Target: The Staff at Fanball.com
Article: Sound Off (July 8, 2006)

I need to admit right from the start that one of the leagues I play in has used the Fanball League Manager for the last three years. I have been extremely under-whelmed, infuriated, and befuddled by constant crashes, slow loads, and horrible customer support for my league. Not to say it will happen to you, but I’m sure if they see this column, my league will either run perfectly or we’ll suffer a permanent crash. But I digress….

How about their “experts”? In July of last year the Fanball staff each picked their top sleeper for the upcoming season. Since each of these represents an expert’s best pick, I was expecting miraculous things. But did they deliver?

Pick #1: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh

Avg. Draft Position: 20th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 1494 — Rushing Yards Rank: 6
Rushing TDs: 13 — Rushing TDs Rank: 4
Receiving Yards: 222 — Receiving Yards Rank: 22
Receiving TDs: 3 — Receiving TDs Rank: 2

I’m not sure if it makes up for their league commissioner crashing in the second round of our draft, but this was a great sleeper pick. Fast Willie shocked and amazed by piling up 16 combined touchdowns. And this from a guy many thought was too small to be a feature back in the NFL. Rather than succumb to a TD vulture like Najeh Davenport, Willie carried the rock across the stripe enough to finish as a top five back in rushing TDs.

To get FWP, owners had to pass on the likes of Kevin Jones, Reuben Droughns, and Deuce McAllister. Most owners easily lived with that, especially if they didn’t like losing. Getting Parker was worthwhile, even if the only positive to come out of it was avoiding the worthless KJ and Droughns.

Lesson One: On a run-first team, someone has to carry the ball.

Pick #2: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit

Avg. Draft Position: 19th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 689 — Rushing Yards Rank: 31
Rushing TDs: 6 — Rushing TDs Rank: 19
Receiving Yards: 520 — Receiving Yards Rank: 4
Rushing TDs: 2 — Rushing TDs Rank: 6

Owners looking for a young, injury-prone RB who always teases with his talent but leaves you hanging at crunch time have found their man. If you are the type of guy who likes to buy drinks for a hot girl all night and then go home alone, KJ should be available for you. For two consecutive years now, Jones has taken weeks 15 and 16 off. He has certainly missed others, having never played in all 16 games of any season. But missing out on the fantasy football playoffs is inexcusable. Sometimes a player just has to suck it up and play; owners are counting on him.

At best, KJ lived up to typical expectations. If you play in a PPR league, his 61 receptions helped vindicate your selection. But you could have had Chester Taylor or Willie Parker with that pick. With Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett in the Detroit backfield now, Jones, even if healthy, may not be the clear-cut starter.

Lesson Two: Don’t buy drinks for the hot girl at the bar unless you really have a chance.

Pick #3: Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville

Avg. Draft Position: 35th WR taken
Receiving Yards: 643 — Receiving Yards Rank: 50
Rushing TDs: 4 — Rushing TDs Rank: 36

Matt Jones was a hot commodity last off-season. The previous year, he had displayed some chemistry with Byron Leftwich for the few games the QB wasn’t in street clothes. The venerable Jimmy Smith had finally accepted his membership to AARP and was enjoying retirement in sunny Florida—along with all the other old geezers who drive ten miles under the speed limit in the left lane with their blinker on. The table was set for a breakout performance and everyone knew it.

But Jones quickly took a page out of teammate Fred Taylor’s playbook, and couldn’t find his way out of the trainer’s office. Although he missed only two games, he racked up more yards on the stationary bike than the playing field in most other games. Add in the standard Leftwich injuries and you have the best receiver in Jacksonville nicked up and catching passes from future Hall-of-Famer, David Garrard—your guess at which Hall of Fame that will be is as good as mine. Jones wasn’t able to haul in a touchdown catch until week 12, making this sleeper pick officially junk. Other receivers that could have been taken: Deion Branch, Joe Jurevicius, and Braylon Edwards.

Lesson Three: Jimmy Smith never got enough credit for making his quarterbacks look a lot better than they were.

Pick #4: Reggie Brown WR, Philadelphia

Avg. Draft Position: 32nd WR taken
Receiving Yards: 836 — Receiving Yards Rank: 29
Rushing TDs: 8 — Rushing TDs Rank: 9

Did I mention that when our Fanball draft died, it did not rise up out of the ashes like a phoenix and return to life? Instead, it lay there rotting, festering, and stinking for days… However, this sleeper pick rocked. Catching passes from Donovan McNabb is not a bad thing. Surprisingly, catching those same passes from Jeff Garcia isn’t all that bad, either. Brown was also unquestionably the man in the red zone. And he even ran one in just to help out his owner’s cause.

Brown was normally taken just a touch before Matt Jones above. So, your choices were similarly unimpressive with players like Joey Porter, Keenan McCardell, and Troy Williams being other options. If you grabbed Brown here, good choice.

Lesson Four: Pittsburgh is good for RBs and Philadelphia is good for WRs. Interesting….

Pick #5: Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland

Avg. Draft Position: 11th TE taken
Receiving Yards: 875 — Receiving Yards Rank: 3
Rushing TDs: 3 — Rushing TDs Rank: 16

Winslow was a good pick in PPR leagues and certainly not horrible in yardage ones either. But, most people play in leagues that count TDs. When you think touchdowns you think Cleveland Browns right? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Even though he totaled the most catches of any TE in 2006, he could only get into the end zone three times.

He limped through the entire season on a bad wheel and went through his third major knee surgery in two years this off-season. What is it with NFL players and motorcycles? Winslow has the talent to be an elite TE. Whether his body will survive long enough or his supporting cast will carry their weight remains to be seen. For Winslow, you gave up guys like Ben Watson, Vernon Davis, and Ben Troupe. How you feel about that likely depends on your scoring system.

Lesson Five: Cleveland is a fantasy wasteland.

Pick #6: Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago

Avg. Draft Position: 36th RB taken
Rushing Yards: 647 — Rushing Yards Rank: 36
Rushing TDs: 6 — Rushing TDs Rank: 19
Receiving Yards: 54 — Receiving Yards Rank: 90
Rushing TDs: 0 — Rushing TDs Rank: 37

Did I mention that the Fanball live scoring in my league had exactly a 0% chance of being correct at any given moment? Kind of like Cedric Benson having a chance to start with Thomas Jones still in the picture. Was he a sleeper in 2006? If you stretch the definition a bit, he might slide in there. Coming in after Thomas Jones had done all the heavy lifting, Benson was able to stick in a half dozen TDs during garbage time. But it’s kind of hard to count on that week in and week out.

Jones is gone and the load on first and second downs will fall on Benson’s shoulders. Don’t expect to see him around on third down though; he catches like a Minnesota WR—yeah, that bad. Taking Benson cost you a chance to pick Chris Brown, Wali Lundy, Laurence Maroney, and Kevin Barlow. So, it worked out all right.

Lesson Six: Being a top NFL draft pick doesn’t mean instant success.

Pick #7: Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay

Avg. Draft Position: 15th QB taken
Passing Yards: 3885 — Passing Yards Rank: 6
Passing TDs: 18 — Passing TDs Rank: 13
Rushing Yards: 28 — Rushing Yards Rank: 37
Rushing TDs: 1 — Rushing TDs Rank: 15

I love Brett Favre. I mean – huge man crush. If I were another six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier, I would hope to play like he does, with grit and determination while still being a great guy. Unfortunately for him, he is the only thing that doesn’t suck in Green Bay right now. Unfortunately for me, I have absolutely zero football skills and the only part of me growing is the beer storage tank housed at my waistline. With no running game, a weak set of receivers, and a complete black hole at tight end, Favre once again had to put the state of Wisconsin on his shoulders for a season. On the bright side, he did attempt a career high 613 passes. On the darker side, he only threw for 18 TDs.

Favre was in a tier of QBs including Michael Vick, Jake Plummer, and Drew Brees. He probably wouldn’t be anyone’s first choice in retrospect.

Lesson Seven A: A team with no running backs must throw a lot.

Lesson Seven B: A team with no receivers won’t catch a lot.

Those were the seven picks from the Fanball experts. To summarize:

Willie Parker – Yes
Kevin Jones - No
Matt Jones - No
Reggie Brown - Yes
Kellen Winslow - No
Cedric Benson - No
Brett Favre - No

I couldn’t give them Benson and Favre as sleepers. Each performed about where they should have according to their average draft position. KJ, Jones, and Winslow hurt. But in all honesty, none of them really destroyed a team. While they had disappointing fantasy seasons, no one was bad enough to warrant hate mail. So, ignoring the quality of their league manager (which I guess we should do), their picks weren’t half bad.

So what about here at FFToday? Do we have an expert of the same caliber? I call upon:

Target: Matt Waldman
Article: The Weekly Gut Check – Vol. 72

Best Sleeper Prediction: Marion Barber III, RB, Dallas

Avg. Draft Position: 41st RB taken
Rushing Yards: 654 — Rushing Yards Rank: 34
Rushing TDs: 14 — Rushing TDs Rank: 3
Receiving Yards: 196 — Receiving Yards Rank: 29
Rushing TDs: 2 — Rushing TDs Rank: 6

I don’t think it is possible to have a better sleeper pick than this. Taken as a bench player and cheap Julius Jones injury insurance, Barber ended the season with 16 combined touchdowns. He didn’t do anything special with yardage and, because of his boom or bust scoring, he was a tough guy to count on. But who cares? What do you want out of your 4th RB? Sixteen TDs just aren’t enough for you?

In snagging Barber, owners could have taken Jerious Norwood, Mike Anderson, or DeAngelo Williams. Good call. With a new coaching staff in Big D, Barber could be in the starting lineup or caddying for Jones again this September. And before you say, “at least he’ll get those goal line carries”, let me throw a sharp and pointy factoid at you. Barber had the lowest conversion rate in the NFL in short yardage situations last year.

Lesson 8: Bill Parcells loves to run the ball. That doesn’t help much since he’s retired. But I think it’s an important lesson.

Worst Sleeper Prediction: Steve McNair, QB, Baltimore

Avg. Draft Position: 22nd QB taken
Passing Yards: 3050 — Passing Yards Rank: 14
Passing TDs: 16 — Passing TDs Rank: 19
Rushing Yards: 119 — Rushing Yards Rank: 12
Rushing TDs: 1 — Rushing TDs Rank: 14

It has been a while since McNair was relevant to the fantasy football world. That didn’t change in 2006 as he carried on the fine tradition of elite Baltimore quarterbacks. His numbers, taken across the entire season, were not horrible for a guy taken as a late 2nd QB or bench warmer. However, other than Alex Smith, McNair scored the least fantasy points of any quarterback that started all 16 games. So, his poor to middle of the road numbers were simply a product of playing time.

Considering where he was taken, the other pickings have to be slim. How about Chris Sims, Byron Leftwich, and Matt Leinart? Sure, Leinart would have been fine but who knew? Certainly not this FFToday expert who liked Kurt Warner as a starter last year, and has made no bones about being a president of the Steve McNair fan club. You have to wonder if Waldman tried to contribute to McNair’s defense fund in the DUI case that was thrown out of court this week. McNair’s prospects to Waldman are like Shaq at the foul line, the rest of his game may be great, but put McNair in the picture and he’s clanking them off the rim. Devard Darling? You can probably even trace that one back to McNair…

Other picks by Mr. Waldman included Bruce Gradkowski, Devard Darling, and Sam Hurd. I couldn’t really slam any of them because, even after their “break out season”, no one has heard of them. To be fair, Gradkowski did throw nine TDs, Hurd had a total of 75 receiving yards on the year, and Darling did a fine job holding the real receivers’ jocks on the sidelines.

However, all those guys could be had in the last round of any sane draft and would thus be better classified as either long shots or wasted picks, depending on how much you wish to crush the delicate psyche of this expert, (Editor’s Note: My delicate psyche wasn’t surprised he tried to spare me—brown noser…And yes, my weak spot is McNair—don’t ever listen to me when I start talking about McNair, he’s my blind spot). I won’t spend any more time critiquing Waldman’s selections because, ignoring the shot in the dark ideas, Barber was huge and McNair wasn’t a complete bust. Again, the expert did a fairly decent job.

Maybe these experts do know something occasionally. If you listened to either the Fanball staff or Matt Waldman you likely did pretty well in discovering a sleeper or two and they didn’t complete screw you over with their misses. No one ever gets them all right in such a low percentage game, especially when swinging for the fences. It’s a Reggie Jackson thing. Fans either loved him for knocking all those pitches out of the park or hated him for all the clutch strikeouts. Regardless of which side they were on, everyone had to admire his courage. Similarly, it takes something special to project Devard Darling as a soon to be household name. What that is, I will leave to the reader to name…. (Hint: “10 Minutes to Wapner!”)

In our next and final article on sleepers for this off-season, I will look back upon the picks I made a year ago and subject them to the same treatment I have given the experts who, however unwillingly, have been the subject of my ongoing ridicule. And I will also give you some 100% guaranteed sleeper picks for the upcoming season. Come on, you can trust me. After all, I am an expert at this!