8/22/06
The third year is the charm for wide receivers.
Fantasy football veterans know the magical breakout year for wide
receivers often is their third year.
The last two years have been slim on third-year receivers seeing
big jumps in their numbers. St. Louis’ Kevin Curtis and San
Francisco’s Brandon Lloyd (before Alex Smith took over as
the starting quarterback) were last season’s editions. In
2004, it was Javon Walker and Ashley Lelie.
The 2003 season was huge for third-year receivers having breakout
years. Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and
Chris Chambers became stars that season.
Other players that made significant strides in their third year
include Terrell Owens, Rod Smith, Eric Moulds and Muhsin Muhammad.
Besides Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, who had an elite season
(103 receptions, 1,409 yards, 10 TDs) during his second season last
year, here are this year’s third-year receivers that have
the best chance to have breakout years:
Roy Williams, Detroit: Quarterback
Joey Harrington is out, and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is
in. That could prove to be the formula for Williams to be this year’s
top breakout performer among third-year receivers.
Lee Evans, Buffalo: After struggling
in the first half last season, the speedy Evans rebounded for 30
receptions, 509 yards and six touchdowns in the second half. With
Moulds departed to Houston, Evans takes over as the Bills’
No. 1 receiver.
Ernest Wilford, Jacksonville:
With Jimmy Smith retired, Wilford will have the chance to step up
as the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver. His great leaping ability
led to seven touchdowns with Smith still in Jacksonville last year,
so he may get even more opportunities to score this season.
Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay: After
having a fantastic rookie season, Clayton struggled through an injury-filled
season last year. He may not put up the numbers he did during his
rookie season, but if he can stay healthy, he should improve drastically
on last year’s nightmare season.
Samie Parker, Kansas City: The
small, but speedy Chief came on strong down the stretch last season.
In a six-game stretch from Week 11 to 16, he recorded 26 receptions,
362 yards and two touchdowns.
Michael Jenkins, Atlanta: In the
last two weeks of the season last year, the Falcons’ No. 1
receiver showed some glimpses of being a weapon for quarterback
Michael Vick against two of the league’s top defenses. He
caught four passes for 54 yards and a TD against Tampa Bay before
grabbing five passes for 60 yards against Carolina the following
week.
Breakthrough Player
Andre Johnson, Houston: For
the first time in his four-year career, Johnson will have a top-notch
receiver, Moulds, lining up with him. This will help take double-teams
off Johnson and give him room to burn defenders with his speed
and leaping ability.
Underrated
Chris Chambers, Miami: Many
preseason rankings have Chambers listed outside the top 10. He
should be considered among the elite receivers. Only three receivers
(Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt) have more touchdowns
than Chambers in the last three years. The former University of
Wisconsin player was the best receiver in the second half last
season, collecting 52 receptions, 701 yards and eight touchdowns
in his last eight games. With quarterback Daunte Culpepper throwing
bombs to Chambers, his potential is scary.
Sleeper
Derrick Mason, Baltimore: After
catching just three touchdowns last season, Mason seems to be
forgotten when top receivers are mentioned. With Mason being reunited
with quarterback Steve McNair, expect him to rebound and approach
the seven touchdowns he averaged while catching passes from McNair
during their last five years together in Tennessee.
Bust
Santana Moss, Washington: Moss’
red-hot start last year makes his final numbers deceiving. Moss
was one of the best receivers in his first six games, recording
four 100-yard games. But, in his final 10 games, he had just one
100-yard effort. With Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El aboard as free-agent
receiver signings, Moss won’t get as many looks as he got
last season when he was the Redskins’ only threat at receiver.
Also, he doesn’t have an elite quarterback throwing to him,
which could often limit his production.
Rankings
1. Steve Smith
2. Marvin Harrison
3. Torry Holt
4. Chad Johnson
5. Chris Chambers
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Terrell Owens
8. Randy Moss
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Donald Driver
12. Hines Ward
13. Plaxico Burress
14. Roy Williams
15. Darrell Jackson
16. Andre Johnson
17. Derrick Mason
18. Santana Moss
19. Javon Walker
20. Joey Galloway
21. Lee Evans
22. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
23. Joe Horn
24. Deion Branch
25. Matt Jones
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