Torrey Smith will help the 49ers but won't
get the volume necessary to make him a fantasy WR1.
In an effort to make a splash in free agency after losing key players
Mike Iupati and Frank
Gore, the 49ers signed former Ravens wide receiver Torrey
Smith. His five-year $40 million contract includes $22 million
guaranteed and certainly makes him a starter, if not the No.1 wideout
in San Francisco going into the 2015 season. Michael
Crabtree is not expected to be re-signed leaving Smith and Anquan
Boldin as the teams’ top wide receivers.
When it comes to his playing style, Smith is a home-run threat.
He’s a fast straight-line runner with average route running
ability. While he never posted No.1 wideout numbers in Baltimore,
he will be counted on to do so for the 49ers. Smith should provide
some consistency and help quarterback Colin Kaepernick get back
on track after a disappointing 2014 season.
Smith has never been known to be a high-volume receiver and that
theory held true last season as he finished with 49 receptions and
767 yards receiving but did score 11 touchdowns, the highest total
of his four-year career. Boldin isn’t getting any younger (34),
neither is Vernon
Davis (31) for that matter, so Smith’s explosiveness will be
a welcome addition. This might be a pricy gamble for the 49ers,
but it’s certainly a position of need.
Fantasy Impact
Smith is going to be utilized as much as possible given his contract
and considering the lack of depth the 49ers possess at the wide
receiver position, but he won’t be an 80-reception per season player.
He finished 19th in standard scoring leagues among wide receivers
last season, which is good enough for a low-end WR2 finish (in a
12-team league). He also finished with the lowest amount of targets
(92) among the top-20 scoring wide receivers. In PPR leagues, Smith
finished 28th with an average of 12 FPts per game, which puts as
a high-end WR3 (in a 12 team league).
Smith is a more valuable asset in standard scoring leagues as opposed
to PPR and that trend should remain the same assuming he plays a
similar deep threat role in San Francisco. He will have the upside
to score eight-plus touchdowns, but most likely won’t exceed
his career-high total of 65 receptions (2013). His 2013 season (137
targets, 65 receptions, 1,128 yards, 4 TDs) is likely the ceiling
in terms of targets, receptions, and yards.
Keep in mind that Anquan Boldin turned in a very solid 2014 season
as the de facto No.1 wide receiver (131 targets, 83 receptions,
1,062 yards, 5 TDs). He will not magically disappear because of
Smith’s arrival and will consume precious targets in the 49ers
run-first offense. However, having Boldin on the field will take
some coverage pressure off Smith, allowing for more potential one-on-one
matchups.
On the quarterback front, Kaepernick’s 2014 season was somewhat
disappointing (3,369 passing yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs) and there is
bounce-back appeal given Smith’s signing and a new coaching regime,
but he will never be a 40-TD quarterback, or perhaps 30 so Smith’s
2015 expectations have to be tapered. Sixty receptions, 1,000 yards,
and eight TDs would be pushing Smith’s ceiling, good enough for
148 points in standard scoring leagues, which would rank 18th among
wide receivers last season (24th in PPR leagues). That projected
stat line would put him as a mid-tier WR2 in standard formats and
a low-tier WR2/high-end WR3 in PPR leagues. Keep in mind this is
a projection and also using 2014 stats, which could end up being
completely different for wide receivers in 2015 but without a volume
increase, it's difficult to see Smith's fantasy value taking a leap.
For the Ravens, Smith’s production and ability will be missed as
currently Steve
Smith is the shoe-in No.1 wide receiver for Joe Flacco with
Marlon
Brown, Michael Campanero, Kamar
Aiken, Jeremy Butler, and Aldrick
Robinson filling out the wide receiver depth in Baltimore. This
obvious hole needs to be upgraded whether it’s through free agency
or the upcoming NFL Draft. Smith Sr. will be 36 years old in 2015
and can’t handle a full workload as the No.1 wide receiver. He regressed
as the season progressed in 2014 after a torrid start. Baltimore
is in desperate need of play-makers after losing Torrey Smith, tight
end Owen
Daniels (DEN) and potentially running back Justin
Forsett.
