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Weekly Insights: Wk 16
12/21/06

If you asked Santa for a fantasy football league championship, this is the week you’ll find out if you’ve been naughty or nice this year.

Week 16 is the most popular week of the fantasy season for league championships. Forget the matchups and start your studs. Here are some non-studs that owners should consider starting and sitting this week.

Start ’em

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville: Yeah, yeah, he’s not an every-down running back. That doesn’t matter when he’s scored a touchdown in the last six games. He’s a must start, period. His value also gets a boost with Fred Taylor hobbled by a hamstring injury. If Taylor is unable to play or is limited, Jones-Drew will get a ton of touches this week against New England.

Others: Jeff Garcia, QB, Philadelphia; Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco; Ladell Betts, RB, Washington; Arizona; Marion Barber, RB, Dallas; Plaxico Burress, WR, N.Y. Giants; Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay; Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia; Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland.

Sleepers: Ron Dayne, RB, Houston; Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago; Jerramy Stevens, TE, Seattle

Bench’em

Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore: The Raven is coming off a 100-yard game and has scored in four of the last five games. Sounds like a stud, right? Wrong. If you have a solid running back on your bench, sit Lewis. He faces Pittsburgh’s fifth-ranked rushing defense on the road. In Lewis’ last three games in Pittsburgh he’s gained 61, 26 and 69 rushing yards. In Week 12, the Steelers held Lewis to 66 yards and a touchdown. Lewis may get a TD, but don’t expect many yards.

Others: Tom Brady, QB, New England; Steve McNair, QB, Baltimore; David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville; Vince Young, QB, Tennessee; Trent Green, QB, Kansas City; Tatum Bell, RB, Denver; Corey Dillon, RB, New England; Andre Johnson, WR, Houston; Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh

Hot Read

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: If you own Tomlinson, there’s a good chance you’re in your league championship game this week. If you don’t own him, your opponent probably does. With an NFL-record 31 touchdowns, he single-handedly has more TDs than most entire fantasy teams do. He’s undoubtedly the best fantasy stud ever.

Broken Play(er)

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: With quarterback Jake Delhomme out with a thumb injury the last two weeks, Smith’s numbers have taken a hit. Smith has just 123 yards and no touchdowns with backup Chris Weinke under center. With the fantasy playoffs under way, this is horrible timing for Smith’s owners. If you own Smith and have a solid receiver on your bench, you may want to swallow a few times and consider benching the Panther if Delhomme doesn’t play this week at Atlanta.

Off The Bench

Winslow, TE, Browns: The Brown has been sat by many of his owners recently during his cold streak in which he has failed to score in the last seven games and surpass 61 yards in the last five contests. It’s time to re-insert him into your starting lineup. Cleveland takes on Tampa Bay and its 23rd-ranked passing defense that has allowed a league-high 25 touchdowns, including eight to tight ends, which is tied for the league high.

Safe Bet

Green, QB, Kansas City: The Chief will throw for fewer than 200 yards against Oakland’s top-ranked pass defense. The Raiders may be a favorite to get the No. 1 overall draft pick, but their pass defense has held opponents to an average of 151.6 yards per game. Oakland has held quarterbacks to fewer than 200 yards in 10 of 15 games this season, including holding Green to 102 yards in Week 11.

Extra Point

Be aware of which teams have locked in their spots in the playoffs in the next two weeks, because with nothing to play for, coaches of those teams often rest their star players and many of their starters. Chicago is the only team going into Week 16 that is locked into their playoff spot. The Bears have wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, so if you own any starter Bears, you should sit them because they may not play the entire game or at all.