Passing
Game Thoughts: One year ago, Tom Brady led the Patriots
to an AFC Championship without Rob Gronkowski. This year, at the
age of 40, Brady did the same thing…except he didn’t
have Julian Edelman either. Sunday will be the first time a 40-year-old
starts a Super Bowl.
It’s funny how the Patriots can just shift their offense
however they want based on situation. For the entire second half
of the season, they relied a lot on their running game. Brady’s
passing yards hovered around the low 200s. The playoffs hit and
the old man flipped a switch. The interception throwing QB was
gone and replacing him was vintage Tom Brady with games of 337
and 290 yards and a five-to-zero touchdown to pick ratio. Brady’s
playoffs yards per attempt (6.89) is well below his career average
(7.5) and indicates more of a dinking and dunking approach. It’s
been working.
Brandin Cooks played quite well in the AFC title game, but even
his 6-100 game left yards on the board, which is the story of
Cooks’ season. Danny Amendola has been the man for Brady
in these playoffs. His target count in the playoffs (13 and 9)
is more than he had in any game in the regular season (he had
9 twice). Amendola’s 196 yards, 18 receptions, and two touchdowns
easily makes for the best two game stretch of the season for him.
He has emerged as the clear top receiving option for Brady –
even ahead of Cooks. Chris Hogan has become an afterthought since
his injury.
Gronk will be cleared in time for the game and should resume
doing typical Gronk things. He’s scored a touchdown in his
last six full playoff games. In the playoffs, the Patriots have
been a pass dominant offense. That should not change in the final
game of the season.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis had a massively inefficient
AFC Championship game, but he still touched the ball 16 times.
Lewis has 16 receptions through two playoff games and is being
used purposefully on screens. He remains the only trustworthy
fantasy option. Rex Burkhead returned, but to a much smaller role.
He only carried the ball four times and caught just one pass,
but he was reinstated as the goal line back. So Burkhead isn’t
a viable option, but he is around to do just enough to damage
Lewis’ value. It’s annoying, but it’s the Patriots.
James White’s apparent resurgence is fool’s gold.
He’s only touched the ball 14 times across two playoff games.
He’s certainly playing more than he did in the regular season,
but 2016 James White is not walking through that door. Lewis will
be the primary option with the other two sprinkling in while the
Patriots rely heavily on the passing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Before the playoffs started, the top seeded
Patriots were the overwhelming favorite to reach the Super Bowl
in the AFC. But the top seeded Eagles weren’t even top three
despite their first round bye. Why? Nick Foles. No one believed
in him. After all, Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate before he
tore his ACL so how could the Eagles possibly compete with a guy
who once threw 27 touchdowns against two interceptions in a single
season? Wait, Nick Foles is actually good? He certainly was two
weeks ago, throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns against
one of the league’s best pass defenses. Foles has started
and finished four games this season. In those games, he has a
8:1 touchdown to interception ratio. This idea that the Eagles
can’t win with Foles is nonsense. Can they beat the Patriots?
Probably not. But they can put up a fight.
Alshon Jeffery caught two touchdowns in the Eagles win over the
Vikings, but he’s still seen just five targets in each playoff
game. He’s been very efficient, catching 90% of balls thrown
his way, but the volume hasn’t been there, which is in line
with most of his 2017.
Nelson Agholor never had volume either, but he’s had efficiency
all season. His touchdown rate of scoring on 12.9% of his receptions
is unsustainable. And when he doesn’t score, he doesn’t
produce. Agholor’s two playoff games have shown him catch
a whopping six of seven targets for 83 yards combined. He is not
a viable option.
Zach Ertz certainly is, though. He bounced back after a lackluster
divisional round game to catch all eight of his targets for 93
yards against the Vikings. Ertz will continue to see volume and
he is the primary red zone threat as well. Ertz remains what he’s
been all season – the most reliable member of the Eagles
pass catching corps.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: You don’t need Jay Ajayi. The Eagles
don’t need Jay Ajayi. No one needs Jay Ajayi. He’s
just not that good. Ajayi averaged 4.2 yards per carry this season
and although that number went up in Philly, he’s at just
3.85 across 33 playoff carries. He doesn’t get goal line
carries and he doesn’t score touchdowns. He’s caught
three passes in each playoff game, but Corey Clement is the passing
down back and preferred option in the two minute drill. Ajayi’s
receptions are less design and more dump off. While Ajayi did
touch the ball 21 times in the NFC Championship game, all he’s
done throughout the playoffs is post empty yards. LeGarrette Blount
still comes in near the goal line. So Ajayi is a two down back
that doesn’t catch passes and doesn’t score touchdowns.
Not very useful. The Eagles have a strong rushing attack, but
it’s a group effort. No individual player is special.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After being disrespected as underdogs in
each of their playoff contests despite being the No.1 seed from
the NFC, the Eagles now head to Minnesota for the Super Bowl,
led by backup quarterback Nick Foles. Foles struggled in the first
half of the team’s divisional round matchup against the
Falcons but has played lights out since, leading many to believe
that he might have what it takes to join Eli Manning as the only
quarterback to defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots in a Super Bowl.
Foles has completed an impressive 77.7 percent of his passes throughout
the playoffs and he’s yet to throw an interception. He absolutely
torched the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, throwing for
352 yards and three scores against what many believe to be the
best defense in the league.
His favorite target continues to be wide receiver Alshon Jeffery
who, after scoring two touchdowns against the Vikings, has to
be considered one of the top two receivers on the board heading
into Super Bowl weekend. Jeffery’s large frame and physical
playstyle makes him a nightmare for any defense to match up against.
The Patriots will likely attempt to slow him down by shadowing
him with cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who has been one of the league’s
premier shutdown cornerbacks this season. Jeffery has the ability
to get into the end zone in this matchup but a big yardage game
does not seem likely if Gilmore does indeed shadow him, as is
expected.
With Gilmore locked up on Jeffery, wide receivers Torrey Smith
and Nelson Agholor could see increased target volume against lesser
matchups. Smith will likely play the majority of his snaps outside
opposite Jeffery, where he’ll see Malcolm Butler who has
struggled at times this season but is still widely considered
a solid cornerback. Meanwhile, the sneaky money matchup could
actually be Agholor, who will play primarily out of the slot where
he’ll be lined up frequently against Eric Rowe, a cornerback
who has been far below average this season and whom the Eagles
themselves traded to the Patriots after his rookie season. Agholor
has been relatively quiet in the playoffs thus far, catching just
three passes in each contest, thus he could be a player who is
under-owned in DFS.
Last, tight end Zach Ertz will likely be lesser-owned than Rob
Gronkowski thus potentially representing some sneaky value himself.
The Patriots have been solid against opposing tight ends this
season but they also have not played against many top players
at that position. Ertz caught all eight of his targets against
the Vikings for 93 yards in the NFC Championship game.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles running game continues to be
effective overall but it is also one of the more frustrating units
to predict for fantasy purposes as their scheme involves so many
different players touching the ball. The nice thing is that the
situations seem to be dictating which players are on the field,
with LeGarrette Blount getting most of his snaps when the team
is up in games and Corey Clement playing most of his snaps with
the team down on the scoreboard or on third down. Jay Ajayi is
the player who’s been getting the most consistent workload
down the stretch as he has now touched the ball at least 14 times
in five straight games, excluding the Eagles’ Week 17 game
against the Cowboys when he sat due to the team resting their
starters. Ajayi hasn’t been spectacular with those touches
and he’s only scored one touchdown all season in the running
game so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to put
up gaudy numbers against a Patriots defense that conceded a league-fewest
five rushing touchdowns on the season. But, he remains the most
likely player to get consistent touches in this backfield, regardless
of the scoring situation.
Blount, meanwhile, has been primarily utilized as a bulldozer
down the stretch and at the goal line, where he’s scored
in back-to-back games. Again, the Patriots are very stingy against
the run near the endzone so there’s really no guarantee
that he’ll get in even if he does get a carry inside the
five. Perhaps most importantly, however, is that Blount has not
carried the ball more than nine times in a game since all the
way back in Week 12. Another five to 10 carries seems probable
in this game, which doesn’t leave a lot of upside for fantasy
purposes.
Clement is a boom or bust PPR play as he has been utilized in
a pass catching role in recent weeks, but his playing time overall
has been limited. He has not carried the ball more than six times
in a game since Week 9 so, like Blount, his upside is tied to
game script and situation which is very risky. Don’t bother
with him in non-PPR formats and he’s probably the third-best
option in this backfield even in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Back again and looking for his NFL record
sixth Super Bowl ring, Tom Brady finds his team as the favorite
in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles. Brady’s “down”
season in 2017 was still one of the league’s best stat lines
as he threw for 4,576 yards and 32 touchdowns with just eight
interceptions. He did struggle down the stretch in the regular
season but has since bounced back in the playoffs, absolutely
annihilating the Titans for 337 yards and three scores before
embarrassing the league’s best secondary this past week
when he threw for 290 yards and two scores against the Jaguars.
As usual, Brady has been looking to his monster tight end Rob
Gronkowski for stability in the passing game, but he showed his
ability to change that up if necessary when Gronkowski was knocked
out of the AFC title game with a concussion. Brady then turned
to receivers Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan who
all had productive days against the vaunted Jacksonville secondary.
Amendola will most likely be locked up against one of the league’s
premier slot cornerbacks, Pat Robinson, on Sunday; which should
lead to additional work for the outside receivers. Brandin Cooks’
speed is always a wild card and he’s capable of getting
deep on just about anyone but he is expected to be lined up often
against Ronald Darby who has played very well this season.
The matchup to watch could be whoever is lined up against cornerback
Jalen Mills, most likely Chris Hogan on most downs, and that player
will be up against the weak link in this secondary. Mills hasn’t
been terrible but he’s been the most average player of the
bunch so look for the Patriots to exploit that. Obviously Gronkowski
and Brady are the top players at their position in the Super Bowl
and will be priced as such in DFS formats, but both players are
also capable of returning game-winning performances for fantasy
owners, so they’re worth the price of entry.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Like the Eagles, the Patriots continue
to frustrate fantasy owners with their committee-style backfield,
but this is nothing new if you’ve been following the team
for any length of time. The faces might change but the Patriots
will seemingly always implement some sort of split backfield in
order to keep players healthy and utilize those players’
skill sets in ideal situations.
That coaching style has led to the Patriots producing three top-50
backs this season, with Dion Lewis leading the way is the team’s
primary ball carrier. Lewis did, however, fail to reach double-digit
carries this past week against the Jaguars for just the second
time since Week 6, which should give fantasy owners some pause
heading into the Super Bowl. However, it’s worth noting
that the Patriots were having success passing the ball and thus
they relied on Brady’s arm more than most expected they
would. Lewis still led the team in carries by a fairly wide margin
and his role in the backfield seems to be the most solidified.
He should be the top running back on the board in this matchup,
even against an Eagles defense that conceded the second-fewest
fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. There
just isn’t much that we can trust out of these two backfields
so Lewis’ high volume, combined with his usage at the goal
line, makes him easily the highest upside back in the Super Bowl.
The next-best option in New England would be James White, who
held off the returning Rex Burkhead in the AFC Championship game,
occupying the role as the Patriots’ top pass catching back.
Lewis could see added work if this game does become a shootout
as the Patriots have been known to lean on Brady and the passing
game in those situations, but Lewis is still best used in PPR
formats. Burkhead has to be considered a bench player for the
Super Bowl but the Patriots are always a threat to completely
change things up and confuse everyone, so he does have some upside
if he’s priced cheap on your DFS site.