Passing
Game Thoughts: There are very few things that Philip Rivers,
Trevor Siemian, and Marcus Mariota have in common. Rivers is an
aging star in the twilight of his career and an immobile statue
on the field, while Siemian and Mariota are young mobile quarterbacks
looking to make a name in the NFL. Siemian faces an uphill battle
to regain the starting job for the Broncos, while Mariota is the
face of the franchise in Tennessee and will likely be under center
for the Titans for years to come.
It may shock some fantasy owners to learn that the one thing
these three quarterbacks do have in common is the average number
of fantasy points scored per game in 2017 (19.2), not exactly
what Mariota owners where hoping for in the former first-round
pick’s third year in the league. Although Mariota is on
pace for new career highs in passing yards, rushing yards, and
rushing touchdowns (He already set a new record with 3), he is
also on pace for a career-worst 12 interceptions, and 14 touchdown
passes.
Mariota has yet to throw for three touchdowns or 300 yards in
a game despite facing off against three of the league’s
worst passing defenses in Houston, Indianapolis, and Cleveland.
It seems highly unlikely that he will reach either threshold this
week against a Pittsburgh team that allows the second-fewest points
to opposing quarterbacks.
On a positive note for Mariota, the return of first-round pick
Corey Davis gives the passing offense a dynamic weapon alongside
Rishard Matthews, and the revamped Steeler secondary took a hit
with the loss of veteran cornerback Joe Haden to a fractured leg
on Sunday against the Colts. Starting safety Mike Mitchell also
left Sunday’s game hobbled with an ankle injury and was
listed as a limited participant in practice on Tuesday.
The Titans are relatively healthy considering it is already Week
11, with Mariota, tight end Delanie Walker, and guard Quinton
Spain as the only players listed on the injury report. All three
players are expected to suit up on Thursday, with Spain’s
toe injury the biggest question mark of the trio.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: A three-touchdown performance against
the Bengals last week vaulted Demarco Murray back into fantasy
relevance after a disappointing, injury-plagued first half of
the season for the veteran running back. It was the first multi-touchdown
game of the season for Murray, despite the fact that he continues
to have sub-par efficiency numbers with just 42 yards on 14 carries
for a 3.0 YPC average. The monster game was a pleasant surprise
for Murray owners, although I suspect that a large percentage
of his owners had him on the bench after his recent struggles.
Derrick Henry owners continue to wait for their young back to
take over the starting duties from the aging Murray, which appears
not to be something the Titan coaching staff envision happening
anytime soon. Henry has been the more efficient runner of the
two, yet he has not done enough to force Tennessee coaches to
give him more carries.
Aside from two poor performances against Leonard Fournette and
Jordan Howard, the Steeler run defense has been excellent this
season, limiting the running backs for Kansas City, Cincinnati,
Detroit, and Indy to well under 100 yards and no rushing touchdowns
in Weeks 6 through 10. Recent injuries to Joe Haden and Mike Mitchell
in the Pittsburgh secondary may open the passing game for Marcus
Mariota and the Tennessee skill position players, which could
provide more running room for Murray and Henry. NFL color commentators
often reference the need for the run game to open up the pass,
but in the case for the Titans on Thursday, an effective passing
game against an injury-depleted Steeler secondary could, in turn,
open up the ground attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger salvaged a terrible first
half against the Colts with two second-half touchdown passes to
JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Vance McDonald to end the day
with 20.3 fantasy points. It was a disappointing performance considering
the opponent and the fact that the Colts were limited by injuries
on the defensive front.
Smith-Schuster continues to be the clear-cut No. 2 receiving
option for Big Ben, although the Steelers did make a concerted
effort to get disgruntled Martavis Bryant more involved. The emergence
of the first-year wide receiver from USC has been a good thing
for the Pittsburgh offense in that he provides Roethlisberger
with more options in the passing game. But the negative for fantasy
owners is Antonio Brown has seen his target share drop from 33%
to 27% over the past two weeks, with two consecutive games of
less than 10 fantasy points and zero receiving touchdowns.
Look for Brown to bounce back in a big way this week in a nationally
televised home game against a Titans secondary that allows the
9th-most points to opposing wide receivers. No.1 receivers Doug
Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Jeremy Maclin, and most recently, A.J.
Green, all posted solid weeks against Tennessee this season.
The chess match between former Pittsburgh and current Tennessee
defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau and offensive coordinator Todd
Haley will be an interesting aspect of this game. Widely credited
as the inventor of the zone blitz, this will be the first time
LeBeau will coach against Big Ben and Antonio Brown, two players
whom LeBeau knows quite well from his ten seasons coaching the
Steelers from 2004 to 2014.
The majority of injuries for the Steelers are on the defensive
side of the ball, with reserve tight end Vance McDonald (ankle)
and No.3 wide receiver Martavis Bryant (illness) as the only two
offensive players listed. Both players are expected to play, although
McDonald’s ankle could make him a game-time decision (not
a viable fantasy option, regardless).
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The strength of the Tennessee defense
is the run stopping ability of the front seven, led by defensive
linemen Sylvester Williams and Jurrell Casey, and linebacker Wesley
Woodyard. No opposing running back has rushed for more than 77
yards this season against the Titans, and only Leonard Fournette,
Lamar Miller, and Joe Mixon have managed to reach the end zone
on the ground.
This should not worry Le’Veon Bell owners, as Bell’s
elite volume rushing the ball and catching passes out of the backfield
makes him a must-start regardless of the opponent. With double-digit
points in six of his last seven games, including 30.6 points against
a tough Baltimore defense in Week 4, Bell will provide a solid
floor of at least ten fantasy points with the ceiling of a multi-score
game.
Bell may find more success in the air than on the ground against
a Titans unit that has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to
opposing backs and the third-most receiving touchdowns. Bell is
an elite stud every week in all formats, but this week he could
have even more value in PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars continue to be a run-first,
defensive-oriented team, led by a game-managing quarterback in
Blake Bortles tasked with the job of providing enough of a passing
threat to keep defenses somewhat honest while keeping his mistakes
to a minimum. Aside from an outlier four-touchdown performance
Week 3 in London against the Ravens, Bortles has not thrown for
more than one touchdown in any game this season, including last
week’s 273/1/2 performance in a 20-17 win over the visiting
Los Angeles Chargers.
A matchup against a Cleveland Browns secondary that has allowed
the 9th most points to opposing quarterbacks and the second most
passing touchdowns (19) could provide Bortles the right opportunity
to break out of his string of single TD performances.
The blueprint for beating the winless Browns is to force turnovers
on defense while attacking a suspect secondary with the pass.
As the league’s number one fantasy defense, the Jags will
not have much trouble achieving the first part of the winning
formula. But as a power run game that struggles to find success
in the passing game, the Jacksonville offense does not match up
well vs. the strengths and weaknesses of Cleveland.
The Jacksonville wide receiving corps led Allen Hurns and Marqise
Lee ranks 28th in fantasy points scored, with just three combined
touchdowns on the year. With double-digit fantasy points in three
of his last four contests, including six catches for 55 yards
and a touchdown last week against the Chargers, Lee is the number
one option for Bortles as the two continue to build a rapport.
Expecting a multi-score game from Lee this week might be a stretch,
but a third consecutive game of at least 50 yards and a score
is well within reach.
Hurns is not expected to play against the Browns due to an ankle
injury sustained against Los Angeles, but Bortles will likely
have rookie preseason sensation Dede Westbrook on the first time
this year after a 10-week absence due to a core muscle injury.
Westbrook is an excellent upside play in deeper 12 and 14 team
leagues and DFS, but the unknown factor of volume in the offense
might be too much of a gamble in 10-team formats.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette struggled last week
in his first game action after missing Week 9 due to violating
team rules. The first round draft pick from LSU rushed for 33
yards on 17 carries and failed to reach the end zone for only
the second time this season last week against the Chargers.
The Browns have been terrible in nearly every facet of the game,
including front office moves by Sashi Brown the Cleveland Brain
Trust, but the one area in which the team has not struggled is
in run defense. The Browns rank 25th in fantasy points allowed
to RBs in 2017, with only four rushing touchdowns allowed on 219
carries. No opposing player has rushed for more than 66 yards
against Cleveland, and no opposing back has managed to post a
multi-score game. Although, it is possible that the Browns run
defense is weakening, as evident to the fact that both Jerick
McKinnon and Ameer Abdullah scored rushing touchdowns in the last
two games.
Regardless of the matchup, Fournette owners are starting the
stud back due to his high floor and elite level ceiling. The Jags
defensive unit is tops in the league in shutting down opposing
offenses and should give Bortles and Fournette numerous short
fields. But don’t be surprised if the Jags follow the blueprint
of passing against the Browns, which could somewhat limit Fournette’s
upside Week 11.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie DeShone Kizer faces his difficult
challenge of his young career against a Jacksonville team that
allows the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Only five quarterbacks
have registered a passing touchdown this season against the Jags,
with Joe Flacco, Josh McCown, Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett,
and Andy Dalton all failing to throw a touchdown against a stout
Jacksonville secondary.
No Cleveland wide receiver or tight end is worthy of a start
this week, and Kizer’s fantasy value is limited to his ability
to create fantasy points with his legs. A garbage time rushing
TD for Kizer could salvage his value for owners in two-quarterback
leagues, but getting benched in favor of Cody Kessler is also
in play should Kizer continue to commit costly turnovers.
Duke Johnson is the only skill position player in the passing
game worthy of consideration with Jacksonville allowing a modest
48 catches for 334 yards and three scores to opposing running
backs. It also doesn’t hurt that Duke’s usage in the
ground game has jumped from 18% to just over 30% over the past
month.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets provided the blueprint of how
to attack the Jacksonville defense when Bilal Powell and Elijah
McGuire combined for 256 yards and two touchdowns Week 4 at MetLife
Stadium. The Jags responded to that blowout with the addition
of Marcell Dareus via trade with Buffalo. Since the trade, the
Jags have allowed only one 100-yard rusher and one rushing touchdown,
while the Bills have been one of the worst teams in stopping the
run.
Isaiah Crowell is finally living up to his early draft price
with back-to-back double-digit performances against Minnesota
and Detroit. Despite losing volume to Johnson during that span,
Crow has improved his efficiency and scored a rushing touchdown
in each contest. He carries decent touchdown upside this week,
but a negative game script is possible with Jacksonville running
away with the game early.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has been a model of consistency
over the past four weeks with 20 or more fantasy points in each
game, including a three-touchdown performance at home against
Cleveland Week 10. Stafford continues to excel at spreading the
ball around to his collection of skill position players, instead
of peppering one target with excessive volume like he did earlier
in his career with Calvin Johnson.
The return of rookie Kenny Golladay from a hamstring injury gave
Stafford another deep threat opposite of Marvin Jones on the outside,
while Golden Tate working on the inside in the slot continues
the be his favorite target. Jones’ production fell off drastically
last week with Stafford electing to avoid throwing the ball to
Jason McCourty’s side of the field. With the Bears lacking
an elite coverage corner on the outside Jones should once again
garner the second-largest percentage of targets this week against
Chicago.
The Bears rank 22nd in point allowed to opposing wide receivers
and 29th against opposing quarterbacks - not exactly a great matchup
for Stafford and his receiving weapons. Vic Fangio likes to employ
a two-deep safety scheme to cut down on the threat of big plays,
limiting opposing offenses to underneath and intermediary throws.
This bodes well for Tate working in the slot but could restrict
Golladay’s ability for the big play.
Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante
Adams all managed to score double-digit points this season vs.
the Bears, but only Brown was able to post more than 100 yards
in a game.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah reached pay dirt in each
of his last two games, including an 11/52/1 performance against
a stout Browns run defense Week 10. A third consecutive week with
a touchdown is in play this week against a Bears team that allows
the 15th-most points to opposing running backs. Eight different
running backs reached the end zone this season against Chicago,
including Ty Montgomery last week at a rainy Soldier Field.
Theo Riddick returned to a fantasy relevant asset with 18 combined
points over his last two games, highlighted by a 10.7 game last
week against Cleveland that featured a receiving touchdown. Although
no opposing running back has scored a receiving touchdown this
season, the Bears do rank 15th in receiving yards to opposing
backs, and Riddick always carries the upside of a screen pass
touchdown reception.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky set career highs in completions,
attempts, completion percentage, and passing yards in a Week 10
loss at home against the Packers. With back-to-back games with
over 30 pass attempts, it appears as though head coach John Fox
is finally allowing his rookie quarterback to open up the offense
and attack defenses downfield.
Mid-season trade acquisition Dontrell Inman was the main beneficiary
of Trubisky opening up the offense with six catches for 88 yards
on eight targets. Although he failed to reach the end zone, it
was a promising performance by a member of the lowest scoring
fantasy wide receiving corps in the NFL. With matchups against
the Browns, 49ers, and Eagles in the upcoming weeks, Inman could
evolve into a viable No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.
That evolution may not happen this week, as Darius Slay and the
Lions pass defense have allowed only one 100-yard receiver on
the season and only three receiving touchdowns since Week 6. The
way to beat the Lions is on the ground, and the Bears will likely
rely heavily on their three-headed rushing attack to shorten the
game and keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford hands.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: The 10th-ranked Bears rushing attack disappointed
last week in a loss at home against the Packers, with Jordan Howard
posting 54 yards on 15 carries against a team that ranked 6th
in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. To the detriment
of the team, head coach John Fox went away from the run too early,
and the Bears ended up losing to a struggling Brett Hundley-led
Green Bay team.
Look for Fox to not make that mistake twice as the Bears will
feature the run against a Detroit defense that allows the 9th
most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Chicago is relatively healthy
on the offensive side of the ball, with offensive linemen Kyle
Long and Tom Compton limited in practice on Wednesday, and tight
end Dion Simms is currently out with due to an illness. All three
players are likely fine for Sunday, with reserve right tackle
Compton’s knee injury the most serious injury.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Most fantasy football fans anticipated an
improvement to the Los Angeles Rams passing game with the addition
of first-year head coach Sean McVay joining the team this offseason.
But not many people predicted the Rams becoming the third-ranked
offense in the league, or that Jared Goff would become a No.1
fantasy quarterback in just the first season under McVay.
Like the 49ers under Jim Harbaugh, the Rams are a testament to
the idea that a fresh new head coach and a commitment to improving
an offensive line can go a long way in making a bad team into
a playoff contender.
Goff and McVay face off this week against arguably their most
difficult opponent when they head north to take on Mike Zimmer’s
Vikings at US Bank Stadium. The Vikings allow the 25th-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks this season and have not allowed
a multi-touchdown week to an opposing QB since Week 3 vs. Jameis
Winston. Kirk Cousins found excellent fantasy success last week
with 33 points on 327/1/1 passing vs. the Vikings, but that was
at FedEx Field, and he bolstered his stats with two rushing touchdowns.
Only two quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards vs. Zimmer’s
defense and no quarterback has managed to throw for three touchdowns.
The Vikings will be tested by Goff, who took advantage of two
of the worst passing defenses in New York and Houston over the
last two weeks with seven touchdowns and 666 yards. If forced
to wager on who will have more success this week, I fall on the
side of the veteran defensive minded coach in Zimmer playing at
home.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley leads the NFL in fantasy points
at the running back position with 176 through nine games, with
at least 100 total yards and/or a touchdown in all but one of
his nine games. A lopsided 33-7 win over the Houston Texans last
week limited Gurley to just 17 touches, his lowest total on the
season, but he still came through with 136 yards for 13.6 fantasy
points.
He will likely find it difficult sledding this week against the
Vikings run defense, a unit that ranks dead last in fantasy points
allowed to opposing backs. Only Ameer Abdullah and Isaiah Crowell
have scored rushing touchdowns vs. Minnesota, and no running back,
including Le’Veon Bell, has reached the century mark on
the ground.
Injuries to hard-hitting safety Andrew Sendejo and pass rush
specialist Everson Griffen are important factors for the success
of the Vikings defense this week, as both players missed practice
on Wednesday. Griffen told reporters that he intends on playing
after missing last week with a foot injury. His matchup against
veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth will be one of the better
battles to watch on Sunday.
Sendejo is critical to providing run support with fellow safety
Harrison Smith, and his absence due to groin and hamstring injuries
dramatically improves the outlook for Gurley and the ground game.
As of today, Sendejo is questionable, and it is not looking likely
that he will suit up on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Teddy Two-Gloves Bridgwater breathing
down his neck and close to regain the starting quarterback role
for Mike Zimmer, Case Keenum is one bad quarter away from once
again holding the clipboard. It is an unfortunate situation for
Keenum, a journeyman backup in the midst of his best season in
the NFL. The former record-setting QB from the University of Houston
threw for 304 yards and a career-best four touchdown last week
against the Redskins, yet his time as the starting QB for the
Vikings is clearly short lived.
For Keenum to match his impressive performance from Week 10,
he will need to light up a Rams defense that allows the 27th-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks. Although those stats are somewhat
skewed by cakewalk games against the who’s who’s of
terrible quarterback play in Tom Savage, Eli Manning, Drew Stanton,
Blake Bortles, Bryan Hoyer, and Scott Tolzien, The Rams have only
allowed one quarterback to pass for more than 300 yards or three
passing touchdowns.
If you like to buy into nonsense like the revenge narrative,
Keenum facing off against his old team in a personal must-win
game is interesting. I personally do not, but Keenum could be
a fun contrarian play on DFS.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: One area in which the Rams have taken
a step back under McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips
is run defense. L.A. allows the fourth-most fantasy points per
game in 2017 after finishing in the middle of the pack last year.
This change is someone surprising with a stout D-line led by All-Pro
Aaron Donald and linebacking corp led by Alec Ogletree.
With only New Orleans, Jacksonville, and the Rams scoring more
points this season at the running back position than the Vikings,
running the ball on Sunday will be a point of emphasis for Minnesota.
The running back tandem of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon
has been on fire over the past month, with one of the two backs
scoring a rushing touchdown since Dalvin Cook went down with a
knee injury Week 4. McKinnon continues to be the primary receiving
back while Murray works in on first and second down, and in short-yardage
situations. Both players are strong plays this week, especially
Murray as he has scored a rushing touchdown in back to back games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco was quoted over the break stating
that he would like for the Baltimore offense to “open up”
in the final stretch of the season. More aggressive play calling
would be a nice change for the skill position players for the
Ravens, as Flacco ranks 39th in fantasy points per game and 27th
in passing yard this year. Only the wide receiving corps of the
killer B’s (Bills, Bears, and Browns) have fewer combined
fantasy points than the Ravens.
Free-agent addition Jeremy Maclin is starting to come on after
a slow start to an injury-riddled season. The former Eagle and
Chief has been a top-15 WR in each of the last two weeks, with
11 catches for 151 yards and a score. Fellow veteran wideout Mike
Wallace caught a touchdown last week against Tennessee and could
be a sneaky flex play against a Packers unit that allows the 28th-most
points to receivers.
The return of Danny Woodhead will give Flacco another receiving
threat out of the backfield and will be heavily used in screens,
and dump offs against Dom Caper’s blitz-happy defense. It
remains to be seen how many snaps Woodhead will receive, as it
would make sense to ease-in the veteran running back.
For a team decimated by injuries this season, the Ravens enter
this Week 11 tilt relatively healthy on both sides of the ball.
Running back Terrance West was a full participant in practice
after missing the last few weeks with a calf injury, while wide
receiver Michael Campanaro and tight end Nick Boyle were full
participants despite shoulder and toe ailments.
Safety Morgan Burnett missed last week’s game against the
Bears and has yet to practice this week due to a groin injury.
His absence in the middle of the Packers secondary would be a
boost to the value of Maclin, Wallace, and the Raven running backs.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: The returns of Terrance West from a calf
injury and Danny Woodhead from a severe hamstring strain will
add depth to the Baltimore ground attack that ranks 13th in fantasy
points scored. How the Ravens use their stable of tailbacks remains
to be seen, although offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg confirmed
on Wednesday that Alex Collins will continue to be the first and
second down back.
The assumption is that Woodhead and Buck Allen will both work
in as the change of pace and receiving options, but it is not
clear how the distribution of touches will be divided. Until we
have more information, avoiding both Allen and Woodhead might
be prudent options, although I anticipate that with four teams
on bye many owners will be forced to play one of the receiving
backs.
The lack of clarity surrounding the Baltimore ground game comes
at a bad time for fantasy owners, as the Packers are a juicy matchup
as at the 8th-worst team in terms of points allowed to RBs. Nine
opposing running backs have reached double-digit points against
the Packers, highlighted by Devonta Freeman’s 22-point game
Week 2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brett Hundley posted the most efficient
game of his young NFL career in a 23-16 win over Chicago last
week, completing 18-of-25 passes for 212 yards and a score. After
throwing four interceptions in his first 58 pass attempts, Hundley
has now gone two full games without throwing a pick.
Davante Adams continues to be the target of choice for Hundley,
as former stud wide receiver Jordy Nelson has faded into must-bench
territory since the collarbone injury to Aaron Rodgers Week 6.
Nelson has yet to score a touchdown in the post A-Rod era of Packers
football, with seven catches for 68 yards combined in the last
three games.
With Baltimore allowing the second-fewest points to opposing
wide receivers and the 14th-most points to running backs, it is
safe to say that Nelson will continue to struggle as head coach
Mike McCarthy focuses on moving the ball on the ground against
the Ravens.
The bye week proved to be a savior for the Ravens as the only
injured player still unable to practice after the break is cornerback
Jimmy Smith. Smith’s absence due to a lingering Achilles
injury would improve the chances of Nelson scoring his first touchdown
from Hundley, but the chance of another single-digit performance
seems more likely.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Jamaal Williams looks primed to
make the first start of his NFL career with Aaron Jones out with
a knee injury and Ty Montgomery limited with fractured ribs. Montgomery
has played through the pain since injuring his ribs three weeks
ago, but he was unable to finish last week’s game against
the Bears and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.
Williams rushed for a pedestrian 67 yards on 20 carries, while
Montgomery was more effective with 54 yards and a score on just
six totes. Williams owners will want to start the first year back
from BYU as he will most likely at least 20 carries against the
Ravens, but he will need to improve his efficiency to provide
top-24 numbers.
The Ravens rank 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs,
but it should be noted that they have improved significantly as
of late now that DT Brandon Williams is back and healthy. Baltimore
has allowed 96 combined yards in their last three games, limiting
Jay Ajayi (With Miami), Derrick Henry, and DeMarco Murray to less
than 30 yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Arizona continues to deal with injuries
coming into their Week 11 showdown with the Texans. The Cardinals
may need to use third-string quarterback Blaine Gabbert under
center this week after Drew Stanton suffered a sprained knee last
Thursday night. Stanton hasn’t officially been ruled out
yet and the Cardinals continue to hold out hope that he may still
play this weekend. A decision is expected to come after Friday’s
practice but I’m not sure it will sway any fantasy decisions.
If Gabbert plays, the team will want to limit his ability to lose
the football game (13 interceptions thrown in previous 14 games
played) and consequently yield more work to the running game.
If the Cardinals roll with a less than 100-percent healthy Stanton,
he will have limited mobility and less accuracy stepping into
deep throws. A more efficient game plan would result in less stats
for Stanton, but keep the receivers involved early and often.
Houston has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
over the past three weeks so there is optimism that this unit
can still be productive for fantasy owners. While I wouldn’t
advise starting the quarterbacks due to limited upside, I do think
Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown are potential fantasy starts this
week. Fitzgerald becomes far riskier with Gabbert under center,
but still has the ability to post double-digit targets against
a team having issues defending the pass so keep him locked into
your lineup. Both John and Jaron Brown will suffer from low catch
rates simply because the quarterbacks are not as accurate down
the field but both should fare better in a favorable matchup.
The Texans offense simply isn’t moving the chains with ease
and there should be enough offensive series to take advantage
of Houston’s shortcomings against the pass. Jermaine Gresham
has become a go-to guy near the goal but remains an afterthought
everywhere else on the field. He belongs in the boom or bust bin
this week but his boom isn’t that big to justify the risk.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson’s trade is looking
better each week. With the quarterback situation looking less
threatening, Head Coach Bruce Arians will be best served by feeding
his running backs as much as they can take. That being said it
is pretty clear that Arizona struggles against good run defenses.
Peterson posted a YPC average of less than two against the Dolphins,
Rams and Seahawks but had no issues against the 49ers and Bucs.
Arizona enters this week ranked 31st on the season in rushing
yards per game so they are far from a sure thing when the match
up isn’t favorable. Houston has given up the seventh fewest
rushing yards this season and an NFL-best three rushing touchdowns.
It’s pretty safe to say that this wouldn’t qualify
as a great matchup for Peterson. Despite the team’s need
for the running game to step up, I’d try to find somebody
else to start in place of Peterson this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In his two games since returning as the
starter, Tom Savage is averaging 40 passes (good), 220 passing
yards (no so good) with at least one touchdown (could be worse)
and the ever-present danger of interceptions (really not good).
Houston simply can’t afford to become one-dimensional so
it is good to see Bill O’Brien allowing his younger quarterback
to try and keep them in games via the pass. Unfortunately, Savage
simply lacks the ability to make the same big plays that helped
this offense take off with Deshaun Watson leading the way. Savage
is lucky to complete half his passes which puts more pressure
on every third down attempt to keep drives alive where Houston
has gone 8 for 26 (or 15.4 percent) over the past two games. The
lack of sustainable drives puts a damper on the fantasy prospects
for everyone in the passing game.
That being said, the Texans’ inability to keep teams from
scoring has forced them into more passing situations. This is
a huge score for DeAndre Hopkins owners as he remains a viable
starter in these conditions (unlike last season with a more dominate
defense). Will Fuller has been ruled out for this game with cracked
ribs. That will give more opportunity to Bruce Ellington but he
remains a low upside risk in the fantasy realm. Tight end C.J.
Fiedorowicz saw six targets in his first game back from a concussion.
He should see a bit more work in this game and is a sneaky TE1
play if your other options aren’t too inspiring.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller has been fine on the ground,
he just isn’t getting enough work to push him into the upper
crust of fantasy running backs. Nor is he getting many red zone
carries to help boost his overall fantasy numbers. He’s
a frustrating own at this point and remains a low end RB2 this
week going up against the Cardinals. Arizona is one of eight teams
allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game in the NFL this
season. Adding to Miller’s deflated expectations is the
presence of D’Onta Foreman. Miller saw only 59-percent of
the offensive carries last week due with the team trailing big
in the second half. This trend may continue if Houston cannot
figure out a way to shore up its defense. These current conditions
have lowered Miller’s ceiling and his floor making him a
borderline starter in the Tom-Savage led offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jordan Reed was not able to practice Wednesday
and Thursday and it isn’t looking good for him to play in
Week 11. That means Vernon Davis will be a viable fantasy starter
once again. The veteran tight end caught seven passes in last
week’s loss for 76 yards. Jamison Crowder missed practice
Wednesday for personal reasons but the team expects him to play
against the Saints. When healthy, Crowder has steadily risen to
become a preferred fantasy option amidst this group of receivers.
Terrelle Pryor has hit rock bottom. One of the team’s big
free agent signings, failed to see a ball thrown to him last week
and is now losing playing time to Maurice Harris. He can be safely
dropped in all formats. The aforementioned Harris is yet another
member of the carousel of players in this passing attack making
it tough to figure out who will be the guy to start. Josh Doctson
should carve out a role as the second-best fantasy receiver opposite
Crowder this week but he needs to be more involved to be considered
anything more than a WR4/5 for fantasy purposes. Washington’s
quarterback continues to do what he does best: put up solid fantasy
football point totals despite being less than stellar in real
life. The Saints will force the Redskins into plenty of passing
situations throughout this game so look for another QB1 outing
for Cousins.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Washington’s rushing attack has
continued to evolve over the year. News of Rob Kelley officially
being placed on IR this week creates a permanent backfield tandem
of Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine. Thompson has quietly emerged
as a quality PPR fantasy runner but carries a little less upside
in the standard scoring league. With the team failing to keep
opponents of the scoreboard, his skill set fits better into an
offense playing from behind. I suspect the team will be in the
same mode this weekend so do not be afraid to plug Thompson in
as a RB2 in all formats. Meanwhile, Perine should begin to see
more carries in the coming weeks. Thus far, the rookie’s
workload has been capped between 10-12 touches per game. He represents
solid depth to fantasy benches and could start to see a few goal
line carries but this might not be the week to bet on him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The rushing attack has taken the air out
of the passing attack in recent weeks. New Orleans hasn’t
lost since Week 2 so they may not mind the results but fantasy
owners are expecting a lot more. Drew Brees has only two touchdown
passes in three games and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns
against the Redskins in his career. It’s not surprising
to find out New Orleans’ receivers have scored the seventh
fewest fantasy points over the same period. I wouldn’t write
off New Orleans’ passing game just yet but it is concerning.
The Saints will be playing a Washington team that just allowed
a career journeyman quarterback, Case Keenum, to throw four touchdowns
against them. Sean Peyton isn’t likely to stop using his
running game to win games, but there is a glimmer of hope that
the passing attack will get back to being at least average this
weekend. The reduced need to air it out has hurt the secondary
receivers more than Michael Thomas. The team’s best wideout
has averaged eight receptions a game in the team’s most
recent three victories and continues to be a quality fantasy asset.
However, the lack of typical 300 passing yard performances and
the team’s success at scoring rushing touchdowns makes it
tougher for Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman to increase their fantasy
output. Washington’s offense has been good at keeping the
game close enough to allow opposing passing attacks to accrue
fantasy points so I might lean towards giving Ginn a spot start.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints rushing attack plowed over
the Bills in Week 10 paving the way for many fantasy wins for
owners of the Saints dominating duo. In fact, last week’s
big numbers have vaulted Mark Ingram into the top 5 and Alvin
Kamara into the top 10 of all fantasy running backs for the season
to date (standard scoring). There isn’t much to discuss
as both players are must starts in all formats this week. Ingram
is tied for the league lead in touchdowns with 7 scores but Alvin
Kamara has six total touchdowns of his own. The Redskins have
been exploited through the air in recent weeks but they figure
to be the next victim of the Saints’ running ways in Week
11.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bucs won ugly against the Jets last
week. Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t slinging it around like we’re
used to seeing. He did just enough, throwing for just 187 yards.
To be fair, he was operating without Mike Evans, who now returns
from his one-game suspension. Fitzpatrick has a history of locking
in on his top target(s). He did it in New York with Brandon Marshall
and Eric Decker and he did last week with DeSean Jackson and Chris
Godwin (10 targets each). Godwin is a very good wideout and is
going to have fantasy value in future seasons. With Evans back
and Jackson still playing well, Godwin will return to his role
as the third WR, at best (he’s better than Adam Humphries
but Humphries is more suited for the slot right now). Fitzpatrick
targeted the rest of the Bucs’ pass catchers a combined
11 times. Included in that bunch is Cameron Brate, who now has
just one catch in each of his last two games. There was some thought
he would be featured more with Evans out, but he was actually
featured less. Brate hasn’t scored in four straight games
and is one week away from being completely out of the circle of
trust. After what Devin Funchess did to the Dolphins last week,
I think Evans returns with a vengeance.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: While the Bucs have a nice group of pass
catchers that have been working well, the running game has been
a complete disaster. Doug Martin has been absent the last two
weeks. He followed up his eight carry, seven-yard effort with
20 carries for 51 yards. He hasn’t caught a pass since October.
He is still the feature back and dominating both snaps and touches
relative to the other RBs on the team, but he simply needs to
play better. The Dolphins just allowed over 100 yards to the ghost
of Jonathan Stewart. If Martin can’t get things going this
week, I don’t know that he ever will.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler had a quietly usable fantasy
day last week with 213 yards and two touchdowns. It marked his
fourth consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes. Watching
him play, I’m not quite sure when it happens, but Cutler
gets it done…somehow. It would be nice if Jarvis Landry
could post a single splash play, just once in a while. Landry
is the only player other than Adam Thielen to catch at least five
passes in every game this season. The difference for Landry, though,
is he doesn’t really go anywhere. Landry has 16 catches
over his last three games for a total of 107 yards. That’s
quite inefficient. DeVante Parker has been stretching the field
a bit. Since his return from injury, he’s seen 17 targets,
catching 11 balls for 142 yards over two games. He looks the best
he has over his entire career. He should be matched up against
Vernon Hargreaves this week and Hargreaves is not good at preventing
passes from being caught so Parker has the most upside on this
team. The touchdowns have been going to Julius Thomas, but, to
be honest, I don’t really care. Thomas looks incredibly
slow and these last two weeks are flukes as far as I’m concerned.
Maybe if he does it again, I will start to pay attention, but
from what I’ve seen, there’s nothing here.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: What a godsend trading away Jay Ajayi has
been for the Dolphins. I can’t believe the reports after
that trade were what a good deal the Eagles got. Do people think
Jay Ajayi is special? He’s not a bad football player, but
he’s not a difference maker. He’s a better version
of LeGarrette Blount. Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake, in tandem,
have been better than Ajayi was by himself. Williams has been
the main back and I expect him to continue in that role, but Drake
is the more explosive player. Credit to Adam Gase for using these
guys correctly. Drake absolutely cannot handle a full workload,
but what Drake can do is take 10-15 touches and hopefully break
one, like he did last week for 66 yards. Williams has been awful
on the ground, but effective through the air. He is quite adept
as a pass catcher, giving him weekly PPR value. With one trade,
the Dolphins backfield went from having one overrated underperforming
RB to two underrated PPR flex guys.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Here’s an interesting observation
– Alex Smith has alternated multi-touchdown pass games with
single touchdown pass games the entire season. He threw two against
Dallas and did not play last week. It’s obviously just random,
but it’s something fun to consider. Smith could be in for
a huge game against the hapless G-Men. The New York Football Giants
are the laughingstock of the NFL and fresh off a blowout loss
to the previously winless 49ers. C.J. Beathard scored three touchdowns
against them. Smith is fully capable of lighting up the Giants,
which should bode well for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. I said
“should” because Andy Reid has shown an affinity for
using his best players as decoys. Kelce has a touchdown in three
straight and seven receptions in two straight. Any way you slice
it, he’s an elite TE1 option. As for Hill, it’s a
complete crapshoot. There is no way to predict what Reid is going
to do with his most explosive player. After Hill’s tremendous
display of athleticism at the end of the first half against Dallas,
Reid decided that Hill only needed one more target the rest of
the game. There is no deliberate effort to get Hill the ball.
He’s still been a very useful fantasy asset, but predicting
his blowup games has been impossible. In a game that should be
a blowout, Hill and the passing game in general could be removed
from this game by halftime. However, in the process of turning
the game into a lopsided affair, Hill could also burn the Giants
secondary that’s been giving up splash plays for weeks.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt is not an RB1, but I fully
expect him to be one this week. This is an ideal spot for Hunt
to see close to 30 touches in Andy Reid’s favorite type
of game – build a lead and sit on it. Hunt hasn’t
found the end zone since Week 3 and hasn’t eclipsed 100
yards rushing since Week 5. The Chiefs won their first five games.
During the four games Hunt failed to reach 100 yards, the Chiefs
lost three and faced Denver in the lone win. Carlos Hyde averaged
5.8 ypc against the Giants last week and the 49ers rushed for
186 yards as a team. Hunt has had a week off to rest and will
be ready to go out of the bye to crush this joke of a Giants defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning was having a boring fantasy
day last week until his garbage time touchdown to Roger Lewis.
There could be a lot of garbage time this week as well, which
makes Manning a potential streaming option, but not necessarily
an appealing one. Relying on garbage time is always tricky. Sterling
Shepard and Evan Engram continue to dominate targets as Shepard
saw 13 last week and Engram saw nine. Engram now has a touchdown
in four straight games while Shepard has 22 targets since returning
from his ankle injury. Both are strong fantasy options, especially
on a team facing a lot of negative game script. The Chiefs have
not been a defensive stalwart this season so this matchup is not
one to fear. Neither Lewis nor Tavarres King are seeing enough
usage to be worth rostering or starting.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: With the football world finally having
rid itself of Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa has capitalized on
his opportunity to be the main back for the Giants. Darkwa rushed
for 70 yards on 14 carries while adding a two-point conversion
as well as 18 yards through the air. He dominated backfield touches
ahead of Wayne Gallman and Shane Vereen and has the looks of a
volume based RB2 going forward. Game script will be a problem
for the Giants all year, but it was a problem last week against
the 49ers and Darkwa handled himself just fine. Darkwa is averaging
5.1 ypc this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Reid worked wonders off a bye for years
with the Eagles. Now we will see how Doug Pederson fares with
extra time to prepare. He’s done a great job with the offense
this season. Carson Wentz is probably the frontrunner for MVP.
He’s elevated his play and actually become a legitimate
dual threat QB. The last time Wentz failed to throw for multiple
touchdowns was in Week 4. His yardage numbers have been relatively
low recently, but he’s been remarkably efficient even with
a low completion percentage. He still throws the ball into danger
far too often, but for fantasy purposes, not only do we not care,
we actually encourage it – we want Wentz taking shots downfield.
After being ridiculed by me for weeks, Alshon Jeffery made it
a point to put me in my place with his play two weeks ago. Jeffery
caught six passes on 11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown.
Wentz is slowly beginning to treat Jeffery as the primary option.
Jeffery did pop up on the injury report Thursday and said he is
playing through an ankle injury. He is not expected to miss time
or be limited, but it’s clear he is operating at suboptimal
capacity.
To the surprise of no one (or at least not me), Nelson Agholor
is not a viable fantasy option. He hasn’t scored in his
last two games and is completely nonviable when he doesn’t
score. Even with Zach Ertz out, Agholor only posted 36 yards on
two catches. Ertz is fully healed up following the bye and ready
to return to his elite TE1 ways. Ertz has 81 yards or a touchdown
in every game he’s played this season. There’s nothing
more to say. He’s the best TE in fantasy.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: In his first game with the Eagles, Jay
Ajayi rushed for 77 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. If
you’re an Ajayi owner, you absolutely should not be encouraged
by what you saw and would’ve been best off trying to trade
Ajayi off the big game. The Eagles do not care about your fantasy
team or about having a feature back. They rotate RBs as they see
fit. In that same game, Corey Clement had 12 carries, LeGarrette
Blount had eight, and Wendell Smallwood had five. Smallwood’s
carries came in garbage time so we can dismiss him, but Ajayi,
Blount, and Clement are a three man committee. Ajayi is not going
to see the volume and his touchdown run wasn’t all that
impressive. Just about every RB not named Rob Kelley, Eddie Lacy,
or Paul Perkins would’ve scored on that play. It was just
incredibly well blocked. With Sean Lee out for the Cowboys, the
Eagles will be able to run the ball well. Their backfield will
produce strong fantasy numbers. Which guys put up those numbers
is a complete guessing game and one I would want no part of.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ugh. Last week’s game was painful
to watch. Jason Garrett said at Wednesday’s press conference
that he probably should’ve had a TE or someone help Chaz
Green last week. You think? I’m not here to say the Cowboys
win that game if Tyron Smith plays. I’m just here to say
that Chaz Green single handedly lost the game for the Cowboys.
Smith’s absence is by far the biggest problem for the Cowboys
offense – far greater than Ezekiel Elliott’s absence.
If Smith can’t play this week, I expect Garrett to have
a plan to prevent what happened last week from happening again,
but it still won’t be good enough. Dak Prescott took a beating
last week and it scares me to think what would’ve happened
to a non mobile QB in the same situation.
This week’s game should feature a lot of points and Prescott
will have to throw to keep up with Wentz. If the Cowboys can get
their blocking in order, Prescott should bounce back nicely and
post his usual elite QB1 numbers. He should continue to scramble
a lot as well. I feel like I say this every week, but Dez Bryant
isn’t good anymore. Just four catches on eight targets for
39 yards last week. He’s catching just 50% of balls thrown
his way from a QB with a 63% completion percentage. It’s
not a scheme or offense problem. It’s on Dez. Terrance Williams
bounced back to reality after his explosion against Kansas City.
Williams also is not good. He can continue to be ignored. Jason
Witten caught all seven of his targets last week for 59 yards.
He’s the most reliable of this pass catching unit.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: The only thing we know for sure is that
it’s not Darren McFadden. Rod Smith led the backfield in
snaps while Alfred Morris led in touches and yards. Morris is
going to be the first and second down guy while Smith will be
the passing down back. That’s the split. Game script is
going to dictate a lot of what happens in this backfield. If you
are a Zeke owner that protected yourself with one or three of
these guys, regrettably, it didn’t work. Morris and Smith
are desperation flex plays. I’m sure one of them will score
a touchdown sooner rather than later, but neither is reliable.
Sometimes you take away one player and two fantasy viable players
emerge, like with Ajayi. Other times, you take away one player
and he’s just gone. The Cowboys once great offense is now
down to pretty much just Dak Prescott as a reliable fantasy option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After publicly claiming that the team would
stick with Tyrod Taylor earlier this week, Bills head coach Sean
McDermott has now announced that his team will move rookie Nathen
Peterman into the starting quarterback role heading into Week
11’s matchup against the Chargers. Peterman played minimally
in garbage time against the Saints this past week but put together
better fantasy numbers in less than one quarter than Taylor had
to start the game. Peterman himself does not possess nearly the
mobility that Taylor does which obviously limits his own upside
for fantasy purposes but he is likely a better pure passer, which
should help his weapons.
Unfortunately, his weapons are banged up and really aren’t
all that great to begin with. Kelvin Benjamin is really the only
wideout worth considering for fantasy purposes in this matchup
against the Chargers and even that is just a hopeful speculation
that he’ll be the team’s top option should they make
it into the red zone. Tight end Charles Clay does play a role
that many would classify as a “safety valve” for his
young quarterback but the Chargers have been excellent against
opposing tight ends this season, limiting the position to the
second-fewest fantasy points per game of any team this season.
There may be better days ahead for the Buffalo passing game but
it’d be wise to go with a “wait-and-see” approach
instead of inserting any of these players into your lineup at
the moment.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: With back-to-back games with fewer than
50 rushing yards, fantasy owners of LeSean McCoy are beginning
to panic – and rightfully so. With the Bills struggling
to move the ball or stop opposing offenses, the game script has
simply been terrible for the Buffalo running game. McCoy himself
is still one of the shiftiest players in the league who is capable
of breaking long runs at any time so there’s still hope
here, but the upside of him being a high-end, every week stud
at the position is simply not realistic at this point.
Thankfully, this could be a “get right” game for
McCoy as he will almost certainly be relied upon heavily to take
the pressure off of his rookie quarterback, and he’ll be
running against a San Diego defense that has been absolutely abused
by opposing running games this season, especially in the passing
game where McCoy is one of the league’s best assets at the
running back position. Look for McCoy to be utilized heavily out
of the backfield as a receiver, making him one of the strongest
PPR plays on the board and still a solid RB1 even in standard
scoring formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There are always excuses that can be made
but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Philip Rivers
just doesn’t have “it” anymore. His decision
making has always been questionable but his arm is no longer making
up for those poor decisions. Rivers’ struggles have, of
course, spilled over onto his receivers, most of which have become
essentially non-factors for fantasy purposes. Keenan Allen is
still by far the team’s top target in the passing game but
he hasn’t been over 70 receiving yards in a game since Week
4 and he’s only scored one touchdown all season –
all the way back in Week 1. Travis Benjamin remains a deep threat
but is fully capable of giving fantasy owners a goose egg every
week while rookie Mike Williams simply has not lived up to the
billing, even now that he’s healthy. Tight ends Hunter Henry
and Antonio Gates continue to be extraordinarily inconsistent
and neither is a reliable option at tight end, although Henry
is likely a fantasy starter most weeks just due to the low scoring
at the position overall this season. The Bills have been beaten
up quite a bit over the past few weeks but it’s mostly been
on the ground, so look for the Chargers to try to protect their
struggling passing game by relying heavily on the run, which could
lead to a lower-than-expected day for Rivers and his receivers.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon owners are baffled right
now at the sudden emergence of running back Austin Ekeler who
has seen his snaps increase significantly over the past few weeks,
particularly playing quite a bit down the stretch in last week’s
close loss to the Jaguars. Ekeler huge fantasy performance was
primarily due to the two receiving touchdowns he scored, which
is obviously not easily repeatable, so don’t jump the gun
on him quite yet. But Gordon owners need to take notice of Ekeler,
who will likely continue to take snaps away from Gordon for the
time being and could be a major piece of the offense should Gordon
suffer another late-season injury. Gordon does make for a great
fantasy option this week, however, as he’ll be running against
a Buffalo run defense that put up one of the most embarrassing
performance we’ve seen in recent memory against New Orleans
in Week 10. Buffalo is using a rookie quarterback in his first
start while traveling across the country for a road game. That’s
not exactly the recipe for a high point total, which should give
the Chargers the opportunity to run the ball heavily in this game.
That could even mean that Ekeler has some upside as a Flex option,
especially in PPR formats, in this potential blowout victory.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After being an elite pass defense once again
to start the season, the Broncos have simply fallen apart over
the past two weeks, having given up a shocking seven passing touchdowns
over that span. Of course, it’s worth noting that they gave
those scores up to Carson Wentz and Tom Brady – arguably
the league’s top two contenders for Most Valuable Player
– but there’s plenty of reason to be concerned if
you’re a Broncos fan and optimistic if you’re a fantasy
owner of Andy Dalton or A.J. Green. Dalton himself has been off
more than he’s been on this season and the Broncos pass
rush will likely make things difficult on him this week but Green
has been red hot, scoring touchdowns in five of his past seven
contests, including a five catch, 115-yard day with a touchdown
against the Titans in Week 10. Green is a locked and loaded WR1
even in what could be a fairly difficult matchup, simply due to
the fact that he’s so heavily targeted in this Cincinnati
offense.
The other receiver out wide for the Bengals is Brandon LaFell
who has been off-and-on but did well this past week against a
weak Tennessee secondary. You could give him a look if you’re
desperate but it would probably be wise to find someone else to
start. Another player to keep an eye on as a sleeper, especially
in DFS, is tight end Tyler Kroft. Kroft was a non-factor in Week
10 which could keep his ownership low as he heads into one of
the best possible matchups for a tight end – a home matchup
against the Broncos and their 31st-ranked fantasy defense against
the position. The Broncos have given up touchdowns to opposing
tight ends in six of their previous eight contests and five or
more receptions to the position in all but one game this season.
Needless to say, Kroft has some serious potential for a breakout
performance in this game.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: He’s salvaged otherwise terrible
fantasy days over the past few weeks with touchdowns, but it’s
beginning to look like it’s just not going to happen for
Joe Mixon this season. Jeremy Hill’s placement on IR certainly
opens things up for the rookie, especially at the goal line, but
it’s risky to trust a player who hasn’t rushed for
more than 62 yards in any game this season and who has only exceeded
more than three receptions in one contest. He’s getting
some decent volume in the grand scheme of the running back position
but he’s also not a particularly high-upside option. This
week he’ll face a Denver run defense that had been extremely
stout against the position for the majority of the season but
struggled over the past two weeks to shut down the Philadelphia
and New England running games, giving up a combined four rushing
scores over those two contests. Obviously the Bengals’ offense
is not nearly as good as the Eagles or Patriots but there is some
hope here for Mixon owners who will likely be banking on another
goal line rushing touchdown to save an otherwise bland fantasy
day for the rookie back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Broncos still starting Brock Osweiler,
there’s just not much to like about the Denver passing game
or really the team as a whole. Osweiler brings practically no
upside, is terrible under pressure and could very well be in for
another one of his signature, single-digit fantasy performances.
The one positive that Osweiler has brought back to the Denver
offense is his insistence on targeting his top two weapons, Emmanuel
Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has actually scored a touchdown
in each of his past two games after a long stretch of not getting
into the end zone with Siemian behind center. Meanwhile, Sanders
had by far his biggest yardage game of the season this past week,
catching six passes for 137 yards against the Patriots. Even if
Osweiler throws a number of interceptions in this game and the
Broncos end up getting blown out, there’s a real possibility
that Sanders and Thomas – or at least one of the two –
performs well enough to be a solid fantasy play this week. Because
of that, we’re back to listing both of them as WR2s even
in what could be a fairly tough matchup against a solid Cincinnati
defense.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The Denver running game has been a head
scratcher all season and it’s getting to the point where
it’s barely worth discussing as none of the players are
doing much and the team is playing poorly enough that they really
don’t even touch the ball late in contests. C.J. Anderson
is probably the player to go with if you absolutely have to start
a Denver running back but avoiding this situation altogether is
probably the optimal move. The Bengals have been beaten down on
the ground lately but even that shouldn’t inspire any confidence
out of a backfield where three different running backs are all
getting between a half-dozen to a dozen touches per week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Just when there was concern that perhaps
Tom Brady was running into a tough matchup, he reminded everyone
that he is indeed the best quarterback on the planet. Brady torched
an excellent Denver secondary in Week 10 and has now thrown 19
touchdowns on the season with just two interceptions. The Patriots’
offense is absolutely rolling and while Brady is a master of spreading
the ball around, he does such a good job of it that multiple receivers
are typically viable for fantasy purposes every week in this New
England offense. Obviously Rob Gronkowski remains perhaps the
most no-brainer starter in all of fantasy football and he’ll
be against a Raiders defense that got torched by Julius Thomas
the last time we saw them.
Aside from Gronk, the next best option in the passing game continues
to be Brandin Cooks who has undoubtedly been a disappointment
for those who were selecting him early in the second round of
fantasy drafts this summer, but Cooks has been a consistent enough
producer to give his fantasy owners a high floor with upside –
something that is quite difficult to come by, especially this
season. Cooks may not finish as a WR1 this week but he’s
still a WR1 in the rankings because he’s unlikely to finish
lower than a WR2 which makes him one of the safer plays on the
board. With Chris Hogan still out, the Patriots’ other weapons,
including Danny Amendola and Martellus Bennett, become potential
bye week replacement-level options in this offense if they’re
on the field. They’re both risky due to low volume but the
Raiders’ pass defense isn’t very good and we know
that Brady is going to be slinging the rock all around the field.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: With Mike Gillislee recently being a healthy
scratch last week, the New England backfield has turned from a
four-headed tragedy to a three-headed ball of confusion. A case
could be made for starting Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis or James White,
but the truth is that it’s anyone’s guess as to which
one of these backs is going to see significant enough touches
to be viable for fantasy purposes. The positive is that we’re
pretty sure that at least one of them will do so – we just
don’t know which. Typically it’s been James White
who has been the most consistent player, at least for PPR purposes,
but he’s practically a non-factor as a runner so be sure
to know your scoring system before you place him in your lineup.
Rex Burkhead has caught 10 passes over the past two weeks and
also got 10 carries this past week so he’s been a much bigger
factor as of late and could be worth consideration. However, the
player who I personally like the best out of this backfield at
the moment is actually Dion Lewis, who has seen double-digit carries
in four straight contests and seems to be getting the bulk of
the work near the goal line.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s no secret that Derek Carr has
struggled mightily this season after being one of the true MVP
candidates of the 2016 season. Carr has finished with fewer than
14 fantasy points in five of his past six starts and it has hurt
his receivers badly. Amari Cooper has just three double-digit
PPR fantasy days on the season and while Michael Crabtree has
been significantly more consistent because of his high red zone
usage, he has also failed to exceed 83 receiving yards or six
receptions in any game this season. Thankfully, this struggling
unit is now coming off of a bye, everyone’s getting healthy,
and they’re going to be up against a New England pass defense
that has been one of the worst in the league this season. Even
after facing some struggling opposing passing games in recent
weeks, the Patriots still rank second-to-worst in fantasy points
given up to opposing quarterbacks on the season. The potential
of a New England blowout could lend itself to some garbage time
production for Carr and the weapons in this passing game so strongly
consider getting Carr, Crabtree and Cooper into your lineup. Jared
Cook is also a great play this weekend as he’s been over
100 receiving yards in two of his past three contests and should
get plenty of looks in this game.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: A two-touchdown performance against the
Dolphins is the last thing we saw from Marshawn Lynch prior to
the Raiders’ bye week but don’t let that game fool
you – this running game is absolutely terrible right now.
Lynch himself has not exceeded 76 rushing yards in any game this
season, he’s failed to reach even 50 rushing yards in all
but three games this season, he’s still a non-factor in
the passing game and this game could get out of hand fairly early.
All of those factors play into why Lynch is a Flex option at best
this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Reigning NFL MVP award winner Matt Ryan
was believed to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks heading
into the 2017 but that simply has not panned out on the field.
While he’s been turning things up a bit as of late, Ryan
has still not exceeded even 20 fantasy points in any game so far
in 2017 and this week he heads to Seattle to play in one of the
loudest, most difficult to play in stadiums in all of sports.
The positive, from a fantasy standpoint, is that the Seahawks
will be without two of the league’s best defenders, safety
Kam Chancellor and cornerback Richard Sherman. Not only that,
but the team’s other safety, Earl Thomas, is banged up and
could be exploitable in this contest. Unfortunately for the Falcons,
their top receiving option, Julio Jones, is also nursing an ankle
injury and while he’s expected to play, he will be unlikely
to be at 100 percent on Monday night. Jones himself has been disappointing
this season as he’s only scored one touchdown on the year,
but he still narrowly ranks within the top 12 at his position
and he’s been in double-digits in PPR formats in all but
one game. Jones is a locked-and-loaded WR1 in this matchup with
a seriously high upside even if he’s not at full strength.
Even Mohamed Sanu should be considered a WR3/Flex play this week
against this banged up Seattle secondary.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: With the Seahawks defense being nowhere
near full strength, look for Atlanta to get more scoring opportunities
than they normally would against a lockdown defense like Seattle’s.
That plays right into why Tevin Coleman should be considered a
RB1 even though the Seahawks have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy
points to opposing running backs so far this season. With Devonta
Freeman doubtful to play as he recovers from a concussion, Coleman
is expected to get the lion’s share of the backfield touches.
Coleman has been the more efficient player of the two this season
as it is and the potential for him to touch the ball 20 times
is there, thus making him a big time potential breakout player
in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With 19 total touchdowns over his past seven
games, Russell Wilson has now reestablished himself as one of
the league’s premiere fantasy weapons. The Seahawks have
practically completely abandoned the run, leaving Wilson to throw
the ball constantly throughout the game, which has led to some
monstrous fantasy performances. Even when he’s not passing,
Wilson has gotten back to taking off and running with the ball,
which fantasy owners always love to see. With Jimmy Graham fully
back and dominating opposing defenses, there’s little reason
to believe that Wilson won’t be one of the top three fantasy
quarterbacks in the league this season. There’s some concern
that he might struggle against the Falcons this week after Atlanta
held Dak Prescott and Cam Newton without passing touchdowns in
back-to-back games but Wilson’s volume should allow him
to avoid the same struggles that Newton and Prescott faced. This
might be a time to bench the depth receivers in this offense like
Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett, but Graham, Doug Baldwin and
of course Wilson himself should be considered premiere fantasy
must-starts this week.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The duo of Thomas Rawls and J.D. McKissic
didn’t do much even in a win over the Cardinals so with
Eddie Lacy expected to return, this already pathetic backfield
becomes even less fantasy relevant. If you have to pick one player,
make it Rawls who has at least seen double-digit touches in back-to-back
games, but the best solution is just to look elsewhere. No Seattle
back has seen even 10 fantasy points (PPR) in a game since Week
3. The Falcons have given up just 66 rushing yards per game over
their past three contests and that trend seems likely to continue
this week against the Seahawks’ ugly rushing attack.