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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Free Agent TEs: Best-Case Scenario
2/27/15

We are now less than two weeks away from free agency kicking off in the NFL, and the landscape of fantasy football could change when that time comes. The values of players have the potential to make major shifts with the simple act of signing on the dotted line with a new team.

Over the next couple weeks, I will take a look at some of the most interesting names currently slated to hit free agency at each of the skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). I will pair each player with a team I think would be a best- case scenario for his fantasy value. I have already taken a look at the quarterback position. Today, I will examine the tight ends. I present them in alphabetical order, because this is not a ranking article.

The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. For example, I don’t know if Charles Clay is even interested in leaving Miami, or if the Packers will look to spend a ton of money at the tight end position. For the good of fantasy football, however, both moves would be ideal.

Jordan Cameron

Russell Wilson is in dire need of receiving options.

Jordan Cameron – Seattle Seahawks

The No. 1 weakness for the Seattle Seahawks is easily the receiving game. They have a bunch of secondary options but no big time receiving options. That’s how a guy like Chris Matthews can show up out of the blue and almost be a Super Bowl hero. Any receiving option that gets signed by Seattle this offseason has major fantasy potential, as he could instantly become the highest targeted player in Russell Wilson’s offense.

Putting Jordan Cameron in that situation would be ideal. Cameron had an injury- plagued 2014, but in 2013 he showed how talented he can be, when he reeled in 80 passes (on 117 targets) and finished as the fourth highest- scoring tight end in fantasy. No Seahawks player reached 117 targets in 2014, but then again, no Seahawks receiver is the threat that is Cameron. If he could get 117 targets from Russell Wilson (as opposed to his 2013 combo of Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden) he could be in for a career year in 2015.

The one worry with this option is whether Seattle would be concerned with Cameron’s blocking ability. If the rumors are true that the Seahawks attempted to deal Percy Harvin for Cameron last season, however, clearly that would mean the interest is there. If Cameron signs with the Seahawks, we’re looking at a tight end with top- five fantasy potential.

Charles Clay – Denver Broncos

With Julius Thomas and Virgil Green both set to hit free agency, the Broncos will be in the market for a new tight end in 2015. They’ll need a reliable pass-catcher that can be versatile enough to fit within a Peyton Manning-led offense. A perfect spot for Charles Clay.

Clay rarely drops passes and he can play all over the field. In Miami, he would line up inside, out wide and in the backfield (Clay is listed as a tight end/fullback on some websites). Like Cameron, his appeal comes from what he showed us in 2013 as opposed to his lackluster 2014. In 2013, Clay finished as the seventh- best fantasy tight end, catching 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns. 2014 wasn’t a complete disaster, but he only finished 16th at the position in 14 games played.

All those numbers could be moot if given the opportunity to join the Denver Broncos offense. Since 2007, there has only been one year where a Peyton Manning tight end failed to finish in the top 5 in FPts/G (2012, his first year with the Broncos). Putting Clay in that starting role with Denver has the potential to push his fantasy value from borderline starter to borderline elite.

Jermaine Gresham – Oakland Raiders

With the Bengals viewing Tyler Eifert as their future tight end, it appears Gresham is likely out the door. He has always been somewhat usable in fantasy, but not anywhere close to a game- changer. A new home could be just what the doctor ordered to turn the former first- round pick into a fantasy football asset.

The Oakland Raiders had a somewhat productive fantasy tight end in Mychal Rivera in 2014, but that does not make him the answer. It’s clear that quarterback Derek Carr has no problem targeting the position, as Rivera saw 100 targets (but only caught 58). Oakland knows it needs the help; otherwise it wouldn’t be the center of every Julius Thomas rumor.

Had Gresham received 100 targets in each of the past three years and maintained his catch rate, yards per reception and touchdown rate, he would have finished as a top- 12 tight end in each of those seasons. If Gresham goes to Oakland and takes over Rivera’s targets in that offense, there’s a good chance we have a fantasy starter on our hands.

Niles Paul – Atlanta Falcons

Niles Paul is the player on this list who could make the biggest overall jump in fantasy relevance depending on where he goes in free agency. Paul only finished 22nd in scoring at the position in 2014, but if you extrapolate his five games with no Jordan Reed in the Washington lineup over a full season, he would move up to 12th. That ranking could move even higher in the right situation – and that situation is the Atlanta Falcons.

Matt Ryan has always been heavy with the targets for his main receiving options. In five years of playing with Ryan, Tony Gonzalez averaged just over 120 targets per season. I’m not saying Paul is anywhere close to the same level as Gonzalez, but if he builds a rapport with Ryan, he could at least visit some pretty high levels of targets. With Roddy White on the down-slope of his career, there’s opportunity here to even push to become the second most popular target in Ryan’s eyes (behind Julio Jones).

New Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan would mean good things for Paul as well. In seven seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator, Shanahan has had a player finish in the top 11 in FPts/G at tight end five times (Owen Daniels in 2008 and 2009, Chris Cooley in 2010, Fred Davis in 2011 and Jordan Reed in 2013). If Paul joins the Ryan/ Shanahan combo in 2015, we may have our next breakout fantasy football star.

Julius Thomas – Green Bay Packers

This could be a match made in fantasy football heaven. Julius Thomas is on his way out the door in Denver, while Green Bay has been aching to find a big receiving tight end for years. The Thomas to Green Bay plan would likely only work if the Packers can’t bring Randall Cobb back, which would actually make the thought of Thomas in Green Bay even more appealing.

In 2014, Thomas finished seventh in fantasy at the tight end position and second in FPts/G, despite only 62 targets in 12 games played. Over the last two years, Thomas has scored 24 total touchdowns, second only to Jimmy Graham in that time. Cobb and Packers tight ends caught a combined 18 touchdowns in 2014, so there would be plenty more scoring action available for Thomas in Wisconsin.

If Thomas makes his way to Green Bay and manages just 90 of Aaron Rodgers’ targets, he could easily maintain his status of top- 3 fantasy tight end. Depending on how quickly he learns the Packers offense and builds chemistry with Rodgers, we could be talking about Thomas as the No. 1 pick at the position by the time 2016 drafts roll around.