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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


The Changing Tide
All Out Blitz: Volume 89
12/11/14

Depending on your perspective, the rate at which jobs are bandied about in the NFL can be considered refreshing or dizzying. Players are mostly judged on performance and promotions/raises tend to eventually come to those that earn it, which is about all we could ever ask for in our own jobs. On the other hand, a team can be forced to go three- or four-deep into its roster by the end of the season. Starters at the beginning of the year can fall down to third-string and still find their way back into the lineup before season’s end or they can find themselves unemployed.

Each year, it seems like I enter Opening Week believing this will be the year in which I will draft a low-maintenance set of teams in which I can pluck the best player that my blind-bidding bucks will allow me to afford each week. While I am typically happy with the players I get off of waivers during the course of each year, these past few seasons have proven to me how infrequently an owner is able to draft a set-it-and-forget-it type of team.

Change stops for no one and it certainly doesn’t wait for fantasy owners, who are almost constantly in a state of reaction by this time of the season. Week 15 is about the time where some of the worst teams in the league have decided to play for next year – assuming they haven’t made that decision already – while a few others are about to join them over the next week or two. Depth-chart movement and injuries also really come into play at this time of the year as some players simply begin to wear down. Whether owners want to acknowledge it or not, virtually every change a NFL team makes will create some kind of ripple effect on the rest of the players on the offense – a phenomenon that doesn’t tend to get the kind of attention it truly deserves at any point of the year, but particularly at this point of the season.

With that in mind, let’s take a deeper look at a number of the less obvious players that have not only seen their values change dramatically due to fantasy season-ending injuries (potential in some cases) or depth-chart changes over the week or so, but are also worthy of consideration in deeper leagues over the final two weeks of the fantasy season.


What happened: Derek Anderson was named the starting quarterback for at least Week 15 following Cam Newton’s car accident on Tuesday.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: This is obviously not an open-and-shut case on multiple levels. For one, there is no guarantee that Newton will not return next week to face Cleveland, meaning Newton is neither a realistic starting candidate nor a droppable player at the moment. A second point is as solid as Anderson is as a backup – some league executives believe that he is the best backup quarterback in the game today – there is only one Newton. Although his inconsistency this year will reflect poorly on him when it is time to draft in 2015, consider how remarkable it is that Newton has been able to endure what he has to this point (terrible offensive line, rib/ankle injuries, etc.). The upside for Anderson is that his second start will come against the team he made his first start of the season against – the Tampa Bay Bucs. As we all know, we cannot simply pencil in the journeyman quarterback for 230 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay just because that is what he did versus the Bucs in Week 1, although that is a reasonable expectation. While he is a passable option for Newton owners this week, I don’t believe he will be so in Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns.

How it affects the supporting cast: I trumpeted Jonathan Stewart as a potential fantasy playoff stud weeks ago, but I made that statement assuming Newton would be healthy. I don’t foresee him repeating his Week 14 success without the threat that Newton poses as a runner, so hoping is Stewart anything more than a low-end flex would be a mistake in my opinion. Thankfully, most owners counting on Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen should not experience much of a drop-off, if any. Because Anderson is a pocket quarterback, there is a fair chance that he’ll be more inclined to force a few more balls into the Panthers’ top two passing-game options rather than tuck it and run like Newton is prone to do when he is able. Olsen thrived in the Week 1 meeting (8-83-1 on 11 targets) against a Bucs’ defense that has defended the tight end pretty well this season. Benjamin (6-92-1 on eight targets) was also quite successful and it is safe to say the Tampa Bay isn’t any more equipped to handle his size now than they were before.

Johnny Manziel

Manziel at QB increases the volatility of Josh Gordon

What happened: After weeks of ineffective play, Brian Hoyer was benched for Johnny Manziel.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Hoyer deserves kudos for holding off Manziel as long as he did. In some ways, this situation is almost the polar opposite of the Newton-Anderson tradeoff in that the dual-threat young buck overtakes the less-mobile savvy veteran, although no one should assume that Manziel is going to take the league by storm over the final three weeks of the regular season. Manziel had his moments in limited duty against Buffalo in Week 12 and looked to be sharp as a short-to-intermediate passer, but the concern with him will likely always remain that he is loose with the ball and not exactly built to take much of a pounding. Manziel is listed here because of his willingness to run gives him a safe floor, not because a plethora of owners were starting Hoyer. Despite having two matchups I believe he’ll be able to exploit next year (Cincinnati and Carolina) over the next two weeks, I’d be weary of starting Manziel a streaming option given the likelihood that OC Kyle Shanahan or HC Mike Pettine – if not both – will favor a run-heavy, ball-control game plan.

How it affects the supporting cast: College football fans and avid Manziel supporters will probably harken back to last year and say if he and Mike Evans could make such beautiful music together, why can’t he do the same with Josh Gordon? Well, there are plenty of problems with that kind of thinking, which assumes that Gordon wasn’t the least bit responsible for the Hoyer benching. A strong case could be made that Gordon and Jordan Cameron will benefit immensely from Manziel’s promotion (ability to extend plays) and probably just as many reasons why they won’t (willingness to tuck it and run quickly if the first look isn’t available). I believe an ideal scenario in Pettine and Shanahan’s minds would be about 25 passes and 5-8 “safe” runs for Manziel, with the defense as well as Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West determining the outcome of the game. It’s a plan that worked to perfection in the Browns’ win over the Bengals in Week 10 and one that will be easier to execute this time around because Manziel brings the backside run threat that Hoyer doesn’t. In short, I suspect that Manziel increases the effectiveness of the ground game. At the same time, I believe both the upside and volatility of Cameron and Gordon increase as well.


What happened: Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) aggravated an injury he suffered in Week 13, opening the door for the possibility Jake Locker closes the season out as the starter in Tennessee

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: The motivation for this week’s story idea came as a result of playing matchups at quarterback in my most important league to overcome Newton’s woes and Mettenberger was going to be my choice to take me through the playoffs, at least until his initial injury and Kendall Wright’s broken hand caused me to ditch that plan after one week. Although the Titans’ offense has been atrocious at times in 2014, the LSU product was at least able to do enough in garbage time to post reasonable low-end QB1 numbers most weeks and stay healthy – two things I’m not confident Locker has going for him. Tennessee has a fairly exploitable schedule the rest of the way, but I’d be surprised if the Titans topped two touchdowns in any of their last three games. Factor that kind of low scoring upside with Locker’s propensity for injury and owners have little choice but to ignore Tennessee’s quarterback going forward.

How it affects the supporting cast: I’d consider a fully-healthy Wright as a WR3 in PPR leagues and Delanie Walker as a low-end TE1 with Mettenberger under center. I will not do that for Locker, who really has never been able to stay healthy long enough to work on the accuracy concerns inside the pocket that have dogged him since his college days. Of course, Wright is not 100 percent and Tennessee’s next option at receiver is Nate Washington, who is more of a deep threat than a chain-mover. Additionally, if Locker does get hurt during the game, his backup is Charlie Whitehurst. Outside of Walker, there is no Titan I would want anywhere close to my starting lineup over the final two weeks of the fantasy regular season.


What happened: Kerwynn Williams – and not Marion Grice or Stepfan Taylor – stepped up after Andre Ellington went on IR with hernia surgery.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: It would be nice if we could simply push Williams into Ellington’s old 20.6 touches-per-game workload, but that isn’t likely to be the case for two reasons: 1) the Cardinals have said as much and 2) the Cardinals face the Rams on a short week on Thursday and the Seahawks during fantasy championship week. There may not be two teams playing better defense than St. Louis and Seattle right now and it doesn’t help matters that Carson Palmer isn’t coming back to get defenses to respect the passing game again. Although he didn’t get a chance to show it in Week 14, Williams is a capable receiver out of the backfield going back to his college days and has the speed necessary to go the distance on any play, helping his cause for low-end flex consideration going forward.

How it affects the supporting cast: A threat in the running game almost always helps the passing game, so it is possible that Drew Stanton, Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown all get a small boost here. As noted above, however, the schedule is such that any boost any Arizona quarterback or receiver would get from Williams emulating Ellington would be negated and hardly worth hanging fantasy title hopes on this year. The problem here is not whether or not Williams could produce in a favorable matchup, but rather Stanton’s inability to be anything more than a stopgap quarterback.


What happened: Denard Robinson (mid-foot sprain) was placed on IR, leaving Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman and maybe even Storm Johnson as the most likely players to share touches.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: When one door closes, another one opens? It would be nice if the return of Gerhart to the starting lineup meant he could fulfill the high-volume promise he had in August, but it doesn’t – at least not yet. Gerhart has a chance to reclaim the job he never really got a chance to show he belonged in following his Week 1 foot injury, but is now as healthy as he has been all season and the results in limited time over the last three games (57 yards on 14 carries and five catches for 35 yards) seem to back it up. Todman’s running style most closely resembles Robinson’s of the three remaining healthy backs, although Jacksonville appears to be convinced he is a complementary back at best. Johnson hasn’t seen a touch since Week 7, making it highly unlikely he will see significant work.

How it affects the supporting cast: It really doesn’t, unless the Jags want to use the final three games to get a sense of how much they want to depend on Gerhart in 2015, in which case the Jacksonville’s passing game would lose the one thing it had going for it - volume. Losing Robinson puts more pressure on Blake Bortles to carry the offense – extra weight the rookie doesn’t need at this point of his career. The trio of Allen Hurns, Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee has tallied eight targets in each of the last two weeks and are a good bet to continue to see that kind of volume with a dynamic presence in the backfield. I might be willing to use a Jaguar as a desperation flex play next week at home against Tennessee, but I wouldn’t dare try it this week on the road versus Baltimore – even against the Ravens’ struggling secondary.


What happened: Julio Jones (hip) injured himself during the Atlanta Falcons’ comeback attempt on Monday Night Football in Week 14. Roddy White (ankle) appeared to be far from 100 percent, leaving open the possibility that Harry Douglas could be the lead receiver in Week 15.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Injuries are getting to be an all-too-familiar theme in Atlanta, which cannot seem to keep its offensive line or receivers healthy long enough to follow through on its vision of building the high-flying offense that helped the team earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC in 2012. Jones looks doubtful for this week’s dream matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers and should probably be considered questionable at best for a similar matchup in Week 16 versus the New Orleans Saints. White supposedly did not suffer a setback on MNF, but he didn’t exactly inspire much confidence with the way he was running by the end of the game. As a result, Douglas is on the cusp of posting meaningful receiving totals in PPR leagues for the second straight season.

How it affects the supporting cast: Matt Ryan has proven in years past that he can cope without Jones or White, but that was in large part because he still had Tony Gonzalez. If the seventh-year signal-caller is forced to rely heavily on a hobbled White and Douglas over the next two weeks, there’s a pretty fair chance that Ryan-quarterbacked fantasy teams still remaining won’t get much production from him despite two very solid matchups. More of the weight would fall on to Steven Jackson, who is neither quite as done as most have made him out to be nor at the stage of his career where can make up for offensive line shortcomings AND carry an offense. The Falcons desperately need either Jones or White to get healthy by Week 16 or Atlanta could blow a grand opportunity to make the playoffs in a year it has no business being in the race.


What happened: Brandon Marshall (ribs, lung) is out for the season after taking a knee to the back in the Chicago Bears’ Week 14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, paving the way for second-year deep threat Marquess Wilson to take his spot in the starting lineup.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Marshall’s latest injury caps what has been a wildly inconsistent year for him, although a fair amount of the blame for that falls on quarterback Jay Cutler. At any rate, Wilson can give Chicago something it hasn’t had all season thanks to Alshon Jeffery’s lingering hamstring injury – a receiver that can threaten the defense vertically. Given the fact that Wilson is still growing into his body (6-4, 207), it is probably a bit much to ask him to incorporate much of Marshall’s chain-moving ways into his game at this point. However, Wilson’s ability to get deep might allow him to take on some of the responsibilities Jeffery initially enjoyed last season, while a less-than-100 percent Jeffery slips a bit more into Marshall’s former role. For all of Cutler’s faults, few have ever questioned his arm strength and Wilson gives him a shot to utilize that for the rest of the season.

How it affects the supporting cast: Jeffery’s overall production should stay roughly the same – perhaps he will get a slight bump up in PPR leagues – whereas Wilson is a WR4 with tremendous upside if the Bears continue their pass-happy ways. While it is possible Jeffery becomes the new Marshall, however, it is more likely that Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte receive even more short throws than before – a bit of a scary thought since both players have already shattered their previous career high in catches. Another option – and probably the most sensible one – would be to rely more heavily on the running game, whether that means increasing Forte’s carries or allowing rookie Ka’Deem Carey to take them. I can’t imagine the loss of Marshall will be good for Cutler, although a matchup with New Orleans in Week 15 could make it appear as if he won’t be missed if the personnel changes the Saints made this week fail to inspire a better defensive effort.


What happened: Percy Harvin (ankle) proved again last week he is exactly what he has been throughout his six-year NFL career – an incredibly talented, yet injury-prone playmaker. After tearing up the Minnesota Vikings for six catches, 124 yards and a touchdown, his status for this Week 15 – and perhaps the rest of the season – is up in the air.

What it means for the new guy in fantasy: Jeremy Kerley has been very good in spurts, but he is stretched as anything more than a real-life WR3. Even though the Jets looked good at times last week against Minnesota, there simply isn’t a receiver on this team that owners should trust in the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Regardless of whether Harvin or Kerley plays, expect a run-heavy game plan over the next two weeks against the Titans and New England Patriots, which obviously takes any Jet involved in the passing game off the map.

How it affects the supporting cast: In theory, Eric Decker benefits the most, although there really is no telling from week to week if his owners will receive even average quarterbacking from Geno Smith and/or Michael Vick. As stated in the paragraph above, the Jets are very likely to utilize a run-heavy attack against Tennessee this week because the Titans struggle to stop it and in Week 16 versus the Patriots because the ground game will be the only way New York will have a chance to hang with New England.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.