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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers and Fallers: Week 3
Fantasy Football Stock Watch
9/30/15

Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton's hot start (868-8-1) has made him a top five fantasy quarterback after three weeks.


Quarterback

Rising

Andy Dalton, CIN

The oft ignored in fantasy circles Andy Dalton is making a push to be considered a weekly starter as October kicks off. In three games, Dalton has thrown eight touchdowns to only one interception, with multiple scores in every game. He will of course continue to benefit from the presence of A.J. Green, one of the best receivers in the game. Giovani Bernard out of the backfield, Tyler Eifert’s emergence, and Marvin Jones finally returning to health will all support Dalton’s cause as well. If you are struggling at quarterback due to injury or a disappointing start, Dalton might be the guy you’re looking for to right the ship.

Derek Carr, OAK

After a disastrous Week 1, Derek Carr has turned things around dramatically in his last two games. Over Weeks 2 and 3, Carr has thrown for 665 yards, five touchdowns, and only one interception. Amari Cooper looks like a star in the making and Michael Crabtree brings a veteran presence to the receiving corps. Latavius Murray’s breakout on the ground will keep defenses honest, allowing Carr to work without excessive pressure. I’m not ready to declare Carr more than a matchup play yet, but when the matchup is right, we should see more games like the last two.

Falling

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN

One of the more popular late-round quarterback picks of 2015 is starting to play his way out of fantasy lineups entirely. It isn’t all his fault, he just happens to be on a team whose winning strategy is via running and defense. In his last two games, he has thrown for 153 and 121 yards. On the season, he only has two interceptions (which is nice), but only one touchdown pass. Bridgewater is a good quarterback for his real life team, but currently not a very good one for your fantasy team. He’s can be dropped in any league that only requires starting one quarterback.

Andrew Luck, IND

I was fine with giving Andrew Luck a pass after games against the Bills and Jets, two of the better defenses in the NFL. After a matchup with the Titans that saw him finish outside the Top 12 at quarterback for the third week in a row, it’s time to finally welcome him to the status of “falling.” He has thrown five touchdowns on the year, but also has EIGHT interceptions. Luck hasn’t thrown for more than 260 yards in a single game and he’s completing less than 60 percent of his passes. Based on where you drafted him, you probably have to ride it out with him in your starting lineup and hope the Colts offense fixes its problems sooner rather than later.

Running Back

Rising

Latavius Murray, OAK

Latavius Murray is doing exactly what anyone who took him in the 4th or 5th round was hoping for: developing into the featured back for the Oakland Raiders. Preseason concerns about Roy Helu stealing his thunder appear unfounded. Through three games, Murray has 52 carries and 11 receptions, keeping owners in standard and PPR leagues all plenty happy. The biggest concern entering the season was regarding what would happen if the Raiders fell behind early in games, but with his early domination of the running back touches, it appears he will remain in the fold no matter the game flow. Murray can be locked into lineups on a weekly basis without a second thought.

Karlos Williams, BUF

The month of September has revealed a true top running back in Buffalo, and it isn’t LeSean McCoy. Rookie Karlos Williams has a touchdown in all three games, averaging 7.75 yards per carry in the process. If at any point the Bills finally decide to rest McCoy and his injured hamstring for a game or two, Williams will instantly become a sure starter in fantasy leagues. With McCoy trying to play through his injury at less than 100%, Williams will continue to split time in the backfield, but will be a risky start for fantasy purposes. He’s at the point where you can start him if you’re desperate, but isn’t a must use quite yet.

Devonta Freeman, ATL

An injury to Tevin Coleman gave Devonta Freeman a chance to shine, and shine he did. 30 carries, 141 yards and three touchdowns was more than even the most optimistic Freeman owner could have possibly dreamed of when he became the man for Atlanta in Week 3. He was already steadily involved in the offense when Coleman was healthy, and Freeman likely played his way into an even bigger role when Coleman returns. At the very least, you can ride Freeman in your lineup as long as Coleman is out.

Falling

Justin Forsett, BAL

The second season as a full time starter in Baltimore isn’t going as planned for Justin Forsett. Through September, Forsett has zero touchdowns while averaging a modest 3.18 yards per carry. He is averaging 4 catches per game, but he’s turned those 12 receptions into only 41 receiving yards. Right now all Forsett owners can do is hope the Ravens continue to push forward and hope things turn around for the run game, but sooner or later they might decide to give a longer look to Lorenzo Talieferro or Buck Allen - a terrible thought for people who used such an early pick on Mr. Forsett.

C.J. Anderson, DEN

It has been a rough year for early round running backs. C.J. Anderson seemed primed to carry his late 2014 success over to 2015, but instead he is following in the footsteps of other recent Broncos starters that couldn’t get it going out of the gate. Anderson has only averaged 2.31 yards per carry while failing to surpass 29 yards rushing in a single game. He also has no touchdowns, so he’s not even salvaging any games for his fantasy owners. The Broncos have created an almost even split in the backfield, as Anderson has 32 carries on the year, while Ronnie Hillman has 28. Neither of them is having much success on the ground, as Hillman is only averaging 3.14 yards per carry. The Broncos running game as a whole needs a major turnaround if Anderson is going to return value for owners who drafted him in the first two rounds.

Jeremy Hill, CIN

It’s disappointing to see a third top 12 pre-season running back appear in this space in the same week. A two-touchdown game in Week 1 saved Jeremy Hill’s line for the season, but he has not performed up to the standards set when he was selected in the second round of most drafts. He is averaging just three yards per carry through three games. In Week 2, Hill was benched for fumbling. In Week 3, he only saw 28 snaps as Giovani Bernard saw 51. It’s a bad sign for Hill that he essentially disappears from the game plan in favor of Bernard when the Bengals go into pass heavy mode. He’s still probably a weekly starter due to a lack of depth at the position, but right now I’m not even certain that he is the best fantasy running back on his own team.

Wide Receiver

Rising

Steve Smith, BAL

For the past few seasons Steve Smith has been projected to fall off the old man cliff. And yet, every year, Smith stays in the fantasy picture. He’s off to a fast start again in 2015, coming off two straight games with 10 or more receptions and 150 or more receiving yards. There should be more opportunity for big weeks in the future as well, for two reasons. First, the Ravens offense is lacking in alternatives, at least until Breshad Perriman returns. Next, after the way Oakland and Cincinnati each scored on Baltimore, it seems as though the Ravens defense is in trouble. The more they give up, the more the offense will have to pass, and thus, the more chances Steve Smith will have to keep returning to the fountain of youth.

Rishard Matthews, MIA

Heading into the season, there were a number of potential number two receivers behind Jarvis Landry in the Dolphins receiving pecking order. Kenny Stills was a big trade acquisition. Greg Jennings is getting up there in age, but he has a strong history. DeVante Parker was drafted 14th overall in the NFL draft. So who has been that guy we were looking for? Rishard Matthews. He has six catches in two straight games, with 113 and 115 yards receiving in those games. Matthews is number two in targets and leads the team in yards per reception. Ryan Tannehill has thrown five touchdowns this year – three of them to Matthews. I believe it’s only a matter of time before DeVante Parker becomes the non-Landry wide receiver to own, but for now, ride the hot hand of Matthews while you can.

James Jones, GB

After short, unsuccessful tours in Oakland and the Greater New York City area, James Jones returned home to Green Bay, where he and Aaron Rodgers acted like they were never apart. Jones has four touchdowns in three games for the Packers. He is tied for second on the team in targets, and alone in second for receptions. Jones has 219 yards on the season, one of only two members of the Packers with at least 100 receiving yards (Randall Cobb, 245). Now with the unknown status of Davante Adams (ankle), Jones will have even more opportunity going forward in the Green Bay offense. Rodgers has always been able to sustain at least two strong fantasy wide receivers, and as long as Jones is one of those two as he has so far, he should get a lot of consideration for fantasy lineups.

Falling

Andre Johnson, IND

It’s sad to say, but it appears we are witnessing the end of Andre Johnson as a player of any fantasy usefulness. His catchless Week 3 leaves his season total at seven receptions for 51 yards. His 7.3 yards per catch are far worse than the top three receivers on the Colts, who are each at 11.8 or higher. At this point if you’re holding onto Johnson because of his name you should reconsider. A player’s name isn’t enough to waste a roster spot. I’m ready to bail on Johnson completely.

Golden Tate, DET

After a strong debut first season with the Lions, expectations were that Golden Tate could keep going strong in season 2. He went mid-4th round in the average draft, going off the board at around WR20. Through three games, he’s averaging under 54 yards per contest, hasn’t scored a touchdown, and is WR51 in standard leagues. Anyone who drafted him has likely used him each week, and they’ve been left with the following standard finishes: WR77, WR45, and WR49. He can for sure recover to the point of being useful for fantasy owners – and is a stud if anything happens to Calvin Johnson – but he should not be considered a must start right now.

Charles Johnson, MIN

One of the more popular picks of the summer for people in the seventh round and later was Charles Johnson. Pretty soon he will be one of the most popular drops of the year. Johnson has just six catches for 36 yards in three games. He is fourth in targets on a team that clearly has a run-first mentality. He’s also not doing himself any favors in his few opportunities to catch the ball: Johnson is 7th on the Vikings in YAC (yards after catch). I see no reason to continue holding him.

Tight End

Rising

Charles Clay, BUF

Signing in Buffalo was viewed as a huge detriment to Charles Clay as a fantasy asset, but so far, it seems that may not be the case. He has a touchdown in two straight games. Clay’s 12 receptions is tied for 10th most at tight end, and his 17 targets ties him for 11th. He’s second on the Bills in targets, only one behind team leader Percy Harvin. Clay’s statistical output could wind up being solid yet unspectacular, but solid is good enough for many fantasy lineups.

Jordan Reed, WAS

It appears we were all one year early on Jordan Reed. In 2014, Reed was a very popular late round tight end, but injuries derailed that. That upside seen before a poor 2014 has finally come out in 2015. His three finishes this season: TE8, TE9, and TE7. Not only has he been useful, but he’s been a must start. With at least 6 receptions each game and the third most targets in the NFL at the position, there’s nothing stopping him from continue at his TE1 pace (unless, of course, that injury bug rears its ugly head yet again).

Falling

Martellus Bennett, CHI

The first tight end off most draft boards after the clear top 4 (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce) was usually Martellus Bennett. He has not lived up to those high expectations thus far, as he’s been only the No.15 tight end in standard leagues. In his last two games, he’s finished 22nd and 34th at the position, barely helpful at all for fantasy owners. To make matters worse, Jimmy Clausen is the Bears quarterback for at least one more game, maybe more. For now, his owners just have to weather the storm and hope a bounce back comes soon, but the frustration over his September games are understandable.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN

A yearly tradition in the fantasy football world seems to be the wanting to declare Kyle Rudolph a top fantasy tight end. The other yearly tradition is the letdown for owners who believe the hype. So far in 2015, Rudolph has 30 yards or less in two of three games (53 in the third). He does lead the Vikings in targets, so that’s nice, but he’s turned those targets into less than 100 receiving yards. If he can’t produce as the team leader in targets, what happens if the targets drop off? I didn’t mean for this week’s Risers and Fallers turn into an attack on the Vikings passing game, it just kind of worked out that way. Adrian Peterson is the only member of the Minnesota offense I have any interest in utilizing in fantasy right now.