Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson may not have lived up to
being a consensus top five fantasy quarterback prior to 2016 but
he’s kept things together and is playing better now than
he was earlier in the year. Last week’s win against the
Lions gives him an impressive 8-3 record in the post season and
he takes on a defense that has been more bad than good throughout
the 2016 regular season. The Seahawks’ signal caller falls
in the rankings due to his lower ceiling than most playoff quarterbacks.
Over the past eight games, Wilson has only notched one game with
over 25 fantasy points but will be facing the league’s most
friendly fantasy defense to opposing QBs. That makes him a solid
value play for anyone looking to set a weekly lineup. That same
line of thought trickles down to Doug Baldwin’s fantasy
prospects. Baldwin finished the regular season ranked 19th in
targets amongst all NFL receivers on an offense that ranked only
18th in passing attempts. He’s coming off a ridiculous second
half performance a week ago and should be brimming with confidence
as he prepares to go up against Atlanta’s secondary. The
toughest match up for the Falcons will be TE Jimmy Graham. He’s
been rather quiet over the past month but he has a familiarity
with Atlanta from his days playing in New Orleans and the team
will need more from the passing game to keep up with one of the
league’s best offenses. Jermaine Kearse should get two or
three chances to make huge plays but Paul Richardson might offer
fantasy owners a better bargain basement option in salary cap
formats. The former second round pick out of the University of
Colorado has caught eleven passes in his last three outings with
touchdowns in two of them. Atlanta allowed 109 receptions and
six receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. That doesn’t
translate too much in Thomas Rawls’ game but it would help
Richardson or C.J. Prosise (shoulder) in the short passing game.
Head Coach Pete Carroll isn’t tipping his hand as to whether
Prosise will play so fantasy owners will need to check in on Saturday
for an update on his status prior to kickoff.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: The running style of Rawls was made for
play off football. He may not have finished the year on a high
note but he sure did make an impact last weekend. He rekindled
Marshawn Lynch’s spirit to rush 27 times for 161 yards and
a score. Atlanta has been below average against the run and may
struggle to keep a violent running back like Rawls at bay for
four quarters on Saturday. Seattle would love nothing more than
to give their tank another 20-plus carries in a “move the
chains” type of game plan that keeps the Atlanta offense
on the sidelines. As I noted above, there is a chance that Prosise
will be available for this game. The rookie has flashed serious
game breaking potential (akin to Tevin Coleman below) when given
more opportunity and would be in the RB2 mix if cleared to play.
If Prosise misses this game then Alex Collins will be the backup
to Rawls. He doesn’t get many touches when the rest of the
backfield is healthy and can’t be trusted as a fantasy option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This is a classic offense versus defense
match up. Matt Ryan’s strong Week 17 propelled him into
the top spot for QB-rating among regular starting quarterbacks
during the regular season but he hasn’t had much success
in the playoffs. His only win did come against Seattle back in
2012. In that win, he didn’t exactly light things up numbers
wise throwing for only 250 yards and three interceptions. Seattle
ranks in the top ten against the pass and will make it their mission
to contain Julio Jones. Jones has been nursing a foot/toe injury
for most of the year but he heads into this contest with a full
week of rest and treatment. That’s good because he will
be playing in his first career playoff game and Matt Ryan needs
him to live up to superstar expectations. Taylor Gabriel (foot)
returned to practice during the team’s playoff bye and will
give Matt Ryan another big play threat to combat the Seattle-D.
He offers more upside than Mohamed Sanu but is best deployed in
potential shootouts. Seattle has been feverish at getting to the
quarterbacks this year; tied with Denver for third most during
the regular season with 42 sacks. If the offensive line plays
at a high level and the backfield chips in with pass protection
and check downs Matt Ryan should only need to play a smart football
game to survive and advance.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The core of the entire offense has been
the robust play from the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin
Coleman. These two runners have given opposing defensive coordinator’s
headaches when trying to figure out how to stop multiple attacks
from the Falcons’ skilled players. Freeman defending his
rushing title aptly by finishing the regular season 9th in rushing
yards while splitting carries all year. He’s received no
fewer than 17 touches over the Falcons’ last three games
and is running behind a quality offensive line for the highest
scoring team in the league. Freeman should be considered the least
likely to bust during the playoffs and should be a low end RB1
with fewer fantasy options to choose from this weekend. Coleman
does NOT have a touchdown in only five of his 13 games played
this year. He may not look like Jerome Bettis but he seems to
only need about five touches a game to find pay dirt. He’s
been excellent in his current role and that means he’s a
RB2/Flex consideration for the Divisional Round.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Savage has now cleared through the concussion
protocol, but is expected to serve as the backup against the Patriots
this week. Savage had replaced the struggling Brock Osweiler towards
the end of the regular season, but Osweiler did enough to beat
the Raiders in Houston last week and will thus hold onto the starting
job. Osweiler was not asked to do too much, throwing for 168 yards
and a touchdown in a game where Oakland was never really a threat.
The Texans’ offense has struggled on the road, where they
will be this week, averaging just 14.8 points per game, which
is the second worst total in the league. The Patriots allowed
the least amount of points in the NFL this season (250) and haven’t
allowed more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 10. Osweiler
threw for just 196 yards in a 27-0 loss when these teams met early
in the regular season. Osweiler has negated star wide receiver
DeAndre Hopkins this season with his struggles throwing outside
the numbers, and has only shown well when throwing to tight ends
Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Hopkins was on the receiving
end of Osweiler’s lone touchdown pass last week however,
but his late season uptick came with Tom Savage under center so
don’t expect Hopkins to shine in Foxboro, unless Osweiler
receives a quick hook. That just could happen if he shows any
signs at all of struggling early.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller saw heavy volume last week
but gained only 73 yards on his 31 carries. He added a touchdown
from four yards out, but Miller did not catch a pass in the game.
Predictably, the Texans tried to run the ball down the throats
of an opponent starting a rookie quarterback who served no legitimate
threat of posting big numbers. This week no one should expect
Miller to come close to 31 carries, but he should see more usage
in the passing game as the Texans assumedly play catch up and
with New England allowing 6.4 receptions per game to opposing
running backs. The Patriots wer the fourth ranked run defense
during the regular season, allowing only 88.6 yards per game and
an NFL low six rushing touchdowns on the season. Some of that
had to do with teams turning to the passing game to keep up with
the Patriots high scoring offense, but make no mistake about it,
New England has a solid front seven and will make the effort to
take Miller out of the Texans’ game plan. It’s hard
to imagine Bill Belichick being worried about Brock Osweiler picking
his defense apart.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady has thrown at least three touchdown
passes in three of his past four games, but even in those games
he has looked a little more mortal since Rob Gronkowski was lost
for the season. He will now face the league’s second ranked
pass defense. Houston allowed only 201.6 passing yards per game
to opposing passers with no 300-yard passing games on the season.
With that said, this is Tom Brady, and a multiple touchdown game
against any defense should be expected. Julian Edelman struggled
earlier in the season, but led the league in targets (88) and
receptions (50) while posting the third most receiving yards (649)
over the final seven weeks after Gronk was no longer in the line-up.
Houston has two of the best corners in the league in A.J. Bouye
and Johnathan Joseph, but with Edelman spending most of his time
in the slot he should avoid the duo, leaving Malcom Mitchell and
Michael Floyd drawing the heat.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: LeGarrette Blount ran through Houston for
105 rushing yards and two touchdowns earlier in the season. The
Houston run defense has played much better since that game however.
The Texans have allowed a league-best 71.1 rushing yards per game
over their past 10 games played with three rushing touchdowns
allowed to running backs in those games. Blount who turned 30
in December is coming off his best season rushing for 1,161 yards
and an incredible 18 rushing touchdowns. He has failed to score
in just three games all season and should be a big part of the
game plan this weekend, especially as the second half “lead
protector” a role he has excelled in all season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There may not be a more explosive, fantasy
point-producing offense right now than the one in Pittsburgh,
led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. While Roethlisberger himself
didn’t put up excellent fantasy numbers on Wild Card weekend,
he made fantasy owners happy by getting the ball to his best target,
Antonio Brown, who caught five passes for 124 yards and a pair
of touchdowns seemingly before the Dolphins even knew what hit
them. Brown is, of course, once again one of the top options on
the board this week as he will be matched up against a Kansas
City defense that he scored twice against back in Week 4. On that
day, Roethlisberger had his best fantasy game of the season and
one of his most efficient days in his entire career when he threw
for 300 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. While
that should give fantasy owners some confidence, there are some
other factors to consider in this matchup, including that Roethlisberger
is nursing a foot injury which has caused him to miss practice
early in the week. He’s expected to play, but he may be
limited in his mobility. In addition, the Kansas City pass defense
has played substantially better at home this season than they
have on the road, having allowed a total of just seven passing
touchdowns against them at Arrowhead Stadium. Keep an eye out
on Ladarius Green heading into Sunday’s contest as there’s
an outside chance that he will be out of the concussion protocol
and ready to play.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: The dominant regular season that Bell had
carried into the playoffs this past week as the NFL MVP candidate
rushed for a whopping 167 yards in the Steelers’ blowout
win over the Dolphins. Bell wasn’t as active in the passing
game as he typically is, but some of that was due to the game
flow. The dynamic tailback has to be right at the top of the rankings
going into this weekend’s contests as he has been on a hot
streak and, perhaps more importantly, has already shown that he
can produce against this Kansas City defense. Bell abused the
Chiefs back in Week 4 – his first game back from suspension
– to the tune of 144 yards on just 18 carries, adding 34
more yards as a pass catcher. The Chiefs were only a middle-of-the-pack
run defense in the regular season and they actually had struggles
down the stretch, giving up 100-plus rushing yards in five of
their final six contests. The Chiefs have had an extra week to
get healthy and prepare for what they had to assume would be the
Steelers, but this is still the kind of matchup that Bell is certainly
capable of exploiting for big numbers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith Alex Smith threw two or more
touchdown passes in only four games this season. Those numbers
are definitely terrible and worthy of major scrutiny from fantasy
owners, but there is some hope. For example, one of those two-touchdown
performances came back in Week 4 when the Chiefs got blown out
by the Steelers and Smith ended up attempting 50 passes. That
day, he threw for 287 yards – his second best total of the
season. The Steelers also quietly struggled to contain Matt Moore
a week ago, allowing him to complete 29 of his 36 pass attempts
for 289 yards. In addition, Smith does have at least one premiere
option in the passing game, that being tight end Travis Kelce
who ended up finishing the regular season as the No. 1 fantasy
tight end in standard scoring formats. Kelce scored a touchdown
in that game against the Steelers and, other than a down game
against the Broncos in Week 17, finished the season extremely
strong with 100-plus receiving yards in five of his final seven
contests. The other fantasy option to pay attention to in this
passing game is wide receiver Tyreek Hill who has shown himself
to be one of the league’s most explosive players, scoring
five rushing/receiving touchdowns and three kick/punt return touchdowns
in his final six games. While those numbers are certainly worthy
of respect, it’s also worth noting that Hill is producing
those scores on extremely limited touches, which can certainly
lead to extremely disappointing fantasy results should the defense
contain him on those touches. Still, Hill is worthy of WR2 status
this week, particularly if your league’s scoring system
gives fantasy points to individual players for return touchdowns
and/or yardage.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: If the Steelers are able to contain Travis
Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the passing game, the weight of carrying
the Kansas City may fall onto running back Spencer Ware. Ware’s
struggle to produce fantasy numbers are well noted this season,
including just one game of 90-plus rushing yards on the season,
but he has now had nearly three weeks to rest his injured ribs
and he should be back in full capacity to start against the Steelers.
Ware rushed for an impressive 82 yards on just 13 carries when
these teams met back in Week 4 and it could have been more if
the game flow hadn’t forced the Chiefs to pass an abnormally
high amount. Look for Andy Reid and the Kansas City coaching staff
to deploy a significantly more run-centered offense in this Sunday’s
contest as they will do their best to limit the offensive opportunities
for the Steelers’ high-octane offense. This should mean
around 20 touches for Ware, which should be enough to make him
a low-end RB2. The Steelers defense did do an excellent job of
shutting down Jay Ajayi a week ago, however, so it’s tough
to think of Ware as more than an RB2 given that he could be limited
in production even with a decent number of touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: First, I want to thank Aaron Rodgers for
sparing me the emotional rollercoaster that would’ve been
Giants vs. Cowboys. But now, it’s time for his own miracle
run to end. I use the term “miracle” generously as
it hasn’t been luck, but Rodgers putting the entire offense
on his back. It took him about two full quarters last week to
figure out there was a football game going on, but once he did,
the Giants had no answer. Rodgers ended up with 362 yards and
four touchdowns. It was quite fitting that a couple things from
the Giants fluky 2012 run came full circle. First, Rodgers hit
Randall Cobb on a Hail Mary to end the first half (justice for
Hakeem Nicks in 2012). In the second half, Ty Montgomery clearly
fumbled but once again, Ed Hochulu changed the rules of football
to where losing control of a ball is not a fumble (justice for
Ahmad Bradshaw against the 49ers in 2012). When the Packers last
met the Cowboys in October, we saw the rise of the offense they
use now. It was the first game where Ty Montgomery was deliberately
used out of the backfield. And it was the last game before Rodgers
took over the offense. Although the Packers’ four game losing
streak was still to come, the offense never scored fewer than
21 points after only scoring 16 against Dallas and Rodgers threw
for multiple touchdowns in all but one of his remaining games.
This Sunday, he will look to do it again, but will be without
Jordy Nelson, who took what looked like a pretty harmless shot
to the midsection that turned out to have broken multiple ribs.
Mo Claibourne is set to return from an eight week injury for Dallas,
but will be tasked with shutting down Davante Adams instead. Randall
Cobb will try and build upon last week’s impressive return
where he caught five passes for 116 yard and three touchdowns.
Jared Cook also caught five balls last week (on nine targets)
and is a decent option at TE given that there are few strong options.
This is a very different Packers team that the Cowboys saw in
October so I would expect 300-plus yards and multiple scores from
Rodgers. Even in a game I expect (read: hope) them to lose, Packers
are solid investments this week.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The October game against Dallas was also
the last time we saw Eddie Lacy play football. Since then, it
has been the Ty Montgomery show…most of the time. Montgomery’s
usage is sporadic and inconsistent. As an example, last week,
Montgomery left the game in the second half with a minor injury.
McCarthy saw it fit to bring Montgomery back in the waning moments
of the game despite the Packers possessing a three score lead.
Meanwhile, in crucial moments, we saw far too much of Christine
Michael. The Cowboys have been an elite run stopping unit all
season and Rodgers no longer cares about offensive balance. The
Packers will throw so unless Montgomery catches a bunch of passes,
no one in this backfield can be trusted.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was two short years ago that these two
teams met in the postseason. That play is imprinted onto my brain.
You know the one I’m talking about. I’ve watched it
countless times. It was true then and it is true now: Dez caught
it. Don’t think the Cowboys have forgotten how they had
a potential (Rodgers would’ve still had a chance to answer)
victory stolen from them. Dez Bryant is going to be fired up for
this one, especially after missing the previous matchup against
Green Bay with his knee injury. In 2015, Tony Romo only threw
the ball 19 times for 191 yards and two touchdowns. I would expect
Dak Prescott to do a little more. In October, Prescott threw for
247 yards and three touchdowns. I really think we’re in
for an old fashioned shootout. The Packers may have shut down
Eli Manning last week, but it’s hard to say how much of
that is due to the Packers pass defense and how much is due to
Manning being a quarterback very much in decline with an immensely
talented diva WR who apparently forgot how to catch. Maybe this
is the fan in me speaking, but I think we are getting a very strong
game from Bryant this week. Since it’s the playoffs, we
can also look to Jason Witten as he is as reliable as they come.
Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams have faded into the background
as of late.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The reason Romo only threw 19 times in
2015 was because the Cowboys pounded DeMarco Murray 25 times.
Murray’s line in that game looks about right for Ezekiel
Elliott - 25 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown. Elliott hasn’t
played football in three weeks, but don’t expect that to
hurt him at all. At this point in the season, everyone is banged
up. Zeke is probably feeling the best out of all the running backs
given his lengthy rest period. That is only going to help him.
He rushed for 157 yards in the October game. I do not anticipate
seeing much of Darren McFadden or Lance Dunbar. It’s the
playoffs. This is the best Cowboys team since Romo’s first
year starting. The path to victory is led by a team’s best
players. Elliott will touch the ball as much as reasonably possible.
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