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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Big Board: Kickers & Defense/Special Teams
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/27/13

PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Let’s pay our respects to the kickers and defense/special teams units that help us decide our fantasy fates each and every season…once again, these are 15-game projections.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

 Kickers
Rk Player Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts XP FG
1 Phil Dawson SF 38 1.18 9.0 135 39 32
2 Matt Bryant ATL 38 0.90 8.6 129 51 26
3 Randy Bullock HOU 23 0.80 8.5 127 49 26
4 Josh Brown NYG 34 0.75 8.4 126 45 27
5 Matt Prater DEN 29 0.47 8.0 120 51 23
6 Stephen Gostkowski NE 29 0.42 7.9 119 53 22
7 Mason Crosby GB 28 0.28 7.7 116 53 21
8 Dan Bailey DAL 25 0.28 7.7 116 41 25
9 Adam Vinatieri IND 40 0.24 7.7 115 40 25
10 Garrett Hartley NO 27 0.24 7.7 115 55 20
11 Robbie Gould CHI 31 0.14 7.5 113 44 23
12 Steve Hauschka SEA 28 0.00 7.3 110 47 21
13 Mike Nugent CIN 31 0.00 7.3 110 41 23
14 Blair Walsh MIN 23 0.05 7.3 109 37 24
15 Rob Bironas TEN 35 0.05 7.3 109 37 24
16 David Akers DET 38 0.05 7.3 109 46 21
17 Ryan Succop KC 25 0.09 7.2 108 36 24
18 Kai Forbath WAS 25 0.09 7.2 108 45 21
19 Jay Feely ARI 37 0.24 7.0 105 36 23
20 Shaun Suisham PIT 30 0.24 7.0 105 33 24
21 Alex Henery PHI 26 0.28 6.9 104 38 22
22 Greg Zuerlein STL 25 0.33 6.9 103 40 21
23 Lawrence Tynes TB 35 0.33 6.9 103 40 21
24 Caleb Sturgis MIA 25 0.41 6.8 108 33 25
25 Graham Gano CAR 26 0.42 6.7 101 41 20
26 Brandon Bogotay CLE 24 0.52 6.6 99 39 20
27 Dustin Hopkins BUF 22 0.52 6.6 99 39 20
28 Sebastian Janikowski OAK 35 0.57 6.5 98 23 25
29 Justin Tucker BAL 23 0.61 6.5 97 31 22
30 Josh Scobee JAC 31 0.66 6.4 96 30 22
31 Nick Novak SD 32 0.94 6.0 90 27 21
32 Dan Carpenter NYJ 28 1.79 4.8 72 21 17

And now the defenses…

Bonus determined by the following benchmarks:
10 points for shutout or held to 2 points
7 points if held from 3-6 points
4 points if held from 7-12 points
2 points if held from 13-16 points
1 points if held from 17-20 points
0 points if held from 21-28 points
-1 point if give up 29-34 points
-3 points if give up 35+ points

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk Team Value FPts/G FPts PA Sks INT Fum TD Bonus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 Texans 2.17 11.2 168 243 47 20 10 30 31
2 Seahawks 1.37 10.1 151 252 38 17 11 30 27
3 49ers 1.32 10.0 150 253 43 17 11 24 27
4 Bears 1.23 9.9 148 307 45 16 16 30 9
5 Browns 0.85 9.3 140 351 41 16 13 36 5
6 Bengals 0.85 9.3 140 339 50 12 15 30 6
7 Cowboys 0.47 8.8 132 351 37 17 14 24 9
8 Broncos 0.28 8.5 128 277 40 15 8 24 18
9 Patriots 0.24 8.5 127 303 35 15 13 24 12
10 Ravens 0.05 8.2 123 304 41 13 13 18 12
11 Cardinals 0.05 8.2 123 355 35 17 11 30 2
12 Redskins 0.00 8.1 122 345 40 15 9 30 4
13 Vikings 0.09 8.0 120 326 42 14 13 12 12
14 Packers 0.19 7.9 118 364 39 18 9 24 1
15 Rams 0.19 7.9 118 352 47 16 8 18 5
16 Chiefs 0.28 7.7 116 313 34 16 8 24 10
17 Dolphins 0.28 7.7 116 322 40 16 8 18 10
18 Bucs 0.33 7.7 115 269 30 17 7 18 19
19 Lions 0.42 7.5 113 360 39 14 9 24 4
20 Bills 0.71 7.1 107 367 36 15 10 18 3
21 Falcons 0.85 6.9 104 385 28 17 10 24 -2
22 Giants 0.90 6.9 103 366 35 14 13 12 2
23 Steelers 1.13 6.5 98 295 36 10 9 12 12
24 Saints 1.18 6.5 97 419 32 18 9 18 -7
25 Panthers 1.65 5.8 87 374 37 8 10 18 -4
26 Jets 1.74 5.7 85 397 30 10 12 12 -1
27 Colts 1.79 5.6 84 374 27 11 5 24 1
28 Chargers 2.17 5.1 76 420 28 12 10 12 -8
29 Titans 2.59 4.5 67 412 29 8 6 18 -8
30 Jaguars 2.88 4.1 61 450 23 9 9 12 -10
31 Raiders 2.88 4.1 61 461 27 9 7 18 -16
32 Eagles 2.92 4.0 60 439 26 11 7 12 -14

Instead of waiting until the end of the preseason to search for the next Victor Cruz (like I did here last season), I’m going to provide a list of under-the-radar players who impressed me in the previous week of preseason action). Since I don’t make it a habit to watch all 16 exhibition games in the final week of the preseason, I will start with Week 1’s “standouts” this week and continue on over the next two weeks. The main difference between what I did last year and what I will do this year, however, is simply identify players who I believe made their case to move up the depth chart. And this isn’t so much about who performed well in the box score, but more about skill-position players who did their job well. If nothing else, don’t hesitate to queue these players on your dynasty watch list (in no particular order):

Week 1: Armanti Edwards, WR Carolina; Brice Butler, WR Oakland; Jaron Brown, WR Arizona; C.J. Anderson, RB Denver (out 4-6 weeks); Rex Burkhead, RB Cincinnati; Jermaine Kearse, WR Seattle; Travaris Cadet, RB New Orleans, Ace Sanders, WR Jacksonville; Marquess Wilson, WR Chicago; Michael Cox, RB NY Giants

Week 2: Khiry Robinson, RB New Orleans; Kenny Stills, WR New Orleans; Charles Hawkins, WR Arizona

Next: PPR Big Board

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.