Notes:
- ITM for all games will be available on Friday.
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Nobody should be surprised to see the preseason’s
top two rated fantasy quarterbacks leading the NFL in touchdown
passes (ten apiece) through the first four weeks. However, it
is the leaky Patriots defense that gives Brady’s weekly
projections a higher floor than his competition. Only two teams
have given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs through four
weeks than the Bucs (TEN and NE) so expect a strong outing from
the passing game. Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan are obvious green
lights but I’d want anyone getting regular targets in this
offense in my starting lineup for Week 5. Even if Brady spreads
the balls around, there should be plenty of passing offense to
make a PPR-only guy like Danny Amendola viable in all formats
this weekend. Rob Gronkowski is a very tough match up for a team
struggling to normal receivers so look for him to “rebound”
nicely following his four-catch 80-yard performance against the
Panthers. Phillip Dorsett is about the only guy fantasy owners
shouldn’t plug in this week. He’s healthy and starting
to get some snaps but he is more valuable as depth to the Patriots
than to fantasy managers at this point in the season.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Mike Gillisee
is proving to be a riskier starting option than his owners thought
he would be after scoring three touchdowns in Week 1. He simply
doesn’t fit the offense as well once the emphasis of the
offense becomes less about ball control and more about putting
up points quickly and efficiently. Gillislee is coming off his
first game of the year with a YPC over four so he isn’t
playing himself out of fantasy points. However, his owners need
to weigh the risks of starting a guy who will see a dozen touches
and may not get as many red zone carries as you’d hope from
a quality offense. James White is becoming another multi-purpose
fantasy running back offering a high floor with low ceiling each
week. Like Danny Woodhead in season’s past or Tevin Coleman
a year ago, and even New Orleans rookie Alvin Kamara this year,
White is gobbling up all-purpose yards as a swiss army knife for
an offense that will continue to need his skills as they get in
and out of shootouts. Tampa has been average against receiving
running backs on the year, but the likelihood for a back and forth,
high scoring affair give White enough upside to not only use as
a PPR RB2 but also as a flex in standard leagues. Despite getting
the start in Week 1, Rex Burkhead has not been a factor in the
rushing attack. He’s been dealing with injuries and isn’t
likely to get a ton of work on a short week against Tampa Bay.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Week 5 offers fantasy owners plenty of hope
as the Bucs passing game faces off against the friendliest pass
defenses for fantasy quarterbacks and receivers. Jamies Winston
has gotten better in every game this season-in terms of fantasy
points scored. He has gone over 300 passing yards in two of his
three games and looks like a solid bet to hit the mark again.
New England has given up 11 passing touchdowns on the year. A
mark that is not only tied for most in the NFL, but more than
any single quarterback has thrown for this season (see Tom Brady
above). Get your swashbucklers into the lineup and enjoy watching
an offense prove it is on the upswing with a more balanced attack
behind Mike Evans. Speaking of Winston’s favorite receiver,
#13 is averaging double digit targets and playing in a favorable
match up so he’s an early favorite to be a top five fantasy
WR in Week 5.
Cameron Brate has picked up right where he left off last season.
Over the past two weeks he has scored twice on eight receptions
for 113 receiving yards. I could see the Bucs trying to get O.J.
Howard involved near the goal to keep the Pats guessing but Brate
remains the better choice for fantasy lineups. By the time the
curtain drops on the opening game of the week, DeSean Jackson
could have Bucs and Pats fans alike recalling the days of Joey
Galloway streaking down the sideline. This might be the last week
Adam Humphries remains available in deeper leagues. He’s
buried on the depth chart but the offense’s increased scoring
opportunities have allowed the third receiver to amass twelve
receptions on 17 targets over the past two weeks. He’s a
flex option in deep pools for Week 5 and affordable depth to add
with bye weeks around the corner.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: The plot
thickens in the Bucs backfield this weekend. Jacquizz Rodgers
time in the spotlight will fade now that Doug Martin has returned
from his suspension. There are plenty of unknowns regarding Martin’s
ability to lead the rushing attack but fantasy owners need to
have faith that his talent and fresh legs will make him a top
25 fantasy RB in Week 5. Rodgers should shift over from the starting
gig to an all-around backup that might include some work in passing
situations. The coaching staff could opt to keep Charles Sims
in that role and render Rodgers almost useless as a fantasy asset
moving forward. The uncertainty comes at an inopportune time because
the Patriots are giving up the NFL’s second most fantasy
points to opposing running backs. Doug Martin owners are more
than eager to get him into the lineup but it’s a crapshoot
figuring out whether to start anyone else.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This game will be a battle of third downs
as each team has struggled to defend and convert on the game’s
most important down. The 49ers enter Week 5 having only converted
18 of 60 third downs but their Week 5 opponent is yielding a 46-percent
conversion rate after four games. That should translate into better
luck for Brian Hoyer. I’m not sure it will be quite enough
to trust starting Hoyer considering he has thrown an interception
in every game played this season and has gone without a touchdown
pass in three games already. However, I might plug Pierre Garcon
into the lineup and cross my fingers that he can help Hoyer out
of his touchdown rut. He should be getting a lot of targets in
this offense and he has seen at least eight in three of four games
to make him the best bet for fantasy owners looking to invest
in the 49ers passing attack this week. There is a huge drop off
after Garcon so Marquise Goodwin (concussion) and the rest of
the gang are extremely risky options in the deepest leagues.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde should be better than he has
been fantasy-wise but the above-mentioned struggles on third downs
have prevented him from being a true workhorse RB1. He’s
not only a solid start heading into his clash with the Colts but
he makes for an attractive trade target. Seattle’s Chris
Carson and Eddie Lacy went over 90 yards rushing against the Colts
a week ago and neither back is as talented as Hyde. The poor threat
of a legit passing attack will always make the sledding tough
for Hyde, but his volume of work this week will vault him into
RB1 territory. Matt Brieda is only getting a handful of carries
and finds himself a non-starter as a handcuff only player for
Week 5.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Andrew Luck dilemma continues for another
week (or two) but the good news is that he has returned to practice
and his return date is approaching. For Week 5 purposes, Indy’s
passing attack will be led by Jacoby Brissett in their third home
game of the year. The good news for fantasy owners is that the
team has moved the ball better with Brissett under center than
Scott Tolzien. The bad news is that the Colts haven’t attempted
more than 29 passes since Week 2 and Brissett’s completion
percentage has been below 56-percent in two of his three games
started. Limited opportunities and limited execution translate
into limited fantasy value-including this week. San Francisco
is viewed as a favorable match up for the Colts’ pass defense
considering they have given up the fifth most fantasy points per
game to opposing wide receivers. Unfortunately, I’m not
a big believer in a team that has essentially run a “wait
for Andrew Luck” style offense in recent weeks. If you are
going to roll the dice on one of Indy’s finest receiving
options there is only one choice worth considering. T.Y. Hilton
has at least six targets in the three games Brissett has started
but he isn’t a lock to net you more than four or five points
in standard leagues. TE Jack Doyle has been in concussion protocol
this week. He may be cleared for Sunday’s game; however,
the low upside of the current Colts offense and injury risk should
have his owners searching for an alternative in Week 5.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: The running game isn’t much better
than the passing game. The Colts are averaging the fewest first
downs per game in the NFL right now (15/g) and there isn’t
any reason to think they will have a change of fortune against
the Niners this week. Despite the sputtering offense, Frank Gore
has been about as good as advertised under realistic preseason
projections. His owners can count on about 12-15 touches per game
with about 50-70 total yards. That’s not stellar but it
has some value at a position that just saw several players go
down with injury in the past couple of weeks. He won’t be
worth using as a flex this week but he remains a good but not
great option to fill in if your other horses are out with a bye
week. Robert Turbin got his first touchdown of the year last week
on the road. His single game high for carries this season is only
six so let him hang out on the waiver wire another week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kansas City is getting the job done in the
Win column and that typically makes for happy fantasy owners.
Alex Smith has quietly been a top 3 starting fantasy QB and the
community is starting to give him a longer look. He’s completing
an incredible 76-percent of his passes and enters the second month
of the year without a single INT. Adding to his wonderful stat
line to open 2017 is his running game. After rushing for more
than 15 yards in a game 13 times during the 2015 regular season,
Smith hit that mark only twice a year ago. He’s already
logged two such games this season so don’t overlook his
scrambling ability to pad his fantasy floor this week. Travis
Kelce’s huge Week 4 (7 receptions, 111 yards and 1 touchdown)
make him the third highest scoring TE coming into this week’s
slate of games. The must-start TE was held in check when these
teams met last season but the Chiefs are playing so efficiently
right now it’s unwise to bet against them regardless of
match up. Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson are all
contributing to Smith’s success but only Hill can take any
single touch to the house. The immense ceiling almost makes him
a must start as a WR3/Flex in standard leagues and a solid WR2
for the PPR crowd.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: When Charcandrick West and a slew of third
stringers are the only realistic alternatives to threaten for
carries, the lead dog in the ground game is going to get plenty
of work. Rookie Kareem Hunt now has 68 rushes on the year his
13 receptions give him an average of 20 touches per game. That’s
fantasy gold for a RB these days. Even better than the fact he
is being fed the ball is his production. The Houston defense is
giving up less than 100 yards on the ground this year and they
will certainly be gearing up for Hunt. That just means it will
be more of the same for the rookie as he uses his volume and an
opportunistic offense to keep his fantasy owners smiling this
week with another solid outing.
Passing
Game Thoughts: DeShaun Watson’s performance last
week topped all other fantasy quarterbacks. In doing so, his fantasy
value has vaulted from being a borderline ownable asset to flirting
with the “weekly starter” label. Houston’s young
quarterback has added a rushing element to the pocket and fantasy
owners have reaped the benefits. Not only is Watson accumulating
chunks of fantasy points via rushing yards, but his two rushing
touchdowns in three games only give optimistic fantasy managers
more confidence in starting him heading into this week’s
matchup with Kansas City. He has yet to show that he can hang
against a quality defense and isn’t likely to play turnover
free against the Chiefs secondary. I remain skeptical that he
is more than a matchup based backup for the fake game this season
(though I’m buying in dynasty) but that’s a tough
opinion to have consider how well he has played.
Whether or not Watson is a legit QB1 this week depends in part
on how well DeAndre Hopkins can continue his return to glory.
There is still plenty of room for more touchdowns, but the targets
and catch rate are back in line where they should be for a player
of his talent. Even if Watson doesn’t have a big game stat
wise, the floor for Hopkins might be at its highest we’ve
seen in the last couple of years so keep him locked in as a WR2.
Will Fuller’s return was a dandy as his speed pairs nicely
with Watson’s natural ability to make big plays. KC will
likely try to push Watson out of the pocket and then contain his
scrambling to prevent the long pass but I like Fuller’s
chances of getting at least one big play to salvage his day as
a useful WR3. TE Ryan Griffin will get another start with C.J.
Fiedorowicz on the IR with a concussion. You could do worse than
grabbing a starting tight end playing in an offense led by a rookie
but he’s still a TE2 for this matchup.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: A week after I called out Lamar Miller
for not getting it into the end zone he promptly scored on the
ground and through the air. The improved offense (thank you Watson)
has helped Miller to round into what fantasy managers expected
last season a year later. Miller’s steady workload of about
20 touches per game keeps him amongst the true workhorse running
backs in the NFL so if the offense can maintain their momentum
Miller has a chance to return low end RB1 production. Facing Kansas
City will be a better test of his true value going forward since
he won’t be playing the Titans every week. If you buy into
Watson then Miller should move up into high end RB2 territory
but for the less optimistic types like myself, Miller makes for
a low end RB2 for Week 5. D’Onte Foreman is getting some
work behind Miller but there is very limited upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through the first four games of the season,
Blake Bortles has averaged more fantasy points per game (18.6)
than Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, and his opposition
for this week, Ben Roethlisberger. The ranking of these quarterbacks
is an indictment to just how poorly Big Ben, Carr, and Dalton
have played, but a closer examination of the stats reveals that
Bortles’ per-game fantasy point average is buoyed by a fluke
30-point game against the Ravens in London. In his other three
games of the year, including a Week 2 matchup against a Titans
team that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in four games, Bortles
has thrown just one passing touchdown, while completing well under
60% of his passes.
Bortles will find it difficult to move the ball in the air against
a Pittsburgh team that has allowed the second-fewest points to
opposing quarterbacks, including an impressive Week 2 26-9 win
over the Vikings in which Case Keenum managed just 167 passing
yards and zero touchdowns. The Steelers are a difficult team to
play at home, especially after an impressive 26-9 win on the road
against Joe Flacco and the Ravens.
Rookie linebacker T.J. Watt’s return from injury last week
was a shot in the arm for the defensive front, with Watt recording
four tackles, including one for a loss. His presence will be critical
for a Steelers unit that may find it difficult to put pressure
on Bortles, as the Jags have allowed the fewest sacks in the first
quarter of the season.
Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee (ribs) continue to vie for the No.1
WR role in the offense after the season-ending knee injury to
Allen Robinson. Lee appeared to be first in line for the job with
his 7/76/0 line on 12 targets Week 2 against Tennessee but has
since come back down to earth with six catches on ten targets
in his last two games combined. Allen Hurns has been the more
valuable fantasy asset with touchdowns in two of his last three
games, but his lack of consistent targets (4,7,3,10 this season)
makes him a risky play in a tough matchup.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: In the season of the rookie, Leonard Fournette
as quietly been outstanding as Kareem Hunt continues to get the
majority of attention. The former LSU Tiger has scored a touchdown
in each of his first four NFL games, despite averaging a pedestrian
3.5 yards per carry on 81 attempts.
The way to beat the Steelers is on the ground, especially if
you have a subpar quarterback like Blake Bortles and a power running
game led by Fournette and Chris Ivory. The Vikings, Bears, and
Ravens all had success moving the ball on the ground against Pittsburgh,
with the lowly Browns as the only team to struggle in that area
against the Steelers this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has yet to throw for
more than three touchdowns or 300 yards in a game, as the Pittsburgh
passing offense continues to struggle. No other quarterback in
the league can boast having a top 10 offensive line and two consensus
top 10 fantasy skill position players, yet Big Ben continues to
not get it done. Perhaps age and a multitude of injuries are catching
up with the veteran quarterback.
Although he has averaged just over ten-more fantasy points at
home than on the road over the past four seasons, his matchup
this week against the Jaguars is not exactly a cake walk, as Jacksonville
has allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Antonio Brown will still get his targets and is a must-start in
all formats, but owners may be a bit disappointed in the final
stat line if he is shadowed by Jalen Ramsay. If you drafted Matavis
Bryant, you are undoubtedly aware of his history of scoring touchdowns
at home vs. away, making him a nice third wide receiver or flex
play.
As good as Jacksonville has been at stopping the pass, they have
been equally as poor at stopping the run. Through four games,
no other team has allowed more yards to opposing running backs.
Even the lowly Jets torched the Jaguars last week with 256 yards
and two scores combined between Elijah McGuire and Bilal Powell.
This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle, with both
teams looking to rely on their defenses and running games to win
the game. Not exactly the type of great passing matchup Brown,
Big Ben, and Bryant owners are salivating over.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: If you have any hopes of buying Le’Veon
Bell for less than a king’s ransom, I suggest making an
offer before this game. No other team has allowed more rushing
yards this season, and only the Rams have allowed more rushing
touchdowns. The Jaguars have a talented young defense, but they
have proven this season that they can be beaten on the ground.
Bell’s overall stat line does not jump out off the page
at you, with 324 yards and three touchdowns on 87 carries, but
his 41 total touches last week were fantasy gold. If you have
a dead roster spot and backup James Conner is available, it makes
sense to add him should Bell’s ridiculously high usage result
in an injury for Bell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Wide receiver Jordan Matthews will miss
at least a month of action after undergoing thumb surgery on Monday,
leaving quarterback Tyrod Taylor with rookie Zay Jones, and journeyman
veterans Brandon Tate and Andre Holmes as his only wide receiving
weapons. At 5.6 fantasy points per game, Matthews was not lighting
the world on fire in his first season with the Bills. But he was
the top wide receiver for Taylor, and his absence will certainly
be a hit to the offense. While it is possible that Jones may receive
an increase in target share, it is more likely that Taylor will
rely even more heavily on tight end Charles Clay, his most effective
and trusted receiving option.
The Bengals rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks
in 2017, with impressive performances against Joe Flacco, Deshaun
Watson, and DeShone Kizer. Aaron Rodgers picked apart the secondary
for 313 yards and three scores Week 3, otherwise, this defensive
unit would be ranked No. 1 against the pass.
On a positive note, the strengths of the Buffalo pass offense
fit well against the weaknesses of the Cincinnati defense, as
teams have had moderate success passing to tight ends and the
Bengals have allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals have limited opposing running
backs to a modest 3.45 yards per carry on 96 attempts, with Terrence
West posting the top RB performance against Cinci Week 1 (80 yards
and a score on 19 carries).
LeSean McCoy has been somewhat of a disappointment this season
considering the draft capital required to acquire the veteran
tailback. Shady has yet to score a touchdown in 2017, and his
3.2 YPC average is the lowest of his career. On a positive note,
he leads his team in receptions with 21 and should be very active
against a Bengals unit that can be beaten with passes out of the
backfield.
Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery each posted double-digit targets
against the Bengals, which could be a similar plan of attack for
offensive coordinator Rick Dennison.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a slow start to the season that included
a five-turnover game at home against Baltimore, Andy Dalton has
rebounded into a top 12 fantasy quarterback over the past two
weeks, highlighted by a four-touchdown performance against Cleveland
last Sunday.
The change at offensive coordinator has lit a spark in the Bengal
offense, as Dalton is now getting the ball out much quicker than
before and he is utilizing running backs in the passing game more.
Third down back Giovani Bernard has helped Dalton’s fantasy
numbers with a receiving touchdown in each of the past two games,
and will once again be a factor in the passing game this week
against a tough Buffalo defense that has allowed the fewest points
in 2017.
Dalton will face arguably his toughest matchup to date, as Buffalo
has allowed only one passing touchdown this season, and no opposing
quarterback has managed to throw for more than 260 yards in a
game. The Bills have forced three of the four quarterbacks faced
this season to throw two interceptions apiece, something that
has plagued Dalton at times in his career.
As always, A.J. Green is a must-start regardless of matchup due
to his supreme talent and the fact that he will likely receive
double-digit targets. No wide receiver has scored double-digit
fantasy points this season against the Bills. However, both Demaryius
Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders had solid yardage games against Buffalo,
and Julio Jones left last week’s game early with a back
injury.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The fantasy community rejoiced when Joe
Mixon took over as the lead back in from Jeremy Hill, as Mixon
is the more dynamic player and he looked primed to join Fournette,
Cook, and Hunt in the year of the rookie running back. 35 carries
and 91 yards later, Mixon looks more like the incumbent Hill and
less like the explosive tailback from Oklahoma.
Of the three running backs in the Cincinnati RBBC, Giovani Bernard
has been the most efficient and highest scoring this season. Although
no running back has topped the 80-yard plateau, three RB’s
have logged at least four receptions against a Bills defense that
has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to opposing backs.
You are starting Mixon, hoping for a touchdown in what could
be an ugly, low scoring game. Bernard will likely get five catches
out of the backfield, and a few change of pace carries, but all
expectations should be tempered in this less than stellar matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As the 30th ranked quarterback on our Week
5 rankings, it is safe to say that very few fantasy owners will
be starting journeyman veteran Josh McCown this week against the
Browns. But for owners in deep two-quarterback leagues, McCown’s
matchup against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fifth-most
points to opposing quarterbacks isn’t the worst option.
At 15.8 fantasy points per game through the first quarter of
the season, McCown is averaging less than one point per game less
than Derek Carr and has been more productive than Joe Flacco or
Jay Cutler. The Browns have allowed at least one top-24 wide receiver
in all four games this season, making Robby Anderson and Jermaine
Kearse interesting deep WR options for 12 and 14 team leagues.
The Browns pass rush gets a shot in the arm this week with the
return of first overall pick Myles Garrett, who missed the start
of the season with a high ankle sprain. Cleveland is tied for
20th in sacks with nine, while the Jets have allowed an average
of three sacks per game.
Perhaps the most attractive receiving play for the Jets is tight
end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, as the Browns have allowed a top-5
tight end in three of their four games, with Tyler Kroft and Jessie
James each scoring two touchdowns.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Week 4 was a coming out party for rookie
running back Elijah McGuire, who used the added workload from
Matt Forte’s absence to rush for 93 yards on 10 carries
against the Jags, including a 69-yard touchdown scamper. McGuire
and Bilal Powell combined for 256 yards and two scores against
a Jags team that has been surprisingly susceptible to the run.
The combo of McGuire and Powell may not have similar success
against a Browns team that has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher
on the year while limiting opposing backs to just over three yards
per carry. Yes, the Browns are 0-4 and are on pace to once again
land the first overall pick in the NFL draft. But their defense
is not as bad as some may think, as evident by the fact that they
have produced a league-high 50 plays that have ended with a loss
of yards or no gain.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie DeShone Kizer continues to post up
and down numbers befitting of a first-year quarterback learning
his craft in the NFL. The former Norte Dame QB has completed less
than 50% of his passes over the past three weeks, including a
dreadful 118-yard performance at home to the Bengals last Sunday.
Due to his limited weapons and inaccuracy throwing the ball, Kizer’s
fantasy value must be buoyed by rushing touchdowns to make him
worthy of a start in a two-QB league.
After starting the season with losses against the Bills and Raiders,
the Jets have improved across the board defensively, including
limiting opposing quarterbacks to less than 16 fantasy points
in each of their two home wins.
The only reliable pass-catching option for Kizer is running back
Duke Johnson who leads the team in receptions, targets, and yards.
Free agent bust Kenny Britt has been hit or miss, with 8 catches
for 121 yards and a score despite posting 23 targets in four games.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell continues to be a disappointment
with 134 yards on 46 attempts while failing to reach the end zone
in four games this season. There have been reports of Crow asking
for more touches, and head coach Hue Jackson has said multiple
times that he wants to focus more on running the ball, but negative
game scripts (Browns have yet to lead a game this year) have not
allowed the team rely on the ground game.
Perhaps a home matchup against the Jets will finally give Jackson
the ability to provide Crowell with more carries against a team
that has allowed the fourth-most points this season to opposing
RBs. This is without a doubt the best matchup of the season for
Crowell, and if he doesn’t produce in this game, he may
not be a usable asset going forward.
Duke Johnson continues to be an excellent low-end No.2 or high-end
flex play, with touchdowns in each of his last two games, and
15 receptions for 128 yards. Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy,
and Jalen Richard all had success catching the ball out of the
backfield against the Jets, making Johnson an attractive play
this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After failing to throw a passing touchdown
in two consecutive home games against the Bills and Saints, Cam
Newton exploded for 316 yards and four total touchdowns against
the Patriots last Sunday. It remains to be seen if Cam’s
big game against the Pats is a sign of his return to form from
offseason shoulder surgery, or just a result of the Patriots continuing
to allow elite performances to opposing quarterbacks.
Newton will face his toughest road opponent of the season with
a Lions defense that has held three of four opponents (Carson
Palmer, Eli Manning, and Case Keenum) below 20 fantasy points,
while not allowing more than two passing touchdowns in a game.
Detroit's defense was historically bad last season when they allowed
a completion percentage of just under 73% of passes, but they
have drastically improved and are no longer a secondary to target
in fantasy (61% completion rate through four games).
With Kelvin Benjamin limited with a knee injury and Greg Olsen
out with a broken foot, Devin Funchess has been the most productive
fantasy wide receiver for Carolina. At 8.4 points per game, Funchess
is averaging more points per game than Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate,
Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant. If Benjamin is shadowed by Darius
Slay on the outside as anticipated, look for Funchess to be a
primary weapon for Newton in the passing game.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Offensive coordinator Mike Shula continues
to get first-round pick Christian McCaffrey looks and carries
in the offense, but his 50 touches in his first four career NFL
games has resulted in a pedestrian 295 total yards and zero touchdowns.
Not exactly the type of production owners were expecting from
the dynamic college player from Stanford.
His backfield mate, Jonathan Stewart, has been equally disappointing
as the No. 33 ranked running back with 7.8 fantasy points per
game. With only one touchdown between the two players in 112 touches,
it is safe to say that dynamic duo in the Panther backfield has
been anything but dynamic.
Perhaps the fortunes of Stewart and McCaffrey will improve this
week as the Lions are tied for third in rushing touchdowns allowed
(3), with Devonta Freeman and Dalvin Cook each posting a touchdown
and double-digit points against Detroit. It should be noted that
all three starting linebackers for the Lions were listed on the
injury report for Wednesday, with Paul Worrliow expected to miss
a few weeks with a knee injury. Steve Longa was absent for personal
reasons after the death of his father, and rookie Jarrad Davis
was limited with a neck injury. If Davis is unable to play it
will certainly improve the prospects for both Stewart and McCaffrey.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford began the season white
hot with six touchdown passes and one interception against the
Cardinals and New York Giants. He has since cooled off dramatically
from a fantasy perspective, despite leading the Lions to a victory
on the road against the Vikings and a close loss at home against
the Falcons on a controversial final play of the game.
Like a flame-throwing young pitcher who learns how to actually
pitch later in his career instead of just throwing hard every
pitch, Stafford has evolved from a gun-slinging quarterback with
astronomical stats into an effective real-life QB who takes what
the defense gives him while limiting mistakes. His evolution is
great for Lions fans looking for the franchises’ first Super
Bowl title, but he lacks the upside he possessed early in his
career.
The Panthers have been excellent against average quarterbacks
Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor, but Drew Brees and Tom Brady picked
them apart over the past two games for 527 yards and five touchdowns.
Stafford falls in between the range of those four QBs, and should
have a solid, but not a great day on Sunday.
A critical aspect to the success of Stafford and the Lions offense
will be the health of guard T.J. Lang, right tackle Rick Wagner,
and center Travis Swanson. All three linemen managed limited practice
on Thursday and appear as they will play, but that could change
as we get closer to Sunday.
After a down day for both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate in last
week’s win over Minnesota, both players should rebound this
week. Four wide receivers have posted double-digit fantasy points
against the Panthers, with Pierre Garcon coming just 10 yards
short of the mark Week 1.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah posted his best game of
the season last week against Minnesota in what appeared to be
his most difficult matchup of the year. The former Nebraska Cornhusker
rushed for 94 yards on 20 carries, including an impressive touchdown
run on a rare goal-line carry. His 47.5% snap share is a concern,
but he ranks 10th in rushing yards and yards created while ranking
eleventh in rushing attempts.
Abdullah may find it tough to duplicate last week’s performance,
as the Panthers have been stout against the run, ranking 28th
in fantasy points allowed. No team has rushed for more than 100
yards in a game this season, and no individual player has topped
more than 56 yards in a game. LeSean McCoy managed nine carries
on 12 attempts, while Mark Ingram rushed for 56 yards on 14 carries.
After last week’s performance, it will be tough to bench
Abdullah, but I would be surprised to see him average 4.7 per
carry.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week I wrote about the pitfall of starting
Case Keenum as a flyer against the Lions, as his 369-yard, three-touchdown
game at home against Tampa Bay came against a Bucs team that was
missing half of their secondary to injury, making his 32.3 point
game fool’s gold. The journeyman QB came back crashing down
to early with a 16-30, 219 and zero touchdown game against the
Lions.
Aside from last week’s four-touchdown game to Aaron Rodgers,
the Bears defense has been surprisingly strong despite numerous
injuries to the linebacking corps. But a closer examination of
their stats reveals a team that has allowed four different wide
receivers to score double-digit fantasy points, highlighted by
Antonio Brown (10/110/1) and Jordy Nelson (4/75/2). Stefon Diggs
and Adam Theilen are must-start options, especially if Sam Bradford
can play. As of Thursday he has been limited in practice and looks
unlikely, but there is still a shot he plays.
Tight end Kyle Rudolph continues to be an afterthought in the
offense with Keenum under center, making him a risky play if Bradford
is not able to go. If you take out the flukey 2/128/1 line Austin
Hooper posted Week 1; the Bears have not allowed another tight
end to score a touchdown or reach double digits.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie sensation Dalvin Cook will miss
the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL last week against
the Lions. Veteran Latavius Murray and change of pace back Jerick
McKinnon will now assume the rushing duties for the Vikings. Cook
would have been an excellent start this week as the bell cow back,
as the Bears have allowed a rushing touchdown in all four of their
games. But with the duties spread between two or possibly three
running backs, and Latavius Murray admittedly still dealing with
pain in his foot, predicting how the points will be dispersed
is a difficult task.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The future is now for the Bears and Mitchell
Trubisky, with head coach John Fox announcing last week that the
second overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft will make his pro debut
against the Vikings on Monday Night Football. It will be a tall
order for the former North Carolina Tar Heel, as making your debut
before a national prime-time audience is a tough task, especially
against a Mike Zimmer led-defense. Trubisky may struggle, but
his mobility, arm strength, and accuracy will be an upgrade over
Mike Glennon and will eventually improve the fantasy value of
all the skill position players on the Vikings.
Despite facing four top 12 fantasy quarterbacks to start the
season, including Drew Brees on opening night, the Vikings rank
25h in fantasy points allowed to QB’s and should feast on
Trubisky and the bears on MNF.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: A change at quarterback leaves a ton of
question marks for the two-headed rushing attack for the Bears.
Will Trubisky lean on his RB’s in the passing game like
Glennon, or will he force the ball downfield more to wide receivers,
Kendall Wright and Deonte Thompson, thus reducing the number of
targets of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard? Conversely, a more potent
passing attack will force defenses like Minnesota to respect the
pass and not load the box, opening the door for Howard to return
to his rookie form.
With so many unanswerable questions regarding how the change
to Trubisky will affect the offense, it should be noted that regardless
of who is under center, the running game will have an uphill battle
against the No. 31 ranked defense in points allowed to RB’s.
Only the Denver Broncos have allowed fewer points to opposing
backs this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Seahawks offense was absolutely terrible
in their first two games of the season, but they’ve now
scored 73 total points over their past two contests. A lot of
that is because Russell Wilson is finally getting things done
as both a passer and as a runner. His six passing touchdowns and
668 passing yards in Weeks 3 and 4 are quite a bit higher than
his career average and there’s little reason to believe
that the Seahawks will suddenly stop relying on him to carry the
offense. Doug Baldwin was unfortunately taken away by the Colts
defense, but it’s also worth noting that he was dealing
with a bit of a groin injury that slowed him down.
He’s been practicing all week and should be good to go in
this contest against the Rams who themselves have allowed five
passing touchdowns over their past two contests against the 49ers
and Cowboys. In fact, their defense conceded 14 receptions to
wide receivers in each of those two games. One thing to keep an
eye on is that Jimmy Graham is becoming a significantly bigger
part of the offense recently and could be an important red zone
threat in this game as the Rams have given up a touchdown to a
tight end in back-to-back games. Another player to keep an eye
on in this one is Paul Richardson who has caught multiple passes
in every game this season and may finally be turning the corner
into becoming a fantasy-relevant player.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: With Chris Carson now on IR, the Seattle
backfield is back to being the chaotic three-headed dumpster monster
that it was when the season started. Pete Carroll has stated that
the team will split the rushing workload between Thomas Rawls
and Eddie Lacy while C.J. Prosise, who has missed quite a bit
of practice this week with an ankle injury, would presumably handle
the passing downs if he’s active. As of right now, this
is one of the worst rushing situations in the league as the offensive
line has been horrible and there’s no one who is likely
to touch the ball more than a dozen or so times, thus tremendously
limiting their upside. The frustrating thing is that this is arguably
the best possible matchup for a running back as the Rams have
been getting absolutely destroyed by opposing running games and
only one of them (Dallas) has really been good in other games.
Lacy is probably the best option if you absolutely have to start
one of these backs, but the risk is certainly very strong. The
matchup is great but the players are not great, especially if
Prosise is active.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Rams offense is finally starting to
click and there’s no question that Jared Goff’s improvements
have played a major role in the change we’ve seen in Los
Angeles. Goff has thrown for five passing touchdowns and no interceptions
over his past two games, running an efficient and effective offense.
What’s been difficult to predict is which of his receivers
are going to show up each week. After a huge Week 3 contest, Sammy
Watkins all but disappeared from the field in Week 4, catching
just one pass against a very beatable Dallas defense. Meanwhile,
Cooper Kupp caught five passes for 60 yards and a score but had
just 17 receiving yards the week before. In fact, the only receiver
who’s been very consistent in this offense has been running
back Todd Gurley who has now become a bit of a PPR monster in
addition to his heavy workload as a runner.
With Seattle’s secondary taking a bit of a step back so
far this season, there’s reason to believe that this matchup
for Goff won’t be completely terrible. He’s still
extremely risky and it’d be wise to look elsewhere for more
upside if you can, but Goff wouldn’t be a bad option in
two-QB formats. As far as receivers go, on paper this looks like
another decent matchup for Kupp who will almost exclusively run
out of the slot, avoiding cornerback Richard Sherman. Watkins
is a player who you could also consider as a Flex, but his floor
is fairly low in this one, so be prepared to take a goose egg
if things don’t go well.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley was one of the most disrespected
players in the league heading into this season and he’s
proving that with a huge workload in this new offense, he can
get back to producing RB1 numbers. His contributions in the passing
game are among the best in the league and while he won’t
likely approach the 80-plus catch season that he’s on pace
for, it makes sense to believe that he’ll continue to catch
at least a few passes per game. The other positive thing is that
while the Seahawks offense has looked good in recent weeks, their
offensive line could have their hands full which could lead to
a low-scoring contest. That’d play right into Gurley’s
hand as fantasy producer as he should be in line to touch the
ball 20-plus times in this game, thus making him an RB1 even in
what appears to be a difficult on-paper matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Things have gone from bad to worse in the
Baltimore offense as Joe Flacco has now thrown six interceptions
on the season with only four touchdowns. He’s also thrown
for an average of just 150 passing yards per game against defenses
that really aren’t very good. There are plenty of reasons
for this disaster but one thing is for sure - this is a passing
game to avoid until we see things improve. What’s unfortunate
is that the Ravens do have a great matchup this week as they play
against an Oakland pass defense that has not yet intercepted a
pass while allowing six passing touchdowns this season. Still,
the only player in this passing game who’s even worth a
look at the moment is tight end Ben Watson who has at least put
up respectable TE1 numbers in three straight contests. The Raiders
themselves have given up touchdowns in back-to-back weeks to the
position so you could do worse if you’re in a bind at tight
end this week.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Another by-committee backfield situation,
this time in Baltimore, has fantasy owners scratching their heads
as we look toward Week 5. The Ravens head on the road to Oakland
but with Buck Allen, Terrance West and Alex Collins all getting
carries a week ago, there’s a lot of confusion for fantasy
purposes. There’s little question that Collins was the most
productive of the bunch this past week but it’s also worth
noting that he was significantly out-snapped by Allen who is also
the team’s pass-catching back, giving him extra value in
PPR formats and thus a higher floor than the other players in
this backfield. A road game across the country would normally
indicate a not-so-great matchup for a struggling offense, but
the Raiders themselves are in a tough spot offensively, which
could mean a low-scoring game here and thus a better opportunity
for the Ravens running game. Collins has been a hot pick up on
waivers this week, but this is still Allen’s backfield for
the time being.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another struggling offense, the Raiders
are not in great shape heading into this week’s contest
against the Ravens as they will be without quarterback Derek Carr.
The team was not putting together consistent drives even with
Carr behind center so it’s hard to believe that EJ Manuel
is suddenly going to turn things in the right direction. Perhaps
the biggest problem has been the poor play of what has previously
been a great offensive line. That doesn’t bode well for
Manuel who has struggled to deal with pressure throughout his
career. Obviously this negatively affects the team’s top
two receiving options, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who
go from being borderline WR1’s down to just being Flex options
or WR3’s, especially in what is a tough matchup against
a good Baltimore secondary. Jared Cook is probably the only player
in this passing game who’s more than a complete flier at
his position and even he hasn’t caught more than five passes
in a game yet this season.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: The Marshawn Lynch experiment has been
a major failure through the first quarter of the season. Lynch
has rushed for just 151 yards on the season. Worse yet, things
seem to be getting worse as he’s failed to rush for even
20 yards in each of his past two games. Few fantasy owners expected
Lynch to put up huge yardage but the overwhelming opinion was
that he’d get into the end zone enough to satisfy fantasy
owners. Unfortunately he’s only done that once so far, thus
making him a huge fantasy bust. There’s some hope that the
Raiders will lean heavily on Lynch due to EJ Manuel being behind
center, but the Ravens defense is going to be looking for that.
They’ll stack the box and should shut down Lynch. Expect
a decent sized workload in this game but don’t look for
a huge fantasy day.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers is still not playing well,
but he did rebound nicely for fantasy purposes from his pathetic
three point effort in Week 3. Rivers lit up an ineffective Eagles
secondary for 347 yards and two touchdowns while surprisingly,
not turning the ball over. With the running game ineffective,
Rivers had to throw to keep the Chargers in it. And throw he did
– mostly to his top two targets, Keenan Allen and Tyrell
Williams. Allen still dominates targets over Williams as Rivers
almost always looks for Allen first unless the play is downfield
(more on that in a moment). Allen saw 11 targets, catching five
for 138 yards. Williams only saw six targets, but was way more
efficient, also catching five for 115 yards, including a 75-yard
bomb for a touchdown.
Even though the Chargers lost, it is clear this passing game
fares much better when Rivers focuses on Allen and Williams and
not afterthoughts like Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman. Antonio
Gates and Hunter Henry continue to sap each other’s value.
The reality is Gates just needs to go away. Henry is such an athletic
specimen at the position. He has top five upside if Gates would
allow it. But once again, when Father Time came to Antonio Gates
on Sunday, he responded the same way he has every week for the
past five years: “Not today.”
There’s always concern regarding a west coast team playing
a 1:00 east coast game so it would not surprise me to see Rivers
completely flop this week. With that being said, the Giants defense
has been underwhelming thus far. Jameis Winston just threw for
332 yards and three touchdowns against them and the Giants are
one of just four teams to not record an interception. While I
think that changes this week, the matchup isn’t as daunting
as it once appeared. Janoris Jenkins is unlikely to chase Allen
into the slot so Williams will probably draw the Giants best cover
corner.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon averaged 3.5 ypc as a rookie
and 3.9 ypc as a sophomore. In his third season with the best
offensive line he’s played behind (not that it is good,
just that it’s better than the last two years), Gordon is
averaging 3.1 ypc. We can’t blame the line entirely as Gordon
ranks 31st in the league in yards created. His highest rushing
total on the season is 79 yards. He’s been entirely touchdown
dependent and last week, we saw what happens when he doesn’t
get one. Gordon touched the ball a season low 11 times in a game
that was competitive throughout. He was still on the field for
73% of the snaps however, he just wasn’t getting the ball.
The Giants have struggled defending the run this season. They
let Jacquizz Rodgers average 5.2 ypc last week. Regardless, Gordon
simply isn’t that good of a runner and his entire career
has been predicated on volume. I do think the volume returns this
week and there’s no way he’s anything worse than an
RB2, but the elite RB1 fantasy owners thought they were getting
simply may not exist.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants have secretly become “Chargers
east” with their knack for losing games in spectacular fashion.
The problem with the Giants extends far beyond the personnel because
they actually have a ton of talent. Eli Manning is still not done.
He proved that again last week with his 288-yard, two-touchdown,
no interception effort combined with channeling his inner Michael
Vick for a 14-yard scamper into the end zone. Manning can still
play and he has two incredible weapons in Odell Beckham and Evan
Engram. Beckham’s sub 50% catch rate last week (seven of
15 targets caught) is less than ideal, but for fantasy purposes,
that type of volume is what we want. The concerns over Brandon
Marshall stealing some of Beckham’s usage were unfounded
as Marshall is so completely washed, I’m not sure if he
belongs in the NFL at all anymore. Engram is clearly the second
best pass catcher on this team. He saw 11 targets last week and
has actually been one of the more consistent TEs in a season where
there are about three reliable players at the position. Engram
is treated like a WR so for fantasy purposes, he’s kind
of like a WR3 that you can put at the TE slot.
The Chargers secondary is not the same without Jason Verrett
so Beckham and Engram should have no trouble. Sterling Shepard
may even have a relevant day as well. He caught all five of his
targets last week for 54 yards and is definitely someone that
should be kept on benches. He really should be playing in two
receiver sets ahead of Marshall (then again, Roger Lewis should
be playing over Marshall as well). This game should be high scoring
and a good bet for fantasy production.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Ben McAdoo finally had his hand forced.
Orleans Darkwa was inactive and Paul Perkins took a shot to the
ribs, forcing him from last week’s game. McAdoo had no choice
but to roll with rookie Wayne Gallman. The Clemson product is
not a particularly impressive player but he certainly belongs
in the NFL, which is more than I can say about Perkins. Gallman
is the best they’ve got if they are not going to push Shane
Vereen as their feature back (which is a reality I’ve learned
to accept is never going to happen). Gallman only managed 42 yards
on 11 carries, but added eight yards on two receptions and a touchdown.
The 3.8 ypc Gallman averaged in his limited action is double that
of Perkins.
I tentatively expect Perkins back this week, but after practicing
Wednesday, he was unable to practice Thursday. If he does not
return to at least a limited practice on Friday, it’s probably
safe to assume he’s not going to play. If he does, we can
only hope that he does not see the field at all. Gallman deserves
a chance to be the guy for the Giants and fantasy owners are hoping
he gets the shot as he was a hot pickup this week, especially
for those people that were unable to secure Latavius Murray. The
Chargers have been getting gashed on the ground, allowing the
second most rushing yards in the league. The Giants still can’t
block, but if Gallman can see 15 touches, he should be able to
return starter worthy value.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This passing game section would be really
short if Marcus Mariota were already ruled out. If Matt Cassel
is starting, avoid everyone. Despite only playing half a game
last week, Cassel managed to give the ball to the other team three
times in relief of an injured Mariota. While Mariota’s hamstring
injury does not seem overly serious given that he played through
it for a bit, for a player that relies on his legs, if he’s
constrained at all, it’s probably best to sit this one out,
which I think is the most likely scenario. If Mariota does play,
he will be at far less than 100% and likely unable to use his
mobility, which is what makes him a great fantasy QB. Rishard
Matthews and Delanie Walker are the most important pass catchers
for the Titans. They are both solid plays with Mariota, but should
remain on your bench if Cassel starts.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners were justifiably skittish
on DeMarco Murray’s 2017 fantasy prospects knowing the beast
that lurks behind him. However, it hasn’t been Derrick Henry’s
fault that Murray has been a bust through a quarter of the season.
Outside of one 75-yard touchdown against Seattle, Murray has averaged
3.4 ypc. That single run jumped his ypc 1.7 yards. Henry has touched
the ball 40 times this season, only eight fewer times than Murray,
but Murray also missed a chunk of Week 2. Murray’s volume
is down and so is his efficiency. The Dolphins spent last week
giving up reception after reception to Alvin Kamara. Murray is
not the receiver that Kamara is, but Murray is a very capable
pass catcher. He may need that ability to produce this week and
could get the volume as the Titans will do everything they can
to hide Cassel. Unfortunately, the touchdown upside won’t
be there without Mariota. Murray has become an incredibly risky
fantasy bet while Henry is still unstartable.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Do you know who definitely doesn’t
care about football? Jay Cutler. By now we’ve all seen the
video of Cutler literally standing still with his hands on his
hips while his team runs a wildcat play. That’s a microcosm
of Cutler’s entire season. The ghost of Jay Cutler has essentially
managed zero points against the Jets and the Saints (excluding
his buzzer touchdown pass to DeVante Parker Week 3). His highest
passing yardage total was 230 in Week 2 against the Chargers.
He’s thrown just two touchdowns in three games and thrown
two interceptions.
This is another good matchup against a team that just got walloped
by Deshaun Watson, but the Dolphins just had two great matchups
against the Saints and Jets and it didn’t matter. Jarvis
Landry’s floor remains quite high. Six catches for 40 yards
is not great, but it’s pretty much the worst you can expect
from Landry. He has a double digit floor in PPR leagues. DeVante
Parker has been surprisingly consistent with catch totals of four,
eight, and six in his first three games, finishing between 69
and 85 yards in all of them. He’s settling in as a nice
WR3 with WR2 upside. It’s hard to use the word upside with
anyone associated with Cutler, but even if Cutler completes only
15 passes in a game, Parker and Landry should see most of them.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi does not look right. He does
not appear to be at risk of missing any games with his seemingly
endless knee issue, but if that’s not affecting him, something
else is. After his 28-122 Week 1 performance, Ajayi has taken
23 carries for just 62 yards over his last two games. The Titans
are coming off a week where they made Lamar Miller actually look
like a real NFL running back, which is hard to do. This is a great
“get right” spot for Ajayi. But, not to sound like
a broken record, the Jets and Saints weren’t exactly imposing
foes either. At this point, you’re starting Ajayi based
on the name and the expected usage, but you have to temper expectations.
He has the talent to turn it around at any moment, but I can’t
help but wonder if he isn’t far more injured than he’s
letting on. You can’t bench him so you just have to hope
he figures it out soon.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Playing on a short week, the Cardinals offense
sputtered against the 49ers in Week 4. It was a war of field goals
until the very end when Carson Palmer hit the greatest overtime
player in my lifetime, the ageless wonder Larry Fitzgerald, for
the walkoff touchdown. Prior to that point, Palmer, despite throwing
51 times, barely even acknowledged Fitzgerald’s existence
on the field. Jaron Brown saw 12 targets, Andre Ellington saw
14 targets while Fitz only saw seven. It’s surprising given
that the 49ers do not have a great pass defense so it was not
like they were locking down Fitz who hhad just come off a 13 catch,
149-yard game.
After looking every bit his age in Week 1, Palmer has bounced
back and become a viable fantasy QB. West coast teams playing
1:00 pm east coast games is never a good spot, but facing the
Eagles’ secondary has done wonders for opposing passing
games. The Eagles got ripped to shreds by Keenan Allen and Tyrell
Williams last week with the two combining for 10 receptions for
243 yards. The matchup is a promising one for Fitzgerald and whichever
other WR Palmer decides to feature this week (could be Jaron Brown,
could be John Brown, could be J.J. Nelson).
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: In the absence of David Johnson, there
is no running game, but rather a short passing game in lieu of
a running game. Chris Johnson is reminding everyone why the Cardinals
cut him in the preseason – 13 carries for 32 yards last
week, which is right in line with his season average of 2.6 ypc.
The only relevant Cardinals back is Andre Ellington due to his
passing game involvement. Ellington only carried the ball five
times last week, but he caught nine passes for 86 yards, an improvement
on his already impressive five catches for 59 yards from the previous
week. Ellington now has 19 receptions on the season and looks
to be what we hoped Theo Riddick was going to be in Detroit. Ellington
is a high floor PPR flex option that becomes an RB2 if he scores.
He should be owned in all leagues and with bye weeks starting
up, and is a viable starting option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz spent last week game managing,
attempting just 31 passes for the second consecutive week. Zach
Ertz continues to be Wentz’s top target, much to the chagrin
of Alshon Jeffery owners, but Jeffery did find the end zone for
the second time this season last week. The problem with Jeffrey
is he’s become entirely touchdown dependent. His 12.6 yards
per reception is the lowest of his career and he’s only
posted one quality fantasy performance in the first quarter of
the season (his 7-92-1 effort in Week 2). The touchdown last week
salvaged his fantasy week, but it doesn’t erase the fact
that he only caught three of six targets for 29 yards. Ertz, on
the other hand, has been a TE1 every week to start the season.
In a year where the state of the TE is embarrassingly poor, Ertz
has been the only stable producer (Gronk failed Week 1 and Kelce
failed Week 3). It’s clear he is Wentz’s favorite
target and while Arizona has been stingy against the TE, they
are missing some pieces at linebacker. Plus, Ertz is an athletic
freak. He is one of just a handful of every week set it and forget
it options at the position. A quick word on Nelson Agholor –
I would say I hate to say I told you so, but I don’t hate
doing it – I told you so. I will admit Agholor has shown
me enough to back off my stance that he shouldn’t be in
the NFL, but he is by no means a starting caliber WR either in
real life or in fantasy.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Who would’ve thought that the Eagles
would be carried by their running game the week after Darren Sproles
was lost for the season? Alright, it’s time for me to really
eat some crow here. I have spent the last few months disparaging
LeGarrette Blount and he really stuck it to me with his performance
against the Chargers. In a game where waiver darling Wendell Smallwood
(10-34-1) and Corey Clement (10-30-1) could not get anything going
on the ground, LGB rattled off 136 yards on his 16 carries. Just
to be clear, Blount did not suddenly become a talented running
back or a featured back. He is still the same guy that didn’t
see a carry in Week 2. However, I must admit the reality of the
situation, which is that in Weeks 1, 3, and 4, Blount had either
100+ yards or a touchdown and was useful in fantasy. As much as
it pains me to admit defeat, Blount is worth owning as an RB3.
Smallwood has yet to practice as of Thursday. His absence would
increase Blount’s value and possibly make Clement a dart
throw flex play as well. Keep an eye on the injury reports, as
always.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers had a very weird game last
Thursday night in the Packers demolition of the Bears. Rodgers’
touchdown count has increased by exactly one every game this season,
but up until Week 4, he had thrown for 300 yards in every game.
He didn’t even get to 200 against the Bears. Rodgers still
had a monster fantasy day because of the four touchdowns and remains
a top two weekly option at the position.
Excluding the game he left in the first quarter, Jordy Nelson
has scored in every game this season. He has five touchdowns in
three games. His yardage totals haven’t gotten there yet
as he has yet to eclipse 79 yards, but the fantasy production
is there.
Randall Cobb has been a pleasant surprise as well. He also missed
a game, but otherwise has 60 yards or a touchdown in every game.
His role could be increased this week if Davante Adams is unable
to clear the concussion protocol after Danny Trevathan committed
such a heinous and unnecessary hit on Adams that I would not have
been upset if he was suspended for the entire season. Amazingly,
Adams “escaped” (and I use that term generously) with
just a concussion. While concussions are anything but minor, the
fact that Adams avoided any neck/spine injuries is incredible.
Somehow, he might actually play this week. Adams has been inconsistent
this season, alternating bad games with good ones based upon whether
he scores. If Adams is able to go, he will be a strong play against
a Cowboys defense that just got shredded by the Rams.
Nelson, Adams, and Cobb are all excellent options this week as
there will be plenty of offense to go around. Martellus Bennett
has been the odd man out in the Packers offense and I wouldn’t
really expect that to change. He will have a big game at some
point this season, but I don’t foresee him every being a
trustworthy option.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers RB situation is just like
the Giants, except that it will only be for one week and all their
RBs aren’t terrible. What I mean is it’s a mess. Ty
Montgomery broke a few ribs and Jamaal Williams twisted his knee
in the Packers win over the Bears. Aaron Jones handled the majority
of the RB work in their absence and was poised to be the primary
back this week. That is, until both Montgomery and Williams returned
to practice Wednesday. The problem is that we have no idea how
injured either of them really are nor to what extent they will
be used Sunday, if active.
Montgomery has been one of the league’s few three down
workhorses. Despite being ineffective on the ground, Montgomery’s
fantasy production has been excellent due to his pass catching
acumen. He totaled reception counts of four, six, and eight through
his first three games. If Montgomery plays this week, that’s
probably worst case scenario for fantasy owners. I can’t
imagine he will be as effective playing with multiple broken ribs.
He is unlikely to see a full workload and will be at risk to exit
the game after one hit in the wrong spot at any moment. He would
also make it impossible to start either of the Packers rookie
RBs. If the Packers do the smart thing and hold Montgomery out
(which I think they will), Williams and Jones would form a committee.
I anticipate one of them having a fantasy relevant day, but predicting
which one will be impossible. The Packers are likely to throw
a lot so avoid this backfield if you can until the injury situation
clears up.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott is really good at football.
I know the Cowboys lost last week, but I really do believe they
just lost to another really good team. Prescott now has multiple
touchdowns in three consecutive games and is adding exactly three
rushing attempts per game. Prescott is going to be an elite QB1
for years to come.
Unfortunately, I do not think he will take Dez Bryant with him
to the top. Bryant hasn’t been an elite WR since 2014 and
I see no signs of that changing. He caught five passes for 98
yards last week, but he still did not play well. His 40% catch
rate is simply unacceptable. He still has the elite measurables
and can go up and get it with the best of them, but he’s
been remarkably inefficient for some time now (40 targets, 16
catches). Bryant is still viewed in the highest regard and you
will frequently see him in the top 12 of weekly rankings however,
he’s way too inconsistent and inefficient to justify it.
This game will have a lot of points and Bryant should have plenty
of opportunities. He could very well post a 100-yard, two-touchdown
game. Obviously you’re not benching him, but I can’t
endorse heading into this game thinking that Bryant can carry
your WR corps.
Jason Witten has joined Cole Beasley in irrelevance. He’s
caught just one pass each of the last two weeks. No one outside
of the big three on this team are worth starting.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Even taking out Ezekiel Elliott’s
nine carry, eight-yard debacle against Denver, he hasn’t
been as effective or as efficient as his rookie year. Zeke is
averaging 4.0 ypc, but is still an elite RB1 due to his touchdown
scoring and increased usage in the passing game. After catching
just 32 passes in 2016, Elliott already has half that number in
a quarter of the season. He remains a top three weekly play in
all favorable matchups such as this one. While the Packers are
only allowing 4.2 ypc to opposing rushers, they have only faced
one team with a formidable running game, that being the Falcons
in Week 2. Elliott should have no trouble reaching high end RB1
numbers this week.