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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Big Board: Kickers & Defense/Special Teams
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/19/14

PPR | .5 PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

As promised, let’s pay our respects to the kickers and defense/special teams units that help us decide our fantasy fates each and every season…once again, these are 15-game projections.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***Numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

 Kickers
Rk Player Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts XP FG
1 Matt Prater DEN 30 0.94 9.3 140 59 27
2 Mason Crosby GB 29 0.61 8.9 133 52 27
3 Stephen Gostkowski NE 30 0.57 8.8 132 45 29
4 Blair Walsh MIN 24 0.57 8.8 132 45 29
5 Phil Dawson SF 39 0.42 8.6 129 45 28
6 Adam Vinatieri IND 41 0.28 8.4 126 45 27
7 Shayne Graham NO 36 0.19 8.3 124 49 25
8 Robbie Gould CHI 32 0.19 8.3 124 49 25
9 Dan Bailey DAL 26 0.14 8.2 123 42 27
10 Steve Hauschka SEA 29 0.05 8.1 121 43 26
11 Matt Bryant ATL 39 0.05 8.1 121 43 26
12 Greg Zuerlein STL 26 0.00 8.0 120 39 27
13 Nick Novak SD 33 0.05 7.9 119 38 27
14 Jay Feely ARI 38 0.09 7.9 118 43 25
15 Nick Folk NYJ 28 0.14 7.8 117 33 28
16 Justin Tucker BAL 24 0.19 7.7 116 38 26
17 Alex Henery PHI 27 0.19 7.7 116 50 22
18 Shaun Suisham PIT 32 0.24 7.7 115 40 25
19 Nate Freese DET 24 0.33 7.5 113 50 21
20 Dan Carpenter BUF 28 0.42 7.4 111 36 25
21 Graham Gano CAR 27 0.47 7.3 110 41 23
22 Josh Scobee JAC 32 0.47 7.3 110 29 27
23 Ryan Succop KC 26 0.52 7.3 109 37 24
24 Josh Brown NYG 35 0.61 7.1 107 38 23
25 Caleb Sturgis MIA 25 0.66 7.1 106 34 24
26 Kai Forbath WAS 26 0.71 7.0 105 45 20
27 Sebastian Janikowski OAK 36 0.75 6.9 104 32 24
28 Connor Barth TB 28 0.85 6.8 102 30 24
29 Mike Nugent CIN 32 0.85 6.8 102 39 21
30 Maikon Bonani TEN 25 0.90 6.7 101 38 21
31 Randy Bullock HOU 23 0.99 6.6 99 36 21
32 Billy Cundiff CLE 34 1.37 6.1 91 28 21

And now the defenses…

Just to be clear, “TD” refers to the point total of the defensive or return scores…

Bonus determined by the following benchmarks:
10 points for shutout or held to 2 points
7 points if held from 3-6 points
4 points if held from 7-12 points
2 points if held from 13-16 points
1 points if held from 17-20 points
0 points if held from 21-28 points
-1 point if give up 29-34 points
-3 points if give up 35+ points

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk Team Value FPts/G FPts PA Sks INT Fum TD Bonus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 Seahawks 2.17 11.1 167 231 45 21 10 30 30
2 Broncos 1.84 10.7 160 296 49 19 12 30 19
3 Panthers 1.41 10.1 151 288 53 15 12 24 20
4 Rams 1.18 9.7 146 378 58 14 14 30 2
5 Saints 0.94 9.4 141 325 51 17 12 24 8
6 Patriots 0.85 9.3 139 302 47 21 11 18 10
7 49ers 0.61 8.9 134 294 34 17 11 30 14
8 Ravens 0.42 8.7 130 282 37 17 10 24 15
9 Chiefs 0.14 8.3 124 365 43 16 12 24 1
10 Bengals 0.14 8.3 124 332 38 17 9 24 10
11 Cardinals 0.05 8.1 122 347 37 18 10 24 5
12 Bears 0.00 8.1 121 398 37 17 11 30 -2
13 Packers 0.09 7.9 119 389 42 17 10 24 -1
14 Browns 0.14 7.9 118 309 38 14 9 24 10
15 Colts 0.38 7.5 113 373 39 14 10 24 2
16 Vikings 0.61 7.2 108 378 40 12 11 24 -2
17 Bucs 0.75 7.0 105 362 37 16 10 12 4
18 Bills 0.80 6.9 104 394 48 14 7 18 -4
19 Steelers 0.85 6.9 103 308 33 9 10 18 14
20 Texans 0.94 6.7 101 339 38 8 11 18 7
21 Eagles 0.99 6.7 100 389 34 17 9 18 -4
22 Jaguars 1.04 6.6 99 353 38 14 10 12 1
23 Chargers 1.18 6.4 96 377 36 11 10 12 6
24 Titans 1.23 6.3 95 378 33 11 11 24 -6
25 Giants 1.23 6.3 95 418 30 16 8 24 -7
26 Lions 1.32 6.2 93 399 34 13 10 18 -5
27 Falcons 1.70 5.7 85 387 29 10 9 18 0
28 Redskins 1.79 5.5 83 428 32 12 8 18 -7
29 Dolphins 1.98 5.3 79 402 37 11 6 12 -4
30 Raiders 1.98 5.3 79 439 37 7 12 18 -14
31 Jets 2.36 4.7 71 393 32 11 8 6 -5
32 Cowboys 3.06 3.7 56 484 26 9 10 12 -20

Like I have for the past few years, I’m going to provide a list of second- and third-string players who impressed me in the previous week of preseason action. Since I don’t make it a habit to watch all 16 exhibition games in the final week of the preseason, I will start with Week 1’s “standouts” this week and continue on over the next two weeks. This collection of names isn’t so much about who lit up the box score, but more about skill-position players who did their job well or impressed me. If nothing else, don’t hesitate to queue these players on your dynasty watch list (in no particular order):

Week 1: Juwan Thompson, RB Denver; Branden Oliver, RB San Diego; Matt Scott, QB Cincinnati; Logan Thomas, QB Arizona; Brian Tyms, WR New England; Jimmy Garoppolo, QB New England

Next: PPR Big Board | .5 PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.