Therefore, in anticipation of my “Big Boards” that will be released over the next several Tuesdays, I thought it would be helpful to provide each of you with my most updated projections for the upcoming season with a brief explanation included for each team.

Note: Players whose names are in italics have seen their projections changed since the initial division-by-division breakdown.

(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

AFC EAST

Jackson’s hand injury forced me to go conservative on his Week 1 matchup. Lynch, who has an ankle injury of his own to deal with, appears set to take Jackson’s workload if he is limited or must sit out vs. Miami. But make no mistake – Jackson is the unquestioned RB1 in Buffalo and Spiller is his complement, much like the Saints’ duo of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. The only other change is the addition of Stupar at TE and subtraction of Shawn Nelson. After flashing his potential earlier in the offseason, Nelson has reportedly regressed (and now is suspended for the first four games of the season) while Stupar has stepped up. Given the offensive line issues in Buffalo, Stupar may have low-end TE2 appeal at some point, but no one outside of Evans from the Bills’ passing game is even worth drafting.

It’s hard to believe the originator of the “Wildcat” offense, QB coach David Lee, hasn’t been able to get anything out of Pat White. But whatever the reason is for his lack of development, White appears to be on the roster bubble. Either way, the major change for the Dolphins is that I gave Brown one more healthy game and beefed up his rushing numbers a bit, although I believe Williams is still the RB to own this season in Miami.

The key changes made to the Patriots projections were to Moss’ final numbers. He has reportedly been quite serious about making his contract-year push in 2010 and it is kind of a scary thought what he is capable of when he is dialed in. Even at 33, he is still one of the best WRs in the game and capable of winning fantasy games some weeks almost singlehandedly. I still believe Welker is a poor bet to last the season and his totals reflect that. When healthy, he is a near-lock for 100+ receptions with Brady in this offense. With Torry Holt no longer a concern, Tate should be comfortable in his role as the WR4. His upside is obviously limited with so much quality in front of him, but should Welker’s knee not hold up, Tate would have some appeal in deeper leagues.

I have gone back and forth several times on the subject of Greene’s long-term prospects of remaining healthy for a full 16-game schedule. After some considerable debate, I’m back to believing he will miss considerable time and need Tomlinson to pick up the slack. However, both players’ outlooks have changed marginally since my initial projection.

AFC NORTH

Sometimes, mistakes happen – such was the case with Flacco. I use a number of formulas in my Excel spreadsheet to put together these projections and after comparing the numbers I had down for Flacco to my expectations of him, I went back to the formula to see if it was correct. Sure enough, Stallworth’s numbers were absent from the equation. Obviously, that oversight has been fixed. The only other alteration was adding another TD to Heap’s total.

Palmer gets a healthy 230-yard, two-TD boost to his overall numbers as the Bengals added Owens shortly after my AFC North projections was released. As one might expect, the move had a trickle-down affect on the rest of the Cincinnati receivers. Unless Palmer is truly a shell of what he once was (in other words, if his elbow has been an issue all along), I don’t see any reason why Ochocinco and Owens can’t post low-end WR2 fantasy numbers. As for Antonio Bryant, it is starting to sound more and more like the Bengals will be forced to place him on IR or release him since his surgically-repaired knee continues to be an issue.

In regards to Cleveland, I have very little to say – I added three interceptions to Delhomme’s total. Perhaps he finds himself again in the West Coast offense, but even in Delhomme’s heyday, he threw a lot of picks and that was a healthy Steve Smith at his disposal. Massaquoi may end up being the playmaker in Cleveland, but expecting a 35-year-old QB coming off a horrendous season to turn it around is a bit more risk than I am willing to accept.

Perhaps it is my background as a psychology major in college, but when commissioner Roger Goodell states that Roethlisberger has done more than necessary to prove that he has gotten his life “back on track”, it sure sounds like he is leaning toward reducing Big Ben’s suspension from six to four games. Therefore, every player saw his final numbers changed as a result of Roethlisberger’s good behavior. In a subject that I’ll touch on more next week, it is time to panic if you are either a Mendenhall owner or plan on becoming one soon. I fully expect Isaac Redman to assume goal-line duties for the Steelers, which obviously sends Mendenhall’s fantasy stock downward.

AFC South