Overvalued

Deuce McAllister, NO
Average Draft Position: 1.06
I like McAllister. I love his speed. I love his hands. The Saints were right in trading Ricky Williams and sticking with Deuce. He had 1074 rushing yards and 9 TDs in only 14 starts in 2004. The Saints upgraded their offensive line this off-season signing free agent Jermane Mayberry and drafting tackle Jamal Brown in the first round. All of that being said, McAllister going as the fifth running back and sixth overall player is too early in my book. The coaches in New Orleans are saying they want to get McAllister 25+ touches a game. I believe if they do, McAllister will wear down. He had huge problems in college staying healthy and this is why he dropped to New Orleans in the late first round in the 2001 NFL Draft. Also McAllister He has only averaged 8.5 touchdowns in the last two seasons... numbers not worthy of a top-6 pick. Will McAllister do well? He will, but not well enough to warrant his average draft position.

Julius Jones, DAL
Average Draft Position: 2.02
Being a Notre Dame fan I know a lot about Julius Jones. He underachieved his first two years in college. totaling 750 rushing yards. To make matters worse he got suspended for the entire 2002 season because of poor grades. He spent the next off season working out with his brother, Thomas Jones (who played for Tampa Bay at the time). He came in his senior year as a backup to Ryan Grant but eventually took over the job and rushed for 1268 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had three games with 200+ rushing yards and averaged 8.76 yards per carry in those games. Jones is an explosive back but also is a little undersized, standing 5-10 and 200 pounds. He was injured twice in his first season with the Cowboys suffering bruised ribs in the season opener then breaking his shoulder blade in week two and ended up sitting on the sideline the next two months. Jones finally came back in week eleven and looked great rushing for 803 yards and 7 touchdowns in the final seven games. Those statistics are nice, but he also averaged 27 carries in those seven games. His durability is certainly a question mark and as a result should not be drafted ahead of backs like Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson and Tiki Barber.

J.J. Arrington, ARI
Average Draft Position: 4.04
I have never been one to jump on rookies too early in redraft leagues. It is hard for them to break into the starting lineup because there is much to learn in a pro-style offensive system. Head coaches demand that their backs be proficient in all areas, especially blocking and receiving. It may seem from the outside that Arrington is a cinch to be the starting running back in Arizona. It would not totally surprise me to see a player like Marcel Shipp behind the quarterback on opening day. Shipp has always been a good player when he is able to avoid injuries and stay on the field. (Note: Shipp is back at practice after missing time with an injured hamstring.) He has 1664 rushing yards for an average of four yards a carry with only 17 career starts. I would rather draft a Michael Bennett or even Fred Taylor (yes I know he is coming off an injury) over an Arrington in a redraft league.

Undervalued

Ahman Green, GB
Average Draft Position: 2.03
Ahman Green was a top five fantasy pick heading into 2004. He had 1883 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns to go with 50 catches for 367 receiving yards in 2003. How the mighty have fallen. Green started off 2004 very strong rushing for 864 yards and 7 touchdowns in the first nine games. He ended up getting hurt in week eleven against Houston suffering a rib injury and missed the next week’s Monday night game against St. Louis. He did play in the final five games of the season but he was clearly playing hurt and only averaged 56 yards rushing and scored just 1 TD in those games. Fantasy owners think he is slowing down because of the decline in his statistics but he didn’t seem to be slowing down in the first half of 2004. Maybe it is just me but I do not write Green off just yet. He's still more than capable of being a #1 fantasy RB.

Rudi Johnson, CIN
Average Draft Position: 2.05
After the Bengals traded disgruntled Corey Dillon to the New England Patriots, there was still some doubt in the back of their minds that Rudi Johnson could handle the responsibility of being a number one RB... he did have a tough act to follow. Dillon averaged 1253 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns from 1997-2002 on Cincinnati teams that were, let's say.... not very good. Dillon was the focus of opposing defenses each and every week. Rudi Johnson did not only do well but he set a franchise record with 1454 rushing yards and also matched Dillon’s career high in TDs (12) set with the Patriots in 2004. Not too shabby for a guy who had to fight to keep his job at the beginning of the season. I guess fantasy owners need more proof of Johnson’s talent but I'm not sure what else he has to do. I do know he is undervalued being taken as the fifteenth RB in fantasy drafts.

Travis Henry, TEN
Average Draft Position: 6.11
Apparently loyalty counts for the nothing in the NFL. Travis Henry seemed to be playing with some sort of injury each week in the 2002 and 2003 seasons. He played with cracked ribs, a fractured leg, and all he did was average 1397 rushing yards and 12.5 touchdowns in those seasons. You think the Bills would not only be happy with his play but reward him with a new contract. No such luck. Instead, Buffalo drafts a running back in the first round (Willis McGahee) and one year later ships Henry to Tennessee. So McGahee is now the starter In Buffalo after a nice 2004 season and Henry, unhappy with his status in Buffalo, who gets his trade wish granted. Henry will battle Incumbent Chris Brown for playing time in Tennessee who had a nice, but injury-filled season in 2004. Brown rushed for 1067 yards in only 10 starts but missed the other five games because of injuries. Brown's inability to stay healthy in the early part of his career is such a concern that Tennessee was willing to trade a third round draft pick for Henry. Expect to see Henry involved in the Titans offense even with a healthy Chris Brown and don't be shocked if his toughness vaults him to the main ball-carrier by season's end.