Passing
Game Thoughts: After a strong start to the year, Derek
Carr’s production had slipped over the second half of the
season prior to going down with a broken fibula a couple of weeks
ago. It’s been over a decade since the Raiders made the
post season and now they are forced to rely on rookie Connor Cook.
The good news is that the supporting cast remains a strength to
have fantasy success. The bad news is that the Raiders are going
into a hostile environment to square off against a defense that
has been the lynchpin to their success. Whether or not you choose
any of Oakland’s pass catchers starts with the type of format
you will be using. If you simply get one roster of players throughout
the entire playoffs then the Raiders are risky investments due
to an unlikely long run and below average quarterback situation.
However, fantasy managers navigating weekly lineups shouldn’t
overlook the Raiders’ passing game.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Cook had his moments in Week 17 that included a nice touchdown
pass to Amari Cooper. The opponent and situation are not ideal
for him to make his first start of his career so expect a few
turnovers and the lowest ceiling amongst all available fantasy
quarterbacks this week. That translates into slim pickings for
the receivers. Less passes, mean less catches, which mean less
yards. All Oakland receivers and tight ends come into the weekend
as touchdown dependent fantasy plays. Since their Week 10 bye
(or past seven games) Cooper leads the passing attack with three
receiving touchdowns followed by Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford
with two apiece. Subtract Derek Carr and add Connor Cook to that
equation and it adds up to a high bust potential.
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders backfield will see a lot of
Houston Texans home jerseys right up near the line of scrimmage
this weekend. Oakland needs production from its rushing attack
and a few turnovers from the defense to keep this game close into
the fourth quarter. Fortunately, they have the stable of runners
to at least have a glimmer of hope heading into this game. The
Texans haven’t allowed a team to rush for 100 yards on them
since Denver in Week 7. That includes an earlier meeting against
the Raiders that saw the Silver and Black held to 32 rushing yards
on 18 carries. Ouch! The odds of the Raiders having a complete
reversal of fortune are unlikely but Latavius Murray and company
will get plenty of chances to improve upon their totals from earlier
in the year. Murray projects to be the odds on favorite to get
the rock near the goal and has the best path to fantasy success
of all of Oakland’s players not named Sebastian Janikowski.
That sounds better on the surface than it really is because Murray
might not crack 50 yards with 20 carries going up against stacked
boxes all game. Deandre Washington may see a few more touches
but he’ll need to break one or two for his stat line to
be useful in the fake game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Houston finished the regular season ranked
14th in the NFL passing attempts but only 29th in total passing
yards. On a team with a speedy Will Fuller and uber talented DeAndre
Hopkins, the Texans have only four pass plays of 40 or more yards
from scrimmage. Excited? You shouldn’t be. Brock Osweiler
is back in the saddle with Tom Savage concussed. That alone gives
Connor Cook a fighting chance to avoid being the worst fantasy
quarterback this week. For anyone needing a reminder, Brock Osweiler
has 15 touchdowns in 15 games played this season. He also has
16 interceptions and vultured two Lamar Miller touchdowns on the
ground. The good news is that Brock is capable of putting up his
typical game against the Raiders: 240 passing yards with a touchdown
and an interception. Okay so maybe that’s not good but it
should allow somebody from the receiving corps to be a fringe
WR3 this weekend. Fantasy owners cannot rely on DeAndre Hopkins,
or anyone from Houston, but they can take a chance on a player
with potential to have an elite performance. Such is the case
with Hopkins. He has sandwiched two productive outings around
a dismal outing versus the Bengals. I am tempted to give the benefit
of the doubt to a player with Hopkins’ skill set going up
against a team that tied for allowing the 10th most passing touchdowns
on the year. Are you willing trust Osweiler to make a fantasy
impact in the playoffs? C.J. Fiedorowicz finished the year with
the tenth most targets amongst tight ends. The production has
been modest but he is the type of target Osweiler can lean on
to minimize turnovers and move the ball in a conservative passing
scheme. The rest of the gang will be fighting for the leftovers
from a quarterback that has a way of not putting up big numbers.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Opportunity is ripe for the rested Lamar
Miller to be a fantasy darling this week. He missed the final
two games of the year with an ankle injury and he’s probably
not going to be 100 percent until a few months into the off season.
Nevertheless, he is expected to start this weekend and you can
bet he will be the focal point on offense with the team playing
so conservatively on offense these days. Oakland isn’t exactly
strong against the run (allowing 12th most fantasy points to opposing
fantasy running backs in 2016) which should allow Miller to make
a run at the century mark for the fifth time this season. That
should make him one of the better options this week and for as
long as the Texans keep winning ugly. After receiving 32 carries
in Weeks 16 and 17, Alfred Blue moves back into a reserve role
where he won’t be a threat to Miller’s touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After putting together what has been one
of his most efficient seasons, Matt Stafford’s fantasy numbers
finally came back to reality in the final quarter of the season.
The Lions QB was able to throw a pair of touchdowns in his team’s
Week 17 loss to the Packers, but it’s worth noting that
it took a hail mary connection with Anquan Boldin to get to that
number. Take that pass away and it’s now been four straight
contests since Stafford threw for multiple touchdowns in a game.
While his passing yardage numbers have still been solid enough
to make him a viable fantasy option, the lack of touchdown strikes
has led to him being a disappointment down the stretch and he
and the entire Detroit passing game will be limping into this
game against one of the league’s best pass defenses, on
the road in Seattle. The Seahawks gave up a total of just 16 touchdown
passes this regular season and while there are multiple Detroit
receivers who have the ability to produce good numbers in good
matchups, it’d be hard to imagine any of them having a truly
big performance here against Seattle. Golden Tate has caught six
or more passes in five straight contests so he’s definitely
worthy of WR1 status this weekend given the lack of options on
Wild Card weekend, but don’t expect anyone in this passing
game to produce monster numbers in this contest.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: It hasn’t
been a pretty stat line in terms of yards per carry, but Detroit
running back Zach Zenner has been getting things done from a fantasy
standpoint by plunging himself into the end zone. Zenner has now
scored three times in his past two contests, including twice against
a very good Dallas run defense in Week 16. The Seahawks haven’t
given up 100 or more rushing yards to a team’s running backs
since Week 12, but they’ve actually been vulnerable near
the goal line as of late, having given up a shocking five rushing
touchdowns over their past two contests. Some of that is circumstantial,
but it’s noteworthy enough that Zenner should get some serious
fantasy consideration this weekend and he could be as good as
a top three option at the position despite a tough road matchup
against a good defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since his atrocious Week 14 performance
against the Packers, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has really
seemed to turn things around. Wilson threw a total of eight touchdown
passes in his final three games and turned the ball over just
once over that span. Wide receiver Doug Baldwin has really turned
things on down the stretch, leading to him once again being one
of the hottest fantasy receivers in the league heading into the
playoffs. With Seattle’s running game producing at a less-than-acceptable
rate, the team has really turned to Wilson and the passing game
to put points on the board and they’ve been able to do so,
at least as of late. Their matchup this weekend against the Lions
looks like a great one on paper as Detroit gave up the second-most
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this regular season, including
a total of nine touchdown passes over their final three contests,
eight of which went to wide receivers. Jimmy Graham’s usage
has been down, but he’s still a viable option in playoff
draft formats, but there are likely better options on the DFS
front.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: It’s
no secret that Seattle has struggled to run the ball this season.
The retirement of Marshawn Lynch, combined with injuries to just
about every running back on the roster, has led to a significant
lack of rhythm in the running game and little to no fantasy production
most weeks. With rookie Alex Collins seeing an increased number
of touches, even Thomas Rawls – considered the team’s
“starter” – hasn’t been very exciting
down the stretch. C.J. Prosise is expected to practice next week
should the Seahawks win this weekend, but thankfully he will not
be on the field to add additional confusion to an already crowded
backfield. Still, there’s not a lot to like here for Seattle’s
running game. The Lions’ run defense did stumble a bit down
the stretch, but they’ve been very good throughout the majority
of the season, holding opposing running backs to the eighth-fewest
fantasy points (standard scoring) on the year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Of all the teams forced into starting their
backup quarterbacks for this year’s playoff games, the Miami
Dolphins are in the best position with veteran Matt Moore. Moore
has been in the league for nine seasons and has long been considered
one of the league’s best backups. He’s played well
in Ryan Tannehill’s absence, throwing for 721 yards with
8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in a little over three games.
While Tannehill favored slot receiver Jarvis Landry during his
time under center, Moore has spread the ball around more, utilizing
Davante Parker and Kenny Stills heavily making the passing attack
more difficult to defend. Landry saw nine targets during an earlier
regular season game in Miami in which the Dolphins upset the Steelers,
but with the distribution of the ball less predictable, the secondary
will not be able to solely focus on the slot-man this week. The
Steelers’ pass defense was respectable this season finishing
16th in yards allowed (242.6), and came on strong during their
six game winning streak to end the season, forcing thirteen turnovers
and only giving up more than 20 points once in those games.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi had his first of consecutive
200-yard games, against the Steelers on October 16th, and will
most likely be the focal point of the ‘Phins’ offense
– and the Steelers’ defense for that matter –
this week. Despite that game, the Pittsburgh defense still held
opposing offenses to an average of 100 yards per game on the ground
but did yield 15 rushing scores. Despite multiple 200-yard games,
Ajayi was held under 80 yards eleven times. The coaching staff
still does not seem to have total faith in him working in Damien
Williams and Kenyan Drake more than it seems they should. The
Dolphins offensive line started to gel this season which helped
turn the running game around. If Miami is to have any chance to
win this game, they must keep the clock moving and rack up rushing
yardage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger had another strong season,
accumulating 3,819 passing yards with a 29:13 TD-to-INT ratio
but did have a few rough games and has tossed six interceptions
over his last four games of the season. One of those rough weeks
was the Week 6 loss to the Dolphins, where he threw for only 189
yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Ben did play with
an injured knee in the second half of that game and has struggled
on the road. He should have his way in Heinz Field against an
average Miami pass defense. Antonio Brown continues to be his
go to guy and he should have little trouble against any cornerback
Miami puts on him. Byron Maxwell is the team’s biggest name
in the secondary, but the veteran often struggled and was benched
at one point during the season. The Steelers struggled to find
a consistent threat to take the heat off Brown after Martarvis
Bryant’s season long suspension and after Sammie Coates’
inured his hand, so Ben will need to spread the ball around among
Eli Rogers, Darius Heywood-Bey, Cobi Hamilton. TE Ladarius Green
is capable of taking some heat off of Brown and is expected to
play after missing the last two weeks with a concussion. In theory,
given the lack of difference makers at the receiver position,
Miami should be able to give help to whomever lines up with Brown
and shut down the passing game, but Roethlisberger has a knack
of making teams pay for over-committing to Brown. Any one of the
secondary players in the passing game is capable of a break out
performance from week to week.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell has averaged 139 rushing
yards over his last six games and should face little resistance
against the Dolphins’ 30th ranked run defense, which allowed
140.4 rushing yards per game during the regular season. While
the Dolphins did hold Bell to only 50 rushing yards in the last
matchup, those yards came on only ten carries. Bell is also heavily
involved in the passing game and the ‘Phins do not have
anyone on their defense capable of covering Bell, giving Ben yet
another option to beat them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It wouldn’t be a Giants playoff run
without a trip to Lambeau. This is the third time for Eli Manning
with Victor Cruz being the only other Giant who was even around
in 2012. Obviously what happened five and nine years ago is not
necessarily indicative of what will happen Sunday, but there are
things we can learn. For example, in both prior playoff trips
to Green Bay, Manning zoned in on his elite WR1 and everyone else
was purely secondary. In 2008, Plaxico Burress had 11-151-0. In
2012, Hakeem Nicks, in his last of two seasons where he was elite,
had 7-165-2. In the playoffs, and at the very least, in Green
Bay, Manning likes his top option. That bodes very well for Odell
Beckham, who just finished his first career 100-catch season where
he did most of his damage in the second half. Also, those other
two Packers defenses surely had to be more imposing than the current
version as the Packers are down to their 5th and 6th string corners.
The only people that can stop Beckham this week are on the Giants
sidelines. Eli Manning, by default, is a viable option at QB,
especially if you think the Giants are poised for another miracle
run. Sterling Shepard is also a viable flex option, but selecting
an inconsistent number two receiver for a team that, in theory,
should not play more than one game, is a risky proposition.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: After it was reported that Paul Perkins
would see a greater role in the final two weeks, it actually happened.
Rashad Jennings finished the season averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
Paul Perkins averaged 4.1 and over the final three weeks, he averaged
4.8 ypc. He is so clearly superior to Jennings and now that it’s
playoff time, allegiances and veteran status all must go out the
window in favor of winning the game. Perkins is coming off his
first 100-yard rushing effort in Week 17, which likely was the
Giants way of giving Perkins a trial run as the feature back.
He certainly passed and while I would still expect Jennings to
“start” on Sunday, Perkins should see the majority
of snaps. The Packers are still stout against the run and the
Giants should have a pass heavy attack, but they are stubborn
to the core. Perkins is the Giants running back to roll out there
this week, but is more suited for daily than for full playoff
fantasy leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers did not play well the last
time the Giants visited Lambeau in the playoffs. I’m fairly
certain he hasn’t forgotten. The man who has my vote for
MVP is playing the best football of his career and is ready for
some playoff revenge against a team he has already beaten this
season. The Packers’ team composition was very different
in that contest. Eddie Lacy and James Starks both still played
football. Ty Montgomery was a backup wide receiver. And Randall
Cobb was actually relevant. This Sunday, Rodgers will feature
Jordy Nelson and apparently good at football once again Davante
Adams. Adams finished just three yards shy of 1,000 with twelve
touchdowns. Never to be outdone, Jordy had himself fourteen touchdowns
and while he never looked like his old self this season, he showed
how truly brilliant of a WR he is by adapting into a different
type of elite option. The Giants finished the season as one of
just two teams with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed,
but the Packers are simply too explosive of an offense to contain.
Both Packers WRs are in play in both daily and full playoff leagues.
If you want a third option, it’s Geronimo Allison over Randall
Cobb. As an added caveat, I think the Packers are the team most
likely to reach the super bowl other than the Cowboys.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: One of the reasons why I choose Rodgers
over Tom Brady as my MVP is that Brady and Belichick work together
to win football games. Rodgers wins in spite of his awful coach,
Mike McCarthy. After blowing up for 162 yards on 16 carries in
Week 15, Ty Montgomery had 17 carries combined the final two weeks.
Despite averaging 5.9 yards per carry, McCarthy seems unwilling
to truly hand the backfield over to Montgomery because, as McCarthy
has proven for years, he is averse to winning. There is no way
you are using Aaron Ripkowski or Christine Michael so either you
roll the dice with Montgomery or you avoid this backfield all
together. I advise the latter. You can’t trust Montgomery’s
usage and you can’t even rely on him receiving goal line
carries.