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Mike MacGregor | Archive | Email
Staff Writer


Crystal Ball Game Previews
Week 2
9/13/02

Time to dust off the crystal ball for what will hopefully be another successful season betting a few friendly football wagers. Always tough in the early going, which is partly why we skipped week 1, but now we have no excuses. Here is how we foresee a handful of games for week 2.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Both teams enter this one having won their season openers, the Packers at home and the Saints on the road. The Packers overcame a lackluster effort against the Falcons while the Saints upset the Bucs. The line on this one seems to indicate the oddsmakers have placed too much emphasis on last week's results and not enough on what happened during the preseason. Here's a refresher: the Packers challenge for a Super Bowl berth and the Saints are a huge question mark. The Packers may not be as good as advertised but the questions about the Saints remain.

Look for Brett Favre to have a big day against a banged up Saints secondary. His receivers might not be great but they're much better than the Saints cornerbacks. Ahman Green may have trouble running the ball inside against the Saints interior linemen, but he has the speed to get outside and head coach Mike Sherman will run up the middle just enough to keep the Saints defense honest. The Saints will likely have to play their safeties deep to help out in pass coverage and that will keep Sammy Knight away from the line of scrimmage.

With their secondary in tatters, the Saints will look to establish their running game against a Packers defense that underperformed last week. Whether Deuce McAllister is up to the task remains a question. He had over 100 yards last week, but didn't average four yards per carry. That won't get it done this week. More likely, if the Saints are to win, QB Aaron Brooks will have to be productive in the passing game and get some first downs with his running ability. The Saints have three quality WR in Joe Horn, Jerome Pathon and Donte Stallworth and the Packers aren't loaded in the secondary. They could pull this one out with a couple of deep plays.

 Pick: PACKERS  Best Odds: Packers -2.0 -105 at SportingbetUSA

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
The theme for the week 2 lines seems to be to dog the team that played below expectations last week and favor the team that played better than expected. In this game, the theme translates to the Falcons being favored over the Bears, which would not have been the case if this was a week 1 matchup.

The Falcons lost cornerback Ray Buchanan to suspension this week and that certainly won't help their cause. That leaves Ashley Ambrose to cover Marty Booker and Fred Weary will matchup against Dez White or Marcus Robinson. Look for the Bears to pound the ball against an undersized Atlanta front three. The Falcons have decent linebackers but they are still learning Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense. Provided the Bears avoid turnovers, their offense should be able to move the ball, win the field position game, and put points on the board.

The Bears lost R.W. McQuarters and Philip Daniels this week, key components to their pass defense and pass rush. However, the Falcons do not have a deep threat to take advantage of any pass defense deficiencies and the key to their offense is Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick. Quite simply, the Bears have the best linebacking unit in the league and they possess the speed and athletic ability to neutralize Dunn and Vick, who will make some plays but not enough to pull out a win.

 Pick: BEARS  Best Odds: Bears +3.0 -110 at Intertops

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens
Did anyone watch much of the Panthers-Ravens game last week? There was little reason to, since there were about, lets see, 9 other games that were more interesting being played at the same time. Oh how the former champs have fallen. Sure the defense only allowed 10 points, but that was against a team sporting Rodney Peete at the helm and Lamar Smith in the backfield. Quite obviously, the Ravens defense is a shell of it's former self, allowing 145 yards rushing to the Panthers. The Ravens offense produced a TD in the first quarter but were then shutout the rest of the way. Chris Redman and his receivers will have a much tougher test facing the Bucs defense, and it still remains to be seen how effective Jamal Lewis can be. He carried the ball only 17 times last week for 64 yards.

As for the Bucs offense, they took the first half off in week 1 looking pretty down right horrible. Michael Pittman had little success running, which was an area the Saints defense focussed on in the offseason, so the Bucs abandoned that. This led to Brad Johnson tossing the ball 52 times in the game. Fortunately, the passes started to click in the second half with good distribution to Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Pittman and Joe Jurevicius. The Bucs scored 17 points in the second half to force overtime, which they eventually lost on a failed punt attempt from their own end zone. Of note for this game is McCardell is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Even if McCardell sits, the Bucs should be too much for the Ravens on both sides of the ball this day. The Bucs defense should shutdown the inexperienced Ravens offense with relative ease. If the Ravens defense cannot get sufficient and sustained pressure on Brad Johnson, he and his receivers will have their way with the secondary. The Bucs offense will be effective enough to score points on the Ravens defense, preferably with more balance in the running game. The Bucs seemed to build confidence in the second half last week as the players realized, "hey, this guy Gruden might actually know what he is doing." Brian Billick is going to have a tough time keeping his troops motivated in what is obviously a sinking ship.

 Pick: BUCS  Best Odds: Bucs -3.5 -110 at Intertops and Olympic Sports

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
The defenses for both of these teams were supposed to be fairly tough to face this season. It wouldn't appear that way from watching either of their performances in week 1 though, as both were horrid against the run, applied no pressure on the opposing QB and, where it counts, allowed a combined 74 points.

Starting with the Bengals, the Chargers had their way with them rushing 45 times for 241 yards. This was really baffling, as the Bengals were one of the stingier run defenses to finish off 2001. The personnel hasn't changed other than the loss of SLB Steve Foley (shoulder injury). While the defense apparently just didn't show up, they shouldn't take all the blame. The players quickly wore down because the offense managed to hold the ball for less than 23:00 minutes of the game. The Chargers defense is good, but the Bengals handing the ball off to Corey Dillon only 9 times is ridiculous, especially because Gus Frerotte is not going to beat too many defenses without a threat of a running game. The Bengals should see the error of their ways this week and get Dillon much more involved, especially since the Browns allowed Priest Holmes to run crazy on them for 122 yards and 4 TD on 22 carries.

Quite obviously, the Browns should have won the game last week if not for Dwayne Rudd losing his head. It was the passing game that led the charge with Kelly Holcomb starting in place of injured Tim Couch. Holcomb connected 27 of 39 passes for 326 yards and it was a coming out party for second year WR Quincy Morgan who caught 9 passes for 151 yards and 2 TD. Coach Butch Davis really wants to establish a running game this year, but rookie William Green is doing very little to support this. He was held to a paltry 17 yards on 8 carries, which leaves Jamel White the primary back until Green gets his act together. It seems unlikely at this point the Browns will get more production from the running game this week. RT Ryan Tucker (sprained knee) is questionable and C Dave Wohlabaugh (fractured hand) is out. Look for the Browns to once again rely on an aerial attack, which should suit them because the Bengals secondary is where they are vulnerable. Kelly Holcomb will probably start again.

There was a lot of positive talk in Bengals camp during the preseason. This week will be a good test as to whether week 1 was just an aberration for them. Bengals utilize good running game and run defense, but have soft secondary. Browns rely on pass and have a good secondary, but cannot run. Should be a pretty even divisional matchup with expectations that the Bengals rebound with lots of motivation from last week's sad display.

 Pick: BENGALS  Best Odds: Bengals +5.0 -110 at SportsInteraction

Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds. Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops, Olympic Sports, SportingbetUSA and SportsInteraction.

These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling purposes only.


Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator of Pro Football Analysis.com, which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping NFL football.