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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Second Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC West
All Out Blitz
10/8/15

East | North | South | West

During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get right to it.

At lWest this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy” or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8 and 12.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at lWest one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC West



 Denver Broncos
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals OAK CLE bye GB
QB Peyton Manning 39 25.2 25.2 890 295 280 315
TD 7 3 2 2
INT 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
7 10
RB C.J. Anderson 24 10.5 8.2 130 25 50 55
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 55 20 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 2 3
RB Ronnie Hillman 23 7.3 6 140 45 60 35
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 10 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 2
WR Demaryius Thomas 27 23.8 15.2 335 115 80 140
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 26 9 7 10
WR Emmanuel Sanders 28 22.5 15.5 285 90 105 90
Re TD 3 1 1 1
Rec 21 7 6 8
Cody Latimer 22
WR Bennie Fowler 24 3.2 1.8 55 10 30 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 2 1
TE Owen Daniels 32 10.7 7.3 100 40 35 25
Re TD 2 1 1 0
Rec 10 4 3 3
TE Virgil Green 27 1.3 0.7 20 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1

Buy: Anderson. It has become abundantly clear Anderson is not going to meet preseason projections this season, but that doesn’t shake my belief that he’s the best fit for the offense HC Gary Kubiak wants to run. Kubiak and OC Rick Dennison have proven time and time again they can develop solid or great offensive lines, but the Broncos have to be able to avoid injuries long enough up front to establish some continuity. There’s a very good chance that won’t happen until the second half of the season.

Sell: Hillman. There’s no question Hillman has improved from last year. However, I see him more as a temporary solution to a much bigger problem, which is the Broncos’ inability to create running lanes inside. Until that happens, Hillman gives Denver its best shot at a running game simply because he has a better chance than Anderson to cover up the mistakes the offensive line is making. I don’t buy Hillman as a permanent solution simply because he’s never shown enough durability to handle the job on a long-term basis.

Breakout player: Fowler. I use the term “breakout” loosely here simply because there isn’t going to be enough volume in a Kubiak offense to feed Thomas, Sanders and another receiver. It should be noted, however, that Fowler can get deep and is emerging as the type of player Denver probably hoped Cody Latimer was going to be the season. If Thomas or Sanders is forced to miss time this season, I’d be willing to bet that Fowler could be a serviceable WR3.


Kansas City Chiefs
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CHI MIN PIT DET
QB Alex Smith 31 17.7 17.7 995 240 270 300 185
TD 3 1 0 2 0
INT 1 0 1 0 0
Ru Yards 90 15 30 15 30
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
RB Jamaal Charles 28 23.5 19 370 115 70 60 125
Ru TD 4 2 1 0 1
Re Yards 150 45 50 35 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 5 6 4 3
RB Charcandrick West 24 1.6 1.4 50 20 5 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 5 5 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 1 0 0 0
WR Jeremy Maclin 27 13.3 8 260 65 55 85 55
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 21 6 4 7 4
WR Jason Avant 32 3.1 1.6 65 20 35 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 3 1 0
WR Chris Conley 22 6.4 3.9 155 30 40 55 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 3 3 2
WR De'Anthony Thomas 22 1 0.5 20 10 0 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 0 1
TE Travis Kelce 25 16.8 11.5 340 65 90 115 70
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 21 4 5 7 5

Buy: West. There is a 99 percent likelihood West is sitting on the waiver wire in your league and probably a 50 percent chance most of the owners in your league have never heard of him. With that said, HC Andy Reid hinted that West has moved (at least temporarily) ahead of Knile Davis on the depth chart. While it’s very possible West and Davis would share carries if Charles got hurt, it’s almost always better to snag the player that is the next man up on the depth chart for fantasy purposes.

Sell: Maclin. This week or next may be the ideal time to trade Maclin. For all the production he’s posted over the last two weeks, it still doesn’t change the fact is no better than third in line behind Charles and Kelce in the red zone. Much like Green Bay in Week 3, the Chiefs spent most of the second half against Cincinnati trailing by more than one score. I believe we can safely say “garbage time” has accounted for most of Maclin’s production this season.

Breakout player: Conley. This is another recommendation for the dynasty crowd, if only because Kansas City’s passing attack already struggles to make one receiver fantasy-relevant. However, it does appear as if the rookie has passed Albert Wilson as the second receiver in Kansas City.

Oakland Raiders
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals DEN bye SD NYJ
QB Derek Carr 24 13.6 13.6 735 260 260 215
TD 3 0 2 1
INT 5 2 1 2
Ru Yards 35 15 5 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Latavius Murray 25 15.5 11.5 205 50 115 40
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 80 25 40 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 5 3
RB Roy Helu 26 4 2.3 40 15 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 30 10 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 2
RB Marcel Reece 30 3.8 1.8 10 0 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 10 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 2 2
WR Amari Cooper 21 15.8 9.8 235 85 60 90
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 18 6 5 7
WR Michael Crabtree 27 9.2 4.8 145 40 35 70
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 4 5
WR Seth Roberts 24 8 5.3 100 40 40 20
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 8 3 3 2
WR Andre Holmes 27 2.3 1.3 40 15 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 2 0
TE Clive Walford 23 2.5 1.2 35 10 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 2 1
TE Mychal Rivera 24 5.7 4 60 25 35 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 5 2 3 0

Buy: Cooper. The No. 4 overall pick is about to embark on a very difficult stretch of pass defenses, so there may be a window of opportunity here. With that said, Cooper has already burned Jimmy Smith for a touchdown and posted six catches on six targets for 87 yards in Joe Haden’s coverage in Week 3. Tracy Porter “held” the rookie to three receptions on a targets for 23 yards in his coverage last week, but it is important to note Cooper scored his touchdown out of the slot and is already double teams. While no one can be expected to repeat Odell Beckham Jr.’s magical 2014, Cooper is on pace for 96 catches, 1,356 yards and eight scores – a pace he could easily maintain given the fact he has seen no fewer than nine targets in any game this season.

Sell: I was tempted to put Crabtree here, but there should be plenty of opportunity for the ex-49er to produce low-end WR3 numbers given how much attention Cooper is drawing and how little the tight ends are being utilized (injuries have contributed to tight ends’ lack of involvement).

Breakout player: Roberts. Before getting shut out last week, the West Alabama product made some noise with touchdown catches in each of his previous two contests. At 6-2 and 195 pounds, Roberts is getting some work out of the slot and taking advantage of his opportunities. It’s also worth noting that Roberts has seen 162 snaps - only 31 fewer than Crabtree and 95 more than fourth receiver Holmes.

San Diego Chargers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals PIT GB OAK BAL
QB Philip Rivers 33 27.5 27.5 1390 330 380 315 365
TD 10 3 3 2 2
INT 3 0 2 1 0
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Melvin Gordon 22 8.5 7.5 200 45 50 65 40
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 40 10 15 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 2 0 1
RB Danny Woodhead 30 16.1 10.6 100 30 25 30 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 205 50 75 50 30
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 22 5 7 5 5
RB Branden Oliver 24 1.3 1 25 10 5 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 5 5 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 1 0 0 0
WR Keenan Allen 23 21.6 14.4 395 115 70 90 120
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 29 7 6 7 9
WR Steve Johnson 29 14.5 9.5 165 INJ 45 50 70
Re TD 2 INJ 1 0 1
Rec 15 INJ 4 5 6
WR Malcom Floyd 33 6.2 4.2 125 INJ 50 20 55
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 6 INJ 2 1 3
WR Dontrelle Inman 26 9.5 5.5 55 55 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 4 0 0 0
TE Antonio Gates 35 17.5 12.5 260 65 80 80 35
Re TD 4 2 1 1 0
Rec 20 5 7 6 2
TE Ladarius Green 25 6 3.5 140 30 45 25 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 2 3

Buy: Woodhead. To be honest, both Woodhead and Gordon are good buys for very different reasons. Woodhead continues to be underrated since he is considered little more than a change-of-pace back, yet he has produced consistently enough to be the RB6 in PPR leagues. Better yet, his role isn’t going to change anytime soon. Gordon is a solid buy because his owners are likely getting frustrated by the amount of time and high-leverage snaps Woodhead continues to see. It seems reasonable by the second half of the season, however, that the rookie will at least be splitting red-zone work with Woodhead and become the preferred option at the goal line.

Sell: Johnson. Unlike many of the “sells” I have mentioned thus far, I don’t believe Johnson is going to fall off the fantasy map. However, I do believe the return of Gates will stunt his early-season production quite a bit and make him a bit too inconsistent to count on as a weekly starter.

Breakout player: Inman makes for a nice one-week pickup in the likely event that Johnson and Floyd miss Week 5, but he’s unlikely to have much value after that. Green is going to see a significant drop in value with the return of Gates, but I suspect he’ll be more involved this year than he has been in previous seasons.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals DET PIT BAL CLE
QB Carson Palmer 35 26.6 26.6 1200 320 310 290 280
TD 10 2 4 2 2
INT 1 0 0 1 0
Ru Yards 5 5 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Andre Ellington 26 13.5 10.3 125 25 25 30 45
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 165 55 35 50 25
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 13 3 4 4 2
RB David Johnson 23 6.3 4.3 40 5 15 0 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 15 25 15 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 8 1 2 3 2
RB Chris Johnson 29 13 11.5 300 70 80 45 105
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 40 15 15 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 3 2 1 0
WR Larry Fitzgerald 32 22.9 15.4 375 90 125 85 75
Re TD 4 1 2 0 1
Rec 30 8 10 6 6
WR Michael Floyd 25 9.9 6.4 195 50 35 70 40
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 14 4 2 5 3
WR John Brown 25 16.3 11.8 290 70 60 55 105
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 18 5 4 4 5
WR Jaron Brown 25 1.3 0.5 20 15 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 2 0 1 0
TE Darren Fells 29 2.1 1.1 45 10 15 0 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2

Buy: Brown. It’s entirely possible that owners are a bit disappointed in Brown considering he was the talk of Arizona camp for the second straight offseason. With that said, it’s also entirely possible that Fitzgerald’s incredible start will start leading to more one-on-one opportunities for Brown down the field. And while Floyd figures to get his share of those as well, it’s unlikely the chemistry Brown has built with Palmer since his arrival will force him to take a backseat to Floyd.

Sell: Fitzgerald. Much like Devonta Freeman, I’m not looking to sell Fitzgerald because the odds are strong he was selected to be a bench player for most fantasy teams, so getting WR1 production from a WR3 doesn’t seem like such a bad deal. There’s no reason to think that Fitzgerald can’t remain highly productive, but the 120-catch, 1,728-yard and 20-touchdown pace he is currently on is highly unlikely to be realized, especially for a 32-year-old receiver.

Breakout player: David Johnson. The Northern Iowa rookie has already flashed on multiple occasions this season, so this is a reminder to keep him stashed even though HC Bruce Arians has said his playing time will be reduced as a result of Ellington returning from injury. Ellington is a poor bet to stay healthy and the 30-year-old Chris Johnson probably shouldn’t be expected to keep producing at the rate he has through four games.

St. Louis Rams
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals GB bye CLE SF
QB Nick Foles 26 18.3 18.3 785 265 265 255
TD 4 1 1 2
INT 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 15 10 5 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Todd Gurley 21 17 14 305 80 135 90
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 55 25 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 4 3 2
RB Tre Mason 22 1.2 1.2 35 10 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0
RB Benny Cunningham 25 4 2 10 0 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 15 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 2 2
WR Tavon Austin 24 12 8.7 60 25 35 0
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 140 45 60 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 4 3
WR Kenny Britt 26 10.5 7.2 155 40 55 60
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 10 3 3 4
WR Brian Quick 26 15.5 10.5 195 50 65 80
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 15 4 5 6
WR Stedman Bailey 24 3.5 1.8 55 20 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 2
TE Jared Cook 28 8.5 5.8 115 60 40 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 8 4 3 1
TE Lance Kendricks 27 1.3 0.7 20 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1

Buy: Austin. Perhaps there are a few readers that recall how highly I spoke of the former No. 8 overall pick during Big Board season. Austin will struggle for weekly consistency in large part because of the offense he plays in, but in an offense that commits to using his many talents, he can be a “splash” fantasy asset that occasionally wins a week for his team. He’s ideally suited for a fantasy bench role at the moment, although it’s going to be hard for the Rams not to use him more often when he can be as productive as he was last week against a very good Arizona defense.

Sell: None.

Breakout player: Quick. The trade of Chris Givens to Baltimore last week not only happened because the Ravens needed a deep threat, but also because it freed up a roster spot for Quick. The reasons behind his inactivity have been guarded by the Rams like a national secret, but HC Jeff Fisher has made it clear his shoulder is no longer an issue. Quick was insanely productive considering how poor the St. Louis offense was last year, so a similar burst out of the gate in 2015 can’t and shouldn’t be ruled out.

San Francisco 49ers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals NYG BAL SEA STL
QB Colin Kaepernick 27 15.3 15.3 790 175 215 170 230
TD 4 1 1 0 2
INT 6 2 0 2 2
Ru Yards 175 45 55 30 45
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Carlos Hyde 23 9.6 8.1 225 35 45 60 85
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 40 15 10 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 0 3
RB Reggie Bush 30 6.3 3.3 35 5 10 5 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 95 15 25 40 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 2 3 5 2
WR Anquan Boldin 34 11.1 7.4 175 35 55 15 70
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 15 4 4 2 5
WR Torrey Smith 26 8.5 6.3 190 45 60 30 55
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 9 2 3 2 2
WR Bruce Ellington 24 1 0.5 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 1
WR Quinton Patton 25 5.8 3 120 25 40 25 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 4 2 3
TE Vernon Davis 31 6.3 3.7 110 INJ 25 40 45
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 8 INJ 2 3 3
TE Garrett Celek 27 3.8 2.8 50 40 0 10 0
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 4 3 0 1 0

Buy: Hyde. It’s hard to believe that only three weeks ago, Hyde’s value had reached such a point that it seemed feasible he could finish as a top-10 fantasy back. While the last three weeks haven’t changed him at all, many of San Francisco’s weaknesses have been exposed – including the play of Kaepernick. As a result, Hyde is probably little more than a flex option at the moment. However, his prospects get a bit better after the Week 10 bye.

Sell: None.

Breakout player: None.

Seattle Seahawks
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals CIN CAR SF DAL
QB Russell Wilson 26 21.7 21.7 865 260 175 220 210
TD 4 1 0 3 0
INT 2 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 200 45 45 55 55
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
RB Marshawn Lynch 29 19.5 16 310 80 65 105 60
Ru TD 4 1 0 2 1
Re Yards 90 35 30 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 5 4 2 3
RB Fred Jackson 34 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re Yards 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
RB Thomas Rawls 22 2 1.5 50 15 10 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 10 5 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1 0
WR Doug Baldwin 26 12.1 7.4 235 70 40 80 45
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 19 6 3 6 4
WR Jermaine Kearse 25 8.1 5.6 165 55 30 30 50
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 2 3
WR Tyler Lockett 22 6 4 100 25 20 40 15
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 2 2 3 1
WR Chris Matthews 25 2.3 1.3 50 15 10 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
TE Jimmy Graham 28 9.6 5.6 165 40 30 55 40
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 16 4 3 5 4
TE Luke Willson 25 2.5 1.3 50 15 15 0 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 0 2

Buy: Baldwin. Someone forgot to send Wilson the memo he was supposed to force-feed Graham the ball. Behind what appears to be a very leaky front five that actually has little relative experience playing on the offensive line, it makes plenty of sense for this offense to be tight-end centric. That obviously has not happened. Wilson’s ability to turn almost every pass attempt into something you might see on the playground does tend to allow receivers to shake free downfield, however, and Baldwin has benefited the most from it thus far. Wilson is going to need to continue to create for this offense to be successful, so there’s no reason to believe Seattle will shy away from this formula anytime soon.

Sell: Lynch. I may be torn on this pick more than any other I have made up to this point. On one hand, Jackson’s high-ankle sprain would seem to make Lynch a three-down back for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, the multitude of injuries he’s already had to deal with the season would seem to suggest the cave is about to collapse. He appears to be a game-time decision again this week, possibly leaving his owners with a fourth straight week without double-digit fantasy points from their RB1.

Breakout player: Lockett. The rookie has been a popular breakout pick for many ever since training camp, although a true breakout is unlikely in this offense. Nevertheless, he played 37 of the 67 snaps against Detroit and would seem to be a logical pick to steal even more snaps from Kearse as the season progresses. It’s doubtful he’ll be anything more than WR5 in 2015, but he could probably fill in seamlessly for Baldwin if the veteran were to miss significant time.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.