Week 5
10/4/02
While at the same time hitting two good underdog picks with the
Cowboys and Panthers last week, the Bears and Saints let us down.
The money plays were 2-2, while we went 8-6 overall. Not bad on
the overall but certainly not enough to win your office pool. Hoping
for a better result, but it looks like some tough choices this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
This seems to be a game about two teams headed in opposite directions,
notwithstanding the Saints dismal performance last week in a loss
to Detroit. Based on what we've seen from these teams so far this
year, the Saints look like the obvious pick. However, a closer
examination reveals they don't have the personnel available this
week to exploit Pittsburgh's inability to stop teams that have
lined up in multiple receiver sets against them. Donte Stallworth
is out and Joe Horn will play, but is banged up. Jerome Pathon
has put up good numbers, but isn't much of a threat going over
the middle. This week we likely get to see what Pittsburgh can
do against a conventional offense. Look for their linebackers
to bust out this week and the defense to win the game for the
Steelers on the road, provided Tommy Maddox doesn't throw the
game away.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)
Chad Pennington gets the start for the Jets this week and LaMont
Jordan may not be very far from replacing Curtis Martin. The way
the Jets are playing, they may be best to get a glimpse of what
the future holds, because presently they look like one of the
worst teams in the league. The Chiefs stunned the Dolphins last
week with an impressive aerial attack the fans had been waiting
for ever since Trent Green came to town. Can Green duplicate that
effort this week? Even if he can't, Priest Holmes will be too
much to handle for the Jets porous run defense. Pennington may
provide some spark to an offense that has mustered only 13 points
in it's last 3 games, but the Chiefs are playing with a lot of
confidence right now and should handle the Jets even away from
home.
St. Louis Rams (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
We all know about the Rams' problems, but the 49ers have struggled
this year and have lost six straight to the Rams. Jeff Garcia
has played his worst games against the Rams and has been unable
to get the ball to Terrell Owens this year. The Rams need to ride
Marshall Faulk to a victory and hope their defense or special
teams comes up with some big plays. Expect a low scoring matchup
and for the 49ers to prevail but not by a touchdown.
[Editor's Note: There was a difference on opinion on this
one as Dave did the writeup and likes the Rams, and I (Mike),
like the 49ers to finally exact some revenge on the Rams for those
6 straight losses. We're settling this with a friendly wager between
us.]
Baltimore Ravens (1-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
The Ravens were a real surprise Monday night. The Broncos should
have walked over them but some inspired play from Ray Lewis, plus
undisciplined and sloppy play by the Broncos led to a Ravens victory.
Still, they could have let that game slip away after building
a 31-3 half time lead if not for some timely interceptions. Throw
out the blocked punt and missed FG returned for a TD and then
what is the result? The Ravens lose to a team that was not sharp
at all.
As for the Browns, they lost in overtime to a Steelers team that
was desperate to avoid falling to 0-3. The Browns have trouble
defending the run, but perhaps are finally getting their running
game in order by realizing Jamel White is the answer, not rookie
William Green. Tim Couch needs to show last week was an off week
or Kelly Holcomb could make a return appearance before long. The
Browns defense should severely limit Chris Redman as long as they
pay extra attention to Todd Heap, and the Browns should put up
points as the Ravens come down from their high on Monday night.
Plus, Cleveland always has extra motivation against the team that
left town back in 1996 and went on to win a Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (3-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Two of the hottest teams to start the season stumbled last week
as the Patriots fell to the Chargers and the Dolphins lost to
the Chiefs. Were each of them looking ahead to this showdown for
1st place? Maybe, but really the respective defenses for each
team just played bad. The Patriots have been unable to stop the
run the past 2 games while the Dolphins secondary was schooled
by Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez and company.
Both offenses continue to look solid. The Patriots on the arm
of Tom Brady and the Dolphins on the back of Ricky Williams. While
the Patriots might be able to slow Ricky, who is more a straight
ahead runner than shifty Priest Holmes and cutback LaDainian Tomlinson,
the Dolphins will have their hands full with Brady and his myriad
of receivers. Dolphins have recent history in their favor, but
Troy Brown is expected to play while Patrick Surtain is still
listed as questionable. Excellent chance this one comes down to
a FG.
Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Before the Titans could blink they were down 21-0 last week to
the Raiders. We can blame injuries a little, which now include
Derrick Mason and Samari Rolle, but this team just looks bad.
They can't run the ball and the pass defense is horrible. Steve
McNair is going to have to air out the offense, which is where
losing Mason really hurts them. Enter another bad team, the Redskins.
It looks like Danny Wuerffel will be the starter. Danny Wuerffel?
Oh brother. Hopefully the defense can start living up to its'
potential because with Wuerffel at the helm, I'm not expecting
a whole lot from the offense outside of Stephen Davis. That might
be enough. Take the points in what could be the ugliest game of
the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Tough call between the underachieving Buccaneers and the surprising
Falcons. The Falcons are 1-2 but both losses were by a total of
4 points. The Bucs can't get their ground game untracked but have
made enough plays to win by spreading the ball around. This will
be Warrick Dunn's first game against his old team and combined
with Michael Vick they will challenge Bucs linebackers with their
speed. Look for Bucs to throw enough looks at Vick to confuse
him into some bad throws and to win the game by winning the turnover
margin.
Oakland Raiders (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-2)
You want scoring, this one will have it, or at least, is supposed
to after both teams have each rolled up 30 or more points in every
game this season except Buffalo's trip to Denver. The Raiders
got a big boost from their special teams last week with 2 TD,
which has to be some concern to the Bills. The Bills seem like
a good home dog play here, but the difference maker in this game
is turnovers. The Bills are fumbling at inopportune times and
the Raiders are doing well to create turnovers. Also, the Raiders
are protective of the ball and the Bills defense hasn't picked
off a pass yet in 4 games. That could certainly be their undoing
in this one.
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)
This one should be a low scoring affair with the outcome hinging
on turnovers and special teams. Carolina is plus five in turnover
margin and have had good special teams play (other than last week's
last second miss by Shayne Graham) while Arizona's return units
have been more explosive this year. Cardinals are 5-5 in their
last 10 road games.
New York Giants (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Where do we start? Neither team can run consistently or pass
consistently and the passing attacks are prone to turnovers. On
defense, you have to like what the Giants have done this year
and they get to go up against a severely banged up Cowboys offensive
line. Giants secondary has played much better than expected and
should be able to shut down the Cowboys receivers. Cowboys might
be in for a letdown after big 4th quarter win over the Rams.
Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Bengals enter this one in deep trouble and you have to wonder
whether Dick LeBeau has lost his team, which starts their third
different quarterback in three weeks. He can't make up his mind
at QB and it's doubtful his players have any confidence in his
ability to turn this thing around. Bengals enter the game averaging
a pathetic 5.8 points per game having played against San Diego,
Cleveland, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. Watching the Bengals offense
it's clear they have no identity to speak of, despite it being
clear to a casual NFL fan their offense needs to revolve around
Corey Dillon and a ball control offense. Of course, they have
been playing their 1st round pick Levi Jones, an offensive tackle,
at tight end because they don't have a tight end who can block.
Go figure - a team whose offense should revolve around a power
running game and they don't have the foresight to have a tight
end who can block. Now Jones is required to start at left tackle
because of Richmond Webb's season ending injury, unless, of course,
they use somebody else at tackle and Jones at tight end. Laugh
if you want, but ask yourself if you'd be surprised by it. Bye
bye, Dick, and bye bye Bengals in this one.
San Diego Chargers (4-0) at Denver Broncos (3-1)
Here is the feature midday game Sunday as both teams should have
been 4-0 entering this one. Unfortunately the Broncos tanked it
against the Ravens on Monday night giving them their first loss
of the year. The Chargers are living large with LaDainian Tomlinson
carrying the load and the defense is playing stellar. Talk about
Marty Schottenheimer's dream come true coaching this team. Tomlinson
is in for a tough test against the Broncos run defense, which
is allowing on average less than 60 yards per game. Still, neither
Brian Griese nor the Broncos running game has looked sharp for
a consistent stretch and they should struggle against this defense.
As long as Drew Brees makes smart decisions picking his spots,
this one comes down to the wire, meaning I'll take the points
and the team that is playing better right now.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
Salary cap hell or not, all of a sudden the Jaguars are competing
for the division title with a healthy Fred Taylor leading the
charge. Mind you, it helps the division is weak and the Jets came
gift wrapped last Sunday allowing the Jags to rack up over 220
yards on the ground. The Eagles are ranked among the league leaders
defending the run, but this seems to be a bit tainted given they
haven't faced a team really excelling at that aspect of the game.
Taylor could give them some trouble. The real story with the Eagles
is the offense as Donovan McNabb is on fire. He is sure to give
the Jaguars defense a headache as they are not a deep team and
McNabb has plenty of options to use in the passing game. This
won't be a walk in the park but we'll pull for the favorite here.
Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (2-2)
Marquee Monday night matchup between the top, yet underachieving,
teams in the NFC North. Joe Johnson and Hardy Nickerson were expected
to solidify the Packers defense but it hasn't happened. The team
hasn't adequately replaced Leroy Butler and this takes away from
Darren Sharper's ability to freelance and make plays. Packers
offense hasn't gotten untracked, as Ahman Green is banged up and
hasn't found the end zone and their receivers are also banged
up. This week they get to face a Bears defense that is missing
four starters. Latest loss is Warrick Holdman but they have a
respectable replacement in Mike Caldwell.
Bears offense is again a disappointment and the rushing attack
was very weak against a poor Bills front seven. Passing offense
can't seem to put it together despite having four starting calibre
wideouts. Pressure is on Jim Miller in this one and it's hard
to believe he'll be the starter after this week unless he comes
up with a win. Look for them to hand the ball off to Anthony Thomas
to set up the play action where they will attack strong safety
Matt Bowen who helped give up two big plays in last week's game
against the Panthers. Don't expect this one to be a barn burner.
Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds.
Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops,
Olympic
Sports,  SportingbetUSA
and  SportsInteraction.
These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling
purposes only.
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
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