Key to the table below:

Fant – Player’s rank in a PPR fantasy league where all touchdowns are worth six points.

0-4% - This column represents the percentage of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

0-4 - This column represents the actual number of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

Note #1: Wide receivers had to play in at least eight games and average at least five targets. The top 50 receivers are all included, with “**” denoting the players that did not make the cut but figure to have some impact in 2013.

Note #2: You may sort the table by clicking on the column headers.

Observations: Of the 28 receivers who played in at least 15 games and saw eight or more targets in half of their games, only Denarius Moore (51 catches on 114 targets), Fitzgerald (71 receptions on 156 targets), Wright (9.8 YPC) and Avery (60 catches on 124 targets) did not finish among the top 30 fantasy receivers. Of the four players, only Wright caught more than 50% of his targets and his YPC is shockingly low for a receiver who made his name as a downfield receiver in college. Per Pro Football Focus, Moore – a gifted downfield receiver – hauled in only four of the 22 pass attempts (with one drop) that traveled more than 20 yards in the air one season after catching a much more palatable 10 of 29 such passes. Fitzgerald endured a merry-go-round of some of the worst quarterbacks in the league while Avery’s only season with a catch rate above 50% was his rookie year of 2008.

Since a catch rate of 60% is much more acceptable and receivers can’t be expected to produce substantial numbers on three or fewer receptions, it is fair to assume that receivers that consistently see five or more targets will perform better than the low-volume or situational deep threats. Of the 29 receivers who played in at least 15 games and saw five or more targets in at least 80% of their games, only Fitzgerald, Roberts, Moore and Avery finished outside the top 30. Wright falls out of this subset but is replaced by Roberts, who didn’t suffer quite as much from the quarterbacking as Fitzgerald did (64 catches on 114 targets). Of course, Roberts wasn’t the main focus of the defense every week either.

On the other end of the spectrum, it would seem rather obvious that a high percentage of low-target games (0-4) would lead to fantasy mediocrity. And the numbers bear it out as only Colston ranked in the top 20 among fantasy receivers with a 0-4% of 25% or higher. In fact, not a single receiver with three or more 0-4 target games finished in the top 10 and only 11 ended up in the top 25. Three receivers – Bryant, Steve Smith and Decker – each got away with two games with 0-4 targets and were among the top 10 fantasy scorers at their position. Four more top 10 receivers – White, Demaryius Thomas, Marshall and Green – had one such game while Megatron, Welker and Wayne managed at least five targets in all 16 contests.

Fantasy impact: One of the reasons I want to conduct these studies over the next few years is to increase the sample size and draw some solid conclusions that help fantasy owners make informed judgments more quickly with players. If two years of data means anything, we can safely assume that more than one 0-4 target game over the course of the season greatly diminishes the odds that a receiver will post elite fantasy numbers. In 2011, only three receivers included in the study had zero 0-4 target games and each one finished in the top 18 while five of the top nine fantasy receivers had one such game. Cruz (third) and Harvin (eighth) had three 0-4 target games while only Jordy Nelson (fourth) had as many as five, although he was helped by 15 touchdown catches. While the exceptions each year prove that targets alone do not doom the receiver from a top 10 finish, they greatly diminish the chances.

Tight Ends

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