So many different things will go into the eventual success or failure
of a signal-caller, making Quarterbacks one of the most difficult
positions to evaluate when it comes to free agency movement. Over
the past couple of years, few discernible statistics have surfaced
to distinguish the telltale signs of a promising free agency acquisition
at Quarterback.
In 1997 Jeff George was seemingly on his last leg when the Oakland
Raiders handed him the reigns to their offense. Just a few months
later, those who took a fly on the Atlanta Falcons castoff in their
fantasy draft were rewarded with a 4,000 yard 30 touchdown season.
One year later in 1998, fantasy football was shocked by the production
of veteran Randall Cunningham and the Minnesota Vikings. In 2002
the Buffalo Bills were more than happy to provide veteran Drew Bledsoe
with a new home, and fantasy owners who drafted him were rewarded
with what would be a 26 touchdown, pro-bowl season.
I believe that each of these free agency success stories all share
the same common denominator that is not necessarily related to their
own personal athletic prowess. It is a talented supporting cast
which makes the transition to a new ball club and offensive play
calling system that much easier.
Jeff George benefited from a 1,300 yd rusher in Napoleon Kaufman,
as well as Tim Brown, Rickey Dudley and 12 touchdown receptions
from James Jett (surprising but true). Cunningham benefited from
Cris Carter and rookie Randy Moss at wideout, both of whom seemed
to eat touchdowns for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Bledsoe's transition
in Buffalo was aided by a dominant force at receiver in Eric Moulds,
as well as two emerging talents in Peerless Price and Travis Henry.
Let's use the history of success with a supporting cast in an attempt
to gauge the production levels of some of this year's free agent
acquisitions at Quarterback:
A.J. Feeley From PHI to MIA
The potential for Feeley to develop into a reliable fantasy quarterback
may reside in this season with the Miami Dolphins, who acquired
him from the Philadelphia Eagles for a second round draft pick.
While he did not see any action last season, as a rookie in 2002
Feeley was thrown into the mix when both Donovan McNabb and Koy
Detmer went down in Philly. The rookie from Oregon responded with
a 60% completion rate and a 4-1 record.
Now with Miami, the starting quarterback job will not necessarily
be handed over. Feeley will have to compete in training camp with
incumbent Jay Fiedler, who had hip surgery in the summer of 2002
and only played in 12 games last season. Surrounded by a very talented
Dolphin supporting cast (including new WR David Boston), the only
roadblock to success is a patchwork offensive line that may have
four new starters come September.
Coach Dave Wannstedt and General Manager Rick Spielman have had
nothing but good things to say about Feeley throughout May minicamps,
and with that being said as long as Feeley performs well in August
he has a good shot of securing the starting position. If the new
members of the offensive line gel, the talented Dolphin offense
may surprise a lot of people this season. Keep an eye on the quarterback
competition in July and August, and consider drafting A.J. Feeley
as a second quarterback late in the draft, as long as you are confident
with your starter. You may be rewarded midway through the season
with a very reliable backup who can be plugged into your lineup,
or used as trade bait.
Jeff Garcia From SF to CLE
A fairly durable scrambler who has demonstrated toughness throughout
his career, Garcia scored 13 touchdowns over the final four games
of last season. Lee Suggs and William Green each hold a lot of potential
at the running back position, and the acquisition of Kellen Winslow
Jr. will provide Garcia with a midfield target on many a broken
play. New offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie has said he will
incorporate more balance between the running and the passing game,
and there are quite a few playmakers surrounding Garcia who could
possibly make him a very attractive pick to the untrained fantasy
eye.
However, playing behind what many believe to be one of the least
reliable offensive lines in the entire league will result in the
same steady diet of dirt and grass that both Tim Couch and Kelly
Holcomb feasted on last season. While his leadership and ability
to create something out of nothing is enticing, there are better
options than Garcia when looking for a backup quarterback on draft
day. Until you receive some type of reassurance from training camp
reports that the Browns O-line has solidified consider other passers
for the backup position on your fantasy team, although as the 15th
quarterback or beyond he does make for a good value.
Mark Brunell From JAX to WAS
While he has never thrown for more than 20 touchdowns in a season,
Mark Brunell has proven to be a reliable passer in the NFL. That
is why head coach Joe Gibbs paid over $40 million dollars to secure
the services of this veteran. Unfortunately fantasy leagues rarely
award points for rah-rah speeches and savvy leadership. Clearly
not the same as he once was due to various injuries that have hindered
his mobility, Brunell is almost a sure thing to start the season
as the Redskins #1 QB over Patrick Ramsey, barring any unforeseen
circumstance.
Last year with the Jaguars, Brunell played in just three games before
succumbing to both injury and the calls for rookie Byron Leftwich.
It should also be noted that last year with the Redskins, starter
Patrick Ramsey took quite a beating as well, being sacked 30 times
in just 11 games. With that being said, it is the belief of this
fantasy forecaster that Ramsey will supplant Brunell as the starter
by at least week eight of the regular season due to inevitable injury.
While the Redskin offense is rich with talent at both running back
and wide receiver, that may not be enough to protect the 33 year-old
Brunell from opposing defenses. Expect the quarterback position
in Washington to be very difficult to gauge, and I advise that you
look elsewhere for both a starter and backup quarterback on draft
day.
Kurt Warner From STL to NYG
Brought into the Big Apple with the direct understanding that he
would act as a tutor for rookie Eli Manning, the former Super Bowl
MVP will most likely open the regular season as the team's starting
quarterback. That being said, Warner has a talented supporting cast
around him that may keep Manning on the sidelines for longer than
expected. Question marks that do arise include the dismal play by
the Giants front line last season, along with Warner's repeated
thumb injuries over the past two years. Kurt contends that his hand
is completely healed, and a football team led by disciplinarian
Tom Coughlin will have perfection demanded of them, especially in
the trenches. Keep your eye on reports out of training camp to make
sure that Warner's thumb continues to hold up. If it does, owners
in deeper leagues may be rewarded by taking #13 as a third quarterback
late in the draft.
Vinny Testaverde From NYJ to DAL
I can't imagine that Bill Parcells has the time, patience or kindness
to offer a roster spot to an aging quarterback simply as a charity
case. The Big Tuna genuinely believes that Vinny Testaverde can
still lead an NFL team, and he advised Jerry Jones to sign him this
offseason to act as both a mentor and threat to young guns Quincy
Carter and Drew Henson.
In just seven starts last season, Testaverde threw seven touchdowns,
two interceptions, and managed the Jet offense with a surprisingly
good passer rating of 90.6%. While Parcells supported his starter
last season, Carter did finish the year with just 17 touchdowns
and 21 interceptions. As minicamps come to an end and training camp
gears up, there is a possibility that Testaverde could supplant
Carter as the first team quarterback if his accuracy and decision
making have not shown significant improvement.
Whoever is handed the reigns to this offense will have a lot of
weapons to work with, and are worthy of a place on your fantasy
roster as a backup quarterback. Remain hesitant on pulling the trigger
on either Carter or Testaverde until you've reviewed August training
camp reports and are confident that Parcells is leaning in a specific
direction.
Kerry Collins From NYG to OAK
Through the first nine weeks of last season with the New York Giants
Kerry Collins was leading the NFL in passing yards. High yardage
totals have been a staple of the Penn State product while playing
with the Giants, over the past three years Collins has averaged
3,650 yards passing per season. While his touchdown totals have
hovered around the 16-19 mark, Collins has served many a fantasy
team as a reliable backup quarterback. After suffering through a
4-12 campaign marred by injuries across the board, the front office
felt that a fresh start was needed at quarterback with rookie Eli
Manning. By showing no interest in the role of mentor, Kerry Collins
was released by the Giants and has found a new home with the equally
talented but troubled Oakland Raiders. Considered a better fit for
coach Norv Turner's West Coast Offense than Rich Gannon due to Collins
superior deep ball, Kerry should be considered on draft day as a
late backup quarterback selection, if he should win the starting
position.
The following are a few more notable free agent acquisitions at
quarterback this offseason. However, each was brought on to their
respective ballclubs strictly as a reserve, and you should not consider
selecting any of them on draft day unless the #1 passer on the team
falls to serious injury at some point in training camp…
Chris Chandler (From CHI to STL)
Tim Couch (From CLE to GB)
Brian Griese (From MIA to TB)
Drew Henson (From HOU to DAL)
Shaun King (From TB to AZ)
Kordell Stewart (From CHI to BAL)
