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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Projections - AFC & NFC North
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/23/13

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

One unintentional benefit of starting my projections later than just about every other writer is that I don’t spend my entire summer trumpeting the cause of a certain player or group of players. In this business, two easy ways to go south fast are to: 1) fold under the avalanche of public opinion and 2) be unwilling to change your initial impression of a player. To that second point, there is a social psychology paradigm called “effort justification” that asserts people have a tendency to attribute a greater value (greater than the objective value) to an outcome they had to put effort into acquiring or achieving. For the purposes of this article, it is all too easy to fall into the trap of moving a player up or down a board when you’ve had the entire spring and summer to ponder how you feel about him, discuss his merits or listen to the talking heads on television tell you how you should feel about him. Before you know it, you’ve invested enough emotional cache into said player that you feel as if you have little choice but to stand your ground. There’s a pretty good chance that if you were a bit down on a player back in late May and spent more than just a few minutes rationalizing to others why he is going to bust this season, you are probably even more convinced of it now. In other words, you are almost compelled to justify your effort into his “bust campaign”.

In no way am I suggesting that I haven’t been or won’t be guilty of this myself because, by the time I have reached the projection phase of my PMAs, I have typed at least few hundred words about most of the players that will have some degree of impact in fantasy this season. However, I usually make it a habit to remind readers or listeners that I won’t truly know how I feel about a player until I am done projecting all eight divisions and start stacking up my Big Board. Obviously, I enter this process higher on some players than others, but I am often surprised during the course of these week-to-week projections that my initial impression doesn’t match up with the numbers I project for him – good or bad. I think the fact that analyzing the matchup helps keep me honest is a good thing.

On the downside (and it is a small downside, relatively speaking), I’m not quite done with my projections – and thus, have yet to start my Big Board – each year when I am asked to participate in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) “Pros vs. Joes” competition. Nevertheless, it is a great honor to take part in the challenge and something I look forward to each year. (Feel free to take a look at the results from Sunday’s draft by clicking “Draft” under “League” near the top of the page.) In this 26-round Draftmaster-style, best-ball format where owners’ only move of the season is drafting their teams, I believe I drafted my best team in the three years I have been associated with this event. The key differences in this league from the ones in which I typically play are that tight ends receive 1.5 points per reception and passing touchdowns are worth four points.

Last week, I kicked off my fifth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. This week, I turn my attention to the North as we continue our march to the first Big Board of the season.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2013.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT bye CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE
QB Joe Flacco 28 17.8 17.8 267.7 267.7 3855 280 255 280 245 235 330 170 235 295 265 195 200 270 295 305
TD 22 1 2 0 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 0 1 1 3 1
INT 11 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0
Ru Yards 35 0 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 5 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ray Rice 26 19 14.7 285 221 1110 80 90 50 75 65 105 45 65 100 75 80 70 55 85 70
Ru TD 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 500 25 35 45 25 50 60 40 25 30 15 15 15 55 45 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 64 4 5 6 4 4 6 5 2 5 2 3 3 7 5 3
RB Bernard Pierce 23 6.1 5.6 92 84 550 35 45 25 30 40 50 35 40 25 35 50 25 35 45 35
Ru TD 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 0 5 10 0 0 0 5 0 5 10 0 0 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2
RB Kyle Juszczyk 22 3 1.8 44.5 27.5 30 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 125 10 5 15 10 0 10 15 5 15 15 10 5 0 0 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 0 1
WR Torrey Smith 24 12.7 8.8 190.5 132.5 965 35 55 35 40 90 105 30 40 75 105 45 65 80 90 75
Re TD 6 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 58 2 4 3 3 5 5 2 3 5 4 2 4 6 6 4
WR Jacoby Jones 29 5.8 3.9 87 59 470 40 45 20 25 0 35 0 20 30 0 35 55 45 75 45
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 28 2 2 1 1 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 3 3 4 3
WR Tommy Streeter 23 3.4 2.2 44.5 28.5 225 30 30 0 40 15 INJ INJ 50 10 0 0 15 0 10 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 1 2 0 3 1 INJ INJ 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 2
WR Tandon Doss 22 4 2 59.5 30.5 305 15 25 55 10 25 45 10 15 20 35 10 0 0 20 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 29 2 2 5 1 2 4 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 2 2
TE Dennis Pitta 28 11.5 7 172.5 105.5 695 80 30 45 50 35 40 30 40 75 55 65 20 45 30 55
Re TD 6 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 67 7 3 4 5 3 4 3 4 8 5 6 2 5 3 5
TE Ed Dickson 26 7.2 4.5 108.5 67.5 435 35 25 20 35 20 25 40 25 35 30 15 20 40 25 45
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 41 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 4

General overview: The one notable difference on the Ravens’ offense from last season is the loss of Anquan Boldin in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. However, the receiver cupboard is not exactly bare, just lacking in experience. Boldin did much of his damage out of the slot, which makes his replacement a possible hot fantasy property. Although he is listed as a tight end, Pitta was already sharing slot duties with Boldin last season and figures to see even more work in space this season (64.6% of Pitta’s routes out of the slot last season per Pro Football Focus, the sixth-highest mark by a tight end) with his competition for slot snaps no longer around. Smith is the only proven receiver left on the roster, but the Ravens have yet to use him regularly in the short and intermediate passing game. Part of the reason for that could be the dependability of Rice – who will probably see slightly less work this season given the emergence of Pierce – although there is no question Rice is the lead back in the same run-heavy offense that sparked the team’s Super Bowl push. Flacco rode his interception-free postseason playoff stretch to a huge long-term contract, but the offense actually performed better when OC Jim Caldwell replaced Cam Cameron and focused more on the run game, so don’t look for Flacco to put up the kind of stats most would expect from a $20 M quarterback.

Matchup analysis: The Super Bowl champs did not catch a break with their schedule, catching four of last season’s top 10 rush defenses (lowest YPC allowed) in Denver, Houston, Miami and Pittsburgh – with three of those games on the road before the break. As long as Rice gets the work he should in the passing game, his opponent typically won’t alter his overall fantasy production all that much. However, the early string of difficult defenses will pose more of an issue for any owners hoping to count on Pierce as an early bye-week fill-in. The post-bye slate doesn’t get any easier for Rice or Pierce, which means Rice had better hope he is correct about catching more passes this season because the Ravens could have more difficulty running the ball than they did in 2012. As gloomy as it looks for the running game, it appears downright awful for Smith. Before the bye, it is entirely possible he will run the majority of his routes against a fresh Champ Bailey, Joe Haden, Johnathan Joseph, Stephon Gilmore, a potentially healthy Brent Grimes and Ike Taylor. Of that bunch, Haden, Joseph and Taylor have established themselves as good “shadow” cornerbacks while Bailey, Gilmore and Grimes can or have all played that role with great success from time to time. The second half is only slightly easier for Smith, meaning a huge third-year jump for Smith is highly unlikely. By comparison, Pitta will have it much easier and could push 80 receptions if the Ravens find themselves behind in enough games.

 Cincinnati Bengals
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CHI PIT GB CLE NE BUF DET NYJ MIA BAL CLE bye SD IND PIT MIN
QB Andy Dalton 25 20.5 20.5 307.5 307.5 3850 250 225 335 240 265 245 270 230 265 300 255 260 295 160 255
TD 26 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 2 0 1 3 3 2 0 2
INT 13 1 2 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
Ru Yards 115 10 0 10 5 5 10 15 0 5 10 10 15 10 0 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
RB B Green-Ellis 28 9.2 8.4 138 126 820 60 30 55 65 40 70 50 45 55 55 80 60 35 60 60
Ru TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 5 0 10 0 0 5 10 5 10 10 0 5 0 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 2 1
RB Giovani Bernard 21 11.2 8.3 168 124 540 40 40 20 50 25 35 70 40 25 15 20 45 60 20 35
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 400 25 10 40 20 30 65 25 20 50 15 25 25 25 10 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 44 3 1 4 3 3 5 2 3 5 2 2 4 3 2 2
WR A.J. Green 25 18.5 12.4 277 186 1260 75 90 125 70 85 55 105 40 75 85 75 130 115 50 85
Re TD 10 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 1
Rec 91 5 8 9 4 6 4 8 3 6 7 5 8 7 5 6
WR Mohamed Sanu 24 9.4 5.8 141.5 86.5 565 40 35 55 35 40 65 30 30 55 30 45 35 15 25 30
Re TD 5 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 55 4 2 5 4 4 6 3 4 4 3 4 3 2 3 4
WR Marvin Jones 23 3.8 2.4 50 31 250 15 20 0 45 20 INJ INJ 20 0 45 20 0 10 20 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 1 2 0 2 2 INJ INJ 2 0 3 2 0 1 2 2
WR Andrew Hawkins 27 4.6 2.5 68.5 37.5 315 20 10 35 35 10 0 15 30 20 50 0 20 25 15 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31 2 1 3 3 1 0 2 3 2 5 0 2 2 2 3
TE Jermaine Gresham 24 7.5 4.7 112 70 460 30 45 30 10 50 10 60 20 35 40 45 15 35 10 25
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 42 3 4 3 1 5 1 6 2 3 4 3 1 3 1 2
TE Tyler Eifert 22 7.1 4.7 106 70 520 40 15 40 25 30 45 25 65 20 25 45 30 70 20 25
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 36 3 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 5 2 2

General overview: Green will remain the constant in this offense for at least the next 5-6 years, even if Cincinnati doesn’t ever identify itself as a passing team in that time. About the same time Dalton lost Sanu last season, the quarterback’s numbers fell off dramatically. Perhaps the Sanu correlation was only a coincidence, but Dalton’s late fade was his second in as many seasons in the league. In theory, adding Bernard as a dynamic pass-catching weapon in the short passing game should help stabilize the quarterback and help him avoid such valleys late in the season. Eifert’s selection was somewhat curious given the team’s recent investment into the position, but the Bengals appear committed on dictating matchups with their tight ends in the same way the Patriots have done in recent years. Whether or not the drafting of Bernard was done in the hopes he could emulate Chris Perry (circa 2005) or evolve into the all-purpose weapon 190-pound James Brooks was in the Bengals’ heyday in the late 1980s is still up for debate, but the clock is ticking on Green-Ellis either way. It’s a virtual lock “Law Firm” will not approach the 1,094 yards or 22 catches he posted a season ago; it is quite possible both players will be complementary backs in 2013. Speaking of near-locks, Hawkins’ elusiveness in the open field will likely get wasted for a second straight year since Eifert (and possibly Sanu) will likely steal a large number of his snaps out of the slot.

Matchup analysis: In order to make a respectable showing through the first 11 weeks, Cincinnati is probably going to need every one of its weapons. There are occasions where the Bengals forget they have Green, but he’s about as consistent and “matchup-proof” as receivers get, so a repeat of last season can’t be dismissed just because he runs the gauntlet in terms of likely cornerback matchups before the bye. The Dalton-to-Green connection could really start cooking around fantasy playoff time, however. The second-starting receiver in this offense (likely Sanu) will naturally see less attention since Green commands so much of it, but he could also catch a break because a handful of the teams Cincinnati faces have “shadow” corners without a solid sidekick opposite them. Sanu should have the physical advantage in those games (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, the Jets and possibly Miami). Ten of the Bengals’ 15 opponents during the fantasy season in 2013 held opponents to the league average (4.3 YPC) or worse in 2012 and there is little reason to believe that more than one or two won’t be there again this season. Green-Ellis was already a poor bet to see his production drop dramatically because of Bernard, so the fact that the matchups project to be so difficult make it entirely possible Cincinnati will opt for the rookie’s explosiveness at some point this season and relegate “Law Firm” to short-yardage duties. Regardless of which back leads the backfield, it is possible neither will reach 1,000 total yards barring injury.

 Cleveland Browns
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIA BAL MIN CIN BUF DET GB KC BAL bye CIN PIT JAC NE CHI NYJ
QB Brandon Weeden 29 17 17 254.6 254.6 3765 270 245 275 295 235 195 280 220 255 295 165 260 315 210 250
TD 21 2 0 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1
INT 15 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 80 10 0 10 10 5 5 0 10 5 5 5 0 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Trent Richardson 23 20 16.4 299.5 245.5 1340 70 80 90 110 90 120 70 105 65 75 85 135 55 80 110
Ru TD 11 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 1
Re Yards 395 25 45 15 25 10 5 55 25 20 40 10 20 50 25 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 54 4 5 2 4 2 1 6 3 3 5 2 3 6 4 4
RB Montario Hardesty 26 1.7 1.4 22.5 18.5 165 10 10 10 INJ INJ 10 25 5 20 15 10 15 0 25 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 20 0 5 0 INJ INJ 0 5 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
WR Josh Gordon 22 14.3 10.1 186.5 131.5 895 SUS SUS 60 115 30 90 70 85 65 70 25 75 90 55 65
Re TD 7 SUS SUS 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 55 SUS SUS 4 7 2 5 4 6 5 5 2 4 4 3 4
WR Greg Little 24 9.8 6 136.5 83.5 655 50 60 70 35 80 40 35 25 45 35 INJ 30 65 50 35
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 1
Rec 53 4 5 5 3 6 3 2 2 4 3 INJ 3 5 5 3
WR Travis Benjamin 23 4.3 3.1 65 46 340 65 30 25 0 30 10 25 0 45 40 35 0 20 15 0
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 3 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 1 0
WR Davone Bess 27 5.9 3 82 42 420 25 30 35 10 INJ 15 30 10 25 40 35 55 45 20 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 40 2 3 3 1 INJ 2 2 1 2 4 3 6 4 2 5
TE Jordan Cameron 25 12.3 8.3 184 125 830 80 55 55 90 60 35 55 75 35 60 35 65 20 45 65
Re TD 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 59 6 4 3 5 4 2 4 6 3 4 3 5 2 3 5

General overview: So long as new OC Norv Turner has a running back that can carry the load, his teams will almost always feature a clear feature back with three receivers – especially an athletic tight end – that can get downfield. Richardson has seemingly dealt with one injury or another from the time he entered the league, but he displayed an incredible amount of toughness last season playing through two broken ribs for nearly half the season. He is line for a mammoth workload in 2013 assuming he can hold up to the punishment. Gordon’s two-game suspension will not only drop his price on draft day, but will also likely help Cameron get started on his breakout campaign in a big way even sooner. There may not be two coaches who value the tight end in their offense more than Turner and new HC Rob Chudzinski. Like Cameron, Gordon is just the kind of big and fast receiver that tends to thrive in Turner’s vertical-based offenses. Weeden should benefit as much – if not more – than anyone since his big arm is a much better fit in Turner’s offense than it was ever going to be in ex-HC Pat Shurmur’s West Coast attack.

Matchup analysis: As talented as Richardson is, he will almost certainly need the volume he is likely to receive in order to overcome a treacherous schedule. In between top-notch run defenses (Miami, Minnesota and Baltimore twice), teams that could get a big lead early (Green Bay) or have both in their favor (Cincinnati and Detroit), the second-year back could struggle at various points throughout the first half of the season. While it doesn’t get much better after the bye, Richardson could be a second-half stud if Pittsburgh’s aging defense experiences any kind of falloff and/or New England struggles – relatively speaking – to score as it has become accustomed to in recent years. The Bears figure to become more of an offensive team under new HC Marc Trestman while the Jets will likely struggle all season, making Richardson a solid fantasy playoff bet. Safety and linebacker play are important against Turner’s tight end-heavy offenses and this schedule should be conducive to Cameron’s rise to fantasy prominence. Baltimore, Minnesota and Detroit should serve as early tests for him, but if he can pass any or all of those tests, he should be well on his way to a top 5-10 finish at his position. Because Turner’s offenses are vertical-based, size and speed (as well as the ability to play the ball in the air) are often almost as important as route-running, meaning Gordon and Little should have a better shot at succeeding against a difficult run of corners over the first five weeks, then from Weeks 8-12 and finally again in the fantasy playoffs.

 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TEN CIN CHI MIN bye NYJ BAL OAK NE BUF DET CLE BAL MIA CIN GB
QB Ben Roethlisberger 31 18.5 18.5 240.5 240.5 3125 245 255 235 195 205 325 250 180 215 325 290 195 210 INJ INJ
TD 20 2 2 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 INJ INJ
INT 9 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 INJ INJ
Ru Yards 75 5 10 5 5 0 5 0 10 15 0 10 0 10 INJ INJ
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
RB Le’Veon Bell 21 15.6 13.1 219 183 1085 85 70 90 50 105 35 120 70 65 45 INJ 65 75 100 110
Ru TD 7 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 INJ 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 265 20 30 10 15 15 30 0 15 20 25 INJ 15 35 20 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 36 2 4 2 3 2 3 0 3 3 3 INJ 2 4 3 2
RB Isaac Redman 28 2.4 2.1 36.5 31.5 225 25 15 5 25 35 15 15 10 0 25 15 10 0 15 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 30 0 0 5 0 0 0 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
RB Jonathan Dwyer 24 3.5 2.7 53 41 220 15 0 10 15 0 45 10 0 0 60 40 15 10 0 0
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 10 0 5 5 0 15 0 0 0 5 15 0 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 2
RB L Stephens-Howling 26 5.9 3.9 88 59 230 20 10 0 0 15 10 25 15 40 25 25 0 10 25 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 240 15 35 15 0 10 15 10 20 10 15 45 0 10 15 25
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 29 2 4 2 0 1 3 1 3 2 2 4 0 1 2 2
WR Antonio Brown 26 13.1 8.3 197 124 880 85 75 65 60 40 35 75 60 30 105 45 60 35 50 60
Re TD 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 73 6 5 6 5 4 2 7 6 3 8 3 5 3 5 5
WR Emmanuel Sanders 26 13.2 8.6 171.5 111.5 815 80 65 55 65 40 55 105 INJ INJ 75 85 35 65 35 55
Re TD 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ 1 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 60 6 4 4 5 3 4 7 INJ INJ 6 5 4 4 3 5
WR Markus Wheaton 22 6.6 4.4 99.5 66.5 485 0 10 45 25 40 55 0 40 80 35 55 30 35 20 15
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 0 1 3 2 2 3 0 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 1
WR Jerricho Cotchery 31 4.7 2.7 71 41 350 25 30 25 10 35 40 0 25 35 40 10 35 0 25 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 30 2 3 2 1 2 3 0 2 2 4 1 3 0 3 2
TE Heath Miller 30 9.6 6.3 106 69 390 INJ INJ INJ INJ 25 65 45 20 40 20 25 20 55 30 45
Re TD 5 INJ INJ INJ INJ 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Rec 37 INJ INJ INJ INJ 2 5 5 2 4 2 3 2 5 3 4

General overview: Miller’s ACL tear late last season (and his uncertain status for 2013) was the first domino to fall before Mike Wallace signed a huge contract to join the Miami Dolphins, leaving Brown as the default top receiver for the Steelers and Sanders as the clear early choice to replace him in the lineup. Losing Wallace’s defense-altering speed made it important for Pittsburgh to find his long-term replacement (which could very well be Wheaton) and return to its roots as a running team. However, the Steelers didn’t just draft a player that could potentially be their next bellcow back, they did the near-unthinkable and decided to tweak the way they run the football. While they don’t plan on abandoning the power and inside zone schemes they have run for years, they plan on being committed to outside zone scheme in an effort to pick up their mediocre rushing numbers from 2012 – one of several changes reportedly requested by Roethlisberger. While the question is whether or not Pittsburgh has a back on its roster capable of making the most of the change is an obvious and necessary one, the Steelers stayed true to their roots by landing a big back in Bell. The Michigan State alum is light on his feet for a back his size and a capable receiver. Along with the addition of Stephens-Howling, don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh begins the process of lessening its dependence on Big Ben and focuses on keeping him healthy by relying on the running game and using its backs in the passing game.

Matchup analysis: Bell will be given every opportunity to carry the running game, although September figures to be a bit of a slow month with Cincinnati, Chicago and Minnesota all more than capable of keeping the Steelers’ running game in check. The Jets and Raiders could offer a bit of relief following the bye, but the rookie is likely going to need two of the strengths from his college days (volume and durability) in order to consistently fare well during the second half of the season. Baltimore (twice), New England, Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami and Cincinnati should each present a pretty stiff challenge for a running game that has the athleticism to dominate in the new scheme, but doesn’t have a back that possesses the breakaway speed to gash opposing defenses for long runs. Brown is probably a bit overmatched as a WR1, but he’ll be asked to carry that title in OC Todd Haley’s offense in 2013 and could actually perform like one early with few true dominant cornerbacks on the first-half schedule. Matchups against Antonio Cromartie, Lardarius Webb, Stephon Gilmore, Joe Haden and Brent Grimes don’t figure to help his cause in the second half, though, which could open the door for a big second half from Sanders – assuming he can stay healthy.

NFC North

 Chicago Bears
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS bye GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI
QB Jay Cutler 30 22.1 22.1 330.8 330.8 4120 285 245 230 255 315 275 345 285 285 260 240 290 255 260 295
TD 29 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 2
INT 14 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 1
Ru Yards 140 10 10 5 20 0 15 10 10 5 10 5 15 0 10 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Matt Forte 27 20.1 15.4 301.5 231.5 1170 80 60 55 110 85 70 60 55 65 45 100 85 120 75 105
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 605 35 25 45 35 50 25 35 75 35 35 55 40 70 15 30
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 70 5 4 5 4 6 3 5 6 4 5 5 4 7 3 4
RB Michael Bush 29 5.8 5.3 86.5 79.5 330 15 25 15 30 20 15 30 15 20 35 20 10 35 10 35
Ru TD 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 45 10 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 15 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0
WR Brandon Marshall 29 19.8 13.2 296.5 197.5 1375 105 80 65 95 125 100 130 70 140 75 50 85 50 75 130
Re TD 10 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 2
Rec 99 8 7 5 6 10 6 8 5 10 6 5 6 4 5 8
WR Alshon Jeffery 23 12.3 8.1 184 122 860 50 65 35 55 75 45 65 45 80 65 30 55 30 105 60
Re TD 6 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 62 4 5 3 5 6 3 4 4 5 5 3 4 2 6 3
WR Earl Bennett 26 5.1 2.8 76.5 42.5 365 20 35 25 10 25 10 35 30 0 40 25 20 35 30 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 34 2 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 0 4 2 2 3 3 2
WR Marquess Wilson 20 2.1 1.3 31 19 130 0 0 10 0 10 25 10 15 0 15 0 20 10 15 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 2 0
TE Martellus Bennett 26 12.4 8.1 186 122 740 65 40 50 55 30 70 65 50 25 30 80 55 55 20 50
Re TD 8 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 64 4 4 5 5 3 6 5 4 2 3 7 4 5 2 5

General overview: The Bears have been a defensive-oriented team for so long that it seems almost sacrilegious to think they could be anything else. Under new HC Marc Trestman, that tide will turn. The longtime NFL play-caller guided Steve Young and Rich Gannon to career years and tutored Montreal Alouettes’ quarterback Anthony Calvillo to back-to-back CFL MVP awards in 2008 and 2009, so Cutler should be in for a treat. Trestman’s arrival should also put an end to the revolving door of offensive coordinators Cutler has dealt with since his days in Denver, giving Chicago’s talent-rich offensive arsenal a chance to grow together. In addition to playing for one of the sharpest offensive minds in the league, Cutler will also have the most talent he’s ever had at his disposal with annual 100-catch threat Marshall, another big-bodied receiver in Jeffery, a red-zone beast in Bennett and one of the league’s best receiving backs in Forte. In short, about the only things that might keep Cutler from enjoying a career year is stubbornness or injury – the latter of which Trestman hopes to avoid by “speeding up” his contract-year quarterback.

Matchup analysis: Few cornerbacks can legitimately “shut down” Marshall, with a Week 15 showdown against Cleveland’s Joe Haden probably representing the most difficult matchup he will have this season. While he is highly unlikely to repeat his 118-1,508-11 line from 2012, defenses will not be able to commit the resources to slowing him down like they were able to last season either. He should be about as matchup-proof as receivers get, especially against this schedule. In turn, Jeffery and Bennett – assuming they can both stay healthy this year – should have fairly clear paths to career years with the attention Marshall will receive. September could be potentially difficult for Jeffery, but it is hard to imagine that many teams after that (outside of Baltimore, St. Louis and Dallas) have the scheme and/or personnel to match up with him. Bennett may sometimes be the fourth option in the passing game, but his early red-zone contributions in 2012 with the Giants likely did not go unnoticed by Trestman. Most linebackers are not a good matchup for him and, after a run of defenses that could keep him under control in the first half, most of the teams he will face in the second half lack a safety and/or linebacker with the ability to cover him – making him a possible fantasy trade-deadline target. Much like the passing game, Forte and the running game should benefit from a bit of a friendly schedule. Minnesota and Pittsburgh loom as difficult first-half opponents while Weeks 11-13 could also pose a bit of a hurdle, but Forte stands a very good chance at pushing the likes of Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush for the league lead in receptions by a running back – making him a rock-solid RB1 in both standard and PPR leagues despite a likely 6-7 touchdown ceiling.

 Detroit Lions
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIN ARI WAS CHI GB CLE CIN DAL bye CHI PIT TB GB PHI BAL NYG
QB Matthew Stafford 25 23.3 23.3 349.7 349.7 4305 285 255 310 270 325 235 345 265 315 240 255 270 350 250 335
TD 31 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 4 1 3
INT 15 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 1
Ru Yards 95 5 0 10 15 10 0 15 5 0 5 0 5 10 5 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
RB Reggie Bush 28 17.5 12.5 244.5 174.5 700 50 40 55 75 40 65 30 INJ 55 45 40 70 55 35 45
Ru TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 565 45 25 60 35 80 25 20 INJ 45 15 50 35 45 20 65
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 70 6 4 6 4 7 3 4 INJ 5 3 7 5 6 4 6
RB Mikel Leshoure 23 5.1 4.6 76 69 280 15 25 15 0 25 20 35 45 10 15 15 25 5 15 15
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 50 0 0 5 10 0 0 10 10 0 0 5 0 0 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
RB Joique Bell 27 5.3 3.8 79.5 56.5 350 25 15 10 40 15 25 40 35 25 20 15 10 40 15 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 155 10 20 15 5 0 15 20 25 10 10 0 5 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23 2 2 3 1 0 2 3 4 1 2 0 1 1 0 1
WR Calvin Johnson 27 21.7 15.3 326 229 1510 110 90 135 75 125 80 140 85 105 80 45 90 155 90 105
Re TD 13 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1
Rec 97 8 6 9 5 6 4 10 5 7 6 3 5 12 5 6
WR Nate Burleson 32 9.3 5.8 130.5 80.5 565 45 20 50 30 45 40 50 30 40 35 65 INJ 30 50 35
Re TD 4 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 50 4 2 5 3 4 4 5 2 3 2 6 INJ 2 5 3
WR Ryan Broyles 25 12.2 7.7 146 92 620 30 45 25 55 40 INJ INJ INJ 60 75 50 85 35 65 55
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 54 3 4 2 5 4 INJ INJ INJ 5 7 4 7 3 6 4
TE Brandon Pettigrew 28 8.5 5 128 75 510 35 30 20 40 20 30 60 35 45 25 30 40 35 25 40
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 53 4 3 3 4 2 3 6 3 4 3 3 5 4 2 4
TE Tony Scheffler 30 3.7 2.5 56 37 250 10 25 0 20 15 25 35 40 10 0 0 15 40 0 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 19 1 2 0 2 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 1

General overview: Even though a rash of injuries at receiver behind Calvin Johnson didn’t help matters, perhaps nothing handcuffed the Lions more than the absence of Jahvid Best’s game-breaking ability. With his playing career at a crossroads, Detroit moved on and landed the original “satellite back” in Bush. On the surface, it may not appear that Bush’s presence should help Johnson all that much, but any player like Bush that can threaten defenses in the short-to-intermediate passing game means less attention is being paid to “Megatron”. While Bush will share some time with Leshoure and Bell, he should be the clear lead back and a threat to catch nearly 80 passes if the Ford Field turf doesn’t aggravate his troublesome knee – a legitimate concern. Burleson and Broyles both appear to be on track for Week 1 following ACL injuries, meaning Stafford should be able to attack defenses vertically and horizontally about 40 times per game in the Lions’ pass-happy offense. A healthy Bush probably is bad news for Pettigrew’s fantasy stock while a healthy Broyles may eventually overtake Burleson on the depth chart, but all the quality options is music to the ears of Stafford’s owners.

Matchup analysis: Johnson is highly unlikely to repeat his historic 2012, but he could very well push his career high of 16 touchdowns from 2011 with a healthy supporting cast. Megatron was very unlucky last season – he was stopped six times inside the 2-yard line – meaning he could have scored 11 times despite being the sole focus of every defensive gameplan. His teammates’ health this season will probably be the main variable that determines if he makes a push for 20 TDs or 2,000 yards. His one defensive rival on the schedule would be a healthy Darrelle Revis, whom he is scheduled to face in Week 12. Either way, matchups matter very little to Johnson since he has the best combination of talent, scheme and volume of any NFL receiver. Bush would have a difficult slate if he were strictly an early-down back, but so much of his fantasy production figures to come as a result of swing passes and tosses against light defensive boxes that it might be appropriate to say that game situation – more than matchups – will determine his production each week. Broyles should live in the slot for as long as he can hold up and should have his way with most of the Lions’ opponents, although he could see a lot of Lardarius Webb in Week 15. Burleson and Pettigrew will maintain value simply because Detroit will probably throw it about 650 times in 2013 and the three aforementioned receivers/backs can only account for roughly 400 of those targets. Burleson had 42 targets through five games before his Week 7 injury last year and is a crafty player, meaning he should average 4-5 catches per game against a schedule that doesn’t offer a lot of defense with two above-average cornerbacks. Most of Pettigrew’s value is tied up in his ability to be a dump-off option for Stafford, meaning he’ll have value but could see his numbers dip since Bush offers big-play potential while essentially providing the same service.

 Green Bay Packers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SF WAS CIN bye DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT
QB Aaron Rodgers 29 27.7 27.7 414.9 414.9 4535 270 295 310 330 270 295 275 350 380 280 265 360 260 325 270
TD 35 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 4 2 2 3
INT 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0
Ru Yards 195 25 15 15 5 25 5 10 5 20 15 5 15 0 10 25
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Eddie Lacy 22 11.2 10.3 145 134 790 45 60 70 75 50 65 65 INJ INJ 70 45 65 45 75 60
Ru TD 8 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 1 1 0 2 0 0
Re Yards 70 5 10 0 10 0 5 10 INJ INJ 10 0 15 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 INJ INJ 2 0 2 0 0 1
RB Johnathan Franklin 23 9.5 7.3 143 110 545 25 20 15 35 30 40 15 70 85 30 20 20 75 45 20
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 315 10 15 20 30 15 25 0 20 25 15 15 60 35 15 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 33 1 1 2 2 2 3 0 3 3 2 2 4 4 2 2
WR Jordy Nelson 28 16.7 11.9 250 178 1120 65 85 100 115 50 45 70 80 120 50 65 90 75 45 65
Re TD 11 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 1
Rec 72 5 6 6 8 4 3 5 4 6 3 4 8 3 3 4
WR Randall Cobb 23 17.1 10.6 256.5 158.5 1165 70 75 85 105 35 90 60 110 85 65 85 125 60 70 45
Re TD 7 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
Rec 98 6 7 8 7 4 7 5 8 7 6 8 10 5 5 5
WR James Jones 29 12.1 8.2 181.5 122.5 805 50 55 40 25 65 75 40 60 70 80 50 35 65 45 50
Re TD 7 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 59 4 5 3 2 4 6 3 4 4 6 3 3 5 3 4
WR Jarrett Boykin 23 2.9 1.8 43.5 27.5 215 20 0 0 10 25 30 40 0 10 15 20 0 25 20 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 2 0 0 1 2 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 0
WR Charles Johnson 24 1.8 1.2 26.5 18.5 125 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 45 45
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 3
TE Jermichael Finley 26 12.7 8.3 165.5 108.5 665 40 55 60 35 60 25 55 75 60 40 30 INJ INJ 85 45
Re TD 7 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0
Rec 57 3 5 6 3 5 2 5 6 6 4 2 INJ INJ 6 4

General overview: Rodgers still has one of the best – if not the best – WR corps at his disposal despite the departure of Greg Jennings. Despite a slow start by his standards, Rodgers posted an impressive 4,295-39-8 campaign – numbers slightly off the career year he enjoyed in 2011. With Jennings and Nelson hurt, Cobb became the multi-purpose weapon Green Bay hoped it was getting when it drafted him in 2011. Plagued by drops and inconsistency for most of his career, Jones put it all together in 2012 and led the league in receiving scores. And in case owners believe their emergence means Nelson is an afterthought, think again. After seven weeks – before hamstring and ankle injuries became an issue for Nelson – when Jones already had seven TDs and Cobb was beginning to exert himself, Nelson was on pace for 91 catches, 1,216 yards and 11 touchdowns. Finley flashed his old form during the second half of last season and could actually benefit as much as any player from the loss of Jennings because, like Jennings, Finley is able to play outside or in the slot (in addition to his in-line duties). Green Bay had major issues running the football, so GM Ted Thompson landed arguably the two best running backs in the draft in Lacy and Franklin. Lacy will get first crack at the lead-back role in part because the Packers want to be able to run the football with power in an effort to keep Rodgers’ jersey a bit cleaner while Franklin could easily settle in as the high-upside change-of-pace/third-down back.

Matchup analysis: From the passing games’ perspective, the games that begin and end their fantasy season figure to be their greatest challenges, but there are not a lot of teams in from Weeks 2-15 capable of handing the amount of firepower Green Bay possesses. For example, Baltimore’s Lardarius Webb should do a decent job against Cobb in the slot in Week 6 and Joe Haden should conceivably bottled up either Nelson or Jones the following week, but only the Cover 2 teams with a solid four-man rush and a good running game (like Minnesota) figures to have any success containing this offense. Even the higher-level defensive teams with above-average cornerbacks such as Cincinnati (poor safety play) will likely struggle defending Green Bay assuming Lacy and Franklin are holding up their end of the bargain. The rushing attack is a bit of a different story than the passing game because while Lacy’s presence should put some bite into the play-action game, most of the defenses over the first half of the season should have the personnel to keep it in check. Assuming Lacy isn’t hurt (or has lost his job to Franklin) by Week 10, owners should be able to get some solid production from either one or both rookies from that point on – at least through Week 15.

 Minnesota Vikings
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DET CHI CLE PIT bye CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN
QB Christian Ponder 25 19.2 19.2 249.6 249.6 3115 245 190 180 220 250 280 245 275 275 140 INJ INJ 280 290 245
TD 20 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 0 INJ INJ 2 2 2
INT 12 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 INJ INJ 1 1 1
Ru Yards 170 20 5 10 10 25 10 15 5 20 10 INJ INJ 15 5 20
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0
QB Matt Cassel 31 12.9 12.9 25.8 25.8 470 200 270
TD 2 2 0
INT 4 2 2
Ru Yards 30 15 15
Ru TD 0 0 0
RB Adrian Peterson 28 21.8 19.1 283.5 248.5 1435 120 85 135 75 155 110 130 155 85 90 45 INJ INJ 130 120
Ru TD 12 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 INJ INJ 1 1
Re Yards 270 20 15 5 10 25 35 10 30 65 20 0 INJ INJ 25 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 35 3 2 1 2 3 5 1 5 4 3 0 INJ INJ 4 2
RB Toby Gerhart 26 5.8 4.2 87.5 63.5 365 15 5 0 10 25 45 10 10 25 15 75 55 40 15 20
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 150 5 0 20 5 5 10 0 15 10 15 15 25 20 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 0 2 1 1 2 0 3 1 2 3 5 2 1 0
WR Greg Jennings 29 13.7 8.9 192 125 890 80 45 35 60 45 90 85 45 INJ 20 70 55 85 110 65
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 INJ 0 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 67 6 3 3 5 4 7 5 2 INJ 2 6 5 8 6 5
WR Jerome Simpson 27 9.2 6.1 138.5 91.5 735 55 20 65 40 85 20 35 55 75 25 50 55 70 30 55
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 47 3 2 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 2 3 4 5 2 3
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 22 7.1 4.7 106 70 520 25 30 15 30 40 55 30 40 45 25 10 65 40 35 35
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 36 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 5 3 2 3
WR Jarius Wright 23 2 1 29.5 15.5 155 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 15 20 10 0 15 30 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 3 2 1
TE Kyle Rudolph 23 13.2 8.8 198.5 132.5 785 50 70 30 65 45 60 75 75 60 15 55 45 25 65 50
Re TD 9 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 66 5 6 2 6 4 5 7 5 5 1 4 5 2 5 4

General overview: The story of the 2012 Vikings begins and ends with Peterson. Although he was clearly not 100% ready for action in Week 1, he started clicking on all cylinders around Week 4 and rolled off eight consecutive 100-yard games starting in Week 7. Among his most impressive stats was 27 runs of 20+ yards – only Chris Johnson (22 in 2009) has come anywhere close to that number in recent years – all of which culminated in a near-historic 2,097 yards rushing, which raised the bar unreasonably high for every other player coming off ACL surgery. However, part of the reason Peterson needed to perform at such a high level was because Minnesota’s passing game – which was average at best when Percy Harvin was healthy – went into the tank when he was lost for the season. Jennings was added to fill Harvin’s void while Patterson was drafted to eventually provide the same kind of open-field ability that made Harvin such a dynamic weapon. Until that happens, however, Ponder will need to lean heavily on Jennings and Rudolph, who emerged as a red-zone beast in 2012. The Vikings will be counting on their third-year tight end to show the same kind of domination all over the field this year that he displayed inside the red zone last season.

Matchup analysis: Peterson isn’t matchup-proof, but he’s about as consistent as they come for a running back that generates the majority of his fantasy value as a rusher. With that said, he should not be expected to make another serious run at 2,000 yards since the Vikings should be able to move the ball through the air with a bit more effectiveness in 2013. Thanks to some solid drafting on the defensive side of the ball recently, the Vikings will rarely ever need to abandon Peterson because they should almost always be in the game. So even when Minnesota faces Pittsburgh, Seattle and Baltimore throughout the middle of the schedule, it isn’t as if AP’s valleys will be that low. The same cannot be said about Jennings, who will probably get off to a slow start against a pair of Cover 2 teams as well as Joe Haden and Ike Taylor before the bye. The middle of the schedule offers a bit of relief, but Dallas, Seattle, Chicago, Baltimore and Cincinnati could all keep him in check, so it is vital in those games that Rudolph becomes a force in between the 20s. Fortunately, only the Seahawks and Ravens can feel good about the coverage abilities of their safety/linebacker heading into the season to minimize both players and concentrate more on Peterson.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.