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Avoid The Urge To Splurge
8/4/08

For starters, the players listed below aren’t to be completely forgotten on draft day (like the Terry Glenns, Mike Vanderjagts, running backs with three bad knees, and of course Steve McNair – ok, you can forget him now that he’s sitting on his porch in Mississippi) but what I am saying is that they should not be considered at their current value positions. Avoid reaching for these players and you will not only prevent a weekly set of headaches, but you’ll also have a 30% better chance to fence off early balding, prompt graying, butter-induced blood pressure, and that oh-so painful admission that you’re looking up at the 11 other football degenerates who spent the summer pilfering through cheat sheets and news updates in a futile search for the next Ryan Grant. Think of that view from the bottom of the standings then try to convince me that a seeing-eye dog and a limber walking stick wouldn’t be an upgrade.

I think most of these players will have decent years, at least be fantasy relevant, but don’t drink the Kool-Aid before I add sugar – because this foliage of fantasy advice is enough sugar to stun a hungry pack of 9-year-olds at recess. If a great value arises on draft day, feel free to take the gamble, but remember gambling is not only illegal in most states, but owners of casinos are also very rich for a reason. These guys won’t meet expectations – is that sweet enough?

I’m forfeiting my love for many of these gridiron heroes, but only for your benefit. I’m looking into my gut here, and aside from an interesting mix of assorted foreign foods, I see a bland fantasy future and many painful weekend box scores for the plethora of feeble fantasy foes that select these players.

For those already invested in these guys or those still interested in doing so: Fear not my message board mongrels, I could be wrong – it’s happened before…twice.

Like E Coli, Salmonella, and yellow snow – these are things you should steer clear of on draft day. Without more deliberation, err, alliteration and one-lined zingers here are my players to avoid in 2008 drafts (in no particular order).

RB Brian Westbrook, PHI – Let it be known that Brian Westbrook is one of my favorite players in the league. This guy never gets his due – he’s one of the very best running backs that will touch the field this season. However, he’s been injury prone, and lately he’s been getting too many carries – basically, I think he’s bound to have a painful season. I don’t like the running schemes in Philly, and while there’s a chance this comes back to haunt me, I just don’t see him as a Top 10 RB in 2008, and he’s getting picked Top 5 in ever draft I’ve been a part of. Great player? You bet, but be ready for three words; probable, questionable, and out.

QB Tom Brady, NE – Best quarterback in the league again? Yeah, but it will be close. Tom won’t throw as much in 2008, but he should still get close to 30 touchdowns. But 30 scores aren’t worth his mid-first round value, so don’t be the guy that takes this sure thing. It will be a long time before someone repeat’s Tom’s ’07 magic. Quarterbacks aren’t 1st round material, I promise. He’ll be good, but not that good.

RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG – While I think Jacobs is a nice back, his rough running style and his history of injuries continues to keep a red flag by his name. If that wasn’t enough – look at the damage Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw did when given the chance. I think Ward is solid, and Bradshaw is my pick for the best back on the defending champs’ roster. Lots of lemons are working against Jacobs.

Willie Parker

Willie's days of being a top-tier running back are over.

RB Willie Parker, PIT – Like everybody else, I think the story of Fast Willie Parker is a fantasy dream. Back-up guy in college, nobody expected a thing from him, and whammy, he takes over in the Steel City and turns into a first round talent. Unlike a lot of people, I think Willie’s days of being a top-tier running back are over. He’ll still produce, don’t get it twisted, but he’s not a touchdown guy in the first place and with Mendenhall ready to handle a lot of carries (and Rashard is going to be a good one, let me tell ya) Willie will get even less chances to touch down in the end zone. He’s getting picked as a starting back, and I don’t think much more than 1000 yards and 5 scores can be expected.

WR Dwayne Bowe, KC – I like Bowe a lot. I’ve said more than once that he is going to be a stud and he didn’t disappoint in his inaugural season. However, this guy still has to deal with Brodie Croyle, a young offensive line, and a team that just isn’t that good. The Chiefs should be behind enough in 2008, and Dwayne will put up solid numbers, but there are a lot of experts expecting the world from a receiver on a terrible passing team – that there just don’t make no sense.

WR Kevin Curtis, PHI – No. I hate looking at Kevin’s overall numbers from last year because if numbers never lie than his digits definitely disguise a very mediocre joke. 77 receptions, 1110 yards, and 6 scores… Not bad eh? HA! Take away game 3 against the Lions when everyone in fantasy football had him on the bench, and his new numbers look like this – 66 catches, 890 yards, 3 scores. Yes, that’s more like it. If you add the fact that Curtis (in a non-ppr league) scores 6 points or less 10 times, this guy just doesn’t do it for me. If there’s one saving grace, Curtis had solid games against 4 horrendous passing defenses – so if the Eagles play the Lions, and you feel lucky, start the little guy – but don’t pick him thinking he’s startable on a weekly basis, because his numbers are just joking.

WR Marvin Harrison, IND – Regardless of his questioned involvement in a shooting (trigger-puller) and his quarterback on the mend (Big Brother Peyton), Marvin is just getting old. He’s a receiver, so it’s not like he’s completely useless, but please don’t tap into the draft and pretend that you are getting the old (young) Marvin Harrison with a clever 4th round pick. Wayne is the man in Indy, and little Gonzo and Dallas Clark are two more very good options down field. Add Addai’s receiving skills and the return of Dominic Rhodes and I just don’t see enough balls to make Marv a stud once again. Old age, bad knees, fingerprints – these aren’t good things.

WR Donald Driver, GB – It’s not that I don’t like Driver but that I like Greg Jennings and James Jones so much. Take away Brett’s rocket-cannon arm, silly confidence, rapport with Donald, and his risky throws and I’m not so sure any Packer receiver will duplicate last years totals. Will DD continue to be fantasy worthy? Yes, but I’m not sold on him as a Top 20 receiver in ’08 and his time as a fantasy starter might be over.

WR Hines Ward, PIT – Santonio Holmes is obviously the deep threat in Pittsburgh and Nate Washington has been solid given his chances. Limas Sweed was drafted to help Heath Miller make plays in the red zone, and Rashard Mendenhall was drafted to give the Steelers more carries. None of these things are good for one of my all time favorites. He’ll still smile, he’ll still block, heck, he’ll still catch a nice number of passes – but Ward’s days as a reliable starter on fantasy teams everywhere are all but gone. He’s a nice late round pick up, but a Top 30 receiver is expecting too much.

RB Felix Jones, DAL – Once again, I think this kid is a wonderful runner with a bright future – but the guy ahead of him is just too good. Do you think Barber, who basically didn’t start a single regular season game last season, is going to give an inch now that he has the gig? No way. Marion has been a great runner everywhere he’s been, and the guy has almost never gotten the starting gig. Well, anybody who watches him can see that he’s special, those who take Jones will be watching their speedy rookie carry the ball 4-5 times a game. That’s not productive fantasy fodder.

QB Eli Manning, NYG – I’m not a big fan of Eli, never have been. He had a great finish to 2007, and looked solid in the playoffs, but he’s still mistake prone and will have to really improve to get past 25 touchdowns. Eli isn’t an accurate passer and he lets his emotions get the best of him. He makes a lot of mistakes, and just because they happened to float into his receiver’s hands in the Super Bowl doesn’t mean you should expect the same during this coming season. Let someone else overpay for this Super Bowl MVP and just feel good about watching him be mediocre all season long.

RB Justin Fargas, OAK – There are a lot of people that think McFadden won’t be much more than a Reggie Bush type and that should allow Justin to produce like Deuce did in Reggie’s rookie year. Slow down. First of all, just because McFadden’s really fast doesn’t mean he runs like Reggie. D-Mac runs like a running back. He attacks the hole, he can break tackles, and he never hesitates. Fargas just got paid, sure, and McFadden won’t be a 25 carry guy, but Justin can’t be a starting option with 10-15 carries a game, and I don’t see many more touches coming his way. Not only that, but these are still the Raiders we’re talking about here.

WR Donte Stallworth, CLE – He’s had nice games, even years with respectable numbers, but this guy isn’t blowing up in Cleveland so stop licking the windows on the short bus. Watch some other clown pick him as a starter and if you really want him on your team, just pick him up when he gets dropped after the first couple weeks. Derek Anderson isn’t a guy that’s coming off his top 2 targets all that often, especially when Edwards and Winslow catch everything thrown their way. Stallworth won’t be startable in 70% of your games this year – is that worth a pick?

RB Ahman Green, HOU – I thought Green could do the trick in Houston for a couple years. He seemed like a nice fit for that Bronco rushing attack that Houston also partakes in, but I forgot about his knees. Green has what? Two good and relatively healthy seasons as a fantasy starter? He’s old – the Texans running game is more of a pound it out attack than it should be, and that is a bad combination. I see more of the same from Ahman in 2008.

Deuce McAllister, NO – I had him on this list before he went back in to get another MRI on his still swollen knee. Regardless of how that test turns out, I wouldn’t rely on Deuce all that much. A late flier, sure, but I can’t see Deuce being a producer in New Orleans – he’s got 3 or 4 bad knees now, and that ain’t even good for an ant.

WR Javon Walker, OAK – I don’t buy Walker coming into Oakland and producing like he did during his big season in Green Bay. Sure, this Russell kid can surely chuck a pigskin, but Walker is an injury waiting to happen, he’s coming into the pre-season less than 100%, and the Raiders just don’t do much on offense in the first place. On another team, sure, but please don’t pick Javon as a starter on your squad; he’s no longer more than a sleeper.

WR Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, SF – I think Bruce and Johnson will both get picked higher than they deserve because Mike Martz is the new OC in San Fran. Please don’t be the guy that makes that mistake. Martz put up big numbers in St. Louis with a young Ike Bruce, Tory Holt, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, and others – and he did it in Detroit with an accurate passer in Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, and a couple of other speedsters – but this is a whole different game in the Bay. There is no quarterback to toss the ball around like that, and any signal caller that drops back 30 times a game in San Francisco just isn’t going to last past week 2 anyway, that offensive line would scare Batman. I am pretty sure that jump-starting this offense needs more than an old offensive guru that has a knack for getting his quarterbacks annihilated.

Browns Not Named Braylon Edwards – This could be stepping over my boundaries here, because everything looks peachy for the Browns offense heading into the season – but I seem to remember everyone’s love affair with the Saints last season – and how did that work out? Sure, the numbers didn’t look all that horrendous at season’s end (Brees, Colston, Bush – they all had decent years) but that horrendous start put most fantasy owners in a hole they never got out of. I’m not saying the Browns will choke on a bone in 2008, but buyer beware – it will stun me if Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson, and the rest of the Browns offense performs up to expectations in ’08. Don’t go gung-ho for a Browns team that produced at a high level for just one season.

These guys aren’t the plague, but they aren’t worth the pick you’ll have to give up to get them either. Dance another jig, use a different drummer, eat an entire cheese log, I don’t care what you do, just don’t pick a gaggle of these guys – you’ll be better for it.

Bryan Weimer, AKA—Lucky Lester—is the owner of LuckyLester.com, a sports site devoted to everything football from NFL picks and team previews to the hard facts and your fantasy reality.