With about half of the teams in the NFL having some sort of RBBC
in place, it can be difficult for fantasy owners to find the running
back to own on any given team. Here is a breakdown of the most popular
RBBCs, their splits from last season, and a look into the future.
| Dallas - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Felix Jones |
185 |
43% |
800 |
45% |
4.3 |
48 |
450 |
| Tashard Choice |
66 |
15% |
243 |
14% |
3.7 |
17 |
109 |
|
2011 Outlook: With a healthy Tony
Romo, the Cowboys’ passing game should stretch the field enough
for Felix Jones to excel this year. Jones accounted for 43 percent
of the teams rushing attempts while Barber was around 15 percent;
but with Marion now running the rock in Chicago, Jones takes over
as the Cowboys’ featured back and will likely rush the ball
more than 65 percent of the time. Add 50 or more receptions to that
and he becomes a great value in PPR leagues and a solid, low-end
RB2 in standard leagues. Tashard Choice is a pure backup and likely
to maintain his workload from last season, or even see his carries
reduced later in the season at the hands of rookie DeMarco Murray.
| Tampa Bay - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| LeGarrette Blount |
201 |
47% |
1007 |
50% |
5.0 |
5 |
14 |
| Earnest Graham |
20 |
5% |
99 |
5% |
5.0 |
16 |
130 |
|
2011 Outlook: The cornerstone of this
offense is, without a doubt, LeGarrette Blount. The Bucs did not
re-sign Cadillac Williams or pursue any other free-agent running
backs in the offseason. Conclusion: Tampa Bay plans to use Blount
as a workhorse to move the ball up and down the field, making this
a non-committee situation. Earnest Graham is not a viable handcuff
considering that if Blount misses time, Graham and Kregg Lumpkin
should see an even split in carries.
Quarterback Josh Freeman has shown that he’s able to stretch
the field, meaning Blount will see fewer bodies in the box. Blount
should also be able to take advantage of Freeman’s mobility
and the Bucs’ tendencies to run misdirection plays. If he
can stay out of trouble off the field and keep himself injury-free,
his name could quickly more to the top of fantasy charts this year.
However, due to his struggles as a receiver out of the backfield
(5 receptions in 2010), his value in PPR leagues decreases greatly.
In fact, Graham has replaced Blount on third downs through the preseason
so far.
| N.Y. Jets - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Shonn Greene |
185 |
35% |
766 |
32% |
4.1 |
16 |
120 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson |
219 |
41% |
914 |
39% |
4.2 |
52 |
368 |
|
2011 Outlook: With Tomlinson another
year older, Shonn Greene should receive a heavier workload, especially
near the goal line—and head coach Rex Ryan agrees. Ryan stated
earlier this preseason that Greene is ready to be the “bell-cow”
and will be the Jets’ primary ball carrier in 2011, edging
out L.T.’s carries by 20 percent or more. Tomlinson is on
record as saying he’s comfortable assuming a third-down role,
which makes Greene a good bet to receive at least 60 percent of
the carries and be a solid fantasy RB2 with RB1 upside. L.T. will
see a lot of work on third-downs and is still a good pick in PPR
leagues because of his ability to effectively run screens, but he
loses value in standard formats as Greene sets up to be the workhorse.
| Carolina - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Jonathan Stewart |
178 |
42% |
770 |
42% |
4.3 |
8 |
103 |
| DeAngelo Williams |
87 |
20% |
361 |
20% |
4.1 |
11 |
61 |
|
2011 Outlook: With another rookie
quarterback, no passing game to speak of, and no change in the offensive
scheme, don’t look for much improvement from the running backs
in Carolina this year. The final totals in carries should be close,
as will the receptions for each back. Carolina will be playing from
behind most of the season, so neither running back is worthy of
RB1 status. If you must own a Panther, however, Williams is your
man for no other reason than he’s the one who got paid. He
signed a five-year, $43-million deal that includes $21 million in
guaranteed money. Carolina did not bring him back at that price
to have him support Jonathan Stewart. Stay as far away from the
backfield in Carolina as you can, as their draft value isn’t
worth the reward or injury risk they both come with.
| Oakland - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Darren McFadden |
223 |
44% |
1157 |
46% |
5.2 |
47 |
507 |
| Michael Bush |
158 |
31% |
655 |
26% |
4.1 |
18 |
194 |
|
2011 Outlook: Hue Jackson has found
the right mix between his two running backs. Darren McFadden put
up solid fantasy points last year and should be able to reproduce
those numbers, or perhaps even eclipse them if he can dodge the
injury bug. He’s back to practice after a broken orbital bone
and isn’t showing any ill effects. You can expect 18 or more
carries and three to four receptions each game for the Raiders’
lead runner. If McFadden remains healthy, Bush is clearly a second
option in the Raiders backfield, but he’s a valuable handcuff
and a late-round consideration in your fantasy draft. Look for a
60/40 split in favor of McFadden this year.
| N.Y. Giants - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Ahmad Bradshaw |
276 |
58% |
1235 |
56% |
4.5 |
47 |
314 |
| Brandon Jacobs |
147 |
31% |
823 |
37% |
5.6 |
7 |
59 |
|
2011 Outlook: With a weakened receiving
corps and a defensive secondary ravaged by injury, it looks like
the Giants will be playing catch-up a lot this year. Bradshaw should
put up great numbers in the reception column, making him very attractive
in PPR leagues, but don’t look for a repeat performance in
yardage. This is not the same Giants’ team that he was running
for last year, and if the preseason is any indication, the Giants
will reward Brandon Jacobs and his new team-first attitude with
a bigger workload. Staying healthy will be a concern for both backs,
but look for the ratio of carries to come back in Jacobs’
favor to a 55/45 split. This does not bode well for Bradshaw, who
might be overvalued at his current ADP of 3.06.
| Kansas City - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Jamaal Charles |
230 |
41% |
1467 |
56% |
6.4 |
45 |
468 |
| Thomas Jones |
245 |
44% |
896 |
34% |
3.7 |
14 |
122 |
|
2011 Outlook: This is a RBBC on the
outside but a featured-back offense on the inside. It’s ridiculous
how productive Charles was last season (the #4 fantasy RB) given
his meager 275 touches. In both PPR and standard leagues he is a
clear RB1, even as he gets just 40 percent of the teams’ carries.
You might see head coach Todd Haley shift a few touches away from
Thomas Jones, but not as many as fantasy owners would like. A 55/45
split in Charles’s favor seems reasonable, as Haley has no
plans to move Jones from the top spot on the depth chart. Charles’s
value really takes a leap in the passing game, as he’s a prime
target for 50 or more receptions this year. Le’Ron McClain
is in the mix as well, but his role is clearly defined as a fullback
as long as the halfbacks remain healthy.
| Buffalo - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Fred Jackson |
222 |
55% |
927 |
54% |
4.2 |
31 |
215 |
| C.J. Spiller |
74 |
18% |
283 |
16% |
3.8 |
24 |
157 |
|
2011 Outlook: Now that Marshawn Lynch
is out of Buffalo, there are more carries to go around for Fred
Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Last year Jackson accounted for over half
of the teams’ rushing attempts (55%) and total rushing yards
(54%). There have been some rumblings lately that C.J. Spiller could
be in line for a starting spot, but he failed to seize his opportunity
during the Bills’ second preseason game. Look for Jackson
to have a steady year with close to 1,000 yards if the Bills can
spread the offense like they did during the middle of last season,
where Jackson fared the best. Spiller will still see his workload
increased, but a 55/45 split of carries in Jackson’s favor
is likely on tap for 2011.
| Denver - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Knowshon
Moreno |
182 |
46% |
779 |
50% |
4.3 |
37 |
372 |
| Lance Ball |
41 |
10% |
158 |
10% |
3.9 |
14 |
55 |
|
2011 Outlook: John Fox is bringing
his run-first offense to Denver, which means Knowshon Moreno and
Willis McGahee are in for a full season of work. Moreno is the clear-cut
starter, but you can count on McGahee being a TD thief, which puts
a damper on Moreno’s value. As practices and preseason has
shown, look for a 60/40 split with the goal-line and short-yardage
work leaning toward McGahee. Neither back is a viable option for
a RB2 spot in competitive leagues. Use McGahee for a bye-week fill-in
or an RB3 in deep leagues.
| Miami - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Ronnie Brown |
200 |
51% |
734 |
49% |
3.6 |
33 |
242 |
| Ricky Williams |
159 |
40% |
673 |
45% |
4.2 |
19 |
141 |
|
2011 Outlook: Head coach Tony Sparano
plans on using rookie Daniel Thomas from Kansas State as the premier
back this year… or does he? Sparano has recently made it known
that Reggie Bush will get the chance to start, and the team has
signed a washed-up Larry Johnson for depth. I don’t get it.
Could it be that Sparano is not that thrilled with Thomas’s
play in camp? Time will tell, but for now you have to give the nod
to Bush as the back to own in this committee. Having said that,
it’s difficult to see the rookie not playing a key role in
this offense given Bush’s injury history. A 55/45 split in
Bush’s favor would be a prudent move by Sparano.
| New Orleans - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Pierre Thomas |
83 |
22% |
269 |
18% |
3.2 |
29 |
201 |
| Chris Ivory |
137 |
45% |
716 |
55% |
5.5 |
1 |
17 |
|
2011 Outlook: The Saints have used
a number of backs over the last few years, but it’s hard to
tell if that was by philosophy or out of necessity. The Saints’
backs have been so injury-prone, head coach Sean Peyton hasn’t
had much of choice but to use a committee. As is usually the case,
the rookie running back gets all the pub in the preseason, and most
rankings are projecting Mark Ingram to be the back to own. However,
Pierre Thomas isn’t going away, so don’t be surprised
if both Thomas and Ingram see an even number of carries as head
Coach Sean Payton alluded to after their second preseason game.
Furthermore, with Darren Sproles lurking around on third downs,
there is a shortage of carries for all three backs. Ingram has highest
ceiling, but to value either back at more than an RB3 is not using
your fantasy smarts.
| San Diego - 2010 |
| Player |
Rush Att |
% of
Tm Atts |
Rush Yds |
% of
Tm Rush Yds |
Yds/Carry |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
| Ryan Mathews |
158 |
35% |
678 |
37% |
4.3 |
22 |
145 |
| Mike Tolbert |
182 |
40% |
735 |
41% |
4.0 |
25 |
216 |
|
2011 Outlook: Ryan Mathews is the
featured back in San Diego, but Norv Turner and the Chargers have
changed their tune over the past year and are convinced that a committee
approach is more suited to their style. “That position is
too hammered for one guy,” running backs coach Ollie Wilson
said. “L.T. going 400 snaps … [is a] thing of the past,
so we prepare both guys in that situation. People get caught up
with who’s the first guy out on the field. We don’t
have starters. We got guys that come in and play.” San Diego’s
head coach Norv Turner suggested that as long as Mathews feels good
and is healthy, he will be the go-to guy for the Chargers. Tolbert,
however is still in the picture and will probably get the bulk of
short-yardage downs and goal-line carries. I predict a swap of percentages
between the two this year (55 percent for Mathews, 45 percent for
Tolbert) as long as Mathews can stay healthy. |
