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Inside The Matchup: Wk 4
9/29/07

One of the best tools that FF Today provides is the fantasy football points vs. feature and, more specifically, the remaining Strength of Schedule. Using this feature, it is my hope to augment these features and refine them even further. Over time, it should be proven in this column that different styles of players score differently against different opponents. For example, perhaps a possession receiver makes for a better play against a certain defense as opposed to a burner despite the fact that the defensive back guarding him is considered slow. Given the high number of committee running backs and teams without a clear-cut #1 receiver in the NFL, I feel this analysis will help owners with roster decisions throughout this season.

QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included. Also, for the first weeks, projected fantasy points allowed will be used as teams have yet to establish any trends. After the first month of the season, this column will take on the look it had last season as there will be enough information to start analyzing trends.

Bye Weeks: Jaguars, Saints, Titans, Redskins

BAL @ CLE | CHI @ DET | GB @ MIN | HOU @ ATL | NYJ @ BUF | OAK @ MIA | STL @ DAL
SEA @ SF | TB @ CAR | DEN @ IND | KC @ SD | PIT @ ARI | PHI @ NYG | NE @ CIN

Ravens @ Browns
Steve McNair/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 28.7/34.9/8.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22

Steve McNairPassing Game Thoughts: Imagine that...the Browns go on the road, and they actually fare well against an opponent’s passing game, holding the Raiders to 226 passing yards and one touchdown in Week 3. It's probably a pretty safe bet that the Ravens will not come close to matching the # posted by the Steelers and the Bengals in Weeks 1-2. However, there is a trend to be aware of, as we head into Week 4 - Baltimore has attempted at least 35 passes each game, so after three weeks, we can safely assume that HC Brian Billick is following through on his promise to be more aggressive through the air. Mason was once again the Ravens’ leading receiver in Week 3, but we finally saw some production from Mark Clayton. While five catches for 34 yards is hardly groundbreaking, it goes to show that he was quite hindered by his ankle injury in the first two weeks. As a result, expect Clayton to resume his duties as the #1 receiver as he gets closer to 100%.

Running Game Thoughts: To borrow a line from Dennis Green, he is who we thought he was. While he has yet to cross the stripe on the ground, McGahee he has won over 100 total yards in each of his first three games. And while he has yet to eclipse 100 yards rushing in any game, his rushing totals of 77, 97 and 98 through three weeks are pretty consistent. Conversely, the Browns allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of the first three weeks, including over 150 total yards in each last two weeks to opposing RBs. So as Baltimore heads in the Cleveland in Week 4, the stage is set for McGahee to have his best game as a Raven.

Projections:
Steve McNair: 185 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Mark Clayton: 30 rec
Derrick Mason: 70 rec
Todd Heap: 55 rec/1 TD
Willis McGahee: 105 rush/20 rec/1 TD

Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Bengals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.6/30.3/2.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 8.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Baltimore has shown some vulnerability in the passing game, giving up subsequently more yards each week. And what may have to do more with subsequently more passing attempts each week is the fact that the Ravens are surrendering only 3.2 yards per carry. What also affected Baltimore's passing defense recently is the absence of CB Samari Rolle. Perhaps that – more than anything else – is what allowed Anquan Boldin to haul in 14 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns last week. So while Cleveland possesses a couple of tall, very capable receivers in Edwards and Jurevicius, they are not at the level of Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Cleveland's offense is as balanced as it has been in years though, so it's not as if they can't pass on defense, even against a defense as good as Baltimore's. The one good thing the Browns have going in their favor is that the Ravens have yet to see a tight end as good as Kellen Winslow. If Rolle can return in Week 4 to contain Jurevicius or Edwards, expect the former Hurricane (Winslow) to have a fairly good day.

Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned above, Baltimore is among the most difficult teams in the league to run against. A lot is going to be made out to Jamal Lewis playing against his former team, but it'll mean very little if the former Raven can make it to the second level of the defense, something he'll have trouble doing against Baltimore. As mentioned last week, this will begin a four-week stretch in which his owners cannot either play him or do not want to play him, as he faces the Patriots in Week 5 before Cleveland takes their bye in Week 7.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 230 pass/1 TD/2 INT/15 rush
Braylon Edwards: 70 rec/1 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 40 rec
Kellen Winslow: 60 rec
Jamal Lewis: 50 rush/15 rec

Bears @ Lions
Brian Griese/Bernard Berrian/Muhsin Muhammad/Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Cedric Benson (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 25.6/25/2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 37

Brian GriesePassing Game Thoughts: Griese gets his first shot at being the Bears’ signal-caller for the indefinite future. For a debut, there is perhaps no better team that he could be facing the Lions. Philadelphia, which it struggled to establish any kind of continuity in the first two weeks, put 56 points on the same defense just seven days ago. Certainly, I'm not suggesting that Chicago is going to repeat that, but one only has to look back to last year against a similar Detroit secondary to see that Rex Grossman carved them up for five touchdowns versus no interceptions in two games, including a four-TD performance in Week 2 of the 2006 season. Regarding the wideouts, for those that are not counting (and excluding Minnesota, which has very little in the passing game), that's 21 catches and 354 yards allowed for four touchdowns given up to # 1 WRs in two weeks. Expect similar results in Week 4 as Bernard Berrian should absolutely go off against this secondary. As fantasy owners well know, if one receiver is having a pretty good game, it's very likely his quarterback is too. So, if you need a one-week replacement for Drew Brees or Vince Young, you could do much worse than (yeah, I said it) Griese.

Running Game Thoughts: As much as a sieve as the Lions passing defense has been, the total yardage numbers they have allowed to the running back position are as equally mind-boggling. In three weeks, they have allowed 689 total yards and seven touchdowns, making just about every running back a good play against this defense, especially those who can catch the ball well out of the backfield. While Benson hasn't exactly shown an all-around game and probably will never be a great all-around player, expect a fair share of Benson and Adrian Peterson in this contest to balance the offense and give Griese early confidence with some short passes to his backs to start the game.

Projections:
Brian Griese: 240 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Bernard Berrian: 100 rec/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 55 rec/1 TD
Desmond Clark: 25 rec
Greg Olsen: 30 rec/1 TD
Cedric Benson: 85 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Tatum Bell/Doug Duckett (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.5/13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Given the number of injuries to the Bears defense, it would make sense of the Lions are going to have as much success as they ever would against Chicago. Keep in mind though, Kitna was sacked nine times last week and will not be able to endure that kind of punishment much longer. Understand too, the Bears are a better defensive unit than the Eagles. This contest should feature big plays both ways, but expect Chicago to get more of them than Detroit. Johnson, Johnson (if he can play) and McDonald are all slightly above-average plays, while Furrey gets a big boost only if Johnson is unable to go.

Running Game Thoughts: It's quite obvious that OC Mike Martz has little interest in establishing any kind of balance, running the ball eight times versus 46 passes attempts against the Eagles. (Tell me something I didn’t know, right?) Obviously, much of that had to do with the score, but even trailing as early as Detroit did last week, offensive coordinators tend to fall into more than eight run plays during the course of game. One positive thing fantasy owners can take out of Week 3’s game though is that the Lions appear to be interested in giving Jones some of the goal line love, even with him less than 100%. That doesn’t mean I’m recommending him, just saying to make sure to keep an eye on how this thing plays out.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 280 pass/3 TD/2 INT
Roy Williams: 80 rec/1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 55 rec/1 TD
Mike Furrey: 50 rec
Shaun McDonald: 55 rec/1 TD
Tatum Bell: 25 rush
Kevin Jones: 30 rush/30 rec

Packers @ Vikings
Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/Bubba Franks/Donald Lee
Vernand Morency (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.8/22.1/6.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.1

Passing Game Thoughts: As many aerial fireworks as we can expect from the Lions-Bears game, this game figures to be just the opposite. The Vikings defense has shown to be quite stout this season, allowing no more than 20 points in any game. So, for those fantasy owners who were looking to Week 4 as a good start for Favre earlier in the season may have to reconsider. Of course, considering the struggles of the Vikings offense to score points, Favre may only need to lead the Packers to one touchdown drive all game. The receivers that have scored against the Vikings defense so far this season are all large wideouts that have that special ability to ouDougump and outmuscle opposing CBs (Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe). The closest thing to Packers have to this is Jones, who may make a sneaky play for those owners who may be hurting due to a bye week. Whatever you expect in this game, don't expect it to be high-scoring.

Running Game Thoughts: One reason why Favre has had such a great beginning to the season is in large part due to a running game that has been below average, if even that. In fact, DeShawn Wynn's 50 yards rushing in Week 2 tops any other output from a Packer RB. Conversely, Warrick Dunn's 55 yards in Week 1 is the best mark put up against the Vikings run defense, bearing in mind that Minnesota is the same team that just held Larry Johnson to 42 yards on 24 carries. Unless you are totally desperate, look elsewhere for a RB this week.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 250 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Donald Driver: 85 rec
Greg Jennings: 55 rec/1 TD
James Jones: 40 rec/1 TD
Donald Lee: 30 rec
Bubba Franks: 10 rec
Vernand Morency: 40 rush/20 rec

Kelly Holcomb/Troy Williamson/Bobby Wade/Visante Shiancoe
Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2/21.5/6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like Minnesota, as good as the Green Bay’s defense as been, bigger and physical receivers have scored against them. Unlike Minnesota, the Packers have a future Hall of Fame quarterback taking snaps. Three games into the season, it looks like the offense lives and dies with Peterson. Once defenses adjust to Peterson, the Vikings are hard-pressed to move the ball at all for the remainder of the game. Wade has led this WR corps in fantasy points each week and figures to do so again this week. As most owners have already realized, this is no place to be looking for a diamond in the rough, at least until the offense opens up or Jackson shows that he can throw for two touchdowns in a single game.

Running Game Thoughts: Peterson is taken quite well to the lead back role through three weeks, however, it is a matter of time before Taylor starts taken reps from him. But it is fair to say that Peterson has shown he can carry the load when needed. Another thing Peterson has shown us is an all-around game, something that each of the three backs that have already faced Green Bay also have displayed. (To illustrate the struggles of the Chargers offense, Tomlinson was the least successful of the three backs against the Packers defense from a yardage perspective, but he was the first back to get into the end zone against the Green Bay defense.) Perhaps it took the effort against San Diego for people to realize is how good the Packer defense is going to be this season, but with that now known, expect Peterson to have his worst total yardage day so far this season in Week 4. With Taylor likely coming back to steal snaps this week, look for that last statement to become fact.

Projections:
Kelly Holcomb: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Troy Williamson: 30 rec
Bobby Wade: 50 rec
Visante Shiancoe: 25 rec/1 TD
Chester Taylor: 50 rush/1 TD/25 yds rec
Adrian Peterson: 65 yds rushing/25 yds rec

Texans @ Falcons
Matt Schaub/Kevein Walter/Andre Davis/Owen Daniels
Ron Dayne (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Panthers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 31.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/13.1/6.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.1

Passing Game Thoughts: If there was any time that you would want Andre Johnson playing against Atlanta, it would be this week given that Hall is being punished for his transgressions last week jawing back and forth for Carolina WR Steve Smith, which cost his team 67 yards in penalties. (Even at this late press time, we do not know Hall’s exact status, but he does not look to be suspended for more than a quarter.) But Johnson owners are not so lucky. What is apparent from last week was that Schaub can be an effective fantasy QB without Johnson, not great, but an effective #2. That's certainly is not to say that the offense can cope without Johnson long-term, but that by spreading it out (Schaub found 10 different receivers in Week 3), the offense can still move. Assuming any of their running backs are healthy enough to play, expect Houston to follow the blueprint of the Falcons first three foes, pounding away at the defense long enough to tire them out as the Atlanta offense fails to mount much of a scoring threat.

Running Game Thoughts: Each week, teams are running the ball more against the Falcons than in the week before. The extension of that trend would be pretty much a given if Green and Dayne were completely healthy, but for all intents and purposes, the Texans may trump the 31 carries the Panthers had against Atlanta in Week 3, no matter who starts in their backfield this week. As far as the Falcons go, they have a defense that has played good, but is not opportunistic enough to make up for the struggles of their offense. The Texans, on the other hand, seem to be more than the sum of their parts, which makes one think that this team can succeed despite the absence of Johnson and Green, the two players that most people would have suggested the Texans cannot live without before the season started. All that said, keep your eye on the Sunday inactives and start Green if he is available and if he’s not, play Dayne and expect a fair #2 RB-type of performance.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 235 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Andre Davis: 60 rec
Kevin Walter: 45 rec
Owen Daniels: 60 rec/1 TD
Ahman Green: 70 rush/20 rec
Ron Dayne: 45 rush/1 TD

Joey Harrington/Joe Horn/Michael Jenkins/Alge Crumpler
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.4/22.5/6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.1

Warrick DunnPassing Game Thoughts: To be fair, the Panthers pass defense has been far from what many expected this season, at least to this point. So while it may draw a yawn, keep an eye out on the Falcons passing game for this week. Harrington to White as increased in popularity each week. Believe me, White makes me as skeptical as the next guy. But it is encouraging that he is increased in targets each week as well, topping out at nine against Carolina in Week 3. The Texans were exposed to the Steve Smith show in Week 2, but have otherwise kept passing games in check, including the Colts last week. As a result, don't expect White to continue seeing more touches and, subsequently, receive more catches this week than he did last week. This may mean more looks for Crumpler in intermediate passing game, something similar to what else was able to do last week against the Texans.

Running Game Thoughts: Houston has been very impressive stopping the run this season, holding opponents to a 3.5 yards per carry average. Given the sad state of affairs on Atlanta's offensive line, it would be foolish to expect that number to move upward in this game, either, as Dunn has run for 50 yards in each game, but no more than 55 – all the while, averaging just 3.5 yards/carry. What is frustrating to owners of Norwood is that he is continually showing more explosion and better average per carry than Dunn but is not being rewarded for it in terms of getting more carries. Perhaps this changes as the season moves along, but until that time, owners must continue to remain patient and/or look for other options via trade or free agency.

Projections:
Joey Harrington: 265 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Roddy White: 70 rec
Michael Jenkins: 40 rec
Alge Crumpler: 60 rec/1 TD
Warrick Dunn: 50 yds rushing/20 yds receiving
Jerious Norwood: 50 yds rushing/20 yds receiving

Jets @ Bills
Chad Pennington/Laveranues Coles/Jerricho Cotchery
Thomas Jones (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.2/29.47.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week, the dam finally broke. A defense that has given up an obscene number of yards finally gave up with four touchdowns to Tom Brady. Through three games, the Bills defense is surrendering 286 passing yards per game. All of this bodes well for Pennington, who has yet to throw an interception. Good deep threats (Javon Walker, Randy Moss) had pretty good games against Buffalo, meaning Pennington may lean more heavily on Coles this week than Cotchery. Though it is far from a high percentage play, tight end Chris Baker might find his way into the end zone yet again, as he is scored in consecutive weeks, and the Bills have allowed an opposing tight end to score in consecutive weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: The first three weeks did not go all that well for Jones, who will get to see a Buffalo defense that has allowed an average of 24 fantasy points per game to the RB position. Perhaps worse for the Bills defense is that they are being gashed for 5.3 yards per carry and 201 total yards per game to the running back position. These averages are nearly 2 yards per game better and double, respectively, of what Jets RBs have done thus far. As a result, expect the New York running game to finish somewhere in the middle and have their best fantasy day of the season.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 290 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Laveranues Coles: 110 rec/1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 85 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 100 rush/2 TD/20 rec

Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Marshawn Lynch (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Ravens
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 40.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7/21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 26.6

Marshawn LynchPassing Game Thoughts: With regular quarterback J.P. Losman out for two weeks, expect a very heavy dose of the running game in the interim. This means once again, that everybody involved in the passing game is a questionable play, including Evans. That said, look for Evans to have his best week as Edwards showed himself about as well as any rookie quarterback could have given the situation, being a first-year player against the Patriots defense. As we all well know by now, Evans runs hot and cold, but a lot of that is dictated by the matchup, something he has going in his favor this week. This will be the first week that the offensive line should allow the quarterback enough protection, meaning Evans should have the time to make it downfield to get free on one of his patented deep routes.

Running Game Thoughts: I have to admit, Lynch’s four yard per carry average through three games – and against two very tough defenses at that – leaves me very impressed. The road gets considerably easier for the rookie this week against a Jets defense that is giving up 166 total yards to the RB position on average through three weeks. The one thing the Jets can expect a lot of this week the screen pass, something Miami repeatedly was able to beat New York on last week. So, Lynch owners can expect quite a few yards via passing game this week.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 220 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Lee Evans: 90 rec/1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 60 rec/1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush/1 TD/45 rec

Raiders @ Dolphins
Daunte Culpepper/Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry/Zach Miller
LaMont Jordan (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.3/13.1/5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7

LaMont JordanPassing Game Thoughts: It looks C-Pepp will get his first start as a Raider against the very team that just dropped him over the summer. What has become quite clear is that Curry is each quarterback’s #1 WR, relegating Porter to backup or waiver wire status in most fantasy leagues. It is worth noting that after one Week 1's debacle in which Miami allowed Antwan Randle El to post 162 yards receiving, the Dolphins defense has stiffened and held each of the next two top receivers to 100 yards, including such stalwarts as Terrell Owens, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. The Dolphins have surrendered a couple short gimme touchdowns to the TE position over the last two weeks, so Miller may be worth a shot if you are desperate at the position due to a bye week or injury.

Running Game Thoughts: Has anybody had an easier run of defenses than Jordan? In successive weeks, the former Terrapin has faced three of the top 9 defenses in terms of giving up the most points to RBs, including this game. The lone exception, Denver, has been far from stellar themselves. All four of the defenses Jordan will have faced after four weeks are currently giving up 18 points per game to the running back position. What does it all mean? Well, sell high, very high – that's what it means. After their upcoming bye week, the Raiders face San Diego, Kansas City and Tennessee in succession plus Jordan will have to be concerned with the return of Dominic Rhodes from his four-game suspension. In fact, be willing to sell Jordan one week ahead of schedule, just to maximize what you can get return for him. That said, if you are selling him just because of Rhodes’ imminent return, you're probably making a mistake. As productive as he has been through four games, HC Lane Kiffin isn't going to just cut his workload in half. Therefore, this may also present a good buy-low opportunity for those owners who feel Rhodes' return will automatically reduce his workload by more than 50%. I just don’t see that happening.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper: 245 pass/2 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Jerry Porter: 40 rec
Ronald Curry: 90 rec/1 TD
Zach Miller: 40 rec/1 TD
LaMont Jordan: 115 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Trent Green/Chris Chambers/Marty Booker/David Martin
Ronnie Brown/Jesse Chatman (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Browns
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23/29.6/4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18

Passing Game Thoughts: I find it kind of intriguing that considering Oakland has a reputation for having a wonderful defensive backfield that teams have been so willing to attack them to the air so far this season. In each game, Oakland has picked off two passes – no more, no less. This brings us to Green, who is throwing just about as much now as he was during his heyday in Kansas City. Beware of the success that Green had throwing to Brown in Week 3, as many of those yards came on screen passes that the Jets just could not seem to figure out. That's not to say that Brown and possibly Jesse Chatman will not get their fair share of receiving yards, but expecting an LT-type performance from Brown again would be foolish. In each of the last two weeks, the Raiders have given up a touchdown to the WR who was able to get downfield the best, meaning Chambers could very well once again have success. The tight end position has not had the type of numbers I would've expected from a coach that made finding an athletic tight end a high priority and one that just got done coaching Antonio Gates. That said, David Martin did have its best week as a Dolphin last week, so more looks his way could be in the offing.

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy football is a challenging enough hobby the way it is, given the secret nature and psychology of a lot of coaches’ minds as well as the slanted information that we receive from mini-camps, practice and the like. What I do not appreciate as a fantasy owner is to be given information after two weeks, put together some introductory premises about how the first half the season is going to go, and then have all my opinions thrown out the door in Week 3 by a coach that comes seemingly not decide whether or not he wants to give his star running back the full load of carries or wants to split them. Mind you, I am a big believer in what Brown can do, but Week 3 is no time for the HC to be deciding that now is the time to give his running back the full workload, that is what training camp as for. All that being said, I don't think we've seen the last of Chatman wrecking havoc on Brown's workload. In terms of this game, the Raiders are right in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Until we get more evidence, I’m going to lean on the side of caution with Brown. Trade him if you can if you have the depth and can get something reasonable in return. I have to believe he is going to be inconsistent all season long.

Projections:
Trent Green: 245 pass/2 TD/3 INT
Chris Chambers: 90 rec/1 TD
Marty Booker: 45 rec/1 TD
David Martin: 30 rec
Ronnie Brown: 70 rush/1 TD/35 rec
Jesse Chatman: 40 rush/25 rec

Rams @ Cowboys
Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew Bennett/Randy McMichael
Brian Leonard (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 32.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 43.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.2/28.9/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.2

Passing Game Thoughts: First, the good news. Bulger faces the easiest defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks thus far. While only former QBs may be able to tell us how painful it is to try to run an offense in the NFL with two broken ribs, one can only imagine that has a lot to do with Bulger's early struggles. It's fair to say the Cowboys new aggressive scheme will lend itself to more big plays on both sides, meaning Holt, Bruce and Bennett should be in line for decent days against an average Dallas secondary. While his early numbers are far from what many expected, his only true poor game was last week in which they dealt with less than ideal conditions in Tampa, not to mention the aforementioned injuries. Bear in mind, the Rams have been as affected by the injury bug as much as any team has been so far this season. For those looking for a silver lining, the schedule does look somewhat favorable over the next five weeks for St. Louis, with only Baltimore sticking out as an elite defensive unit.

Running Game Thoughts: Now the bad news. Whether the offensive line was in shambles or Steven Jackson was starting out slow due to not getting any work in the preseason or both, Jackson was and still is this offense's bell cow. Fortunately for the Rams, they were able to give Leonard a long look in the preseason, finding out he would be, at the very least, a reliable short-term option in the event Jackson was to get hurt. The former Rutgers standout figures to post at least numbers equitable to the ones Jackson was compiling through three weeks. In all honesty, I expect little change in the Rams attack unless score gets out of hand early, which only means Leonard should contribute more than passing game than what is protected here.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 280 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 90 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 65 rec
Drew Bennett: 60 rec/1 TD
Randy McMichael: 20 rec
Brian Leonard: 70 rush/1TD/35 rec

Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Terry Glenn/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.4/16.3/2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 27.7

Tony RomoPassing Game Thoughts: The last two weeks, the Rams defense has been a buzzkill for those fantasy owners looking for cheap quarterback points. It is to be noted, however, that teams will generally attack at the point of least resistance, which so far has been the St. Louis run defense. That said, Romo owners need not be all that concerned with sitting there stud, as one can imagine TO and Witten will be involved in the game plan each week regardless of opponent. Also bear in mind that the last star receiver that St. Louis faced was Carolina’s Steve Smith, who went on to have a pretty fair game in Week 1. There's no reason to expect that to change in Week 4, so play Romo, TO and Witten as you normally would.

Running Game Thoughts: While Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville has seemingly fallen off the fantasy map, perhaps no surprise RB from 2006 has carried over his success from last season better than Barber. Despite the fact the Rams defense has yet to allow 100 yard rusher this season, they are allowing 5.2 yards per rush and have surrendered five touchdowns to the RB position in just the last two weeks, including three last week. With that as your evidence, Barber should be in line for one of his best statistical performances of the year. And who knows, maybe even Jones awakes from his long slumber to find the end zone for the first time this season.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 270 pass/2 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 110 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 25 rec
Jason Witten: 75 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 45 rush/10 rec
Marion Barber: 75 rush/2 TD/30 rec

Seahawks @ Niners
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/DJ Hackett/Marcus Pollard
Shaun Alexander (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 32.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/16.2/7.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.1

Shaun AlexanderPassing Game Thoughts: The goal in Week 3 against Cincinnati was to run the ball 40 times against the Bengals defense. Instead, Hasselbeck threw it 37 times, and Alexander had just 21 carries. Obviously, some of this had to do with the offensive nature of the game. Similarly, it's been a mixed bag for the 49ers defense, who have surrendered a pretty decent performance to an opposing running backs in two weeks and a 300-yard passer in the other. I would expect more emphasis to be placed on the running game in Week 4, meaning Hasselbeck will likely have one of his Hasselbeck-like games. What the Seahawks signal-caller has done this year, though, is spread the ball around pretty well, including Branch, Burleson and Engram. Through three games, Engram has been the most consistent receiver from a target standpoint, however, the #1 WR will continue to be Branch.

Running Game Thoughts: The Niners defense has allowed at least 96 total yards in every game to each of their opponents best running backs and Alexander has either went over 100 yards, scored a touchdown or both in each of his first three games. Alexander didn't play particularly well in either one of the two games against San Fran last season, but bear in mind, he was playing on injured foot. As reported earlier this week, his latest malady is now a cracked bone in his wrist. However, he did not appear to be in much pain against the Bengals. So, in part because I expect a heavy dose of the running game from Seattle in this contest, Alexander remains a pretty strong play this week as he will in most of the weeks to come.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 245 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 90 rec/1 TD
Nate Burleson: 60 rec
Bobby Engram: 65 rec
Marcus Pollard: 20 rec/1 TD
Shaun Alexander: 90 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Alex Smith/Darrell Jackson/Arnaz Battle
Frank Gore (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1/23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Just as TE Vernon Davis was getting more passes thrown his way than he had in the first two games combined, the speedy tight end suffers a sprained ligament in his right knee and figures to mix the next three weeks (including the bye week). While he should come back in good shape, his fantasy owners are left to find it a less desirable option on the waiver wire. And as much as the passing game was struggling, Davis's departure likely will only increase the offense's reliance on Gore. It'll be interesting to see how well Jackson performs against his former teammate CB Marcus Trufant. One San Francisco WR has went over 60 yards in each of the first three games but not one WR has eclipsed 70. Expect that trend to continue in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: In two home games, the Seahawks run defenses been pretty good, except on a handful of running plays they have allowed to Cadillac Williams and Kenny Watson. However, in their one road game against Arizona, Edgerrin James had a field day, compiling 150 total yards and a touchdown. That kind of production would be a welcome change for Gore, who has struggled along with the rest of 49er offense to adapt to the new play-calling by OC Jim Hostler. This initial struggle isn't totally unexpected, just a bit surprising considering the level of competition he faced in the Cardinals and the Rams before running into the defensive buzzsaw of the Steelers. Expect the home cooking and the fact that the Seattle defense does not seem to travel well to be a partial remedy for Gore, who I would expect San Francisco to rely on heavily in this game.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 230 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Darrell Jackson: 55 rec
Arnaz Battle: 60 rec
Frank Gore: 90 rush/1 TD/50 rec/1 TD

Bucs @ Panthers
Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Cadillac Williams (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Texans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.1/24.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.4

Joey GallowayPassing Game Thoughts: Through three weeks, the Bucs passing game has been something it wasn't all of last year -- efficient. That, however, does not fill fantasy owners' box scores. Week 4 brings Tampa Bay a road game against division rival Carolina, which has been the 11th most gracious defense in terms of allowing fantasy points to the quarterback position. Considering the Panthers are allowing less than 4 yards per carry on the ground, Garcia may be worth a spot play as he has yet to throw an interception and the Panther defense has yet to collect one. Based off first three weeks, Galloway stands to be an excellent play this Sunday as each of Carolina's first three opponents have done well getting the ball to their deep threat. As always, the rest of the Bucs passing game is a crapshoot.

Running Game Thoughts: Williams' history against the Panthers isn't all that great, and Carolina's run defenses been pretty stout to this point. Include HC Jon Gruden's wish to get Earnest Graham a few more carries each week, and it all boils down to Williams being little more than a good flex play this week.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 210 pass/2 TD/0 INT/25 rush
Joey Galloway: 115 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec
Cadillac Williams: 80 rush/10 rec

David Carr/Steve Smith/Drew Carter
DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.2/14.6/2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.5

Passing Game Thoughts: This week presents the first real test for the Panthers passing offense. St. Louis, Houston and Atlanta did not present near the challenge to Carolina and their front line as the Buccaneers do. Tampa Bay currently ranks as the fifth-toughest defense for opposing QBs to face from a fantasy perspective. It is quite surprising for Smith to be held in check like he was against the Falcons defensive backs last week, so while it has been proven that it can be done, look for OC Jeff Davidson to dial up a few more play that will head in Smith's direction. King has become a frequently targeted member of the passing game, and the very nature of a cover 2 defense suggests the tight end should be targeted on a more frequent basis, so if you’re needing some spot-start help from King, he should be able to give it to you.

Running Game Thoughts: Power rushing attacks that have stayed with the run all game have enjoyed a little bit of success against the Bucs. (A small coincidence is that each of the primary three running backs for each of the three opponents that Tampa Bay has faced to this point are all in either now injured now or out for the season, including Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister and Steven Jackson) That said, Tampa Bay is allowing right at 4 yards per carry to opposing running backs and given the success of Foster last week, he again makes for the better play over Williams.

Projections:
David Carr: 225 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
Steve Smith: 80 yds receiving/1 TD
Keary Colbert: 55 yds
Jeff King: 40 rec/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 85 yds rushing/1 TD/20 yds receiving
DeAngelo Williams: 50 yds rushing/20 yds receiving

Broncos @ Colts
Jay Cutler/Javon Walker/Rod Smith/Daniel Graham & Tony Scheffler
Travis Henry (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Texans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9/15.4/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.9

Travis HenryPassing Game Thoughts: Cutler hasn't been great, he hasn't been bad, he's been what to expect out of a second year quarterback – a little bit indecisive, and a little bit up and down. Meanwhile, the Colts defense been pretty good against opposing passers. Indianapolis surrendered their first 200-yard passing game to Houston last week. What it all means is the run game should reign supreme in Week 4. Deep threats at receiver have performed fairly well against the Colts, although only one receiver has made it into the end zone. Look for Walker to rebound from his poor statistical performance last week and rebound to be the Broncos’ leading receiver again this week. It's also pretty obvious that Marshall isn't going away anytime soon, as he has received at least seven targets in each of the first three weeks. If you have been riding him as your #3 WR, continue to do so.

Running Game Thoughts: At least once a year, HC Mike Shanahan seems to go away from the run for an inexplicable reason. Shanahan's unpredictability is pretty much the one thing that gave me pause when recommending Henry earlier in the season. With that said and with the passing game likely to be average at best this week, expect Henry to receive more than the 11 carries he received in Week 3 against the Jaguars and continue to live up to the praise I threw his way in August. The Colts have yet to allow more than 64 yards rushing to any running back through three weeks, but a lot has to do with some of the RBBC's they have faced. The Titans ran the ball 27 times against the Colts, something I expect the Broncos to repeat. Don't expect a great game from Henry, but he should definitely be in line for something close to 100 yards and a score.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 220 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Javon Walker: 90 rec/1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 75 rec
Daniel Graham & Tony Scheffler: 20 rec/20 rec
Travis Henry: 105 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.2/10/2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Peyton ManningPassing Game Thoughts: To this point the season, the Broncos have allowed 324 yards passing and two touchdowns in three games combined...in other words, one good game from Manning. A similar occurrence happened last year were the Broncos brought in one of the better pass defenses – at the time – before the met the Colts and Manning went off for 345 passing yards and three touchdowns, marking the start of demise of the Bronco defense as a whole. I don't expect a similar performance this time around, as CB Dre Bly improved what was already a pretty solid secondary. That said, I would expect another good game from Wayne even though he is likely to be covered by Bly all game. As we all know, just because CB Champ Bailey will be covering Harrison most of the game does not mean Harrison will be thrown at, it just means he won't be as productive. However, the true standout should be Clark. He should have a very good game, because unlike previous years, MLB DJ Williams will not be asked to cover him as he moved inside to fill the void left by ex-Bronco Al Wilson.

Running Game Thoughts: Given the Broncos rather unexpected struggles against the run, I would look for Addai to carry more of the load than Colts RBs have in past games against the Broncos. This will also be a good opportunity for Indianapolis to get a better yards per carry average for Addai, who is averaging just a shade under 4.2 yards per carry. Marshawn Lynch put up 99 total yards and a touchdown against this defense, while Lamont Jordan ran for 159 yards. Expect something in between for Addai.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 255 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Marvin Harrison: 60 rec
Reggie Wayne: 85 rec/1 TD
Dallas Clark: 60 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 90 rec/1 TD/35 rec

Chiefs @ Chargers
Damon Huard/Eddie Kennison/Dwayne Bowe/Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.3/28/8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.6

Tony GonzalezPassing Game Thoughts: After keeping Rex Grossman in check in Week 1, Tom Brady and Brett Favre have made the Charger defense appear very average. Look for that run to come to an end in Week 4 against Huard and a struggling Chiefs offense. To their credit, Kansas City did pass for over 200 yards in their win over Minnesota and will push that mark again against the Chargers. Bowe is the only Chiefs receiver to have any type of success through three weeks, something the San Diego defense has been all too willing to allow to #1 WRs, surrendering at least 83 yards to a receiver in every game this season. Gonzalez has been receiving regular work through three weeks, but only last week was he able to put up Gonzalez-like numbers. That's a trend that will need to continue if the Chiefs have any hope of improving on offense. Another positive note for Gonzalez owners is that San Diego's defense has allowed a touchdown to the tight end in each of the last two weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: With the Chargers pass defense being leaky the last two weeks, the need for opponents to run the ball against this defense has been minimal. In fact, Green Bay running backs ran the ball only 11 times last week and the offense still scored 31 points. That may be the best news that Johnson has heard since the season started, as he is being asked to carry a running game that he's probably not in good enough shape to do quite yet. That being said, savvy fantasy owners need to be looking into buying low on Johnson here in the next week, because the schedule becomes substantially easier versus the run after Jacksonville in Week 5. Mind you, it's not a cinch, but if you're able to land Johnson for someone like Ronnie Brown by that time, it may very well be worth your time. For the purposes of this game, Johnson figures to have his best totals of the season, at least rivaling the 87 total yards he compiled against the Texans in three weeks ago.

Projections:
Damon Huard: 210 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 65 rec
Samie Parker: 40 rec
Tony Gonzalez: 60 rec/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 65 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Buster Davis/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.7/13.1/3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like Kansas City, San Diego got it handed to them from the schedule maker. Unlike the Chiefs, though, the Chargers were supposed to have a balanced enough offense to overcome three very tough defenses to begin the season. We saw a glimpse of them starting to click a little bit more than passing game against the Packers, something that owners of players in the Chargers passing game should take as a good sign from here on out. In the Chiefs, the Chargers face a passing defense that has yet to allow any more than 225 yards in a single game. Given the overall frustrations of the offense as a whole, expect San Diego to make sure Tomlinson gets his full workload this week since KC has permitted only one WR score – with that one coming from Andre Johnson in the first week. In fact, he's the only receiver to have a notable fantasy performance against his defense, so Jackson could be in for a slow week. Gates is obviously an every-week play, but the most part last season, he was kept in check by Kansas City – at least by Gates’ standards.

Running Game Thoughts: Bear in mind that while Tomlinson isn't quite putting up the numbers fantasy owners expected from a #1 overall pick, he hasn't exactly been dead to the fantasy world either. Obviously, I realize that through three games, most of the reason why fantasy owners feel like he is struggling is because of the high standard he created for himself last season. Only last week did Tomlinson get 20-plus carries in a game, which may stem from not getting any work in the preseason among a whole host of other factors, such as not having found a “money play” with the new coaching staff yet. In terms of workload, the beginning of the season rivals that of 2005 with the main difference being that Tomlinson had already scored six touchdowns through three weeks two seasons ago, whereas this the season, he only has three. For the purposes of this game, expect the Chargers to lean on the running game heavier than they have at any point this season, as the Chiefs don't figure to score enough to make San Diego abandon the running game at any point. As a result, Tomlinson should have his best game of the season.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 220 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Vincent Jackson: 50 rec
Buster Davis: 35 rec
Antonio Gates: 80 rec/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 100 rush/2 TD/30 rec/1 TD

Steelers @ Cardinals
Ben Roethlisberger/Santonio Holmes/Cedrick Wilson/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: 49ers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1/20.6/2.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6

Willie ParkerPassing Game Thoughts: Primarily due to an easy schedule and a better-than-expected defense, the Steelers have not needed Roethlisberger to sit back in the pocket and fire 30 passes a game. Meanwhile, Cardinals opponents have yet to throw fewer than 31 passes in any game. Believe or not, the Cardinals defense appears to be the toughest of the first four opponents Pittsburgh has faced. I think this game will be closer than most think and I also think that the Steelers offense will struggle more than some people think, especially without Ward. No Pittsburgh receiver has topped 60 yards yet this season, while no #1 WR who has opposed Arizona has had less than 60 yards receiving. Another interesting trend is that a different receiver has led the Steelers in receiving yards in each of the first three weeks. At the tight end position, Arizona had allowed just 4 yards receiving to the position in the first two weeks before Todd Heap put up 60 in Week 3.

Running Game Thoughts: Arizona has yet to allow a 100 yard rusher, while Parker has yet to rush for less than 100 yards. Given HC Mike Tomlin's edict to make sure he runs Parker until "his wheels fall off", I tend to believe that Parker will continue his streak. The Cardinals defense has yet to face anybody quite as speedy as the former Tar Heel, so look for a least one big run to help him top the century mark.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 235 rush/2 TD/1 INT
Santonio Holmes: 65 rec/1 TD
Cedrick Wilson: 60 rec
Heath Miller: 40 rec/1 TD
Willie Parker: 95 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Matt Leinart/Larry Fitzgerald/Bryant Johnson
Edgerrin James (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.7/13.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 8.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Arizona's new two-headed quarterback approach will make playing either quarterback now fairly difficult for fantasy owners. Equally as difficult as that is the test the Cardinals have in front of them, possibly without Boldin. Of all people, only Taylor Jacobs has had a decent fantasy day against the Steelers defense. This obviously does not bode well for Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson. (Of course, HC Ken Whisenhunt will be returning to his old team, so bear in mind there will be few surprises either way.)

Running Game Thoughts: One home win resulted in a three-point victory, two road losses have come by a field goal. The Cardinals have James, in particular, to thank for that. However, expect the RB from "The U" to have a second consecutive difficult week on the ground, as Marshawn Lynch's 85 full yards was the highest total posted against this defense by an opposing running back. Any success that the Cardinals have on offense this week will be a result of their passing game, so while I can’t recommend benching James, he is far from a great play.

Projections:
Matt Leinart: 100 pass/1 INT
Kurt Warner: 120 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 85 rec/1 TD
Bryant Johnson: 50 rec
Edgerrin James: 60 rush/25 rec

Eagles @ Giants
Donovan McNabb/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown/Jason Avant
Brian Westbrook (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 26.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 27.1/23/14.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.8

Kevin CurtisPassing Game Thoughts: Coming off their breakout performance against the Lions, the Eagles passing game have a fairly good chance of posting somewhat similar numbers in Week 4. The Giants passing defense has allowed eight touchdowns, with their only decent performance against the pass coming in Week 3 against a run-oriented Redskins team. After Curtis's three-TD week against Detroit, one might assume he is the team's #1 WR. Let's just say I'm not convinced quite yet. Until further notice, this passing offense is a spread-it-around attack. One has to figure New York will lean their coverage toward Curtis, making Brown and Jason Avant decent #3 WR plays. With 10 total targets and 55 receiving yards to the tight end position through three games, don't expect the Eagles to take that much advantage of a Giants defense that has surrendered 170 receiving yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Westbrook has been nothing short of what his owners expected from their first-round pick, including Week 3's outburst and his weekly listing on the injury report. Every running back to face the Giants defense thus far has scored at least 15 fantasy points, even though each of those backs were part of a committee. Westbrook obviously does not have that concern. As such, if he is able to go on Sunday, expect another huge game.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 260 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Kevin Curtis: 75 rec/1 TD
Reggie Brown: 75 rec/1 TD
Jason Avant: 50 rec/1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 85 rush/1 TD/50 rec

Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Jeremy Shockey
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.6/25.2/4.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Other than last week's blowout win against the Lions in which Jon Kitna threw 46 times, the Eagles pass defense has been pretty solid from a fantasy perspective. Other than Week 1's shootout against the Cowboys, Manning has been consistent, but not spectacular. It would make sense then that Manning will have an average but not spectacular against the Eagles defense, especially considering the continuing ankle injury concerns of Burress. As such, expect Toomer to continue seeing more looks go his way to Burress is unable to separate from the defense. Shockey has been more involved in the passing game since Week 1, and only figures to get as many looks going forward if Burress' ankle does not improve.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m not going to suggest that Ward is the new Tiki Barber, but I have to admit that I'm intrigued with his long-term potential for the rest of the season. Even after Jacobs returns - remember it was his knee was injured so the questions that surfaced during a preseason about Jacobs being able to carry the load need to be addressed – he will likely return to 50-50 split at best. However, I can't help but wonder with Ward's fine all-around totals if he doesn't secure most of the work between the 20s before the end of the season. The two (Ward and Jacobs) are good friends, so team dissension at the position doesn't figure to be an issue.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 235 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Plaxico Burress: 60 rec
Amani Toomer: 65 rec/1 TD
Jeremy Shockey: 55 rec/1 TD
Brandon Jacobs/Reuben Droughns: 10 rush/1 TD
Derrick Ward: 80 rush/40 rec

Patriots @ Bengals
Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Donte Stallworth/Wes Welker/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney/Sammy Morris (vs. CIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.9/31.9/7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.2

Tom BradyPassing Game Thoughts: What an interesting dynamic it would make for if the top two passers in the league – in terms of touchdowns – both went into this game without their starting running backs? Rudi Johnson has already been ruled out and Maroney is questionable. With both RBs in the lineup, I would have expected a lower-scoring game than some people would have as both offenses may have looked to stay with the running game a bit longer to keep the other offense off the field. However, each healthy RB (Morris, Kenny Watson) is a bit more proficient catching the ball then the starter they are backing up. As such, feel free to upgrade just about any player involved in the passing game on both sides. Of course, you didn't need a recommendation for Moss or Brady, but getting it for Welker, Stallworth and Watson are all noteworthy. Until recent trends change, the only thing the Bengals secondary has going for them is that they will play at home. They have allowed four touchdowns to Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius and surrendered one touchdown apiece last week to Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram. While Ben Watson hasn't been getting for targets – he has 10 through three games – he's been making up for in the touchdown department, with a receiving score in each contest.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals run defense has played well below expectations in the season's first three weeks –a phrase that applies to the same feeling owners of Maroney are having right now. Perhaps it wasn't enough for HC Bill Belicheck to be hated by just some of the fantasy community, so he came up with the idea to sub Morris in whenever Maroney gets close to the goal line even though the ex-Badger is plenty powerful and obviously has good-enough vision. With Maroney now questionable, Morris and perhaps Heath Evans will be carrying the load for the Patriots. I don’t look for a ton of carries from the New England offense, but what ones they get should be fairly effective as the Bengals are surrendering nearly 5.7 yards per carry so far this season.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 280 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Randy Moss: 115 rec/1 TD
Donte Stallworth: 40 rec
Wes Welker: 70 rec/1 TD
Ben Watson: 20 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney/Sammy Morris: 85 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/Doug Houshmandzadeh
Kenny Watson (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs:
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7/13.4/5.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.5

Passing Game Thoughts: For all the qualms people seem to have about the Bengals defense, very few passing games seem to be clicking as well as Cincinnati's so far. Now if there is one thing New England does well, it is to take away a team's first and perhaps second options. I highly doubt the Bengals will get much going deep in this game, so I expect Houshmandzadeh to outperform Johnson from a numbers standpoint while other members of the passing game such as tight end Reggie Kelly or Daniel Coates to get their fair share of work. While the Patriots defense is very solid, I don't expect it to quiet the Bengals high-scoring attack all that much. This game will be played in the high 20s, and in order to reach that kind of number against New England, Palmer will need to be on his game.

Running Game Thoughts: It's hard to be all that optimistic about the Bengals chances of running the ball on Monday night, as only Marshawn Lynch has experienced any kind of success against the Patriots. However, Watson does strike a bit of resemblance to Lynch and he plays behind a better offensive line. If Watson is as successful as Lynch was against the Patriots, this game may have a much different outcome than what most people are expecting. That said, I don't expect the Bengals to stick with the run long enough to make Watson a one-week superstar, so only play him as a flex unless you are desperate for a # 2 running back or filling in for a bye week.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 325 pass/3 TD/2 INT
Chad Johnson: 110 rec/1 TD
Doug Houshmandzadeh: 125 rec/1 TD
Kenny Watson: 50 rush/20 rec