This is my fourth and final installment of quarterly projections.
Hopefully, the first three installments have helped you reach a
point to where you can relax over the next week or two.
Because I take on all 32 teams and there is a lot to cover, I’m going
to get right to it this week.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at lWest one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: There’s been
some discussion that Osweiler will keep the seat warm for Manning
for the next two weeks before Manning takes over for the next two
weeks. It is believe at that time HC Gary Kubiak and GM/Executive
VP of Football Operations John Elway will make a decision on the
starting quarterback in Week 17 in order to prepare that player
for the playoffs. These projections were done before I heard of
those rumblings and I’m under the belief the Broncos will
turn back to Manning as the permanent starter when he proves his
health. What seems to be clear it is the running game functions
much better when Kubiak has a quarterback like Osweiler that is
able to move the pocket. As such, I projected as though Manning
will return in Week 15 and carry the team through until the end.
In such a case, Hillman is probably the back to own in fantasy because
of his big-play ability. Of course, it would be silly to dismiss
Anderson, who is now running with the kind of clarity and vigor
that made him a fantasy superstar late last season. The shift to
Osweiler has not been good for Thomas thus far, as he is one blown
coverage away from producing back-to-back duds. Sanders appears
to be largely unaffected by whichever quarterback is under center
(small sample size with Osweiler obviously), but I’m not sure
there’s room for the running game and two consistently productive
receivers in Kubiak’s offense. Daniels and Davis seem to be
canceling each other out as well, meaning we have a lot more questions
than answers in Denver.
What to watch for: The Chiefs’
running game continues to be ridiculously productive, if only because
they seem to be one of the few teams that picks a running back and
stays with them all game long. Given the emergence of Ware, however,
I’m not sure that will continue. It seems logical Kansas City
will try to use the shifty and elusive West with the powerful Ware
in some kind of split backfield, although I don’t think it’s
out of the question for both to be low-end RB2s down the stretch.
Assuming neither back is featured once West returns, Ware would
be the logical choice for goal-line duties and West the likely choice
for the most work outside the 20s. Maclin has enjoyed a few blow-up
games in his first season as a Chief, but the running game and defense
figure to take center stage as Kansas City makes a playoff push.
The fact that HC Andy Reid’s offenses usually preach passing-game
balance figures to put an artificial ceiling on his potential to
dominate Weeks 15 and 16. Kelce is on track to surpass last year’s
numbers, but he suffers from the same passing-game balance problem
that Maclin does. It’s hard to see either player exploding
as a result.
What to watch for: Carr might catch
a break with Chiefs’ pass-rusher extraordinaire Justin Houston’s
hyperextended knee, but the linebacker has yet to be ruled out this
week. And even if he is, Carr will be hard-pressed to dominate down
the stretch in the same kind of way he has at times earlier this
season. Cooper has a series of less-than-desirable matchups while
Crabtree’s are only slightly better as few teams have been
playing better defense than Kansas City or Denver lately. Green
Bay’s pass defense (outside of defending tight ends) has been
pretty solid as well, meaning owners need to consider other options
if they been relying on any of the aforementioned three Raiders.
Murray has fallen on hard times lately as defenses that once appeared
to be decent matchups began picking up their play. As such, all
four important of Oakland’s top fantasy options only have
a Week 16 matchup against San Diego serving as a light at the end
of the tunnel.
What to watch for: Gordon is probably
doomed to the same fate as Latavius Murray since he plays the same
opponents over the next two weeks, only in a different order, and
probably has it worse since Woodhead will probably end up seeing
the bulk of playing time after the Chargers fall behind in each
contest. If there is any upside, owners of both Chargers’
backs can potentially look forward to fantasy-season ending matchups
against the Dolphins and Raiders. Gates is a candidate to finish
strong if he can continue to remain reasonably healthy, so I won’t
waste much time with him; his work in the red zone speaks for itself.
Johnson has settled into Keenan Allen’s high-target role and
been a pretty solid WR2 recently, recording at least eight targets
and seven receptions in each of the three games since he became
the lead receiver. I don’t expect either trend to continue
against Denver or Kansas City, but he is almost certainly going
to be worth a fantasy start in those weeks regardless. Inman enjoyed
his best game of the season last week against Jacksonville, turning
nine targets into five receptions and a touchdown. Inman is unlikely
to repeat that performance in 2015, although he is only one Johnson
injury away from being the top receiver for one of the game’s
best quarterbacks.
What to watch for: While HC Bruce
Arians and fantasy owners bemoan the loss of Chris Johnson, the
fact of the matter is CJ2K did not score a touchdown or average
more than 3.6 yards per carry in any of his last four games. Arians
may have reason to be concerned about David Johnson’s ball
security and current pass-blocking skills, but he has been ridiculously
productive anytime he’s been given even a few offensive touches.
With Stepfan Taylor serving as the team’s only other real
option at the moment, owners could be seeing one of a handful of
worthy candidates to become the
next Drew Bennett. Even better for the rookie, Ellington’s
turf toe makes him an unlikely candidate to contribute over the
next four weeks. David Johnson has proven to be a standout in the
passing game, meaning I also expect Palmer to finish with a flurry.
St. Louis will still be missing some key defensive pieces this week,
leaving Minnesota as the only matchup that I’d be a bit weary
of going forward. Fitzgerald, Floyd and Brown are going to be more
than just about any opponent can handle assuming they can all stay
healthy, so all three should be played regardless of matchup going
forward. Nelson is a definite wild-card, but has to be considered
a part-time deep-ball specialist at best right now that fits somewhere
around fourth or fifth in line for targets.
What to watch for: Gurley and Austin
are the only two Rams that 99 percent of the fantasy world cares
about, so will keep the discussion limited to those two. The best
way for opponents to keep Gurley from destroying a game plan is
getting out in front quickly like the Bengals did last week, so
another slow week could be in order for the rookie versus the Cardinals.
It doesn’t help matters that he’s lost most of his offensive
line or that his “breakout” came against Arizona, but
it is too early to write his fantasy obituary because of the talent
he possesses and the ability he has to make any run a scoring run.
Austin’s dual-threat ability keeps him in the WR3 discussion
simply because he is the rare receiver that doesn’t necessarily
need a capable quarterback in order to produce meaningful fantasy
points. Keenum is stretched as a starting quarterback to say the
least, so expect heavy doses of Gurley and Austin on the ground
any time Keenum is running the show.
What to watch for: Gabbert has done
something I thought was nearly impossible for him: live up to San
Francisco’s insistence that he is an Alex Smith-in-training.
He is relying heavily on his tight ends in the red zone and has
found a way to make Boldin relevant in tough matchups in a way that
Colin Kaepernick could not. He’s obviously still not a quarterback
I’m going to trust as even a matchup-based starter, but there
is hope for the rest of the skill position players where I didn’t
believe there was any a month ago. I don’t expect Carlos Hyde
to return the season, leaving Draughn as the featured back. In another
surprising yet pleasant development for the 49ers, the journeyman
running back has filled in admirably and probably earned himself
a backup role to Hyde next season; his workload should allow him
to be a low-end flex option. McDonald has entered the fantasy discussion
as well since becoming Gabbert’s favorite red-zone target.
He’s not going to be the second coming of Gary Barnidge, but
he has posted a touchdown and at least 65 yards receiving in the
last two weeks (at Seattle and versus Arizona), which should be
enough to earn some trust from owners hurting at the tight end position.
What to watch for: Since their Week
9 bye, the Seahawks are averaging 33.3 points (17.6 before). So
what gives? Part of the answer can be found in the fact that Seattle
has played three straight home games and benefited from two fairly
soft passing-game matchups, but the more likely explanation is that
Rawls gives the Seahawks more big-play ability out of the backfield
than Marshawn Lynch. Both “answers” figured to get tested
over the next two weeks as Seattle hits the road against two stout
run defenses that have kept opposing passing games in check lately.
The loss of Jimmy Graham should mean defenses can spend more time
taking Baldwin out of the equation, which probably means Kearse,
Lockett and Willson will probably sabotage each other’s ability
to be a starting fantasy option. Wilson accounted for one touchdown
in eight of his first nine games this season, but has thrown for
eight touchdowns in the last two games alone. I’m going to
chalk that up mostly to matchups and suggest he will only be a DFS
star one more time this season – Week 15 at home versus Cleveland.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
