8/24/06
Heading into fantasy football drafts, there are two tight ends most
often on fantasy owners’ minds. One is fantasy stud Antonio
Gates of San Diego. The other is rookie Vernon Davis of San Francisco.
Owners have one common question regarding the two tight ends: How
early should they be drafted?
Let’s start with Gates. The Charger is the clear No. 1 fantasy
tight end. He recorded 89 receptions, 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns
last season. Gates gives his fantasy owners a weekly edge in head-to-head
leagues. He scored in eight games, had four 100-yard games and one
three-TD game. Gates will be taken in the third round in most 12-team
leagues. However, should he be taken that early?
Drafting Gates that early forces his owner to play catch up in the
next few rounds. While others are drafting solid running backs and
elite quarterbacks and wide receivers in the third round and saving
their tight end pick for the middle rounds, the owner of Gates will
be a step behind in drafting quality players at those positions
until the other owners start taking tight ends.
Owners only should consider drafting Gates in the third round if
they drafted two running backs in the first two rounds. An owner
that doesn’t take a running back in the first two rounds and
grabs Gates in Round 3 will be forced to draft a starting running
back in the fourth round, which will leave the owner with a risky
No. 2 running back.
As for Davis, predicting when he will be drafted is much more difficult.
Rookies generate a lot of hype, causing them to often be drafted
much earlier than they should be. Davis is one of the most hyped
tight ends in years. He’s just the fourth tight end chosen
in the top 10 since 1980 and is tied for the highest tight end pick
(sixth) with Kellen Winslow Jr. (2004) since 1973.
The 49ers drafted Davis because he’s a freak athletically,
with speed to burn linebackers and cornerbacks.
Owners who draft Davis as a starter likely will get burned by him,
too. Expecting him to put up elite numbers as a rookie is a reach.
In the last 10 years among first-round draft picks, only one rookie
(Jeremy Shockey) has caught 40 passes and recorded 500 receiving
yards, and only one (Heath Miller) collected more than three touchdowns.
However, Shockey had veteran Kerry Collins throwing to him in 2002,
while Miller had future Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
connecting with him last season. Davis, meanwhile, has second-year
pro Alex Smith, who struggled last season and will be inconsistent
again this year.
Davis should be drafted as a backup. Owners who want to gamble and
draft him as a starter should make sure they take a quality backup
in case he performs like almost all high-profile rookie tight ends
have in recent years.
Underrated
Alge Crumpler, Atlanta: Falcons
quarterback Michael Vick has yet to develop chemistry with any
receiver, so he often leans on Crumpler. The sixth-year pro picked
up at least 50 yards in nine weeks and in two other weeks had
a touchdown, making him one of the most consistent options at
the position.
Sleeper
L.J. Smith, Philadelphia: With
the Eagles lacking an elite receiver and wide receiver Terrell
Owens gone, look for Smith’s opportunities to increase,
especially in the red zone with his speed and catching ability.
He recorded 61 catches for 682 yards and three touchdowns with
quarterback Donovan McNabb out for a large portion of the season
last year. With a healthy McNabb, Smith should have an even better
season.
Breakthrough
Chris Cooley, Washington: Offensive
coordinator Al Saunders comes to Washington from Kansas City where
he made Tony Gonzalez a huge part of the offense. As a result,
Cooley will become a bigger part of the Redskins’ offense
and should finish near the top in TDs among tight ends.
Bust
Dallas Clark, Indianapolis:
Owners draft Clark because they see potential with him being in
the high-powered Colts offense. Clark had his chance to shine
last year when Marcus Pollard left for Detroit. He responded with
just 37 catches, 488 yards and four touchdowns. He had more than
51 yards just once, giving owners essentially no points in most
weeks. Clark only should be drafted as a backup.
Rankings
1. Antonio Gates
2. Todd Heap
3. Jeremy Shockey
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Alge Crumpler
6. Chris Cooley
7. Jason Witten
8. Randy McMichael
9. L.J. Smith
10. Kellen Winslow
11. Heath Miller
12. Ben Watson
13. Ben Troupe
14. Vernon Davis
15. Dallas Clark
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