Depending on your perspective, the rate at which jobs are bandied
about in the NFL can be considered refreshing or dizzying. Players
are mostly judged on performance and promotions/raises tend to eventually
come to those that earn it, which is about all we could ever ask
for in our own jobs. On the other hand, a team can be forced to
go three- or four-deep into its roster by the end of the season.
Starters at the beginning of the year can fall down to third-string
and still find their way back into the lineup before season’s
end or they can find themselves unemployed.
Each year, it seems like I enter Opening Week believing this
will be the year in which I will draft a low-maintenance set of
teams in which I can pluck the best player that my blind-bidding
bucks will allow me to afford each week. While I am typically
happy with the players I get off of waivers during the course
of each year, these past few seasons have proven to me how infrequently
an owner is able to draft a set-it-and-forget-it type of team.
Change stops for no one and it certainly doesn’t wait for
fantasy owners, who are almost constantly in a state of reaction
by this time of the season. Week 15 is about the time where some
of the worst teams in the league have decided to play for next
year – assuming they haven’t made that decision already
– while a few others are about to join them over the next
week or two. Depth-chart movement and injuries also really come
into play at this time of the year as some players simply begin
to wear down. Whether owners want to acknowledge it or not, virtually
every change a NFL team makes will create some kind of ripple
effect on the rest of the players on the offense – a phenomenon
that doesn’t tend to get the kind of attention it truly
deserves at any point of the year, but particularly at this point
of the season.
With that in mind, let’s take a deeper look at a number
of the less obvious players that have not only seen their values
change dramatically due to fantasy season-ending injuries (potential
in some cases) or depth-chart changes over the week or so, but
are also worthy of consideration in deeper leagues over the final
two weeks of the fantasy season.
What happened: Derek
Anderson was named the starting quarterback for at least Week
15 following Cam
Newton’s car accident on Tuesday.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy:
This is obviously not an open-and-shut case on multiple levels.
For one, there is no guarantee that Newton will not return next
week to face Cleveland, meaning Newton is neither a realistic
starting candidate nor a droppable player at the moment. A second
point is as solid as Anderson is as a backup – some league
executives believe that he is the best backup quarterback in the
game today – there is only one Newton. Although his inconsistency
this year will reflect poorly on him when it is time to draft
in 2015, consider how remarkable it is that Newton has been able
to endure what he has to this point (terrible offensive line,
rib/ankle injuries, etc.). The upside for Anderson is that his
second start will come against the team he made his first start
of the season against – the Tampa Bay Bucs. As we all know,
we cannot simply pencil in the journeyman quarterback for 230
yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay just because that is
what he did versus the Bucs in Week 1, although that is a reasonable
expectation. While he is a passable option for Newton owners this
week, I don’t believe he will be so in Week 16 against the
Cleveland Browns.
How it affects the supporting cast:
I trumpeted Jonathan
Stewart as a potential fantasy playoff stud weeks ago, but
I made that statement assuming Newton would be healthy. I don’t
foresee him repeating his Week 14 success without the threat that
Newton poses as a runner, so hoping is Stewart anything more than
a low-end flex would be a mistake in my opinion. Thankfully, most
owners counting on Kelvin
Benjamin or Greg
Olsen should not experience much of a drop-off, if any. Because
Anderson is a pocket quarterback, there is a fair chance that
he’ll be more inclined to force a few more balls into the Panthers’
top two passing-game options rather than tuck it and run like
Newton is prone to do when he is able. Olsen thrived in the Week
1 meeting (8-83-1 on 11 targets) against a Bucs’ defense that
has defended the tight end pretty well this season. Benjamin (6-92-1
on eight targets) was also quite successful and it is safe to
say the Tampa Bay isn’t any more equipped to handle his size now
than they were before.
Manziel at QB increases the volatility of
Josh Gordon
What happened: After weeks of ineffective
play, Brian
Hoyer was benched for Johnny
Manziel.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Hoyer deserves kudos
for holding off Manziel as long as he did. In some ways, this
situation is almost the polar opposite of the Newton-Anderson
tradeoff in that the dual-threat young buck overtakes the less-mobile
savvy veteran, although no one should assume that Manziel is going
to take the league by storm over the final three weeks of the
regular season. Manziel had his moments in limited duty against
Buffalo in Week 12 and looked to be sharp as a short-to-intermediate
passer, but the concern with him will likely always remain that
he is loose with the ball and not exactly built to take much of
a pounding. Manziel is listed here because of his willingness
to run gives him a safe floor, not because a plethora of owners
were starting Hoyer. Despite having two matchups I believe he’ll
be able to exploit next year (Cincinnati and Carolina) over the
next two weeks, I’d be weary of starting Manziel a streaming
option given the likelihood that OC Kyle Shanahan or HC Mike Pettine
– if not both – will favor a run-heavy, ball-control
game plan.
How it affects the supporting cast: College football fans and
avid Manziel supporters will probably harken back to last year
and say if he and Mike Evans could make such beautiful music together,
why can’t he do the same with Josh Gordon? Well, there are
plenty of problems with that kind of thinking, which assumes that
Gordon wasn’t the least bit responsible for the Hoyer benching.
A strong case could be made that Gordon and Jordan Cameron will
benefit immensely from Manziel’s promotion (ability to extend
plays) and probably just as many reasons why they won’t
(willingness to tuck it and run quickly if the first look isn’t
available). I believe an ideal scenario in Pettine and Shanahan’s
minds would be about 25 passes and 5-8 “safe” runs
for Manziel, with the defense as well as Isaiah Crowell and Terrance
West determining the outcome of the game. It’s a plan that
worked to perfection in the Browns’ win over the Bengals
in Week 10 and one that will be easier to execute this time around
because Manziel brings the backside run threat that Hoyer doesn’t.
In short, I suspect that Manziel increases the effectiveness of
the ground game. At the same time, I believe both the upside and
volatility of Cameron and Gordon increase as well.
What happened: Zach
Mettenberger (shoulder) aggravated an injury he suffered in
Week 13, opening the door for the possibility Jake
Locker closes the season out as the starter in Tennessee
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: The motivation for
this week’s story idea came as a result of playing matchups
at quarterback in my most important league to overcome Newton’s
woes and Mettenberger was going to be my choice to take me through
the playoffs, at least until his initial injury and Kendall Wright’s
broken hand caused me to ditch that plan after one week. Although
the Titans’ offense has been atrocious at times in 2014,
the LSU product was at least able to do enough in garbage time
to post reasonable low-end QB1 numbers most weeks and stay healthy
– two things I’m not confident Locker has going for
him. Tennessee has a fairly exploitable schedule the rest of the
way, but I’d be surprised if the Titans topped two touchdowns
in any of their last three games. Factor that kind of low scoring
upside with Locker’s propensity for injury and owners have
little choice but to ignore Tennessee’s quarterback going
forward.
How it affects the supporting cast:
I’d consider a fully-healthy Wright as a WR3 in PPR leagues and
Delanie
Walker as a low-end TE1 with Mettenberger under center. I
will not do that for Locker, who really has never been able to
stay healthy long enough to work on the accuracy concerns inside
the pocket that have dogged him since his college days. Of course,
Wright is not 100 percent and Tennessee’s next option at receiver
is Nate
Washington, who is more of a deep threat than a chain-mover.
Additionally, if Locker does get hurt during the game, his backup
is Charlie
Whitehurst. Outside of Walker, there is no Titan I would want
anywhere close to my starting lineup over the final two weeks
of the fantasy regular season.
What happened: Kerwynn
Williams – and not Marion
Grice or Stepfan
Taylor – stepped up after Andre
Ellington went on IR with hernia surgery.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: It would be nice if
we could simply push Williams into Ellington’s old 20.6
touches-per-game workload, but that isn’t likely to be the
case for two reasons: 1) the Cardinals have said as much and 2)
the Cardinals face the Rams on a short week on Thursday and the
Seahawks during fantasy championship week. There may not be two
teams playing better defense than St. Louis and Seattle right
now and it doesn’t help matters that Carson Palmer isn’t
coming back to get defenses to respect the passing game again.
Although he didn’t get a chance to show it in Week 14, Williams
is a capable receiver out of the backfield going back to his college
days and has the speed necessary to go the distance on any play,
helping his cause for low-end flex consideration going forward.
How it affects the supporting cast:
A threat in the running game almost always helps the passing game,
so it is possible that Drew
Stanton, Michael
Floyd, Larry
Fitzgerald and John
Brown all get a small boost here. As noted above, however,
the schedule is such that any boost any Arizona quarterback or
receiver would get from Williams emulating Ellington would be
negated and hardly worth hanging fantasy title hopes on this year.
The problem here is not whether or not Williams could produce
in a favorable matchup, but rather Stanton’s inability to be anything
more than a stopgap quarterback.
What happened: Denard
Robinson (mid-foot sprain) was placed on IR, leaving Toby
Gerhart, Jordan
Todman and maybe even Storm
Johnson as the most likely players to share touches.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: When one door closes,
another one opens? It would be nice if the return of Gerhart to
the starting lineup meant he could fulfill the high-volume promise
he had in August, but it doesn’t – at least not yet.
Gerhart has a chance to reclaim the job he never really got a
chance to show he belonged in following his Week 1 foot injury,
but is now as healthy as he has been all season and the results
in limited time over the last three games (57 yards on 14 carries
and five catches for 35 yards) seem to back it up. Todman’s
running style most closely resembles Robinson’s of the three
remaining healthy backs, although Jacksonville appears to be convinced
he is a complementary back at best. Johnson hasn’t seen
a touch since Week 7, making it highly unlikely he will see significant
work.
How it affects the supporting cast: It really doesn’t,
unless the Jags want to use the final three games to get a sense
of how much they want to depend on Gerhart in 2015, in which case
the Jacksonville’s passing game would lose the one thing
it had going for it - volume. Losing Robinson puts more pressure
on Blake Bortles to carry the offense – extra weight the
rookie doesn’t need at this point of his career. The trio
of Allen Hurns, Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee has tallied eight
targets in each of the last two weeks and are a good bet to continue
to see that kind of volume with a dynamic presence in the backfield.
I might be willing to use a Jaguar as a desperation flex play
next week at home against Tennessee, but I wouldn’t dare
try it this week on the road versus Baltimore – even against
the Ravens’ struggling secondary.
What happened: Julio
Jones (hip) injured himself during the Atlanta Falcons’ comeback
attempt on Monday Night Football in Week 14. Roddy
White (ankle) appeared to be far from 100 percent, leaving
open the possibility that Harry
Douglas could be the lead receiver in Week 15.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Injuries are getting
to be an all-too-familiar theme in Atlanta, which cannot seem
to keep its offensive line or receivers healthy long enough to
follow through on its vision of building the high-flying offense
that helped the team earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC in 2012. Jones
looks doubtful for this week’s dream matchup against the
Pittsburgh Steelers and should probably be considered questionable
at best for a similar matchup in Week 16 versus the New Orleans
Saints. White supposedly did not suffer a setback on MNF, but
he didn’t exactly inspire much confidence with the way he
was running by the end of the game. As a result, Douglas is on
the cusp of posting meaningful receiving totals in PPR leagues
for the second straight season.
How it affects the supporting cast: Matt Ryan has proven in years
past that he can cope without Jones or White, but that was in
large part because he still had Tony Gonzalez. If the seventh-year
signal-caller is forced to rely heavily on a hobbled White and
Douglas over the next two weeks, there’s a pretty fair chance
that Ryan-quarterbacked fantasy teams still remaining won’t
get much production from him despite two very solid matchups.
More of the weight would fall on to Steven Jackson, who is neither
quite as done as most have made him out to be nor at the stage
of his career where can make up for offensive line shortcomings
AND carry an offense. The Falcons desperately need either Jones
or White to get healthy by Week 16 or Atlanta could blow a grand
opportunity to make the playoffs in a year it has no business
being in the race.
What happened: Brandon
Marshall (ribs, lung) is out for the season after taking a
knee to the back in the Chicago Bears’ Week 14 loss to the Dallas
Cowboys, paving the way for second-year deep threat Marquess
Wilson to take his spot in the starting lineup.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Marshall’s latest
injury caps what has been a wildly inconsistent year for him,
although a fair amount of the blame for that falls on quarterback
Jay Cutler. At any rate, Wilson can give Chicago something it
hasn’t had all season thanks to Alshon Jeffery’s lingering
hamstring injury – a receiver that can threaten the defense
vertically. Given the fact that Wilson is still growing into his
body (6-4, 207), it is probably a bit much to ask him to incorporate
much of Marshall’s chain-moving ways into his game at this
point. However, Wilson’s ability to get deep might allow
him to take on some of the responsibilities Jeffery initially
enjoyed last season, while a less-than-100 percent Jeffery slips
a bit more into Marshall’s former role. For all of Cutler’s
faults, few have ever questioned his arm strength and Wilson gives
him a shot to utilize that for the rest of the season.
How it affects the supporting cast: Jeffery’s overall production
should stay roughly the same – perhaps he will get a slight
bump up in PPR leagues – whereas Wilson is a WR4 with tremendous
upside if the Bears continue their pass-happy ways. While it is
possible Jeffery becomes the new Marshall, however, it is more
likely that Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte receive even more
short throws than before – a bit of a scary thought since
both players have already shattered their previous career high
in catches. Another option – and probably the most sensible
one – would be to rely more heavily on the running game,
whether that means increasing Forte’s carries or allowing
rookie Ka’Deem Carey to take them. I can’t imagine
the loss of Marshall will be good for Cutler, although a matchup
with New Orleans in Week 15 could make it appear as if he won’t
be missed if the personnel changes the Saints made this week fail
to inspire a better defensive effort.
What happened: Percy
Harvin (ankle) proved again last week he is exactly what he
has been throughout his six-year NFL career – an incredibly talented,
yet injury-prone playmaker. After tearing up the Minnesota Vikings
for six catches, 124 yards and a touchdown, his status for this
Week 15 – and perhaps the rest of the season – is up in the air.
What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Jeremy Kerley has been
very good in spurts, but he is stretched as anything more than
a real-life WR3. Even though the Jets looked good at times last
week against Minnesota, there simply isn’t a receiver on
this team that owners should trust in the final two weeks of the
fantasy playoffs. Regardless of whether Harvin or Kerley plays,
expect a run-heavy game plan over the next two weeks against the
Titans and New England Patriots, which obviously takes any Jet
involved in the passing game off the map.
How it affects the supporting cast: In theory, Eric Decker benefits
the most, although there really is no telling from week to week
if his owners will receive even average quarterbacking from Geno
Smith and/or Michael Vick. As stated in the paragraph above, the
Jets are very likely to utilize a run-heavy attack against Tennessee
this week because the Titans struggle to stop it and in Week 16
versus the Patriots because the ground game will be the only way
New York will have a chance to hang with New England.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |