Passing Game Thoughts: Jared Goff has found quite a bit of success
this season, averaging 286.7 yards and 1.9 touchdowns on 34.7
pass attempts per game. He has struggled on the road though, which
is a major concern this weekend. The Saints have featured one
of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, allowing 269.0 passing
yards per game although the eye test would suggest they’ve
played better the last few weeks. Still, the Saints have allowed
30 passing touchdowns, while recording only 12 interceptions throughout
the 2018 season.
Robert Woods has been one of the most consistent receivers in
the NFL this season. He has scored double-digit fantasy points
in 15 of his 17 games, while averaging 5.4 receptions for 75.8
yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 8.1 targets per game. Brandin Cooks
has truly only played in 16 games, and has been another dominant
fantasy option. In those games, Cooks is averaging 5.3 receptions
for 79.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns on 7.7 targets. Josh Reynolds
is playing plenty of snaps, but he has struggled to become a reliable
fantasy option. With that being said, he certainly comes with
upside in a high-powered offense. Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee
have been splitting snaps at tight end with Everett being the
better fantasy option, but neither should truly be considered
against an elite defense against tight ends.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans has allowed one of the lowest
yards per carry (3.6) on the season. They are also allowing only
80.2 rushing yards per game in 2018. With that being said, they
have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this year. Todd Gurley has
been an elite option for the majority of the season. He returned
from injury last week, totaling 118 yards on 18 rushes. Surprisingly,
he split carries with C.J. Anderson, which could limit Gurley’s
ceiling against a dominant run defense. Anderson has seen 20+
carries in each of his last three games, averaging 140.7 yards
and 1.3 touchdowns in those games. He’s a high upside option,
but it wouldn’t be surprising if Los Angeles opts to utilize
Gurley a bit more in such an important game.
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been an elite fantasy quarterback
for quite some time. He has also been playing at an absurd level
in New Orleans this season. Through eight home games, Brees is
averaging 319.0 yards and 2.9 touchdowns on 34.8 pass attempts
per game. He also comes with some rushing upside, as Brees owns
four rushing touchdowns on the season. The Rams are only allowing
236.0 passing yards per game but have allowed 31 passing touchdowns,
while recording 18 interceptions. Brees is a player that can dominate
any defense, especially when playing at home making him an attractive
DFS option this weekend.
Through nine home games, Michael Thomas is averaging 8.9 receptions
for 110.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 10.7 targets per game. Thomas
also posted a 12 / 171 / 1 line on 16 targets in his only playoff
game this season, and he could see a similar role this weekend.
Ted Ginn Jr. has flashed upside since returning from injury, recording
eight receptions for 118 yards on 15 targets. He’s a large
part of the offense, and makes somewhat of a boom or bust option
this week. They are the only two receivers that should be considered
for New Orleans, and that’s including tight ends.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram has shown flashes throughout
the season, averaging 67.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 13.1 touches
per game. While he has flashed upside, he’s far from a safe
option for the Saints. Alvin Kamara has been the better running
back option all season and that’ll be the case again this
week. On the season, Kamara is averaging 106.1 yards and 1.1 touchdowns
on 18.4 touches (5.3 receptions) per game. Kamara is also averaging
6.8 targets per game. The Rams have struggled against the run,
allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns
making Kamara on of the best RB plays on the board this week.
Passing Game Thoughts: The Patriots are coming fresh off of a
dominant victory over the Chargers where almost their entire offense
looked to be in sync. Tom Brady, who has had stretches this year
where he appeared to be losing a step, looked every bit the part
of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in the divisional round, throwing
the ball all over the field, primarily to slot receiver Julian
Edelman and running back James White. Those two players are likely
the best two options out of the New England passing game again
this week as the Chiefs are an offense that can put up a lot of
points and the Patriots will need to keep the ball moving down
the field in short chunks in order to limit the number of possessions
that Patrick Mahomes gets.
It’s also worth considering that this game is expected
to be played in very cold conditions which often limits deep pass
attempts. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has become almost completely
an afterthought in the Patriots passing attack as he continues
to play most snaps for the team but really hasn’t been targeted
with any sort of regularity. Gronk does, however, face a Chiefs
defense that has been horrendous at defending opposing tight ends
this season. While they were able to keep Eric Ebron out of the
end zone this past week, he was still able to catch five passes
for 51 yards against this defense. Phillip Dorsett is the other
player to keep an eye on in this passing game, as he will likely
play most of the snaps out wide for the Patriots and could approach
a double-digit target share if the Patriots get involved in a
shootout or fall behind on the scoreboard.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: A 24-carry, 129-yard, three touchdown performance
by rookie Sony Michel has fantasy owners salivating as the Patriots
head to Kansas City this week to face the Chiefs. Be careful,
though, as this game could be very different than the one we saw
a week ago when the Patriots got out to a huge lead and were able
to lean heavily on their running game. That is not likely to be
the case on the road against the high-powered Chiefs, so there’s
a real case to be made that James White is the far superior play
in the New England backfield this week, especially in PPR formats.
White has been used sparingly as a runner but his contributions
in the passing game are unbelievable, including a record-breaking
15-catch performance this past week against the Chargers in a
game that wasn’t even a negative game script for the Patriots.
White is the safer option of the two, certainly, as Michel could
find himself competing with Rex Burkhead for goal line touches
as he did a week ago when Burkhead scored a second-quarter touchdown
from inside the 10 yard line.
Passing Game Thoughts: Cold weather conditions certainly contributed
to a lack of passing touchdowns in Kansas City this past week
as opposing quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck combined
for just one touchdown through the air. The game was also heavily
in favor of the Chiefs early which led to Mahomes not needing
to air the ball out deep nearly as often as he typically does,
but there’s still cause for concern that another game where
the weather is expected to be well below freezing could cause
some issues for the Kansas City passing game.
All of the Chiefs major players in the passing game still contributed
in a meaningful fashion for fantasy owners in the divisional round,
but we might not be that lucky in the conference championship.
These teams met up earlier this season in game in which both hit
the 40-point mark, with the Patriots narrowly edging out the victory.
Still, in that game there was a monsterous performance from wide
receiver Tyreek Hill who blew up for seven catches, 142 yards
and three touchdowns. The Patriots knew it was coming and they
still couldn’t stop him. That’s something that the
Patriots typically don’t let happen twice, though. If there’s
one thing this team is good at, it’s learning from their
mistakes. Tyreek Hill is still probably one of the top two fantasy
wide receivers on the board, but don’t be surprised if the
Patriots spend significant resources defending him in this contest.
That could, of course, lead to additional work for tight end
Travis Kelce and possibly even wide receiver Sammy Watkins who
finally made some contributions this past week when he caught
six passes for 62 yards against the Colts. Kelce remains the top
tight end in fantasy football and will be again this week even
against a Patriots team that held him relatively in check when
these teams matched up earlier this year. Watkins, meanwhile,
makes for an interesting Flex play and arguably the best lower-salary
wide receiver option in DFS given his expected snap and target
share.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The breakout continued this past week for
running back Damien Williams as he took 25 carries for 129 yards
and a touchdown while also adding five catches for 25 yards in
the passing game. This all-purpose skill set continues to make
Williams a much better play than even Spencer Ware, who is expected
to make his return to the lineup this week. The Chiefs coaching
staff has historically leaned toward veterans in situations like
this, but Williams has just so vastly outplayed Ware that it would
be astonishing to see them give Ware anything more than change-of-pace
duties this week against the Patriots.
Williams gets a matchup against a middle-of-the-pack Patriots
run defense that got exploited by the likes of Frank Gore and
Jaylen Samuels late in the regular season. They did hold Melvin
Gordon in check this past week, but much of that was due to the
game script which saw the Patriots get out to a large lead early,
forcing the Chargers to abandon their running game. Don’t
look for that to happen again this week, as the Chiefs offense
is too high-powered to fall behind much even against a great Patriots
offense. Williams should be heavily involved in this one no matter
the game script, which makes him one of the safer running back
options on the board, especially in DFS where his salary is substantially
lower than the Kamara and Gurley tier.
