Fantasy football requires a certain amount of good fortune, as last year proved when the weakest of the four teams I have drafted in this league allowed FFToday to claim the championship. But I also feel that it is important to note that I have relied exclusively on my Big Boards and the “value” on those boards to determine the dollar amounts I should assign to players in preparation for my auction drafts. The results: four teams, four playoff appearances, three straight championship games and one title.

This year’s auction was held on August 15, so keep that date in mind as opinions have changed on several players over the last week, be it due to injuries or for some other reason. Below, you will find the values I used to prioritize the players and the rationale I used in selecting my team.

Pre-draft

I entered this auction willing to do whatever it took to get the safest RB1 that would cost me the least, one of the my top nine quarterbacks and one of my top five receivers. Additionally, I wanted a top-shelf RB2/low-end RB1 to pair with my aforementioned surefire RB1. Beyond that, I made it a point to pay less than my valuation on just about every other player, knowing the depth at receiver would allow me to find a bargain or two. More than anything else, I was not about to leave this draft weak at running back – like I did last season.

Although it is a complete departure from conventional auction-draft strategy, I’ve never been a big fan of setting pre-draft positional budgets – such as spending 30% on my top two receivers. Much like a redraft format, value is only truly recognized during the course of the draft. If half the owners are willing to spend nearly half of their budget in order to lock up top-flight running backs and you are not (but still entered the draft placing a high priority on the position), you are forced to reassess your budget in the middle of the draft or face the possibility of ending up with a deep team with few superstars. While that strategy can win, superstars tend to carry the day in fantasy while complementary players can generally be found on the waiver wire throughout the year.

One of the best things an owner can do in the days leading up to the draft is to identify players in predictable situations (in terms of role, scheme and past performance) and set them at the top of the draft board. I find it amazing how often I end up with players from New England, Denver, Houston and Atlanta each year without giving it a second thought. If you are consistently drafting players with defined roles from good offenses, fantasy success should not be too far behind.

The Auction

Below you will find the prices that secured that player’s services (actual $) and the price I valued them at before the draft (My $). A dash in the first column reflects the fact that player was not drafted. The yellow highlight represents winning bids for FF Today. Finally, I will follow each position with a brief comment.

All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized by “My $”.

Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 Defense/Special Teams unit.

Observations: I’ll basically repeat the same comment I made regarding kickers: I will pay an extra $1 for one I believe I can start just about every week. Contrary to popular belief, most owners need to start one every week. Does anyone believe that Houston won’t make it worth my while when it plays San Diego, Oakland and Jacksonville (twice)? I’ve bid up to $4 on a defense before if memory serves, but $6 for Seattle seems exorbitant.

Post-draft

The FFToday team
QB: Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub
RB: Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, Shane Vereen, Ben Tate, Michael Bush, Chris Polk
WR: Julio Jones, Steve Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Nate Washington, Markus Wheaton
TE: Kyle Rudolph, Ed Dickson
K: Phil Dawson
D/ST: Houston Texans

Entering my fifth year in this league, I’d be stunned if this isn’t my best team. Yes, I’m aware that last year’s team won the championship, but I also know it was the least deserving of my first four playoff entries. Over the course of last season, I landed Russell Wilson, Bryce Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Danario Alexander, Chris Givens, Golden Tate and the Seahawks defense off the waiver wire – additions that helped my team through a ton of injuries and a mediocre draft in which I opted to go against my usual RB-heavy, value-everywhere-else approach. Being able to pull five starting-caliber players/units off waivers is not the recommended approach to winning titles, to say the least.

In my experience, auction drafting is all about believing in your evaluations of players, anticipating what elite players will be the cheapest option in their tier and asking yourself: “Can I build my team around him?” Every dollar saved in auctions will often help owners snag 1-2 more important players they may otherwise not have been able to afford.

Using this scoring system, I project Manning to average 0.5 FPts/G less than Aaron Rodgers – my No. 1 overall quarterback. While Manning may fall short of the standard Rodgers and Brees are likely to set at the position, I highly doubt he will fall out of the top five either. One reason why Charles was a priority for me was because I have long admired the consistent weekly fantasy production that Andy Reid’s running backs provide. While I don’t expect Jackson – or anyone else in fantasy – to match Charles’ consistency, I don’t think it is too much to ask for the new Falcon to match Michael Turner’s rushing totals (and then some) while stealing half of Jacquizz Rodgers’ receptions. Vereen – the third running back on my roster I anticipate will catch at least 50 passes – should spend most of the season in my flex spot, unless Tate takes over for an injured Foster as the feature back in Houston.

Jones and Smith are clear every-week starters that should finish among the top 20 at their position. Most owners would consider Hopkins as a weekly starter a bit of a stretch, but I have little doubt he is the real deal. It is possible that Rudolph may not match last season’s nine touchdowns, but he’s the most likely player after Gonzalez and Gronkowski to push for second place at his position. Christian Ponder might not be the answer in Minnesota, but how much of 2012 can we really put on him after playing with such a subpar group of receivers for at least half a season? I think Rudolph’s floor is about 60 catches, 600 yards and six touchdowns, although I expect closer to 65 receptions, 800 yards and eight scores.

In his two seasons with San Francisco, David Akers averaged 47 field-goal attempts. What do you want to bet that Dawson – who was the most accurate 16-game kicker in the league and 7-for-7 on 50-yard attempts in 2012 – won’t be asked to kick just as many for a team that lost Michael Crabtree? Last but not least, the Texans will get LB Brian Cushing back and likely welcome S Ed Reed to the fold at some point in September to bolster what was already a pretty solid unit.

Regarding my bench, Tate’s upside speaks for itself. Bush should stick on the roster and would be quite valuable if Forte gets hurt – something that has happened in each of the previous two years – while Polk was simply a flier in the unlikely event HC Chip Kelly names him LeSean McCoy’s backup over Bryce Brown in his run-heavy attack. I don’t expect much from Edelman when Amendola is healthy, but he could be something special if the ex-Ram fails to stay healthy (another likely occurrence). Washington remains a starter in Tennessee and would see a bump in receptions if Kendall Wright’s injury holds him out longer than expected. Wheaton is a player I anticipate holding onto as Pittsburgh begins to realize he can give them the same kind of explosive plays Mike Wallace once did.

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