Week 14
12/18/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
It’s becoming obvious that Christmas is rapidly approaching.
The air is getting a little chillier, even here in Central Florida.
Wal-Mart is overflowing with harassed parents scouring the aisles
for that extra-special present on their kids’ Santa List.
Yes, this is the same crappy toy that will get played with for two
hours before being unceremoniously dumped in the back of the closet
and forgotten. And, of course, the Dallas Cowboys are performing
their annual December implosion. That is probably the strongest
indication that reindeer will soon be flying through wintery winds
and the NFL regular season is about to end.
There was one very exciting development from this past weekend
of football action – JaMarcus Russell is back! I was always
hopeful, but even I was surprised at how quickly he retook the
starting position. Bruce Gradkowski’s injury was all JaMarcus
needed to get another chance to prove he’s an NFL-caliber
quarterback. And he performed well above his usual lofty standards:
10-16 for 74 yards and only one interception. It had to be better
than Raiders’ coach Tom Cable could have ever expected.
I’m going out on a limb here and guessing that Oakland’s
signing of former Bills QB J.P. Losman isn’t exactly a huge
sign of faith in Russell. Yeah, Losman, the guy Buffalo kicked
to the curb. The same Buffalo Bills that have been starting Trent
Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick this year.
Before being signed by the Raiders, Losman was playing in the
UFL. What the heck is the UFL you ask? It’s a new football
league that is positioning itself to essentially be the NFL’s
minor league. In their inaugural season, the UFL had four teams
playing an eight week schedule, including playoffs. Ironically,
the Florida Tuskers play right down the road from me in Orlando.
I never even entertained the idea of going to see a game though.
I wonder if it’s because our area is inundated by NFL excellence…Um,
nope. Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Miami, and Atlanta are my closest
options. These are definitely not the top tier of the NFL and
at least one of them is challenging Oakland for bottom of the
barrel. Maybe that’s why I haven’t been able to get
passionate about any particular NFL team. None of the ones around
me are worth watching, must less rooting for. As a backup I normally
pull for a New York team since that is where I grew up. Let’s
see…Buffalo, Giants, and Jets. Nope, still a bunch of suckiness.
I lived in Virginia for many years while in the military. In that
case I get to choose between Washington and Carolina. I’ll
pass on those two options. I spent six months residing in Connecticut
17 years ago. Does that qualify me to be a Patriots fan? That
bandwagon is awfully full and New England is a bit sketchy this
year anyway. I need a change of venue, but I’m not moving
anyplace cold, so Indy and Minnesota are out. My wife gets to
choose between New Orleans and San Diego…
Michael owns this week’s fantasy team. He’s a marketing
grad from Drexel University up in Philadelphia and an aspiring
writer as well. He did a full write-up of his players and rankings
for this week. I thought about including a lot of it, but I’m
not sharing my meager paycheck with him. But I can slide in one
of his thoughts without sending a check.
Michael: Hakeem Nicks - Young Eli and his passing
attack has all but sputtered this year with the lack of Plaxico
Burress and his gat. What started out so promising in NY this
year has quickly faded off and the Giants look desperate. I would
have a tough time starting Steve Smith and Mario Manningham this
week let alone Nicks. Did I mention the Giants were playing against
Asante Interception and the swarming Eagles D? Although one of
these receivers will benefit from an Eagles blitz gone bad, it
will only be one big play and which guy will get it? Are you willing
to put your fantasy playoffs on a 33% shot?
- QB: Favre, A. Smith, Warner
- RB: Benson, Bradshaw, S. Jackson, Mendenhall, Tomlinson
- WR: Collie, Floyd, C. Johnson, Nicks, R. White
- TE: Celek, Finley, Gates
- K: Hartley, Scobee
- Def: Jets, Packers
This is another solid and realistic line up. Michael has some
great strength at tight end (which I would have traded away) and
lots of options across the board. He submitted his rankings before
the Thursday game and managed a score of 70. Not exactly awe-inspiring,
but sadly competitive with the Experts, as we’ll see below.
Wildcard Weekend Games
| Pick Color Codes |
|
| Correct |
|
| Missed by: 1 |
|
| Missed by: 2 |
|
| Missed by: 3 |
|
|
| |
F
a
v
r
e |
A.
S
m
i
t
h |
W
a
r
n
e
r |
B
e
n
s
o
n |
B
r
a
d
s
h
a
w |
S.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
M
e
n
d
e
n
h
a
l
l |
T
o
m
l
i
n
s
o
n |
C
o
l
l
i
e |
F
l
o
y
d |
C.
J
o
h
n
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
R.
W
h
i
t
e |
C
e
l
e
k |
F
i
n
l
e
y |
G
a
t
e
s |
H
a
r
t
l
e
y |
S
c
o
b
e
e |
J
e
t
s |
P
a
c
k
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FF
Sharks |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
72 |
| FB
Guys |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
70 |
|
The first of our playoff games featured one of our remaining indie
sites versus our sole surviving pay contestant. It was fairly close,
but Football Guys struggled across the board. Their pick of Warner
over Favre really did them in. Sharks was the only Expert who nailed
the quarterback position. Everyone got the defense wrong and kicker
right, while receiver and running back were each a complete train
wreck. I’ve been saying that a lot this season…Steven
Jackson was a bust, for both this game and the season as a whole.
Mendenhall screwed his owners and our Experts as well. Ahmad Bradshaw,
ranked dead last by everyone, tore it up.
| |
F
a
v
r
e |
A.
S
m
i
t
h |
W
a
r
n
e
r |
B
e
n
s
o
n |
B
r
a
d
s
h
a
w |
S.
J
a
c
k
s
o
n |
M
e
n
d
e
n
h
a
l
l |
T
o
m
l
i
n
s
o
n |
C
o
l
l
i
e |
F
l
o
y
d |
C.
J
o
h
n
s
o
n |
N
i
c
k
s |
R.
W
h
i
t
e |
C
e
l
e
k |
F
i
n
l
e
y |
G
a
t
e
s |
H
a
r
t
l
e
y |
S
c
o
b
e
e |
J
e
t
s |
P
a
c
k
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
| FF
Toolbox |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
68 |
| Fox |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
72 |
|
Our second match up was indie versus corporate and the big money
won this time and rather easily. FF Toolbox got only the kicker
position right and that was a slam dunk. Garrett Hartley was the
top ranked kicker by many of our Experts while Scobee has been unexciting
this entire year. Calvin Johnson was a huge disappointment to everyone
and Roddy White wasn’t much better. Meanwhile, Nicks and Collie
ended up at number one and two. Not pretty.
If Michael listened to our Experts, he would have started Warner,
Jackson, Mendenhall, Johnson, White, Nicks, Gates, Hartley, and
the Packers defense. Across the board, this was close to the worst
possible starting lineup that could have been created from the
roster we had to work with. Ouch. Weeks like this seriously call
into question whether Experts are helpful at all.
Playoff Standings
Let us say goodbye to Football Guys and FF Toolbox. It was a
good run, but clean out your lockers and hit the road. I’m
not sad to see FB Guys go as it simply reinforces the futility
and silliness of pay fantasy sites. I was hoping to see Toolbox
stick around though as they put together a solid season. Interestingly,
the wins this week both went to the underdog as FB Guys had previously
earned the third seed and FF Toolbox was the fourth.
That leaves us with the following Experts in our Championship
Round:
- CBS (1st seed) vs. FF Sharks (6th seed)
- Rotoworld (2nd seed) vs. Fox (5th seed)
All the pay sites have been dismissed and only one indie site
remains. The evil corporate Experts have ended up dominating the
postseason, which is a bit surprising. Maybe there is some benefit
to having washed up NFL players available as commentators and
analysts?
Statistical Stuff
As promised, I spent a number of hours this week amassing and
reviewing the data from the regular season. The following tables
list each Expert and where their rankings put them each week in
the pecking order of all the contestants. For example, in Week
Five Rotoworld had the best rankings, FF Cafe had the second most
optimal, and FF Toolbox and AOL had identical scores in third
place. The color coding is just there to make the relationships
more obvious. White is the top third each week, yellow the middle,
and orange the bottom third. The Experts were also broken into
three groups: playoff contenders, the middle of the pack, and
future fast food employees.
| Playoff Contenders |
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
| CBS |
5 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
| Rotoworld |
13 |
4 |
12 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
13 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
| FB Guys |
5 |
3 |
9 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
8 |
3 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
14 |
| FF Toolbox |
3 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
12 |
1 |
| Fox |
13 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
| FF Sharks |
1 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
12 |
1 |
13 |
13 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
|
Since these guys all made the playoffs, it isn’t any surprise
that they scored in the top third pretty regularly. Anyone looking
for consistency should consider the track record of CBS Sports.
They spent only a single week in the bottom group. Boom or bust
owners would do well to examine FF Toolbox. They spent some time
scraping the bottom but also amassed three first place finishes
and eight in the top third. Being near the top in eight of thirteen
contests is pretty solid. I’m not sure how important the
average number is, but Excel calculated it for me so I thought
I’d toss it in for readers intrigued by that sort of thing.
| Middle of the Pack |
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
| FF
Today |
5 |
12 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
9 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
13 |
| FF
Cafe |
5 |
9 |
6 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
1 |
7 |
13 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
| ESPN |
3 |
11 |
3 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
| Yahoo! |
5 |
7 |
1 |
10 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
| NFL |
5 |
6 |
11 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
11 |
7 |
13 |
5 |
1 |
| AOL |
5 |
12 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
11 |
3 |
4 |
14 |
6 |
|
Any of these guys could have made the playoffs with a little bit
of luck. There isn’t quite as many top third finishes in this
group and more orange is starting to show up, but the average has
only crept up slightly. Note that our bottom three – Yahoo!,
NFL, and AOL – are the first with only three top third rankings.
| Future Fast Food
Employees |
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
| KFFL |
5 |
4 |
13 |
14 |
11 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
| ***
****** |
1 |
14 |
14 |
1 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
9 |
3 |
14 |
11 |
5 |
|
The numbers posted by our future fast food employees tell a very
different and disturbing tale. The average weekly finish number
has skyrocketed and orange is threatening to overwhelm the few holdout
yellow and white blocks. KFFL struggled mightily, finishing in the
bottom third more than half of the time. Our bottom team, whose
name I cannot mention, fared even worse. Its money wasted for me,
except that it protects readers from making this horrible mistake
themselves. Luckily I didn’t use the Expert’s advice
to set my fantasy line up.
| Joe Schmo |
| |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
| Owner |
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
10 |
|
4 |
|
I hadn’t originally planned on having the team owners rank
their own teams, but some of them were gracious enough to do so
anyway. However, looking forward to next season, it will definitely
become part of the process. The data is incomplete and I don’t
want to draw any hasty inferences, but there certainly seems to
be a trend when compared to the Experts...
And that reminds me of a couple final housekeeping items. Please
send in any suggestions you have for next season. This includes
potential improvements to the structure and methodology as well
as new contestants. Every idea will be read, but I can’t
promise to implement them all. Also, if you are proud of your
fantasy team, send it
in as I’d like to use a 100% up-to-date roster for our
King of the Experts Bowl.
|
