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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Big Boards - Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/14/12

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Can’t wait.

Bart Scott’s famous two-word response to a postgame question a couple of seasons ago received a ton of airplay, but it accurately describes my attitude for this season. For me, there are few times during the year I look forward to more than my money league drafts. Being on the cusp of building a championship team and outwitting your opponents is a feeling hard to describe, but one worth experiencing for the sheer excitement and exhilaration it can produce.

In my experience, there is no excuse to be anything but the most-prepared owner in the draft room. Surprises will always happen when owners have 60-90 seconds to make their selections, but a prepared owner should always be looking at his/her draft board, gauging which players will be available to him/her at least 3-5 picks ahead of their selection. By the time they are on the clock, an owner’s main struggle should be choosing between 2-3 players who may have fallen and/or how it affects each subsequent they make. Didn’t expect Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout or Trent Richardson’s injuries to knock them in the third round? Well, rather than bypass that value because they weren’t part of your predraft plan, choose them and make every effort to highlight Rashad Jennings and Montario Hardesty on your draft sheet so you will be reminded to value them a few rounds later. Even though many fantasy owners play just for bragging rights, the goal for all serious players is the same: win. In my experience, winning starts in the offseason with preparation, continues at the draft when you can calmly select value over need, which carries over nicely into the season when it is time to make a trade or two. Ideally, all of this lands you firmly in the playoffs with an above-average chance to claim the league championship.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. It is understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled that often separates the great drafters from the very good ones. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2012.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a few key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and matchups, not on overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) I would like to direct your attention to one other significant change from seasons past. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – your will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying how many players are relatively decent bets to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: At least for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150 players. Next week, I will add the kickers and defenses while also expanding the number of ranked players. In the final set of Big Boards in two weeks, I will add even more players.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on the 36th player at the position. Unlike last year, I make no assumptions about what position owners would prefer at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format (the non-PPR board below will use the same scoring minus the full-point point-per-reception):

One final note: Over the next week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different – particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.

 PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster   HOU 26 9.96 23.4 351.5
2 2 RB Ray Rice   BAL 25 9.11 22.2 333.5
3 3 RB LeSean McCoy   PHI 24 8.48 21.3 320.0
4 1 QB Aaron Rodgers   GB 28 7.38 31.2 468.6
5 2 QB Tom Brady   NE 35 6.69 30.3 454.0
6 4 RB Chris Johnson   TEN 26 6.80 19.0 284.5
7 1 TE Jimmy Graham   NO 25 6.55 20.1 302.0
8 1 WR Calvin Johnson   DET 26 6.41 21.4 321.5
9 5 RB Darren Sproles   NO 29 5.08 16.5 248.0
10 3 QB Drew Brees   NO 33 4.56 27.2 408.7
11 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 23 4.03 16.6 248.5
12 6 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 24 6.09 18.0 251.5
13 7 RB Matt Forte   CHI 26 4.70 16.0 240.0
14 2 WR Larry Fitzgerald   ARI 29 3.28 17.0 255.0
15 8 RB Steven Jackson   STL 29 4.19 15.3 229.0
16 4 QB Cam Newton   CAR 23 1.95 23.6 353.4
17 3 WR Roddy White   ATL 30 3.35 17.1 256.5
18 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 23 3.33 17.1 239.0
19 9 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 7.42 19.8 258.0
20 10 RB Darren McFadden OAK 25 6.53 18.6 223.0
21 11 RB Trent Richardson CLE 22 4.05 15.1 211.0
22 12 RB Jamaal Charles KC 25 4.16 15.2 228.5
23 5 WR Victor Cruz   NYG 25 3.96 18.0 269.5
24 13 RB Doug Martin   TB 23 4.12 15.2 227.5
25 5 QB Matthew Stafford DET 24 3.34 25.5 382.8
26 14 RB M. Jones-Drew JAC 27 5.58 17.2 258.5
27 6 WR Andre Johnson HOU 31 4.06 18.1 235.5
28 7 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 24 4.01 18.0 252.5
29 6 QB Matt Ryan   ATL 27 1.80 23.3 350.1
30 8 WR Marques Colston NO 29 3.35 17.1 256.5
31 9 WR Jeremy Maclin   PHI 24 2.85 16.4 246.0
32 10 WR Eric Decker   DEN 25 3.30 17.0 255.5
33 11 WR Brandon Marshall   CHI 28 2.97 16.6 248.5
34 12 WR Wes Welker   NE 31 2.12 15.4 230.5
35 13 WR A.J. Green   CIN 24 1.98 15.2 227.5
36 3 TE Aaron Hernandez NE 22 3.28 15.5 217.0
37 14 WR Dez Bryant DAL 23 3.16 16.8 252.5
38 15 WR Miles Austin   DAL 28 2.90 16.5 247.0
39 16 WR Greg Jennings   GB 28 2.76 16.3 244.0
40 17 WR Percy Harvin MIN 24 2.85 16.4 246.0
41 18 WR Dem. Thomas DEN 24 2.79 16.3 212.0
42 15 RB Fred Jackson   BUF 31 4.02 15.0 225.5
43 4 TE Antonio Gates SD 32 2.98 15.1 181.0
44 7 QB Michael Vick PHI 32 2.16 23.9 310.2
45 16 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 26 2.44 12.8 192.0
46 19 WR Steve Smith   CAR 33 1.63 14.7 220.0
47 20 WR Brandon Lloyd   NE 32 1.63 14.7 220.0
48 17 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 26 4.76 16.1 209.0
49 18 RB Michael Turner   ATL 30 1.52 11.5 172.5
50 19 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 27 1.37 11.3 158.0
51 21 WR Steve Johnson   BUF 26 1.93 15.1 226.5
52 22 WR Jordy Nelson   GB 27 1.63 14.7 220.0
53 23 WR Vincent Jackson   TB 29 1.96 15.1 227.0
54 20 RB Reggie Bush MIA 27 4.57 15.8 205.5
55 21 RB Peyton Hillis   KC 26 2.54 12.9 194.0
56 22 RB C.J. Spiller   BUF 25 2.47 12.8 192.5
57 23 RB Willis McGahee   DEN 30 2.47 12.8 192.5
58 5 TE Vernon Davis   SF 28 2.00 13.7 205.5
59 6 TE Jermichael Finley   GB 25 1.86 13.5 202.5
60 8 QB Tony Romo   DAL 32 1.97 23.6 353.8
61 7 TE Jason Witten   DAL 30 1.86 13.5 202.5
62 24 WR Antonio Brown   PIT 24 0.71 13.4 200.5
63 25 WR DeSean Jackson   PHI 25 0.70 13.4 187.0
64 9 QB Peyton Manning DEN 36 0.24 21.1 317.1
65 10 QB Eli Manning   NYG 31 0.30 21.2 318.4
66 26 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 27 2.26 15.6 233.5
67 27 WR Mike Wallace PIT 26 1.30 14.2 213.0
68 24 RB Frank Gore SF 29 0.24 9.7 135.5
69 25 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 27 1.60 11.6 162.5
70 26 RB Isaac Redman PIT 27 1.22 11.1 166.0
71 27 RB Stevan Ridley   NE 23 0.99 10.8 150.5
72 28 RB Pierre Thomas NO 27 1.19 11.0 165.5
73 11 QB Philip Rivers   SD 30 0.00 20.8 312.0
74 29 RB Jonathan Stewart   CAR 25 1.43 11.4 170.5
75 30 RB James Starks GB 26 3.15 13.8 179.5
76 31 RB Mark Ingram NO 22 0.30 8.9 116.0
77 32 RB Ryan Williams ARI 22 0.07 9.3 129.5
78 33 RB B. Green-Ellis   CIN 27 0.37 9.9 148.0
79 28 WR Nate Washington   TEN 29 0.73 13.4 201.0
80 8 TE Brandon Pettigrew   DET 27 1.01 12.3 184.5
81 12 QB Jay Cutler   CHI 29 0.86 19.6 293.8
82 13 QB Robert Griffin III   WAS 22 0.80 19.7 275.4
83 34 RB Ben Tate   HOU 24 1.31 7.5 112.5
84 9 TE Fred Davis   WAS 26 0.78 12.0 179.5
85 10 TE Tony Gonzalez   ATL 36 0.94 12.2 183.0
86 11 TE Jermaine Gresham   CIN 24 0.99 12.3 184.0
87 29 WR D. Heyward-Bey   OAK 25 0.42 13.0 181.5
88 35 RB Roy Helu WAS 23 3.47 14.3 171.0
89 36 RB Beanie Wells ARI 24 0.27 9.0 116.5
90 37 RB Toby Gerhart   MIN 25 0.20 9.1 136.0
91 30 WR Denarius Moore   OAK 23 0.96 13.7 178.5
92 31 WR Torrey Smith   BAL 23 0.05 12.4 186.5
93 32 WR Reggie Wayne   IND 33 0.14 12.2 182.5
94 33 WR Greg Little   CLE 23 0.31 12.8 192.0
95 14 QB Josh Freeman   TB 24 0.29 20.4 305.8
96 12 TE Jacob Tamme   DEN 27 0.21 10.6 158.5
97 34 WR Titus Young   DET 23 0.00 12.4 185.5
98 15 QB Jake Locker   TEN 24 0.93 19.5 292.2
99 35 WR Pierre Garcon   WAS 26 0.66 11.4 171.5
100 13 TE Greg Olsen   CAR 27 0.45 10.2 153.5
101 16 QB Andrew Luck   IND 22 1.85 18.2 272.7
102 17 QB B. Roethlisberger   PIT 30 1.84 18.2 272.9
103 14 TE Brent Celek   PHI 27 0.45 10.2 153.5
104 15 TE Kyle Rudolph   MIN 22 0.49 10.2 152.5
105 36 WR Austin Collie   IND 26 0.36 11.9 166.0
106 37 WR Kendall Wright   TEN 22 1.62 10.1 131.0
107 38 WR Robert Meachem   SD 27 0.26 12.7 191.0
108 39 WR Mike Williams   TB 25 0.24 12.7 190.5
109 16 TE Jared Cook   TEN 25 0.00 10.9 163.0
110 38 RB Michael Bush   CHI 28 0.13 9.2 137.5
111 39 RB Evan Royster WAS 24 0.94 10.7 149.5
112 40 RB Isaiah Pead   STL 22 1.64 7.0 105.5
113 41 RB David Wilson   NYG 21 1.68 7.0 97.5
114 42 RB Kevin Smith DET 25 2.28 6.1 79.5
115 43 RB Jahvid Best DET 23 3.76 14.7 176.0
116 40 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 31 0.01 12.4 173.0
117 41 WR Randy Moss   SF 35 1.41 10.4 155.5
118 42 WR Michael Crabtree   SF 24 0.68 11.4 171.0
119 44 RB Jacquizz Rodgers   ATL 23 0.90 8.1 121.0
120 45 RB DeAngelo Williams   CAR 29 0.79 8.2 123.5
121 46 RB Ronnie Hillman   DEN 20 0.48 8.7 130.0
122 47 RB Vick Ballard   IND 22 0.72 8.3 125.0
123 48 RB Donald Brown IND 25 1.13 7.8 93.0
124 49 RB Rashad Jennings   JAC 27 1.33 7.5 97.0
125 50 RB LeGarrette Blount   TB 25 1.41 7.3 95.5
126 51 RB Mike Goodson   OAK 26 2.74 5.5 82.0
127 43 WR Sidney Rice SEA 26 1.73 9.9 129.0
128 52 RB Shane Vereen   NE 23 0.00 9.3 121.5
129 53 RB Daniel Thomas   MIA 24 0.66 10.3 144.0
130 54 RB Alex Green GB 24 2.06 6.4 96.5
131 17 TE Heath Miller   PIT 29 1.04 9.4 141.0
132 18 TE Coby Fleener   IND 23 1.18 9.2 138.0
133 19 TE Owen Daniels   HOU 29 0.99 9.5 142.0
134 20 TE Dustin Keller   NYJ 27 0.66 9.9 149.0
135 18 QB Matt Schaub   HOU 31 2.22 17.7 265.0
136 19 QB Christian Ponder MIN 24 1.21 19.1 229.1
137 44 WR Santonio Holmes   NYJ 28 0.40 11.8 177.0
138 45 WR Laurent Robinson   JAC 27 0.53 11.6 151.0
139 46 WR Justin Blackmon   JAC 22 1.15 10.7 161.0
140 47 WR Santana Moss   WAS 33 0.92 11.1 155.0
141 48 WR David Nelson   BUF 25 1.01 10.9 164.0
142 20 QB Carson Palmer   OAK 32 3.14 16.4 245.3
143 21 QB Joe Flacco   BAL 27 2.82 16.8 252.2
144 55 RB Montario Hardesty CLE 25 3.34 4.6 55.5
145 22 QB Alex Smith   SF 28 2.00 18.0 269.5
146 56 RB Mikel Leshoure DET 22 0.92 8.1 80.5
147 49 WR Lance Moore   NO 29 1.37 10.4 146.0
148 50 WR Jonathan Baldwin   KC 23 2.31 9.1 136.5
149 23 QB Andy Dalton   CIN 24 3.20 16.3 244.2
150 24 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick   BUF 29 3.16 16.3 245.0

Top 25: This is the shallowest crop of fantasy RB1s I can ever remember in all of my years of playing fantasy football. After the top three RBs (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy), there are countless question marks. It is so bad, in fact, that I have Darren Sproles listed inside the top 10 (not just at his position, but overall). That is in no way meant to slight the little guy, but backs projected to see less than 200 offensive touches just don’t usually warrant first-round consideration. With that said, I plan on sticking to my own advice this year about taking as many low-risk, high-reward players in the early rounds and he embodies that as much as anybody once we get past the first 7-8 picks.

One strategy for those owners at the end of the first round who want to minimize risk is to choose a “high-risk” player like Darren McFadden or Ryan Mathews and follow it up with a “safe” pick like Steven Jackson or Matt Forte (or even Sproles). While assuming risk that early is not optimal, I don’t mind taking on that risk if I can basically treat him as my RB2. The only thing that might bother me more than taking a high-risk back as my RB1 would be to let him fall to the Foster-Rice-McCoy owner and have him basically set that team up for the overall points title less than two rounds into the draft.

Staying with the Saints, I am ridiculously high on Jimmy Graham this season. Coming off a 99-catch breakout season in 2011, it would have been easy for the former shot-blocking specialist for the University of Miami (FL) basketball team to be satisfied. However, the New Orleans Times-Picayune suggested Graham was the team’s MVP of offseason drills and WWLTV.com stated that he looked more imposing during minicamp. While the same rules we have about offseason hyperbole belong here, the second article hints that last year may have just been the tip of the iceberg for him: “According to ProFootballFocus.com, Graham was the second-best tight end of those who saw 60 percent of their teams’ snaps, finishing the season with a plus-17.3 rating. He was No. 2 despite seeing only the 19th-most snaps for a tight end in that category. He was targeted more times -146 - than any other tight end, including 25 more than New England’s Rob Gronkowski. And his 458 yards after contact, according to PFF, were fourth-most by a tight end.” I’m not sure I’ve ever said this about a fantasy TE before, but here goes: if Graham somehow makes it to the second round of your drafts, take him. Chances are he will justify that draft spot, especially considering all the question marks at running back.

Let’s wrap up this part of the discussion with a trio of first-round talents at RB that have been bumped down a round due to their track record for durability and/or recent injuries. Before I start, let me address a fourth injury-plagued player I chose to leave in the first round – DeMarco Murray. While his injury history rivals some of the players we’ll discuss here in a bit, take a look at the “reasons to dislike Murray” portion of my “Top 20 Rookies For 2011 (11-20)” piece from last year. To get to the point, it certainly seems after reviewing his injuries (including his season-ending ankle injury last year), he has been more unlucky than anything. After all, none of his injuries appear to be chronic. And in my mind, that’s a pretty big deal because backs tend to run smarter as they get older. What I do know about Murray is this: after the first four RBs come off the board, Murray is one of the better bets at the position to secure 18-20 (or more) touches per week that is currently healthy and in an explosive offense. The fact the team wants to use him more as a receiver out of the backfield only enhances his value.

Now to the three backs I referenced above – Mathews, McFadden and rookie Trent Richardson. Of the three, Mathews is the closest to the Murray description above. Although it does seem he is just more predisposed to injury than any other RB, Mathews’ broken clavicle on his first preseason carry is just pathetic luck. I expect he’ll be ready to roll and be a top-five fantasy RB shortly upon his return, likely in Week 2 or 3. On the other hand, McFadden’s lower-body injuries are concerning. Certainly, last year’s Lisfranc injury was unavoidable, but it is bad when owners go into a season hoping a player will only miss three games due to his hamstrings. Despite being a top-five RB talent, he needs to be considered a second-rounder simply because he hasn’t shown the ability to carry his fantasy team for an entire season yet. Although Richardson’s left knee is the least concerning injury of the three mentioned here, his 2012 upside is also lower than the first two players mentioned. However, owners do have a right to be concerned since this is his second knee scope in six months.

26-50: Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout is now starting to reach a point where owners need to prepare for the worst. Both team and player appear to have their heels dug in pretty deep regarding their bargaining position. Perhaps if he were to report this week, I might be willing to move him up about 10 spots. But since he was already likely to lose a fairly significant part of his 2011 workload to Rashad Jennings anyway, I wasn’t exactly prepared to label him a first rounder regardless of whether he was in camp the whole time or not.

Let’s get to two other sure-to-be controversial rankings I have here, Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson. I acknowledge that it is sacrilegious to place a healthy feature back like Lynch so low, but I have no faith in him being able to repeat his second half from last season nor do I believe he is the kind of player that will run with the same ferocity now that he has his long-term contract in hand. Another key factor in his low ranking is that Seattle now has a highly combustible cast of characters that could carry owners to fantasy titles if they max out or destroy the team midway through the season if players decided “me” is more important than “we”. If there is a potential saving grace for Lynch, I suppose it might be his ability to contribute as a receiver, something Matt Flynn or rookie Russell Wilson should take advantage of more often than Tarvaris Jackson did in 2011.

As for Peterson, I’m going to need to see significant carries from him this preseason to believe in him as a consistent fantasy asset any time before the Vikings’ bye week. Regardless of the wonders of modern medicine and Peterson’s quick-healing powers, I have a hard time wrapping my mind around a player being able to return from two ligament tears (ACL and MCL) and severe meniscus damage, only to take the field and serve as his team’s lead back less than nine months later. I feel like I am being extremely generous in suggesting he’ll be a lead back at all in 2012.

How about one more controversial ranking? I absolutely love the fantasy ceiling for Peyton Hillis in Kansas City. As a much more able and all-around threat than Thomas Jones was in the “power role” in this offense, Hillis should be a fixture at the goal line and a regular check-down option in the passing game. Certainly, it is difficult to convince owners that one team could actually have two running backs worthy of higher-end RB2 status in fantasy, but in a day and age where players at the position are seeing fewer touches, the Chiefs may have two backs push 250.

51-100: If there is one player who stands a great chance at moving up the PPR board over the next couple of weeks, it is Reggie Bush. Daniel Thomas strikes me as such a good fit in the new offense but appears to be stuck in neutral and it is hard to understand why – suggesting there is a deeper issue with him and/or his work ethic. In regards to Bush, I don’t foresee another 1,000 yards rushing. With that said, he should challenge for the team lead in receptions (along with Davone Bess), so his PPR value should not drop all that much from last season. The question – as it always is with him – is his ability to stay on the field and play a full schedule.

The quarterback value in this range (more specifically the 60-84 range) is incredible. When the case can be made that the back half of the QB1s in the league could all post 4,000+ yards and push 30 TDs, you have what we call a deep class. Depending on the matchups in a given week, I would have no problem pitting Tony Romo, Peyton Manning or Eli Manning against the top half of QB1s. While the consistent excellence of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady wins out over the course of the season, I’d venture a guess that out of 15 games, the Romo-Manning-Manning group could easily match the top half in 11-12 games. I’m slightly less confident about Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler, but tend to believe a healthy Antonio Gates sparks a rebound season for the former. As for the latter, it’s just a matter of him proving he is ready to take the next step into elite status; he has the weapons.

Little known fact: Jake Locker threw exactly four touchdown passes last season and Nate Washington was on the receiving end of each and every one. While Kendall Wright is getting praised for his performance in Titans’ camp (and rightfully so), do not be so quick to dismiss Washington as a player who will just fall by the wayside as Wright continues to improve and Kenny Britt is finally able to rejoin the team. I don’t think he’ll match the standard he set last season, but with Tennessee likely to be more pass-heavy in 2012, I’m not sure Washington falls too far off that pace either.

101-150: It literally pains me to put Kyle Rudolph this low. There’s no doubt in my mind that he has 70-catch and 900-yard upside in his current circumstance, but I personally cannot trust OC Bill Musgrave enough to recommend him as a fantasy TE1. Christian Ponder is going to be a vastly underrated high-upside fantasy QB2 (when healthy) and he cannot stop raving about Rudolph’s hands, so it is clear he will have opportunity and the attention of his quarterback. It will also help his cause that Percy Harvin will be able to deflect some of the defensive attention he might otherwise receive. Either way, I cannot bring myself to rank (or project) him any higher simply because of Musgrave. If you feel differently about the play-calling (or don’t care about it) and want to focus more on talent, then draft him as a top-10 fantasy TE; he has that kind of ability.

It is in this group of 50 players we have a number of players with real high risk-reward potential. We already know about the RB situation in Detroit, where Jahvid Best will either the Lions’ version of Reggie Bush or another talented player who had his career ended prematurely by concussions. We also Mikel LeShoure, who will either be the short-yardage and clock-killing hammer Detroit hoped he would be or just another injury/off-field incident waiting to happen. And finally, we have Kevin Smith – who has gone from the poster child of injury-riddled running backs to the healthiest fantasy RB option the team has.

Do you want more risk-reward players? Sure you do. But let’s be honest: Tennessee and Seattle do not know what to expect from Britt and Sidney Rice, respectively. Their talent alone makes them worthy of mid-round consideration, but their risk is only palatable after Round 10 in my opinion, which is why they are ranked after No. 120.

But instead of focusing on two extreme question marks, let’s focus on the most interesting subject more and more fantasy owners have given up trying to understand – the Washington Redskins’ RB situation. Mike Shanahan is now apparently under the belief that Roy Helu cannot handle the full load and, thus, has been rolling with Evan Royster as his first-team back while Tim Hightower attempts to make his return from an ACL tear. My best advice for Washington RBs – since there is so much fantasy potential in that backfield – is to make sure you have three RBs on your roster you believe in first before considering any Redskin runner. Despite the listing of Hightower atop the depth chart, Royster is getting most of the first-team reps while the Redskins seem to believe Helu is more of a third-down, change-of-pace RB. Based on talent, Helu is the player to own, but we all know Shanahan’s running philosophy by now: his zone-blocking schemes are never the problem, so if one back isn’t getting it done, it is on to the next one. I have Helu generously listed as the 35th-best RB, but that is really only because I have no reason to believe any of the runners behind him have his kind of fantasy upside.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster   HOU 26 7.92 19.0 285.5
2 2 RB Ray Rice   BAL 25 7.07 17.8 267.5
3 3 RB LeSean McCoy   PHI 24 6.72 17.3 260.0
4 1 QB Aaron Rodgers   GB 28 7.38 31.2 468.6
5 2 QB Tom Brady   NE 35 6.69 30.3 454.0
6 4 RB Chris Johnson   TEN 26 5.80 16.0 240.5
7 1 WR Calvin Johnson   DET 26 4.81 15.1 226.5
8 1 TE Jimmy Graham   NO 25 4.67 13.5 203.0
9 3 QB Drew Brees   NO 33 4.56 27.2 408.7
10 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 23 3.23 11.5 172.5
11 5 RB Darren McFadden OAK 25 5.36 15.4 185.0
12 6 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 24 5.14 15.1 211.5
13 7 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 5.77 16.0 208.0
14 8 RB Trent Richardson CLE 22 3.45 12.7 178.0
15 9 RB Jamaal Charles KC 25 3.11 12.2 183.5
16 10 RB Matt Forte   CHI 26 3.28 12.5 187.0
17 11 RB Steven Jackson   STL 29 3.51 12.8 192.0
18 4 QB Cam Newton   CAR 23 1.95 23.6 353.4
19 5 QB Matthew Stafford DET 24 3.34 25.5 382.8
20 2 WR Julio Jones ATL 23 2.72 12.1 170.0
21 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 23 2.45 11.8 176.5
22 12 RB M. Jones-Drew JAC 27 4.81 14.6 219.5
23 13 RB Doug Martin   TB 23 3.30 12.5 187.5
24 4 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 24 2.74 12.2 170.5
25 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald   ARI 29 2.00 11.1 167.0
26 6 WR Andre Johnson HOU 31 2.75 12.2 158.5
27 14 RB Fred Jackson   BUF 31 3.54 12.8 192.5
28 15 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 26 3.44 12.7 165.0
29 6 QB Matt Ryan   ATL 27 1.80 23.3 350.1
30 7 QB Michael Vick PHI 32 2.16 23.9 310.2
31 3 TE Antonio Gates SD 32 2.17 10.0 120.0
32 7 WR Victor Cruz   NYG 25 2.36 11.6 174.5
33 8 QB Tony Romo   DAL 32 1.97 23.6 353.8
34 8 WR Roddy White   ATL 30 2.26 11.5 172.5
35 16 RB Willis McGahee   DEN 30 2.59 11.5 172.5
36 17 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 26 2.38 11.2 168.0
37 18 RB Michael Turner   ATL 30 2.07 10.8 161.5
38 19 RB Peyton Hillis   KC 26 2.43 11.3 169.0
39 9 WR Dem. Thomas DEN 24 2.13 11.3 147.0
40 10 WR Marques Colston NO 29 2.12 11.3 169.5
41 11 WR A.J. Green   CIN 24 1.46 10.4 155.5
42 12 WR Greg Jennings   GB 28 2.10 11.3 169.0
43 13 WR Jeremy Maclin   PHI 24 2.05 11.2 168.0
44 4 TE Aaron Hernandez NE 22 2.17 10.0 140.0
45 20 RB Darren Sproles   NO 29 2.33 11.1 167.0
46 21 RB Reggie Bush MIA 27 2.16 10.9 141.5
47 22 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 27 1.48 9.9 139.0
48 14 WR Eric Decker   DEN 25 1.93 11.0 165.5
49 15 WR Steve Smith   CAR 33 1.11 9.9 148.0
50 16 WR Percy Harvin MIN 24 1.86 10.9 164.0
51 17 WR Brandon Marshall   CHI 28 1.79 10.8 162.5
52 18 WR Miles Austin   DAL 28 1.91 11.0 165.0
53 23 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 27 1.66 10.2 142.5
54 24 RB C.J. Spiller   BUF 25 1.41 9.8 147.5
55 19 WR Brandon Lloyd   NE 32 1.48 10.4 156.0
56 5 TE Vernon Davis   SF 28 1.48 9.0 135.5
57 6 TE Jermichael Finley   GB 25 1.44 9.0 134.5
58 20 WR Vincent Jackson   TB 29 1.63 10.6 159.0
59 24 WR Jordy Nelson   GB 27 1.39 10.3 154.0
60 22 WR Mike Wallace PIT 26 1.20 10.0 150.0
61 23 WR Steve Johnson   BUF 26 1.04 9.8 146.5
62 9 QB Peyton Manning DEN 36 0.24 21.1 317.1
63 10 QB Eli Manning   NYG 31 0.30 21.2 318.4
64 25 RB Stevan Ridley   NE 23 1.41 9.8 137.5
65 26 RB Isaac Redman PIT 27 1.39 9.8 147.0
66 24 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 27 1.23 10.0 150.5
67 27 RB Jonathan Stewart   CAR 25 1.13 9.4 141.5
68 11 QB Philip Rivers   SD 30 0.00 20.8 312.0
69 12 QB Jay Cutler   CHI 29 0.86 19.6 293.8
70 25 WR Wes Welker   NE 31 0.61 9.2 137.5
71 28 RB Frank Gore SF 29 0.65 8.8 122.5
72 26 WR DeSean Jackson   PHI 25 0.90 9.6 134.0
73 27 WR Nate Washington   TEN 29 0.68 9.3 139.0
74 7 TE Jason Witten   DAL 30 0.97 8.3 124.5
75 28 WR Denarius Moore   OAK 23 0.96 9.7 125.5
76 13 QB Robert Griffin III   WAS 22 0.80 19.7 275.4
77 8 TE Jermaine Gresham   CIN 24 0.66 7.9 118.0
78 9 TE Tony Gonzalez   ATL 36 0.47 7.6 114.0
79 10 TE Fred Davis   WAS 26 0.35 7.4 111.5
80 11 TE Brandon Pettigrew   DET 27 0.31 7.4 110.5
81 29 RB B. Green-Ellis   CIN 27 0.78 8.9 134.0
82 30 RB Mark Ingram NO 22 0.34 8.3 108.0
83 29 WR D. Heyward-Bey   OAK 25 0.27 8.7 121.5
84 30 WR Robert Meachem   SD 27 0.26 8.7 130.0
85 31 WR Antonio Brown   PIT 24 0.19 8.6 128.5
86 32 WR Torrey Smith   BAL 23 0.14 8.5 127.5
87 31 RB Pierre Thomas NO 27 0.00 7.8 117.5
88 32 RB Michael Bush   CHI 28 0.09 7.7 115.5
89 14 QB Josh Freeman   TB 24 0.29 20.4 305.8
90 15 QB Jake Locker   TEN 24 0.93 19.5 292.2
91 16 QB Andrew Luck   IND 22 1.85 18.2 272.7
92 33 RB Roy Helu WAS 23 2.36 11.2 134.0
93 34 RB James Starks GB 26 2.76 11.7 152.5
94 33 WR Titus Young   DET 23 0.00 8.3 124.5
95 34 WR Reggie Wayne   IND 33 0.52 7.6 113.5
96 35 WR Pierre Garcon   WAS 26 0.57 7.5 112.5
97 36 WR Austin Collie   IND 26 0.72 7.3 102.0
98 35 RB LeGarrette Blount   TB 25 0.62 7.0 90.5
99 36 RB Ben Tate   HOU 24 0.66 6.9 103.5
100 37 WR Greg Little   CLE 23 0.21 8.0 120.0
101 38 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 31 0.46 7.6 107.0
102 39 WR Kendall Wright   TEN 22 1.19 6.6 86.0
103 17 QB B. Roethlisberger   PIT 30 1.84 18.2 272.9
104 12 TE Jared Cook   TEN 25 0.00 6.9 104.0
105 13 TE Greg Olsen   CAR 27 0.35 6.4 96.5
106 14 TE Kyle Rudolph   MIN 22 0.35 6.4 96.5
107 37 RB Kevin Smith DET 25 2.25 4.7 60.5
108 38 RB Rashad Jennings   JAC 27 1.13 6.2 81.0
109 39 RB Beanie Wells ARI 24 0.42 8.4 109.5
110 40 RB Donald Brown IND 25 0.88 6.6 79.0
111 41 RB DeAngelo Williams   CAR 29 0.24 7.5 112.5
112 42 RB Ryan Williams ARI 22 0.46 7.2 100.5
113 43 RB Toby Gerhart   MIN 25 0.54 7.1 106.0
114 44 RB Evan Royster WAS 24 0.85 9.0 126.5
115 40 WR Mike Williams   TB 25 0.00 8.3 124.5
116 45 RB David Wilson   NYG 21 1.32 6.0 83.5
117 41 WR Vincent Brown   SD 23 1.48 6.2 93.0
118 18 QB Matt Schaub   HOU 31 2.22 17.7 265.0
119 19 QB Christian Ponder MIN 24 1.21 19.1 229.1
120 46 RB Vick Ballard   IND 22 0.16 7.6 114.0
121 47 RB Shane Vereen   NE 23 0.56 7.0 91.5
122 48 RB Jacquizz Rodgers   ATL 23 1.53 5.7 85.0
123 49 RB Jahvid Best DET 23 1.94 10.6 127.0
124 15 TE Brent Celek   PHI 27 0.40 6.4 95.5
125 16 TE Jacob Tamme   DEN 27 0.49 6.2 93.5
126 17 TE Dustin Keller   NYJ 27 0.52 6.2 93.0
127 18 TE Coby Fleener   IND 23 0.71 5.9 89.0
128 50 RB Alex Green GB 24 2.17 4.8 71.5
129 42 WR Laurent Robinson   JAC 27 0.38 7.8 101.0
130 43 WR Santonio Holmes   NYJ 28 0.59 7.5 112.0
131 44 WR Kenny Britt TEN 23 0.70 7.3 58.5
132 45 WR Randy Moss   SF 35 0.75 7.2 108.5
133 51 RB Mikel Leshoure DET 22 0.55 7.1 70.5
134 46 WR Justin Blackmon   JAC 22 0.78 7.2 108.0
135 47 WR Michael Crabtree   SF 24 0.82 7.1 107.0
136 48 WR Sidney Rice SEA 26 1.08 6.8 88.0
137 49 WR Randall Cobb   GB 22 1.89 5.6 84.5
138 20 QB Carson Palmer   OAK 32 3.14 16.4 245.3
139 21 QB Joe Flacco   BAL 27 2.82 16.8 252.2
140 52 RB Mike Goodson   OAK 26 2.62 4.1 62.0
141 53 RB Montario Hardesty   CLE 25 2.56 4.2 50.5
142 19 TE Owen Daniels   HOU 29 0.85 5.7 86.0
143 22 QB Alex Smith   SF 28 2.00 18.0 269.5
144 23 QB Andy Dalton   CIN 24 3.20 16.3 244.2
145 24 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick   BUF 29 3.16 16.3 245.0
146 54 RB Kendall Hunter   SF 23 2.14 4.8 72.0
147 55 RB Isaiah Pead   STL 22 2.07 4.9 73.5
148 56 RB Jonathan Dwyer   PIT 23 2.18 4.8 47.5
149 50 WR Malcom Floyd SD 30 0.05 8.4 100.5
150 51 WR Jonathan Baldwin   KC 23 1.60 6.0 90.5

Since I will be spending each of the next two weeks discussing rising and falling stock on my Big Boards, I will keep the non-PPR section shorter and relevant to the players most directly affected by the change in format. I will try to provide insight on players that I feel are rated much higher/lower than I expected.

Top 25: New Bucs HC Greg Schiano (or more accurately, new OC Mike Sullivan) may become the new best friends of fantasy owners this season. Why? Because there is a distinct possibility that two Tampa Bay running backs are every-week starters (if your league uses a flex position) in fantasy, just one year after it was difficult to say that about one. All offseason, the Bucs have been promoting their plan to be a physical running team and have backed it up with some of its additions, most notably LG Carl Nicks and rookie RB Doug Martin. Based on how I saw him run in the first preseason game, LeGarrette Blount deserves credit for buying in to the new regime and looking a lot more like he did in 2010 as opposed to the 2011 version of himself. But I’m more convinced by the day that Martin will earn about a 60:40 split of the workload in the backfield on a team that will try to get its running backs well over 400 touches. As my projections suggested a couple of weeks ago, I expect the Bucs will rush for over 2,000 yards as a team. As the all-purpose back in that kind of attack with no injury concerns, it is time to start thinking about Martin as a darkhorse fantasy RB1 candidate.

Here’s a phrase I never thought I would say: Larry Fitzgerald scares me. Here’s why: I don’t want to play against the fantasy team he ends up with in my leagues, but I’m not entirely sure how much I want him on my team either. And it is too bad because with competent quarterbacking, he is the best bet to rival Calvin Johnson as the top fantasy receiver year in and year out. But my issue with him (or his situation, to be more accurate) is that Arizona’s offensive line has been horrible this preseason, which is just a continuation of the theme that has played out for years now in the desert. Going back to his Eagle days, Kevin Kolb already had a predisposition to leave the pocket early and it has only gotten worse since he knows he can’t trust his line in Arizona. John Skelton is less accurate and less mobile, which goes a long way in explaining why the two are “competing” for the right to force the ball to Fitzgerald.

26-50: Apparently, it must be in my nature to go against the grain. And there is no doubt that I have done just that in this initial Big Board by placing A.J. Green in the fourth round. I suppose the argument can be made that any running back with the inside track to 200 touches and a pulse should go in the first three rounds, but big-play receivers are highly sought after in this format. In retrospect, the biggest issues I have with the Bengals’ second-year receiver are his lack of advantageous matchups, the conservative nature of the offense and Andy Dalton. As savvy as Dalton is, he is the second-worst quarterback for any receiver ranked ahead of him (Kolb-Skelton win that prize for holding back Fitzgerald). Furthermore, OC Jay Gruden doesn’t appear to be willing to change much of anything in terms of opening up the offense. While the lack of a surefire WR2 opposite Green probably makes that decision easier for Gruden, I’m not sure his devotion to the running game is the answer with the unexciting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott duo.

I’m going to make one simple plea to fantasy owners: if you choose to pass up Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees in Rounds 1 and 2, do yourself a favor and grab Matt Ryan. For some reason, Ryan has been seen as a disappointment through four seasons despite the fact he has missed just two games to begin his four-year career and improved his fantasy numbers each season. People looking for an excuse as to why he isn’t “elite” yet need to understand that conservative ex-OC Mike Mularkey probably held his numbers back more than anything. (Only twice in Mularkey’s 10 years of coaching have his charges finished inside the top 10 in passing yards while all four of his Atlanta offenses finished in the top 11 in rushing attempts.) As my No. 29 overall player on both boards, I feel I am probably projecting him at his floor. If you still don’t like Ryan for some reason, look at it this way: do you believe Roddy White and Julio Jones will each finish as top 10 receivers this year and Tony Gonzalez is still a top 10 fantasy tight end? Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ryan approaches Matthew Stafford’s numbers from last season in 2012.

51-100: It’s not a PPR vs. non-PPR discussion unless we mention Michael Turner and Shonn Greene. Yes, I realize that Turner is inside the top 50, but since the two are so stylistically similar, it is hard not to discuss the two as a pair. I moved Turner up about a round over the weekend after taking another look at his year-end schedule. (Remember, the plan is to keep him fresh for the end of the season, just the time owners want their backs to pick it up…) While his workload will drop dramatically in favor of Jacquizz Rodgers and the passing game, Turner will not be abandoned either. He is still the clear goal-line option for the team and figures to be more efficient with all the spread looks Atlanta figures to incorporate.

Lo and behold, another year is upon us and I’m still not thrilled about Greene. When a back with his potential workload is ranked this low, it speaks to a number of weaknesses. In Greene’s case, his shortcomings are a lack of big-play ability, poor offensive line play and an overall lack of contribution to the passing game. Throw in Tim Tebow as the heavy favorite for short-yardage scores and you have a plodding back behind an average offensive line that will probably lose third-down work to Bilal Powell and goal-line carries to his backup quarterback. If you are drafting Greene, you are doing it because he has a great chance to be among the league leaders in rushing attempts. Otherwise, spare yourself the agony and draft a higher-upside player.

Oh, what to do with Ben Tate. Foster’s owners from last season already know his value. And for those owners, he probably needs to be considered the top RB3 and should be drafted as such. However, what is Tate’s stand-alone value? In the 13 games that Foster started, Tate rushed for 641 yards and three TDs. According to my analysis last season, Houston had mostly a neutral schedule last season and the Foster-Tate duo pretty much dominated it; this season’s matchups feature zero reds and are particularly favorable at the end. The Texans won’t be able to answer the question marks on the right side of their offensive line until the start of the season, but a team with a win-now mentality that relies on running the ball would not have decided to promote from within if it didn’t believe in its replacements – RG Antoine Caldwell and RT Rashad Butler. While Houston can’t expect its new duo to match the level of play it received from RT Eric Winston and RG Mike Brisiel initially, it may catch a break from its schedule. Tate could actually enjoy slightly more consistency in fantasy this season and finish with worse year-end numbers if Foster stays healthy. Either way, this is a ground game worth investing in once again.

101-150: Perhaps the biggest surprise on both lists is the low ranking for Ben Roethlisberger. Although new OC Todd Haley has stated he wants to focus on high-percentage passes in his offense, the Steelers have a fair amount of big-play potential in their attack. The problem is the most explosive element – Mike Wallace – is nowhere to be found as we enter the second week of the preseason. “Big Ben” is already a low-end fantasy QB1 with a full complement of weapons, but expecting him to play at that level without Wallace – and to a lesser extent, Rashard Mendenhall – is asking too much. As productive as Antonio Brown was last season, he cannot be asked to carry the passing game in Wallace’s absence. And while Brown is probably capable of posting serviceable fantasy WR2 numbers in Wallace’s absence, I highly doubt Pittsburgh wants to find out as Emmanuel Sanders is way too prone to injury and Jerricho Cotchery is best suited to spot duty at this point of his career. Wallace is the one player on this offense that scares defenses, so until he returns, Roethlisberger and the entire offense takes a huge hit in fantasy.

One of my favorite under-the-radar picks for this season is Colts RB Vick Ballard. While many folks tuned into the Indianapolis-St. Louis preseason game over the weekend solely to watch Andrew Luck, I wanted to do that plus check out if I gather more evidence to support my initial feeling regarding the Mississippi State rookie. To say the least, I was impressed, especially with his lateral quickness – something that we didn’t see from him a lot in college. While the team has backed Donald Brown all offseason as a “three-down back” and a player that “deserves to be the No. 1 right now”, he has mostly shown himself to be a big-play back that isn’t particularly durable or a good fit in the smash-mouth offense new HC Chuck Pagano wants. This still has all the makings of a committee attack, but Ballard has a great shot at leading this team in rushing in my opinion. Because I expect Mewelde Moore to see the majority of the team’s third-down opportunities, Brown may get squeezed as a player some fantasy owners will be targeting as a potential mid-round sleeper pick.

Let the debates begin…

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.