Week 2
9/25/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
After an underwhelming start to the season, our Experts had a second
crack at picking the starters for a fresh, new team this week. I
wish I could say they knocked it out of the park, but that wouldn’t
be even close to the truth. A couple foul balls, some ugly strike
outs, the occasional base hit, and one triple off the wall pretty
much sums up the results. We’ll get to those in a moment.
Considering how completely I tend to trash our Experts, I was
shocked to get a couple of emails from Experts who had been left
out of the competition asking to be included in next season’s
contest. I give them props for having the nuts to volunteer when
so many of our Experts are unwilling participants. It also gives
me a warm, fuzzy feeling deep in my stomach to know that someone
other than me and my Mom are reading these. And I don’t
think my Mom really reads them since she’s never once yelled
at me for swearing or talking about strippers. When the season
concludes and I’m done with our current crop of clowns,
we will clear out some of the dead weight for new blood. But I’m
getting way ahead of myself – we’re only in Week Two….
The team of the week, Kis Dis, was submitted by Karl of Berwick,
Maine. I’ve never been to Maine, nor has 99.9% of America,
so I don’t have anything disparaging to say about it. Come
to think of it, other than learning in 3rd grade that it actually
is a state and not part of Canada, I’ve never heard anything
good or bad about it. Karl and his coworkers play in a league
named Bleeding Us Dry, referencing their employer, who, for Karl’s
sake, will remain nameless. Of course, we are talking about Berwick,
Maine, population 6,353 according to Wikipedia, so your secret
is out regardless.
I picked this team on Friday, a couple of days before the games,
due to its interesting league name and solid line up.
- QB: P. Manning, Big Ben
- RB: Betts, J. Harrison, Edge, R. Rice, P. Thomas, Tomlinson
- WR: Berrian, Gage, Holmes, Housh, S. Moss (WAS)
- TE: Cooley, H. Miller, Scheffler
- K: Bironas, Tynes
- Def: Bears, Jaguars
But an interesting thing happened on the way to the game. LT
was quickly declared out for the week and Pierre Thomas was a
huge question mark for owners and Experts alike. This clearly
made the RB picks a bit more challenging, but that happens in
fantasy football. Players go down and teams need to roll with
the punches, making this situation unfortunate, but not all that
unusual. I knew our Experts were up for the challenge. They had
all heard the wake-up call from Week One and were ready to put
their Expert knowledge and experience on the line to help out
this poor team owner.
Then cruel, harsh reality set in. As I was collecting the Expert
picks on Saturday, I noticed a disturbing issue. Many of our Experts
still had Tomlinson ranked. Not everyone mind you, but a handful
hadn’t gotten around to fixing this issue in their rankings.
Really? LT was ruled out for the week Friday afternoon and you
still have him on your list halfway through Saturday? That’s
going to hurt some scores.
The second problem was the serious lack of depth in some Experts’
rankings. Why the heck would you rank only forty running backs?
Even in a standard twelve team league, 36 RBs often start, not
even considering bye weeks and injuries. Teams with weaker running
back corps might be starting guys ranked well outside that top
forty. How much help is it to real fantasy teams if you don’t
even rank half their guys? If someone didn’t rank J. Harrison,
I wasn’t offended. He’s a marginal fantasy player
at best, having some value due to the injuries around him. But
two of our experts didn’t rank any of the backs except Ray
Rice. That’s just freaking crazy and stupid. I have to give
out the award for asinine hypocrisy to The Huddle. The big enticement
for getting you to pony up hard-earned cash to subscribe to this
pay site is “one-stop-shopping for all your fantasy needs”.
And the only running back on our team they bothered to ranking
was Rice. I could have gotten more in-depth rankings at Yahoo!
or FoxSports.
So, what to do for scoring purposes? Pretty much nothing. In
order to keep this as fair and impartial as possible, I don’t
fiddle with things once the process has been set up. If they didn’t
rank a guy (NR), that player is considered the bottom pick for
that Expert. If there were multiple players not ranked for a position,
they all got the bottom ranking. This actually worked out well
for P. Thomas, who ended up with negative points and was the worst
RB pick from our line up. Full credit was given for not ranking
Tomlinson since he shouldn’t have been on anyone’s
list. However, not including a rank for backs like Betts, who
ended up being our second best start, cost teams some serious
points.
All of this works out pretty well from a couple of different
perspectives. An Expert should dispense great advice, but that
is not enough (although it would be a pleasant change). That advice
also needs to be timely (taking Tomlinson out of rankings) and
in-depth (ranking most of our RBs). Week Two highlights which
Experts are trying to achieve greatness and which ones are simply
phoning it in. One final methodology note: both FFToday and Huddle
received nine points for defensive picks since they choose not
to make them. This was the average points earned by the other
experts, rounded down.
On to the bloody mess that was our games:
| |
P.
M
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B
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J.
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E.
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R.
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P.
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T
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B
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
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B
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T
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B
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J
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| KFFL |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
NR |
NR |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
84 |
| Yahoo! |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
NR |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
80 |
|
This contest highlighted a couple of our better Experts for Week
Two. KFFL did a solid job in the running back department, but didn’t
get much else right, including a poor bet on Gage. Meanwhile, Yahoo!
ranked Tomlinson as a solid starter and ignored the rest of our
backs. If they had bothered to research more than the big names,
they could have won this.
| |
P.
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J.
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E.
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R.
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P.
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B
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
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B
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T
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B
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J
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| ESPN |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
77 |
| FB
Guys |
1 |
2 |
2 |
NR |
3 |
1 |
4 |
NR |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
86 |
|
Scores in the 70’s are disappointing and ESPN certainly achieved
bad things this week. They completely FUBARed the RB rankings while
FB Guys had another solid week. I’ll forgive anyone for not
picking Harrison as our #3 RB. That would have been a great flyer
call though.
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P.
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P.
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B
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
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B
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T
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B
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J
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Fox |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
NR |
NR |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
88 |
| FFToday |
1 |
2 |
4 |
NR |
3 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
75 |
|
For the second week in a row, FFToday went against a team having
a great week, and, since it is FoxSports, possibly their only great
week of the season. Even so, FFToday didn’t do enough to win.
Fox nailed the RB rankings, which made all the difference, while
FFToday just didn’t get much right. Going out on a limb with
Thomas, Moss, and Miller didn’t pay off this time around.
| |
P.
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P.
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
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B
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T
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B
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J
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Huddle |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
NR |
NR |
5 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
74 |
| FFToolbox |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
NR |
NR |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
94 |
|
Hallelujah! We finally have an Expert worthy of the title, at least
for a week. FFToolbox crushed the competition and would have had
an almost perfect score if not for their misplaced faith in Heath
Miller and the PIT passing game. The Huddle basically took the week
off (after taking your money), ranking only one RB. The Santana
Moss pick didn’t help either.
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P.
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B
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
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B
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T
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B
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J
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TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| Rotoworld |
1 |
2 |
2 |
NR |
4 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
84 |
| NFL |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
2 |
NR |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
81 |
|
A couple of average showings, but Rotoworld managed to pull out
a win as they struggle to defend their crown. NFL was actually solid
other than their lack of RB picks. With all the resources at their
disposal, I’d expect a little more depth. Maybe they should
take a fraction of their fantasy football advertising budget and
provide actual fantasy football information.
| |
P.
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B
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J.
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R.
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P.
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T
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B
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G
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
c
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f
f
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B
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o
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T
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s |
B
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a
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s |
J
a
g
u
a
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s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FFCafe |
1 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
| FFSharks |
2 |
1 |
4 |
NR |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
NR |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
78 |
|
Our only tie of the week (thankfully). Neither team deserved the
win anyway. All that dark orange means bad picks across the board.
Running backs continue to be the killer for most everyone and Moss
was a huge disappointment. Interestingly, FF Sharks didn’t
rank either Berrian or Scheffler.
| |
P.
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R.
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P.
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T
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B
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G
a
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H
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H
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S.
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s (WAS) |
C
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H.
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S
c
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f
f
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B
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T
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B
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s |
J
a
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s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
| AOL |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
NR |
2 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
75 |
| CBS |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
NR |
1 |
NR |
NR |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
79 |
|
And we finish up with a couple of the big corporate Experts rounding
out the bottom. CBS didn’t rank six players. AOL skipped on
four and the results prove they would have been better off ignoring
more of them. AOL ranking Tomlinson at #2 is particularly puzzling
since they do everything in a blog format. How hard would it be
to drop a few quick lines and update things?
So now we see how our Experts handle a real fantasy team with
its occasionally marginal players and injury issues. This whole
NR thing was a big surprise this week. I still don’t understand
how an Expert can rank forty backs and consider that to be complete.
Everyone knows they should start Adrian Peterson and Brandon Jacobs.
What about Ladell Betts or Edge? Decisions like these are what
determine who wins big and who hangs his head in shame when the
games are all over. If we want to know who is truly The King of
the Experts, these normal fantasy teams will go a long way towards
helping us discover who really knows their stuff and who is wasting
our time.
| ATE - Week
2 Standings |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| Fox |
1-1 |
164 |
| KFFL |
1-0-1 |
162 |
| Rotoworld |
1-1 |
160 |
| ESPN |
1-1 |
157 |
| The Huddle |
1-1 |
156 |
| FF Cafe |
0-1-1 |
156 |
| AOL |
0-1-1 |
153 |
|
|
| ATE - Week
2 Standings |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| FF Toolbox |
2-0 |
174 |
| Football Guys |
2-0 |
164 |
| FF Sharks |
1-0-1 |
160 |
| CBS |
1-0-1 |
157 |
| NFL |
0-1-1 |
159 |
| Yahoo! |
0-2 |
158 |
| FF Today |
0-2 |
153 |
|
|
A couple of weeks into this contest and the most notable thing so
far is the quick lead FFToolbox has taken. Everyone else is bunched
together within eleven points of each other, regardless of wins
and losses, while FFToolbox is ten points ahead of their closest
competitor. Football Guys is charging forward, representing all
that is good about pay fantasy sites while The Huddle wallows in
mediocrity. There are no clear trends for corporate sites versus
the small indie guys, but it is pretty interesting that only two
Experts are still undefeated so early in the process. We’ll
see if they can continue their dominance or if one of the other
Experts can rise up from the pack and challenge for the lead. We
still have eleven more weeks of regular season, so no one is out
of the hunt yet, although I expect that may change in the next couple
weeks. |
