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Inside the Matchup
Week 4
9/28/16; Updated: 9/30/16

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Jake Gordon



MIA @ CIN | OAK @ BAL | KC @ PIT | DET @ CHI

NYG @ MIN | IND @ JAX | TEN @ HOU | CAR @ ATL

DEN @ TB | BUF @ NE | SEA @ NYJ | CLE @ WAS

LAR @ ARI | DAL @ SF | NO @ SD

Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Dolphins @ Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill is posting good fantasy statistics through the first three weeks (892-5-4; 54-1) but his “real life” performance could lead to new Head Coach Adam Gase looking elsewhere for a field general next season. Tannehill put up most of those stats in the second half of a loss to the Patriots who were protecting a big lead and in an overtime win against the lowly Browns, with both teams fielding their third string quarterbacks at the time. This week he heads into a tough matchup on paper, before the Bengals allowed Trevor Siemian - making his first road start - to have the best game of his brief career (23-35, 312-4-0). The Bengals are allowing 247 passing yards per game and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns in the league (9). The Dolphins do feature a productive trio at the wide receiver position in Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills who all feature distinct skill sets which could pose major problems to a beat up Bengals secondary. Landry has seen double digit targets in each game this season and in 23 of his last 27 games. When the Dolphins fall behind, that streak should continue.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Running Game Thoughts: With Arian Foster expected to miss another weak, the Dolphins will likely once again trot out an uninspiring four-man RBBC on a short week. Kenyan Drake (11), Jay Ajayi (7), Isaiah Pead (5) and Damian Williams (4) all saw touches last week with Ajayi and Williams both finding the endzone. Obviously this does not create a good situation for fantasy owners even when the team is facing the 18th ranked rushing defense. Further muddying the situation is the fact that the Bengals have not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season and in addition get star linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from suspension this week which will only help the run defense. Not surprisingly, this will be a situation to avoid for all but those in the deepest of leagues.

Value Meter:
QB2: Ryan Tannehill
WR2: Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker
FLEX: Kenny Stills
Bench: Jordan Cameron (concussion), Jay Ajayi, Kenyan Drake

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals passing game will look to get back on track after getting swallowed up by the Broncos at home last week. Andy Dalton has struggled to find a connection with any of his weapons outside of A.J. Green, and seems to miss Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the injured Tyler Eifert. The team has only two passing touchdowns on the season through three weeks as it looks for Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd or Tyler Kroft to step up as an alternative to Green. This week’s matchup should help. The Dolphins are allowing 267 passing yards per game and have yielded 4 touchdowns through the air, with only 1 interception, making them a favorable matchup for quarterbacks and most wide receivers. Additionally, Terrelle Pryor (8-144) ate up cornerback Byron Maxwell last week which bodes well for A.J. Green.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals finally got their running game going last week. Jeremy Hill had 17 carries gaining 97 yards and found the endzone twice. The Bengals have faced three tough run defenses so far (NYJ, PIT, DEN) but the sledding gets much easier this week against a Miami team that is allowing 147.3 yards per game on the ground, the second highest total in the NFL. In a game where the Bengals should be controlling the clock, it sets up well for Hill to have a repeat performance. Giovani Bernard is two spots ahead of Hill in the RB rankings to date thanks to his 100-yd receiving effort in Week 2, but has been out-touced by Hill 40-31.

Value Meter:
QB2: Andy Dalton
RB2: Jeremy Hill
WR1: A.J. Green
FLEX: Giovani Bernard
Bench: Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Kroft, C.J. Uzomah

Prediction: Bengals 26, Dolphins 20 ^ Top

Raiders @ Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback Derek Carr has taken that next step everyone was expecting and has worked his way into the weekly QB1 conversation. He’s passed for 867 yards with 5 touchdowns against only 1 interception and has played well on the road during his brief career. This week he will head into Baltimore to face a team that is allowing only 168.3 passing yards per game and have been tough on quarterbacks dating back to last season. None of Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown nor Blake Bortles returned better than QB15 value facing the Raiders during the first three weeks, so Carr owners may want to explore other options. Amari Cooper has yet to find the endzone this season and has dropped a few balls as well, but went over 100 yards and scored a touchdown last year against Baltimore and could be ready for a breakout week.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray has not seen heavy volume this season (40 touches) but has been efficient with his carries averaging 4.8 yards per carry and finding the endzone in all three games so far this season. The team has worked rookies DeAndre Washington (20 touches) and Jalen Richard (20 touches) into the mix and each have shown flashes of big play ability. The Raiders looked to find competition for Murray this off-season, so it seems clear that they feel more comfortable limiting his touches. Fantasy owners should plan accordingly as his touchdown rate is likely to be unsustainable.

Value Meter:
QB2: Derek Carr
RB2: Latavius Murray
WR2: Amari Cooper
TE2: Clive Walford
Bench: Michael Crabtree, Seth Roberts, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is what he is, as far as fantasy goes. He’s a high floor QB2 who lacks any real upside despite the Ravens high volume passing offense. The real issue for Flacco is the team is limited by solid but unspectacular weapons in the passing game. The fact that Steve Smith, in his age 37 season, is the team’s leading wide receiver tells you all you need to know. Mike Wallace has shown that he still has the deep speed to make big plays, but doesn’t have the all-around game to command heavy targets. Tight end Dennis Pitta should continue to see heavy targets but is limited after the catch. The Oakland pass defense stepped up last week against an underwhelming Tennessee passing attack but was lit up in Weeks 1 and 2 by Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a big week from Flacco at home against a defense allowing a league worst 340 passing yards per game, so for those of you who own Aaron Rodgers or are steaming quarterbacks you may want to take a look.

OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Running Game Thoughts: Baltimore’s two-man RBBC has been nothing short of a fantasy wasteland. Both Justin Forsett and Terrance West rank near the bottom of fantasy RBs that have seen significant touches. Proactive owners may want to grab Kenneth Dixon off the waiver wires, as he should be able to work his way into a significant role once healthy. Surprisingly Oakland has performed poorly against the run despite a talented front seven, allowing 136 yards per game allowing big games to the RB duo in Atlanta and DeMarco Murray from Tennessee. With that said, you don’t want to start any part of the Ravens backfield right now.

Value Meter:
QB2: Joe Flacco
WR3: Steve Smith
FLEX: Mike Wallace
TE2: Dennis Pitta
Bench: Terrance West, Justin Forsett, Breshad Perriman, Kamar Aiken

Prediction: Ravens 24, Raiders 20 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers are giving up 332 passing yards per game, but have actually covered wide receivers fairly well, since half of those yards are coming from the tight end and running back positions. The Steelers have been picked apart by the short passing game with opposing players gaining yards after the catch. If ever there was a quarterback whose eyes would light up after reading that statistic, it would be Alex Smith. Smith makes his living taking what the defense gives him and dumping off to his running backs and tight end. Travis Kelce has been a large beneficiary of Smith’s tendencies and has accounted for 197 of Smith’s 786 yards passing this season. Even with Jamaal Charles out once again the Chiefs still have adept pass catchers at the running back position. It’s almost as if the Chiefs’ offense was built to play against the Steelers.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: Surprisingly the Chiefs have not really missed Charles all that much as Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West have stepped in, much like they did last season, and played extremely well. Despite only 41 carries on the season, Ware leads all running backs in runs gaining more than 10 yards with nine. Ware has slowly gained a larger and larger share of the backfield snaps after splitting the time evenly with West in Week 1. Expect Ware to see the bulk of touches in this game as West (ankle) has missed practice this week. The Steelers have been one of the league’s stingiest teams against the run allowing only 75.3 yards per game and 3 rushing touchdowns on the season so fantasy owners will need to hope that Ware can contribute in the passing game in order to see big production.

Value Meter:
QB2: Alex Smith
RB2: Spencer Ware
TE1: Travis Kelce
Bench: Charcandrick West, Jeremy Maclin, Chris Conley

Passing Game Thoughts: Big Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 18 touchdown passes in his last seven home games and should come into this contest highly motivated after his team was shellacked by the Eagles last week. The Steelers’ offense was held to a mere field goal in that game. The Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league and are coming off a game where they picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times. Antonio Brown caught 12 balls last week and while he’ll likely be matched up with Marcus Peters, fantasy owners can take solace in the fact that Brown had six catches for 124 yards last season in Kansas City and that was with Landry Jones under center. Obviously Ben and Brown should be safe starts, but with Eli Rogers (toe) likely sidelined, there isn’t all that much else in this passing game that should draw interest.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Running Game Thoughts: For those worried about the Steelers easing in Le’Veon Bell, coach Mike Tomlin has said to expect a lot of Bell this week. Remember that Bell played 60 out of 63 snaps for the team last season his first week back from suspension. DeAngelo Williams’ owners should equally bear in mind that Williams saw only five snaps in that game. Bell’s knee was healthy enough for him to play in preseason games so that shouldn’t be an issue. Bell totaled 137 yards last year against the Chiefs and that seems like a good over/under number for this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Ben Roethlisberger
RB1: Le’Veon Bell
WR1: Antonio Brown
FLEX: Sammie Coates
Bench: Markus Wheaton, Jesse James

Prediction: Steelers 28, Chiefs 20 ^ Top

Lions @ Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones led a furious near comeback against Green Bay last week at Lambeau Field, and get a soft matchup this week as they head into Soldier Field. Jones has been dominant this season, compiling 408 yards through three weeks accounting for more than 40 percent of the Lions’ passing yardage. Golden Tate’s fantasy owners likely thought he’d see a nice bump with Megatron’s retirement but his role in the offense has actually decreased accounting for less than 10% of the team’s passing yards while averaging 7 targets per game. The Bears have allowed only four passing touchdowns and 214.3 passing yards per game so on the surface this looks like a poor matchup, but those numbers likely reflect the Bears inability to stop the run and score points on offense rather than the talent level of the defense.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Running Game Thoughts: Theo Riddick saw an increase in carries with Ameer Abdullah’s injury but failed to capitalize gaining only 9 yards on his 10 carries. Riddick could be forced back into his role as a third-down back in favor of rookie Dwayne Washington who gained 38 yards on the same number of carries. This week should help get the Detroit running game going as the Bears are allowing 142.7 rushing yards per game and have yielded 5 rushing scores. Both Riddick and Washington should see an increase in volume this week against a team that has faced the most rushing attempts against this season - especially if they get out to an early lead.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matthew Stafford
RB2: Theo Riddick
WR1: Marvin Jones
FLEX: Dwayne Washington, Anquan Boldin
TE1: Eric Ebron
Bench: Golden Tate

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler will be out again due to a thumb injury that cost him last week’s game, which means journeyman Brian Hoyer gets another start. That will likely only have a negligible effect on the passing game, however. Interestingly, Kevin White (27) has seen more targets than Alshon Jeffrey (20) on the season, but has been far less efficient with those targets – 132 yards for White versus 271 for Jeffrey. Fourteen of White’s targets came last week with Hoyer under center and Jeffrey banged up with a knee injury so it will be interesting to see if this discrepancy corrects itself going forward. Detroit presents a soft matchup in the passing game allowing 264.3 passing yards per contest and a league leading 10 touchdown passes on the season so there is some potential, but the Bears’ passing game has been so unsuccessful this season it’s tough for fantasy owners to trust any part of it with the possible exception of tight end Zach Miller. He could be peppered with targets as the Bears try and play catch up. Detroit has allowed 5 touchdowns to the tight end position already this season season.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Running Game Thoughts: Chicago ranks last in rushing attempts and is 30th in rushing yards with only 210 on the season. The Bears offensive line is in shambles leaving their running backs with little room to run. Starting back Jeremy Langford will miss 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain and with Ka’Deem Carey nursing a sore hamstring the Bears will turn to rookie Jordan Howard to carry the load. While Detroit is allowing 114.7 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry, it’s hard to imagine the straight ahead power runner finding much running room with the state of the o-line. The game flow will also likely not provide much opportunity for the Bears to establish a running game as they try to keep up with the high powered Lions’ passing game.

Value Meter:
WR3: Alshon Jeffery
TE1: Zach Miller
FLEX: Kevin White
Bench: Brian Hoyer, Eddie Royal, Jordan Howard

Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 19 ^ Top

Giants @ Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has not finished as a QB1 (in 12 team leagues) yet this season, and expecting that to change this week would be foolish. The Giants travel to Minnesota to face a defense that just destroyed Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. The Vikings have only allowed 3 passing touchdowns on the season and held Kelvin Benjamin to a goose egg in Week 3 so it would be hard to strongly recommend any member of this passing attack. Of course anyone that drafted Odell Beckham Jr. in the early first round will have a tough time benching him, but he has yet to find the endzone and will be the focal point of a defense that has only allowed one wide receiver to score this season. In PPR leagues rookie Sterling Sheppard and his 16 receptions could be a decent play as the Vikings focus their attention on OBJ.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Running Game Thoughts: Shane Vereen (triceps) was placed on IR and Rashad Jennings is expected to miss at least one more game with his thumb injury, which gives the backfield to Orleans Darkwa and veteran journeyman Bobby Rainey. Darkwa had some success filling in last season but is a limited runner facing a defense giving up only 84 rushing yards per game. Rainey could have some PPR value, but could also lose snaps to rookie Paul Perkins. With the tough matchup and uncertainties it is probably best to avoid the situation if possible.

Value Meter:
WR3: Sterling Shepard, Odell Beckham Jr.
FLEX: Bobby Rainey (PPR leagues)
Bench: Eli Manning, Orleans Darkwa, Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell

Passing Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has played well for the Vikings, but like the quarterback he replaced, Teddy Bridgewater, his fantasy value is likely to be low in a conservative offense that is only looking to not turn the ball over. Bradford’s volume is among the lowest in the league and his value will be touchdown dependant. Kyle Rudolph and Stefon Diggs have been Bradford’s go-to-guys but with such a small pie from which to take slices, they both have low weekly floors. Diggs’ explosiveness gives him a high ceiling however, and his owners will likely want to keep him active most weeks. The Giants spent a lot of money on their defense this offseason, but so far it has mostly helped boost their run defense. Against the pass they have merely been average allowing 262.3 yards per game through the air, but they have only allowed 3 passing scores.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: The Vikings have rushed for a league worst 51 yards per game. Ideally their philosophy would be to run the ball and rely on their elite defense, but their offensive line has not cooperated. Adrian Peterson was dreadful, so on the surface it would appear his loss would have little impact, but in reality the opposing defenses are likely breathing a sigh of relief. Last week Jerick McKinnon out-snapped Matt Asiata 36-to-19 and out-touched him 17-to-7 so it’s clear the team would like McKinnon to be the lead back. Asiata has looked much better in pass protection however, so that could change as the season moves on, if McKinnon doesn’t show improvement. The Giants have been a top 5 rush defense this year, allowing only 77.3 yards per game and only 1 rushing touchdown. McKinnon should see enough volume to earn some lineup consideration, but keep in mind this isn’t last year’s Giants’ run defense.

Value Meter:
QB2: Sam Bradford
RB3: Jerick McKinnon
WR2: Stefon Diggs
TE2: Kyle Rudolph
Bench: Matt Asiata, Charles Johnson

Prediction: Minnesota 20, Giants 13 ^ Top

Colts at Jaguars - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: In the two seasons preceding 2015 the Colts dominated the Jaguars going 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 25 points. I bring it up because those teams had a healthy Andrew Luck at the helm of an offense that didn’t need to throw the ball as much to get the W. As a result, Luck has averaged less than two touchdown passes in six career games against the Jags. This game feels more like a lopsided victory waiting to happen than a favorable shootout for fantasy owners. Jacksonville’s pass defense is improving but they are still amongst the ten most favorable match ups for quarterbacks and receivers as we enter Week 4. T.Y. Hilton (knee) has been able to practice this week and should continue to be Andrew Luck’s preferred target in the passing game. He racked up 11 targets in the team’s first outing without Donte Moncrief. Meanwhile Phillip Dorsett is starting to look more like a boom or bust play that will produce inconsistent fantasy results. The more things change, the more they stay the same with the production from the tight end position being split between two players. This situation limits the upside of both players and makes Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen TE2s this week.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore hasn’t found the end zone against Jacksonville since 2013 so owners hoping for a repeat of his Week 3 performance (82 yards and a TD on 21 carries) may want to temper expectations. He’ll remain a steady source of 16-18 touches so he stays on the RB3 map. Robert Turbin and Josh Ferguson have been productive in backup roles albeit on limited touches. Turbin’s past two games with a touchdown still feel more like coincidence than the emergence of a touchdown vulture but it is worth monitoring in the next few weeks as this could cut into Gore’s season long value.

Value Meter:
QB1: Andrew Luck
RB3: Frank Gore
WR1: T.Y. Hilton
FLEX: Phillip Dorsett
Bench: Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle, Robert Turbin, Josh Ferguson, Quan Bray

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles doesn’t look anything like the guy who threw three touchdowns against the Colts in December last year. The passing game has been hampered by Bortles’ six interceptions, limiting the team’s scoring opportunities in the process. The Colts have allowed opposing offenses to complete over 71 percent of their passes which opens the door for the Jacksonville passing attack to get into rhythm Week 4. Allen Robinson got back on track in Week 3 against a stingy Baltimore defense with two touchdowns. He squares off against an opponent that limited him to five catches on 16 targets in two games last season. Nevertheless, the talent and targets are among the very best at his position and Indy just gave up over 300 passing yards to the Chargers so keep the faith and plug him into the lineup this week. Marqise Lee has made a case to become this team’s second best fantasy wideout. He isn’t putting up blistering numbers yet but with back-to-back games with seven targets he could sneak up on a defense that overplays Allen Robinson.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville desperately wants to get the running game going to take the pressure off Bortles but Chris Ivory’s injury issues (knee, ankle) continue to torment the prospects of this unit. Ivory’s running style is not conducive to playing hurt and T.J. Yeldon has seen his YPC drop from 4.1 as a rookie to 2.5. Ivory practiced in full on Thursday and all signs point to him leading the rushing game in carries for Jacksonville Sunday. Yeldon is stuck in a rut playing second fiddle as a rusher and seeing his passing stats suffer due to Bortles’ poor decision making. The silver lining to tease anyone owning one of these guys is that Indy has allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs after three weeks. I’m not sure that matters much since the Jaguars have only rushed for 168 yards all season and 53 of those have come from Bortles.

Value Meter:
QB2: Blake Bortles
WR2: Allen Robinson
FLEX: Allen Hurns
TE1: Julius Thomas
Bench: Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon, Marqise Lee

Prediction: Colts 28, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Titans at Texans - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans are averaging 35 passing attempts per game paired with a 6.8 yards per catch rating. That’s not what you want to see if you own any part of this passing game. Marcus Mariota comes into this game with four passing touchdowns to his name against four interceptions and the Texans have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I thought this team would utilize the short passing game more efficiently considering their shifty receivers but that has yet to materialize. Delanie Walker (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. He could be playing at less than full health and doesn’t have the best match up so Walker owners should look into alternatives for Week 4. Tajae Sharpe (hamstring) was limited this week in practice but the expectation is that he will suit up. Rishard Mathews saw a season-high eight targets with Walker out of the lineup last week and figures to see a good chunk of the targets in this game.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee has to be pleased with the direction its running game as the calendar flips to October but there are a few areas they need to improve to have success against teams like Houston. The Titans are one of only four teams averaging over 5.0 YPC but have only one rushing touchdown to show for their work. DeMarco Murray has only gotten better each week and has cemented his place atop the depth chart despite the presence of rookie Derrick Henry. Murray is second only to David Johnson among fantasy running backs thanks to his work in the passing game (17-132-2). Playing on the road against the Texans isn’t ideal but there isn’t any reason to bench Murray.

Value Meter:
QB2: Marcus Mariota
RB1: DeMarco Murray
FLEX: Rishard Matthews
TE1: Delanie Walker (low-end if healthy)
Bench: Derrick Henry, Tajae Sharpe

Passing Game Thoughts: Those figuring that Brock Osweiler couldn’t be any worse than the quarterback committee that was used in Houston last season may want to re-evaluate their position. The passing attack has struggled when defenses force Osweiler to beat them through the air and the Titans will attempt to follow the same script in this game. DeAndre Hopkins’ fantasy value has taken a hit with his quarterback’s rocky start but his uncanny ability to make athletic catches in coverage make him the perfect target for a QB struggling to find consistency. Will Fuller added another drop to his total last week and continues to struggle in pressure situations. Despite the drops he continues to see enough involvement to make him a solid flex play most weeks. Braxton Miller (hamstring) has not been able to practice this week and has been ruled out. Jaelen Strong will operate out of the slot for the second straight game but hasn’t been able to capitalize on the opportunity so fantasy owners should steer clear. Ryan Griffin’s 10 target game at TE last week was the result of New England allowing him to get the ball underneath coverage rather than a breakout performance.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller continues to get the touches of an elite fantasy footballer (averaging 28 per game) but has yet to carry the pigskin over the goal line in 74 carries. Head coach Bill O’Brien is taking over play-calling duties this week so perhaps we see more of an emphasis on the pass game? We’ll see. Making matters worse for Miller’s owners in Week 4 is the fact that Tennessee has allowed only one rushing touchdown. Houston hasn’t had a run over 20 yards yet this season and Tennessee has only allowed 13 rushing first downs, good for third fewest in the NFL. Look for the Titans to attack the gaps on early downs to plug the running lanes. Miller is in for a tough outing but his floor remains high due to the aforementioned volume of touches. With Jonathan Grimes (fibula) out, Alfred Blue will handle the reserve duties but won’t get enough touches to be a reliable fantasy option this week.

Value Meter:
QB2: Brock Osweiler
RB1: Lamar Miller
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
FLEX: Will Fuller
Bench: Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong, Ryan Griffin

Texans 23, Titans 13 ^ Top

Panthers at Falcons - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton was sore and there was worry that a turned ankle last week could affect his Week 4 playing status but he hasn’t been slowed in practice so keep him green-lighted. He should be licking his chops to get back on the field for Carolina’s first divisional test of the season against an Atlanta defense that has yielded the most passing touchdowns and fifth most passing yards to quarterbacks to date. The singe of a zero-catch outing from Kelvin Benjamin may be fresh in your minds, but the Falcons defense is far less capable than the guys from Minnesota. Following Benjamin’s goose egg, OC Mike Shula put the blame on himself so expect the offense to place a clear emphasis on getting Benjamin going early in this game. Despite the match up, there isn’t much consistency amongst the other pass catchers not named Greg Olsen.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2


Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) is another week or two away from returning so expect Cameron Artis-Payne to get another start this weekend. He wasn’t spectacular against the Vikings (12 carries for 47 yards) but he did enough to remain the lead fantasy option in this RBBC. If the game remains close Cappy should deliver more RB3-level production this week but I’m not forcing him into any lineup due to his limited touchdown potential. However, those feeling that Matt Ryan will keep up his high level of play may want to consider Fozzy Whittaker as a plug and play option. The Panthers prefer Whittaker in the hurry up offense and Atlanta has given up 28 receptions and two touchdowns to opposing running backs in only three games.

Value Meter:
QB1: Cam Newton
RB3: Cameron Artis-Payne
WR1: Kelvin Benjamin
FLEX: Fozzy Whittaker
TE1: Greg Olsen
Bench: Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn Jr., Mike Tolbert

Passing Game Thoughts: Matty Ice is back but how much of his success can be based on the lackluster defenses he has faced to open the year? We should gain a little more insight into the answer to that question in this ball game but I’d rather find out with him in my lineup unless you have another elite option with a better match up. Like most weeks, Jacob Tamme is a replacement level fantasy tight end going up against the Panthers. I warned of a Julio Jones pitfall last week but I wasn’t expecting a complete dud (1 catch for 8 yards). He’s too good of a player to be ignored in big games that could decide the fate of the division so expect him to pick up where he left off against Carolina in Weeks 14 and 16 last year. In those two games the ‘Bama alum compiled 266 yards on 16 receptions with one touchdown. Ryan did an excellent job at spreading the ball around last week. Though the scheme was effective at moving the team down the field for increased scoring opportunities, game plans like this make it very tough to trust Mohamed Sanu, Justin Hardy or Aldrick Robinson.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Running Game Thoughts: Jake Mathews is a big reason why the Falcons were able to run effectively against the Saints on MNF. If the third-year tackle from Texas A&M continues to be a force in the running game Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will benefit in a big way for fantasy owners with both players seeing weekly starter status. If we are not there already, we are close. I’d still refrain from using Coleman against solid pass defense teams like the Panthers. They typically have solid linebackers, like Luke Kuechly, to negate some of the receiving abilities that Coleman offers fantasy owners. Freeman isn’t going to single handedly win you a fantasy title as long as Coleman is around but he will certainly provide you with borderline RB1 stats in this offense. Atlanta is averaging 136 rushing yards per game in 2016 (up from 100.4 in 2015).

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan
RB2: Devonta Freeman
WR1: Julio Jones
FLEX: Tevin Coleman
TE2: Jacob Tamme
Bench: Mohamed Sanu, Aldrick Robinson, Justin Hardy

Panthers 30, Falcons 28 ^ Top

Broncos at Buccaneers - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay has already allowed six passing plays of 40 or more yards so expect Denver to take a few shots down the field. Demaryius Thomas would be the preferred choice to exploit that match up. Thomas’ stat line last week included a 100-yard performance and a score but it wasn’t as pretty as it may seem because the team leaned heavily on Emmanuel Sanders (13 targets last week). Tight end Virgil Green was unable to make it back to the practice field this week so backups Jeff Heuerman and John Phillips will share the workload on Sunday afternoon. Trevor Siemian has passed the eye test thus far-especially after throwing for four TDs on the road against the Bengals. He has shown plenty of command and toughness for a rookie but remains a fringe fantasy asset as a match up based starter.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson was bottle-necked for the first time in 2016 last week. His 37 yards on 14 carries crushed fantasy owners but any thought of Devontae Booker taking over was erased with the youngster receiving a paltry five touches. The rookie fourth rounder may eventually carve out a more substantial role in this offense but remains a bench warmer this week. Anderson’s outlook this week is much brighter than it was a week ago as the team is set to face the seventh friendliest defense to running backs. Look for Anderson to be fed the ball throughout this game as the team looks to get their running game going.

Value Meter:
QB2: Trevor Siemian
RB1: C.J. Anderson
WR1: Emmanuel Sanders
WR2: Demaryius Thomas
Bench: Devontae Booker, Virgil Green, Kapri Bibbs, John Phillips, Jeff Heuerman

Passing Game Thoughts: The Broncos continued to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks last week. Denver’s defense has now allowed an average of 178.3 passing yards per game while producing 21 hurries. Jameis Winston will face the fury this weekend. He is coming off back-to-back games with 50 passing attempts but shouldn’t come close to that amount in Week 4. Mike Evans has been on the receiving end of 37 of Winston’s passes and has a three game touchdown streak coming into this week’s action. The combination of Winston and Evans are certainly a formidable foe for the defense and I wouldn’t dare sit the guy who has posted the sixth most receiving yards in the league until NFL defenses figure out a way to stop him. Adam Humphries has benefited from the pass happy ways of the Bucs offense by hauling in 9-of-12 passes for his first career 100-yard performance. I wouldn’t want to rely on him in this match up but there is a chance that he steps up if Denver goes all out to stop Evans. Cameron Brate takes over as the team’s full time TE atop the depth chart following the release of Austin Sefarian Jenkins (DUI). Brate could have sneaky value in deep leagues but doesn’t figure to be a consistent impact player in this passing attack.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: Charles Sims (13-55-1, 6-69) played well in his first start of the season. Denver’s defense has been so stringy in the passing game that teams have had to turn to the running game to avoid the loss of yards and potential turnovers spawned by the pass rush. As a result, the Broncos defense has given up the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. If Sims wants to push Doug Martin for playing time when he returns he will need to have a strong performance in this game. Sims saw 76 percent (compared to Jacquizz Rodgers’ 26 percent) of the offensive snaps as the lead back and that number could actually go up so deploy him as a RB2 this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jameis Winston
RB2: Charles Sims
WR1: Mike Evans
FLEX: Adam Humphries (deep leagues only)
Bench: Cameron Brate, Vincent Jackson

Prediction: Broncos 24, Buccaneers 21 ^ Top

Bills @ Patriots - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Because the NFL makes no sense, the Bills, coming off what looked to be a season crippling loss to the Jets, absolutely steamrolled the Cardinals last week in a game they not only led wire to wire, but was never in doubt. Operating without Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods dominated targets (8) while the Bills threw as little as possible in a successful effort to allow the running game to control the offense. Tyrod Taylor is averaging a paltry 175.7 passing yards per game, but at 37.3 rushing yards per game, he always has that QB1 potential. The problem, it seems, is that it’s very difficult to predict when Taylor will show up with a big performance, making him a very risky weekly option. With Watkins unlikely to go again, there is no one in this passing offense I’d feel comfortable starting.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy is averaging a hair under twenty touches per game and is now more than ever the focal point of the Bills’ offense. Last week, Shady averaged 6.5 yards per carry and scored twice against what is supposed to be a strong Cardinals run defense. The Patriots contained Lamar Miller last week, but McCoy is a more talented back and should see volume similar to that of Miller. Even in a bad matchup based on projected game script, the Patriots allow 4.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers and McCoy will be asked to do all he can in an offense devoid of weapons.

Value Meter:
QB2: Tyrod Taylor (mid-range)
RB1: LeSean McCoy (low end)
Bench: Charles Clay (no catches last week), Robert Woods

Passing Game Thoughts: In the final game before Tom Brady returns, the Patriots are simply looking to get by at the quarterback position. Both Jimmy Garoppolo (sprained AC joint in right shoulder) and Jacoby Brissett (sprained thumb) are going to do all they can to get ready for Sunday’s game. My guess is they are both active and Garoppolo starts. How effective he will be at less than 100% remains to be seen, but even 70% of Garoppolo might be worth consideration. I wouldn’t worry too much about him repeating Carson Palmer’s four interception performance last week against these Bills. Remember, the Bills got lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick two weeks ago. A somewhat healthy Garoppolo would be a boon for Julian Edelman’s (4-38 last week) value as well. The bigger question for this week is to what extent Rob Gronkowski plays. Gronk was active last week for the first time all season, but played just 14 snaps and didn’t catch a pass in a game that was never competitive. I worry that the Patriots may pull ahead early in this one as well, but with an extra ten days to rest up, I expect Gronk to be far more involved between the twenties. I know last week’s goose egg has left many with a sour taste in their mouths, but the fact remains, if Gronk plays, you are starting him.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Running Game Thoughts: Unsurprisingly, the Patriots leaned heavily on LeGarrette Blount last week (24-105-2). Blount is averaging a respectable four yards per carry and has more touchdowns (four) than games played (three). Look for more of the same this week. Blount’s value will dip once Brady comes back, but for at least one more week, Blount is a virtual lock for 20-plus carries. He is a bruiser that wears defenders down and looks to run through people. The Bills have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers, but Blount can do plenty of damage at 3.4 yards per carry given the volume he should receive.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jimmy Garoppolo (low end)
RB2: LeGarrette Blount (mid-range)
WR2: Julian Edelman (assuming Garoppolo starts)
TE1: Rob Gronkowski (high end)
Bench: James White, Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan

Prediction: Patriots 26, Bills 16 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Jets - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Through three weeks, Russell Wilson is not even a top 25 fantasy quarterback. He has not looked good either. That may be due in large part to his high ankle sprain and now a MCL sprain, but the fact remains that Russell Wilson is nowhere near the circle of trust. His rushing stats are down (33 yards through three games) and he only has two passing touchdowns. His top target Doug Baldwin bounced back from a down Week 2 to put up a monster Week 3 (8-164-1) and even if the Seahawks were forced to start Trevone Boykin, Baldwin would not suffer much. It won’t come to that as Wilson refuses to miss a game. He’s going to play. The main takeaway from last week’s game is the return of Jimmy Graham. His offensive involvement has increased each week of the season. He played on 67% of the snaps last week and saw nine targets, hauling in six of them for an even 100 yards and a score. The Jets are not the best matchup, but Graham is locked in as a steady TE1 with a virtually limitless ceiling.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Running Game Thoughts: After three weeks, we finally have some clarity on the running back situation. It will be the Christine Michael show for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, I do think when Thomas Rawls comes back he retakes this job, but that won’t be until at least November (as it turns out his shin contusion was actually a hairline fracture of his fibula). Taking full advantage of the opportunity, Michael is averaging 5.1 yards per carry in Rawls’ absence. He’s even chipped in with a couple of receptions in each game this season. This week will be his toughest test of the season as he faces the perennially strong Jets run defense, currently ranked third in yards per carry allowed at 3.3. The good news is Michael should see around 20 carries and possibly even more if Wilson is limited.

Value Meter:
QB2: Russell Wilson (high end)
RB2: Christine Michael (normally an RB1, but Jets defense knocks him down a peg)
WR2: Doug Baldwin (high end, Jets have been vulnerable against the pass)
TE1: Jimmy Graham (low end)
Bench: Tyler Lockett, Thomas Rawls (fractured fibula)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week, a man came out of hiding. It was a man we hadn’t seen in a long time. That man’s name is Ryan Pickspatrick. It had been a long time since Ryan Fitzpatrick morphed into his alter ego, but his bad side was on full display in 2016’s worst performance by a quarterback. Although he was victimized by a couple tip drills, Fitzpatrick threw the ball to the wrong team a whopping six times last week. Unsurprisingly, his performance rendered all three of his fantasy relevant receivers essentially useless. Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Quincy Enunwa saw a combined 27 targets. They caught just eight of them and Decker’s streak of 80 yards or a touchdown ended at 18 games. If there is any positive takeaway, it’s that Marshall played in all but two if the Jets offensive snaps. If he was limited by his knee injury, hopefully back to back full days of practice this week put those concerns to rest going forward. Given the track record of this entire offense, I’m willing to give everyone a mulligan due to Fitzpatrick’s anomalous performance. A home date with the Seahawks isn’t necessarily the cure, but Seattle is a different team on the road. It certainly doesn’t help the cause that the Jets will likely be without Decker (shoulder – severity unknown), but the Jets should bounce back in this one simply because it’s impossible to be worse. No Decker gives Enunwa a bump.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte had his worst game of the season (15-65) last week, also due in large part to his quarterback. Fitzpatrick puts the Jets in a hole early, which forced them to abandon the run game and it’s also exceedingly difficult to produce offensively in any capacity when your team never has the ball. There is no reason to express concern over Forte. He is averaging a respectable 3.9 yards per carry on the season, but as we know, he makes his money on volume. This week’s game should be much more competitive, allowing Forte to remain involved in the ground throughout. The Seahawks gave up 103 yards and two scores on the ground to Carlos Hyde last week. At this point in his career Forte is not the runner Hyde is, but Hyde’s performance shows that the Seahawks can be beaten. Forte is savvy enough to produce as long as the score doesn’t take him out of the game. No need to worry here.

Value Meter:
QB2: Ryan Fitzpatrick (low end)
RB2: Matt Forte (high end)
WR3: Brandon Marshall (high end)
WR3: Quincy Enunwa (mid-range)
Bench: Bilal Powell, Eric Decker (shoulder)

Prediction: Jets 24, Seahawks 22 ^ Top

Browns @ Redskins - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns, down two quarterbacks already, have resorted to tomfoolery to score points. And it’s working! Cody Kessler is nothing more than a warm body under center, but he really should be 1-0 in his career as a starter. Hue Jackson is like Inspector Gadget on the sidelines and before last week’s game, apparently yelled, “Go Go Gadget Pryor.” Terrelle Pryor was used as a quarterback, pseudo-running back taking wildcat snaps, and as a receiver. Pryor (8-144 in the air, 4-21-1 on the ground, and 3/5 for 35 yards passing) did it all. Jackson’s primary objective was clearly to get the ball in Pryor’s hands however possible. He was used heavily all over the field and was the main red zone option. Despite the presumed faceoff with Josh Norman this week, Pryor is a must start as few players have a higher touchdown probability. His usage out of the backfield and as a passer raises his floor considerably.

Note: As you all know by now, Josh Gordon has entered himself into rehab and will not be rejoining the Browns next week. Hopefully he can make a full recovery and get himself back in the NFL, but for now – for fantasy purposes – he can be safely dropped.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

Running Game Thoughts: Both Isaiah Crowell (10-79) and Duke Johnson (10-69) had very productive days on the ground last week. Somehow, Johnson caught five balls but only managed twelve yards. His involvement in the passing game keeps his floor high, but he’s very unlikely to score on a weekly basis given that he’s behind Crowell, Terrelle Pryor the receiver, and Terrelle Pryor the wildcat quarterback in the red zone. The Redskins allowed DeAngelo Williams to rush for 143 yards in Week 1, the Cowboys backfield led by Ezekiel Elliott to rush for over 100 yards in Week 2, and the combination of Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa to rush for 120 yards in Week 3. Look for the Browns backfield duo to continue that trend this week.

Value Meter:
WR2: Terrelle Pryor (jack of all trades has an extremely high floor)
RB2: Isaiah Crowell (low end)
RB3: Duke Johnson (gets a bump in PPR)
Bench: Gary Barnidge

Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins had his best game of the young season last week, completing 60 percent of his passes for 296 yards, 2 touchdowns, and most importantly, no turnovers. He outplayed Eli Manning and is the reason his team won. He did so by feeding his top receiver, DeSean Jackson, with eight targets, connecting on five for 96 yards and a touchdown. Everybody got to eat in this one as Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed all saw seven targets and topped 50 yards. Reed’s numbers have appeared pedestrian, but he’s actually been on par with what he’s done last year - he just hasn’t scored. Touchdowns are fluky and they will come… perhaps this week. The Browns just let Ryan Tannehill throw for over 300 yards and gave up big games Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and DeVante Parker. This is a week that DJax, Reed, and Crowder could all have strong games.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Jones saw his biggest workload last week with 17 carries but only managed 65 yards. He remains inefficient and ineffective. Nevertheless, he’s not going anywhere as the Redskins have even worse options behind him and Chris Thompson is more receiver than running back. The Redskins rank third in pass-run percentage (68%-32%) capping Jones’ ceiling at an RB2 level. The Browns are allowing 109.3 rushing yards per game, but I don’t think the Redskins are capable of exploiting it.

Value Meter:
QB1: Kirk Cousins (low end)
WR3: DeSean Jackson (high end)
TE1: Jordan Reed (high end)
FLEX: Jamison Crowder, Matt Jones
Bench: Chris Thompson, Pierre Garcon

Prediction: Redskins 26, Browns 19 ^ Top

Rams @ Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It took them two games, but eventually the Rams offense was going to score a touchdown. They finally got it done in Week 3, including two passing scores from Case Keenum against the Buccaneers. The overall production from this Los Angeles passing game is still quite mediocre and we’re still waiting for a receiver to break out. The two best options seem to be Tavon Austin (30) and Kenny Britt (22) who are the only LA wide receivers who have been targeted more than eight times through the first three weeks of the season. In reality, Austin is the only player in the fantasy discussion for deep PPR leagues as a flex option. This passing game will be in for another tough matchup this week as they go up against an Arizona secondary that is one of the most talented in the league. Austin will likely see a lot of attention from Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson who have both been playing very well this season and have the speed and agility to keep up with his shiftiness. Don’t expect much this week from the Rams passing game. In fact, the Cardinals defense is a premiere play here in Week 4.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners of Todd Gurley were relieved to see their star running back show up in Week 3. The back rushed for a season-high 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns, his first of the year. Overall, the concern is still there that this Los Angeles offense is just not good enough to keep up with the best offenses in the league. That could lead to some multiple score losses, as many are predicting here in Week 4. If the Rams do fall behind early another weak game from Gurley isn’t out of the question. With limited usage in the passing game, Gurley is a player who doesn’t typically succeed when his team is forced into a negative game script. It’d be extremely difficult to imagine a scenario where a fantasy owner would be sitting Gurley this early in the season, but understand that this could be a very tough game for Gurley against an Arizona defense that has been excellent against the run at home so far this year.

Value Meter:
RB1: Todd Gurley (low end)
FLEX:Tavon Austin
Bench: Case Keenum, Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Lance Kendricks

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer threw a whopping four interceptions with no touchdowns in Week 3, barely cracking positive points for his fantasy owners. It’s always tough to forget a game like the one Palmer had in Week 3, but fantasy football is all about looking toward the future and not dwelling on the past. The Rams defense was exploited for 405 yards and three touchdowns by Jameis Winston last week and this seems to be the kind of game that Palmer will bounce back in, leading to huge potential from each of his top three targets, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. All three were involved in the passing game in Week 3, with Fitzgerald (12 targets) receiving the most attention. The veteran is an excellent play in this matchup, while Floyd and Brown could slot in as high upside flex options for those in need.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

Running Game Thoughts: There have been quite a few disappointments from the first round of fantasy drafts so far this season, but one of the players who has lived up to expectations has been Arizona running back David Johnson. Johnson’s usage in the passing game (10-169) has helped to make him a stud fantasy player even in weeks where his team is being blown out – something that many other top backs struggle to do. Johnson has gone well over 100 total yards in each of his three games, including three total touchdowns, and now faces a struggling Los Angeles team that has already conceded four touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. With the Cardinals passing game struggling this past week, it would not be surprising to see head coach Bruce Arians lean on his young running back, especially late in the game if they get out to a lead. Johnson is one of the top plays in all of fantasy football this week and should be in every lineup.

Value Meter:
QB1: Carson Palmer
RB1: David Johnson
WR1: Larry Fitzgerald (low-end)
FLEX: Michael Floyd, John Brown
Bench: Chris Johnson, Jaron Brown, Darren Fells

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 17 ^ Top

Cowboys @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott threw his first NFL passing touchdown this past week as he connected with star wide receiver Dez Bryant. That budding duo appeared to be well on its way to producing nice fantasy numbers, but a hairline fracture to Bryant’s knee now puts the receiver’s Week 4 in jeopardy. In fact, sources within the Cowboys organization have said that the team is preparing to play without Bryant for Sunday’s game as well as multiple games going forward. This is a brutal hit to the fantasy value of the young quarterback, but it does leave open new opportunities for other receivers in the Cowboys offense, namely Terrance Williams. Williams did not fare well in 2015 when Bryant went down, but the quarterback situation was awful in Dallas. Prescott appears to have much better control, but the overall prospects don’t look particularly good. One thing that doesn’t change, is Prescott’s ability to run. He’s already scored twice on runs and appears to be a threat to do so at any time. Cole Beasley and Jason Witten remain interesting PPR and daily options but their lack of presence in the red zone has made them tough to trust in standard formats.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has continued to look better every single week and his fantasy owners have to be extremely pleased after what they saw in Week 3 when he rushed for 140 yards on 30 carries. Elliott has already touched the ball 76 times this season – an astonishing number for a rookie back at this day in age, but the Cowboys appear to be set on letting the offense go through their talented young runner. Elliott remains an RB1 against almost any opponent right now due to his high usage, but he’s a particularly good option against a 49ers defense that has conceded 264 rushing yards to mediocre backfields in Carolina and Seattle over the past two weeks. With Dallas and San Francisco both likely to be playing the field position game, look for Elliott to touch the ball in excess of 25 times again this week, making him a rock solid RB1.

Value Meter:
QB2: Dak Prescott
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott
FLEX: Cole Beasley (PPR)
TE1: Jason Witten (low-end, PPR)
Bench: Alfred Morris, Lance Dunbar, Terrance Williams

Passing Game Thoughts: There aren’t many passing games in the NFL that are less exciting than the one in San Francisco right now. Blaine Gabbert, while efficient at times, just does not seem to be capable of putting up big fantasy points. It’s true that the 49ers have played against some difficult defenses to start the season (LAR, CAR, SEA), but it would be nice for someone to have stepped up and given fantasy owners something to be excited about as the 49ers host a much less intimidating Dallas defense in Week 4. The Cowboys have already conceded six touchdown passes and two 300-yard days to opposing quarterbacks while forcing just two interceptions, but don’t look for Gabbert to become a QB1 in this matchup. He’s an acceptable bye week fill-in for those in desperate need, but that’s about it. Meanwhile the team’s top-scoring fantasy receiver, tight end Vance McDonald, has caught just five passes this season (two for touchdowns) and is listed as questionable with a hip injury. Torrey Smith and Jeremy Kerley are the team’s top two options at wide receiver, but neither player has done much with the opportunities they’ve been given, so it’d be extremely difficult to consider either of them an option for fantasy purposes at this time.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

Running Game Thoughts: If the 49ers are going to win this game, it’s likely going to have to come by riding on the back of Carlos Hyde. Hyde has sandwiched an awful game in Week 2 with two excellent performances in Weeks 1 and 2, but most intriguing is his continued usage even in games where the 49ers fall behind early. The 49ers were getting absolutely walloped by the Seahawks in Week 3, but Hyde still managed to get 21 carries, which he took for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Dez Bryant likely out, the Cowboys are unlikely to light up the scoreboard which should lead to a healthy day of carries for Hyde. He remains a very minimal part of the San Francisco passing game so his value is a bit weakened in PPR formats, but Hyde is still a rock solid RB2.

Value Meter:
RB2: Carlos Hyde
Bench: Blaine Gabbert, Shaun Draughn, Torrey Smith, Jeremy Kerley, Vance McDonald

Prediction: Dallas 20, 49ers 17 ^ Top

Saints @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Another week, another dominant fantasy day for Drew Brees who is currently the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in standard scoring formats. Brees has made a career of putting up ridiculous numbers when the Saints play at home while struggling at times to even crack QB1 numbers on the road. That may be the case again for Brees as he and the Saints head to San Diego to face the Chargers. The Chargers haven’t been good against the pass this season, but they haven’t played against a dynamic offense like the Saints. Wide receiver Willie Snead (toe) is still questionable to play this Sunday after missing this past Monday night’s game. That should have led to more production from Brandin Cooks, but he had one of the worst games of his career, catching just two passes for 13 yards in the loss to Atlanta. Cooks was still targeted eight times, so don’t put him on your bench yet. Rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas continues to be involved in the offense and makes for an interesting flex play in PPR formats this week. Coby Fleener is finally back in the TE1 conversation as his high number of targets finally translated into fantasy success in Week 3 when he caught seven passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. The New Orleans offense is one of the best in football and the only real concern here is Brees’ history on the road. Still, this is a good enough matchup that it’s going to be tough to bench any Saints.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Running Game Thoughts: It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Mark Ingram, but the bruising tailback finally got into the end zone this past week, surprisingly via the pass. Ingram’s usage in the passing game remains fairly high for a back of his stature even as the team continues to mix in Travaris Cadet in passing situations. Ingrma has now caught 10 passes on the season. His rushing numbers haven’t been great so far, but he hasn’t been getting his usual workload either. San Diego hasn’t given up a 100-yard rusher, but they have been particularly giving to opposing running backs in the passing game as they’ve already conceded 27 receptions to the position, second-most in the league. Ingram is a mid-level RB1 in this matchup with high upside.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees
RB1: Mark Ingram
WR1: Brandin Cooks (low-end)
TE1: Coby Fleener
FLEX: Michael Thomas
Bench: Travaris Cadet, Brandon Coleman

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s not often that a quarterback throws for 300-plus yards and doesn’t get into the end zone, but that’s what happened to Philip Rivers in Week 3. Still, there’s a lot to be excited about for the San Diego passing game in this week’s matchup. Rivers himself has been absolutely tearing up the field. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has made the likes of Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams into viable fantasy options. The New Orleans defense has been absolutely awful and there’s little reason to believe that it won’t continue this week against Rivers and the Chargers. One intriguing option who might not be on fantasy radars at the moment is rookie tight end Hunter Henry, who is likely to fill in again this week for the injured Antonio Gates. Henry caught five passes for 72 yards in Week 3 and should see enough targets come his way to be a low-end TE1 against the Saints.

SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Running Game Thoughts: One of the most pleasant surprises of the young 2016 season, second-year running back Melvin Gordon has truly been excellent for fantasy owners. He was terrible from a yards per carry standpoint against the Colts in Week 3, but he added some decent receiving numbers and a rushing touchdown to save his fantasy day. Gordon now gets another great matchup against the Saints who have conceded the most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. Opposing teams’ running backs have averaged over 200 total yards per game and scored seven total touchdowns against the Saints. Gordon is an excellent bet to put up high-end RB1 numbers and could get into the end zone multiple times in this contest. Deploy him in your lineups with confidence.

Value Meter:
QB1: Philip Rivers
RB1: Melvin Gordon
WR2: Travis Benjamin
TE1: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Tyrell Williams
Bench: Dontrelle Inman

Prediction: Chargers 30, Saints 27 ^ Top