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Eli Mack | Archive | Email
Staff Writer

Five to Struggle, Five to Shine
8/14/15

Struggle

Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR – It’s enticing. I’m sure it is. After years of teaming with DeAngelo Williams, Stewart now has the backfield essentially all to himself. We look at that and conclude that Stewart is now in a position to deliver stellar numbers, so we draft him perhaps higher than we should. I think the ship has sailed on Stewart’s ability to lead a fantasy team toward any plausible success. Part of his allure is the 20 rushing TDs he scored during his first two seasons. We remember that production and automatically assume we’re getting “that” Jonathan Stewart.

Since those 20 TDs back in 2008 and 2009, Stewart has scored a grand total of 14 TDs in the five subsequent seasons—INCLUDING receiving TDs. And when you consider Cam Newton has three more rushing TDs in three fewer seasons, you begin to realize that Stewart’s value is based solely on his assumed bell cow role in Carolina’s offense. Well, I’m not buying the hype, and neither should you. I’ll let somebody else drink the Stewart Kool-Aid this season.

C.J. Anderson

Struggle or Shine? Is C.J. Anderson's 1.08 average draft position too lofty for the third-year RB?

C.J. Anderson, RB DEN – Anderson a first round pick going into 2015? That’s laughable. Are we so desperate for productive running backs in fantasy football that we elevate a player with a eight-game track record to such a lofty status? Anderson only got his opportunity because both Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball were sidelined due to injury. Plus, Peyton Manning’s quad injury forced the Broncos to lean more on their running game.

So I guess those who are buying into the Anderson hype want the rest of us to believe Anderson will continue his productive flurry despite Hillman and Ball’s return, as well as Manning’s improved health. There is absolutely no way I’d invest a top-12 pick on Anderson. No way. He had a fantastic six-game run to close out 2014 (648 yards, 8 TDs) no doubt. But we’re supposed to expect him to pick up where he left off? Not a chance. I’d suggest targeting Montee Ball and his 11.01 ADP for better value.

Andre Ellington, RB ARZ – The Cardinals have done everything to give Ellington the chance to lead their running game. But either through injury, poor play or both, he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. As a result, the team invested a third round pick in this year’s draft on bruising runner David Johnson out of Northern Iowa. Ellington will still get an opportunity to produce, and it will be that glimmer of hope that may lead many fantasy owners to give the third year back another crack at it.

For all the hype thrown Ellington’s way, especially heading into last season, he has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing once in his career. His 85 career receptions show he has some versatility, but there’s simply not enough “there there” when it comes to Ellington. There’s no need in trying to get cute during your draft and deciding to draft Ellington. I’d suggest you wait three or four rounds and pick up David Johnson instead.

Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ – Why is Brandon Marshall, as talented as he is, now on his fourth NFL team? He’s had more than 100 catches in five of his nine seasons, and eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in seven of those nine. So again I ask, why are the Jets his fourth team? Whatever that answer may be, it won’t help his cause heading into 2015. The quarterback situation in New York leaves a lot to be desired, and now with Geno Smith out until at least the beginning of October, the prospects of Marshall doing anything of note are now stunted.

So in essence, Marshall’s decline in production this year will have much more to do with what’s around him than his skill set alone. He’s going late in the fifth round in 12-team drafts, which makes him a mid-level WR2. I’d have some serious trepidation with him as my WR2. Try looking elsewhere.

Julius Thomas, TE JAC – This prediction isn’t exactly going out on a limb; it’s common knowledge that Thomas’ production will most assuredly take a nosedive in Jacksonville after a pair of 12-TD seasons in Denver. The Jags have a slew of young players at receiver, meaning the 27-year-old will become the de facto leader of the receiving corps.

QB Blake Bortles enters his second season after showing some promise last year. Bortles, however, will have to mature as a player mighty fast if Thomas is to live up to his 7.08 ADP. I don’t see it happening and would therefore steer clear from Thomas. I’d personally rather have a Zach Ertz (8.02 ADP) or Owen Daniels (8.04 ADP). Let somebody else in your league live in the past with Thomas.

Shine

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN – Hill began last season as Giovani Bernard’s backup, but Cincy’s running game soon became Hill’s to lose. Sure, Gio was there to serve as a change-of-pace back and a receiving option, but Hill was THE guy. That’s not going to change much this year. With a year under his belt, Hill could very well pick up where he left off.

Watching Hill last year brought back memories of Cincinnati running back Rudi Johnson circa 2004-2006. Johnson was a steady, between-the-tackles runner who gave fantasy owners solid production. Hill is essentially a younger version of Johnson. The Bengals scored the second-most running TDs last year with 19. With Hill getting the starting nod from the outset, it’s not out of the question that he gets comfortably in the double-digits in touchdowns. He’s slightly less valuable in PPR leagues, but he’s still a top fantasy back nonetheless. Hill is someone you should target as an RB1 at the top of the 2nd round, if you go QB or WR in the 1st.

Jordan Matthews, WR PHI – I’m not the biggest Chip Kelly fan, I’ll say that at the outset. But we all know fantasy football is not a congeniality contest. Kelly is a heck of an offensive coach, and it is his ingenuity that gives his players an enormous boost in value. The Eagles offense is yearning for a productive option, especially in light of Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson being shipped out over the last season or so.

Matthews is the best of the bunch in terms of Philly receivers, and most are really, really young—31-year-old Miles Austin notwithstanding. Matthews will be counted on to lead the way in the passing game as rookie Nelson Agholor learns the ropes in the NFL. Part of what makes Matthews an intriguing player heading into 2015 is the quick-pace philosophy of Kelly, which translates into more plays within a shorter period of time. Matthews finished last season with 67 receptions and 8 TDs; you should expect him to get closer to 80-85 catches while reaching double digits in scores. He’s a solid WR2 heading into this season.

Latavius Murray, RB OAK – Murray is no doubt the lead dog of this Raiders ground game. Roy Helu Jr. is a solid complement, and Michael Dyer is in the mix as well. Trent Richardson may have difficulty making the final roster with his archaic running style, leaving the ground game to Murray. He only had 82 rushing attempts last season, playing behind fragile Darren McFadden. With DMC now in Dallas, the running game is Murray’s.

What boosts his stock more than anything is the continued improvement of the players around him. QB Derek Carr enters year two after a solid rookie performance and WR Amari Cooper makes his NFL debut in 2015, giving the offense in Oakland a level of optimism it hasn’t seen in a decade. Murray is going in the early 4th round in standard leagues, making him a mid-level RB2 with upside.

Joseph Randle, RB DAL – How’s this for an interesting stat: in 2014, DeMarco Murray had three runs of 40-plus yards on 392 carries; on 51 carries, Joseph Randle had two runs of 40-plus yards. That doesn’t mean Randle is better suited to lead the running game in Dallas, but it does speak to a level of explosiveness Randle has and that Murray doesn’t.

Randle is the frontrunner to become the lead dog in Dallas’ backfield, as oft-injured Darren McFadden tweaked his hamstring hours into this year’s training camp. Lance Dunbar is limited as a change-of-pace back, so he shouldn’t be a concern to Randle owners. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan mentioned earlier this summer that the team will not deter too far from its run-heavy philosophy from 2014, meaning Randle should get plenty of opportunities—maybe not to the tune of 392 to match Murray’s attempts from last season, but he should tote the rock enough to put up RB2-worthy numbers.

Keenan Allen, WR SD – Allen entered 2014 as a borderline WR1 fantasy receiver after a stellar 2013 season. Although his numbers dipped in 2014, his opportunities didn’t. Allen actually had more targets and receptions (121/77) last year than in his rookie campaign (105/71), but his yards per reception and total TDs plummeted.

Allen enters this year as the unquestioned top receiving option in San Diego. Tight end Antonio Gates’ four-game suspension catapults Allen to that status, not to mention the shortage of quality receiving depth behind him. Names such as Malcom Floyd, Steve Johnson, Jacoby Jones and others certainly don’t bring much fear to defensive backfields around the league. I expect Allen to up his reception total in Gates’ absence, thanks in large measure to a lot of underneath routes. Consequently, he will have heightened value more in PPR leagues than in standard leagues.