Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      






Inside the Matchup
Week 12
11/23/16; Updated: 11/25/16

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Jake Gordon



MIN @ DET | WAS @ DAL | PIT @ IND | LAR @ NO

ARI @ ATL | SD @ HOU | SEA @ TB | CIN @ BAL

NYG @ CLE | TEN @ CHI | JAX @ BUF | SF @ MIA

NE @ NYJ | GB @ PHI | CAR @ OAK | KC @ DEN

Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Vikings @ Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Stefon Diggs was on fire seeing back-to-back double digit reception totals, prior to battling with Patrick Peterson this past week. Although the Lions also feature a shut down corner of their own, Darius Slay isn’t likely to follow Diggs into the slot like Peterson did. Diggs has not been practicing so far this week, and it appears he might miss this game with a knee injury. If Diggs is healthy, he should be a good play. Adam Thielen would be in play if Diggs sits. Sam Bradford has put up decent fantasy numbers in recent weeks and the Lions pass defense has allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season, but with no bye weeks in Week 12, most fantasy owners should have better starting options at quarterback. Detroit is a plus matchup for fantasy tight ends (second only to Cleveland in fantasy points allowed to the position) so while Kyle Rudolph has seen his targets drop considerably since Norv Turner “resigned” this matchup may be too good to keep him out of your lineup. Rudolph did score when these two teams met up in Week 9, but it was the only reception he pulled in on three targets.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Running Game Thoughts: Minnesota ranks 32nd in rushing yards making them the league’s worst rushing attack. With that said, it’s tough to imagine anyone reading this considering starting either Matt Asiata or Jerick McKinnon based on their production this season. While Detroit is only a middle of the road run defense, it should be noted that they have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns, so even hoping for a short yardage plunge into the endzone from Asiata seems like a bad bet.

Value Meter:
QB2: Sam Bradford
WR2: Stefon Diggs (if he plays)
TE1: Kyle Rudolph
Flex: Adam Thielen (WR3 if Diggs sits)
Bench: Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon, Cordarrelle Patterson

Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings’ defense hasn’t been quite the force that it was early in the season, but overall they are still ranked third in the league against the pass and have been a difficult matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Matt Stafford has been up and down this season and fantasy owners should take note that he has struggled against the Minnesota defense since Mike Zimmerman has been on board. He’s averaging only 239 passing yards per game in his last seven starts against the Vikings and has had very little fantasy success during that span. If you must start anyone from this passing game, Eric Ebron is likely your best bet. Ebron has been solid since his return from injury and the Vikings allowed him to accumulate 92 yards on 7 receptions back in Week 9 and have allowed Vernon Davis and Jermaine Gresham to score in the two subsequent games since.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Running Game Thoughts: Theo Riddick, as a running back, is listed in this section despite the fact that nearly 75 percent of his fantasy points have come through the air. While he’s not used much in the running game, this matchup is a good one as the Vikings haven’t been stopping opposing runners over the last five games. The Lions should look to test this run defense this week, especially if Stafford struggles as usual against this defense, with a combination of Riddick, Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington.

Value Meter:
QB2: Matthew Stafford
RB2: Theo Riddick
WR3: Golden Tate
TE1: Eric Ebron
Bench: Zach Zenner, Dwayne Washington, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin

Prediction: Lions 20, Vikings 17 ^ Top

Redskins @ Cowboys - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Can someone point me in the direction of the person in charge of NFL scheduling? I just want to know who thought it was fair to have the Redskins play on Sunday night four days before a 4:30 pm Thanksgiving Day game (haven’t fact checked it, but pretty sure it’s never happened before). As incredible as the Redskins offense looked Sunday night, the toll that unprecedented turnaround has on the human body is significant. But if anyone is up to it, it’s the red hot Redskins. At some point, while we were all looking away, the NFC East became the best division in football. Also, while at least I was looking away, Kirk Cousins became a quality NFL starting quarterback. I always respected his fantasy game, but what he did Sunday night is not simply a case of getting lucky. Essentially, Cousins did whatever he wanted against the definitely not making the playoffs Packers. The dimes he dropped on Crowder’s two long receptions and Garcon’s touchdown were impeccably placed. That’s five straight games for Cousins with multiple touchdowns, five straight games with 100 yards or a touchdown for Jamison Crowder, and don’t look now, but Garcon has been useful in five of his last six. The only sour note is that Jordan Reed’s game probably should’ve been bigger, but the Redskins connected on so many big plays that Reed wasn’t really needed. The Redskins are firing on all cylinders. Hopefully, for fantasy owners, they can recover well enough to make Thursday’s showdown in Dallas look similar to the Cowboys-Steelers shootout…or maybe like the epic 2012 shootout back when Robert Griffin actually played football. Either will suffice.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Running Game Thoughts: Rob Kelley is officially a workhorse running back. He still comes out on passing downs and proved why on Sunday night, but the man is a rock solid RB2 in a season where running backs are hard to trust. Kelley handled a career high 24 carries, marking his third consecutive game with 20-plus touches and ripped off 137 yards to go along with his three touchdowns. Now don’t get over the top excited by this line as Kelley was having a standard day until the fourth quarter when he went bonkers with a 66-yard run and stole Jamison Crowder’s touchdown after he was downed at the one-yard line. Kelley’s line would have been useful regardless, but certainly not as robust. The Cowboys are only allowing 84.4 rushing yards per game. Kelley dominates goal line carries so the potential for a short score is always there, but I think this will be more of an aerial assault.

Value Meter:
QB1: Kirk Cousins (mid-range)
RB2: Rob Kelley (mid-range)
WR3: Jamison Crowder
TE1: Jordan Reed (high end)
Flex: Pierre Garcon
Bench: DeSean Jackson, Chris Thompson

Passing Game Thoughts: I can distinctly recall sitting on my friend’s couch last Thanksgiving, watching the Cowboys play the Panthers and clinging to the last slivers of hope that the Cowboys would win and make a run at the playoffs. Little did I know that was the last time I’d ever see Tony Romo throw a pass as a Cowboy. Here we are one year later with the Cowboys atop the NFL with a new quarterback and a new sense of hope. I don’t know how many superlatives I can use to describe Dak Prescott. Last week, he completed his evisceration of the AFC North where he totaled ten touchdowns against zero interceptions (he did lose two fumbles). The last time Prescott failed to throw for a touchdown or account for multiple scores – Week 2 against the Redskins. I think we’ll get a bit of a different performance this time. Prescott is having no trouble connecting with definitely an elite WR1 again Dez Bryant. Since Bryant’s return from injury, he has scored in three of his four games. Against these Redskins in Week 2, Bryant had his season high in catches with seven and 102 yards. I do find it quite the coincidence that this is the second year in a row Bryant finds himself matched up against Josh Norman on Thanksgiving. The scheduling gods are funny like that. While Norman’s complete lockdown of Bryant in 2015 should be cause for some concern, I have seen nothing from any of the Cowboys’ opponents indicating they can be stopped. The Redskins are an average defense facing an elite offense. Advantage: Cowboys.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Running Game Thoughts: Only 127 yards of offense? Ezekiel! How dare you! That’s where we’re at with Ezekiel Elliott right now. He rushed for 97 yards on 25 carries and added 30 yards on four receptions. It was his worst fantasy performance since Week 1. I guess we can credit the Ravens top ranked rushing defense? Or, as I prefer, chalk it up to all the touchdowns being through the air. Touchdowns are hard to predict, but I think Zeke is a lock to score on Thursday. I’m sure we’ll hear some talk about rookies and Thanksgiving and Jerry World, but that’s all noise. With the way the Cowboys are playing, none of these guys are fazed by anything right now. Elliott is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and two receptions per game. The Redskins allow 4.6 yards per carry. Last week, the Packers leading rusher was Aaron Rodgers. It won’t be that easy on Turkey Day. I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and remember that just like all of us, Zeke is going to eat.

Value Meter:
QB1: Dak Prescott (high end because he’s been that good and has earned it)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (high end)
WR1: Dez Bryant (he’s back!)
Bench: Terrance Williams, Jason Witten

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 24 ^ Top

Steelers at Colts - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Pittsburgh snapped a four game skid last week and looks primed to make it two in a row against a vulnerable Colts secondary. The Steelers have carved up this defense in their last two meetings to the tune of ten touchdowns and nearly 900 yards of offense through the air. The stats suggest another feast is in the offing as Indy is yielding a league worst 284.5 passing yards per game and Ben Roethlisberger ranks sixth amongst quarterbacks in passing attempts per game. Antonio Brown has only two touchdown grabs in his previous five games, but he poised to go over 20 fantasy points for the third time this season. Sammie Coates is dealing with broken fingers and Darrius Heyward-Bey continues to be bothered by a sprained foot so the door is wide open for Eli Rogers, Cobi Hamilton or Ladarius Green to be a deep league option for fantasy owners this week. Eli Rogers has been good for about four catches a game and is the most talented guy in the passing game after Brown and Le’Veon Bell. He has put up better target totals in recent weeks making him flex option in leagues with at least 12 teams. Ladarius Green has returned to the fantasy scene with a resounding thud. Banking on his potential is a risky proposition for fantasy owners but the match up isn’t too shabby if you are looking for a long shot.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams (knee) is aiming for a Week 13 return so Le’Veon Bell will continue to be the bell cow in this backfield. The Colts have been better against the run recently allowing only 3.33 YPC and no touchdowns to opposing running backs over the past three games. That might be enough to deter DFS managers but it sure won’t keep one of the game’s best fantasy performers out of seasonal lineups. The former Spartan comes into the week leading all running backs with 142 total yards per game. Expect him to serve up the pumpkin pie in the second half and put the finishing touches on an eventful day in the NFL. Fitzgerald Toussaint remains the primary backup but his short term value as a handcuff for Bell owners should come to an end following this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Ben Roethlisberger
RB1: Le’Veon Bell
WR1: Antonio Brown
Flex: Eli Rogers
Bench: Ladarius Green, Jesse James, Cobi Hamilton, Sammie Coates

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck is in concussion protocol and the team isn’t expecting him to be available for the third leg of NFL action on Turkey Day. Scott Tolzien has backed up Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck thus far in his career so he hasn’t exactly been battle tested at the NFL level. His last passing attempt was also his only throw of the 2015 season but the coaching staff has no doubt simplified the offense for Week 12. This is still a home game for the Colts and the offense has plenty of weapons for Tolzien to keep the chains moving. However, it is hard to overlook the potential for turnovers given the fact that this offensive line gives up plenty of sacks (second most in the league) and the quarterback is unproven. The Colts will lean on the running game but there should be some garbage time yards in the second half to prevent complete busts from T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief in PPR leagues but the floor for both is substantially lower in standard leagues. Last week Dwayne Allen played ten more snaps than Jack Doyle and the pair combined for only one reception on four targets. Oftentimes the tight end will see more work when the backup quarterback is given a spot start but this is the exception to the rule.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

Running Game Thoughts: Without Luck slinging the ball all over the field, Frank Gore will need to be a tank in order for the Colts to pull out a victory this week. That would be a stark change for an offense built around the passing game. Although Gore has been solid to this point in the year, yards will be tough to come by without Indianapolis’ typical passing attack. Pittsburgh defense is allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game and will welcome a physical battle in the trenches by loading up the box and daring Tolzien to throw the ball downfield. Gore’s number should be called when the Colts get the pigskin into the red zone. Only six teams have given up more rushing touchdowns on the year than Pittsburgh. I don’t see how Indy wins this game without winning the time of possession battle by mixing in Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman. In the end, I don’t see this game being close by the time the fourth quarter comes around, limiting Gore’s overall production for Week 12.

Value Meter:
QB2: Scott Tolzien
RB2: Frank Gore
WR3: T.Y. Hilton
Flex: Donte Moncrief
Bench: Phillip Dorsett, Jack Doyle, Dwayne Allen

Prediction: Steelers 31, Colts 13 ^ Top

Rams at Saints - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jared Goff’s first professional start produced a whopping 7.8 fantasy points which made him the worst fantasy QB of the week (not counting Cody Kessler’s injury shortened affair). There is only one direction the needle can go but I don’t know if there will be much movement considering how well the Saints’ pass rush has been of late. The Rams will need to at least try and open up the offense to stay competitive in this game. That should translate into a little bit of upside for Los Angeles’ receivers. Kenny Britt has seen at least 6 targets in each of the past six games and is about the only option in the passing attack worth considering this week. In deeper leagues, fantasy managers could look to Lance Kendricks. The former Badger has seen the second most targets and a rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight end. Tavon Austin and the rest of the receivers are secondary options on a team starting a rookie quarterback playing on the road in one of the tougher venues for visiting teams.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley finally put together a game that his owners could at least say was useful in Week 11. The second year runner out of Georgia scored for the first time since Week 5 to post his third best output of the year. In Week 12, he has a better shot at reverting back to being a flex option than keeping up the momentum as a low end RB2. New Orleans has been the twelfth toughest team against opposing running backs in the past three weeks. The passing game doesn’t scare anyone other than fantasy managers actually thinking about starting a Los Angeles Ram this week. The Saints will load the box against Gurley and make him earn every inch he gains. Nonetheless, any running back in the league getting twenty touches a game is worth a flex start. Plug him in this week and hope Goff can make strides in his second start.

Value Meter:
TE2: Lance Kendricks
Flex: Todd Gurley, Kenny Britt
Bench: Tavon Austin, Jared Goff, Brian Quick

Passing Game Thoughts: From a fantasy perspective it’s comforting to know that when opposing teams prevent Drew Brees from throwing the ball down the field, he can still dink and dunk his way to a quality fantasy start - as he did versus the Panthers last week. The Rams have held four of the last six quarterbacks they have faced to less than 200 passing yards so this will be a tough test for the Saints offense. This is definitely a rare occurrence where a backup with a good match up is worth a spot start for Brees’ owners. That reasoning carries over to the pass catchers. This offense has a lot of mouths to feed and the Rams will make it tough to rack up a lot of yards. It’s still one of the best passing offenses in the league so there isn’t anything wrong with flexing Michael Thomas or Willie Snead - just factor in the risk of starting a guy with a low floor before making a final decision. The Rams haven’t allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end since Week 3 so this might be the week to keep Coby Fleener on the bench.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram (concussion) was cleared to practice this week and he has put in limited sessions on Wednesday and Thursday which suggests that he should be cleared from the protocol prior to Sunday’s showdown against LA. Ingram has looked like a rejuvenated rusher ever since Tim Hightower was given a larger role. I’d be skeptical of starting Ingram or Tim Hightower considering they will be splitting the workload for what might be very few yards. Los Angeles has been a top five unit against the run over the past month and we already know that the touches will be getting split. Without much volume neither player offers a whole lot of yardage potential for Week 12. Touchdowns are certainly possible but I still feel like this game will be full of field goals. The only way I’d touch either running back in most formats is if my team doesn’t have an adequate RB2 because there are better flex options available.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees (low end)
RB2: Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower (low end)
WR2: Brandin Cooks (low end)
Flex: Michael Thomas, Willie Snead
Bench: Coby Fleener

Prediction: Saints 23, Rams 10

Cardinals at Falcons - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer is currently the 18th ranked fantasy quarterback in FPts/game. That rating goes up to 15th over the past five weeks. That’s a telling sign that this offense is running through David Johnson these days and not the passing game of years past. Palmer gets a boost because he’s facing the Falcons defense in Week 12 but he’s still a fringe starter based on your other options. Larry Fitzgerald just keeps on trucking at the age of 33. He remains a weekly starter in most formats but plays up in PPR leagues because his touchdowns are fewer and farther between (Fitz has not scored since Week 5). J.J. Nelson burst onto the scene a few weeks back and started to look like a potential difference maker after being named the starter over an ailing Michael Floyd. Fast forward to this week and it’s almost like that never happened. Floyd and Nelson are joined by John Brown to offer plenty of talent for Palmer to throw to but little certainty as to who see the most action from week to week. The potential for a shootout makes this decision even tougher as all three are boom or bust fantasy plays for Week 12.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Running Game Thoughts: David Johnson is reminding fantasy owners of the days when LaDanian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk won fantasy championships. Arizona’s leading rusher has scored a touchdown via the run and the pass in each of the past two games as he continues to devour the NFL. He’s the sports car that you take out for a drive on Sunday’s that inspires that “wind in your hair” kinda feeling when you read the ticker across the bottom of the screen. Andre Ellington is locked into the backup role with the team not choosing to bring Chris Johnson back from the IR.

Value Meter:
QB1: Carson Palmer (low end)
RB1: David Johnson
WR2: Larry Fitzgerald
Flex: Michael Floyd, J.J. Nelson
Bench: Jermaine Gresham, John Brown

Passing Game Thoughts: Prior to their Week 11 bye week, Matt Ryan helped Julio Jones become the first receiver to go over the 1,000 receiving yard threshold in 2016. The dynamic duo walks into a tough match up in Week 12. Arizona leads the NFL in passing yards allowed and will make stopping Julio Jones their mission in this game. Jones is as “unbenchable” as any player in the NFL these days but don’t expect him to do the heavy lifting for your fantasy squad this week. Due to the bye week, you may have missed Austin Hooper’s promotion to being the team’s top tight end following an injury to Jacob Tamme. The rookie out of Stanford has had his moments over the first half and has had an extra week to prepare as the starter. If you are in the market for a dark horse tight end that could be a worthwhile fantasy starter over the final weeks of the year then Hooper is your guy. If the Falcons are able to take the win in this game one of Mohamed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel will have had to make some big catches. However, that doesn’t make either one of them worthy flex plays in an unfavorable fantasy situation.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

Running Game Thoughts: Tevin Coleman is healthy and ready to reassume his role in the backfield. He is part of the big play potential of this offense and is always a threat to score. He’s over the fumbling issue that plagued him last year (zero fumbles in 2016) and should eat into Devonta Freeman’s carries once again to be a decent flex option in Week 12. Freeman has held his own while splitting time with Coleman at the outset of the year. He’s typically a good bet to make a run at 100 total yards every week but Freeman might struggle to get half of that against an Arizona rush defense that leads the league with 3.2 rushing yards allowed per carry. The match up and return of Coleman are enough to give fantasy owners pause before plugging Freeman into their lineup this week. Then again, if you’ve rode him this far, why get off the horse?

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan
WR1: Julio Jones
TE1: Austin Hooper (only in deep leagues)
Flex: Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman
Bench: Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel

Prediction: Falcons 27, Cardinals 24

Chargers at Texans - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: Chargers are in the basement of the AFC West and will start to look towards the future as they come out of their bye week. Philip Rivers isn’t going down with his guns in the holster and you can expect him to be plenty motivated to take a shot at a first place team like Houston. Tyrell Williams is 26th amongst receivers in targets through eleven weeks. He’s going to get a lot more before the end of the year but I’m not going anywhere near him this week. Houston’s corners are more than capable of keeping him at bay so unless the Chargers decided to add a bunch of short routes to his playbook he will struggle in Qeek 12. Conversely, I’m expecting a quality outing from the guy on the other side, Travis Benjamin. He’s been slowed by a knee injury in recent weeks but has practiced all week and should be at close to full speed by Sunday. His quickness in the short passing game should be useful against this defense but keep things in perspective. Only the Vikings’ secondary has allowed fewer points to opposing wide receivers over the past five weeks. I’d only take a shot with Benjamin as a flex option in deep leagues. Rivers’ favorite target, Antonio Gates, is too hot to keep on the bench. The match up isn’t ideal but how many tight ends are getting nine targets a game and have scored in three consecutive games?

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Running Game Thoughts: I was one of the masses who felt Melvin Gordon would come back to Earth. A quick glance at his game log to see five straight games with over 20 carries erases that feeling. Don’t forget to scroll over and check out the receiving stats. He’s stood up to the challenges on a team that has been ravaged by injuries this season and continues to defy the odds. He faces the Texans this week; a team that has given up the eighth most fantasy points to running backs this year. He’s getting the touches all over the field and coming off a bye so get him into your lineup and be thankful you took a shot on him this year. The team claimed Ronnie Hillman off waivers to do what he was doing in Minnesota-learn another offense and be ready in emergency situations. Hillman will slot in behind Kenneth Farrow on the depth chart.

Value Meter:
QB1: Philip Rivers (low end)
RB1: Melvin Gordon
TE1: Antonio Gates
Flex: Travis Benjamin (in deep leagues only)
Bench: Tyrell Williams

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s tough to watch Brock Osweiler these days. Where other quarterbacks are known for making it look easy, Brock makes it look harder. Case in point, DeAndre Hopkins and his freakish athleticism that allows him to catch balls thrown anywhere near him is averaging five catches a game. What is even crazier is that a team with Hopkins and Will Fuller on the roster has completed the fewest passes of at least 20 yards in the entire league. Heck, Houston has only passed for 108 first downs this season (27th in the NFL). The fact that San Diego has been one of the better match ups for fantasy quarterbacks this year won’t even matter as long as Osweiler fails to dive his receivers chances to make plays down the field. Remind me again how the Texans are leading the AFC South? The lone bright spot has been the increased usage of the tight end position this year. C.J. Fiedorowicz is coming off his first career game with ten targets and I that’s a trend that should continue this week against the Chargers. Outside of PPR leagues, it is very tough to trust anyone in this offense to put up meaningful stats in Week 12.

SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

Running Game Thoughts: After opening the year without a touchdown until Week 6, Lamar Miller has now scored four times over his past five games. The team’s struggles to get first downs have prevented Miller from reaching his fantasy potential this season but he could be in for his best game of the year against San Diego. Not only are the Bolts generously giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs, but the offensive line appears to be playing better than they were at the beginning of the year. He was limited in practice this week to help him recover from minor ankle and rib injuries. Yet all reports have indicated that he is still expected to shoulder the load in Week 12 so start him with confidence. Akeem Hunt served as the primary backup for Miller a week ago with Alfred Blue (calf) out of the lineup. Blue’s status isn’t looking good for this week so expect to see Hunt get a few more snaps this week.

Value Meter:
RB1: Lamar Miller
TE1: C.J. Fiedorowicz
Flex: DeAndre Hopkins,
Bench: Brock Osweiler, Will Fuller, Braxton Miller, Akeem Hunt, Alfred Blue

Prediction: Chargers 23, Texans 20

Seahawks at Buccaneers - (Gordon)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s amazing how much better this offense looks when Russell Wilson is healthy and running around extending plays. The improved health of No.3 has translated to the box scores with his average fantasy points per game climbing from 16.5 over the first seven games to 26.3 over the past three. This should be a closely contested game with plenty of back and forth so keep riding Wilson’s hot streak. Doug Baldwin has seen his fantasy stock improve slightly and I like his chances at producing in this game. He’s still one of the streakier fantasy options but the injury woes in the run game should translate into more passes for Wilson and no other receivers have stepped up. Jimmy Graham passed his 2015 total for receiving yards a week ago and should do the same with his reception total this week. He has been the team’s second most targeted player in 2016 and the Buccaneers have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past three weeks.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Running Game Thoughts: The revolving door that is the Seahawks backfield took yet another hit last week when rookie C.J. Prosise went down with a shoulder injury. Patient Thomas Rawls should be giddy about his opportunity to carry the load down the stretch where he has the talent to be a difference maker for fantasy owners trying to secure a playoff spot this weekend. Seattle is conscious of Rawls’ workload as he works past his injury and will not be too keen on letting him get too involved for Week 12. However, a conservative projection of 15 or more touches should be enough for him to produce as a RB2 this weekend. Rookie fifth rounder Alex Collins is next up on the depth chart and he should see a few carries right out of the gate. He can’t be trusted as a flex option just yet but offers plenty of insurance considering Rawls’ running style and injury history.

Value Meter:
QB1: Russell Wilson
RB2: Thomas Rawls
WR3: Doug Baldwin
TE1: Jimmy Graham
Bench: Alex Collins, Jermaine Kearse, Tyler Lockett

Passing Game Thoughts: Seattle has been banged up defensively and will be without Earl Thomas for the first time ever. That’s good news for Jamies Winston and the rest of the Bucs passing game. Mike Evans leads all receivers in targets coming into this week’s game and he has a good shot at retaining that title when the clock hits zeroes. Adam Humphries has done his best to provide Winston with another consistent option in the passing attack besides Evans. Unfortunately, Russell Shepard (hip) returned to the lineup last week and he has a history of eating into Humphries upside so choose at your own risk with these two players. Raise your hand if you knew that Cameron Brate has moved into the top ten of fantasy tight ends! He has delivered modest yardage and catch totals in a weak year at the position to climb his way up the rankings. Nevertheless, that has been good enough to get him this far so consider him a high end TE2.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Running Game Thoughts: After getting a couple of tough assignment the past two weeks, Doug Martin draws a Seattle defense that has given up four touchdowns over the past three games. The coaching staff hasn’t been shy about giving Martin plenty of volume so he may approach RB1 level numbers but he is still best deployed as a high end RB2 for Week 12. Jacquizz Rodgers (sprained foot) returned to practice this week and is closer to returning but his official status for Week 12 remains up in the air. He could work his way into more carries down the road but he shouldn’t sniff a fantasy lineup this week. On another note, Charles Sims (knee) was the player Tampa tabbed to return from the IR this year. He returned to practice on Wednesday but nobody has indicated if a return to the field is imminent or if they will need the entire three weeks to evaluate his progress. If the aforementioned backup running backs are unable to return to play against Seattle then the team will rely on Peyton Barber once again as the team’s second best fantasy running back.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jameis Winston
RB2: Doug Martin
WR1: Mike Evans
TE2: Cameron Brate (high end)
Flex: Adam Humphries and Russell Shepard
Bench: Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Buccaneers 20

Bengals @ Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton and the Bengals lost two players last week, A.J. Green and Gio Bernard, who had accounted for 45.9% of the team’s targets and 49.4% of the team’s receiving yardage. So obviously a big part of the passing game will be missing for at least the next couple of weeks. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd will need to step up against a tough Ravens’ defense allowing only 219 passing yards per game. Fantasy owners can take some hope that the Raven’s have allowed 19 passing touchdowns with wide receivers doing most of the damage. Unfortunately for Tyler Eifert owners, while he should see an uptick in targets because of those injuries, he will be facing a very difficult matchup. Baltimore is allowing the second lowest fantasy points to tight ends this season.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill’s workload should increase with the loss of Bernard. While Rex Burkhead will step directly into the passing catching role, it stands to reason that Hill should see an increase in targets as well going forward. Like Eifert however, Hill’s increased role may go to waste as Baltimore is the top ranked run defense, allowing only 76 yards per game and 4 touchdowns this season on the ground. Hill has seen his share of sub-4 yard per carry days and he’ll face a team allowing only 3.4 yards per attempt on the season. The volume should be there but it may not amount to huge fantasy numbers.

Value Meter:
QB2: Andy Dalton
RB2: Jeremy Hill
WR3: Brandon LaFell
TE2: Tyler Eifert
Bench: Rex Burkhead, Tyler Boyd

Passing Game Thoughts: With no teams on a bye this week, it’s difficult to imagine anyone starting Joe Flacco, a quarterback that has only finished as a QB1 twice this season. The Bengals do present a decent matchup, allowing 248.7 yards per game and 19 passing touchdowns, but that’s just not enough to think about staring Average Joe. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith, on the other hand, have been fantasy starting options for most of the season and have combined for 7 of the team’s 10 receiving touchdowns. Smith has finished in the top 20 at the position four of the past six games while Wallace has only once been out of the top 30 during that span.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

Running Game Thoughts: Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon should be able to move the ball on the ground against a Bengals defense allowing 123.4 yards per game and has yielded 8 rushing touchdowns. The problem however is that we could see an even split of the touches this week, limiting their individual upsides. Dixon has seen his snaps rise in each game since he returned five weeks ago which has rendered West not worthy of even being a RB2 during those weeks. One of the two could end up having a nice week, but a subpar day is the risk that you take.

Value Meter:
QB2: Joe Flacco
WR2: Steve Smith
WR3: Mike Wallace
Bench: Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Breshad Perriman, Kamar Aiken, Dennis Pitta

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 20

Giants @ Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has done much better at home (307.5 ypg) than on the road (215.8 ypg) this season, but this week in Cleveland should bump that road split up a little. The Browns are allowing 265.5 passing yards per game and have yielded a league high 25 passing touchdowns. As one may expect, Odell Beckham has a similar home/road split to Manning, and the Browns with Joe Haden healthy have managed to slow down outside wide receivers keeping them in check. Expectations for Beckham should be lowered, but his owners cannot really bench him. Its slot-man Sterling Shepard who has scored in three straight games that should benefit the most as Cleveland has been eaten up by slot receivers this season. Cleveland has also struggled against opposing tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points to the position, so Will Tye who has come on as late could see a big day as well.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Running Game Thoughts: Rashad Jennings had his best game of the year last week, and gets rewarded with the prospects of facing a terrible Browns run defense this week. The Browns allow 143.9 rushing yards per games and have given up 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. Jennings has had a fairly unremarkable season, but the Giants’ coaching staff knows that the team must establish a running game in order to sustain success into the post season. This should be a good week to keep that momentum going.

Value Meter:
QB2: Eli Manning
RB2: Rashad Jennings
WR2: Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard
TE2: Will Tye
Bench: Victor Cruz

Passing Game Thoughts: With rookie Cody Kessler suffering another concussion, the team will turn back to veteran Josh McCown. With Cleveland having only scored 26 points combined over the last three weeks, it’s hard to imagine the offense getting worse under McCown. That’s not to say it will get much better either though. Terrell Pryor (56-724-4) is the only Cleveland offensive player that should get any real consideration for fantasy line-ups. Corey Coleman just hasn’t done much since his return from a broken hand and Gary Barnidge has not surpassed 50 yards in four straight games and has just a single touchdown this season.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: The Browns constantly falling behind quickly has not allowed them to even try and run the ball most weeks and this week should be no different. Isaiah Crowell has seen some work in the passing game, but the Giants have shut down opposing running backs this season making Crowell a risky choice. Duke Johnson hasn’t even approached RB2 status in weeks, so while in theory he could see heavy targets if/when the team falls behind, it has obviously not panned out that way in reality. It’s best to avoid this backfield unless you are desperate.

Value Meter:
QB2: Josh McCown
WR2: Terrelle Pryor
Bench: Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, Corey Coleman, Andrew Hawkins, Gary Barnidge

Prediction: Giants 24, Browns 10

Titans @ Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota has been on fire, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns over the last seven weeks with 19. With him facing a reeling Bears’ defense that has allowed a top 12 scorer in four of their past six games, there seems to be little reason to bench Mariota this week. The one caveat for those starting Mariota or any of the Titan pass catchers is that Tennessee should be in full control of this game against a Bears’ team starting its third string quarterback and just playing the season out at this point. Passing volume could therefore be minimized. Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe have benefitted from Mariota’s hot streak, but only Delanie Walker can really be counted on given the likely game script this week.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Running Game Thoughts: The Bears’ run defense has been extremely solid this season, allowing only 98.8 yards per game with 8 rushing touchdowns allowed, but DeMarco Murray is having the type of season where his owners aren’t even looking at the matchup when inserting him into their line-ups. He has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season and as stated above he should see a heavy workload in a game where Tennessee should be protecting a lead throughout. There may be no safer RB1 this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Marcus Mariota
RB1: DeMarco Murray
WR3: Rishard Matthews
TE1: Delanie Walker
Bench: Derrick Henry, Tajae Sharpe

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler’s torn labrum means that Matt Barkley takes the reins of the offense this week. Anyone excited? With Alshon Jeffrey suspended and Zach Miller out for the season, this will likely be one of the worst passing game performances of the season despite what should be favorable circumstances. Barkley was dreadful in his one appearance this season completing only 6 of 15 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions. Based on the rest of his career, only a small improvement over that performance should be expected.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard should be the focal point of the offense this week. While the expected struggles of the passing game will work against him, volume shouldn’t be an issue and he has shown that he can also contribute in the passing game once the Bears inevitably fall behind. Double digit touches shouldn’t be an issue and Howard has gained at least 99 yards from scrimmage in five of the last six games that that has happened.

Value Meter:
RB2: Jordan Howard
Bench: Matt Barkley, Jeremy Langford, Ka’Deem Carey, Cameron Meredith, Eddie Royal

Prediction: Titans 23, Bears 13

Jaguars @ Bills - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles is an embarrassment to the position of quarterback. I don’t know what more to say. He’s terrible. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, and in particularly, Allen Robinson owners, he’s not getting benched. If they had a young QB to give a shot, I’d be all for it, but because they’re the Jaguars, they don’t. So Bortles will continue to be a turnover machine. Robinson has scored in three straight, which is nice, but he’s still only averaging 56.7 receiving yards per game. Marqise Lee appears to have surpassed Allen Hurns on the depth chart. Lee has had exactly four catches in his last three games, but scored last week. He’s worth a look in a bind. The Bills are a very good defense. They are going to dominate this game and win comfortably. Bortles might throw three picks. The Bills also lead the NFL with 31 sacks. I think my favorite start in this game might be the Bills defense.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars rushing attack is just as much of a mess as the passing game. Okay. I take that back. Nothing is as much of a mess as Bortles (except maybe Brock Osweiler). But the Jaguars running game is not good. T.J. Yeldon left last week’s game with ankle injury. I guess he was playing well before that, but we’ve heard this song from Yeldon before. Chris Ivory then entered the game and promptly fumbled because Jaguars. With that being said, Ivory did catch all six of his targets for 75 yards and handled 17 carries, albeit for only 39 yards. He will be a volume RB2 if Yeldon can’t go. The Bills have given up twelve rushing scores on the season. You could do worse than Ivory.

Value Meter:
QB2: Blake Bortles
RB2: Chris Ivory (if Yeldon sits)
WR3: Allen Robinson
Flex: T.J. Yeldon (if he plays), Marqise Lee
Bench: Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas

Passing Game Thoughts: Just when you’re ready to trust Tyrod Taylor as an every week QB1, he goes and throws for 166 scoreless yards with a pick. The Bills beat the Bengals with defense last week since they basically ran out of offensive players. As if the Bills’ receivers weren’t bad enough, Robert Woods is looking at a multi-week absence. Brandon Tate and Marquise Goodwin are now the Bills starting receivers…for now. Sammy Watkins returned to practice this week and just might play on Sunday. I don’t know how effective he will be coming off the long layoff, but he certainly could be an impact player down the stretch. I prefer to wait a week with situations like this, but Watkins is always a threat whenever he’s out there. The Jaguars are last in the league with just three interceptions and have allowed 14 passing touchdowns on the season. Taylor should bounce back nicely this week. I don’t know who he’s throwing to if not Watkins, but he’s going to find a way.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

Running Game Thoughts: Adding injury to injury, LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb on Sunday and missed the entire second half. On Monday, he had a procedure done and is expected to play this week. I’m not sure how or if this is a good idea, but I’m also not a doctor. If he’s playing for the Bills, he’s playing for you. He could end up being the Bills leading rusher and receiver. He was on pace for a monster game last week before getting hurt, ripping off 33 yards and a score on just five carries. The Jaguars have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season. If Shady plays, he’s a good bet to find the end zone. Also helping his cause is the fact that the Bills should be playing with a lead and looking to win this game with ball control and defense. McCoy may touch the ball 30 times, even with only nine functioning fingers.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tyrod Taylor (low end)
RB1: LeSean McCoy (high end)
Flex: Sammy Watkins (if he’s not too limited)
Bench: Mike Gillislee, Bills receivers

Prediction: Bills 26, Jaguars 13

49ers @ Dolphins - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The biggest praise I can give Colin Kaepernick is he’s better than Blaine Gabbert…at least for fantasy purposes. Kaepernick is an awful quarterback, but despite the advice you may see from other places, he is, in fact, a viable streaming option week to week. You’re not getting 30 from him, but he’s good for at least one score (he has two in each of his last three games) and he’ll usually get you 30-40 yards on the ground. You can get by with Kaepernick if, for example, you have to replace Andrew Luck this week in a bind. What you don’t need are any of his receivers. Between Jeremy Kerley and the General (that’s Quinton Patton for the non-history buffs), it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be the apple of Kaep’s eye on a particular week. The most consistent receiver of late has been Vance McDonald. He’s reemerged as a viable TE1 given the poor state of tight ends.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde is so incredibly talented. It’s a shame to see him waste away in San Francisco. He looked fantastic last week and is firmly entrenched as the feature back. DuJuan Harris is not seeing any significant uptick in snaps. He is there when Hyde gets tired. Shaun Draughn is a bit of a nuisance stealing some of Hyde’s third down work, but this backfield belongs to Hyde. The 49ers shouldn’t get completely blown out by the Dolphins, thus keeping Hyde relevant and the focal point of the offense for all four quarters. The Dolphins are poor against the run, allowing 126.1 rushing yards per game. Hyde could push RB1 numbers this week for the first time in a while.

Value Meter:
QB2: Colin Kaepernick (very viable streamer)
RB2: Carlos Hyde (high end)
TE1: Vance McDonald (low end)
Bench: DuJuan Harris, 49ers receivers

Passing Game Thoughts: Let’s all give a round of applause to Jarvis Landry for finally returning to the end zone. That’s about all the good news I can give you on Landry. The guy is bordering on useless. The PPR floor is still there, but he’s only topped 100 yards twice this season and has been held to 61 yards or fewer six times including his last three. The problem is Ryan Tannehill. It’s bad enough that Tannehill is not a good quarterback, but at least guys like Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston throw a ton of passes. Tannehill averages fewer than 30 pass attempts per game. There’s just no volume. Tannehill completed 24 throws last week, which is just the third time this season he’s completed more than 17 passes in a single game. The matchup is great against the hapless 49ers defense, but the Dolphins may run the ball 35-plus times. DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills are way too inconsistent to trust either.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi is still a bad, bad man. He had a down week last week mostly because he didn’t find the end zone. That will not be the norm and shouldn’t be the case this week against the NFL’s worst rushing defense at 179.5 yards per game allowed. It’s truly an astonishing figure. Ajayi is going to crack triple digits and should be good for at least one score in a game the Dolphins plan to control on the ground. He’s still averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the season. The 49ers have no chance.

Value Meter:
RB1: Jay Ajayi (high end)
WR3: Jarvis Landry (PPR only)
Bench: DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Ryan Tannehill

Prediction: Dolphins 23, 49ers 17

Patriots @ Jets - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady does not like when he doesn’t throw a touchdown pass. So last week he threw four of them. There’s no need to discuss Brady. He’s the No.1 play at QB every week. The Jets passing defense is awful. Brady is going to Brady. Last week, Julian Edelman saw 17 targets. Now that’s more like it. He scored, along with Malcolm Mitchell, James White, and Danny Amendola. Of those four, Edelman is the only one you need to start. Rob Gronkowski was absent last week and it appears as if he’s going to miss this week’s contest as well. It likely means more for the running backs on check downs than it does for anyone else. Last week without Gronk, Martellus Bennett saw all of two targets. His usage is not linked to Gronk’s health. Tom Brady missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but I’m not worried. He will be out there on Sunday.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis returned, but is clearly being eased into action. He is not taking James White’s job. That is going to be a split and really annoying for fantasy owners. LeGarrette Blount did what everyone does against the 49ers and rushed for over 100 yards. Brady hogged all the touchdowns, but even against the Jets elite run defense, Blount should get a goal line carry or three. The Patriots should score a lot of points in this one so don’t be afraid to deploy Blount as usual. Just don’t expect lofty yardage totals against a team allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tom Brady (#1)
RB2: LeGarrette Blount (high end)
WR2: Julian Edelman (I think he’s back)
TE1: Rob Gronkowski (if he plays)
Bench: Malcolm Mitchell, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Dion Lewis, James White

Passing Game Thoughts: I think we all remember the last time the Jets played the Patriots around this time of year. It was Thanksgiving 2012. It was the infamous butt-fumble. While much has changed since then, the Patriots dominance has not. For some reason, the Jets are going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick this week because apparently their coaching staff has no desire in seeing what they have in Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg. Fitzpatrick hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game since the first week of the season. That’s bad news for Jets receivers, of whom you want no part of. Quincy Enunwa has caught exactly one ball each of the last two games. You can drop him. Brandon Marshall is officially a WR4 and still falling. He has two touchdowns on the season and 70 yards or fewer in all but three games. He was last seen catching four balls for fifteen yards. The Patriots defense has been mediocre on the season, but is an elite play because of the favorable matchup.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Running Game Thoughts: The lone bright spot for the Jets has been Matt Forte. Aside from that four game stretch weeks 3-6, Forte has been a rock solid RB1. Over his last four games, he’s averaging over 90 yards rushing and a touchdown. The Patriots are also average against the run. They’re an average defense. Forte is going to be used heavily as the Jets try to avoid having Fitzpatrick throw and also to keep Tom Brady off the field. Bilal Powell could have flex value as the passing down back if this game gets out of hand, but that’s a hard thing to forecast. Trust Forte, but no one else.

Value Meter:
RB1: Matt Forte (low end)
Bench: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa, Bilal Powell

Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 13

Packers @ Eagles - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: That’s five straight with at least three touchdowns for the garbage time King in the North. The Packers descent to being one of the worst teams in football has been a boon for Rodgers from a fantasy standpoint. Constantly trailing, Rodgers is always throwing, having attempted an average of 45.8 passes over his last five games. Jordy Nelson has not scored in four straight and even Jared Cook got invited to the party last week. He saw a team high eleven targets, catching six for 105 yards and a score. But we’ve seen this from Jared Cook before. A huge game that overshadows the fact that he still makes unfathomable drops and then disappears the next week. He needs to do it again before we even consider trusting him. Davante Adams remains the second option in this passing game as Randall Cobb has caught nine passes over his last three games combined. In their last six games, the leading passer in an Eagles game has been the opposing quarterback. That streak will extend to seven this week as the Eagles once strong pass defense has fallen apart. This one should be high scoring so it’s all systems go for your Packers.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Running Game Thoughts: Well…not all of your Packers. If James Starks does not manage to bumble his way into the end zone, he is completely useless. He’s rushed for 25, 33, and 33 yards over his last three games. He does have at least three receptions in those contests, but that’s not enough to offset the lack of yardage. Without a touchdown, you’re looking at single digit fantasy point totals. The Eagles allow 4.5 yards per carry, but have only allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season. Starks has zero rushing touchdowns on the season. If he gets in, it will likely be through the air, but that’s not something I’d be willing to bank on.

Value Meter:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers (mid-range)
WR1: Jordy Nelson
WR3: Davante Adams
Flex: James Starks
Bench: Randall Cobb, Jared Cook

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember when the Cowboys played the Eagles and the big story line was all about which rookie QB is better? Carson Wentz threw seven touchdowns against just one interception over his first four games. He has thrown four touchdowns against six interceptions in the six games since. For lack of a more complex analysis – he’s not very good. At least he’s learned who his best receiver is – Jordan Matthews. After seeing fewer than ten targets in every game since Week 2, Matthews has seen double digit targets in each of the last four games. He’s produced respectable lines, but has been held out of the end zone for his last three. Only three teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Packers. This is the week for JMatt…we think. For reasons I’ll never fully understand, Doug Pederson has insisted on having Nelson Agholor on the field for more than zero snaps and Carson Wentz throws him passes. Dorial Green-Beckham also should never see eleven targets in a game like he did last week. Zach Ertz, on the other hand, is a little more justifiable. He finally scored last week, too. The bad news is he turned his eleven targets into just 35 yards. That’s Dennis Pitta levels of inefficiency. Regardless, the Packers bleed points to opposing passing games so Ertz and Matthews are strong plays this week.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

Running Game Thoughts: Let’s all take a step back, breathe in and out, and repeat together: “I will not listen to Doug Pederson.” Say it one more time: “I will not listen to Doug Pederson.” There, much better. The Eagles’ head coach might as well have been the subject of Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2008 spy thriller, Body of Lies, because that’s what he’s been. One week it’s Ryan Mathews. The next week it’s Darren Sproles. But it’s never who Pederson says it is. Last week, Mathews sprained his MCL and Sproles broke a rib. Neither practiced on Wednesday, but Sproles returned to practice Thursday. I would expect Mathews to miss and Sproles to play, but how effectively remains to be seen. One would think Wendell Smallwood would be the primary runner with Mathews and Sproles out/limited, but I would not put it past Pederson to feature Kenjon Barner just to mess with us. The sad part is that I really like whatever Eagles back is the main guy this week. I just don’t know who it will be. My guess is Smallwood based upon his usage last week after Mathews went down. He was moderately effective on the ground against a tough Seattle defense and utilized in the short passing game. He could have a nice volume based day against a Packers defense that’s in shambles. Just make sure Mathews is inactive before deploying Smallwood and also prepare yourself for him to suddenly vanish because the Eagles are so clever.

Value Meter:
WR2: Jordan Matthews
RB2: Wendell Smallwood (whoever it ends up being)
TE1: Zach Ertz (mid-range)
Flex: Darren Sproles
Bench: Dorial Green-Beckham, Ryan Mathews

Prediction: Eagles 28, Packers 24

Panthers @ Raiders - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The defending NFL Most Valuable Player has been a major disappointment for fantasy owners this season. Not only are his 11 passing touchdowns a horrible number for this point in the season, but his lack of rushing has surprisingly made him a player worth benching in certain situations. A matchup against the Raiders in Week 12 should not be one of those situations, however. While Oakland has been doing fairly well at slowing down opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, it’s worth noting that they’ve been doing it against some of the league’s worst pass offenses, including Houston, Denver and Kansas City. Against a more formidable passing attack, look for the Raiders defense to come back to Earth in what could be a shootout. Tight end Greg Olsen could be ranked as high as the top player at his position given the Raiders’ recent struggles against the position including allowing 10 receptions to Houston’s tight ends this past week. Meanwhile, Kelvin Benjamin is a solid WR2 in this contest with upside to be a WR1.

OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

Running Game Thoughts: He’s touching the ball at a good enough rate that fantasy production should come eventually, but Jonathan Stewart really hasn’t been much of a fantasy asset in recent weeks. He’s averaging under 2.5 yards per carry over his past three games. The Raiders have given up fewer than 4.0 yards per carry over their past four games, so this doesn’t seem like a great opportunity for Stewart to turn things around. If he were a bit more involved in the passing game, Stewart could give his fantasy owners a bit higher of a floor, but right now he’s tough to trust as anything more than a Flex play in PPR formats and a low-end RB2 in Non-PPR formats.

Value Meter:
QB1: Cam Newton
RB2: Jonathan Stewart
WR2: Kelvin Benjamin
TE1: Greg Olsen
Bench: Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn Jr.

Passing Game Thoughts: Oakland quarterback Derek Carr continues to produce MVP-caliber numbers and a matchup against the 25th-ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks would seem to be another great opportunity for him to improve upon his already stellar numbers. The Panthers defense has given up at least one passing touchdown in all but one game this season which certainly bodes well for the Raiders’ top two options, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Crabtree was surprisingly held in check this past week against the Texans, but that should not keep him out of fantasy lineups in this premiere matchup. It’s very possible that both Raiders receivers could find their way into the end zone this week and they’re both viable WR1’s or at least high-end WR2’s.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

Running Game Thoughts: The Oakland backfield continues to be a complete crapshoot on a week to week basis. It’s mostly been Latavius Murray who’s been the team’s primary ball carrier, but with carries going to as many as four other backs, the fantasy production can be unpredictable. The uncertainty in touches, particularly near the goal line, is bad enough, but a matchup against the Panthers is unlikely to provide great fantasy production for Murray owners. There are situations where Murray is going to have to be in fantasy lineups, but he isn’t likely to produce great numbers.

Value Meter:
QB1: Derek Carr
WR1: Amari Cooper
WR1: Michael Crabtree
Flex: Latavius Murray
Bench: Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts, Clive Walford

Prediction: Raiders 27, Panthers 23

Chiefs @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: There are some situations where Alex Smith could be a viable fantasy option, but a game on the road against the Broncos and their No. 1 fantasy defense against the pass is certainly not one of those times. The Broncos have allowed just two quarterbacks – Philip Rivers and Drew Brees – to pass for multiple touchdowns against them this season. With Smith not running the ball anywhere near as much as he had in previous years, he is an easy player to pass on this week in all formats. Tight end Travis Kelce, who caught seven passes for a season-high 108 yards this past week, is the only player in this passing game who should be considered in this extremely difficult matchup.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Running Game Thoughts: As great as the Broncos have been against opposing passing games this season, they’ve been almost equally bad against the run. Aside from the awful Browns and 49ers, no team has given up more rushing yards this season than the Broncos. That should be music to the ears of fantasy owners who roster Spencer Ware. Ware has struggled a bit over his past two contests since returning from injury, but this is the kind of matchup that could allow him to get back into the RB1 conversation.

Value Meter:
RB1: Spencer Ware
TE1: Travis Kelce
Bench: Alex Smith, Charcandrick West, Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill

Passing Game Thoughts: He’s still not a fantasy option himself, but Trevor Siemian is coming off of a two-game stretch of throwing multiple touchdowns for the first time in his young career. That’s nothing special for most passing games, but for a Denver offense that has severely struggled with passing the ball this season, that’s a huge improvement. Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are the only two players in this Denver passing game who should be looked at for fantasy purposes at the moment, but neither player has topped 100 receiving yards since both did so in Week 3. Both receivers are solid WR2’s given their high usage in the Denver offense, but their upside is relatively limited, especially a Kansas City secondary that hasn’t allowed more than one touchdown to an opposing team’s wide receivers since Week 7 against the Saints.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

Running Game Thoughts: His final numbers weren’t great, but Devontae Booker is coming off of a game where he touched the ball 26 times. It hasn’t just been one week of high usage, either. Booker has touched the ball an average of 20 times per game over his past four contests since taking over as the Broncos’ primary running back. That type of usage is tough to come by in today’s NFL, which means that he’ll still be an RB2 this week, but this matchup against a very good Kansas City run defense is enough to cause some concern. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since all the way back in Week 4 and they’ve given up an average of just 81 rushing yards over that stretch.

Value Meter:
RB2: Devontae Booker
WR2: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders
Bench: Trevor Siemian, Virgil Green

Prediction: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17