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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Second Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC South
All Out Blitz
10/8/15

East | North | South | West

During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get right to it.

At least this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy” or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8 and 12.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC South

 Houston Texans
QB Brian Hoyer 29 13.2 13.2 970 295 220 225 245
TD 4 1 1 1 1
INT 5 1 2 0 2
Ru Yards 0 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Arian Foster 29 21.8 17 355 55 65 130 105
Ru TD 3 0 0 2 1
Re Yards 145 55 25 35 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 6 4 5 4
RB Alfred Blue 24 3.9 3.6 80 15 15 40 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 5 0 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 0 0 1
RB Chris Polk 25 2.1 1.1 10 5 0 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 20 0 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 1 0 1
WR DeAndre Hopkins 23 17.4 10.4 355 140 80 75 60
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 28 10 7 5 6
WR Cecil Shorts 27 12.7 8.7 140 INJ 65 30 45
Re TD 2 INJ 1 0 1
Rec 12 INJ 5 3 4
WR Nate Washington 32 8.7 5.3 160 INJ 30 50 80
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 10 INJ 2 3 5
WR Jaelen Strong 21 3.3 2.7 20 20 0 0 0
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 2 2 0 0 0
WR Keith Mumphery 23 2.3 1.3 40 40 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 3 0 0 0
TE Garrett Graham 29 1.9 0.9 35 10 0 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 1 2
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz 23 2.5 1.3 50 15 10 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 2 0

Buy: Foster. Fantasy owners are an impatient lot, so when a star returns and disappoints in his first outing or two, the natural reaction is to panic. As far as I could tell last week, Foster looked the same as he had in each of the last few seasons. At worst, he’s a more injury-prone version of Matt Forte. At best, he’s the Texans’ offensive centerpiece with a remaining schedule that should be the envy of all fantasy owners.

Sell: None.

Breakout player: Eventually, my answer will be Strong, but he’s been a healthy inactive most of the season. It’s quite likely with the pathetic quarterback situation in Houston, no receiver will be overly useful in fantasy this season other than Hopkins.


Indianapolis Colts
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals HOU NE NO CAR
QB Andrew Luck 25 21.6 21.6 825 INJ 280 270 275
TD 5 INJ 1 3 1
INT 2 INJ 1 0 1
Ru Yards 75 INJ 15 25 35
Ru TD 1 INJ 0 0 1
QB Matt Hasselbeck 39 16.3 16.3 245 245
TD 1 1
INT 0 0
Ru Yards 5 5
Ru TD 0 0
RB Frank Gore 32 14.4 11.6 220 70 55 60 35
Ru TD 3 1 1 1 0
Re Yards 65 10 25 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 3 4 1 3
WR T.Y. Hilton 25 13.6 8.4 275 75 65 85 50
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 21 5 5 7 4
WR Andre Johnson 34 7 4.3 150 55 20 35 40
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 14 5 2 4 3
WR Donte Moncrief 22 11 7 220 30 75 70 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 16 3 5 5 3
WR Phillip Dorsett 22 7.5 5.3 150 10 45 15 80
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 9 1 3 1 4
TE Dwayne Allen 25 6.3 4 100 25 25 20 30
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 9 2 2 2 3
TE Coby Fleener 26 5.3 2.8 110 40 25 35 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 4 1

Buy: Gore. The overall production I have for Gore this quarter isn’t overwhelming by any stretch of imagination, but it assumes that Luck is healthy. If he’s not, Gore is going to see a significant increase in workload, which might happen anyway. Assuming the 49ers’ all-time leading rusher can stop fumbling in the red zone, it seems rather obvious the Colts should start putting more on his plate. His remaining schedule isn’t overly daunting and it’s important to note that Miami is the Colts’ Week 16 opponent.

Sell: Luck. Anyone who followed my PMA series this preseason knew that Luck was in for a rough start to the season, but there is obviously no way anyone could predict he would be tied with Jameis Winston for the league lead in interceptions and have the NFL’s worst quarterback rating. However, my concern is not with a slow start so much as it is my concern over his shoulder. I suffered a shoulder subluxation during my athletic career and it affected me the rest of that season. Combine that experience with the knowledge that Luck operates behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and you have a recipe for potential disaster.

Breakout player: Dorsett. I’m not going to pretend to understand how Luck’s connection with Johnson was the story of the summer in Indianapolis, but that’s another story for another day. As long as it remains the case, there’s an opportunity for a third receiver to step up and be fantasy-relevant – a job that should go to a player that reminds many of Hilton. If Luck is able to get his shoulder right at some point in the next month, it seems reasonable he’ll be able to start taking some deep shots. If that is in fact the case, Dorsett would have some value as an end-of-bench option.


Jacksonville Jaguars
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals TB HOU BUF bye
QB Blake Bortles 23 18.8 18.8 670 230 240 200
TD 5 2 2 1
INT 4 0 1 3
Ru Yards 75 20 40 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB T.J. Yeldon 21 13.5 11.2 230 125 65 40
Ru TD 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 45 10 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 2 4
WR Allen Robinson 22 18 12.7 260 105 80 75
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 16 5 5 6
WR Marqise Lee 23 0.7 0.3 10 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 1 0 0
WR Allen Hurns 23 16.5 11.8 235 75 105 55
Re TD 2 1 1 0
Rec 14 5 6 3
TE Julius Thomas 27 10.5 7 80 INJ 45 35
Re TD 1 INJ 1 0
Rec 7 INJ 4 3
TE Marcedes Lewis 31 2.7 1.3 40 30 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 3 0 1

Buy: Thomas. I’m not overly crazy about investing in the Jaguars’ offense, but it seems reasonable that a player with top-10 ability at his position is a reasonable “buy” option, especially considering his ability to convert in the red zone. His true impact probably won’t be felt until the second half of the season, but I do like his chances of being a starting fantasy option before Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye.

Sell: None.

Breakout player: Hurns has already emerged and I don’t believe in Bortles yet the season, so the two most likely candidates do not qualify for this honor, in my opinion.

Tennessee Titans
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals BUF MIA ATL HOU
QB Marcus Mariota 21 19.8 19.8 1025 225 285 240 275
TD 5 0 3 0 2
INT 3 2 0 1 0
Ru Yards 80 20 10 40 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
RB Bishop Sankey 22 9.3 6.8 135 25 60 15 35
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 75 15 20 10 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 2 3 1 4
RB Dexter McCluster 27 9.9 6.1 70 10 5 40 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 115 30 15 25 45
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 15 4 2 5 4
RB Terrance West 24 7 6.8 140 35 40 10 55
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 10 0 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 1 0 0
WR Kendall Wright 25 14.6 9.6 265 50 70 55 90
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 20 4 6 5 5
WR Harry Douglas 30 6.9 3.6 145 35 40 25 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 4 2 4
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 22 7.5 5.3 150 35 65 35 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 9 2 3 3 1
WR Justin Hunter 24 2.1 1.1 45 15 10 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 1 1 0
TE Delanie Walker 31 12 7 220 45 55 70 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 20 4 5 7 4

Buy: Wright. There are plenty of reports this summer to suggest that Mariota had a “special connection” with Wright and that has played out so far the season. Even though he has posted two 20-plus PPR fantasy-point performances in three tries so far, I get the sense Wright is still flying under the radar. Perhaps even better yet, Tennessee’s already had its bye, so any owner acquiring him will be able to snag a weekly WR3.

Sell: Mariota. This is yet another one that pains me, because I believe in the talent. With that said, the coaches are torn on letting the No. 2 overall pick use his natural athleticism to accentuate his passing skills, thereby limiting the fantasy quarterback he could be. Given that we are talking about HC Ken Whisenhunt, I don’t think we can just assume he’s going to make the right call here (or at least the one that fantasy owners want).

Breakout player: Green-Beckham. Including the criticism that I just gave Whisenhunt, I have reservations about DGB having any kind of substantial impact in 2015. At some point, however, it makes too much sense to use the rookie’s size and incredible athleticism much in the same way Pittsburgh used Martavis Bryant last year. Green-Beckham needs to be owned in every league, but there’s no way of telling at this moment if that’s going to be a wasted bench spot or not.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals WAS NO TEN TB
QB Matt Ryan 30 20.4 20.4 1040 275 330 195 240
TD 7 2 2 1 2
INT 2 0 1 1 0
Ru Yards 20 5 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Devonta Freeman 23 19.5 16.3 235 50 70 80 35
Ru TD 5 1 2 2 0
Re Yards 115 35 45 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 5 2 2
RB Tevin Coleman 22 9.6 8.9 150 15 25 35 75
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 2
Re Yards 25 10 0 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 0 0 2
WR Julio Jones 26 25.5 17.5 460 125 150 65 120
Re TD 4 2 1 0 1
Rec 32 8 10 6 8
WR Roddy White 33 5.9 3.9 95 20 40 35 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 2 3 3 0
WR Leonard Hankerson 26 13.9 9.1 245 60 75 30 80
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 19 5 5 3 6
TE Jacob Tamme 30 4.8 2.5 100 25 20 45 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 2 4 1

Buy: Coleman. Perhaps I’m just being a contrarian here and, yes, I realize players can lose their jobs due to injury. It’s quite possible I’m reading too much into the situation, but I do find it notable that two different staffs and regimes have both felt as if Freeman wasn’t good enough to be a starter out of training camp. Regardless, I would be stunned if this is not a committee backfield before the end of the year.

Sell: Freeman. Can we realistically expect Freeman to continue producing the level (or anywhere close to it) he has over the last two weeks? Of course not. The good news is that given where he was selected in most drafts, most of his owners can simply enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. The reality of the situation is that he wasn’t able to win the job in camp with nearly identical rushing numbers (minus his seven touchdowns) to the ones he posted as a rookie last season. It’s obvious he’s a fit in OC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but I doubt Coleman is relegated to bench duty the rest of the season either.

Breakout player: Hankerson has already made his presence known, pretty much stealing the one candidate for this honor. If injuries should strike Freeman and Coleman, then Terron Ward would be my selection here.

Carolina Panthers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals bye SEA PHI IND
QB Cam Newton 26 21.3 21.3 685 200 215 270
TD 4 0 1 3
INT 3 2 0 1
Ru Yards 125 40 55 30
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
RB Jonathan Stewart 28 9.2 7.8 145 35 45 65
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 30 10 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 2 1
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 25 0.7 0.7 20 5 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0
RB Mike Tolbert 29 7.7 5 35 10 5 20
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 55 25 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 2 3
WR Devin Funchess 21 5.2 3.8 55 15 10 30
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 4 1 1 2
WR Philly Brown 23 3.5 1.8 55 20 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 2
WR Jerricho Cotchery 32 6.8 3.5 105 30 40 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 4 3
WR Ted Ginn Jr. 30 13.5 9.8 175 40 60 75
Re TD 2 0 1 1
Rec 11 3 4 4
TE Greg Olsen 30 15 8.7 200 50 65 85
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 19 5 6 8

Buy: None.

Sell: Newton. The Panthers’ quarterback is on pace for 172 carries, which would shatter his previous career high by 45. Moreover, Newton is the only quarterback (two instances) since 1972 with more than 125 rushing attempts in a season. While there’s always the chance that a player built as well as Newton can withstand the punishment, I’m not going to be the one that bets on him playing all 16 games AND remain a semi-effective passer at the same time.

Breakout player: Artis-Payne. Why I have serious doubts about Newton’s ability to continue running at the rate he has, I think it’s even more likely Stewart will miss some time due to injury once again. The Auburn product is nothing special in terms of talent, but should be able to come reasonably close to matching the meager production Stewart has managed in limited action so far this season.

New Orleans Saints
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals PHI ATL IND NYG
QB Drew Brees 36 22.5 22.5 1285 350 310 295 330
TD 7 2 2 1 2
INT 2 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Mark Ingram 25 14.5 11 255 60 75 75 45
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 125 35 30 25 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 4 3 3 4
RB C.J. Spiller 28 18 12.5 90 20 35 15 20
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 290 60 105 40 85
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 22 5 6 4 7
RB Khiry Robinson 25 4 3.5 65 15 10 25 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 15 5 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 1 0
WR Brandin Cooks 21 14.1 8.4 20 5 0 0 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 255 80 60 75 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 23 7 5 7 4
WR Marques Colston 32 8.8 5.3 150 40 35 40 35
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 14 4 3 4 3
WR Willie Snead 22 8.9 4.9 195 65 35 50 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 5 3 4 4
WR Brandon Coleman 23 4.3 3 60 25 0 20 15
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 5 2 0 1 2
TE Ben Watson 34 6.9 4.4 115 15 30 25 45
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 10 1 3 2 4
TE Josh Hill 25 6.8 5 80 25 15 10 30
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 7 2 2 1 2

Buy: Spiller/Robinson. It took a little bit longer than most expected for Spiller to make his impact in the passing game, but his game-winning 80-yard touchdown catch in overtime in Week 4 is the type of play that tends to stick in the mind of coaches. HC Sean Payton was already critical of himself for not giving Spiller more snaps and it’s quite likely we saw the beginning of the new and updated version of Darren Sproles in Payton’s offense last week. I’ve chosen to include Robinson as well since I believe he is a more-than-capable replacement for Ingram, who has rarely ever made it through season without missing multiple games.

Sell: Ingram. Congratulations if you knew that Ingram leads the Saints in receptions (22). Now consider if he maintains that pace, he will finish with 88 – 59 more than his previous career high. While Ingram has improved as a runner, he’s only averaging 3.6 YPC. He’s also generating a ton of his value as a result of his work in the passing game, which we can only hope is the result of the Saints working Spiller in slowly. While I think he will still contribute somewhat heavily in the passing game, I think his value is about to take a tumble. Last but not least, Ingram has played more than 13 games only once in his career.

Breakout player: Snead. This one’s been happening for a couple weeks already. While Snead cannot be expected to score many touchdowns, he appears to be getting open at will and has become a trusted option for Brees.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 6 7 8
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals JAC bye WAS ATL
QB Jameis Winston 21 23.8 23.8 860 250 300 310
TD 7 2 3 2
INT 4 1 0 3
Ru Yards 30 15 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Doug Martin 26 9.3 7 160 65 40 55
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 10 5 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 1 4
RB Charles Sims 24 8.2 4.8 55 20 20 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 90 25 40 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 4 3
WR Mike Evans 22 24 17 330 80 135 115
Re TD 3 0 2 1
Rec 21 6 8 7
WR Vincent Jackson 32 14.2 9.2 215 65 80 70
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 15 5 4 6
WR Louis Murphy 28 8.8 6.2 125 60 40 25
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 8 3 3 2
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 22 13 10 40 INJ INJ 40
Re TD 1 INJ INJ 1
Rec 3 INJ INJ 3

Buy: Evans. This one’s pretty simple. Evans figures to be highly inefficient while Winston is learning on the job, but it seems like a pretty good bet he is going to see plenty of targets as the season progresses. Owners should not expect his 17-target Week 3 to become the norm, but the combination of Tampa Bay’s defense and Winston putting the Bucs in the hole on a weekly basis should allow for plenty of volume.

Sell: Martin. It’s good to see Martin running like he did as a rookie again, so this recommendation is all about my belief that the offensive line just doesn’t have the manpower to get it done consistently this year.

Breakout player: Seferian-Jenkins. We already saw what ASJ could do in Week 1 and his return is certain to help Winston. Considering defenses will be spending the majority of their time trying to figure out how to deal with the size Tampa Bay has at receiver, it only makes sense that Seferian-Jenkins will get plenty of work underneath and in the red zone.



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.