Passing
Game Thoughts: Looking to tie Charles Haley as the only
five-time Super Bowl champion in NFL history, New England’s
Tom Brady will be looking to cap off what has been another incredible
season in Super Bowl LI. Despite being without his top target
and one of the best tight ends, Brady has continued to be extremely
efficient down the stretch, including throwing for an individual
post-season career passing record 384 yards against the Steelers
in the AFC Championship game. Brady continues to utilize a short
passing game and high efficiency, even completing passes to an
impressive nine different receivers against Pittsburgh, including
two different 100-yard receivers with Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman.
Atlanta will certainly need to gameplan to slow down Edelman out
of the slot as he has been scorching hot as of late, catching
eight passes in each of his past three games for a total of 406
yards and a pair of touchdowns. His chemistry with Brady has allowed
the Patriots to have an extremely reliable underneath option which
has allowed Hogan to make plays over the top.
Hogan has 275 yards and two touchdowns in just two playoff games
and much of that has been due to the opposing defenses simply
getting overwhelmed with the Patriots having multiple options.
If the Falcons are able to contain Edelman without completely
selling out to stop him, they should be able to at least cause
Brady some problems. The Texans pressured Brady early in their
Divisional Round contest which led to some mistakes and with the
NFL’s regular season sack leader (Vic Beasley) on the opposite
side of the field, there’s a real chance that Atlanta could
get to Brady a few times in this contest.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: A team winning by multiple scores typically
means that their top running back is going to be fairly productive
on the ground, especially late in the contest when they’re
feeding him the ball to run out the clock. That gameplan has allowed
LeGarrette Blount to be one of the best fantasy running backs
this season, but it oddly hasn’t exactly translated so far
in the playoffs. He scored in the AFC Championship game saving
what would have otherwise been another discouraging stat line,
but Blount has now failed to surpass even 55 rushing yards in
five straight contests. His incredible touchdown efficiency still
makes him one of the most likely players in the league to score
on a week to week basis, but the “big game” potential
isn’t quite as high as some fantasy owners might think.
Now that Dion Lewis is healthy and back on the field, Blount has
been used a bit more sparingly down the stretch, particularly
on passing downs.
Lewis, on the other hand, has touched the ball an average of
nearly 15 times per game on offense over the Patriots’ past
five games, both as a runner and as a receiver. Lewis is also
working as the team’s primary kickoff returner where he
scored in the Divisional Round against the Texans. The high-powered
Atlanta offense could very well change the gameflow in this contest,
leading to the Patriots needing to pass more often than usual,
which should lead to plenty of playing time for Lewis and even
added snaps for James White if you’re looking for a sleeper.
Blount remains the team’s most consistent option due to
his goal line usage, but this is a true committee situation going
into the Super Bowl.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A strong candidate to win the Associated
Press NFL Most Valuable Player award, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan
hasn’t slowed down whatsoever in the playoffs. Critics have
blamed Ryan for folding in the playoffs in the past, but that
has certainly not been the case this season as he has now thrown
for a whopping seven touchdowns without an interception in the
Falcons’ two post-season games. Of course, much of that
has come by feeding the ball to his top receiver, Julio Jones,
whose 15 receptions for 247 yards and three touchdowns just another
incredible example of what he’s capable of. Fellow wide
receiver Mohamed Sanu has also been quietly productive down the
stretch as he’s now scored in each of the Falcons’
past three games, including both post-season contests. While Jones
and Sanu have been the biggest stars in the passing game, the
Falcons have been highly effective because Matt Ryan has been
able to spread the ball to a number of receivers, even including
his running backs, which has really made it difficult for defenses
to simply overload coverage toward Jones.
While the story will be “Brady vs. Ryan,” the most
important matchup of this entire Super Bowl might be the one that
plays out between Jones and Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler.
Butler has been one of the league’s best defensive backs
all season and he did a great job in coverage against Antonio
Brown in the AFC Championship game, so if he’s able to at
least slow down Jones in coverage, that would allow the Patriots
to bring pressure from some unique angles and potentially throw
off the rhythm of the Atlanta offense. If Butler struggles, however,
the Patriots may need to slide coverage Jones’ way, which
could leave other receivers open underneath or even over the top
with the big play ability of players like Taylor Gabriel.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons’ passing game is certainly
the focal point of the media, but the reality is that there is
not a more balanced offense in the league this season than the
one we’re seeing in Atlanta. The duo of Devonta Freeman
and Tevin Coleman rushed for nearly 1,600 combined yards in the
regular season while adding an additional 883 as pass catchers.
That dominance has continued in the playoffs as the duo has combined
for an impressive 352 total yards and four total touchdowns in
just two games. While it’s true that Green Bay’s defense
was a bit depleted due to injuries and the Seahawks were without
Earl Thomas, there’s no question that Atlanta’s offense,
coached by Kyle Shanahan will be looking to get the ball into
the hands of their talented tailbacks in his final game as a member
of the Falcons coaching staff. Shanahan’s top-ranked regular
season scoring offense will be tested against the league’s
top-ranked regular season scoring defense in this contest, but
the personnel matchup seems to favor Atlanta. Look for somewhere
between 15-20 touches for Freeman with another dozen or so from
Coleman.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sunday will be the last professional game
of Tom Brady’s career in his 30s. The man is old. Yet somehow,
here he is playing in his seventh Super Bowl. Win or lose, he’s
the greatest of all time. Brady will be two weeks removed from
a near perfect performance in the AFC Championship game where
he lit up the Steelers for 384 yards, three touchdowns, and no
interceptions. His play almost makes you forget he’s doing
this all without Rob Gronkowski. Atlanta’s defense has been
nothing short of terrible this season and although they have played
better in the postseason, they haven’t faced Tom Brady and
Bill Belichick with two weeks to prepare. This should be a high
scoring affair, which gives Chris Hogan a shot at being the hero
once again (9-180-2 against Pitt). The Falcons’ pass rush
has been performing better and it’s likely their only shot
at slowing down Brady. If they can’t get to Brady, then
the likes of Hogan, Julian Edelman, and Martellus Bennett should
be open all evening with the Falcons operating without a true
shutdown corner and without great coverage linebackers. Brady
has a 13-4 touchdown-interception ratio in Super Bowls. Look for
that to be even better after he wins his historic fifth title
this Sunday.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis is probably the most talented
member of this backfield, but don’t think Bill Belichick
cares about that. In the AFC Championship game, Lewis played on
just 23% of the offensive snaps, while James White and LeGarrette
Blount saw 39% and 41% respectively. With that game never really
close, Blount was tasked with running out the game in the 4th
quarter. That is unlikely to be the case this week, but even so,
it’s impossible to predict what the Patriots will do with
Lewis and White. My guess is White plays the greater number of
snaps due to his proficiency in pass blocking as of late. Blount
remains the best bet for a touchdown and I’d say he’s
likely to score in a game where the Patriots should see a fair
amount of red zone opportunities. The Falcons defense allowed
the most yards after contact in the league and had the second
most missed tackles. Blount is not an easy man to bring down for
even the best tacklers. The stars may be aligning for a big Blount
day to cap off the Patriots’ season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For a guy rather unfairly depicted as not
being able to win in the playoffs, Matt Ryan has been mighty impressive
this postseason, playing even better in the playoffs than he did
in his 38-touchdown, 7-interception regular season. And he’s
managed to step his game up with a hobbled Julio Jones. Ryan has
thrown for 730 yards and seven touchdowns in his two playoff games
this year without throwing an interception. He’s even added
a rushing touchdown for good measure. With all that being said,
he’s still just the second best QB in this game. He is facing
a Patriots defense that finished the season number one in scoring
defense, but they also did so against some very weak opposing
quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger was by far the best QB they had
seen since the midpoint of the regular season and Matt Ryan, with
the way he’s been playing, is a huge step up. Belichick
will game plan to erase Julio Jones, likely by having Malcolm
Butler shadow him on the outside with a safety double teaming
him almost every play. It’s exactly what he did to Antonio
Brown two weeks ago. Ryan has proven very capable of involving
the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, and Justin Hardy when
he has to, but his main man has always been Julio. Ryan will need
to find ways to get him the ball.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: In what will surely be a massive headache
for fantasy owners in the 2017 season, the Falcons possess two
quality starters at running back and (smartly) refuse to feature
either one of them. It’s a nightmare for fantasy, but brilliant
strategy in reality. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have both
proven capable of handling full workloads. They are both excellent
pass catchers. They are both useful at the goal line. Coleman
is bigger and has been better running the football, but that is
more praise for Coleman than a knock on Freeman. The Falcons have
been rotating their backs all season and there is no reason they
should change anything. Not now. Not next year. Coleman averaged
4.4 yards per carry this season. Freeman averaged 4.8 yards per
carry this season. Both backs will be useful, but the touchdowns
are unpredictable and which back has the better game is equally
unpredictable. With the Patriots keying in on stopping Julio Jones,
Matt Ryan could very well look to his backs on many a passing
play. I like both guys to be productive, but obviously neither
will reach his true ceiling with the other in play.
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