Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s certainly not looking like an
all-pro yet but Jared Goff might finally be coming into his own
as an NFL-caliber quarterback. The former No.1 overall pick has
thrown for 530 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his first two
games which is no great feat but it’s better than what we
saw out of him in 2016. While Goff has been improved, it hasn’t
exactly translated into fantasy success for his receivers. Even
Cooper Kupp, who looked good in his NFL debut in Week 1, saw just
six targets in Week 2 and while that led the team, it’s
certainly not enough for a possession-type receiver like Kupp
to be useful for fantasy purposes. Sammy Watkins, who is still
likely learning the offense, was targeted just twice in Week 2,
both of which he caught but for only 30 yards. Robert Woods currently
leads the Rams receivers in snaps (90) through the first two games
but has been targeted just nine times and has not done much with
his opportunities. Young tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee
have both had moments but with only six total receptions between
the two of them, it’s easy to just completely disregard
them in anything other than deep dynasty formats. The Rams offense
is simply too low-powered to generate many fantasy opportunities
and with Goff spreading the ball around as evenly as he is, the
scoring potential just isn’t very high for any receiver
in this offense.
This week they’ll be up against a 49ers defense that has
held each of their first two opponents to fewer than 200 total
passing yards. While Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have both struggled
early this season, it’s hard to believe that Jared Goff
is suddenly going to break through and air the ball out against
this San Francisco defense. Goff threw for just 90 yards and one
touchdown with two interceptions in his only game against the
49ers in 2016 and the unit looks to be improved this season. Avoid
him unless you’re in deep two-QB or SuperFlex formats.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: It’s
been this way since he first broke out as a rookie, but there’s
no question right now that the Rams offense is centered around
running back Todd Gurley. Gurley has touched the ball 43 times
in two games, collecting 232 total yards and three total touchdowns.
That type of usage should continue again this week as he goes
up against a San Francisco defense that, while improved, is still
not spectacular. The 49ers offense has not shown the ability to
put points on the board so far this season so that should lead
to a positive game script for Gurley who could be in line for
another 20-25 touch game with a good opportunity to get into the
end zone. Gurley is an RB1 in matchups like this and should continue
to be a high-end RB2 at worst even in difficult matchups as long
as he continues to touch the ball as often as he is.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming into the season there was a real
reason to believe that a move to Brian Hoyer could be an upgrade
for the San Francisco quarterback situation. However, after two
games, there are fantasy owners who are already pressing the panic
button on Hoyer and the entire San Francisco passing game. Hoyer
has been nothing short of terrible, failing to throw a single
touchdown in either contest while throwing turning the ball over
three times. Granted, one of those games was against the vaunted
Seahawks defense in Seattle, but still – this offense is
in bad shape right now.
Pierre Garcon is really the only player in this passing game who’s
even worth considering for fantasy purposes as he leads the team
with 15 targets through two games and has been by far the most
efficient pass catcher on the team. However, this week he’ll
be up against a Los Angeles Rams secondary that held a much better
Washington passing game to just 179 passing yards and a touchdown
in Week 2. Garcon is usable in PPR formats but stay away from
everyone else for the time being.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Much like
the Rams offense, there is little question that – at least
as of now – the 49ers offense will go as their running game
goes. Carlos Hyde is the focal point of the offense and has already
accumulated 220 total yards in his first two contests. That’s
particularly impressive considering that the 49ers have not yet
scored a single touchdown this season. Part of the reason for
his production has been his increased usage in the passing game.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is well known for using his running backs
in the passing game and Hyde is already reaping the benefits.
Through two games, Hyde has made nine receptions on 12 targets
– a pace of six targets per game. By comparison, he was
targeted just over 2.5 times per game in 2016. Needless to say,
Hyde’s increased usage will be a huge benefit for those
in PPR formats as he now becomes a viable option even in games
when the 49ers are likely to fall behind. We should expect this
week’s game against the Rams to be a low-scoring affair
but Hyde will be a major part of whatever the 49ers decide to
do on offense. He’s a low-end RB1 in this matchup and could
be the first 49er to get into the end zone this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: No one would’ve put money on Alex
Smith being the top-scoring fantasy football quarterback after
the first two weeks of the season, but the “game manager”
has been far more so far this season. Smith has been putting up
shockingly good numbers on his own, but perhaps more importantly
has been his ability to get the ball to his top targets in the
passing game. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill (14) and tight end Travis
Kelce (17) lead the team by a wide margin in targets and both
players have been impressively efficient. It’s not often
that both players are going to put up big numbers in what is still
a run-first and protect-the-ball offense, but they’re among
the most exciting players at their positions and need to be started
in almost all formats. With Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett
still not practicing, it appears that cornerback Casey Heyward
could be assigned to shadow Hill in this contest. Heyward is one
of the better lockdown corners in the league which could lead
to fewer opportunities for Hill, but his upside is still there.
Kelce, on the other hand, figures to be the main target in the
passing game this week and could see a 10-plus target game, making
him one of the premiere options at the position this week.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: With Alex
Smith leading all quarterbacks in scoring, it’d make sense
if the Chiefs running game wasn’t particularly effective.
However, the reality is actually the complete opposite –
the Kansas City rushing attack and running back Kareem Hunt has
not only been good, it’s been great. Hunt leads all players
in fantasy scoring – including quarterbacks – through
two weeks of his rookie season. Hunt has touched the ball 38 times
for 355 total yards and a whopping five touchdowns. His efficiency
in the passing game has been unsustainably good but the workload
and the overall effectiveness of the Kansas City offense is still
very inspiring. The Chargers are giving up the fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing running backs but both the Broncos
and Dolphins ran for well over 100 yards against them. Hunt figures
to be heavily involved yet again this week and has to be one of
the top running back plays until he proves otherwise.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With relatively healthy options to pass
to for the first time in what seems like years, Philip Rivers
has once again established himself as a QB1 for fantasy purposes.
Rivers has produced about 17 fantasy points in each of his first
two games, including a game against the vaunted “no fly
zone” in Denver. Keenan Allen currently leads the team in
targets (20), receptions (14) and receiving yards (135), quickly
reestablishing himself as the top pass catching option in this
offense. Tyrell Williams is off to a bit of a slow start but his
9 receptions on 11 targets and his team-leading 107 snaps at WR
does indicate that better days are on the horizon. Tight end Antonio
Gates became the NFL’s all-time leading scorer at the tight
end position with his touchdown in Week 2, but he actually fell
slightly behind Hunter Henry in total snaps in Week 2. Look for
that trend to continue throughout the season, but the two players
will likely split snaps for the most part in the short term, making
them risky options for fantasy purposes.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Rushing for
13 yards on nine carries is normally a disastrous result for fantasy
running backs, but Los Angeles’ Melvin Gordon was able to
salvage what was an ugly performance on the ground by getting
into the end zone and catching seven passes for 65 yards. Gordon
was a good pass catching back in 2016 but his 12 receptions over
the first two weeks of the season are making fantasy owners wonder
why they didn’t have him ranked even higher this preseason.
The overall usage continues to be extremely high as Gordon essentially
has no competition whatsoever in the backfield and he’s
about as matchup-proof as possible. The Chiefs did do a great
job of shutting down the Eagles running backs in Week 2 but they
were run over for three touchdowns by Mike Gillislee in Week 1,
so there are definitely fantasy points that can be had against
this defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For all the Cowboys struggles in Week 2
against the Broncos, quarterback Dak Prescott was still able to
give fantasy owners a decent start for the second straight week.
His two interceptions were probably fewer than he should have
thrown given the circumstances and his two touchdowns were at
least somewhat encouraging. What’s concerning going into
this weekend’s game against the Cardinals is that Prescott
appeared to be rolled up on while being tackled on a run and his
ankle has been giving him some problems throughout the week in
practice. Prescott is still fully expected to play but limited
mobility could also limit Prescott’s fantasy value in what
is a difficult matchup on paper. The Cardinals will likely deploy
cornerback Patrick Peterson to shadow Dez Bryant in what is yet
again an extraordinarily difficult matchup for the receiver. Bryant
has had his struggles, including dropped passes, but his target
share has been tremendous and he’s one of the NFL’s
most heavily-targeted receivers in the end zone which gives him
huge upside even in difficult matchups. Perhaps the most surprising
player in the entire Cowboys offense has been veteran tight end
Jason Witten who actually leads all tight ends in scoring at the
moment, and has already made 17 receptions. He should continue
to be a consistent source of low-end TE1 fantasy points even against
good defenses like Arizona’s.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott’s
struggles against the Broncos have become a major source of conversation
within the fantasy community, but one thing’s for sure –
the Cowboys are going to do everything they can to make sure that
never happens again. Elliott’s eight rushing yards on nine
attempts was by far the worst performance of his career but it’s
still just one game, on the road against a very good Denver defense.
The Cardinals defense is nothing to overlook but they’ve
gone up against two of the worst rushing offenses in the league
to start the season in Detroit and Indianapolis, so their numbers
are a bit inflated. With Prescott hobbled a bit with an ankle
injury, look for the Cowboys to get back to their bread and butter
– running the football. It would be surprising if Elliott
does not touch the ball 20 times in this game, so he’s a
pretty safe option even in what could be a somewhat difficult
matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer will be one of the hotter
streaming options at the quarterback position this week as he
goes up against a Dallas Cowboys defense that gave up a ridiculous
four touchdown passes to Trevor Siemian in Week 2. The Cowboys
looked completely incapable of stopping anything that the Broncos
wanted to do and that bodes well for a struggling Cardinals offense
that is still looking to find its identity without running back
David Johnson. The team has seen some impressive things out of
wide receiver J.J. Nelson who has scored in each of the Cardinals’
first two games this season, including an impressive five-catch,
120-yard performance in Week 2 against the Colts. Nelson is one
of the top waiver wire additions this week due to his big play
ability, but it’s worth noting that he’s seeing about
the same number of snaps and targets as Jaron Brown and significantly
fewer than Larry Fitzgerald. Nelson will continue to have big
plays here and there but his small frame is not exactly designed
to withstand a huge target share on a week-to-week basis. Still,
in the short-term, this is an excellent matchup for Nelson, Fitzgerald,
Brown and the whole Cardinals passing game. The Cowboys secondary
is in shambles right now and there’s little reason to believe
that they’re suddenly going to make huge improvements.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: We got our
first glimpse of the David Johnson-less Cardinals running in Week
2 and unfortunately it appears that we’re in a full blown
committee situation. Kerwynn Williams and Chris Johnson split
most of the work on rushing downs but it was actually Andre Ellington
who led the team with 30 snaps, which he only converted into 11
rushing yards and three receptions for 12 yards. Ellington appears
to be the passing down back but with head coach Bruce Arians refusing
to name a starter but hinting at a bigger workload for Chris Johnson
heading into Week 3, there is belief that CJ?K may have played
himself into a bigger role. The Cowboys run defense didn’t
look good against the Broncos but they did hold the Giants to
30 rushing yards in Week 1, so chances are that they’re
not terrible against the run. Don’t bother with the Arizona
backfield until we get a better idea of what they’re going
to do going forward.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The transition from Kyle Shanahan to Steve
Sarkisian as offensive coordinator has started off well for an
Atlanta Falcons team that ranks eighth in total yards and seventh
in total points through the first two weeks of the season. With
wins over the Bears Week 1 and a lopsided victory at home against
the Green Bay Packers, the Falcons sit tied atop the NFC South
with the Carolina Panthers.
From a fantasy perspective, the passing offense for the Falcons
has yet to live up to expectations. A negative game script against
the Packers fueled by a defensive score forced Atlanta to a run-heavy
second half, and the team's success running the ball in the red
zone with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman has limited Ryan to
just two passing touchdowns this season. Also, the popular narrative
of Sarkisian looking to target Julio Jones more in the red zone
has yet to translate to touchdowns.
The Detroit pass defense that ranked near the bottom in nearly
every statistical category last year has been surprisingly effective
in 2017, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just two passing touchdowns,
while intercepting four passes. They will face their toughest
matchup of the season with the Falcons balanced passing attack,
especially Atlanta’s ability to stretch the field with Taylor
Gabriel and Julio Jones.
Jones ranks fourth in the league in receiving yards (174) but
has yet to score a touchdown while receiving a surprisingly low
number of targets (14). Top cornerback Darius Slay will be given
the task of shutting down Jones, although Slay does not always
shadow the number one wideout of the opposition.
A big reason for the early success of the Lions has been their
ability to pressure and sack the quarterback, especially Eli Manning
behind a terrible New York Giants offensive line. If the Alex
Mack-led offensive line for the Falcons can keep Matt Ryan’s
jersey clean, the Falcons should be able to move the ball and
score points against Detroit. If Ziggy Ansah and the Lions pass
rush creates havoc in the backfield similar to what they have
done in their first two games, Ryan and the Falcons could be in
for a long day.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: The tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin
Coleman is once again a potent 1-2 punch for the Falcons, with
Freeman leading the duo in attempts (31), yards (121), and touchdowns
(3). Freeman’s 65 red zone touches in the red zone touches
since the start of the 2016 season is the second-most in the NFL,
making him an elite RB option in all formats.
Despite only 14 carries and six receptions, Coleman is averaging
more points per game than Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram, Le’Veon
Bell, and Jordan Howard. Before leaving with a wrist injury, David
Johnson was held in check by the Lions rush defense to the turn
of 23 yards on 11 carries. However, Johnson did have success in
the short passing game with six catches for 68 yards, and both
Falcons running backs are skilled pass catchers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is tied with Trevor Siemian
for the league lead with six passing touchdowns over the first
two games of the year, highlighted by his four-touchdown performance
Week 1 against the Cardinals. The addition of rookie Kenny Golladay
gives Stafford a second deep threat along with Marvin Jones, and
another big red zone threat to target with fades and jump ball
throws.
With 14 receptions for 132 yards on 16 targets, Golden Tate continues
to be a PPR beast as Stafford’s favorite underneath and
short yardage target. Over the past two seasons, the Falcons have
been one of the worst teams at defending passes to running backs,
and wide receivers like Tate who patrol the short yardage throws,
making Tate a nice option along with Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah.
The loss of Vic Beasley to a hamstring tear takes away Atlanta’s
top sack specialist, while the revamped Lions offensive line with
T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner has done an excellent job of protecting
Stafford this season (four sacks allowed in two games). Getting
pressure on Stafford will be a key for defensive coordinator Marquand
Manuel, who may need to blitz more than usual with the absence
of Beasley.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: The Bears and Packers proved with four
touchdowns and 166 yards on 31 carries that you can run the ball
and score touchdowns against the Falcons. Only the Patriots and
Jets have allowed more points to opposing running backs this year,
making Ameer Abdulla a viable No.2 RB start Week 3. Abdullah struggled
to find running room against the Cardinals Week 1, but he set
a career high with 86 yards on 17 carries Week 2 against a tough
Giants run defense. Look for Abdulla to reach pay dirt this weekend
with close to 100 combined rushing and receiving yards.
A positive game script fueled by a high-scoring Atlanta offense
could mean more receptions out of the backfield for Theo Riddick,
the most polished receiving back in the Detroit backfield. Although
the former Norte Dame golden domer managed just three catches
for 17 years against the Giants Week 2, a stat line similar to
his six receptions for 27 yards and a score against Arizona is
not out of the question.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Two home games without an offensive touchdown
and a start wide receiver unhappy with play calling is a recipe
for an offensive coordinator change. With Ken Zampese out and
quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor taking the reins of the Bengal offense,
there is hope in Cinci that the Andy Dalton led offense will finally
start to click in 2017.
Lazor has been a part of numerous NFL coaching staffs, including
a stint as the OC in Miami and a member of Chip Kelly’s
offensive staff in Philly. Playing a fast paced style of offense
like Kelly’s is not going to gel with Marvin Lewis’
old-school smash-mouth philosophy. But one thing is clear, look
for Lazor to simplify the offense and actively target A.J. Green
in the passing game. Green was an outspoken critic of Zampese’s
scheme and one of the main catalysts for the alleged “mutiny”
in the Bengals locker room that forced Lewis to make a change.
I would be shocked if Green did not receive at least ten targets
on Sunday against the Packers.
The question is will the offensive line given Dalton enough time
to stretch the field and connect with Green on those targets.
The Bengals lost their two starting tackles to free agency over
the offseason and newly acquired Cedric Ogbuehi, and Jake Fisher
have been dreadful this season.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Many fantasy owners are wondering if the
change in offensive coordinator will lead to a change in running
back scheme, with hyper-touted rookie Joe Mixon getting the lion’s
share of carries. The carry distribution through two games is
split nearly evenly between Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, and
Mixon, with Mixon receiving five more touches than his backfield
mates, yet posting the least amount of success with 45 yards on
17 carries for a 2.6 YPC average.
Lewis is an old school coach who likes to lean on his trusted
players, making it difficult for a rookie like Mixon to become
a bell cow over vets like Bernard and Hill. Regardless of who
gets the carries, the Bengals will need to run the ball to keep
the football out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands, while giving Dalton
balance and keeping the Packers’ pass rush in check. Seattle
struggled to run the ball Week 1, but the Falcons were much more
successful, with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combining for
126 yards and three total touchdowns out of the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Injuries to tackles Bryan Bulaga and David
Bakhtiari have severely limited Aaron Rodgers’ ability to
read the defense and make plays down the field. The leaky offensive
line has allowed seven sacks on Rodgers in the first two games
and countless hard hits to the franchise quarterback, including
a brutal sack-fumble caused by Vic Beasley that led to a Falcons
defensive touchdown last week.
In addition to offensive line injuries, a quad injury to top
receiver Jody Nelson has a direct effect on Rodgers and the Packer
offense struggling to move the ball last week against Atlanta.
On a positive note, Nelson participated in full in practice on
Wednesday and Bulaga appears to be on track to play against the
Bengals.
Through two games, the Bengals have allowed the fifth-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks and just one passing touchdown.
That stat should be taken with a grain of salt, as Joe Flacco
threw a career-low 17 pass attempts in a lopsided Week 1 game
that was filled with turnovers by Andy Dalton, and rookie Deshaun
Watson and the Texans are a struggling young offense looking for
an identity.
Two key matchups in this game are the Bengals defensive line
against the turnstile Packers offensive line and cornerback Adam
Jones outside against Jordy Nelson. Although the Bengals have
struggled to score a touchdown this season on offense, the defensive
unit is tied for third in the league with eight sacks.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: As the clear bell cow running back for
the Packers, Ty Montgomery ranks third in the league in fantasy
points with just over 19 points per game. Although the former
Stanford Cardinal is averaging a pedestrian 3.1 yards per carry,
his usage in the passing game and his ability to get red zone
touches makes him an elite play this week against a Bengals team
that allowed over 100 yards rushing in both games this season.
Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote on Wednesday
that the Packers will likely begin to start limiting Montgomery’s
snaps in hopes of keeping him healthy and fresh for the long season.
Montgomery leads all running backs in snaps this season, a whopping
15 more than second place Ezekiel Elliott, who has 123 snaps through
two games.
Limiting Montgomery would not be the worst thing in the world
for fantasy owners, as fewer touches between the 30’s could
keep Monty spry for the entire season while giving him more burst
and energy for the all-important red zone touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A Week 2 cakewalk at home over the Bears
was an easy start for a Bucs team that missed their opening week
game against the Dolphins due to hurricane Irma. A Week 3 road
matchup against a tough Vikings defense in front of a loud crowd
at US Bank Field will be a much more difficult challenge for Jameis
Winston and the Tampa Bay offense. The Vikings held Drew Brees
and the Saints to one garbage touchdown late in the fourth quarter,
salvaging what could have been a dreadful day for Brees fantasy
owners.
A matchup to watch is Xavier Rhodes on Mike Evans on the outside,
as Rhodes limited Antonio Brown to five catches for 62 yards last
week and Michael Thomas to five catches for 52 yards Week 1. This
could be a big game for free agent acquisition DeSean Jackson,
who may have better success stretching the field behind a Harrison
Smith, a fairly aggressive safety who excels in run support.
The success of Jacquizz Rodgers and the run game is a key for
Jameis Winston in the passing game, as you can beat Minnesota’s
linebackers on seam routes off of play action. If Rodgers and
Charles Simms can provide enough of a threat on the ground to
get Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks to bit on the play action,
Winston should be able to test corners Trae Waynes and Terrence
Newman.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Running against the Vikings has been an
exercise in futility in 2017, with the trio of Saints running
backs combining for 53 yards on 19 carries for a sub-three YPC
average, and Le’Veon Bell managing just 87 yards on 27 carries
Week 2. With Bell managing just 3.2 yards per attempt at home
with a talented run-blocking offensive line in Pittsburgh, it
begs the question, how will the Bucs have success this week on
the road in Minnesota?
Perhaps Rodgers will have success catching the ball out of the
backfield similar to the Saints, who managed 74 yards on nine
catches to their tailbacks. But that passing back success did
not carry over to Bell, who posted his second-worst regular season
receiving total of his career at just four yards on four receptions.
Regardless of how Rodgers gets his touches, he does not project
well to having a strong performance in Week 3, and fantasy owners
may want to look elsewhere.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Case Keenum and his pedestrian 167 yards
and zero touchdowns on 20-of-37 passing proved just how vital
Sam Bradford is to the Vikings and the overall success of the
skill position players in both the passing and run game for Minnesota.
After a massive 7/93/2 game against the Saints on Monday Night
Football to kick off the year, Stefon Diggs was held to just two
catches for 27 yards on six targets. Adam Theilen also saw his
production fall off the cliff from 9/157/0 Week 1 to just five
catches for 44 yards against the Steelers. Part of the decrease
in production for Diggs and Theilen can be attributed to a more
challenging matchup on the road against Pittsburgh, but the loss
of Bradford, a far more accurate and talented quarterback that
Keenum, drastically hurt the value of all skill position players
on the Vikings.
As of Thursday, Bradford has been a limited participant in practice
despite telling reporters on Wednesday that he is optimistic about
his chances for playing Sunday. If Bradford is active, Diggs,
Theilen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph will all get a bump in their
respective rankings. If Keenum is under center, all Vikings skill
position players should be downgraded against a good, but not
great Tampa Bay defense that held Chicago scoreless for most of
the game Week 2.
Kyle Rudolph could be in line for bounce-back game after posting
a disappointing 3/26/0 line last week against the Steelers. Over
the past 16 games, the Bucs have been stingy at allowing receiving
touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but they have allowed impressive
yardage and catch totals to Kelce (7/108), Witten (10/81), and
Olsen (9/181).
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers held Tarik Cohen and Jordan
Howard to a combined 20 yards on 11 carries last week, with Howard
managing just seven yards on nine attempts before leaving early
with an injury. Using stats from this game to project rookie Dalvin
Cook’s stats this week is a poor measuring tool due the
lopsided game script, but the Bucs did have success against the
run last year by allowing only two back to rush for more than
100 yards in a game, including Ezekiel Elliott’s impressive
23/159/1 game Week 15.
Cook will be heavily utilized in this game in both the passing
and ground game and may see paydirt for the first time in his
young career. Despite Keenum’s inability to move the ball
in the air and sustain drives, Cook played well with 64 yards
on 12 carries for a 5.3 YPC average. For the Vikings to be successful
and pull out the victory with Keenum under center, Cook and the
rushing game will need to be a focal point of their attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Season-ending injuries to linebackers Jerrell
Freeman and Kick Kwiatkoski are significant blows to a defense
that allowed the 24th-most points in 2016. The Bears are off to
another poor start by allowing 321 yards and a touchdown to Matt
Ryan and 204 yards and a score in just over a half of action to
Jameis Winston Week 2.
The Ben Roethlisberger home vs. away split has been talked about
ad nauseam over the past four seasons in the fantasy community,
but a plus-10 point average at home vs. on the road is eye-opening
and should be considered. But not this week against a Bears team
that will give numerous short fields due to turnovers and terrible
play by a Mike Glennon-led offense that cannot sustain drives
or protect the ball.
All Steeler skill position players should be started with confidence
in this game, although defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s
scheme has done a decent job in limiting monster games from opposing
No.1 wideouts. Antonio Brown should be started in all formats,
but a monster game from No. 84 may not be in the cards.
The loss of two starting linebackers and Big Ben’s comfort
level in Jessie James could make James a sneaky start in standard
formats. James will not get enough target volume to make him a
viable start in PPR leagues, but a touchdown throw to the outlaw
could be in line this week against the Bears.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: The volume one would expect for Le’Veon
Bell returned last week after the Steelers eased in their superstar
running back Week 1 against the Browns. The results were not there,
however, with Bell managing just 87 yards on 27 carries against
a difficult Minnesota rush defense. Look for that to change this
week against the Bears, with Bell converting 25-plus touches into
at least 100 combined yards and a score.
Vegas has an implied total for the Steelers at 27 points, which
considering Big Ben’s road woes, it appears that even the
sharps project for Bell to have a big day on Sunday. The Bears
have allowed a touchdown to an opposing running back in each of
their first two games, with Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber
combining to top the century mark last week. All signs point to
Bell having a strong week, and he is a must-start in all formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Most people scoffed when the Bears offered
Mike Glennon a 3-year, $45 million contract this past offseason,
as it seemed a bit extreme to give a career-backup QB with mediocre
stats a sizable contract. Glennon has done nothing to prove his
detractors wrong, completing 57 of his first 85 passes for 514
yards and two scores in his first two games. His QBR rating of
32.4 is seventh-worst in the league, behind Case Keenum and Jared
Goff.
In Glennon’s defense, he lost his two starting wide receivers
in Kevin White and Cam Meredith, and the ragtag collection of
wide receivers left on the roster have not helped him out with
a league-worst six dropped passes in two games.
Obviously, Glennon is not worthy of a start in anything but deep
two-quarterback leagues, and the wide receiving tandem of Kendall
Wright, Josh Bellamy, and Deonte Thompson should be avoided as
well. Over the past 18 games, the Steelers have given up the 15th-most
points to opposing tight ends, making Zach Miller a consideration
in deeper leagues. But the only Bear you can start with confidence
in the passing game is running back Tarik Cohen, who continues
to be a PPR monster and a focal point of the offense.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: A shoulder injury, a diminished workload,
and a negative game script make 2016 darling Jordan Howard a red
flag play this week against the Steelers. Although Dalvin Cook
managed over five-yards per carry last week, Howard will be lucky
to get the 16 carries Cook managed in that game, with rookie sensation
Tarik Cohen pilfering Howard’s work in the passing game.
Of the two backs, Cohen is the play here regardless of format,
but exponentially more in PPR formats where Cohen leads all running
backs in targets (21) so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Seattle struggling mightily to start
the year, it’s easy to dismiss the team’s offensive
hopes on the road in Tennessee. Still, the connection between
quarterback Russell Wilson and receiver Doug Baldwin is one with
proven success. Even with Paul Richardson (12 targets) becoming
more involved in the offense, Baldwin leads the team with 13.
Expect Wilson to lean on his top target against a Titans team
surrendering the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Jimmy Graham has yet to practice due to an ankle injury, hindering
his chances of playing on Sunday. Graham has been a total non-factor
through two games, hauling in just four receptions for 10 yards.
Luke Wilson and Nick Vannett would step in if Graham can’t
go which would make this a tight end situation one to avoid. Things
may look dire for the Seahawks, specifically due to the offensive
line, but a nice matchup in Week 3 puts them in a spot to bounce
back. As a Baldwin owner myself, I’m breathing easy....
you should too.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy’s move from Green Bay
to Seattle is already fading away from fantasy relevance. A healthy
scratch this past week, Lacy is a non-factor in Week 3. Instead,
it’s rookie Chris Carson who fills the void on the ground.
He will still need to compete with Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise
for touches but he’s really the only one you can justify
using at this point. Carson leads the team at 26 touches while
Prosise is filling in as the primary pass-catching option. Prosise
has six targets out of the backfield, a facet of the game Carson
won’t be viable in. That leaves Rawls, a back who is still
being eased into the offense after returning from injury. If it
sounds like a mess, that’s because it kind of is. Carson
is a usable flex piece this week with the potential for more in
the future.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Third year passer Marcus Mariota has made
the Tennessee offense exciting to watch. Unfortunately, a tough
matchup with the Seattle defense puts a temporary damper on the
hype. The Seahawks already held Aaron Rodgers largely in check
in Green Bay, so a homefield advantage doesn’t factor in
for Mariota. Having said that, the Titans do have the weapons
to put pressure on the secondary. Corey Davis has already been
ruled out due to a lingering hamstring injury, leaving Rishard
Matthews, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker at Mariota’s disposal.
The target share among them has been evenly distributed thus far.
Davis, Decker, and Walker all have 13 a piece while Matthews barely
edges them out at 14. It’s unclear where those empty targets
will go with Davis out, but the safe money is on a continued even
split. If anything, Walker should be able to pad his lead as the
team’s top receiving option. He has 11 receptions for 137
yards through two weeks and remains a strong TE1. He’s the
only player in the passing game you can count on this week.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Derrick Henry took over for a banged up
DeMarco Murray (hamstring) in Week 2, a storyline that weighs
heavy on Sunday’s game against the Seahawks. Effectiveness
aside, Murray’s health could easily dictate how much Henry
is involved going forward. Whoever gets the upcoming start will
have the unfortunate burden of running up against a tough Seattle
defense. The numbers don’t tell us much here. It’s
all about Murray’s hamstring and the matchup. This could
be anything from an even split to one guy dominating the other
in snaps. Even if Murray sits, Henry isn’t the slam-dunk
RB1 you might think. If both play, you’d be wise to avoid
the situation if you can.
Passing
Game Thoughts: DeShone Kizer is in a prime spot for what
could be a breakout game against a cupcake defense in Indianapolis.
The Colts are in desperate need of their top cornerback in Vontae
Davis who remains out with a groin injury although he could suit
up this week. His absence would allow for Kizer to lean on newly
established No. 1 receiver Rashard Higgins. Higgins is coming
off an impressive outing against the Ravens in which he haualed
in seven caches for 95 yards. Perhaps more importantly is that
he was on the field for 12 more snaps than Kenny Britt, who seems
to be lacking motivation. Higgins is locked in to the top spot
and has WR3/flex appeal in Week 3.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell has been open in expressing
his desire to be more involved in the offense. Head coach Hue
Jackson does love himself some ground and pound so there’s
reason to believe this turns out to be more than background noise.
Crowell hasn’t been able to do much at just 2.6 YPC, but
he does have strong RB2 potential. That’s especially true
with the Colts on deck. Indy’s weakness may through the
air, but they’re no juggernaut defending the run. Look for
a steady balance of run and pass, keeping Crowell involved enough
to contribute for fantasy. Lastly, Duke Johnson was once a PPR
darling but has since evaporated to the tune of nine touches over
two games. The snap count (87) is there, the production is not.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Poor T.Y. Hilton has been subjected to quarterbacks
Scott Tolzien and Jacoby Brissett to start the year. WIth an Andrew
Luck return nowhere in sight, Hilton’s fantasy stock is
plummeting. He hasn’t even established the bulk of the target
share either. He may have the most (13), but Donte Moncrief, Kamar
Aiken, and tight end Jack Doyle all have 11 each. Without Luck,
I’d recommend making other plans at wide receiver. Shockingly,
Jack Doyle has been able to return low-end TE1 value despite not
having a superstar quarterback throwing to him. He’s the
true top pass-catcher on the team right now and Brissett should
be able to keep Doyle heavily involved.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: I’ve
been a fan of Frank Gore for the entirety of his NFL career. Super
underrated, always a fantasy asset. This year, however, the Colts
have been featuring Robert Turbin and Marlon Mack consistently,
putting a dent in Gore’s stock. He does remain the back
you want, especially facing a Browns team that gave up the second
most yards on the ground in 2016. For as bad as the Colts are
right now, Gore represents a small sliver of hope for the team’s
immediate fantasy production and should be considered a strong
Flex play with the highest probability of any Colts player to
find the endzone.
UPDATE: RB Marlon
Mack has been ruled out. Matt Jones has been promoted from the
practice squad. Expect Turbin to fill the No.2 role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The split between receivers Mike Wallace
and Jeremy Maclin is far greater than anticipated. Wallace has
been invisible netting two receptions on four targets through
two games. Maclin however, has gone six of nine, establishing
himself as Joe Flacco’s top option at wide receiver. As
far as Flacco is concerned, he’ll need to pick up his production
if he’s going to be considered anything more than a bye-week
filler. He currently ranks 26th among fantasy quarterbacks with
just 338 passing yards through two games and the Ravens rank dead
last in pass attempts (51) among teams that have played two games.
The Ravens draw a much improved Jacksonville defense this week
in a game that could be low scoring (39.5 total). The biggest
defensive storyline is that Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey could
miss this game, opening things up in the secondary. Mike Wallace
could benefit from Ramsey being out, but you’d have to desperate
to roll him out there. Maclin is certainly usable given his newfound
usage. Speaking of usage, Ben Watson is starting to be featured
in the passing game as well. Coming off of a game in which he
converted eight of nine targets for 91 yards, Watson is a sneaky
add for owners hurting at the tight end position this week.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Terrance
West was enjoying a nice start to the year before leaving Week
2 with a thigh injury. Now the lead dog by default, Javorius Allen
is a decent play against a soft Jacksonville front. The Ravens
are committed to running the ball, especially given their lack
of true firepower. Allen and West were on pace to essentially
splitting the workload. Allen’s 35 attempts compared to
West’s 27 aren’t that far apart yet they’d be
even closer if West hadn’t gotten hurt. If West is indeed
ruled out, Alex Collins would step in as the change of pace back.
That alone should put Collins in flex consideration in deeper
PPR leagues. Part of the key to Baltimore’s success out
of the backfield is their ability to feature multiple backs at
once by virtue of involving them in the passing game. Both West
and Allen will be usable while healthy. As far as this week is
concerned, Allen has a fairly high floor.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The loss of Allen Robinson paved the way
for Marqise Lee to see 12 targets against the Titans last week.
As expected, Allen Hurns was involved as well with seven looks
of his own. This figures to be a situation where each receiver
will eat into the other, limiting their fantasy upside. Facing
a potent Baltimore defense won’t do them any favors this
week. Blake Bortles is likely going to be slinging it wildly ad
nauseam as he typically does, playing right into the Ravens ability
to force turnovers. There’s a real possibility the Jaguars
offense doesn’t see the field enough to have a ton of passing
attempts. We’ve seen the Jags produce multiple fantasy receivers
simultaneously, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility
that both Lee and Hurns can contribute. For this week, though,
they’re deep flex plays.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard
Fournette is turning out to be the beast he was hyped up to be.
Dominating rushing attempts (40), Fournette is not threatened
by Chris Ivory or T.J. Yeldon. Sure, Ivory is still involved,
but he’s nowhere close to hindering Fournette’s usage.
Fournette is a true RB1 who will face his toughest challenge of
the season when the Jags host the Ravens in London. Again, the
Baltimore-D is legit, but Fournette is talented enough to produce.
He’s looking like one of those matchup proof rushers who
you can easily set and forget.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Always notorious for spreading the ball
around, quarterback Drew Brees has managed to make every receiver
not named Michael Thomas moot. Ted Ginn Jr., Brandon Coleman,
Coby Fleener, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara are all flirting around
10 targets give or take. The receivers out of that group, Ginn
and Coleman, aren’t doing enough to warrant using in any
capacity. The answer to the question of “who is the No.
2 in New Orleans?” seems to be Fleener. Fleener has been
great thus far, hauling in eight grabs for 87 yards and two scores.
Given the current state of the tight end position, that’s
superstar status through two weeks. Looking at Sunday’s
game in Carolina, the Saints will likely struggle on the road
the way they usually do, limiting upside across the board. Given
Carolina’s first two opponents in the 49ers and Bills, it’s
difficult to gauge whether or not their defense is any good. Your
best bet is to start who you normally would in Brees, Thomas,
and Fleener while ignoring the rest.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Ingram and
Kamara are joined by Adrian Peterson in a backfield that’s
kind of an enigma. Ingram has been the most productive by far,
especially considering his contributions in the passing game.
It’s for that reason that he’s the only one of this
group you can lean on against the Panthers. Peterson has just
as many carries as Ingram at 14, but there’s no telling
how many snaps he’ll even be on the field for at any given
time. Ingram qualifies as a flex this week with a bump up in PPR.
His seven receptions out of the backfield ranks seventh among
running backs to start the year. Kamara needs to be owned everywhere.
The upside is there especially in PPR leagues but he’s too
much of an unknown to consider him as a viable fantasy starter
right now.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Greg Olsen going down with a foot injury
leaves a huge hole in Carolina’s passing game. The most
obvious scenario is that Kelvin Benjamin will become more heavily
involved. Hey, just because it’s obvious doesn’t make
it any less true. Benjamin has shown he can be a fantasy contributor
when his usage is consistent. Already his team’s receiving
leader in both targets (13) and yards (102), Benjamin is in line
for an uptick in fantasy points over the next few weeks. As an
added bonus, Benjamin’s first outing post-Greg Olsen injury
is against the Saints. The Saints may very well have the worst
defense in the league, a notion that will easily play into Benjamin’s
hands. In fact, New Orleans has allowed the most fantasy points
to both opposing wide receivers and quarterbacks making Newton
a viable QB1 this week. The big question for Newton is can he
still get it done with his legs? Devin Funchess is another candidate
for higher usage and should be considered as Flex options with
Olsen out of the picture. We’re looking at a Panthers team
that is poised for a ton of fantasy contribution in Week 3.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Given how
many owners drafted Christian McCaffrey as early as the second
round, his lack of both production and usage is disheartening.
With 21 rushing attempts to Jonathan Stewart’s 33, this
is much more of a “hot hand” approach than anything
else. As expected, McCaffrey does have more value in PPR leagues
than Stewart even though Stewart has the lone receiving TD between
them. We’ve established that this week’s matchup against
the Saints is a dream scenario. The combination of offensive philosophy
and opponent make the Panthers one of the rare breed of teams
where you can start more than one running back any given week.
Both McCaffrey and Stewart should be viewed as RB2s with McCaffrey
getting the edge in PPR, Stewart in standard.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Two weeks into the 2017 season and Trevor
Siemian leads the NFL in passing touchdowns. We all saw that one
coming. As has been the case since Emmanuel Sanders signed in
Denver, the Broncos only have two relevant pass catchers: Sanders
and Demaryius Thomas. Each saw eight targets last week and each
caught six, combining for 133 yards. Sanders was the one who found
the end zone twice. Thomas was drafted about two rounds ahead
of Sanders, but the reality is both of them are low end WR2s that
become WR1s if they score. Siemian has emerged into a viable streaming
option and while the Bills have opened the season with two strong
defensive efforts, one was against the Jets and the other was
against Cam Newton. Yes, I mean that in a disparaging sense. This
is not an imposing matchup for the Broncos and Siemian could return
decent value if your shaky at the QB position.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles looks really good. He looks
like Jamaal Charles. He has elite RB1 upside in this offense for
as long as he can stay healthy…if CJ Anderson were to get
hurt. Until that happens, Charles is merely one of the best handcuffs
in the league. Anderson looked as good as I’ve ever seen
him against the Cowboys’ typically staunch run defense.
He was making decisive cuts and more impressively, was exceedingly
difficult to tackle. If he doesn’t get hurt, he could end
up being a league winning pick. This is a game the Broncos should
control defensively so Anderson is a near lock for 20+ touches.
He could again return RB1 numbers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor is no longer capable of generating
any fantasy relevant pass catchers. He displayed his own fantasy
floor last week by still reaching double digits due to his rushing
numbers. He is always just a touchdown away from pushing into
QB1 territory, but he’s totaled just 349 passing yards through
two games. LeSean McCoy currently leads the team in receptions
(11) while Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones have just 8 combined
receptions in two games. They are good players, but the volume
just isn’t there. Facing arguably the best pass defense
in the NFL this week is not going to help. The Broncos just steamrolled
the Cowboys and all signs point to the Bills struggling to move
the ball in the air.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy had an abysmal Week 2, somehow
managing to have more carries (12) than yards (nine). He does
have 11 receptions on the year and it appears as though the reports
that he may lead the Bills in catches may come to fruition. Mike
Tolbert (15 carries) is operating as McCoy’s backup but
isn’t a threat to McCoy’s workload. It’s another
terrible matchup for the Bills running game after the Brocons
somehow held Ezekiel Elliott to fewer rushing yards than McCoy
had. However, Shady’s volume is not going anywhere. Absent
injury, there is a 100% chance he touches the ball at least 15
times and he really can’t run the ball worse than he did
last week. The touchdown upside isn’t there anymore, but
Shady is still a volume based PPR RB1 and a high end RB2 in standard.
Value Meter:
RB2: LeSean McCoy (high end)
Bench: All other Bills
Passing
Game Thoughts: After the always popular Week 1 bye, the
Dolphins began their season with a cross country trip to Los Angeles
where the Chargers did typical Chargers things, snatching defeat
from the jaws of victory. It appears that talks of Jay Cutler
only launching the ball downfield to DeVante Parker were overstated.
He peppered Jarvis Landry with target after target, 15 to be exact,
to the tune of 78 yards. Landry will be what he’s been his
entire career – mediocre in standard and great in PPR. The
fact that Cutler was looking Landry’s way a lot is encouraging.
As for Parker, he saw nine targets of his own. While he only caught
four, the majority of his targets were downfield, which is to
be expected for a guy Cutler compared to Alshon Jeffery. This
receiving corps is a two-man show, but one you definitely are
excited to be a part of as they face the hapless Jets that just
gave up three touchdowns to Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree. Everyone
gets a bump when they face the Jets.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi was a very polarizing player
heading into this year’s drafts. We know the talent is there,
but he was very dependent on the health of his offensive line
and his production in 2016 was centered around his three 200-yard
rushing games. Ajayi exploded out of the gate last Sunday and
legitimately looked good running the ball. He had a bounce in
his step and was eluding would be tacklers like a top end running
back. He didn’t score, but he did break 100 yards and most
importantly, he dominated carries. Kenyan Drake only touched the
ball once compared to Ajayi’s 30 touches (including his
two receptions).
The Jets gave up a 43-yard rushing TD to Cordarrelle Patterson
last week as well as a 52-yard rushing TD to Jalen Richard. Ajayi
is going to have a big week if he plays. His knee injury is reported
as minor, but he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday,
so just be sure to check his status. Drake would form an undesirable
committee with Damien Williams if Ajayi were unable to play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The nicest thing I can say about Josh McCown
is that he didn’t throw an interception last week. Apparently
Jermaine Kearse is a real thing and should be owned in all fantasy
leagues. I don’t know how you can confidently start anyone
on the Jets, but Kearse has quickly developed a rapport with McCown
and four catches for 64 yards isn’t terrible. When you add
in the two TDs, you have a WR1 performance. That’s unlikely
to repeat itself, but Kearse could be a WR3 if McCown continues
to treat him like the Jets best wide receiver. Robby Anderson
was a popular late-round flier after Quincy Enunwa went down,
but he has yet to materialize into anything useful. He only saw
four targets against the Raiders. Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns
this week from his two-game suspension and given the state of
the TE in 2017, he’s worth a flier on your roster, but you
can’t start him just yet. Word is he’s out of shape
anyway. On the rare occasion the Jets do find themselves in the
red zone, ASJ could emerge as McCown’s go to guy. If you’re
a Tyler Eifert or Jimmy Graham owner, ASJ is a no-risk gamble.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: I spent the majority of the off-season
on the Bilal Powell train. I hopped off just before drafts. I
am glad I did. Not only is Matt Forte not going away, but Elijah
McGuire is firmly in the rotation as well. Forte led the backfield
with nine carries last week, while Powell and McGuire saw six
each. Powell was the least effective of the bunch, averaging just
2.2 ypc. He also didn’t catch a pass. Powell is bordering
on droppable in all formats despite the fact that neither Forte
nor McGuire are worth owning either. The Jets are just a fantasy
wasteland. The caliber of the opposing defense does not matter
much – you just can’t start anyone in this backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: DeAndre Hopkins is going to get all the
targets but many of the targets are trash. Deshaun Watson seems
incapable of throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield. His
average depth of attempt is just 8.8 yards and he also leads the
NFL with 17 interceptable passes despite having played two fewer
quarters than the other starting QBs. In Watson’s first
full start against a terrible Bengals defense, he failed to generate
anything through the air, throwing for just 125 yards. Watson
can do enough to make Hopkins a volume based WR2 with WR1 upside
if he can find the end zone. However, Watson’s own fantasy
value is capped. He is quite adept when he tucks the ball to run
and is one of the more elusive running QBs, but his problem is
he looks at his first read (usually Hopkins) and if that’s
not there, he looks to run. He needs a ton of development in order
to become an above average NFL QB and a viable weekly fantasy
starter.
The Patriots were angry last week and took out their anger on
the Saints, essentially holding them to 13 points before a garbage
time TD pushed it to 20. If the Patriots can contain the Saints
in the Superdome, what hope do the Texans have to move the ball
effectively in Foxboro?
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Bill O’Brien is finally accepting
the reality that Lamar Miller isn’t particularly good at
football. After dominating carries in Week 1, Miller split with
D’Onta Foreman 18-12 in Week 2. Although their yards per
carry averages were virtually identical, Foreman looked like the
superior player. This is going to become a full blown timeshare
sooner rather than later and it wouldn’t surprise me if
the scales tipped in Foreman’s favor before season’s
end. Miller is nothing more than a weekly RB2 hopeful with limited
touchdown potential. He is still the primary receiving back, which
will help him retain some value, but there’s no scenario
where he provides a positive return on investment. There could
be a lot of garbage time this week, but there’s no guarantee
it won’t be Foreman in the game to benefit.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I wasn’t sure last week. I am now.
Tom Brady is once again angry. He took out his anger on the Saints
to the tune of 447 yards and three touchdowns, which easily could’ve
been four or five. The Patriots came out of the gates firing on
all cylinders with Brady leading the aerial assault as the running
game took a backseat until it was time to kill the clock. Rob
Gronkowski was uncoverable and Chris Hogan had a nice game as
well. A quick note on Gronk’s groin tweak: He did not practice
Wednesday, but was limited on Thursday. I think he will be ready
to go on Sunday.
There are two big talking points from this game. The first: Tom
Brady is most definitely not done. In fact, I’ll go on record
to predict he’ll finish as the overall QB1 in fantasy this
season. The second, is Brandin Cooks. In a game where Brady threw
39 passes, Cooks only saw four targets. That’s not encouraging.
Cooks looks fine on the field and he’s getting open, but
Brady is not zeroing in on him like I expected. Cooks should’ve
had a touchdown in last week’s game, which would’ve
made the final line look better, but the reality is, all the fears
of the anti Cooks people are coming to fruition – there
are just too many mouths to feed. Obviously Cooks can take the
top off at any moment and he is going to have his games, but it
does not look like the consistency will suddenly appear in New
England.
Additionally, Danny Amendola returned to practice Wednesday and
will likely play this week. His presence forces a downgrade of
Chris Hogan. The Texans have a very good defense, but their offense’s
inability to move the ball is going to put the defense in bad
situations, which Brady will be able to exploit. I would not downgrade
any Patriots because of the matchup.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Mike Gillislee is probably going to score
15 touchdowns this season. If you have him, you have to start
him every week because he has the highest probability of scoring
out of any RB. The problem of course, is if he doesn’t score,
you’re getting RB3 numbers at best. James White is listed
at RB, but we all know he doesn’t actually run the ball.
White caught all eight of his targets against the Saints and looks
every bit like an extremely high floor PPR RB2. With all of the
team’s injuries at WR, White’s role is one of the
most secure on the team.
Rex Burkhead looked very good last week and caught a beautiful
over the top touchdown, but we didn’t see much more from
him after he suffered a rib injury. He did not practice Wednesday
or Thursday and given his usage thus far, he appears to be nothing
more than a situational player for the Patriots. He won’t
have fantasy value unless Gillislee or White goes down. The Texans
completely shut down the Bengals run game last week, but the Patriots
are a different animal. Gillislee and White can be deployed as
usual.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben McAdoo indicated he could give up play
calling duties this week. There’s no way that could possibly
hurt the Giants, but it won’t solve Eli Manning’s
problem of holding onto the ball too long. Manning’s offensive
line is terrible, but even when he was given time, he refused
to let go of the ball. I guess I got what I deserved for actually
defending Manning last week.
As for Manning’s pass catchers, it’s evident he is
missing Odell Beckham. Beckham made his return Monday night, but
won’t be 100% for another few weeks as he continues to recover
from his high ankle sprain. Without Beckham at full strength,
Manning spread the ball around. He completed 22 passes against
the Lions to ten different receivers. Beckham and Evan Engram
led the team with four receptions each. Engram caught his first
career touchdown on broken coverage where he was wide open up
the seam despite Manning making Engram leap up to corral the throw.
In a year where there are very few relevant fantasy TEs, Engram
is as good of a bet as any to emerge. He is without question the
second most talented pass catcher the Giants have. Engram was
surprisingly placed in the concussion protocol Wednesday, but
done so as a precaution. Concussions are tricky so there’s
no way of knowing what this will mean, but right now, given he
practiced on Thursday, it looks as if Engram will play.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Brandon Marshall’s
84% ownership rate compels me to remind everyone that Brandon
Marshall is done. He no longer possesses the ability to play wide
receiver in the NFL. The Eagles have done a good job containing
number one receivers this season, limiting Terrelle Pryor in Week
1 and Tyreek Hill in Week 2, but they were shredded by Travis
Kelce last week. This could be a good spot for Engram as Beckham
should be better, but not yet himself.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: I’ve written over a dozen analyses
on the Giants running game over the past season and change. They
all sound the same. The Giants are completely incapable of running
the ball. It’s been that way for a while now. Orleans Darkwa
did manage 17 yards on his three carries and Shane Vereen totaled
28 yards on his six carries. However, Ben McAdoo is irrationally
infatuated with the worst starting RB in the NFL, Paul Perkins.
He only carried the ball seven times, which is an improvement,
but in addition to his pathetic rushing total of 10 yards, he
missed a number of blocking assignments on passing plays. He led
the Giants backfield with as many snaps (28) as Vereen (17) and
Darkwa (11) combined. Vereen is the only member of this backfield
worth owning based on his PPR floor and the possibility McAdoo
makes a change in personnel at the position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz has been a top three fantasy
QB through the first two weeks of 2017. In no simpler terms, it
is a fluke. In Week 1, he had the fluky long TD to Nelson Agholor.
In Week 2, he had the fluky long completion to Zach Ertz at the
end of the first half as well as 55 rushing yards.
Alshon Jeffery saw 13 targets last week, catching seven for 92
yards and a score. Zach Ertz caught half of his 10 targets for
97 yards. Ertz is a top five, maybe even top three option at TE.
He has a great matchup against the Giants. Jeffery, on the other
hand, may not. It all depends on whether Janoris Jenkins plays.
For all the Giants failures, their defense is still very good
and Jenkins is a shutdown corner when he plays. Torrey Smith had
a decent game last week, but he is still not a fantasy factor.
Agholor, as I predicted, faded into the background. He did catch
a touchdown, so anyone who made the error of picking him up at
least got that, but that was his only reception of the game. Jeffery
and Ertz are the only names to concern yourself with and both
should be in lineups this week.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: How many carries did you, fine reader,
have last Sunday in professional football games? That’s
the same amount of carries LeGarrette Blount saw as well. He should
never have been drafted and he should not be owned anymore. Darren
Sproles is the only Eagles back worth owning. He is good for 10-15
touches a game. He carried the ball 10 times last week and caught
two passes. His ceiling is low, but he won’t get you zero.
Think of him as a slightly better version of Shane Vereen. Wendell
Smallwood (4 touches) barely played. The Giants haven’t
allowed a rushing TD over the first two weeks and excel at stopping
the run. Sproles will be fine, but isn’t an appealing option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s admittedly hard to take anything
a team does against the Jets seriously, but Derek Carr is just
really good at football. I thought he would be more real life
good than fantasy good, but so far, he’s been both. Carr
only threw for 230 yards last week, mainly because the Jets were
completely noncompetitive, but he did throw for three touchdowns,
all going to Michael Crabtree. I’d like to take a moment
to officially declare the Amari Cooper elite WR1 movement dead.
He’s a good player but he hasn’t matched the high
expectations many cast on him coming out of college. Crabtree
is the top guy in Oakland while Cooper is the WR2. The sooner
we accept that truth, the sooner we can stop being disappointed
by Cooper’s fantasy output. Josh Norman may not shadow Cooper
in this game but the two should see plenty of each other, making
Crabtree the better bet for fantasy production. The Redskins have
been kind to opposing offenses thus far so we could be in for
a shootout in Washington. Carr, Crabtree, and Cooper are all strong
plays.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch is exactly what we thought
he’d be – a two down back that needs a touchdown to
be useful. He’s essentially Mike Gillislee west. Lynch handled
just 12 carries last week because that’s all he needed.
With the game out of reach, Jack Del Rio smartly burned the clock
with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. This week’s game
should be more competitive, keeping Lynch involved for the duration
of the game, but in what could turn into a passing fest, Lynch’s
upside is capped. Of course, there’s no telling how often
the Raiders will find themselves inside the five yard line, where
you know Lynch is getting the ball. Todd Gurley spent last Sunday
terrorizing the Redskins, but he did a lot of damage in the passing
game, something Lynch certainly will not do. You’re starting
Lynch and hoping the high projected point total leads to at least
a touchdown. Unfortunately, without one, Lynch just isn’t
seeing enough snaps to produce RB numbers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through two weeks, Kirk Cousins has not
looked particularly good. He did enough to secure a win last week,
but his play will have to improve significantly if he intends
to compete with the Raiders. Cousins will have to rely heavily
on Terrelle Pryor this week as I do not anticipate Jordan Reed
being able to suit up. When your coach comes out and says, “he’s
not healthy right now,” that’s never a good sign.
Reed was already playing through a broken toe and now has a sprained
SC joint, which, while he could play through it, would be incredibly
painful. This early in the season it makes too much sense to give
Reed at least a week off to get healthy. It’s entirely possible
Reed plays, I just wouldn’t count on it.
Pryor only saw four targets last week and does not seem to be
on the same page with Cousins, but that could change at any moment.
Pryor is still an elite physical talent and Cousins, presumably,
didn’t just forget how to play quarterback. If Trumaine
Johnson were unable to go as a result of his leg injury from last
week, that would be a huge boost for Pryor. Jamison Crowder (hip)
has also underperformed thus far, but that can also be attributed
to Cousins. He’s caught just seven balls on the year. Oakland’s
generous pass defense could be just what he needs to get going
as well.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Rob Kelley actually played alright last
week, at least by Rob Kelley standards. Unfortunately, he was
knocked out of the game due to a rib injury. When he departed,
he had amassed 78 yards on 12 carries. As it turns out, it was
just a bruise so the Samaje Perine takeover will have to wait
a bit longer. Kelley still isn’t suddenly a good running
back, but he’s getting volume on a good offense. The biggest
concern for Kelley this week would be his injury compelling Jay
Gruden to give Perine some more work. Kelley needs volume to succeed
and he’s already losing some of it to Chris Thompson, who
is not a viable fantasy starter despite his three touchdowns on
the season. Thompson touched the ball seven times in Week 1 and
six times in Week 2. He is not going to break a big play for a
touchdown every week. Kelley remains viable for as long as he
is the starter, but I do believe his days are numbered. That could
start as soon as this week. For now, hold steady with Kelley as
a touchdown dependent RB2.
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