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Inside the Matchup
Super Bowl
2/1/17

By: Andy Swanson | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Jake Gordon



NE vs. PHI | PHI vs. NE


Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Patriots vs. Eagles - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: One year ago, Tom Brady led the Patriots to an AFC Championship without Rob Gronkowski. This year, at the age of 40, Brady did the same thing…except he didn’t have Julian Edelman either. Sunday will be the first time a 40-year-old starts a Super Bowl.

It’s funny how the Patriots can just shift their offense however they want based on situation. For the entire second half of the season, they relied a lot on their running game. Brady’s passing yards hovered around the low 200s. The playoffs hit and the old man flipped a switch. The interception throwing QB was gone and replacing him was vintage Tom Brady with games of 337 and 290 yards and a five-to-zero touchdown to pick ratio. Brady’s playoffs yards per attempt (6.89) is well below his career average (7.5) and indicates more of a dinking and dunking approach. It’s been working.

Brandin Cooks played quite well in the AFC title game, but even his 6-100 game left yards on the board, which is the story of Cooks’ season. Danny Amendola has been the man for Brady in these playoffs. His target count in the playoffs (13 and 9) is more than he had in any game in the regular season (he had 9 twice). Amendola’s 196 yards, 18 receptions, and two touchdowns easily makes for the best two game stretch of the season for him. He has emerged as the clear top receiving option for Brady – even ahead of Cooks. Chris Hogan has become an afterthought since his injury.

Gronk will be cleared in time for the game and should resume doing typical Gronk things. He’s scored a touchdown in his last six full playoff games. In the playoffs, the Patriots have been a pass dominant offense. That should not change in the final game of the season.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis had a massively inefficient AFC Championship game, but he still touched the ball 16 times. Lewis has 16 receptions through two playoff games and is being used purposefully on screens. He remains the only trustworthy fantasy option. Rex Burkhead returned, but to a much smaller role. He only carried the ball four times and caught just one pass, but he was reinstated as the goal line back. So Burkhead isn’t a viable option, but he is around to do just enough to damage Lewis’ value. It’s annoying, but it’s the Patriots.

James White’s apparent resurgence is fool’s gold. He’s only touched the ball 14 times across two playoff games. He’s certainly playing more than he did in the regular season, but 2016 James White is not walking through that door. Lewis will be the primary option with the other two sprinkling in while the Patriots rely heavily on the passing game.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tom Brady
RB1: Dion Lewis
WR2: Danny Amendola
WR3: Brandin Cooks
TE1: Rob Gronkowski
Bench: Rex Burkhead, James White, Chris Hogan

Passing Game Thoughts: Before the playoffs started, the top seeded Patriots were the overwhelming favorite to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC. But the top seeded Eagles weren’t even top three despite their first round bye. Why? Nick Foles. No one believed in him. After all, Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate before he tore his ACL so how could the Eagles possibly compete with a guy who once threw 27 touchdowns against two interceptions in a single season? Wait, Nick Foles is actually good? He certainly was two weeks ago, throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns against one of the league’s best pass defenses. Foles has started and finished four games this season. In those games, he has a 8:1 touchdown to interception ratio. This idea that the Eagles can’t win with Foles is nonsense. Can they beat the Patriots? Probably not. But they can put up a fight.

Alshon Jeffery caught two touchdowns in the Eagles win over the Vikings, but he’s still seen just five targets in each playoff game. He’s been very efficient, catching 90% of balls thrown his way, but the volume hasn’t been there, which is in line with most of his 2017.

Nelson Agholor never had volume either, but he’s had efficiency all season. His touchdown rate of scoring on 12.9% of his receptions is unsustainable. And when he doesn’t score, he doesn’t produce. Agholor’s two playoff games have shown him catch a whopping six of seven targets for 83 yards combined. He is not a viable option.

Zach Ertz certainly is, though. He bounced back after a lackluster divisional round game to catch all eight of his targets for 93 yards against the Vikings. Ertz will continue to see volume and he is the primary red zone threat as well. Ertz remains what he’s been all season – the most reliable member of the Eagles pass catching corps.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: You don’t need Jay Ajayi. The Eagles don’t need Jay Ajayi. No one needs Jay Ajayi. He’s just not that good. Ajayi averaged 4.2 yards per carry this season and although that number went up in Philly, he’s at just 3.85 across 33 playoff carries. He doesn’t get goal line carries and he doesn’t score touchdowns. He’s caught three passes in each playoff game, but Corey Clement is the passing down back and preferred option in the two minute drill. Ajayi’s receptions are less design and more dump off. While Ajayi did touch the ball 21 times in the NFC Championship game, all he’s done throughout the playoffs is post empty yards. LeGarrette Blount still comes in near the goal line. So Ajayi is a two down back that doesn’t catch passes and doesn’t score touchdowns. Not very useful. The Eagles have a strong rushing attack, but it’s a group effort. No individual player is special.

Value Meter:
QB2: Nick Foles
WR2: Alshon Jeffery
TE1: Zach Ertz
Flex: Nelson Agholor, Jay Ajayi
Bench: Corey Clement, LeGarrette Blount, Torrey Smith

Prediction: Patriots 31, Eagles 27 ^ Top

Eagles vs. Patriots - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: After being disrespected as underdogs in each of their playoff contests despite being the No.1 seed from the NFC, the Eagles now head to Minnesota for the Super Bowl, led by backup quarterback Nick Foles. Foles struggled in the first half of the team’s divisional round matchup against the Falcons but has played lights out since, leading many to believe that he might have what it takes to join Eli Manning as the only quarterback to defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots in a Super Bowl. Foles has completed an impressive 77.7 percent of his passes throughout the playoffs and he’s yet to throw an interception. He absolutely torched the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, throwing for 352 yards and three scores against what many believe to be the best defense in the league.

His favorite target continues to be wide receiver Alshon Jeffery who, after scoring two touchdowns against the Vikings, has to be considered one of the top two receivers on the board heading into Super Bowl weekend. Jeffery’s large frame and physical playstyle makes him a nightmare for any defense to match up against. The Patriots will likely attempt to slow him down by shadowing him with cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who has been one of the league’s premier shutdown cornerbacks this season. Jeffery has the ability to get into the end zone in this matchup but a big yardage game does not seem likely if Gilmore does indeed shadow him, as is expected.

With Gilmore locked up on Jeffery, wide receivers Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor could see increased target volume against lesser matchups. Smith will likely play the majority of his snaps outside opposite Jeffery, where he’ll see Malcolm Butler who has struggled at times this season but is still widely considered a solid cornerback. Meanwhile, the sneaky money matchup could actually be Agholor, who will play primarily out of the slot where he’ll be lined up frequently against Eric Rowe, a cornerback who has been far below average this season and whom the Eagles themselves traded to the Patriots after his rookie season. Agholor has been relatively quiet in the playoffs thus far, catching just three passes in each contest, thus he could be a player who is under-owned in DFS.

Last, tight end Zach Ertz will likely be lesser-owned than Rob Gronkowski thus potentially representing some sneaky value himself. The Patriots have been solid against opposing tight ends this season but they also have not played against many top players at that position. Ertz caught all eight of his targets against the Vikings for 93 yards in the NFC Championship game.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles running game continues to be effective overall but it is also one of the more frustrating units to predict for fantasy purposes as their scheme involves so many different players touching the ball. The nice thing is that the situations seem to be dictating which players are on the field, with LeGarrette Blount getting most of his snaps when the team is up in games and Corey Clement playing most of his snaps with the team down on the scoreboard or on third down. Jay Ajayi is the player who’s been getting the most consistent workload down the stretch as he has now touched the ball at least 14 times in five straight games, excluding the Eagles’ Week 17 game against the Cowboys when he sat due to the team resting their starters. Ajayi hasn’t been spectacular with those touches and he’s only scored one touchdown all season in the running game so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to put up gaudy numbers against a Patriots defense that conceded a league-fewest five rushing touchdowns on the season. But, he remains the most likely player to get consistent touches in this backfield, regardless of the scoring situation.

Blount, meanwhile, has been primarily utilized as a bulldozer down the stretch and at the goal line, where he’s scored in back-to-back games. Again, the Patriots are very stingy against the run near the endzone so there’s really no guarantee that he’ll get in even if he does get a carry inside the five. Perhaps most importantly, however, is that Blount has not carried the ball more than nine times in a game since all the way back in Week 12. Another five to 10 carries seems probable in this game, which doesn’t leave a lot of upside for fantasy purposes.

Clement is a boom or bust PPR play as he has been utilized in a pass catching role in recent weeks, but his playing time overall has been limited. He has not carried the ball more than six times in a game since Week 9 so, like Blount, his upside is tied to game script and situation which is very risky. Don’t bother with him in non-PPR formats and he’s probably the third-best option in this backfield even in PPR formats.

Value Meter:
QB1: Nick Foles
RB1: Jay Ajayi
RB2: LeGarrette Blount
WR1: Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jeffery
TE1: Zach Ertz
Bench: Corey Clement, Torrey Smith, Brent Celek, Trey Burton

Passing Game Thoughts: Back again and looking for his NFL record sixth Super Bowl ring, Tom Brady finds his team as the favorite in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles. Brady’s “down” season in 2017 was still one of the league’s best stat lines as he threw for 4,576 yards and 32 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. He did struggle down the stretch in the regular season but has since bounced back in the playoffs, absolutely annihilating the Titans for 337 yards and three scores before embarrassing the league’s best secondary this past week when he threw for 290 yards and two scores against the Jaguars.

As usual, Brady has been looking to his monster tight end Rob Gronkowski for stability in the passing game, but he showed his ability to change that up if necessary when Gronkowski was knocked out of the AFC title game with a concussion. Brady then turned to receivers Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan who all had productive days against the vaunted Jacksonville secondary. Amendola will most likely be locked up against one of the league’s premier slot cornerbacks, Pat Robinson, on Sunday; which should lead to additional work for the outside receivers. Brandin Cooks’ speed is always a wild card and he’s capable of getting deep on just about anyone but he is expected to be lined up often against Ronald Darby who has played very well this season.

The matchup to watch could be whoever is lined up against cornerback Jalen Mills, most likely Chris Hogan on most downs, and that player will be up against the weak link in this secondary. Mills hasn’t been terrible but he’s been the most average player of the bunch so look for the Patriots to exploit that. Obviously Gronkowski and Brady are the top players at their position in the Super Bowl and will be priced as such in DFS formats, but both players are also capable of returning game-winning performances for fantasy owners, so they’re worth the price of entry.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: Like the Eagles, the Patriots continue to frustrate fantasy owners with their committee-style backfield, but this is nothing new if you’ve been following the team for any length of time. The faces might change but the Patriots will seemingly always implement some sort of split backfield in order to keep players healthy and utilize those players’ skill sets in ideal situations.

That coaching style has led to the Patriots producing three top-50 backs this season, with Dion Lewis leading the way is the team’s primary ball carrier. Lewis did, however, fail to reach double-digit carries this past week against the Jaguars for just the second time since Week 6, which should give fantasy owners some pause heading into the Super Bowl. However, it’s worth noting that the Patriots were having success passing the ball and thus they relied on Brady’s arm more than most expected they would. Lewis still led the team in carries by a fairly wide margin and his role in the backfield seems to be the most solidified. He should be the top running back on the board in this matchup, even against an Eagles defense that conceded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. There just isn’t much that we can trust out of these two backfields so Lewis’ high volume, combined with his usage at the goal line, makes him easily the highest upside back in the Super Bowl.

The next-best option in New England would be James White, who held off the returning Rex Burkhead in the AFC Championship game, occupying the role as the Patriots’ top pass catching back. Lewis could see added work if this game does become a shootout as the Patriots have been known to lean on Brady and the passing game in those situations, but Lewis is still best used in PPR formats. Burkhead has to be considered a bench player for the Super Bowl but the Patriots are always a threat to completely change things up and confuse everyone, so he does have some upside if he’s priced cheap on your DFS site.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tom Brady
RB1: Dion Lewis
RB2: James White (PPR)
WR2: Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan
TE1: Rob Gronkowski
Flex: Danny Amendola
Bench: Rex Burkhead

Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 23 ^ Top