Passing
Game Thoughts: The Kansas City offense has been one of
the league’s most surprising stories so far this season
but the lone undefeated team fell at home this past week to the
Steelers. While the Pittsburgh defense has been off-and-on over
the past couple of seasons, the truth is that they seem to have
the Kansas City offense figured out, having allowed an average
of just 14 points per game to them over their past three games
stemming back to the beginning of 2016. It’s easy to think
that other teams will quickly follow what the Steelers were able
to do schematically but not many other teams are equipped to do
so. One team that seems to have been able to figure out the Kansas
City offense as of late, however, is the Raiders, who conceded
just one passing touchdown to Alex Smith in their two games against
him in 2016. The Chiefs did win both games fairly handedly so
it’s certainly possible that Smith could’ve done more
if the pressure was on him to do so, but he simply didn’t
need to.
In 2017, Smith has been one of the league’s premiere quarterbacks,
particularly getting the ball to tight end Travis Kelce who has
caught at least four passes in all but one contest and remains
one of the elite options at his position. Wide receiver Tyreek
Hill has also caught four or more receptions in every game this
season and while he hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week
3, he’ll continue to be a high upside WR2 with a safe floor
given his impressive efficiency on the targets he’s been
getting.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt continues to make a claim
to be not only the 2017 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year but also
perhaps the Fantasy Football MVP as he compiled another nice fantasy
day this past week despite the first negative game script that
his team has seen this season. Hunt’s rushing productivity
was surprisingly low as he rushed for just 21 yards on nine attempts
against the Steelers in Week 5 but his usage in the passing game
was critical to his fantasy production as he caught five of his
six targets for 89 yards, putting him over 100 scrimmage yards
for the sixth consecutive game. He has not been below that 100-yard
milestone in any single game yet to start his career. Hunt’s
ability to make plays as both a runner and as a receiver makes
him one of the safest plays in all of fantasy football as he seemingly
will not be denied the ball no matter the numbers on the scoreboard.
This week Hunt will be on the road but he’ll get an Oakland
defense that just got run over and through to the tune of 150
scrimmage yards and two scores by Melvin Gordon. They did add
NaVorro Bowman this week but he won’t likely be fully integrated
into the defense on a short week. Either way, Hunt is once again
among the top plays in all of fantasy football.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr might not be at full strength
but he’s gutting it out and trying to keep the Raiders in
the playoff hunt. Unfortunately fantasy owners haven’t been
getting anywhere near what they’ve been hoping for out of
Carr and especially not out of wide receiver Amari Cooper who
has now failed to reach even 35 receiving yards in five straight
contests. The fall from grace for Cooper has been brutal and it’s
come time to strongly consider benching him for even top-30 options
at the position. The upside is still there but until he and Carr
start clicking, there just isn’t much to be optimistic about.
He’s seen six or fewer targets in four of his past five
games and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, making
him one of the biggest busts in all of fantasy football so far
this season.
Carr’s favorite target continues to be Michael Crabtree
who has compiled impressive fantasy numbers and did so even when
Carr was out with an injury. Crabtree has caught exactly six passes
in four of his first five games, including five total touchdown
receptions. Tight end Jared Cook remains a player to watch but
is simply among the group of many players at his position who
is essentially touchdown-dependent for fantasy production. That’s
unlikely to happen this week as he’ll face a Chiefs defense
that has not allowed a single receiving touchdown to an opposing
tight end this season and that includes games against Rob Gronkowski,
Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry and Jordan Reed. Crabtree
is unfortunately the only strong play in this offense as he’ll
be up against a Kansas City defense that has given up the second-most
fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season,
including some big games to opposing WR1’s.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Although he had his second-best rushing
day of the season, Marshawn Lynch has been a bust for fantasy
purposes as he has now failed to exceed even 12 fantasy points
in any game this season. Much of that, of course, is because he
has essentially been non-existent in the passing game which does
certainly does not help his floor as it does for many other backs.
Perhaps no other RB1 in the league is used less in the passing
game than Lynch and that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime
soon as he has still not been targeted even three times in any
game so far this season. With that being the case, Lynch is essentially
a touchdown-or-bust type of player whose upside is fairly limited
due to the overall mediocrity of the Oakland offense. The Chiefs
did get abused by Le’Veon Bell this past week but Lynch
is no Bell at this stage of his career and Kansas City has mostly
been very good against opposing running backs. No other back that
the Chiefs have played this season has gone over 90 total yards
in a game and they’ve only given up two total touchdowns
to running backs over their past five contests. There may be better
matchups ahead for Lynch, but this is not a great one and he should
really only be trusted as a Flex play or perhaps a low-end RB2
in non-PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer statistically couldn’t
have been much better than he was in Week 6 when he annihilated
the Buccaneers defense to the tune of 283 yards and three touchdowns
on 18-of-22 passing. His one real mistake ended up being an interception
but Palmer’s fantasy owners still have to be very optimistic
that he and the Arizona offense seems to have new life after the
addition of Adrian Peterson. More importantly, Larry Fitzgerald
is back into his groove of being a WR1 in PPR leagues as he’s
now pulled in double-digit receptions in two of his six games
while also catching three touchdowns in his past four contests.
Few players in the league see more targets than Fitzgerald which
makes him a very safe option in almost any matchup. Unfortunately
the rest of the receivers in this offense are extremely difficult
to predict as Jaron and John Brown, along with J.J. Nelson, have
all seen their numbers fluctuate greatly from game to game. Fantasy
owners could justify putting any of them into their lineups as
a WR3/Flex, especially in non-PPR formats, but they’re all
capable of producing zeroes in if things don’t go well.
The Rams defense has had a fairly easy schedule in regards to
opposing quarterbacks but Palmer and the Cardinals should be able
to find space to make some plays in this one, particularly if
the game becomes a bit of a shootout as many believe it could.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The haters were in full force when Adrian
Peterson signed with the Cardinals this past week but the veteran
showed that he still has something left in the gas tank when he
exploded with a monster performance in the first game with his
new team. Peterson’s 134-yard, two touchdown performance
was his best single-game fantasy day since Week 11 of the 2015
season and the 26 carries he saw gives us plenty of reason to
be optimistic about his fantasy outlook going forward this season.
In fact, Peterson’s huge day could’ve been even bigger
if not for a long run being called back due to a holding call.
If that isn’t enough to convince you to get Peterson into
your lineup this week, consider his opposition. The Rams have
given up by far the most fantasy points to opposing running backs
so far this season. Not only have they given up the most yards-from-scrimmage
to the position, but they’ve also given up the most touchdowns.
Andre Ellington (quad) should see more work in this game than
he saw a week ago but he is a risky play given the amount of snaps
Peterson is playing. Still, in a PPR, you could do worse than
Ellington as a Flex play. Ellington is battling injury so check
inactive reports Sunday to make sure he’s on the field.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff got off to a strong start to
the season but he’s since cooled off a bit over the past
two weeks, throwing for just 410 yards and one total touchdown
over that span with two interceptions. Some of that has been due
to the effectiveness of the Rams running game but it’s also
true that no Rams receiver has been able to create a consistent
connection with Goff. The best option at the moment seems to be
Robert Woods who hasn’t seen such a dramatic fluctuation
from week to week, but he has also not even scored a touchdown
yet this season. Cardinals shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson
is dealing with a quad injury that did prevent him from covering
Mike Evans as often as the team would’ve liked him to, but
with Peterson likely to be lined up on Sammy Watkins for much
of the afternoon, look for Woods and possibly slot receiver Cooper
Kupp to do some damage in this matchup against the Cardinals.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: A strong candidate for NFL Comeback Player
of the Year, Todd Gurley continues to produce huge numbers in
this newly revitalized Los Angeles offense. He’s gone over
95 yards from scrimmage in all but one contest this season and
he’s touching the ball as much as any back in the league,
both as a runner and as a pass-catcher. While the Cardinals have
done a good job of preventing rushing yardage this season, this
still looks like a game where Gurley could produce decent enough
numbers to be a solid RB1 for fantasy purposes. As long as he’s
touching the ball as much as he is, Gurley gives fantasy owners
one of the highest point floors of any back in the league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys have faced an onslaught of some
of the best secondaries in the league to start the season and
this is one of the best matchups that Dak Prescott has seen all
season. The 49ers have given up 22 or more fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks in four straight contests, and that includes opponents
like Jacoby Brissett, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Carson Palmer
– not exactly the who’s who of fantasy superstars.
Dez Bryant has been decent so far this season but this seems like
the kind of matchup that he could truly exploit. The 49ers have
already given up four 100-yard days to opposing wide receivers
and Bryant is still looking for his first. Either way, he’s
one of the stronger bets to get into the end zone as he is consistently
one of the most-targeted players in the league when his team gets
into the red zone. Tight end Jason Witten has been wildly inconsistent
in terms of production so far this season but his value in PPR
formats is in the fact that the Cowboys consistently find ways
to get him the ball despite his physical limitations at this point
in his career. He’s a low-upside, high-floor PPR option
at a tight end position that is void of many other players like
that. The other receivers in this offense, namely Cole Beasley,
Terrance Williams and Brice Butler, are not being targeted enough
to be trustworthy assets even in decent matchups like this one.
Particularly Beasley is not a great option in this game as the
49ers have actually done a fairly good job of containing opposing
slot receivers so far this season.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Thanks to lawyers and the legal process,
Ezekiel Elliott has escaped his suspension yet again and will
be active in Week 7. The matchup looks great on paper and Zeke
is definitely a RB1 but it’s worth noting the Cowboys offensive
line has actually been quite bad at run blocking this season.
After being one of the best units in the league over the past
few seasons, the Cowboys offensive line is no longer opening up
holes that a semi-truck could roll through. That alone could limit
the upside of Zeke a bit. Still, this is a great spot for the
Cowboys running attack against a 49ers defense that has given
up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running
backs so far this season and is now without perhaps its best run
defender, NaVorro Bowman, who was released by the team this past
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Now 0-6, the 49ers have seemingly decided
to give up on trying to compete this season and instead begin
analyzing their future by giving young players a chance to get
on the field. That cannot be more evident than the team’s
decision to move on from veteran Brian Hoyer and to rookie C.J.
Beathard. Beathard got his first bit of playing time this past
week, replacing Hoyer in the 49ers’ loss to the Redskins.
Beathard showed some signs of life as he threw for 245 yards and
a touchdown, but he did also throw an interception and he only
completed 52.8 percent of his passes. Still, he did what fantasy
owners can only hope for by targeting the team’s best receiver,
Pierre Garcon, a good bit; before throwing a late-game touchdown
pass to Aldrick Robinson. The Cowboys defense is certainly beatable
and Garcon is worth a spot in most lineups but Beathard is probably
not far enough along that fantasy owners should be relying on
him in their lineups this week.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: After a silly and hard-headed benching
of Carlos Hyde in Week 5, Kyle Shanahan seemingly came back to
his senses in Week 6 as he got the ball in Hyde’s hands
18 times in the 49ers’ close loss to the Redskins this past
week. While he wasn’t particularly effective with his rushing
attempts, averaging just 2.2 yards per carry on the day, Hyde
was able to salvage his fantasy day by getting into the end zone
twice and catching five passes for 47 yards. Hyde’s usage
in the passing game has been one of the big changes that we’ve
seen in the Shanahan era and it certainly helps boost his floor
in PPR formats. The 49ers aren’t likely to win many games
this season so being able to catch passes could be a hugely valuable
asset for fantasy purposes going forward. Hyde will now face a
Cowboys defense that has given up a 100-yard rusher in three of
their first five games this season – the only opponents
that didn’t have a 100-yard rusher against the Cowboys were
the Giants in Week 1 and the Cardinals without David Johnson and
prior to Adrian Peterson. Hyde is a great fantasy option at home
this week as he’ll likely be the focal point of the San
Francisco offense in this contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: His final fantasy numbers weren’t
all that bad because he was able to attempt 50 passes but make
no mistake about it – Trevor Siemian was terrible on Sunday
night in the Broncos’ surprising blowout home loss to the
Giants. While it’s true that the New York secondary is quite
talented, that alone can’t excuse what was perhaps the worst
start of Siemian’s career. To make matters worse, Siemian
will now be without wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the near
future as the receiver recovers from injury, leaving only Demaryius
Thomas as the lone viable fantasy option in this Denver passing
game. The positive thing for Thomas owners is that, with Sanders
out, Thomas’ targets should hypothetically go up. Of course,
the Chargers defense will know that and could key in on taking
Thomas away in this game, but they’re not really equipped
to do that given all the injuries they’ve suffered.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: In a week of some tremendous performances,
few players disappointed more than C.J. Anderson in Week 6 who
was seemingly set to have a monster game against a bad New York
run defense. Anderson rushed for just 17 yards on nine carries
while catching zero passes and failing to score. The negative
game script and defensive game-planning certainly didn’t
help Anderson’s case, but that performance is an example
of what’s possible out of a player like Anderson who doesn’t
necessarily have the physical talent to make big plays with his
own raw skills. This week, though, he’ll get a Los Angeles
defense that has given up a league-most 809 rushing yards to opposing
running backs on the season. It’ll be hard for fantasy owners
to forget about the garbage he left on our doorsteps in Week 6,
but if you’re not going to play him in this matchup, when
will you? Start him against the Chargers and hope that Trevor
Siemian’s bad play doesn’t put the Broncos in an early
deficit this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Keenan Allen failed to live up to some lofty
expectations in Week 6, but a five catch, 45-yard day is not necessarily
terrible in PPR formats. That type of performance is about Allen’s
floor as long as he stays healthy, which really makes him an interesting
play even in what is a very difficult on paper. The Broncos haven’t
allowed a single opposing receiver exceed even 65 yards against
them in a game this season and certainly the pass defense was
not the reason the Broncos fell to the Giants in Week 6. Still,
Allen’s high target share on a week to week basis makes
him a viable WR2 in this matchup. Unfortunately, the other wide
receivers in this passing game, including rookie Mike Williams,
should not be trusted in this contest. In fact, the only other
player in the passing game who should be on fantasy radars against
the Broncos is tight end Hunter Henry. Henry has seen his target
share continue to creep up and Denver has struggled to shut down
opposing tight ends in recent weeks.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon continued his ascension
toward becoming one of the best fantasy players in the entire
league this past week as he compiled an impressive 150 total yards
of offense, scoring both as a runner and as a receiver, in the
Chargers’ Week 6 victory over the Raiders. Gordon has now
scored a whooping seven touchdowns in six games this season and
19 in his past 20 games going back to the start of the 2016 season.
Gordon is one of the few true “bell cow” backs who
plays almost every snap for his team and that gives him not tremendous
upside but also a great floor. His production against the Broncos
has been excellent since the start of 2016, too. He compiled an
impressive 249 total yards in two games against the Broncos in
2016 and got into the end zone with 79 total yards when these
teams squared off back in Week 1. Gordon is one of the top plays
in fantasy football, especially against a reeling Denver run defense
that just got humiliated by Orleans Darkwa on Sunday Night Football.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is quietly having a mediocre
season by his standards with 21.3 fantasy points per game, the
second-fewest points since his first season with the Saints in
2016. Part of his decline can be attributed to a tough opening
week on the road against Minnesota, while negative game scripts
created by a surprisingly strong defense has reduced the necessity
for the 38-year-old future first-ballot Hall of Famer to throw
the ball. At an average of 36 pass attempts per game, Brees is
on pace for roughly 575 attempts on the season, nearly 100 less
than he threw in 2016.
Although he currently ranked 12th in points per game, Brees owners
should feel comfortable starting him this week against a Packers
defense that has allowed the 17th-most points to opposing quarterbacks,
and the Brett Hundley-led Packers offense could provide some short
fields for the Saints offense. On the same note, the Saints defense
could once again limit the need to Brees to pass the ball excessively,
and the two-headed ground attack of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara
could also restrict Brees’ scoring.
Second-year wide receiver Michael Thomas has been one of the
fantasy assets hurt by the reduction of pass attempts by Brees
and negative game scripts, with the former Ohio State Buckeye
failing to reach the century mark in any game this season. Thomas
enters Week 7 ranked as the 19th wide receiver at 8.8 FPts/G,
with two receiving touchdowns and 321 yards on 43 targets. Assuming
this game does not get out of hand with special teams or defensive
scores, Thomas should be in line for his best game of the season
against a banged-up Green Bay secondary.
Injuries to an already struggling Packers secondary are positives
for Brees and the passing game, as starting cornerbacks Davon
House and Kevin King were inactive last week against the Vikings,
along with starting safety, Morgen Burnett. In addition, cornerback
Quentin Rollins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury and was
placed on IR on Monday.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram delivered his best game of
the season with Adrian Peterson no longer in the picture, with
114 yards and two scores on 25 carries, along with five catches
for 36 yards. The 27-point performance against the Lions vaulted
Ingram up to 14th on the season at 11.3 FPts/G, just behind Aaron
Jones and Carlos Hyde. Rookie Alvin Kamara also benefitted from
the departure of Peterson with 10 carries for 75 yards, both season
highs for the first year player from Tennessee.
Both players are excellent plays against the Packers defense
that ranks ninth in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Six different
running backs have posted double-digit point performances against
the Pack in the past five weeks, highlighted by Jerick McKinnon’s
21.9 point game last week in Minnesota.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone
against the Vikings on Sunday and will require surgery that will
likely cost him the rest of the regular season. Former UCLA quarterback
Brett Hundley assumes the role as starting quarterback for the
Packers, with head coach Mike McCarthy telling reporters on Monday
that the team has no intention of bringing in a free agent like
Colin Kaepernick to compete for the job.
Hundley completed 19-of-34 passes for 157 yards in reserve of
Rodgers last week, with one passing touchdown and three interceptions.
Not exactly an impressive debut for the 24-year-old former fifth-round
pick in the 2015 NFL draft, but facing the Vikings in an emergency
role is not the easiest of duties.
It remains to be seen if Hundley can play well and join Deshaun
Watson, Dak Prescott, and Carson Wentz as young quarterbacks who
developed into fantasy relevant players at a very young age. Until
we have more information, Hundley should be considered a start
in two-quarterback leagues, and the wide receivers for Green Bay
need to be downgraded at least one tier.
Davante Adams was the recipient of nearly 30% of the throws from
Hundley against the Vikings, while Jordy Nelson was second on
the team with 27% of the targets. Randall Cobb was the most significant
loser last week when Rodgers went down, as Hundley looked his
way just 9% of the time.
On a positive note for Green Bay skill players in the passing
game, three quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards and three
scores this season against the Saints, highlighted by a 447/3
line by Tom Brady Week 2. Only a rusty Cam Newton and jet-lagged
Jay Cutler have failed to score at least 25 points against the
New Orleans defense that ranks sixth in fantasy points per game
allowed to opposing QBs.
To continue the recent string of success of QB’s facing
the Saints, Hundley will need to protect the ball and limit turnovers.
Hundley threw three picks last week against the Vikings, and the
Saints are tied for fourth for the most interceptions forced this
year.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: As expected, Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery
shared the rushing duties fairly evenly in Monty’s first
game back from a rib injury. Neither player did much with their
carries against a tough Minnesota defense that was stacking the
box against Hundley. A similar equal distribution of carries should
be expected in this game, and it would not be surprising to see
New Orleans load the box and force Hundley to beat them outside.
The Packers enter Sunday’s game ranked fourth in the league
for the most pass attempts per game at 65%. With Rodgers on the
shelf and an inexperienced QB under center, head coach Mike McCarthy
may attempt to be more balanced in hopes of limiting the mistakes
of his young QB, while trying to keep Drew Brees and the Saints
offense off the field.
Regardless of how McCarthy attacks the Saints defense, injuries
to three of the five starting offensive linemen for the Packers
will make winning the game difficult. Left tackle David Bakhtiari
aggravated his hamstring injury against the Vikings, right tackle
Bryan Bulaga suffered a concussion and is still in the concussion
protocol, and starting guard Lane Taylor suffered a knee injury
that may keep him out for a while.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco and the Baltimore passing offense
has been nothing short of pathetic through the first six weeks
of the NFL season, as Flacco ranks 37th among quarterbacks in
points per game at 11. He has as many passing touchdowns (4) as
Kevin Hogan and Brian Hoyer - two quarterbacks who were benched
last week after dismal performances, and he ranks deep last in
completions of 15 yards or more among qualified passers. Even
with a home matchup against a beatable Bears secondary, Flacco
completed just 58% of his passes for 180 and two interceptions
as Chicago upset Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium.
Flacco’s deficiencies and an inability to stay healthy
has relegated Jeremy Maclin (shoulder) to a weak flex play in
deep leagues. Mike Wallace (back) has flashed some value with
two consecutive double-digit games in Weeks 4 & 5, only to
follow up with a 3/30 turd against the Bears. Sure, it is possible
that Wallace or Maclin score a touchdown this week against the
Vikings, by they are risky, touchdown dependent plays that should
be avoided.
Starting any Ravens pass-catching skill players is a risky proposition
regardless of the matchup, but starting them on the road against
the Vikings is borderline crazy. Minnesota has allowed two touchdowns
to opposing wide receivers at home, with DeSean Jackson and Davante
Adams each reaching paydirt this year. But no opposing WR has
reached the century mark, including stud wideouts Mike Evans,
Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, or Jordy Nelson.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Alex Collins and Buck Allen were successful
in running the ball last week against the Bears as the only bright
spot in the Ravens otherwise abysmal offense, with the RB tandem
combining for 123 yards on 25 carries. They may find it more difficult
to average five yards per carry against Vikings defense that has
allowed the second-fewest points to opposing running backs.
Detroit’s Ameer Abdullah is the only running back to score
a rushing touchdown against the Vikings, and no RB has reached
the century mark. Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard, Ty Montgomery,
Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara, and Abdullah have all failed to
reach 100 yards on the ground against Minnesota.
With a negative game script possible and the fact that Collins
has yet to catch a pass out of the backfield or earn a red zone
carry (52 carries this season without a red zone touch), starting
Collins is a risky proposition. Of the two, Allen is more of an
attractive play because of his use as a receiver and the likelihood
of the Ravens chasing points.
On a positive note for Ravens running backs, starting linebacker
Anthony Barr missed practice on Wednesday with a concussion and
ankle injury, while stellar run support safety Andrew Sendejo
was limited with a groin injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aside from his career-best 369-yard, three-touchdown
game Week 3 against Tampa Bay, Vikings quarterback Case Keenum
has been a No.2 quarterback this season at best, with four games
of one passing touchdown or less. His 239/1/1 line last week against
the Packers was a huge disappointment considering the Packers
were decimated in the secondary with injuries and the Vikings
were playing at home.
If Keenum was incapable of putting up No.1 QB stats against a
defense using third and fourth-string cornerbacks, it is hard
to imagine how he will be able to do well against a Baltimore
defense that ranks 25th in points allowed to QBs. If you throw
out the flukey four-touchdown game Blake Bortles posted against
the Ravens in London Week 3, no QB has managed to throw for more
than 216 yards and a score against the Ravens this year.
On the injury front, Keenum’s top wide receiver Stefon
Diggs did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable once again
this week with a groin injury. Fellow wide receiver Michael Floyd
did not participate in practice yesterday as well, and staring
center Nick Easton sat out with a calf injury.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon posted his second-consecutive
20-point game in the post-Dalvin Cook era of 2017 Vikings football,
while Latavius Murray looked slow and ineffective with 15 carries
for 28 yards. McKinnon is the back to own and should be the focal
point of the Vikings offense once against this week, as the Ravens
are more susceptible against the run than the pass, allowing the
sixth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, and Jordan
Howard all scored touchdowns this season while posting double-digit
fantasy points against the Ravens defense, highlighted by a 30.6
point performance by Bell Week 4.
The Ravens will get a shot in the arm with the likely return
of defensive tackle and run stopping stud Brandon Williams, who
was a full participant in practice (foot) on Wednesday and looks
to be on track to play Week 7. William’s return to the middle
of the defensive line and the possibility of Easton missing the
game makes running the ball up the middle a challenge for the
Vikings, thus limiting Murray’s value even more.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a slow start to the season that included
a shocking three-interception game at home against the Saints,
Cam Newton has been a fantasy stud over the past three weeks with
three games of at least 29 fantasy points. In those three games,
Newton has thrown for an average of 303 yards, while increasing
his rushing attempts and rushing production compared to his first
three games. With ten carries for 71 yards and a score last week
against Philly, Newton looked like a version of his old self when
he rushed for 636 yards and 10 scores back in 2015.
A prime beneficiary of Newton’s increased passing stats
is Devin Funchess, who has emerged as a viable fantasy play with
three touchdowns in his last three games. The former Michigan
Wolverine struggled a bit last week against Philly (3 catches
for 36 yards and zero touchdowns on nine targets), but a knee
injury that forced Kelvin Benjamin from practice on Wednesday
could bode well for Funchess owners.
Newton’s matchup this week isn’t choice, as the Bears
have been fairly tough against opposing quarterbacks (26th fewest
points per game), with Aaron Rodgers as the only quarterback to
throw for more than one touchdown. If you take away Rodgers’
four passing touchdown performance Week 4, the Bears would rank
just behind Jacksonville as the stingiest unit against opposing
QBs.
On the injury front, center Ryan Kalil worked in a limited practice
on Wednesday and looks like he might return to the field after
sustaining a neck injury Week 1 against the 49ers. Kalil’s
return to the middle of the Panther offensive line would be a
big boost to both the passing and running game for Carolina.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Christian McCaffrey could be in
line for a big game as opposing running backs have found success
this season against a Bears unit that has allowed the 18th-most
fantasy points to RBs. McCaffrey ranks No.1 among all running
backs with 24% of his team’s receiving targets, with just
over 90% of his total fantasy points coming from the passing game.
Le’Veon Bell, Tevin Coleman, and Jerick McKinnon have all
found success as a receiving RB against the Bears, and McCaffrey
could earn more carries this week with Jonathan Stewart somewhat
limited with an ankle injury.
Even if Stewart can play on Sunday, his value this season as
a touchdown-dependent tailback (TD dependent yet has not scored
a rushing TD) has been greatly diminished with the resurgence
of Newton in the ground game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As the 35th ranked quarterback in fantasy
points per game, rookie Mitchell Trubisky is not someone you would
want to start in any matchup at this point in the season. The
second-overall pick from UNC continues to have the reigns held
tightly by head coach John Fox, as the Bears focus on a rushing-centered
offense that produced a whopping 50 rushing attempts last week
against Baltimore.
Trubisky threw the ball just 16 times against the Ravens, completing
eight passes for 113 yards and a score. A nice bonus for owners
in two-quarterback leagues is the fact that Trubisky’s athleticism
as a runner has been on full display, with four rushes for 32
yards last week.
The matchup for Trubisky is favorable, with the Panthers allowing
their last four opponents to post double-digit fantasy points,
highlighted by Carson Wentz’s 222/3 line last week. But
the Bears simply do not throw the ball enough to take advantage
of the matchup, and no pass-catching Bear outside of tight end
Zach Miller is worthy of a start until Trubisky is able to open
up the offense.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Second-year back Jordan Howard avoided
the sophomore slump that can plague young players who break out
in their rookie season, with 13.2 fantasy points per game fueled
by the fourth-most attempts of any running back. Howard and backfield
mate Tarik Cohen combined for 50 carries in last week’s
win over the Ravens, and a similar run-heavy game plan is likely
this week against Carolina.
The matchup for Howard and Cohen is not as attractive as last
week, as the Panthers rank 29th in points per game (Baltimore
ranks 6th). Only Alvin Kamara, Zach Zenner, and Dion Lewis have
managed to score a touchdown against the Panthers, and no player
has rushed for more than 67 yards in a game.
Despite the problematic slate, you are starting Howard every
week regardless of the matchup, and he should be in your lineup
this week due to the likely volume he will receive. Cohen returns
to a possible flex play with Benny Cunningham limited by a hamstring
injury and the fact that the Panthers have allowed the third-most
catches to running backs this season.
It should be noted that stud linebacker Luke Kuechly did not
participate in Wednesday’s practice and could miss this
game with concussion symptoms. If Kuechly is out, Howard and Cohen
receive a hefty bump.
Passing
Game Thoughts: At just over 20 fantasy points per game,
Marcus Mariota enters Sunday’s matchup against the Browns
as the 15th ranked fantasy quarterback. The former second overall
selection in the 2015 draft has struggled somewhat as a passer,
with four interceptions and only four touchdown passes in five
games. But he has already set a new career mark for rushing touchdowns
with three and is well on his way to setting career highs in rushing
yards and rushing attempts.
As you might imagine, throwing four touchdown passes in five
games limits the fantasy production of the skill position players
on the roster. Tennessee wide receivers rank 27th in fantasy points
scored, with Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor as the only two
wide receivers to score a touchdown or post a double-digit game.
Despite his inability to covert targets into meaningful fantasy
production, the Titans continue to feature tight end Delanie Walker
in the passing game and with an occasional jet sweep. Walker is
on pace for over 100 targets, but he has yet to catch a touchdown
pass, and he looks primed to post his second-worst yardage total
since joining the Titans in 2013.
Mariota owners should be salivating with this week’s matchup
as a chance for their quarterback to post a season-high in touchdown
passes, as the Browns are tied with the Patriots for the most
TD passes allowed on the season. Although he hasn’t posted
a top-20 TE game in the past three weeks, Walker should get back
on track as well against a Browns team that is second in points
allowed to opposing tight ends.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray looks to be a bit questionable
for Sunday’s game after failing to practice on Wednesday
and Thursday. Head coach Mike Mularkey was quoted on Tuesday stating
that Derrick Henry is his team’s closing running back and
will continue to spilt time. If Murray is out completely, Henry
will vault into No.1 RB consideration.
Henry enters Sunday’s game after a career-high 19 carries
for 131 yards and a score against Indy Week 6. Certainly an impressive
performance for the second year player, but it should be noted
that his 72-yard touchdown scamper in the closing minutes of a
decided contest buoyed his stats for the game. Without the run
against a defense that quit on the play, Henry’s stat line
would have been 18 carries for 59 yards for a 3.2 YPC average.
Another thing to consider is the common narrative in 2016 that
you always start your running backs against the Browns, as Cleveland
is a sieve when it comes to allowing rushing yards and scores.
That is not the case in 2017, with the Browns allowing the 24th-fewest
points to opposing RB’s and only one rushing touchdown in
six games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Someone needs to review Hue Jackson’s
contract to see if he gets a bonus for setting an NFL record for
quarterback changes, as the second-year head coach once again
has benched Kevin Hogan for rookie DeShone Kizer. Hogan was dreadful
against the Texans last week, completing just 20-of-37 passes
for 140 yards and a touchdown. He threw three interceptions while
getting sacked four times against a Texans defense decimated by
injury.
Kizer has not been much better, completing less than 50% of his
passes this season, with touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
With Tennessee likely taking an early lead and forcing Kizer to
pass extensively in the second half, it would not surprise me
to see Kizer add to his interception total.
The return of Kizer to the passing game should improve the fortune
of running back Duke Johnson, the best receiving option on the
team and the only receiving threat on the team worthy of a fantasy
start. With Hogan under center, Johnson saw a significant reduction
in targets and yardage from his seven target average under Kizer.
Richardo Louis continued his recent streak of getting six or
more targets, but he appears to be just another flash in the pan
and should be only considered as a flex play in the deepest of
leagues. Some owners might get tempted to start Louis against
a Titans defense that has allowed the tenth-most points to opposing
WRs this season, including the only big game for mega-disappointment
Amari Cooper. The matchup indeed appears to be attractive, but
the fact that Louis has yet to reach pay dirt makes him a bit
of a risky play.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Jackson made headlines this summer when
he said that it “pained” him when he realized how
much he underutilized Isaiah Crowell last season in the ground
game. The fantasy community bought into the hype and Crow became
a favorite breakout candidate for many writers (lucky for me,
I did not jump on this bandwagon). Not only are Browns fans and
Crowell owners sick with the fact that Crow has yet to receive
more than 17 carries in a game, he has yet to score a touchdown
in 2017, and he is averaging a pedestrian 4.4 per tote.
A big reason why Crowell has still not been utilized as a true
workhorse back is the fact that Cleveland has led in only one
game this season. It is hard to give a running back 20 carries
in a game in which you trail, which is why Johnson continues to
be the back to own and play in Cleveland.
The Titans rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs,
with four combined rushing and receiving touchdowns allowed on
the season. If forced to pick which Browns back will score, my
guess would be Johnson based on the likely negative game script.
But owners who used a third or fourth round pick on Crow may not
have better No.2 RB options, and he will get at least 12 to 15
carries in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton and the Bengals return from
the bye week with a tough road divisional matchup against the
Steelers, a team that Dalton has struggled against in his career
(only one top-12 performance against Pittsburgh in 11 games).
The red rifle will not have his TD scoring tight end Tyler Eifert
for the rest of the season after the team placed the oft-injured
TE on injured reserve after back surgery, leaving A.J. Green and
a stable of three running backs as the main skill position players
for Dalton.
The Steelers have been excellent against the pass this season,
limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 13.3 points per game (second
best behind only Jacksonville). The stats for Pittsburgh are a
bit skewed based on the fact that the Steelers have played some
pretty poor quarterbacks, but you can’t argue against allowing
just four passings touchdowns in six games.
With Dalton’s past struggles against Pittsburgh and the
Steelers success this season, especially at home, Dalton is a
fringe play in even the deepest of leagues. But that does not
mean that you need to sit A.J. Green, Dalton’s stud wide
receiver that has been able to work past Dalton’s struggles
for three top-5 performances in his last four games against Pittsburgh.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The three-headed monster that is the Cincinnati
running back committee ranks 20th in team rushing heading into
the Week 7 matchup against Pittsburgh, with only one rushing touchdown
between Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, and Joe Mixon.
Mixon is the volume leader of the group and clearly the most
talented back, but he has been close to bust-worth with his 2.8
YPC average on 67 attempts. If he continues to struggle, it would
not be surprising to see Marvin Lewis lean more heavily on Hill
and Bernard.
Lewis will need to get production from his run game if he has
any hope of winning this game and beating the Steelers on the
ground has been the recipe for success for other teams. Pittsburgh
ranks seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs, highlighted
by a breakout 22/181/2 game by leading rookie of the year candidate,
(I do love Kareem Hunt as well) Leonard Fournette.
The two teams that have beaten the Steelers this season are Jacksonville
and Chicago, two teams who relied heavily on the run and shut
down Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing game. Lewis
certainly knows this and will try to run the ball like crazy on
Sunday. It remains to be seen if Mixon, Hill, and Bernard can
provide enough production to make the strategy work again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger’s poor play this
season, even at home, has derailed the narrative that you always
play Big Ben in home games. In two home games, albeit against
tough defenses like Minnesota and Jacksonville, Big Ben has just
one passing touchdown and five interceptions. Roethlisberger has
a history of struggling against the Bengals and Marvin Lewis’
defenses, with just five total touchdowns combined in his last
four games against Cincinnati.
To make matters worse for Big Ben and his chances of bouncing
back to his old form, three starting offensive lineman missed
practice due to injuries, including starting center Maurice Pouncey,
who is dealing with a chest injury.
It is somewhat of a head-scratcher that Big Ben can rank 23rd
in fantasy points per game, yet Antonio Brown and Le’Veon
Bell each rank in the top five in their respective positions.
Brown is a must-start regardless of the matchup, although expectations
should be tempered because his two worst games of the 2016 season
came against the Bengals.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell continues to be an
elite blue chip fantasy play based on his supreme talent and excessive
usage in both the running and passing game. Bell leads the league
in carries with 134 attempts for 500 yards and four rushing touchdowns,
and his 30 receptions for 156 yards puts him at third among running
backs, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
With Big Ben’s struggles, Bell will continue to get heavy
usage as a runner and a receiver this week against the Bengals,
a team that has had some limited success in keeping Bell from
having blowout games against them over the past two seasons. Bell
rushed for 93 yards on 23 carries and no touchdowns against Cincinnati
in his one game last year, and he suffered his season-ending knee
injury on October 17th against the Bengals in 2015.
Despite his recent history against the Bengals and the fact that
Big Ben is trying to find his groove, Bell is a must start after
scoring double-digit points in each of his last four games, while
receiving an amazing 30 touches per game during that span.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jacksonville is averaging a whopping 169.7
passing yards per game in 2017. The sample size is now six games,
almost half the fantasy season. That stat alone makes any Jags
pass catcher a risky play for fantasy purposes. However, the allure
of playing against one of the best matchups in the league and
the potential loss of Marqise Lee this week gives Allen Hurns’
fantasy stock a pulse for Week 7. I’m still not convinced
this offense will need to throw the ball much in this game to
warrant playing Hurns. Last week’s box score shows a quarterback
being coached to simply dump off to the running back instead of
taking chances down the field. Lee is off the fantasy radar after
failing to log a practice through Thursday as he copes with a
knee injury sustained a week ago. Marcedes Lewis, Arrelious Benn
and Keelan Cole would benefit should Lee sit out this week but
none are worth gambling on. Philosophically, the Jags are not
going to throw the ball as often as other teams so look elsewhere
for your receiving needs.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: It’s a great week to start Jacksonville
running backs. Playing in a favorable matchup on a team that has
favored the running game usually leads to success for fantasy
owners. There is a potential fly in the ointment this week with
Leonard Fournette missing practice time due to an ankle injury.
He suffered the injury during last week’s game so you can
bet the team is going to give him all week to recover. Fantasy
owners should consider him a game-time decision and hope for the
best. Chris Ivory would take on almost all rushing duties if Fournette
can’t go. In this scenario he is a must start in all formats
including DFS. Ivory enjoyed one of his best games in Week 6,
leading the team in receptions! That potential development is
worth watching closely to see if it continues. Ivory has been
doing well in short sample sizes but if the team finds more ways
to get him the ball, he could become a weekly flex option in standard
formats. Even in a backup role, I think there is enough to like
about Ivory’s chances at putting up fantasy points to make
him a flex option so get him into your lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts acknowledged Andrew
Luck had a “setback” with his recovery from shoulder
surgery this week. His return to the field in 2017 is in jeopardy
and it is very difficult to paint a picture where he can help
fantasy owners this year. Drop him in single season formats and
use the extra roster spot on that player you had been keeping
your eye on for the past couple of weeks. Jacoby Brissett has
proven to be a far superior stopgap solution over Scott Tolzien.
Thank your luck stars the team didn’t try and stick with
Tolzien for an entire year. The youngster from N.C. State is giving
the Colts passing game a little life these days but that doesn’t
mean the Colts’ passing game is great for fantasy owners.
There is more to like but Brissett is still cutting his teeth.
Brissett has played better in his three home games this year so
there is some hope that he can be productive against the Jags
in Week 7. However, Jacksonville might have the NFL’s best
pass defense right now and I’d think long and hard about
trusting a young quarterback to deliver the goods if I owned any
Indianapolis player. Jack Doyle had a nice return to the lineup
and tight ends tend to have success when paired with young quarterbacks
The Jags have allowed the twelfth most fantasy points (standard
scoring) to tight ends compared to second fewest to wide receivers.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: No matter how average or bad the passing
game plays any given week; Frank Gore collects his typical yards.
In a year that has seen plenty of running backs get hurt or suffer
from poor play of the offense, Gore has posted solid RB3 numbers
stay afloat. He’s not a RB2 this week, but if you need a
guy due to bye weeks he’s good for about 50 yards and maybe
tacks on a point or two in the passing game. It’s not sexy,
but it isn’t ugly either. Marlon Mack got squeezed in a
back and forth affair on Monday night. That will change now that
Robert Turbin was placed on IR (arm). In a pinch, Mack might turn
out to be an OK flex start in deep leagues. If the Colts get behind
early or it becomes a large deficit, the Colts may choose Mack
over the ageless Gore to run out the clock.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown threw for a season high 354
yards last week. It was against the Patriots laughably poor secondary,
so it comes with a grain of salt, but McCown can still play. For
perspective, the Jaguars would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender
with Josh McCown. He is a viable streaming option in the right
matchup. The biggest takeaway from last week is the arrival of
Austin Seferian-Jenkins. We saw it coming as soon as he returned
in Week 3, but he has now officially entered the circle of trust
at the TE position (which is incredibly small this year). ASJ
saw 11 targets last week, catching eight of them for 47 yards
and two touchdowns. Yes, I know the official stat line says 8-46-1,
but you and I both know that he did not fumble that ball through
the end zone. ASJ is a legit TE1 and should be owned and started
in almost all leagues. He is a far more reliable option for McCown
than either Jermaine Kearse or Robby Anderson. Kearse and Anderson
had similar games last week, totaling 79 and 76 yards on four
receptions respectively, but Kearse did it on four targets; Anderson
had 12. Kearse could be useful as a big play hopeful on a bye
week, but neither him nor Anderson are even must owns in fantasy.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: With Bilal Powell out, Matt Forte returned
and this is the closest he’s looked to Chicago Bears Matt
Forte since he joined the Jets. Forte doesn’t have it anymore
so he can’t do much on the ground (9-22), but he caught
all eight of his targets for 59 yards. If Powell can’t return
this week, Forte is a viable PPR flex option. However, Powell
practiced on Thursday and appears to be trending towards playing.
Elijah McGuire was out-snapped and outplayed by Forte last week.
McGuire had a near identical line to Forte on the ground (one
more carry, same yardage total), but didn’t catch a pass.
McGuire also failed on his only goal line opportunity. He can
be dropped everywhere. The Dolphins just allowed Devonta Freeman
and Tevin Coleman to rush for 5.5 ypc so the Jets should be able
to move the ball on the ground, but if Powell returns, this backfield
will be an unusable three-headed monster.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler threw two touchdowns last week
but managed just 4.6 yards per attempt and totaled 151 yards.
With DeVante Parker out with a sprained ankle, almost half of
Cutler’s passes was directed towards Jarvis Landry. Landry
caught eight of 14 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. He remains
an incredibly high floor PPR option. The Jets are by no means
an imposing foe, but the last time these two teams played, the
Dolphins did not score any points until 0:00 was on the clock.
I expect a better effort this week and Landry should be his usual
WR2 self, especially given that it does not look like Parker will
be able to return just yet. Kenny Stills assumed the starting
role opposite Landry and although he scored a touchdown last week,
he only saw four targets. There isn’t much to see here beyond
Landry.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi had the quietest 130 yards rushing
I’ve seen in quite some time. I just feel like no one mentioned
it, but he is a big part of why the Dolphins were able to win.
However, despite averaging a season high 5.0 ypc last week, Ajayi
is still at just 3.8 ypc on the season and he’s yet to score
a touchdown. Last week was also his first game without catching
a pass. I think it’s safe to assume Ajayi vastly outperforms
his 11 carry 16-yard effort against the Jets in Week 3. I want
to say being at home will help, but both of Ajayi’s 100-yard
rushing games have come on the road. Regardless, expect a much
better effort from the Dolphins this time around.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Heading into a matchup with what has been
one of the best pass defenses of 2017, Jameis Winston is nursing
a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. His status remains
up in the air but I do not expect Winston to play. Last week,
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a typical Ryan Fitzpatrick outing –
multiple touchdowns and multiple turnovers. Mike Evans, DeSean
Jackson, and Cameron Brate all scored touchdowns as Fitzpatrick
moved the offense just as well, if not better than Winston. Brate
has caught at least four passes and scored in four consecutive
games. He is a locked in TE1 as O.J. Howard is relegated to blocking
duties. Evans caught a break with Patrick Peterson exiting with
a quad issue and was able to salvage his fantasy day with a 37-yard
score.
Although the Bills are an imposing matchup, Evans should have
a much easier time this week. Jackson hasn’t caught more
than five passes in a game yet but still has big play potential
making him a boom or bust WR4 that has been lucky enough to sort
of “boom” more weeks than not thus far. Regardless
of who plays QB for the Bucs, he will not be someone you want
in your lineup, while paradoxically, Evans and Brate are must
starts as you never bench Evans and there aren’t enough
reliable TEs to bench Brate.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin only touched the ball 15 times
last week as he was a victim of game script with the Bucs trailing
for the entire game. Charles Sims is still being used on passing
downs over Martin which is a mystery to me. Martin should be in
on every snap unless he’s tired. Martin was able to save
his fantasy day with a touchdown and is averaging 4.7 ypc on his
first 27 carries to start the season. Whether it’s Winston
or Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bucs are unlikely to be in catch up
mode to the point where they have to abandon the run, allowing
Martin to remain part of the game plan. He should see the ball
upwards of 20 times and is looking like one of the better bargains
of draft day. Jacquizz Rodgers is completely irrelevant and does
not need to be owned as anything more than Martin’s handcuff.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Regardless of the matchup, Tyrod Taylor
is probably going to get you a little under 200 yards passing
and a touchdown. He has yet to rush for a touchdown this season,
which is due to change eventually, especially given how depleted
his receiving corps is. Jordan Matthews still doesn’t appear
ready to return despite his return to limited practices Wednesday
and Thursday and the Bills lost Charles Clay the week before the
bye, leaving Andre Holmes and Zay Jones as Taylor’s top
options. The Bucs just got lit up by the all-2008 squad so the
opportunity is there for Taylor to have his first big game of
the season. Unfortunately, Jones sports an undesirable 21.7% catch
rate and he and Holmes have a combined 11 receptions on the season.
While the matchup is favorable, the Bills are likely to lean heavily
on the running game.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy heads into Week 7 without
a touchdown on the season. This week as good of a time as any
for that to change after the Bucs just got shredded by the ghost
of Adrian Peterson in a vintage 26 carry 134-yard performance.
Shady is averaging a career worst 3.2 ypc, but is getting by on
sheer volume. He is currently on pace for over 275 carries, not
to mention his heavy involvement in the passing game. McCoy has
27 receptions over his first five contests. He should continue
to be the Bills’ leading receiver as they don’t really
have anyone else. Shady could easily eclipse 25 touches this week
and is locked in as a strong RB1 play. Mike Tolbert has been on
the field more than Shady owners would like him to be, but it’s
probably for the best that the Bills aren’t completely running
McCoy into the ground. There are plenty of touches to go around
but Tolbert does not have any standalone fantasy value.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The bye came at the perfect time for Seattle
as star WR Doug Baldwin needed it to get back to 100%. Baldwin
has barely been startable this year outside of his lone quality
performance Week 3 at Tennessee (10-105-1). Other than that, he’s
caught more than four passes just once and in that game where
he caught six balls, he only amassed 63 yards. Hopefully, the
week off will serve to get Baldwin and the Seahawks’ passing
offense back on track. Baldwin should avoid Janoris Jenkins as
he runs many of his routes out of the slot. Russell Wilson is
healthy, but he’s still not producing at an elite level.
He lit up Tennessee and Indianapolis, but completely flopped in
his other three games. For a consensus top six QB1, Wilson has
an awful lot of single score games. He needs to start stringing
together multi-touchdown outings before we can truly trust him
again.
The Giants defense looked very pedestrian until last week’s
demolition of the Broncos, but even in a dominant performance,
Demaryius Thomas still couldn’t be stopped. Wilson is obviously
far better than Trevor Siemian and is capable of beating any matchup.
It is not the Giants defense that I fear in Wilson and Baldwin,
but the players themselves. They simply need to produce. Jimmy
Graham can help as well. He still doesn’t look like he cares,
but he did catch a touchdown two weeks ago. That helped hide the
fact that he only totaled 37 yards receiving. Graham is not a
must start TE, but the Giants have given up the most fantasy points
to the position so I’m choosing to be cautiously optimistic.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: I have no idea why Eddie Lacy is on an
NFL roster, let alone receiving snaps. C.J. Prosise might return
this week but Pete Carroll thinks Prosise will return every week.
Even if he does, he’ll probably just get hurt again. Then
there’s Thomas Rawls and J.D. McKissic. This is at least
a three-way timeshare, if not a four-way timeshare meaning no
one in this backfield can be trusted. This is just an avoid across
the board.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I would have been way more bullish on the
Giants offense last week if I knew Ben McAdoo was giving up play
calling duties. That’s huge for the prospects of Eli Manning
and his only remaining pass catcher, Evan Engram. I criticize
coaches all the time for trying to get too cute by using their
best players as decoys when they should really just draw up plays
to get the ball in the hands of the playmakers. Credit to the
Giants for doing just that. The offensive game plan last week
was clearly to throw the ball to Evan Engram. It worked. Engram
caught five balls for 82 yards and a touchdown that was a designed
wipe play that worked to perfection. Engram is one of the most
impressive physical specimens to ever play the TE position. Rookie
TEs should not be this good but Engram is simply a freak. With
Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall done for the season and Sterling
Shepard still nursing his own ankle injury, Engram will remain
the focal point of the passing attack for now and probably the
rest of the season. He projects as an elite TE1 the rest of the
way.
As for the actual WRs, Roger Lewis and Tavarres King played the
most snaps last week, but neither was heavily targeted. There’s
no benefit in guessing whether one of them will be featured this
week. Shepard practiced Thursday and may return Sunday, but he
will certainly not be 100% just yet. Shepard was already poised
to overtake a cooked Brandon Marshall in target share so he will
be second guy in the passing attack if he plays. Seattle boasts
an excellent secondary, though so this offense will once again
funnel through Engram.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Ben McAdoo had no choice but to not give
the ball to Paul Perkins last week as Perkins was out with a rib
injury. Orleans Darkwa handled himself well enough, posting his
first career 100-yard rushing game, beating his previous single
game high of 69 yards (the week before) by 48 yards. He saw 21
carries to Wayne Gallman’s nine. Shane Vereen has become
an afterthought, but is still the Giants best pass blocker. With
Darkwa and Gallman handling the early down work just fine, there
is simply no reason for Perkins to be active ever again. Assuming
that is the case this week, Darkwa has a difficult matchup, but
should still see enough volume to be fantasy viable. Gallman and
Vereen, on the other hand, are just complementary players.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Matt Ryan regression is in full effect,
coming off his anomalously efficient year as an elite fantasy
QB. He has yet to reach 20 fantasy points in a single game even
in six-point passing touchdown leagues. Ryan’s regression
has taken a toll on Julio Jones, who, while not as elite as he’s
been in years’ past, is still performing at a high level.
Jones is top 25 in target separation and hasn’t dropped
a pass yet. For some reason, Jones still doesn’t have a
touchdown and is not amongst the leaders in targets. He has just
37 on the season, which is less than Odell Beckham, who didn’t
even play in two games and was injured during a third.
The Patriots have been the league’s worst pass defense,
allowing a 300-yard passer in every game. Ryan’s struggles
shouldn’t matter – he should throw for 300 yards this
week. Bill Belichick will try and erase Jones, but it’s
time for the Falcons to accept that their offense needs to run
through him and target him relentlessly. With nothing behind Jones
at WR and Austin Hooper operating as the second best pass catcher
(not counting the running backs), Jones should see heavy volume
in a high scoring affair. Hooper is worth mentioning as a TE2
trending towards being a TE1. He’s seen 16 targets over
his past two games and the Patriots struggled with Austin Seferian-Jenkins
last week.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Tevin Coleman has been the model of consistency
this season, which is a stark contrast from his boom or bust nature
in 2016. Coleman has hovered around 10-12 fantasy points in every
game. Devonta Freeman is still the primary back and is averaging
15.8 carries per game, right about where we expected him to be.
He’s also added at least two receptions in every game. Both
Freeman and Coleman would be better for fantasy without the other,
but even together they are both strong weekly plays in their respective
roles. Freeman has five touchdowns in five games and is a good
bet to add to that total this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady is a walking argument in favor
of the wait on a QB strategy. Brady has been great this year.
But he hasn’t given you that weekly edge you’d expect
from Tom Brady. The reality is that Brady is done being super
elite. He’s still a very good QB, but the chinks in the
armor are starting to show. He’s missing throws he never
used to miss. His velocity looks a little slower and he’s
taking more hits. I’d compare Brady to 2014 Peyton Manning.
He’s not completely finished like 2015 Manning, but you
can see the decline.
Brady is still an excellent option in this expected high scoring
affair, which should also provide a bounce back opportunity for
Chris Hogan, who had been incredibly consistent up until his one
catch 19-yard game last week. Hogan had scored in four straight
up until that point. Meanwhile, the connection between Brady and
Brandin Cooks seems to be growing. Cooks had a bad drop last week,
but he ended up with six catches on nine targets for 93 yards.
The boom is coming. Rob Gronkowski had another day at the office
with 83 yards and two scores. He’s healthy, and therefore,
he’s the biggest positional advantage in fantasy. Danny
Amendola also had a down game last week with just 3-40. The entire
Patriots passing attack should be better this week. Perhaps Brady
will remind us how the Falcons managed to blow a 25-point lead
last February.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis started last week and was already
looking to be ahead of Mike Gillislee before Gillislee committed
the irredeemable act of fumbling. The truth is Gillislee isn’t
all that good and is completely one-dimensional. Lewis and James
White can do what Gillislee does reasonably well while both being
infinitely better in the open field. They can also catch passes,
which Gillislee cannot. The Patriots threw the ball 38 times last
week against just 24 runs. They will remain pass heavy, which
is fine for Lewis and White anyway. Although Lewis didn’t
catch a pass last week, White caught four of seven targets for
22 yards. He was the key cog in the Patriots’ Super Bowl
comeback and the Falcons surely haven’t forgotten. They
will likely key in on stopping him, but it may not matter. I wouldn’t
put it past Belichick to try and stick it to the Falcons again
by beating them the same way they did last time. I can no longer
endorse Gillislee as even a touchdown hopeful starting option
and I’m not quite there yet with Lewis. White remains the
only back to trust to any degree.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a bit of a slow start, Kirk Cousins
now has multiple touchdowns in three straight games. He has another
excellent matchup Monday night in Philly as he seeks to avenge
the Redskins Week 1 loss. Most surprising about Cousins’
recent ascension back to the QB1 ranks is that he’s done
it without really throwing to his best pass catchers. Aside from
his fluky long touchdown against the Chiefs, Terrelle Pryor’s
stat lines have been Amari Cooper-esque. Over his last four games,
Pryor hasn’t caught more than three passes and although
he had 70 yards against the Chiefs, his other three totals in
that span were 31, 19, and 23.
Somehow, Jordan Reed has been worse. He’s been banged up,
but he’s also been terrible. Reed hasn’t topped 48
yards in a single game this season and his snap count is significantly
lower than it was when he was fully healthy last year playing
85-90% of the snaps. Reed is essentially a part time player that
is treated like just another guy in the offense so it seems his
elite difference-making days at the TE position are over. I’m
not saying you should drop him, but merely pointing out that you
can. If you were someone who drafted Evan Engram or Cameron Brate
or picked up Austin Seferian-Jenkins and you don’t want
to roster two TEs, I would cut Reed before those two without even
thinking twice. Reed saw his season high of eight targets against
the Eagles Week 1. Best case scenario is he sees that again and
potentially finds the end zone. Jamison Crowder has 17 catches
for 121 yards on the season. Over his last two games, he has four
catches for eight yards. Let him go. Josh Doctson has a chance
to emerge as this team’s top receiver, but he’s not
a startable option just yet.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Samaje Perine has looked just like Rob
Kelley in Kelley’s absence – that is – slow
and lumbering. Perine does not resemble the explosive player we
saw in college. With Kelley back this week, Perine will return
to a bit role, seeing only a handful of snaps. Kelley will once
again be a volume based/touchdown dependent RB3. The only RB you
want is still Chris Thompson, who was treated like a feature back
last week with 16 carries to go along with four receptions. Thompson
is still more receiver than running back, but it does look like
his fantasy value is going to be stable going forward. He is essentially
a better version of 2016 Theo Riddick. Thompson had 52 receiving
yards and a touchdown against the Eagles Week 1 on just eight
total touches. Expect that number to be closer to the 12-15 range
with Kelley back and even higher if Kelley were to reinjure himself
or be a surprise inactive. Thompson has been an RB1 this season
and although that is unlikely to continue, he is a locked in high
floor RB2 play every week at this point.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz has thrown for over 300 yards
in half of his games this season. That started in Week 1 against
the Redskins. Wentz has thrown a touchdown in every game and multiple
scores in four of them, again, including Week 1. He’s been
a locked in QB1 and there’s no reason to expect that to
change this week. He’s been doing it primarily by targeting
Zach Ertz, who has 81 yards or a touchdown in every game this
season. Ertz has been the most consistent tight end this season
and, at this point, Gronk is the only TE I’d prefer over
him. Ertz caught all eight of his targets in Week 1 for 93 yards.
He’s as strong of a play as ever this week.
Alshon Jeffery could get a bit of a break if Josh Norman sits,
but Norman returned to a limited practice Thursday. With this
game on Monday night, we won’t have much clarity on this
before at least Sunday. Norman held Jeffery to just 38 yards on
three receptions in Week 1. Jeffery has yet to post a 100-yard
game and is only catching 50% of his targets. He has still been
a startable option in more than half his game, but his status
this week largely hinges on Norman’s health. He is still
severely out-targeting Nelson Agholor, who, I contend, still isn’t
good at football. I’ve backed off my stance that he shouldn’t
be in the NFL, but Agholor is not actually playing well. He has
caught multiple long touchdowns and scored in four of his six
games. It is not sustainable. If you are starting Agholor with
confidence, you are going to be disappointed.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: LeGarrette Blount continues to not be totally
useless, which, admittedly, is what I thought he would be this
season. Blount is somehow averaging a career high 5.57 ypc and
has been posting useful fantasy days without scoring touchdowns
and without catching passes. The latter is never happening, but
the former should increase. Even though I was incredibly low on
Blount, I certainly expected him to have more than one rushing
touchdown through six games. His Week 1 performance against the
Redskins was his worst of the season (14-46) excluding his Week
2 performance where he didn’t touch the ball. Wendell Smallwood
looks poised to return this week, only further complicating things
between him, Corey Clement, and Kenjon Barner. Somehow, Blount
is the only member of this backfield with any stability. The rest
can be ignored.
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