I consider myself a man of the people, so when the inquiring minds
of the fantasy community ask for something, I try my best to deliver.
One of the most well-received preseason pieces I do each summer
is the Red Zone Report.
For those unfamiliar with it, I do a team-by-team breakdown of
each team’s activity from the previous season and try to
provide some insight into how it affects the upcoming season.
Last week, I was asked to do a midseason version of it and it
makes perfect sense to do so. While I can’t use the same
32-team format that I do for the preseason piece due to the regular-season
time crunch, doing a version that gives owners an idea where Wide Receivers,
Wide Receivers, wide receivers and tight ends stands in relation
to his peers at the position isn’t nearly as time consuming
(and is probably more digestible anyway).
Here is the key to all the abbreviations you will see in the
tables below:
Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone
carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington
secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he
had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone
targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald
secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning
he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone
reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception
| **** Sorted by targets, then by ReTD |
QBs
| RBs | WRs | TEs |
Does size help a receiver excel in the red zone? I think there is
plenty of evidence to suggest that it does. However, I’d argue
there is one factor that usually can’t be measured until well
into the season that is more important: the degree to which a quarterback
and/or offensive coordinator believes that receiver is his team’s
best red-zone option. The usual suspects top the most-targeted list
(Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson), but as Brown,
Randall Cobb and Mike Wallace prove, the red zone is not just a place
for giants.
Much like LeSean McCoy above, Andre Johnson is not lacking for
an opportunity. With the same number of red-zone targets as Wallace
and two more than the likes of Dez Bryant and Kelvin Benjamin, it
would seem that Johnson’s should be doing a bit better than
1-for-12 inside the 20. It is every bit as bad for Reuben Randle,
who is 2-for-14 with his red-zone chances. While the former’s
problems can probably be attributed to the quality of his quarterbacking
(Ryan Fitzpatrick was completing 48.3 percent of his red-zone passes
before his bye-week demotion), the latter probably only has himself
to blame as Eli Manning is completing 60 percent of the same throws.
In Johnson’s case, let’s hope the promotion of Ryan
Mallett either frees up Johnson downfield the same way Case Keenum
did for a short while last season or the former Patriot backup shows
he has more touch than he has been given credit for in his career.
As for Randle, he has been unable to take the bull by the horns
despite the season-ending injury to Victor Cruz, which has opened
the door for Odell Beckham Jr. to emerge as the top receiver in
New York.
Speaking of rookies like Beckham, I was stunned to see how many
are among the leaders in red-zone receiving scores. Jordan
Matthews has really only been a factor in three games this season,
yet is tied for third with Dez
Bryant and Brandon
Marshall for red-zone touchdowns. Just as impressively, Matthews
has as many red-zone targets as Jeremy
Maclin! Martavis
Bryant is in a similar spot in Pittsburgh, turning all four
of his targets into scores. Sammy
Watkins has as many touchdowns as Nelson and Demaryius
Thomas despite 10 and 11 fewer targets, respectively, while
Beckham has the identical target and TD numbers as Watkins despite
missing the first month of the season. Kelvin Benjamin is also in
the three-or-more red-zone score mix himself. Mike
Evans has been on a tear lately, although all three of his touchdowns
over the last two weeks have come from just outside the 20 (24,
24 and 22 yards), obviously depressing his red-zone numbers quite
a bit. Jarvis
Landry, who has started to emerge as the Dolphins’ second option
in the passing game recently, has the identical target and TD numbers
of DeAndre
Hopkins – with the key difference being the rookie has caught
all of his red-zone looks.
On the other end of the spectrum are fantasy superstars such as
Julio
Jones and A.J.
Green. Although both have fought through injury (and, in Green’s
case, missed time), there is no rational explanation as to why the
two have combined for one less red-zone target than Hakeem
Nicks. One might think that Roddy
White and Mohamed
Sanu are benefiting as a result, but White only has one more
target than Jones (5-4) and Sanu has only scored on one of his nine
targets. For more perspective, Calvin
Johnson has only been healthy for four games this year and has
one fewer target than Jones and Green combined. And there is also
the curious case of Megatron’s teammate Golden
Tate, who has five red-zone looks and one TD inside the 20 all
season long. (I guess he’s a little bit more than a possession receiver
after all, eh?)
QBs
| RBs | WRs | TEs
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
