
TE Jordan Cameron 27 3 1.8 70 25 15 0 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 0 2

What to watch for: Interim HC Dan Campbell’s emphasis on the running game has obviously been a breath of fresh air for Miller’s owners, but the brutal part of the schedule that I spoke of for Miller in the preseason is about to restart. Even though I have him down for one huge game over the next four weeks, there is no guarantee that will happen as Dallas has held up fairly well on defense, especially since getting DE Greg Hardy off suspension. Tannehill should be able to carry the offense at times if Miller cannot, so Landry and Mathews figure to remain every-week fantasy starters for the time being. Parker played only four snaps before injuring his foot in Week 8 and does not appear to be anywhere close to threatening for serious playing time.

New England Patriots
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals WAS NYG BUF DEN
QB Tom Brady 38 33.2 33.2 1415 370 360 350 335
TD 12 3 3 4 2
INT 2 0 0 0 2
Ru Yards 20 5 10 0 5
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
RB LeGarrette Blount 28 7.9 7.1 200 80 70 20 30
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 10 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1
RB Dion Lewis 24 19.4 13.6 150 25 30 60 35
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 275 40 70 60 105
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 23 4 6 5 8
WR Julian Edelman 29 21 13 400 80 115 130 75
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 32 7 8 10 7
WR Brandon LaFell 28 13.6 9.9 215 70 45 65 35
Re TD 3 1 0 2 0
Rec 15 5 3 5 2
WR Aaron Dobson 24 1.1 0.6 25 10 0 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1 0
WR Danny Amendola 29 4.4 3.1 65 25 15 0 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 5 2 1 0 2
TE Rob Gronkowski 26 22.3 15.5 380 120 105 80 75
Re TD 4 2 1 1 0
Rec 27 7 8 6 6
TE Scott Chandler 30 1.5 0.8 30 15 0 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 0 0 2

What to watch for: With a multitude of matchup nightmares (Lewis, Edelman, Gronkowski) in the passing game, there’s no reason for the Patriots to stop passing anytime soon. (I’m likely being conservative with my three-touchdown predictions for Brady over the next two weeks.) Owners may get a bit of a window to sell high on Blount, who should get a chance to find the end zone in each of the next two weeks against struggling run defenses. Otherwise, owners of Gronkowski, Edelman and Lewis should sit back and enjoy the ride; there isn’t a lot of resistance on the remaining schedule outside of Denver in Week 12.

New York Jets
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals JAC BUF HOU MIA
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 32 25.1 25.1 1000 245 210 240 305
TD 8 2 1 3 2
INT 4 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 85 20 15 30 20
Ru TD 2 0 1 1 0
RB Chris Ivory 27 15.8 14 320 80 55 110 75
Ru TD 3 2 0 1 0
Re Yards 60 15 25 0 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 0 2
RB Bilal Powell 26 8.1 5.4 55 15 10 25 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 100 20 15 40 25
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 11 3 2 3 3
RB Stevan Ridley 26 0.9 0.9 35 10 10 15 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0 0
WR Brandon Marshall 31 21.5 14.5 400 120 80 110 90
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 28 9 6 7 6
WR Eric Decker 28 19.3 14.3 330 80 55 75 120
Re TD 4 1 1 1 1
Rec 20 5 4 5 6
WR Jeremy Kerley 26 3.5 1.8 70 10 35 5 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 3 1 2

What to watch for: In case owners were curious as to why Fitzpatrick has been able to post such lofty passing numbers, here’s part of that answer: the Jets have utilized four-receiver formations on 47 percent of their pass plays the season – more than double of second-place Arizona and nearly 12 times the league average. Assuming Fitzpatrick can play through his left hand injury and Marshall is good to go as well, both should fuel many fantasy owners to deep playoff runs. Ivory also has his own durability issues, but is getting more involved in the passing game as the season has moved along (Powell’s own injury woes have helped in that regard). Perhaps OC Chan Gailey will favor a more balanced offense approach if Fitzpatrick’s hand becomes too much of an issue, but he’s apparently in good enough shape to start Week 9.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals PHI TB MIA CAR
QB Tony Romo 35 18.8 18.8 540 INJ INJ 280 260
TD 3 INJ INJ 2 1
INT 1 INJ INJ 0 1
Ru Yards 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Ru TD 0 INJ INJ 0 0
QB Matt Cassel 33 10 10 475 225 250
TD 1 0 1
INT 3 2 1
Ru Yards 10 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0
RB Darren McFadden 28 16.6 13.6 340 80 105 85 70
Ru TD 2 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 85 30 25 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 3 2 3
RB Christine Michael 24 3.3 2.5 75 10 25 15 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 0 10 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 1 1 1
WR Dez Bryant 26 14.3 8.8 290 50 75 110 55
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 22 4 6 8 4
WR Terrance Williams 25 8.3 5.8 170 35 15 45 75
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 10 2 1 3 4
WR Cole Beasley 26 5.6 2.9 115 20 35 20 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 3 2 4
TE Jason Witten 33 15.8 9.8 270 60 80 75 55
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 24 6 7 6 5

What to watch for: It’s been well-established that Dallas isn’t going anywhere without Romo, who still must sit out two more weeks. Until then, expect a still less-than-100 percent Bryant to be a WR3 at best. Witten has maintained his value for the most part through the quarterback changes and has an easy enough slate ahead of him where owners should feel good about keeping him in their lineups. McFadden is no DeMarco Murray, but the Cowboys are probably going to keep feeding him like last year’s rushing champion, meaning he’s an every-week starter going forward until he suffers another inevitable hamstring injury.

New York Giants
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals TB NE bye WAS
QB Eli Manning 34 25.2 25.2 880 300 280 300
TD 7 3 2 2
INT 2 0 2 0
Ru Yards 25 5 15 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Rashad Jennings 30 9.8 7.5 120 40 55 25
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 45 15 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 2
RB Shane Vereen 26 10 7 70 30 15 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 10 55 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 9 1 6 2
RB Andre Williams 23 4.7 4.7 20 10 0 10
Ru TD 2 1 0 1
Re Yards 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0
RB Orleans Darkwa 23 4.3 3.3 75 15 20 40
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 5 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 1
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 22 20.7 14.3 310 135 65 110
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 19 7 5 7
WR Rueben Randle 24 12 7.7 170 55 70 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 13 5 5 3
WR Dwayne Harris 27 10.2 6.5 135 45 40 50
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 11 3 4 4
TE Larry Donnell 26 11.2 7.8 115 35 25 55
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 10 3 2 5

What to watch for: With the running game in utter chaos (low production combined with the four runners chipping in), owners should hope the Giants realize what they have in front of them (most notably, three unremarkable pass defenses) and ride the aerial attack. Manning and Beckham should be top-end QB1 and WR1 plays, respectively, in two of the next three games and utilized in a ton of DFS contests. Randle has already used up his good will with most of his (hopefully former) owners and probably cannot be trusted in any format despite some pretty soft matchups, but Harris could see his ownership increase in the coming weeks because he has proven to be much more reliable (at least until Victor Cruz returns, which is looking less and less likely by the week).

Philadelphia Eagles
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals DAL MIA TB DET
QB Sam Bradford 27 18.8 18.8 1095 240 340 275 240
TD 6 1 2 2 1
INT 3 1 2 0 0
Ru Yards 15 5 0 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 27 14.6 13.1 310 55 70 75 110
Ru TD 3 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 35 15 10 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 3 2 1 0
RB Ryan Mathews 27 11.6 9.6 210 35 65 40 70
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 55 10 25 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 2 1
RB Darren Sproles 32 4.3 2.3 20 10 0 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 20 25 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 2 3 1
WR Jordan Matthews 23 13.4 8.6 225 45 75 65 40
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 19 4 6 5 4
WR Nelson Agholor 22 5.1 2.9 115 25 40 30 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 3 2 2
WR Josh Huff 23 3.9 1.9 75 15 25 5 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 2 1 3
WR Riley Cooper 27 5.8 4 100 20 35 0 45
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 7 2 2 0 3
WR Miles Austin 31 9 6 180 45 55 50 30
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 12 3 3 4 2
TE Zach Ertz 24 9.5 5.8 170 20 40 65 45
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 15 2 3 6 4
TE Brent Celek 30 5.3 3.3 70 25 10 20 15
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 1 2 2

What to watch for: It’s probably now or never for the Eagles’ passing game, which has an enviable slate ahead after visiting Dallas this weekend. With that said, owners have to hope that Matthews’ issues with drops were addressed/corrected during the team’s bye week, because Bradford cannot be expected to consistently succeed with Austin as his most consistent receiver. It’ll be interesting to see if HC Chip Kelly used the bye week to acknowledge that Mathews is the best back for his offense at the moment and willing to have him split carries consistently with Murray. Philadelphia’s defense has been playing well for the most part since a slow start, which may afford the Murray-Mathews duo enough time and touches to allow both to be fantasy relevant for the rest of the season.

Washington Redskins
9 10 11 12
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals NE NO CAR NYG
QB Kirk Cousins 27 14.4 14.4 1140 300 270 225 345
TD 4 1 1 0 2
INT 7 3 0 2 2
Ru Yards 20 5 5 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Alfred Morris 26 7.3 6.3 160 35 60 20 45
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 30 10 5 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
RB Matt Jones 22 10.6 9.1 200 40 75 35 50
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 45 10 5 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 2 1
RB Chris Thompson 24 9.6 5.1 60 15 25 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 145 50 20 30 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 6 2 5 5
WR Pierre Garcon 29 12.6 7.6 245 65 50 60 70
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 20 5 4 5 6
WR DeSean Jackson 28 9.8 7 220 60 55 30 75
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 11 3 2 2 4
WR Andre Roberts 27 1 0.5 20 10 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1 0
WR Ryan Grant 24 1.6 0.9 35 20 15 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 2 1 0 0
WR Jamison Crowder 22 6.6 3.4 135 35 30 25 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 3 3 4
TE Jordan Reed 25 15.1 9.4 255 40 80 50 85
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 23 4 7 5 7

What to watch for: Reed figures to have a slow week by his standards as Patriots HC Bill Belichick/DC Matt Patricia do their thing and take away the opponent’s top weapon, but he’s a player to target moving forward. He has emerged as Cousins’ go-to guy and only figures to benefit from the return of Jackson. As long as he stays healthy, Reed should be a fixture in weekly and daily lineups. The biggest loser of this transition period figures to be Garçon (and Crowder, to a lesser extent since less was invested in him to begin with), who was strangely hit-or-miss when he was the clear top option in the passing game during Jackson and Reed’s absences. I wouldn’t expect any clarity from the running game either since HC Jay Gruden continues to insist that Morris is the starter. Washington could be trailing often in each of its next four games, meaning Thompson could see plenty of work in garbage time.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.