The predictions mentioned earlier, especially the curve fit for draft pick value, assume that everyone who takes a player takes the best available person with each pick. That will not happen unless everyone has the same draft prioritized draft sheet. Since that will never happen, let's look at some of the variations that tend to occur from the predictions.

First off, some definitions of how I assessed the picks made in last year's draft:

• Steal = picked more than two rounds below final ranking
  
• Good = picked within one round of final ranking
  
• Early = picked between one and three rounds above final ranking
  
• Bust = picked more than three rounds above final ranking
  

Overall Analysis of Picks
The first thing immediately apparent when looking at the breakdown of pick types by round (see figure below) is that there were a LOT of busts. In fact, outside of three rounds (1, 11, 12) every round had more busts than any other type of pick. Yikes! How did anyone actually even score in this league? Are they all a bunch of freaking idiots?

To be fair, I must rise to the defense of my league. Over 46% of the draft picks were of Good or Steal level excellence. That's not too bad, especially considering how many big name players went belly-up last year. However - fully 47% of the picks in last year's draft were Busts. The good news is that's the lowest percentage of Busts in the eleven year history of the league. The bad news is that it could have (should have!) been better.

Obviously, high draft picks that turn out to be busts really hurt. These were the guys counted on as starters, and when they bomb it really leaves a hole in a roster. Conversely, busts in the later rounds don't really hurt at all. At that point, you're looking to add depth only; maybe you're taking some fliers on the off chance that you'll get lucky. The high number of busts in the final round is expected, as that's the proper time to be making those serious sleeper picks. But when it comes down to it, there's almost no way to avoid at least some busts every year. People get hurt, especially QBs.

Let's look at the fourth round. Seven of the picks in that round were busts. Not good. By looking back up at the table for the distribution of positions taken in each round, we can see that the fourth round was where there was a decided emphasis on WRs after everyone salted away their starting RBs (in fact, 75% of the picks were WRs). Jeremy Shockey being taken in that round as the 17th receiver was a bad pick. In a league that requires playing a tight end this might have been a good pick, but in this league, where WR and TE are equivalent, this was much too early. Why? Well, only two TEs ended up ranking in the top 20 for receivers (Tony Gonzalez at #12, and Shannon Sharp at #20) and the next closest TE was #37. This was a flier pick, made much too early, especially since it was a rookie. I'm not going to name any names, but the offending owner's initials are Fungspo, and they bought into the New York City hype machine. The safer pick would have been to take any one of a number of WR picks (Chad Johnson, for one, was still available at that point) and wait to take a TE until later (or take an established TE like Gonzalez).

Another point of interest is the Good picks and their locations. There were high numbers in the first two rounds, and then very low numbers throughout the rest of the draft. This makes sense, as in the first couple of rounds most of the studs are being picked, and for the most part they're easy to predict. Being able to make a good pick later in the draft really requires a lot of work (and, admittedly, some luck).

There were very few Early picks (only seven), and they were scattered evenly throughout the draft. What that means is that when people missed on a pick, they tended to miss big (as evidenced by the number of Busts).

As expected, the number of steals went up as the draft progressed, peaking with the next-to-last round of the draft. Most of the owners did their due diligence and had identified high value picks later in the draft.

The most important item to take away from this discussion is that early round Busts can kill your draft. There are two ways to avoid this for the first half of the draft: be conservative and avoid taking fliers, and draft the best available players. Wait until the second half of the draft to take chances on sleepers, rookies, and the can't-miss media darlings.

Fine. Right. Easier said than done. Yep, I hear what you're all saying. Let's take a look at specific examples of the different pick types to get a better idea how to do this.

Top Twelve Steals of 2003
The table below lists the best steals from last year's draft, as indicated by the difference between where they were picked and where they ended up ranking in the VPR assessment of player value. One observation of note is that all of these highly rated steals occurred at the end of the draft (round 9 and later).

But how to predict guys breaking out like this? That's not too easy to do. Certain things to look for include: playing in the final year of a contract (playing for $$), WRs in their second to fourth year with a team who have steadily increased their stats but not yet exploded, backups for fragile starters, and situational players who are favorites of their coach. Of course, there's also a great deal of luck involved in snagging the steals in the draft. But there are things for which to look.

Top Ten Busts of 2003
As you can see in the table here, the worst busts of 2003 where predominately QBs. For the most part, presence on this list was predicated on a player either getting hurt badly enough to miss most of the season or sucking enough so that they lost their starting position to someone else who didn't suck. How many of the QBs on this list were hurt last year? They're certainly fragile, aren't they?

20/20 Hindsight Picks
There's one final class of picks that I haven't addressed yet: those players who weren't drafted at all, but based on their performance throughout the year, probably should have been. Should any of them really been drafted, or is this just hyperbole? Let's look.

Let's get the out-of-left-field players out of the way right away. There's no way anyone could have known that Anquan Boldin, Rudi Johnson, and Domanick Davis would emerge from the depths of the rosters to enjoy the success they had. How about the other RB on the list: Brian Westbrook? Yeah, he probably should have been drafted, especially considering the number of rookie RBs that were drafted instead of him. Shannon Sharpe? His return to Denver obviously reinvigorated him, and knowing his history with Shanahan, he should have definitely been drafted. The two kickers? Eh, who can ever tell with kickers? It's all pretty much a crap-shoot. That leaves the five WRs. Steve Smith and Javon Walker most definitely should have been drafted, as they personified the definition of sleepers. Justin McCareins? Nope - there was no real indication that he'd make the leap last year. Marcus Robinson and Bobby Engram? They pretty much emerged from several years of obscurity and therefore couldn't have been predicted to succeed.

So that means that four of the surprises from last year should have been drafted. If the guys in the league had done their homework a little more diligently, they would have been able to snap up these players at the draft instead of having to compete for the regular season addition.

Wrapping This Up...
So, what does this all mean? First off, if you lasted all the way to this summary, you're a true fantasy football freak. Welcome to the club!

There really is a method to the madness; it works if you know what you're doing. Sure, you can rely on luck, but the odds are that you're going to come out of the season poorer than you went into it.

So, if you have indeed read all of the preceding analysis, perhaps you've already made the intuitive jump to what I'm going to say here. For the rest of the class, let me be explicitly clear: the most important part of the season is the draft. Therefore, it is something for which you must prepare thoroughly. Sure, you might be able to recover from a poor draft through a series of roster moves throughout the season, but more often than not if you mess up your draft, you've messed up your season. I'll be even more explicit:

• If you draft well and don't fall asleep at the switch during the season, you're going to do well.
  
• Even if you draft well but then don't pay attention, you're not going to do well at all.
  
• If you don't draft well, you still have an outside chance at success during the season, but you're going to have to churn your roster like crazy to have any shot.
  

So let's recap the take-home points:

• Minimize the number of bust picks you make, especially early.
  
• Be conservative as long as you possibly can, only taking flier picks in the late rounds of the draft.
  
• Let the other guys make the risky picks.
  
• Don't get suckered into runs on a particular position: always draft for value.
  
• Wait as long as possible to draft a QB, preferably until halfway through the draft.
  
• (Bonus corollary: Don't draft rookie QBs.)
  
• Take your PK in the last two rounds, depending upon availability.
  
• Avoid players ripe for a fall.
  
• Do your homework to find those sleepers ready to explode.
  
• If you've got a decision to make between loading up on WRs/TEs or RBs late in the draft, take WRs. More of them score points.
  
• Develop your own method for assessing the relative worth of players and use that to project how well you think each player is going to do this year. Then, use that list to draft players according to their relative value to other players in the draft.
  

Good luck!