Passing
Game Thoughts: Fantasy football can be a little odd at
times. When looking at these two teams and the rivalry they have
shared in high scoring affairs over the past few years it’s
odd to consider that Drew Brees - a guy who has thrown for over
7,000 yards in 23 career games against Atlanta - enters this game
as a borderline fantasy starter. A lack of touchdowns has prevented
Brees from being elite this season and that could be the case
again on Thursday night. Up until last year, the Saints’
signal caller had gone two years without a multiple-touchdown
effort in this matchup. There will be plenty of situations where
Brees could be benched but I’d give him a nod in this NFC
South clash. Michael Thomas has only played in two games against
last year’s NFC champs but he’s been tremendous with
17 receptions, 227 receiving yards and a pair of scores in those
games as a rookie last season. He’s the only receiver getting
consistent volume in the passing game to have worthwhile fantasy
value this week. Ted Ginn Jr. continues to enjoy a high catch
rate with Brees but has not been able to consistently steal enough
looks to be a trustworthy fantasy option let alone when playoff
implications are on the line. Only Denver and Philadelphia have
given up more receiving touchdowns to running backs this season
so Brees and his running backs will continue to serve as the primary
option behind Thomas in the passing attack.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans running backs have scored
at least 100 fantasy points or more than 30 NFL teams in 2017
using standard scoring. This backfield has been the most productive
and consistent producer of fantasy on the year and they look primed
for another solid outing against a run defense that has been merely
average for most of the year. Mark Ingram rebounded quite nicely
against the Panthers last week. He has now gone over 100 total
yards and scored a touchdown in three of the last four games.
He remains a fixture in fantasy lineups as a low end RB1 this
week. Alvin Kamara is the hottest guy at the craps table these
days. He has scored a receiving touchdown in five of the past
six games and has surpassed Ingram to come into the week as the
third highest scoring fantasy running back on the year. Don’t
mess with success here folks, start him in all formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In case you didn’t think Minnesota’s
defense wasn’t good, look at Julio Jones’ game log
from Week 13. Ouch. I was expecting a down week, but that performance
was rough to have in your lineup. Good news is that Xavier Rhodes
left town so Jones, Ryan and the rest of the gang will be going
up against a good but not stifling Saints pass defense on Thursday
night. As I mentioned above, recent years have made this matchup
a high scoring fantasy plunder but that is not the case in 2017.
Ryan and the Falcons offense are not flying quite as high as they
were a year ago. They are still very capable of putting up big
numbers but that is only if the running game is getting stuffed.
Jones enters this week with the tenth most targets at his position
and remains a must start WR1 for that reason alone. The Saints
know how deadly he can be but so does Matt Ryan in a must win
game. Beyond Jones, Matty Ice has had a habit of distributing
the ball to multiple receivers making it difficult for fantasy
owners to identify a secondary target. Mohamed Sanu is the most
likely to garner enough looks to have WR3 appeal but I’m
not convinced he will deliver. If your playoff hopes were on the
line, are you throwing to Jones or Sanu, Gabriel, Hooper, etc.?
I’m more inclined to start Ryan than Brees but not by much.
I like Ryan’s upside a bit more to make him a better low-end
QB1 start, but I’m not chasing anyone in the Falcons’
passing game this week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Coming off a concussion in last week’s
game, Devonta Freeman did about what was expected. He had his
touches limited to thirteen in a losing effort but was able to
grind out 81 total yards in a RB2 effort. This should give his
owners plenty of confidence coming into this week’s Thursday
night action where he finds himself facing off against a team
he has enjoyed plenty of success against in recent years. Freeman
has racked up over 600 total yards from scrimmage in his last
four outings against the Saints while adding five touchdowns.
That’s a good thing because he hasn’t scored since
October 1st and his owners are having a hard time trusting him.
The Falcons need Freeman to anchor the offense on long extended
drives and being another week removed from his concussion should
give him the touches needed to deliver for his owners in Week
14. Tevin Coleman is getting just enough playing time to eat away
at Freeman’s upside and tends to be a stronger Flex option
in higher scoring games. New Orleans has allowed a receiving touchdown
to a Falcons’ running backs in every game played over the
past two years. Whether it is Freeman or Coleman, fantasy owners
should take advantage of a slightly higher ceiling this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Doug Baldwin hasn’t snared more than
five passes in any of the team’s previous four games. He’s
remained moderately productive, but his floor seems to be lower
than it should for a primary receiver in an offense led by Russell
Wilson. He’s fallen into the WR3 ranks and gets knocked
down a few more pegs with an unfavorable matchup this weekend.
He’s got a better chance of getting a splinter on your fantasy
bench than he does of scoring a touchdown in your fantasy lineup.
That could change however if Jaguars DB Jalen Ramsey (ankle) isn’t
able to play. The guy taking over the passing game is TE Jimmy
Graham. He’s been on fire with 9 touchdowns over the last
8 games and should be a tough match up for a quality Jags defense.
Russell Wilson is a tougher decision. The Jags pass rush is an
X-factor that has the potential to completely derail a team’s
passing game. They are good enough to contain Wilson’s “escapability”
and prevent a snuff out a few drives that might normally continue.
He’s playing on the road, across the country against a tough
motivated team. Wilson is a gamer, but the cards are stacked against
him this week. Less room to run and less touchdown potential put
him outside the top ten for me this week. Paul Richardson will
get his looks as well but like Baldwin, a lower floor makes him
too risky to start.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: The M.A.S.H. unit that is the Seattle
backfield comes into Jacksonville this week with plenty of fantasy
intrigue. If you have been riding Mike Davis you will probably
continue to need him for this game and that’s not the worst
situation. There are a lot of potential mouths to feed with J.D.
McKissic, Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls hanging around for scraps
but it looks like the Seahawks are giving the lion’s share
of the workload to Davis. The Jags are less dominating against
the run and Seattle’s defense should do well enough to make
this a close game throughout. All of these factors lean towards
a productive RB2 outing for Davis. Any of the others could vulture
a touchdown but that hardly makes a compelling case for the other
members of this RBBC to be a useful fantasy option for Week 14.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles reminded everyone that he
can be good for fantasy owners last week but chucking up over
300 yards passing against the Colts. I wouldn’t call it
luck, but the outing is an isolated event not likely to repeat
itself this week. Seattle hasn’t been the same after injuries
struck the core of their pass defense. They are still better than
the many NFL teams but I’d consider them more in the average
group these days. Mining the few fantasy nuggets out of the Jags
passing game isn’t a task everyone will want to explore
but owners in deeper leagues may decide to give it shot. MAY want
to give it a shot…Bortles hasn’t been able to reach
300 passing yards against anyone other than the Colts this year.
Furthermore, that 73-percent completion rate a week ago is a total
outlier from the rest of his output this year. The only avenue
that makes Bortles a useful fantasy starter this week is if his
passing attempts take a leap forward and even then his season
long yards per attempt of 6.7 is ugly. The gloomy forecast for
Bortles makes everyone in the passing game an extremely risky
fantasy option this week. Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook are the
likeliest to produce for the believers out there. Lee averages
a little over 30 more receiving yards per game at home while Westbrook
has six receptions in back to back games. Neither player is a
decent starter but if you are left scraping the bottom of the
barrel in deep formats they might just do the trick.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: This week will reveal plenty about Leonard
Fournette as a player and as a fantasy running back. The rookie
and his offensive line showed signs of slowing down in the longer
NFL season and this week’s opponent has shut down plenty
of rushing attacks this season. They will certainly make it tough
for Jacksonville but Fournette should still see enough touches
to be a useful start - just don’t pencil him in as a top
15 running back this week. I see more drives ending with a field
goal rather than a touchdown so there is some boom or bust to
Fournette’s game. If you don’t have the depth to keep
him on the bench this week, he still warrants low end RB2 consideration.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jimmy Garoppolo is in place as the quarterback
of the future and the early returns suggest a bright future is
in store for the Bay area fans. There isn’t enough talent
surrounding him for immediate fantasy stardom but the arrow is
pointing up coming off a game in which he completed 70-percent
of his passes. Aldrick Robinson and Marquise Goodwin can get deep
but neither are worthy of the “dangerous” label. Goodwin’s
eight receptions against the Bears on the road are nothing to
sneeze at especially when determining who the new quarterback
trusts over the team’s final games. Rolling with Goodwin
for a repeat performance is a good gamble this week. Slot receivers
and tight ends work well with inexperienced quarterbacks and the
guy likely to fill that role is Trent Taylor. He’s worth
a look in PPR leagues but I’d be hesitant to make him a
WR3 in standard scoring because the touchdown potential for a
5-foot 8-inch slot man is rather low in the NFL.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: The playoffs are out of sight so it’s
not uncommon for teams to take a look at the younger players on
the roster. Perhaps this explains the uptick in Matt Breida’s
workload against the Bears or is it simply the team wanting to
give its veteran horse more rest down the stretch. Either way
points to Hyde potentially losing a few touches over the final
month of the regular season. That being said, Hyde remains the
starting back and should continue to see the majority of carries
for the 49ers. Houston offers plenty of fantasy potential for
Hyde. The Texans are allowing over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown
to opposing running backs over the past three weeks. The ceiling
is capped for Hyde owners but his high floor place him in the
middle of the RB2 options this week. The aforementioned Breida’s
workload isn’t conclusive enough to make him another more
than a notable handcuff down the stretch. If you are playoff bound
and he is available, he might be a good guy to pluck off the wire.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The damage to the Texans offense continued
this week with the team placing starters Bruce Ellington (hamstring)
and C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) on IR. Braxton Miller shoots
up the depth chart and Will Fuller is expected back from his rib
injury. In a better offense Miller and Fuller might prove to be
a timely fantasy pickup but the Texans are nosediving heading
into December football. Tom Savage hasn’t been dreadful
but the lack of touchdowns severely cuts into the upside of Hopkins.
The added injuries only make it easier for teams to key in on
Houston’s best offensive playmaker putting even more pressure
on the turnover prone Tom Savage. Few receivers in the NFL are
getting as many passes thrown their way as DeAndre Hopkins so
keep him plugged into your lineup and hope he can turn one into
a score. The rest of the team’s pass catchers offer plenty
of risk. The 49ers have given up the fifth most fantasy points
to opposing tight ends over the past five games. Savage hasn’t
consistently thrown to his tight ends this year but there are
not many guys left. As a result, expected starter Stephen Anderson
becomes a boom or bust TE play for Week 14.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: On the year, San Fran has been a great
matchup for opposing running backs but they have been excellent
lately, yielding only 13 fantasy points and zero rushing touchdowns
over their past five contests. Like Hopkins, Lamar Miller is going
to get the rock…and the defense knows it. Unlike Hopkins’
ability to simply run faster, jump higher and make highlight reel
grabs, Miller must navigate his way through a considerable number
of defenders swarming him every time he takes a handoff. He has
been held to 61 rushing or less in every game since Week 5 and
has only two touchdowns over his last five games. Miller has not
proven to be a guy that can carry the offense, let alone one that
desperately needs him to do so. Sadly, this is one 15-touch player
I’d consider sitting this week. As expected. Alfred Blue
took minimal carries in a reserve role last week but will miss
Week 14. Meanwhile Andre Ellington settled into a pass catching
role and will be a low-end flex option for PPR leaguers once again
against the 49ers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s tougher to run against the Panthers
than throw against them. That doesn’t mean Case Keenum is
going to blow anyone away this week but it also doesn’t
mean you should avoid your Vikings’ receivers. This group
of receivers has accounted for the eleventh most fantasy points
amongst all NFL teams despite using multiple quarterbacks throughout
the year. Stefon Diggs let me down last week with only two receptions
on five targets. It’s tough to expect more targets when
you are not catching the ones you do get. Without the upside of
touchdowns, Diggs’ current floor is looking awfully low
these days. On the other hand, Adam Thielen had his least productive
game in over a month. That had more to do with the game dictating
less passing than it did his performance. Look for him to bounce
back to his usual levels this week. Case Keenum may not have wowed
anyone with his overall numbers, but the fact he nearly posted
his fifth straight game with at least 20 fantasy points despite
attempting only 30 passes speaks to the efficiency this guy is
delivering his fantasy clients. He may not be sexy but he’ll
be another safe play at the position this week.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Minnesota has one of the steadiest RB2s
in Latavius Murray. Pushed aside by rookie Dalvin Cook earlier
in the year, Murray has paced the team with at least 14 touches
in every game since taking over in Week 5. He has also gone over
75 yards rushing in each of the last three weeks and tallied three
rushing touchdowns in that same span. The Vikings aren’t
throwing the ball all over the field and a large part of that
is due to Murray grinding out yards on the ground. With the weather
getting colder he’s looking like an underrated fantasy playoff
performer. The difficult matchup is worth noting but I’ll
take my chances with rare consistency that Murray brings to the
table. Keep him planted in your RB2 slot and hope for a touchdown
to get you into Week 15. Jerick McKinnon is serving as the pass-catching
caddie to Murray. He’s a liability facing a tough defense
without optimal touches so keep him parked on your fantasy bench
for Week 14.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton and company have had a bumpy
ride this season. It hasn’t all been bad with Devin Funchess
emerging as a very productive fantasy asset most weeks and Greg
Olsen likely back in the mix-more on that later. However, they
do not match up well against the Vikings on paper or on the field.
If Obi Wan Kenobi were here, he would tell you to “Go away,
these are not the fantasy players you are looking for.”
Devin Funchess has height going for him and Cam is big enough
to avoid sacks but I don’t trust him putting the ball in
tight windows. That’s what he will need to do for the Panthers
to win this game. Greg Olsen returned from foot surgery then sat
out last week with soreness in the same foot. He’s been
at practice this week and is on track to play but his owners should
take a cautious approach and leave him on the bench. Not only
is there a chance he sees less snaps or leaves the game entirely
but the tough matchup means there is less reward for the risks
taken in starting him.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Back to back games with a rushing touchdown
for Jonathan Stewart? What is going on here? Hold the phones people,
Stewart has only reached double digit fantasy points in three
games all year and wasn’t able to do so two weeks ago WITH
a touchdown under his belt. His good days are below average and
he should only serve as depth on your fantasy squad. The Panthers
have won four of their past games because they have been better
at using Christian McCaffrey to better out of the backfield. The
rookie has put up at least nine fantasy points over the past month
by averaging over five yards per carry during that span. The only
team to keep McCaffery contained was also the team that snapped
their winning streak. The dual threat running back represents
the Panthers’ best option to move the ball down the field
and will be the toughest guy for the Vikings to defend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is trying to get his hand
feeling better in time to be effective against the Bucs this week.
Reports out of Detroit indicate that the quarterback is making
progress but his status is very much in question. The Lions are
fighting for a playoff spot, Stafford hasn’t missed a game
in forever and their backup has five career passing attempts…
this bruise sounds painful but I’m guessing the Lions will
figure a way to get Stafford on the field Sunday. Fortunately,
Tampa Bay is the type of opponent that can make any quarterback
look at least decent. That being said there are a number of elements
to consider before relying on Stafford as your quarterback this
week. Can he grip the football? Will he be make it through the
entire game? Detroit isn’t likely to drop back and throw
it 40 times with a quarterback nursing an injury on his throwing
hand so you might want to find another quarterback this week.
The injury lowers the ceiling for the receivers as well so downgrade
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones to the WR3 tier. I am not too worried
about them playing well when they get their chances but I am worried
that they may see fewer targets in this game. The least interesting
guy in Detroit’s passing game of late is TE Eric Ebron.
He hasn’t scored a touchdown or gone over 50 receiving yards
in three weeks. With Stafford banged up and the likelihood of
more running plays being called he remains bench fodder this weekend.
If Stafford can’t play or has to come out early after starting,
it will be Rudock under center for the Lions. It may not come
to that but the second-year man out of Michigan is untested at
the NFL level but he wouldn’t be playing the toughest defense
either. In the event he must play I still like the top two wideouts
with everyone else in the passing game on the bench.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah has been limited in practice
with a neck injury last week and into this week. They really need
the running game to step up this week so keep a watchful eye on
the status of Abdullah leading up to kickoff. Theo Riddick matched
his season high of nine carries a week ago but could be in line
for even more work if the Lions have to go another week without
Abdullah. In that scenario expect the team to work Tion Green
and Zach Zenner into the mix. As the best healthy running back
going into a game that will want to reduce its passing attempts,
Riddick is a flex option regardless of Abdullah’s status
so get him ready to go for Week 14.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston has a great opportunity to
get his team back on track this weekend facing the Lions. The
Lions have not been keeping teams off the scoreboard and have
given up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
over the past three weeks. That should signal Winston owners to
plug him in this week and hope he reverts back to his play earlier
in the year. Playing at home for the first time since Week 8,
look for Evans to rebound from his dismal two-catch outing a week
ago and take advantage of the vulnerable Lions secondary. Regardless
of volume, Desean Jackson hasn’t been much help to fantasy
owners. The most promising secondary pass catchers in the offense
lie with the tight ends. Winston helped Cameron Brate find the
end zone for the first time since Week 6. His six targets were
the most he has seen since Week 7. The added work for Brate coincided
with O.J. Howard’s least productive fantasy day in three
weeks. It will be tough to determine which tight end will have
the better outing each week making both players hit or miss TE1s
this week.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin practiced in full this week
and is on track to play in Sunday’s tilt against the Lions.
He has extra motivation to get back after watching Peyton Barber
fill in with a 100-yard performance against the Packers in Week
13. Barber figures to take a back seat to Martin if the incumbent
can return this week so Barber’s fantasy value this week
is entirely dependent on the health of the Muscle Hamster. Detroit
has given up the third most fantasy points to opposing running
backs over the past three weeks making either player a worthwhile
RB2 for fantasy purposes. Barber wouldn’t be a factor in
a reserve role so monitor the practice reports coming out Tampa
throughout the week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brett Hundley failed to capitalize on a
great matchup at home against a Tampa Bay team that ranks in the
bottom 12 in points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers,
with just 10.8 fantasy points on 84 passing yards in a 26-20 win
at Lambeau Field. Considering Hundley entered the game on the
heels of a career-high three-touchdown performance, it was shocking
that he completed just 59% of his throws against one of the league’s
worst pass defenses.
Trusting Hundley, even against a Cleveland pass defense that
allows the 12th-most points to opposing quarterbacks is a risky
proposition for fantasy owners looking to make or advance in the
playoffs. The same can be said of Jordy Nelson, a top-5 wide receiver
with Aaron Rodgers under center who now has zero fantasy value
with Hundley running the offense. Nelson has scored 10.83 fantasy
points combined in the six games started by Hundley. A shockingly-low
number when you consider that Nelson scored more points in three
of his five games with Rodgers, including 19.5 points against
Chicago Week 4.
Despite a disappointing 4.2 point showing against the Bucs last
week, Davante Adams continues to be the one skill position player
in the Green Bay passing game worthy of a start. Jason McCourty
is a talented cover cornerback who will likely shadow Adams, but
Adams should still garner around ten targets and is worthy of
a start as a low-end No.2 WR.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Williams took advantage of injuries
to Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery to take control of the lead back
role for head coach Mike McCarthy. Over the past four games, Williams
has been a fantasy workhorse will 91 touches and at least 95 yards
from scrimmage (Only Le’Veon Bell has more touches over
that span).
Although the way to find success moving the ball against Cleveland
this season is through the air and not the ground, the Browns
have started to struggle against the run over the past month.
Leonard Fournette and Joe Mixon each topped the century mark against
Cleveland over the past month, while Melvin Gordon and Austin
Ekeler combined for 158 total yards last week.
The decline of the Browns run defense coincides with the loss
of linebacker Jamie Collins due to an MCL tear against the Lions.
Without Collins patrolling the line of scrimmage behind defensive
tackles Danny Shelton and Trevon Coley, the Browns are nowhere
near the same team as they were earlier in the year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: DeShone Kizer completed 15 of 32 passes
for 215 yards against a stout Los Angeles Chargers defense on
Sunday, with one passing touchdown and one interception. Kizer
added five rushes for 46 yards to finish with a respectable 19.4
fantasy points to finish as the No.16 quarterback for the week,
ahead of Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr,
and Drew Brees.
The big story from the Week 13 matchup was the return of Josh
Gordon, who played in his first game since Week 16 of the 2014
season. Gordon looked impressive against Casey Hayward and put
away doubts about his game shape, with four catches for 85 yards
on 11 targets. Gordon made a couple of impressive catches down
the sideline and was constently open against one of the best cornerbacks
in the game. Even Hayward was impressed by the performance by
Gordon, stating that the former Baylor star was the most difficult
wide receiver to cover this season. It should be noted that Hayward
and the Chargers have played against some of the best wide receivers
in the league, including Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas,
Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, and Dez Bryant.
Gordon and Kizer should find it much easier to move the ball
through the air this week, as the Packers allow the fourth-most
points to opposing wide receivers, behind only Dallas, Kansas
City, and Tampa Bay. The Packers have allowed 12 different double-digit
performances this season by an opposing wide receiver, including
multi-touchdown games by Antonio Brown and Marvin Jones.
Streaming quarterback owners with a high-risk tolerance may want
to consider starting Kizer in what could be a 20-plus point game
vs. Green Bay. It is a must-win game for the Packers, but the
Browns will also be motivated in what is their best shot in avoiding
the dreaded winless season. Although Kizer is dead last in completion
percentage inside the red zone, he leads his team in red zone
carries from the five-yard line or closer, and Gordon now gives
him a viable big target in the end zone.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers and the Buccaneers are the
only two teams to rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed
to both wide receivers and running backs, making all skill position
players on Cleveland attractive plays on Sunday. An opposing back
has finished with at least ten fantasy points in all but one game
this season against the Packers, including Peyton Barber of the
Buccaneers, who posted 143 total yards on 27 touches in Week 13.
Isaiah Crowell’s 2017 season can be described as a massive
failure based on the fact that he was drafted in the first five
rounds in all formats and is currently ranked as the 43rd ranked
RB in average points scored per game (7.5). But he has improved
his efficiency over the past five contests by averaging nearly
5.0 per carry in four of his last five games. Owners who drafted
Crowell early, only to be disappointing with just two rushing
touchdowns 12 games, a home game against the Packers could be
a reward for holding onto Crowell.
Duke Johnson is an interesting play this week as well against
Green Bay, as the Pack have allowed the 8th-most receptions to
opposing running backs. Johnson burned owners last week with a
season-low point total on just 12 yards on nine touches, but he
should bounce back in a much more attractive home matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco posted his most impressive performance
of the season with a 269/2/0 line in a blowout win over the Lions
last weekend, as the Ravens won their third consecutive game.
Mike Wallace continued to be Flacco’s favorite target over
the past month with five catches for 116 yards on eight targets,
while Jeremy Maclin secured four passes for 41 yards.
Targeting tight ends continues to be a major part of the Baltimore
passing offense, with Benjamin Watson, Nick Boyle, and Maxx Williams
combining for 10 targets against the Lions, a team that has struggled
this season at stopping opponent TEs. Although the Steelers allow
the second-fewest points to tight ends on the year, Watson and
Boyle combined for ten catches for 79 yards when the two teams
faced off in Baltimore Week 4.
The surprising lack of involvement of Danny Woodhead in the passing
game has been somewhat of a head-scratcher considering how much
the team is paying Woodhead, and the type of production the veteran
running back has delivered over his career. Woodhead was given
just five touches against the Lions, despite a favorable game
script that should have been more conducive to Woodhead seeing
more action. Owners looking to advance in the playoffs may want
to consider other options until Woodhead becomes more of a focus
of the Baltimore offense.
The Ravens offense enters the game relatively healthy (not counting
the numerous Ravens already placed on IR), with Maclin as the
only offensive skill player limited in practice on Wednesday.
The vet was out of practice Thursday with a back injury so confirm
his status before putting him in your lineup.
The Steelers are not as fortunate regarding injuries, as linebacker
and defensive leader Ryan Shazier suffered a serious spinal injury
in last week’s bloodbath against the Bengals. Shazier will
not play in this game, and his long-term prognosis is in question,
which is a huge hit to the Steelers defensive unit.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Alex Collins worked through migraines
to deliver an impressive 21.8 point performance against the Lions
that included two rushing touchdowns on 98 total yards. The second-year
player from Arkansas danced an Irish jig twice for the Raven faithful,
including a six-yard scamper with four minutes left in the game
to close the door on the Lions.
The absence of Shazier in run support is a big knock for the
Steelers run defense, as the former Ohio State Buckeye is one
of the fastest linebackers in the league and excels in covering
sweeps and outside run plays with his quickness.
Buck Allen continues to work in as the change of pace and primary
receiving option out of the backfield, with Woodhead mixing in
sporadically, depending on the down an distance. The majority
of Allen’s points have come with the Ravens ahead, looking
to milk the clock and secure the lead. Unlike when the two teams
played in Baltimore, the likely game script in this game does
not bode well the Ravens building a big first-half lead.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger continues to climb up
the quarterback rankings with a fourth consecutive 20-point performance
last week against the Bengals. With 253.7 points on the year,
Big Ben now ranks higher than Jared Goff, Philip Rivers, Drew
Brees, and Matt Ryan.
Historically, Roethlisberger has not had a great deal of success
against John Harbaugh and the Ravens, completing under 60% of
his passes, while only averaging 233 passing yards per game in
20 matchups. But the Ravens will be without top cornerback Jimmy
Smith, who will miss the remainder of the season with an Achilles
injury.
The Ravens enter Week 14 allowing the second-fewest points to
opposing quarterbacks, with the Jacksonville Jaguars as the only
unit more stingy in points allowed in the passing game. An impressive
stat on the surface, yet a closer examination of the numbers reveal
a team that has had a fortuitous schedule. Cupcake matchups against
rookies DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky in their respective
second NFL game, EJ Manuel filling in for an injured Derek Carr,
career backup Matt Moore, and a struggling Marcus Mariota helped
skew the numbers for Baltimore.
Expectations of a monster game from Big Ben and the Steelers
offense should be somewhat tempered, but the absence of Smith
covering Antonio Brown on the outside and the fact that this game
is played in Pittsburgh should give Roethlisberger owners a decent
floor.
Brown continues to be an elite stud wide receiver that is worthy
of a start, regardless of the opponent. JuJu Smith-Schuster will
not play in this game due to a one-game suspension for rough block
and subsequent taunting in Monday’s win over the Bengals.
Martavis Bryant owners may look at Smith-Schuster’s absence
as a chance for Bryant to increase his target share, but it should
be noted that Bryant continued to see roughly 10% of the targets
when Smith-Schuster was out earlier in the year.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens have not allowed a 100-yard
rusher since Latavius Murray posted 113 yards and a score on 18
carries in Week 7. The improvement in run defense is largely due
to defensive tackle Brandon Williams returning to health and anchoring
the Baltimore defensive line.
With Williams out of the lineup when the two teams faced off
in Baltimore Week 4, Le’Veon Bell rushed for 144 yards and
two scores, while adding 42 yards on four catches out of the backfield.
William’s return will make running more difficult for Bell,
but the venerable tailback should still be considered an elite
option this weekend.
Bell continues to be the king of volume in fantasy football,
with 336 touches in his first 12 games. Todd Gurley ranks second
with 271 combined carries and receptions, a whopping 65 touches
fewer than Bell. When you consider that a touch target for elite
running backs is 30 touches per game, Bell owners, in essence,
have two more games of production compared to all other running
backs in the NFL.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After four games of throwing at least 30
passes in Week 8 through 12, rookie Mitchell Trubisky returned
to his early season form with only 15 pass attempts in a 15-14
loss to the 49ers at Soldier Field. It was a disappointing performance
across the board for the Bears as the team managed just 147 yards
of total offense against a team that entered the game ranked in
the top five in fantasy points allowed to QBs and RBs.
On a positive note, Trubisky completed 80% of his passes on the
day, including a nice touchdown throw to Dontrelle Inman in the
first half to put the Bears up 7-3. Inman continues to be the
only Bear receiver worthy of a start in deep leagues, with 24
targets over his last four games.
The Bengals enter the contest allowing the 22nd-most points to
opposing quarterbacks, with only Aaron Rodgers managing to throw
for three or more touchdowns in a game. Twice this season, Cincinnati
held DeShone Kizer and the Browns without a passing touchdown,
while fellow rookie Deshaun Watson failed to throw a TD when the
two teams faced off Week 2 (Before Watson went ham on the league).
Injuries to the Bengals secondary and linebacking corps are important
factors in this matchup, as Vontaze Burfict, Adam Jones, Darqueze
Denard, and Dre Kirkpatrick were all unable to practice on Wednesday
after a bloodbath game against the rival Steelers on Monday Night
Football.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard’s inability to produce
fantasy numbers at home against the San Francisco 49ers, a team
that has allowed the third-most points to opposing RBs, was one
of the most disappointing performances of the season. In a close
game in which game script should not have been an issue, Howard
carried the ball 13 times for 38 yards, while losing five yards
on his lone reception of the day.
Although he currently ranks 11th overall in points scored on
the season, Howard has been a frustrating player for fantasy owners
in that he fails to take advantage of favorable matchups as a
boom/bust player.
On paper, the Bengals appear to be a plus matchup for Howard,
as Cincinnati allows the 13-most points to opposing tailbacks
and linebacker Vontaze Burfict may not play due to a concussion
suffered on Monday against the Steelers. Sam linebacker Nick Vigil’s
absence due to a season-ending ankle injury will also be a positive
for Howard owners. But just like his dreadful performance against
the Niners, predicting usage and points for Howard has been an
exercise in futility in 2017.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Although Andy Dalton currently sits as a
low-end No.2 quarterback as the No.24-ranked QB in fantasy points
per game at 18.4, he has been much more efficient over the past
four games with nine touchdowns and no interceptions dating back
to Week 10 at the Titans. During that span, he averaged 21 points
per game, including a three-touchdown performance on the road
against the Broncos.
The change at offensive coordinator from Ken Zampese to Bill
Lazor helped turn around the season for Dalton, who has thrown
at least two touchdowns in all but two of the ten games Lazor
has called as Bengals OC.
Continuing his multi-touchdown streak may be a challenge for
Dalton, as only three opposing quarterbacks have thrown for more
than one touchdown in a game against Chicago, including Jimmy
Garoppolo, who was held scoreless despite throwing for nearly
300 yards last week.
Despite Chicago’s success in limiting opposing quarterbacks
from posting big games, A.J. Green owners should not shy away
from playing their stud receiver. Four No.1 wide receivers posted
double digits against the Bears over the past month, with Marvin
Jones, Davante Adams, and Alshon Jeffery each reaching the end
zone. Throwing passing touchdowns against the Bears has been a
difficult task in 2017, but wide receivers have still been able
to post solid games vs. cornerbacks Sam Acho and Prince Amukamara.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals are also hurting on the offensive
side of the ball with running back Joe Mixon missing practice
due to a concussion. As of Thursday, he has yet to clear the protocol
and looks iffy to play against the Bears.
Giovani Bernard will get the start and carry most of the load
for the Bengals should Mixon be inactive on Sunday. Bernard played
well for head coach Marvin Jones when Mixon left the game on Monday
Night, rushing for 77 yards on 13 carries while adding 19 yards
on two catches out of the backfield.
The Bears rank in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed
to opposing running backs. No tailback has managed to reach the
century mark this season vs. Chicago, although seven players posted
double-digit performances against the Bears, highlighted by Jerick
McKinnon’s 20.6 point outburst Week 5.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chiefs are one of the league’s
worst pass defenses and they’ll be down their best player
in the secondary this week as they host the Raiders. The team
opted to suspend cornerback Marcus Peters for his actions late
in Week 13 when he picked up a referee’s penalty flag off
of the turf and flung it into the stands. The decision comes at
a dangerous time for Kansas City as they are amidst a big slide
and could potentially fall to third in the AFC West with a loss
to Oakland. The Raiders passing game has struggled this season
but they absolutely torched the Chiefs defense – and that
was with Peters – when these teams played back in Week 7.
That was the one and only “big” game from receiver
Amari Cooper this season who has been one of the biggest disappointments
in fantasy football this season. Cooper is recovered from the
concussion that kept him out in Week 13 but an ankle injury has
kept him out of practice through Thursday this week and he will
likely be a game-time decision. Cooper certainly makes for an
intriguing “boom or bust” fantasy option if he’s
able to suit up but there’s a real chance that he’ll
miss this game, leaving Michael Crabtree as the primary option
in the passing game.
Crabtree himself missed Week 13 due to a suspension after his
on-field brawl with Aqib Talib but he should be ready to get back
into fantasy lineups – especially if Cooper is out –
in this game. Crabtree was held to just 24 yards when these teams
met earlier this season but he did score a touchdown and he will
likely be the top target in the passing game even if Cooper is
active so a double-digit target day is not out of the question.
Tight end Jared Cook remains a mystery as he was unable to do
anything of note against the Giants, one of the worst defenses
at covering the tight end that we’ve seen in recent history.
Cook is startable due to the lack of talent at the position overall
but it wouldn’t be surprising for him to be in the single
digits for PPR points once again.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch is the type of running
back who can really lean on a defense late in games but that theory
also applies late in seasons, especially against struggling defenses
that seem to have lost its confidence. The Chiefs rank in the
top 10 at defending opposing running backs but they got lit up
by the Jets’ stable of backs this past week and they’ve
given up at least 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs
in six of their past eight contests and a rushing touchdown in
six of their past seven games. Not coincidentally, that poor stretch
comes during the Chiefs’ losing slump as opposing offenses.
Of course, the first time these teams played this season saw Lynch
get injured early on and essentially give his fantasy owners no
production whatsoever so we don’t have much to go off of
with Lynch’s ability to run against this defense but Lynch
seems to be improving as the season goes on and a solid fantasy
day seems like a good possibility here.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Just when we were ready to stick a fork
in Alex Smith and write off the end of his 2017 season as another
typical, boring, Smith-like season; the former No.1 overall NFL
Draft pick lit up the scoreboard with his biggest fantasy day
of the season. Smith keyed in on the top two targets in his passing
game, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, throwing a pair of touchdowns
to each this past week against the Jets. Kelce has been unbelievable
this season and remains a must-start TE1 in any matchup. He was
held to 33 yards – his second-lower total of the season
– when these teams matched up back in Week 7, but he was
able to score a touchdown in that contest as well. Hill, on the
other hand, torched the Raiders for six receptions, 125 yards
and a touchdown. Simply put, Oakland does not have anyone capable
of covering Hill and they will need to completely scheme around
shutting him down if they hope to take him away. If they do, Kelce
will likely have a monster day catching passes underneath. Otherwise
look for both players to produce solid WR1/TE1 numbers in what
is a great matchup. Smith himself can also be trusted as a QB1
in this matchup as his upside, combined with his high floor, make
him one of the better plays of the week.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: The struggles in the Kansas City running
game continued this past week made it nine straight games without
a touchdown in what looked like a good matchup on paper against
the Jets. Most concerning, though, is that Hunt does not seem
to be the primary focal point of the offense anymore. While no
other back has taken a significant share of snaps, Hunt is simply
not touching the ball enough to be a RB1 even if he’s rushed
for over four yards per carry in most of these games. Hunt himself
really isn’t playing that poorly which makes this all the
more frustrating for fantasy owners as we just cannot trust the
Kansas City offense to consistently put the ball in his hands.
On the bright side, Hunt did put together a solid 117 total yard
day when these teams squared off in Week 7, so there is upside
here. The Raiders have given up at least one touchdown, either
as a runner or a receiver, to an opposing running back in four
of their past five contests. Hunt will look to make it six of
seven and reestablish himself as an RB1 for the fantasy playoff
run, but for now he’s an RB2 until the Chiefs prove that
they’re willing to feed him the rock.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has now
failed to throw for even 200 yards in back-to-back games, proving
that the Titans simply don’t need him to have a big day
in order to win games. It would seem to make sense that the Titans
will look to lean on their running game and defense once again
in this week’s contest but there is some hope for Mariota
and the passing game as they match up against an Arizona secondary
that has given up multiple passing touchdowns in three of their
past four contests and ranks 30th on the season in fantasy points
given up to opposing quarterbacks. The unfortunate thing is that
we really can’t trust any of the Tennessee wide receivers
but Rishard Matthews (hamstring) is the one you’d want to
bet on as he’s been seeing the most targets and he’s
been the most efficient player with those targets. If he does
play, he may be shadowed by Patrick Peterson would limit his upside.
Corey Davis and Eric Decker are essentially non-factors for fantasy
purposes and now is not the time to be taking a chance on placing
them in your lineup. Tight end Delanie Walker should also be in
play this weekend as he’ll look to become the first tight
end since O.J. Howard back in Week 6 to go for over 30 receiving
yards against the Cardinals. It’s not an easy matchup for
the Titans tight end but he’s a definite focal point of
the passing game in Tennessee and should be utilized much more
than many of the other tight ends that have played against the
Cardinals.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: The snap count between DeMarco Murray
and Derrick Henry continues to go in Murray’s favor, which
has allowed both players to be fantasy relevant in many weeks
but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Titans are
doing themselves a disservice by not getting the ball into Henry’s
hands more often. Unfortunately, the Tennessee coaching staff
is one of the most “old school-style” regimes in the
league and resting a veteran for a young, emerging talent just
doesn’t seem to be in their plans. Because of that frustrating
reality, neither Henry nor Murray is more than a Flex option for
most teams as both players have limited upside against an Arizona
defense that has only given up one individual running back game
of 75 or more yards since Week 3 – and that came against
the league’s leading fantasy scorer at the position, Todd
Gurley.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to believe that Blaine Gabbert
would be an improvement for a passing game over his predecessor,
but that’s been the case in Arizona as the Cardinals passing
game does seem to be a bit rejuvenated with Gabbert at the helm
as opposed to Drew Stanton. Gabbert has been keeping the target
numbers high for Larry Fitzgerald which has allowed him to continue
to put up WR1 numbers most weeks. Fitzgerald has now produced
at least nine catches and 91 yards receiving in three of his past
four catches, making him one of the highest floor players in the
league despite his lack of “boom” games. The other
members of this passing game are essentially all worthless for
fantasy purposes as they’re rarely catching more than three
passes for in most games. The one exception might be tight end
Ricky Seals-Jones who has burst onto the scene over the past three
weeks, going for 170 total receiving yards and three touchdowns
over that span. Those numbers very well might be fluky but there’s
not a lot of consistency at the tight end position this season
outside of the few elite options so Seals-Jones is as good of
a dart throw as anyone as he matches up against a Titans defense
that has given up 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns to the tight
end trio of Jesse James, Jack Doyle and Stephen Anderson over
the past three weeks.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: A neck injury held Adrian Peterson out
of the Cardinals’ Week 14 matchup against the Rams and he’s
been held out of practice through Thursday this week which doesn’t
instill much confidence in us that he’ll be ready to play
this Sunday. Peterson continues to be one of the highest-volume
backs in the league since his move to Arizona and if he’s
active, that figures to continue as he runs against the Titans
defense. The problem, of course, is that Tennessee has not allowed
a single running back to rush for even 80 yards against them this
season. That doesn’t give Peterson a great ceiling but his
high usage would give him a nice floor for those who are just
looking to not have a disastrous performance out of their RB2
or Flex position. If Peterson is unable to play, chances are good
that the Cardinals will again turn to backup Kerwynn Williams
who was actually productive in replacement of Peterson, rushing
for 97 yards on 16 carries against the Rams this past week. Williams
himself suffered cracked ribs in that contest but has practiced
during the week and should be ready to play. Unfortunately, this
is a very difficult matchup against a team that likes to grind
the clock themselves which could lead to fewer total plays ran
than in most games and thus a lower potential for fantasy production,
especially at the running back position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown continues to be one of the great
fantasy stories of the 2017 season as he now ranks in the Top
8 at his position in fantasy points produced so far. McCown has
scored multiple touchdowns, whether passing or rushing, in seven
straight games, which has corresponded with a big uptick in production
from wide receiver Robby Anderson who himself now also ranks eighth
in wide receiver fantasy points in 2017. Anderson failed to score
a touchdown this past week for the first time in six games but
he was still hugely productive, catching eight passes for 107
yards, his second straight 100-yard day. Anderson and McCown have
earned themselves the right to be considered as starters even
in what looks to be a fairly difficult matchup on paper as they
go on the road to Denver.
The Broncos secondary has been good for the most part this season
but they’ve quietly been slipping as of late, having given
up multiple passing touchdowns in five straight contests. They’ll
have Aqib Talib back this week after a suspension which will help
but Robby Anderson is getting targeted heavily enough that he
should still be a WR2 for fantasy purposes. The other player to
watch is tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins who has struggled as
of late but did produce well earlier in the season. Seferian-Jenkins
will be working against a Denver defense that has given up the
third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including touchdowns
to the position in five straight games.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The formerly 50-50 split between Bilal
Powell and Matt Forte is now more of a 40-40-20 split with those
two and Elijah McGuire, which makes each of these players very
difficult to trust for fantasy purposes. Both Powell and Forte
were productive this past week in what ended up being a shootout
against the Chiefs but the Broncos are certainly not a team that
is typically going to be involved in a shootout. Denver has allowed
just three runners to go for even 70 yards on the ground against
them so the chances of an individual player in a three-headed
backfield producing a big game against them just don’t look
good. Avoid this backfield if you can, but Powell has been by
far the most effective runner of the bunch as of late and he’s
also utilized most in the passing game if you’re in a PPR
format.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You know things aren’t great when
Trevor Siemian is clearly the best quarterback on the roster.
This entire situation would be an automatic avoid for fantasy
purposes if it wasn’t so incredibly delicious from a numbers
standpoint. No team has given up more fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks than the Jets have this season. They’ve given
up multiple passing touchdowns in nine games, including a four
TD game to a struggling Alex Smith this past week. Could this
be the game that turns the Denver passing game around? It seems
unlikely that anything will make them great but this type of matchup
could at least get Demaryius Thomas back into the fantasy conversation.
Thomas has been held to 70 or fewer yards receiving in seven straight
contests but he has scored a touchdown in three of his past five.
The targets and catch rate are there for Thomas to produce in
a matchup like this but unfortunately the same is not necessarily
true for his partner in crime, Emmanuel Sanders, who has been
held to 30 or fewer receiving yards in four of his past five games
and has not scored a touchdown since Week 2. Sanders just does
not look like himself and while he’s getting a decent number
of targets, he and Siemian just do not seem to be on the same
page at the moment.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: If you thought the Denver passing game
was ugly, you probably don’t want to look at their running
game. The Broncos have not had a running back hit even 70 yards
on the ground since Week 8 and they’ve only had one 100-yard
rusher all season, when C.J. Anderson did it all the way back
in Week 2. Things have seemed to be getting worse throughout the
season as Anderson has been held to fewer than 55 yards rushing
in six of his past eight games and he’s only scored once
since Week 2. The continued usage of a three-headed backfield
including Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles has kept
all three players fresh but it has not lent itself to much fantasy
production. There was a short while when it looked like Devontae
Booker was being utilized in the passing game but he has now seen
two or fewer targets in four of his past five games, which pretty
much makes that a non-factor at this point. Anderson is the one
player you could realistically consider putting into your fantasy
lineup against but the Jets have been excellent against opposing
running games as of late, so it’d be wise to avoid this
backfield entirely if at all possible.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It hasn’t always been huge production
for Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins this season but he’s
certainly making a case for himself as being the hottest free
agent quarterback heading into 2018. Cousins currently ranks fifth
in the league in fantasy points at the quarterback position and
that’s despite some serious disappointments out of his wide
receivers, injuries at tight end and running back, and some questionable
coaching decisions. Cousins has gone for at least 20 fantasy points
in four straight contests leading into this week’s matchup
against a very good Chargers defense. Los Angeles hasn’t
allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns
against them since all the way back in Week 5 and a road game
across the country doesn’t seem like the recipe to break
that streak up. Certainly Cousins is still in the conversation
to be a fantasy starter for most teams but there are other QBs
like Matt Stafford, Dak Prescott, Alex Smith and Philip Rivers
who might also be options for some owners given their matchups.
The receiver to key in on for fantasy purposes is Jamison Crowder,
who plays most of his snaps out of the slot and will likely avoid
shutdown cornerback Casey Hayward for most of the afternoon. Instead,
look for Josh Doctson to see a lot of attention from Hayward which
will almost certainly make him a non-factor for fantasy purposes,
as if his low target share wasn’t doing that by itself.
Tight end Jordan Reed is expected to be out yet again which will
lead to Vernon Davis getting the start. Davis had been one of
the quiet TE1s in fantasy for much of the season but he has become
a ghost over the past two weeks, being targeted just three times
over that span. The tight end position is extremely weak so you
could consider playing Davis this week but the Chargers are quite
good against opposing tight ends so try to find help elsewhere
if you can.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LA2C FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers began the season as one of
the worst fantasy defenses in the league against the run but they’ve
really turned things around as of late, having allowed just two
running backs to get even 50 yards rushing since Week 6. This
will be an interesting test for Washington rookie Samaje Perine
who has stepped up as of late, compiling 325 total yards over
just his past three games since taking over the starting role.
Perine should be a good bet to get around 20 touches in the game
as long as the Redskins stay competitive on the scoreboard, which
makes him a strong case as an RB2 in any format, but he may even
be a low-end RB1 in standard scoring leagues where his lack of
receptions are not as detrimental to his overall scoring.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There aren’t many quarterbacks hotter
right now than Philip Rivers, and much of that has to be attributed
to the incredible performances of wide receiver Keenan Allen.
Allen has caught 10 or more passes in three straight games, totaling
436 yards and four touchdowns over that span. While Travis Benjamin
and Tyrell Williams have made a few big plays as of late, neither
player should be trusted as long as the Rivers-Allen combo is
clicking as well as it is. There simply aren’t enough pass
targets to go around. The only other player in this passing game
who fantasy owners should have their eye on is tight end Hunter
Henry. Henry has been extraordinarily frustrating to own this
season but he is the ninth-highest-scoring tight end on the season
and he does have back-to-back solid games heading into this week’s
contest against the Redskins. Washington is a middle-of-the-road
fantasy defense against opposing passing games as a whole but
where teams have been able to exploit them is at tight end. Opposing
TEs have scored seven times this season against the Redskins and
that includes scores in four of their past five games.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: It’s easy to overlook Melvin Gordon’s
highly productive season because it lacks many of the huge games
that other backs have had but he currently ranks sixth in the
league in fantasy points at the running back position. Gordon
continues to produce consistent numbers each week with a high
volume, both as a runner and as a pass catcher. Gordon has seen
at least 15 touches in all but one game this season and he’s
been at 20 more carries in seven of the team’s 12 games.
The Chargers passing game is working better which would seem to
limit Gordon’s upside but that’s not necessarily the
case as it does lead to more potential scoring opportunities.
The Redskins have given up 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs
this season and they’ve given up the seventh-most fantasy
points to opposing running backs overall. Gordon remains an RB1
with Austin Ekeler playing a complementary role that is really
only suitable for deep PPR Flex usage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles got a bit of a reality check
this past week as they fell to the Seahawks but there’s
still plenty of reason to be excited about this Philadelphia offense.
The leader of the offense, quarterback Carson Wentz, has thrown
a touchdown in every game this season and he has still not thrown
more than one interception in any game, which has given him a
nice high floor to begin with each week. He’s also been
quietly productive as a runner, averaging nearly 25 rushing yards
per game. What’s been great, though, is that Wentz has been
keying in on his top three targets: Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor
and Zach Ertz, and each of them is among the top scorers at his
position on the season. Jeffery has been the top receiver for
most of the season and should continue to be as long as he’s
on the field. This isn’t a great matchup given that the
Eagles are on the road against a top five fantasy pass defense
but the Eagles have been hot enough that none of these players
should realistically be benched.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: The Philadelphia running game has been
quite productive this season but it’s been a bit frustrating
from a fantasy perspective, especially since the addition of Jay
Ajayi. While LeGarrette Blount seems to be the clear lead back,
both Ajayi and Corey Clement are seeing between five to 12 touches
per game, which really limits the upside of all three players,
especially if they’re not scoring touchdowns. Thankfully
they have an excellent matchup against a terrible Rams run defense
that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing running
backs this season. The Rams have conceded 14 total touchdowns
to opposing running backs on the season and the Philadelphia backfield
looks like a good bet to get into end zone at least once in this
game. Unfortunately, we don’t know which back the coaching
staff will choose to feed at the goal line. One would assume it’d
be Blount but he only has three total touchdowns on the season
so that’s certainly no guarantee. Playing a back in the
Philadelphia offense is a complete dice roll at this point with
a hope for a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff continues to produce solid fantasy
numbers this season as the leader of one of the top offenses in
the league, as he has now scored multiple touchdowns in five of
his past six contests. The team has been missing and will likely
again be without their top receiver, Robert Woods, which has led
to an increase in targets for wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Kupp
has 13 receptions in his past two games and will likely be a focal
point of the Rams passing game yet again this week against a tough
Philadelphia defense that has forced the second-most interceptions
in the league this season. Sammy Watkins is also a fantasy consideration
as he has scored in back-to-back weeks since Woods’ injury
and four of his past five overall but his production has been
extremely touchdown-dependent as he has averaged just 2.6 receptions
per game over that span. Watkins has an extremely low floor and
not a particularly high ceiling in this matchup so it’s
probably best to avoid him other than in leagues that give extra
points for long touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kupp is a PPR-only play
who should see around eight to 12 targets.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The top-scoring back in fantasy football
is Todd Gurley and that doesn’t figure to change despite
a tough matchup against a very good Philadelphia run defense that
has conceded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running
backs this season. Gurley has touched the ball at least 16 times
in every single game this season and his impressive usage in the
passing game has made him one of the most dominant running back
options in both standard and PPR formats. The matchup against
Philadelphia could turn out bad if the Eagles get out to a lead
early and the Rams have to play behind but even then Gurley’s
usage in the passing game would theoretically go up. There might
not be a safer play in fantasy football right now, so deploy Gurley
as a stud RB1 as usual.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jacoby Brissett is coming off an awful performance,
but there is reason for optimism surrounding his upcoming game.
Brissett’s two worst outings from a passing standpoint have
come against Jacksonville, which should be no surprise. Buffalo
however, is a much more forgiving defense. T.Y. Hilton managed
to beat the vaunted Jaguars secondary for a touchdown last week,
but otherwise he has been completely shut down in all but three
games this season. Hilton has three games with 150+ receiving
yards. Outside of those three games, he hasn’t caught more
than four passes nor had more than 57 receiving yards. He is a
true boom or bust option with way more busts than booms. The Bills
are a more favorable matchup and Hilton has only succeeded against
weaker opponents, but he’s also flopped against bad defenses
as well. We know to bench him against strong opponents, but that
doesn’t necessarily mean he can be trusted against weak
ones. The lack of Donte Moncrief this week will mean more of Chester
Rogers, but neither was a fantasy option to begin with. Jack Doyle
has posted duds in two of his last three games, but is still one
of the safer back end TE1 options.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: This is still
Frank Gore’s backfield. He’s had double digit carries
in all but one game this season and has been extremely consistent
in his yardage output, often hovering around his 52.7 per game
average. Gore needs a touchdown to produce, something he’s
only been able to do three times this season. The Colts should
probably give Marlon Mack some more work, especially in a lost
season, but that would imply that Chuck Pagano has a modicum of
a clue as to how to coach an NFL team. Mack is firmly off the
fantasy radar.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor’s return to practice
Thursday was a huge step in the right direction for all Bills
offensive players. Taylor injured his knee early in last week’s
game and was eventually carted off the field with what looked
to be a serious injury. Evidently, Taylor has averted disaster
and is likely to start this week. The world has seen enough of
the Nate Peterman experience. If for some reason Taylor can’t
play, you cannot start anyone in the Bills passing game. Even
with Taylor out there, this passing attack is not exactly rife
with options. Jordan Matthews was just placed on IR and Kelvin
Benjamin hasn’t played in weeks. Even if Benjamin returns,
this is a low volume passing offense and Benjamin hadn’t
exactly been lighting it up this season anyway. There have been
rumblings about a Zay Jones breakout, but that’s just not
possible on the Bills. Taylor is averaging just 174.2 passing
yards per game and has as many touchdown passes as games the Bills
have played. Charles Clay is Taylor’s favorite receiver,
but even his performance has been propped up somewhat unjustly.
When Clay was “thriving,” he only appeared to be doing
so by virtue of scoring twice in his first three games. Yes, he
had that huge 5-112 game in Week 4, but since then, he’s
had five games of no more than three catches for no more than
31 yards. Clay is not a trustworthy option this week.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy, on the other hand, is quite
trustworthy. The overwhelming majority of McCoy’s big games
on the ground have come at home and as long as Taylor plays, the
Bills can be expected to see positive game script, at least to
the extent that running the ball should always be an option. McCoy’s
yards per carry averages over his last four games are 6.2, 2.2,
8.8, and 6.1. He’s been moving the ball much better on the
ground after struggling early in the season. His workload remains
as safe as ever and although Travaris Cadet has been stealing
some passing down work, it’s probably for the best as McCoy
doesn’t need to be run into the ground. So we sacrifice
a little fantasy production for health. Shady hasn’t scored
in his last two games, but is a good bet to break the dry spell
against a soft Colts defense. Even if Peterman is forced to start,
it’s not like you’re benching McCoy anyway.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys offense got back on track last
Thursday against Washington, putting up 38 points after looking
downright pathetic for three straight weeks. Dak Prescott played
better, but the fantasy output just isn’t where it was earlier
in the year. He threw for two touchdowns and didn’t turn
the ball over, but 102 yards just isn’t cutting it. While
some of that can be attributed to Redskins turnovers giving Prescott
short fields, the reality is the Cowboys just aren’t looking
to move the ball through the air if they can avoid it.
Against the Giants as four point favorites, the Cowboys are unlikely
to have to throw the ball any more than usual. Dez Bryant looked
the best he’s looked in the last three seasons last week.
He caught five of Prescott’s 11 completions for 61 of Prescott’s
102 yards as well as a touchdown. The touchdown was vintage Dez,
which was both exciting and infuriating at the same time. It’s
clear Bryant still has the talent to be an elite wide receiver
in this league, but it’s also clear he hasn’t been
giving his full effort every game. He is still not the Dez Bryant
of old, but at least we know any problems are self-created. Bryant
caught just two of nine targets when these teams played back in
Week 1. Jason Witten did a ton of damage as he typically does
against the Giants. While this Cowboys team is not the same as
the one we saw opening Sunday, Witten is always an option against
the Giants. Bryant, even in a situation where he won’t be
dealing with Janoris Jenkins, is still a touchdown dependent WR3.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris solidified himself as the
feature back last week, ripping off 127 yards and a touchdown
on 27 carries. He played firmly ahead of Rod Smith, who can now
be dropped across the board. Morris is a zero in the passing game,
which caps his upside, but his rushing ceiling isn’t much
lower than Ezekiel Elliott’s. The Cowboys are still going
to try and win this game on the ground making Morris a very viable
fantasy play against one of the league’s worst rush defenses.
If the Cowboys can get a lead, they will look to sit on it with
Morris, resulting in some heavy second half volume.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After Eli Manning’s consecutive games
started streak was broken unceremoniously by the now deposed Ben
McAdoo’s decision to start Geno Smith, Manning is back under
center for this week’s tilt against the Cowboys. The Giants
managed just three points on offense back in Week 1 and Manning
has not been a startable option this season. Sterling Shepard
returned after missing two games with migraines and while he only
managed 56 yards on three targets, his return did wonders for
Evan Engram, who struggled in Shepard’s absence as Engram
was the only pass catcher worth paying attention to for opposing
defenses. Engram had the best game of his young career, catching
seven of eight targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Even with Manning back under center, there is no reason to fade
Engram as he had been strong with Manning earlier in the year.
It is no surprise that Engram’s two bad games came with
Shepard absent. Even with Sean Lee returning, Engram should have
no trouble performing well this week, but temper expectations
if Shepard cannot go. The Giants are hopeful Shepard can play
after returning to a limited practice Thursday, but hopeful is
not as encouraging as “expected.” Be sure to monitor
Shepard’s status throughout the weekend.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Sean Lee’s return is far more of
a problem for the Giants run game, which was never all that good
to begin with. Orleans Darkwa is still the leader, but he only
managed 32 yards on 14 carries last week against the Raiders.
The Cowboys with Lee are not an easy matchup and the Giants RBs
as a group are not that talented. Making matters worse could be
the return of Paul Perkins, who looks to recapture his title as
worst RB in the NFL. Darkwa is still the only back worth rostering,
but he’s probably not worth starting anymore.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another dominant Patriots
performance. I don’t see how this team doesn’t go
to the Super Bowl. They don’t even need Tom Brady to carry
them. He was just a passenger last week as his 10-game touchdown
streak came to an end. He didn’t play poorly. He just wasn’t
needed. Out of Brady’s 258 yards, 147 of them went to Rob
Gronkowski. I would say that bodes well for Gronk this week, but
Gronk went and got himself suspended with a totally meaningless
late hit after Brady was picked on a pass to Gronk where Gronk
was clearly interfered with, but there was no call. In any game
that’s unacceptable, but especially in a game that was well
over. I get that it is frustrating when a bad no call leads to
a turnover, but players have to control their tempers.
Brady should bounce back in a big way against a laughably bad
Dolphins pass defense and he should do so by featuring Brandin
Cooks, who was absent as well last week. Chris Hogan has a shot
to return, but, since they’re the Patriots, we likely won’t
know until Monday. His return to practice Wednesday bodes well
though. I expect Hogan to play, which is a slight downgrade for
Cooks, but without Gronk, both Hogan and Cooks will be heavily
in involved. Danny Amendola is just not a consistent part of the
offense. The Patriots settled for an unusually high number of
field goals last week and both touchdowns came on the ground.
That’s unlikely to repeat itself.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Just when we thought we had figured the
Patriots backfield out, James White returned from the dead to
lead the backfield in snaps. It wasn’t a huge lead as it
was essentially a three way split with Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis,
but it was significantly more than he’d been seeing. Nevertheless,
Burkhead and Lewis remain the two primary backs and both have
high weekly floors. Burkhead is consistently targeted at least
a couple times in the passing game and has solidified himself
as the goal line back. He now has five touchdowns in his last
four games. Meanwhile, Lewis has been a monster on the ground,
posting yards per carry averages of 6.1, 7.5, and 6.0 over his
last three games. The only problem with Lewis is he comes out
for Burkhead in the red zone and he’s not being used at
all in the passing game, which keeps him as more of a flex play
because of the lack of touchdown and reception upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler had a very Jay Cutler game last
week, throwing for 235 yards, two touchdowns to his own team,
one touchdown to the other team, and one other interception. His
primary target was Kenny Stills, who seems to have surpassed DeVante
Parker in target priority. Stills still isn’t consistent
enough to be trusted, but he has posted WR1 numbers in two of
his last three games. At the very least, the upside is there.
The same cannot be said for Parker, who continues to prove how
overrated a player he is. I’ll give him credit for consistency,
though, with exactly one catch for five yards in back to back
games. You can drop him if you want. Jarvis Landry almost saw
his streak of five receptions in every game come to an end…almost.
Ultimately, he got there and remains a high floor, low ceiling
PPR option. Julius Thomas found the end zone and managed to post
yet another useful week. I still feel like it’s smoke and
mirrors. The Patriots defense has been the best in the league
over the past six weeks. I would not confidently start any Dolphins
passing game members.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake’s debut as the feature
back went about as well as it could’ve. Drake handled 23
carries for 120 yards and a touchdown while adding 21 yards on
three of five targets. I don’t anticipate Damien Williams
returning this week (or this season), which puts Drake in a great
spot again. Even in a blowout loss, LeSean McCoy managed to average
6.2 yards per carry against the Patriots. Just because the Patriots
are going to win this game easily doesn’t mean Drake can’t
be productive. Drake is a legitimate every week starting option
given his volume and splash potential.
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