Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons can gain a bye in the first
round with a win so fantasy owners should feel fairly comfortable
about starting their typical Falcons in Week 17. The Falcons and
the Saints feature two of the best scoring offenses in the game
so this should be a good one to watch. Matt Ryan has a 7-to-0
TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games to warrant consideration
for comeback fantasy player of the year. If you rode Ryan to you
league’s title game, he should serve you well one more time.
Julio Jones got a game under his belt last week and has a great
match up for his final tune up prior to post season action. This
is actually the third time these teams will be playing in 2016
(Week 17 last year) and Julio hasn’t scored a touchdown
in either of the first two outings so I’m expecting there
will be motivation for him to find the end zone and go into the
post season on a high note. Mohamed Sanu out performed Taylor
Gabriel last week and both are high risk touchdown dependent players
this week. There will be plenty of scoring, however, and there
is potential for one of these two to end up with multiple touchdowns
so the risk adverse owners in deep formats may want to take a
stab. This team has refrained from using the tight end and does
not offer anything of value to the position for fantasy owners.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman and (five touchdowns in
five career games) and Tevin Coleman (three touchdowns in two
career games) have had plenty of success against the Saints. Coleman
is walking a tight rope lately getting timely touchdowns to salvage
his fantasy value more often than not so weigh the risks of using
a 10-15 touch player when setting your lineup this week. Unless
something crazy happens, Freeman will finish the year inside the
top ten of fantasy running backs. Coleman’s presence in
the passing game has eaten into his passing stats but Freeman
is just 79 rushing yards away from posting better rushing stats
in 2016 than he did in 2015. That’s impressive for a guy
who was the top fantasy running back a year ago. The Saints have
given up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs
this season so the match up only makes starting Atlanta’s
pair of horses more appealing.
Passing
Game Thoughts: New Orleans has been eliminated from playoff
contention but I’d be surprised if they didn’t put
up a good effort with Sean Payton and Drew Brees potentially playing
their final game together in the bayou. These two offenses have
combined to average 48 first rounds a game this season and 77
points were scored the last time these two teams went head-to-head.
You want to have guys playing in these types of games. Brandin
Cooks is already a fixture in the lineup and is almost a lock
for at least eight targets a game. Michael Thomas has a good shot
at finishing his rookie year with better numbers than Michael
Colston did during his rookie season. That’s a testament
to Brees’ ability to make the players around him better
and why he has thrown for over 300 yards in every game against
the Falcons since 2014. He spreads the ball around so you can’t
pencil anyone in for a huge game but guys like Willie Snead should
be considered a flex option in deep formats. Coby Fleener had
success against the Falcons earlier this season but he hasn’t
done anything in months. I wouldn’t consider Fleener over
more reliable mid-tier guys like Eric Ebron or Kyle Rudolph but
after you get past the top twelve or so fantasy tight ends, Fleener
offers fantasy owners a live body in what should be a high scoring
affair.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram has flown under the radar
for much of this season despite being a fringe RB1 in 12-plus
team leagues. It’s probably because he doesn’t feel
like a true RB1 due to his inconsistency week to week where he
sandwiches several sub par outings between a few big performances
to make him look better than he really is in the fantasy realm.
He went through a lull in the middle of the year where his touches
were scaled back but it looks like New Orleans is back to giving
him about 20 per game. Atlanta hasn’t been the easiest defense
for opposing running backs to score against (tenth toughest over
the past five weeks) but Ingram’s workload keeps him in
RB2 territory. Tim Hightower appeared to be carving out a role
for himself midseason but he’s come up on the short end
of the timeshare with the team playing in so many shootouts.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In case you missed it, the Texans won ugly
again. That means that Houston clinched the division last week
and will enter the post season as the No.4 seed in the AFC. It
also means that the passing attack remains a giant albatross for
DeAndre Hopkins owners. Savage could revert to chucking it to
Hopkins on two out of every three passes but those chances remain
slim especially considering they have nothing left to gain from
winning this game. More likely, Houston will treat this game like
the fourth game of the preseason to rest guys and give a few backups
some experience. There is only one strategy to consider for any
of the pass catchers in Houston and that is to punt. Houston has
a recipe for success and it doesn’t involve throwing the
ball all over the field. If the passing game struggles when there
is meaning to the game I have a hard time envisioning a lot of
success when the opposite is true. It’s possible that Tennessee’s
secondary will have packed up shop for the season considering
the bitter pill they swallowed last week but I suggest keeping
Will Fuller and C.J. Fiedorowicz on the couch with Hopkins and
Savage this week.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller is questionable and his team
doesn’t stand to gain anything with a win this weekend.
Considering the importance of Miller in the Texans’ offense,
they have more to gain by resting him in a meaningless game so
that he is fresher for the ones that do matter. Can Alfred Blue
be a Week 17 darling if called upon? Probably. Blue has done a
good job as a spot starter in the past and Houston’s passing
game isn’t going to light the way anytime soon. Jonathan
Grimes should get some work on passing downs but I still wouldn’t
trust him in PPR formats. Meanwhile, Akeem Hunt will likely be
the primary backup to Blue when he needs a breather. It’s
tough to make a strong case for any of Houston’s running
backs this week so take a cue from the passing game and keep everyone
other than Nick Novak benched.
Value Meter:
Bench: Everyone
Passing
Game Thoughts: A week of practice won’t be enough
to ease the pain of a team that lost its quarterback and its playoff
hopes in one game. The broken leg suffered by Marcus Mariota last
week took the sails out of the Titans passing attack and fantasy
owners need to think twice about using Delanie Walker and company
this weekend. Matt Cassel is stepping in to play the final game.
Cassel wasn’t horrible in relief of Mariota but he wasn’t
great either throwing for 124 yards and a score on 24 passing
attempts. Outside of one quality game against the Eagles last
season, he has been more below average than average. The Titans
will lean heavily on the ground game this week making the entire
passing game a tough start for fantasy owners. Walker and Tajae
Sharpe may be the best options for anyone thinking about swimming
against the current. Both players have good hands that can be
used in the short passing game to be effective on short quick
throws needed for a backup quarterback to be effective in keeping
the chains moving. Since I don’t think they will be throwing
the ball much outside of third and long, everyone carries a great
deal of bust potential.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee will finish the year the same
way it started. They are going to run the ball until the other
team proves that they can stop it. Armed with a two-headed backfield,
the Titans have the skill to be successful on the ground against
a team like the Texans. For the first time this year, DeMarco
Murray owners have felt the pain that most every other fantasy
manager has felt this year…to see their top running back
go without a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. For only the second
time all year, Murray failed to rush for 100 yards or score a
touchdown costing more than a few fantasy GMs the championship.
Murray may not be the powerhouse RB1 option he was most of the
year but he can’t be overlooked as a starter for Week 17
either. The Titans have clearly brought Derrick Henry into the
backfield rotation but he remains entrenched in a timeshare and
Houston’s 13th ranked defense (allowing 99.5 yards per game)
will likely stack the box throughout this game. I’d be ok
with starting either player as my RB2 knowing that they should
get plenty of work running the ball for a team that ranks third
in the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carolina has been so bad that fantasy owners
can’t even expect Greg Olsen to give them a decent outing
these days. Even with 12 targets last week, the Panthers tight
end was only able to catch half of those passes for a mere 59
yards. It was also his seventh game without a touchdown. Olsen
isn’t alone in the underachieving department. Kelvin Benjamin’s
last four outings COMBINED amount to nine receptions for 112 receiving
yards and one touchdown. He’s barely a top 50 wideout these
days and hasn’t found the end zone in two career games against
the Bucs. The whole offense is stuttering and it starts with Cam
Newton. The reigning league MVP is playing at such a low level
it’s hard to find anything good to say. He is lucky to complete
50 percent of his passes lately and has only one game with multiple
touchdown passes over the past month. Conversely, the Bucs may
have been bad against the pass earlier in the year but they have
been pretty good over the past month or so; holding Drew Brees
to one passing touchdown in two games and preventing Seattle and
Dallas from scoring via the pass. This ship has sunk and if you
stayed on too long your season is already over.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart hasn’t scored on
the road since Week 12. Making matters worse, the Panthers’
lead back has missed practice with a bum foot (again). You may
remember that Stewart had a similar issue around this time of
the year in 2015. The difference then was that the Panthers were
getting ready for their eventual run to the Super Bowl. All signs
point to Stewart being inactive or ineffective so adjust your
plans accordingly. Which backup option will be inserted into the
starting role remains unclear. Regardless of who starts, Fozzy
Whitaker should see more action in the offense. Mike Tolbert and
Cameron Artis-Payne may also get mixed in but none qualify as
backups that will shine with an opportunity. Whoever lines up
in the backfield will have a tough time getting anything going
with the way Carolina has been playing. If you are still in the
hunt for a fantasy title you haven’t been relying on the
Panthers ground game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you like interesting playoff scenarios
check out the Bucs chances. There is still a way for Tampa Bay
to get into the post season and it starts with earning a victory
against the Panthers. They will surely be playing at max effort
for the whole game so the typical guys are on the fantasy radar
heading into this weekend. Mike Evans (one of several misses for
me a week ago) tops the list of fantasy starters for the passing
attack and he also ends it. The lack of depth at the wide receiver
position was a clear weakness coming into the year and group of
Russell Shepard, Adam Humphries and Josh Huff haven’t been
able to find much success after Vincent Jackson was placed on
IR. The lone bright spot has been TE Cameron Brate. With touchdowns
in three of the last four games, he’s been the third best
fantasy tight end over the past five weeks but he was placed on
IR earlier this week with a back injury. As for Jameis Winston,
this isn’t a great game to deploy him. Both teams will be
running and that will shorten the game and lead to less passing
attempts than normal.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: This just wasn’t a good year to
be a running back in Tampa Bay. The changeover over at the position
took another turn this week when Doug Martin left the football
field to seek help for the same issues that got him suspended
for four games. It was against the Panthers in Week 5 that Jacquizz
Rodgers got his first chance to start and it looks like he’ll
be the guy to lead the way against them in Week 17 as well. HC
Dirk Koetter had no reservations grinding it out on the ground
with Rodgers as a starter earlier in the year. The added depth
shouldn’t scare away anyone thinking of starting Rodgers
as a RB2 this week because he still has a shot at seeing 20 carries.
Charles Sims has been placed on IR so he won’t be stealing
any touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jags made me eat some crow last week
and it tastes a little bitter considering I was rather optimistic
about this team coming into the year. I’m not sure what
to expect from this team going into Week 17 but there is renewed
hope that Allen Robinson and company could put up respectable
fantasy numbers against a defense surrendering 260 passing yards
per game (9th worst in the NFL). That’s a little generous
considering they haven’t exactly faced a decent passing
team since Green Bay in Week 9. Nonetheless, this is a tough spot
for fantasy owners because we’ve now seen the Jags play
horribly (Week 15) and excellent (Week 16) but they have burned
fantasy owners far more often throughout the year. I’d steer
clear of counting on anyone producing this week but the passing
game appears to have some new life going into the final week of
the year making Robinson and Marqise Lee WR3/Flex options for
deep leagues (Robinson’s the better option of the two based
on expected targets).
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon’s career has had a rough
start to say the least. An ankle injury has landed him on the
IR for the second straight season. That should allow Chris Ivory
to get almost all of the carries for the Jags on Sunday. Breaking
free of the timeshare should allow Ivory’s owners enough
confidence to make him a low end RB2 against the Colts. Denard
Robinson is also on IR, leaving the team with little in the way
of alternatives and no more games left so I expect Ivory to be
on the field all day. His 3.8 yards per carry average this season
is the lowest mark in his career but adding a few carries and
a handful of receptions should get him to at least 20 touches
with 30 a realistic possibility if the Jags can keep the game
close on the scoreboard.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The injury to Donte Moncreif is big blow
to many championship squads. The touchdown monster of the Colts
receiving game still managed to catch his seventh of the year
before exited with a shoulder injury. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t
exactly done well with extra chances this season and fantasy owners
shouldn’t expect him to do too much in Week 17. Chester
Rodgers has flashed some potential but is still too risky as the
fifth or sixth best option in the passing game. That means all
eyes are on T.Y. Hilton who has been nothing short of excellent
this year. Hilton has notched 100 yard receiving games in three
of his last four outings and should be a lock for double digit
targets with Moncrief out of the picture. Hilton has amassed over
a 100 yards in each of the last four games in which he has seen
at least 10 targets so figures to be one of the strongest plays
at the WR position this weekend. Andrew Luck has been a high floor
fantasy starter this season and that’s where he finds himself
again in the season finale. In a pass first offense he has been
able to consistently throw multiple touchdowns each game but his
chances of ending the year with an eye-popping fantasy line are
not likely. Dwayne Allen hasn’t done anything notable since
his three touchdown performance on Monday night a few weeks back.
Jack Doyle has been the more consistent fantasy performer but
remains a second grade option for very deep leagues.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore sits only 36 rushing yards
away from the century mark and I wouldn’t bet against him
getting reaching that plateau for ninth time of his career. He’s
good for 60-80 yards and a score more often than not. He actually
has more receiving touchdowns (2) than rushing touchdowns (1)
while playing at home this year but I like his chances of getting
in on the ground this week considering the Jags have allowed four
of their last five opponents to score at least once rushing touchdown.
Somehow Robert Turbin has seven total touchdowns this season on
68 touches for the year. That’s better than a touchdown
per ten touches and good enough to make him a top 50 running back
entering this week’s slate of games. You can’t really
rely on Turbin for a fluky touchdown but it does make you wonder
just how good Frank Gore could have been with a few more scores
under his belt.
Passing
Game Thoughts: From MVP candidate to IR, Derek Carr will
miss Week 17 and require a long off-season layoff after breaking
his fibula in the Raiders’ Week 16 win over the Colts. Oakland
will now be forced to turn to backup Matt McGloin, who has not
seen a start since his rookie season of 2013. McGloin is certainly
not an MVP-caliber quarterback and thus absolutely cannot be trusted
to go up against the NFL’s best fantasy pass defense in
Week 17. The Broncos have allowed just one total touchdown pass
over their past four contests combined and while they don’t
have much to play for aside from pride at this point, that could
be enough to shut down this sure-to-be-underwhelming Oakland passing
attack. Receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who are typically
borderline WR1’s, now both become WR3/Flex plays in this
contest with McGloin at the helm and a lockdown Denver secondary
across the line of scrimmage.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders’
running game is in an interesting situation this week. The team’s
best chance to defeat the Broncos right now is obviously to control
the clock and run the ball down their throats. However, the team
is also looking toward the playoffs and they need their new quarterback
to get clicking with his wide receivers. Murray struggled this
past week in what should’ve been a great matchup against
an underwhelming Indianapolis defense, so there’s some risk
in this contest. Still, the Raiders aren’t likely to sit
him in this game as the team needs to win in order to secure a
first round bye in the playoffs, so look for a good number of
carries from Murray yet again with a decent shot at a touchdown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Broncos officially out of playoff
contention, the Broncos have now entered into the “early
preparation for 2017” mode. That starts at the quarterback
position where starter Trevor Siemian is entrenched in what is
sure to be an interesting battle against 2016 rookie Paxton Lynch.
While Siemian is expected to start this week, it would not be
at all surprising to see Lynch get some playing time, especially
if the Broncos fall behind on the scoreboard. This means that
the Denver quarterback situation should be avoided for fantasy
purposes, even though Siemian did throw a pair of touchdown scores
when these teams met earlier this season. Demaryius Thomas and
Emmanuel Sanders are the only players in this passing game who
should garner any fantasy attention, but even they have been disappointing
in recent weeks. Both receivers have to take a bit of a downgrade
this week due to the unpredictable quarterback situation and their
own recent lack of success, but they should be solid WR2’s
in Week 17.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: The Denver
running game continues to be in flux, but with the team now looking
forward to next season, it seems likely that the coaching staff
will do what they did this past week and lean heavily on Devontae
Booker – not veteran Justin Forsett – in this contest.
Neither player has been particularly effective as of late, but
Booker was surprisingly targeted 10 times this past week in the
passing game – a number which certainly should draw some
attention from fantasy owners in PPR formats. Both players will
likely see touches which limits their upside and neither make
for strong plays against an Oakland defense that has given up
just one touchdown and zero 100-yard rushers over the past three
weeks, but Booker is the guy to take a chance in if you’re
in desperation mode.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off of a surprisingly acceptable
start against the Seahawks in Week 16, Carson Palmer looks like
he might be a decent start this week against a struggling Rams
defense that has given up a whopping 13 touchdowns over their
past five contests, including a 266-yard, two touchdown performance
to Colin Kaepernick this past week. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald
has taken a step back in both yardage and receptions as of late,
but he is still the team’s top target in the passing game
and thus has to be considered a WR2 in this contest. Meanwhile,
fellow wide receiver J.J. Nelson has really stepped up as of late,
catching touchdown passes in four straight contests, including
his best performance of the season this past week when he went
for 132 yards and a score. Nelson’s big play ability makes
him an intriguing option, but his floor is also very low as he’s
just not being used as heavily as his recent final point totals
might indicate. He’s a high risk, high reward play who does
have the potential to get into the end zone for the fifth straight
contest. Finally, wide receiver John Brown should be on fantasy
benches this week as he remains limited in practice and his snap
counts have varied wildly since being diagnosed with the sickle-cell
trait back in Week 7.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The unbelievable
season for David Johnson continues to roll on as the second-year
back has now topped 100 total yards in every contest this season
– a feat that many believed not to be possible in this pass-happy
era. Johnson has scored an impressive five touchdowns over his
past two contests and now leads all running backs with 20 total
scores and 77 receptions on the season. He failed to get into
the end zone when these teams played earlier this season, but
the Rams were a much different team at that point and he still
went for 124 total yards. Look for plenty of usage from him again
this week, making him a high-end RB1 option once again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie Jared Goff continues to struggle
mightily, further limiting what is already a mediocre Los Angeles
passing game. The quarterback has not thrown for more than 250
yards in any game this season and he had arguably his worst performance
of the season this past week when he threw for just 90 yards,
one touchdown and two interceptions in what was, at least on paper,
a very favorable matchup against the 49ers. With Kenny Britt possibly
out this week, there really isn’t much to like in this passing
game at all.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: If you held
on to Todd Gurley all this time and finally inserted him into
your lineup against the 49ers in Week 16, you were likely fairly
happy with the results as the second-year runner got into the
end zone for the second time in three weeks. Unfortunately, his
yardage was again subpar as he rushed for just 67 yards on 23
carries. Sadly enough, this measly performance was Gurley’s
fourth-best rushing yardage day of the season, further highlighting
why he should absolutely not be trusted Arizona’s top-five
fantasy run defense. Gurley was held to just 33 rushing yards
on 19 carries when these teams met back in Week 4 and while he
saved an otherwise horrendous fantasy day by making some plays
in the passing game, his upside is very limited in this matchup.
Still, due to the high number of players who will be limited or
inactive this weekend, Gurley projects as a middle-of-the-pack
RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rushing touchdowns in back-to-back weeks
make Alex Smith’s fantasy numbers look pretty good as of
late, but the stark reality is that the Chiefs’ quarterback
has not thrown for multiple touchdown passes in a game since all
the way back in Week 7. To make matters worse, the Chargers themselves
have not allowed more than one passing score in a game since Week
10. If you’re looking for the bright spot, it’s worth
noting that Smith did light this defense up for 363 yards and
a pair of touchdowns back in Week 1 – his best fantasy day
of the season, but things have changed quite a bit since then.
Smith is a decent QB2 option, especially because so many other
starters will be sitting this week. The best player in this passing
game continues to be tight end Travis Kelce who has distanced
himself from the rest of the tight end pack. He’s the best
in the league from a fantasy standpoint and is a no-question top
option this week. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been held without
a catch in each of his past two games, but continues to find ways
to put up fantasy points, whether it be as a runner or a returner.
This means he continues to be a risky fantasy option, but a player
who has the potential to put up some nice fantasy points should
the Chiefs make it a point to get the ball in his hands.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Running back
Spencer Ware was taken out of this past week’s victory over
the Broncos and while he did not get back on the field, the Kansas
City coaching staff has made it clear that he would have be able
to return should the team had needed him. With the Chiefs still
in the battle for the AFC West division championship, look for
Ware to play this Sunday despite being limited in practice this
week. The Chargers’ run defense hasn’t been bad this
season as they’ve given up the eighth-fewest rushing yardage,
but Ware continues to get just enough touches to remain a decent
RB2, even if his upside is fairly limited.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a lost season for the San
Diego Chargers, but there’s no question that Philip Rivers
is still putting up the numbers to make him a respectable QB1
most weeks. The veteran passer has thrown multiple touchdowns
in eight straight contests and while he has been turning the ball
over too often, his fantasy points totals have remained solid.
Wide receiver Tyrell Williams has been the team’s most consistent
target in the passing game, having caught five touchdown receptions
over his past eight games, but tight end Antonio Gates is also
seeing plenty of attention from Rivers in what could end up being
the final stretch of what is surely a Hall of Fame career.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The train
of injured San Diego running backs continued this past week as
Kenneth Farrow went down, now leaving the team in an even tougher
situation than they have been throughout the season. Melvin Gordon
has the possibility of returning this week, but he’s been
limited in practice for a few weeks now and his status will be
a true game-time decision, making him an extremely risky play
in Week 17. If Gordon doesn’t play, the team will presumably
turn to backup Ronnie Hillman. Gordon could be a RB2 if he plays,
but don’t look to Hillman to do much in what will likely
be a pass-heavy gameplan.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a terrible stretch prior to this,
quarterback Russell Wilson has now thrown seven touchdown passes
over his past two games, including a huge four-score game this
past week against an excellent Cardinals defense. The Seattle
offensive line has struggled, but they performed better in the
second half against Arizona, thus giving plenty of reason to like
Wilson and the Seattle passing game on the road against the 49ers
this week. Seattle has already locked up their division so there
is risk of the team opting to rest their starters late in the
game, but they still have the possibility of earning a first round
bye with a win and an Atlanta loss. The 49ers defense isn’t
likely to put up much of a challenge, so feel free to deploy Wilson
and Doug Baldwin. Tight end Jimmy Graham isn’t very exciting,
but given the lack of talent at the position, he appears to be
a viable TE1.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The 49ers
run defense continues to be historically bad and while the Seattle
running game has been pathetic itself this season, there’s
certainly an opportunity for fantasy production in this contest.
Even Todd Gurley and the Rams were able to have a decent day against
this defense in Week 16, so Thomas Rawls – who appears to
be set to go after suffering a shoulder injury last week –
could be in line for a nice fantasy day. If Rawls does sit, Alex
Collins appears to be next in line, but he could also see some
touches this week, especially if the Seahawks get ahead by multiple
scores and the team opts to rest Rawls for the playoffs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s coming off of one of his best
fantasy days of the season, but Colin Kaepernick is not a great
option in Week 17 as he and the 49ers host the NFC West champions,
the Seattle Seahawks. Kaepernick has historically struggled mightily
against this defense and there’s really no reason to be
overly optimistic in this contest either. The only reason to have
hope for Kaepernick this week is if the Seahawks get out to a
big enough lead that they bench their starters and he is able
to exploit their second-string defense in garbage time. That’s
not enough to warrant trusting Kaepernick as anything other than
a low-end QB2 and no one else in this passing game should be considered
for fantasy purposes in Week 17.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: With Carlos
Hyde suffering what is believed to be a torn MCL this past week,
the 49ers will now be forced to look down the depth chart in what
is already a weak running game. It is believed that Shaun Draughn
will be next in line to get the start, but the 49ers have also
looked to DuJuan Harris in the past when Hyde has been afflicted
with injury. This uncertainty, combined with the excellent Seattle
defense, makes the fantasy outlook for both of these players pretty
lousy. Draughn could be considered as a low-end flex option in
PPR formats, but that’s about it.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady didn’t have to do much last
week to run over a completely dead Jets team. Just 214 yards passing
on a mere 27 pass attempts. He did throw for three scores, which
was probably enough to at least not be the reason you lost your
championship (which I hope you won). This week, the Patriots are
one of just a handful of NFL teams with something to play for,
but Brady is still at risk to be a mid game benching given that
this game may not be close. The Patriots need a win (or a Raiders
loss) to lock up the AFC’s top seed while the Dolphins are
locked into a wild card spot and have little to play for. Julian
Edelman’s floor has been incredibly high since Rob Gronkowski
went down. He hasn’t been under 73 yards receiving since
Week 8. It’s also worth noting he’s ten receptions
away from 100 and 45 yards away from 1,000. It is entirely possible
the Patriots try and get him there. If not Edelman, then I expect
passes to head in the direction of Malcolm Mitchell. His dud last
week was simply because the passing game became irrelevant very
quickly and unfortunately Mitchell hadn’t done much at that
point. He is still Brady’s top option after Edelman, but
it is important to note that he did not practice Wednesday or
Thursday. Keep an eye on his status. If he’s out, it will
likely be Chris Hogan that benefits. The Dolphins just let Tyrod
Taylor throw for his first 300-yard game this season. The Patriots
will look to lock up the No.1 seed early.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Apparently this Dion Lewis taking handoffs
thing is real. Lewis handled 16 carries after taking 18 the previous
week. He would have out-carried LeGarrette Blount had the game
remained even remotely competitive, but Blount worked his way
up to 20 carries in clock killing mode. Blount also fell into
the end zone twice. James White caught a touchdown pass, but he’s
still just the third option. I expect a lot of Blount this week
as the Patriots go up early and look to just put the game away
on the ground. White and Lewis are not good options.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I wasn’t kidding when I said two weeks
ago that I didn’t think Matt Moore was much of a downgrade,
if any, from Ryan Tannehill. Moore has been quite competent with
a 6:2 touchdown:turnover ratio since taking over. The Dolphins
are certainly leaning more on Jay Ajayi, but Moore has made the
throws when asked to. Last week, he forgot Jarvis Landry played
football (3-29), but did throw touchdowns to DeVante Parker and
Kenny Stills. Parker’s was…interesting, but I’m
more concerned with the seven targets Parker saw and the eight
Stills saw – both more than Landry’s six. It’s
hard to know how much these guys will play this week and what
kind of effort we will get in a mostly meaningless game (the Dolphins
can still theoretically get the five seed, which means going to
Houston instead of Pittsburgh). Combine that with the fact that
the Patriots have been the top fantasy defense over the past three
weeks and this is not an offense you want to invest in.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi exploded last week for 206 yards
on a whopping 32 carries. He now has 420 yards against the Bills
alone this season. Against the Patriots, way back in Week 2, Ajayi
took all of five carries for 14 yards. Arian Foster was also still
in the NFL back then so we really can’t count that. What
we can count is the fact that Ajayi has been dealing with a bit
of a sore shoulder. Adam Gase has gone on record that the starters
will play, but many coaches say that because that’s what
they think they’re supposed to say. The difference between
going to Pittsburgh to face a team the Dolphins already beat and
going to Houston is not worth the risk of losing key players.
I expect Ajayi to play, but how much will depend on how healthy
he feels and how much Gase likes to gamble. I would avoid Ajayi
this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: What a mess the Buffalo Bills organization
is. Sometimes the impact of coaching is overstated in sports.
Other times, you have last week’s game against the Dolphins.
Rex Ryan was not just complicit but an active contributor to the
Bills’ defeat. His mistake filled performance got both him
and his brother sent packing on Monday. Exhibit A for why fantasy
leagues must end Week 16: Tyrod Taylor just went off for almost
40 fantasy points in arguably the best game of his career as he
tried to will the Bills into the playoff hunt. His reward: a Week
17 benching for EJ Manuel so the Bills aren’t at risk for
being on the hook for all $30 mil & change of Taylor’s
roster bonus should he get hurt. Manuel is an awful quarterback
and saps all the allure out of using Sammy Watkins this week.
Watkins is also coming off his best game of the season where he
caught seven of ten targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. Charles
Clay posted his second consecutive monster game with 8-85-2. None
of this matters with Manuel calling the shots. The only saving
grace is that the Jets have been elsewhere for weeks. Their offseason
is already under way. At this point, they’re just going
through the motions. Regardless, it’s a total crapshoot
with the Bills offense in Week 17.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy should play a full complement
of snaps this week. Interim Head Coach Anthony Lynn has an elite
back in McCoy and a strong second man in Mike Gillislee. Yet for
reasons unknown, rightfully terminated Rex Ryan decided to give
the ball to Reggie Bush in a crucial spot last week. Bush promptly
lost eight yards. Words cannot express how terrible Rex Ryan is
as a head coach. He should never coach again. Shady, on the other
hand, should get the ball as much as possible. The Bills don’t
have any reason to rest him and he will want to finish the season
on a high note. Last week’s 24 carries were a season high
for McCoy and his 128 yards marked the seventh time he’s
eclipsed 100 yards rushing. At the risk of sounding like a broken
record, the Jets have not cared for weeks. McCoy will be able
to do whatever he wants next week. His biggest threat is how much
Gillislee is permitted to steal from him. Both are in play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: On the other side of this contest, we have
a team also not starting the same quarterback it did last week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been named the starter for the Jets for what
feels like the 100th time this season. All I can say is this is
a massive indictment on one of the worst uses of a draft pick
in NFL history as Christian Hackenberg has no business being in
the NFL and the Jets know it so they won’t even give him
a ceremonial start in a meaningless Week 17 game. No one on this
offense cares anymore so despite the Bills’ inability to
play defense last week, Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa, and Robby
Anderson are all not options. Adding injury to insult (literally),
both Marshall and Anderson did not practice this week as of Thursday.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte is not going to play. Neither
is Bilal Powell. Khiry Robinson broke his leg for the third time
last week. Brandon Wilds would be the Jets running back, but he
didn’t practice Thursday either due a hamstring injury.
The Jets will take the field Sunday, but that’s about all.
This is a lost season and their entire offense is hurt. It would
make sense to give Wilds an extended look, but at this point,
anyone questionable to play that isn’t playing a meaningful
game should be considered doubtful. The Jets have no reason to
push anyone who is less than 100% so we could be looking at Brandon
Burks as the lead back. Full disclosure: I have no idea who Brandon
Burks is.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys really just looked like they
were having fun out there last week. And that was more than enough
to bludgeon the Lions to the precipice of playoff elimination.
Dak Prescott only threw twenty passes, but he completed fifteen
of them for 212 yards and three touchdowns. Two of those scores
went to Dez Bryant, who had his best game in two years. In addition
to his four receptions for 70 yards, Bryant also threw a touchdown
on an end around WR pass to Jason Witten. Jason Garrett has gone
on record multiple times to say that healthy starters will be
play this week. I believe him…sort of. I believe that Dak,
Dez & co. will be out there in the first quarter. I do not
believe they will play the entire game. My best guess is we see
the second unit in the second half. Bryant has been his WR1 self
for much of the second half of the season, but there is no way
to predict how productive he will be this week given the potential
for limited action. My gut says trusting Cowboys this week is
a risky proposition.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott is not going to catch
Eric Dickerson. But even if he plays just a half next week, he
should top 1700 yards rushing and already has 15 touchdowns. He’s
an elite option for as long as he plays. He’s just as much
of a gamble as the rest of the Cowboys offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles have had a nice ten day rest
after knocking off the Giants to secure the NFC’s top seed
for their Week 17 opponents. The Eagles did not play well in that
game. Carson Wentz threw for a season low 152 yards and just one
touchdown. The Eagles didn’t really win the game, but rather
Eli Manning lost it with his inability to throw the ball to players
on his team. No Eagles pass catcher had more than three receptions.
I have no doubt that Jordan Matthews has the talent to be an elite
receiver in this league, but he is completely shackled by his
junior varsity quarterback and bland offense. Every single Eagle
was a dud. The Cowboys may not try very hard this week and the
Eagles surely want to end the season a high note, but their team
just isn’t very good. Week 17 is very frustrating to manage
and exceedingly difficult to predict. The Eagles look like a team
to avoid as well.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Well…except for Darren Sproles.
With the rest of the backfield now on IR, Sproles is setup for
a large workload and in the season’s final game, there won’t
be concerns about over usage. Sproles totaled 63 yards and a score
against the Giants and is a decent bet to surpass that yardage
this week. He might even outscore Zeke by virtue of playing longer.
Value Meter:
RB2: Darren Sproles
Bench: All other Eagles
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has four games with 350-plus
passing yards, including last week’s loss at Philly. His
next highest yardage total? 261. He also threw 63 passes last
week, which is seventeen more attempts than his previous high.
It was a volume effort. Luckily for the Giants, the loss did not
matter as Tampa’s loss secured the No.5 seed for the Giants.
They can’t move from that spot, making their final contest
a glorified exhibition. Ben McAdoo has insisted that the starters
will play, but I do not believe that for a second. Manning and
Odell Beckham will start and play a series or three, but by the
second half, if not the second quarter, their days will likely
be over. Contrary to popular belief, the Giants care about themselves
and their success; keeping Washington out of the playoffs is not
on their list of concerns. Unfortunately, absent a situation like
Pittsburgh where Mike Tomlin has explicitly stated he is resting
his starters, you can’t go ahead and plug in the backups,
thus making Giants unusable this week.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Last week, Paul Perkins finally eclipsed
Rashad Jennings in usage. It would behoove the Giants to continue
this trend and eventually faze Jennings out of the offense despite
his relative effectiveness last week (9-44). Normally I would
advocate completely avoiding the Giants running game, but Paul
Perkins could see increased work this game because the Giants
still view Jennings as someone that actually matters. In a shocking
twist, Perkins might be the only Giant you can trust.
Passing
Game Thoughts: On the other side of the field, we have
a team that could not possibly be more motivated playing against
what will likely be a second team defense. Fresh off dropping
41 points in Chicago, Kirk Cousins will look to lead his team
to the playoffs with a win over the Giants. Cousins threw for
270 yards last week and one touchdown while adding two on the
ground. Operating without Jordan Reed (who is going to play this
week, but cannot be trusted) and channeling his inner 2013, Cousins
treated DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon like the high level receiving
duo they are. Jackson posted his third consecutive 100-yard receiving
effort while Garcon racked up 94 yards of his own. Together, they
caught half of Cousins’ 18 completions in a game where he
only had to throw 29 times. Jamison Crowder has faded into obscurity.
With the Giants resting starters and anyone even remotely injured,
Captain Kirk, along with Commander Spock (Garcon) and Lieutenant
Sulu (Jackson) will look to lead the crew into the postseason.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Rob Kelley is currently nursing a sore
knee after his 19 carry, 76-yard outing last week. I think he
is still living off that fluky explosion against Green Bay. Kelley
has been subpar for five weeks now and was outplayed by Mack Brown
(8-82-1). Kelley is going to suit up this week in a must win game
and is a solid bet to fall into the end zone, but he is both inefficient
and ineffective. Last week, Chris Thompson stole two touchdowns.
I use the term “stole” generously as neither was a
short yardage score, but Thompson touched the ball a mere four
times for a total of 37 yards with two of those touches ending
in six points. He should fade back into irrelevancy this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bengals’ pass defense has been
much improved over the second half of the season, so Joe Flacco’s
upside is limited. Now out of the playoff chase, Flacco will likely
focus his targets on soon-to-be-retired Steve Smith at the expense
of Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman. If you’re
all about the narratives, Smith is your guy this week.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens
fantasy running back situation went from bad to worse when Kyle
Juszczyk played an expanding role in Week 16 scoring on of his
four touches. However, the future of the backfield is with rookie
Kenneth Dixon and he should see the most work of this three-headed
monster.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dalton hasn’t cracked the 20-point
mark in four of the past five games and will once again be without
star wideout A.J. Green. Brandon LaFell (6-130-1) produced big
numbers last weekend, but most of that came on one long touchdown
catch and run. Still, with Green and Tyler Eifert sidelined by
injury, he’s Dalton’s best option. Rookie Tyler Boyd
has been mostly disappointing this season, but after Cody Core
couldn’t produce on 14 targets last time out, Boyd should
see more than four targets.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: It’s likely to be another next man
up situation as Jeremy Hill (knee) proved ineffective last weekend
and might sit out this one. If Hill plays, he’s an RB3 at
best. If he sits, that would leave Rex Burkhead, who has yet to
prove much in four seasons, a chance to carry the running game.
He’ll be an intriguing volume play against a solid Ravens
run defense that’s only given up six rushing TDs to running
backs this year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Robert Griffin is in concussion protocol
but is expected to be ready for the finale. Griffin has been awful
since his return in Week 14 as yet to throw a touchdown pass in
four games this season. Back in Week 6 Kessler and Terrelle Pryor
made a solid passing combo (9-75-2) but Pryor’s 3-36 line
last week was his best production since RGIII resumed QB duties.
Yikes. Even in a game the Steelers don’t want to play the
Browns passing game can’t be trusted.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Crowell has
been solid in two of the past three games and should be facing
a defense made up of mostly backups. He’s a low-end option
as the Browns will want to get their running game going to protect
RGIII. Unfortunately, the Browns are expected to experiment with
a new offensive line setup which will include second-year bust
Cameron Erving moving from center to right tackle. Duke Johnson
was limited in practice Thursday. If he’s able to play,
it will take some of the shine of Crowell’s marginal upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coach Mike Tomlin has already announced
that his three offensive stars will sit Week 17 for this inconsequential
game. Many others are likely to follow suit as the game progresses,
therefore any Steelers in your lineup are a gamble. Landry Jones
will be under center, but will be without his two best weapons.
Eli Rogers becomes his top outside option and could post double-digit
fantasy points. After that it’s a crapshoot.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Even backup running back DeAngelo Williams
(knee) is a question mark in this one having not touched the ball
since Week 9, making Fitzgerald Toussaint a likely source of double-digit
touches against a Browns’ run defense that ranked second-to-last.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite eight interceptions over the past
two games, Matt Barkley has produced solid fantasy totals. His
favorite target is Cameron Meredith (25 targets, 18 receptions
for 239 yards) and that should continue. Alshon Jeffery is getting
plenty of targets too (19 over two games), but is not producing
quite as well as Meredith with his opportunities. The Vikings
have been stingy against the pass but have shown some holes in
the last couple weeks against better QBs (Rodgers, Luck).
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The Vikings
run defense has been a lot better than their pass defense which
could limit Jordan Howard’s upside, but the Bears running
back is a workhorse and last week hit triple digits despite Chicago
falling way behind on the scoreboard. He’s going to see
20 touches and is still a top-10 option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford-to-Adam Thielen exploded last
time out and the wideout should be the best option between he
and Stefon Diggs, but the Bears defense has been top-five over
the past five games against wide receivers (16.9 FPts/G). Kyle
Rudolph is getting plenty of targets (49 over five games) and
is a solid top-10 tight end option.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Unlike the secondary, the Bears run defense
has been vulnerable, so it’s a shame the Vikings don’t
have a healthy Adrian Peterson to take advantage. Jerick McKinnon
is the best option, but Matt Asiata gets the goal-line work leaving
both guys as mediocre fantasy choices.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers came up big in Week 16 (347
passing yards and 4 TDs, 1 rushing TD) and hasn’t thrown
an interception since Week 10 while tossing 14 touchdown passes.
He’ll face a Lions pass defense that could be bolstered
by the return of Darius Slay (hamstring). Considering what the
Cowboys did to the Lions secondary last week he’ll need
to be at his best. Rodgers threw four touchdown passes against
Detroit in Week 3. Jordy Nelson has been an elite receiver this
season posting double-digit points in nine games. He’ll
do it again on Sunday. Davante Adams has been more inconsistent
than Nelson, but he’s still explosive and a must start.
Randall Cobb (ankle) has yet to practice this week and should
not be started until he proves he’s healthy.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
(IR - ankle) ran over the Lions defense for 103 yards in their
first meeting. He’s long gone from the active roster, but
Ty Montgomery has the ability to break through for a solid fantasy
total. Still, he’s not likely to get too many rushing attempts
with the way Rodgers is throwing the ball.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford is going to have to be
at his best if the Lions are to match points with Rodgers and
the Packers. Golden Tate has been a reliable target, but Marvin
Jones hasn’t been the same in the second half of the season
and Anquan Boldin is primarily a possession receiver and red zone
target. Eric Ebron has been taking more of the offensive load
the past four games (30 targets) and has low-end TE1 value.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Zach Zenner looked like a star in the first
half against Dallas, but the score forced Detroit away from the
running game. If the Lions are smart they will go back to the
ground game in Week 17 to keep it out of Rodgers’ hands.
Most likely Theo Riddick (wrist) will be sidelined again this
weekend leaving Zenner to carry the load against a solid Packers’
run defense.