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Inside the Matchup
Week 1
9/8/16; Updated: 9/9/16

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Jake Gordon



CAR @ DEN | SD @ KC | MIA @ SEA | NE @ ARI

SF @ LA | GB @ JAX | CHI @ HOU | TB @ ATL

OAK @ NO | DET @ IND | MIN @ TEN | CIN @ NYJ

CLE @ PHI | NYG @ DAL | PIT @ WAS | BUF @ BAL


Notes:
- Fantasy points allowed rankings are from 2015. Rankings for 2016 will be used beginning next week.
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top 8)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom 8)

Panthers @ Broncos - (Caron)

Carolina PanthersDEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Passing Game Thoughts: The reigning NFL MVP returns for another season in Carolina and he’ll be excited to have his top target from two seasons ago, Kelvin Benjamin, back on the field. Benjamin slates to be the team’s top receiver in the long term, but is rumored to be on a snap count “around 35” for Week 1. Fellow wideouts Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn Jr. are expected to see the most snaps this week, but a very tough matchup against the secondary that gave up the fewest points to fantasy receivers last season should force these Panthers wideouts to be on the bench for most fantasy owners. Greg Olsen, however, remains a must-start at the tight end position. He caught just four of his nine targets for 41 yards against these Broncos in Super Bowl 50, but he’s by far the team’s most reliable receiver. Newton (18-41, 265 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT) struggled against the Broncos in the final game of 2015, but he was the top quarterback selected in most fantasy drafts and is likely a must-start regardless of matchup this early in the season.

Running Game Thoughts: He’s not exciting, but where Jonathan Stewart lacks in pizazz, he makes up for in consistency. Stewart rushed for over 50 yards in every regular season start he had in 2015 and finished with double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) in seven of his final nine starts. He did, however, struggle in the Super Bowl where he rushed for just 29 yards on 12 carries, including a touchdown. The Broncos defense did lose some pieces in the offseason, particularly in run support, but Stewart’s lack of usage in the passing game makes him a weak RB2 in Week 1, especially in PPR formats.

Value Meter:
QB1: Cam Newton
RB2: Jonathan Stewart (low-end)
WR3: Kelvin Benjamin
Flexible: Ted Ginn Jr.
TE1: Greg Olsen
Bench: Devin Funchess, Philly Brown, Mike Tolbert

Denver BroncosCAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

Passing Game Thoughts: The defending Super Bowl champions will turn to a new quarterback, Trevor Siemian, to lead them in 2016. He won’t have it easy right out of the gate as he’ll be up against a Panthers defense that was stout against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the ninth-fewest points to the position in 2015. Of course, the Panthers lost one of the league’s premier cornerbacks in Josh Norman this offseason, which should give owners of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas some comfort. Thomas was held to just one reception for 8 yards in the Super Bowl despite being targeted six times with Norman shadowing him much of the game. Be careful with both Sanders and Thomas as the Broncos will look to control the game with their defense and running game.

Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson burned a lot of fantasy owners in 2015, but could be in line to have a productive season now that expectations have been tempered. Anderson was given a whopping 23 of the Broncos 28 total carries in the Super Bowl, which he took for 90 yards and a score against this Panthers defense. Without Ronnie Hillman taking snaps, Anderson should be a much more reliable option and could creep up into the RB1 conversation even in this reasonably difficult matchup. Rookie Devontae Booker should have a role but it remains to be seen how much he’ll eat into Anderson’s workload. A 35 percent share is likely Booker’s ceiling.

Value Meter:
RB2: C.J. Anderson
WR2: Demaryius Thomas
WR3: Emmanuel Sanders
TE2: Virgil Green
Bench: Trevor Siemian, Devontae Booker, Bennie Fowler (elbow-out)

Prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 20 ^ Top

Chargers @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Kansas City Chiefs KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

Passing Game Thoughts: All eyes will be on wide receiver Keenan Allen who is making his return after missing the second half of the 2015 season with a lacerated kidney. Allen, who was one of the NFL’s most productive receivers prior to his injury, will be a welcome addition to the Chargers passing game which struggled against the Chiefs a season ago. Rivers had just two games where he didn’t throw a touchdown pass in 2015 – his opponents in those games? The Kansas City Chiefs and – you guessed it – the Kansas City Chiefs. Rivers is a mid-level QB2 in this matchup at best. Tight end Antonio Gates could see a good number of targets in this game, especially if the Chiefs focus their attention on Allen. For his career, Gates is averaging 10.1 FPts per game against the Chiefs.

Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon was one of the most disappointing fantasy players in 2015, partially due to his own poor play, but largely due to him running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He’ll look to turn things around in Week 1, but he’s going to be up against one of the NFL’s stingiest run defenses, which allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs on the season. This is probably not the time to risk putting Gordon in your lineup unless you’re desperate. Pass-catching specialist Danny Woodhead led all NFL running backs in receptions in 2015, but was practically a non-factor in the two games these teams played a season ago, making just four receptions and rushing for 12 total yards. Certainly we should expect more than that from Woodhead, but the Chiefs appear to have the recipe to slow him down. He’s a low-end Flex option this week even in PPR formats.

Value Meter:
QB2: Philip Rivers
WR2: Keenan Allen
Flexible: Danny Woodhead (PPR only), Melvin Gordon
TE1: Antonio Gates (low-end)
Bench: Travis Benjamin

San Diego Chargers SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Passing Game Thoughts: Steady and solid, Alex Smith is a great fit for the Kansas City offense. However, that doesn’t necessarily make him a great fantasy option, at least in standard leagues with only one starting QB per team. The San Diego defense held Smith to the two lowest fantasy scores he produced in 2015 (17.6, 16.0). Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was also held in check against the Chargers as he did not score and was held to just nine catches over two games. The only other fantasy-relevant player in this passing game, tight end Travis Kelce, struggled against the Chargers (8-64 in two games) but is still likely a must-start for most fantasy teams given his average draft position.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the most important injury situations to watch this week will be that of running back Jamaal Charles. Charles is still recovering from the ACL injury which ended his 2015 season and has been limited in practice all week and is expected to be listed as Doubtful. The real player to watch is Spencer Ware who immediately catapults to being a low-end RB1 if Charles does not play. Ware will get enough touches to at least be a decent RB2 against a Chargers defense that he scored twice against in 2015. Charcandrick West (elbow) also figures to be involved, but his upside is very limited.

Value Meter:
QB2: Alex Smith
RB1: Spencer Ware (low-end)
WR2: Jeremy Maclin
TE1: Travis Kelce
Bench: Charcandrick West, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, Knile Davis

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 17 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Seahawks - (Caron)

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Passing Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners had high aspirations for Ryan Tannehill a season ago, but he finished as the 15th-ranked quarterback – making him a mid-range QB2. Asking for even that type of production might be a lot this week as he goes up against the Legion of Boom in Seattle, who finished as the second-best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks in 2015. While Jarvis Landry will likely see a lot of Richard Sherman, the Seahawks don’t typically force their star corner to follow the opposing No. 1 wide receiver, especially in the slot, so there is some hope Landry will do enough to be a respectable WR2 in PPR formats. The second wide receiver spot is something to watch in this game as Kenny Stills has been impressive this preseason while second-year receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring) is fighting through an injury and might not suit up. Neither player should be in fantasy lineups if Parker does play, but Stills could be a sneaky Flex play if Parker sits.

Running Game Thoughts: Now listed as the starter, veteran running back Arian Foster once again enters the fantasy conversation, this time for a new team in Miami. Foster has typically been a very productive player when healthy, but without an abundance of game film in this offense, it’s hard to trust him as anything more than a low-end RB2 against this elite Seattle defense. Second-year back Jay Ajayi once again lost the job to a veteran and has to be considered nothing more than a handcuff for the time being. A valuable handcuff, given Foster’s injury history, but a handcuff nonetheless.

Value Meter:
RB2: Arian Foster
WR2: Jarvis Landry
Flexible: Kenny Stills (if Parker sits)
Bench: Ryan Tannehill, DeVante Parker, Jay Ajayi, Jordan Cameron

Seattle Seahawks MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Passing Game Thoughts: A breakout fantasy season for both quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Doug Baldwin has expectations skyrocketing for this Seattle passing game. They’ll have an opportunity to get things going against a middle-of-the-road Miami defense in Week 1, in the comfort of CenturyLink Field. Baldwin has firmly established himself as Wilson’s top target, but that doesn’t mean he’s the only player who will be catching passes in the offense. Second-year wideout Tyler Lockett and veteran Jermaine Kearse should both have opportunities, but they’re both difficult to trust this early in the season. Meanwhile, tight end Jimmy Graham (knee) might be the most interesting player to watch in this game as he is expected to make his first start since a season-ending injury in Week 12 of the 2015 season. Graham’s raw size is good enough to make him one of the elite players at his position, but it might be wise to keep him on the bench this week while we get an idea of what he has in the tank.

Running Game Thoughts: The retirement of Marshawn Lynch means changes in the Seattle backfield. Most believed that it would be Thomas Rawls starting in Week 1, but his recovery from an ankle injury and now an undisclosed illness has kept Rawls out of practice for much of the week and those factors are now threatening his playing time. Christine Michael is now expected to start and he will likely get the majority of early-down snaps at running back in what could be an exceptional matchup. The Dolphins were the league’s worst fantasy defense against opposing running backs in 2015 and whoever gets the touches in this backfield could provide some surprisingly good fantasy production.

Value Meter:
QB1: Russell Wilson
RB2: Christine Michael (if Rawls sits)
WR2: Doug Baldwin
Flexible: Tyler Lockett
Bench: Thomas Rawls, Jermaine Kearse, Jimmy Graham

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Dolphins 17 ^ Top

Patriots @ Cardinals - (Caron)

New England Patriots ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady’s suspension means that we’ll get our first chance to see what might be the future of the franchise, Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo himself is not much of a fantasy option but can he get the ball to the Patriots’ top two targets, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman? Gronkowski’s raw physicality makes him arguably the top tight end every week no matter who is throwing him the ball, but Edelman is another story. Edelman typically does his damage on timing routes and precision passing from Brady. Even the slightest mistakes can lead to bad results for Edelman, which makes him a risky play as even a WR2 this week. No other Patriots receivers are in fantasy consideration at this time. Gronkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury and reportedly missed the team flight to Arizona on Friday so make sure to check his availability on Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: The always murky New England backfield is even worse than usual heading into 2016 as we still don’t have a firm grasp on what the team is planning to do now that Dion Lewis is out for the majority of the season. It’s believed that LeGarrette Blount will once again take over the early-down duties and could be in line for a heavy workload if the Patriots attempt to control the clock and avoid getting into an offensive shootout with Garoppolo behind center. If the Patriots do fall behind we might see more of James White, who has shown to be a decent receiver out of the backfield with high efficiency ratings. That could give him some value in deep PPR formats.

Value Meter:
WR2: Julian Edelman
Flexible: LeGarrette Blount, James White (PPR only)
TE1: Rob Gronkowski (hamstring)
Bench: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Bolden, Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola

Arizona Cardinals NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

Passing Game Thoughts: One of the NFL’s most prolific passing games will be back at it again in Week 1 as Carson Palmer and the Cardinals look to build on the huge season they had in 2015. All three of Arizona’s top receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown have fantasy value in this system with Fitzgerald being best utilized in PPR formats, Floyd in touchdown-heavy scoring formats and Brown being a deep threat who can go off at any time. The Patriots allowed nearly 3,000 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in 2015 and it would not at all be surprising to see Palmer finish as a QB1 with a least two of his receivers finishing as WR2’s or above in this game.

Running Game Thoughts: Arguably the top fantasy running back on the board heading into the 2016 season, David Johnson will have a chance to get his season going in the right direction a big game against the Patriots. The loss of Brady bodes well for opposing running games who would typically be fighting from behind in the second half but now have a better chance to be running out the clock in the 4th quarter against Garoppolo. Johnson is also one of the best receiving backs in the league, allowing him to play on all three downs if needed. The Cardinals are six point Vegas favorites at home meaning we could see a heavy dose of David Johnson to close things out, which should lead to plenty of fantasy production.

Value Meter:
QB1: Carson Palmer
RB1: David Johnson
WR2: Michael Floyd
WR3: Larry Fitzgerald
Flexible: John Brown
Bench: Chris Johnson, J.J. Nelson, Darren Fells

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Patriots 20 ^ Top

Rams @ 49ers - (Caron)

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Passing Game Thoughts: While the coaching staff in Los Angeles seems to believe that Case Keenum is fully equipped to lead their franchise to the playoffs, fantasy owners should not have those same expectations for this journeyman. Keenum arguably played the best of any of the Rams’ quarterbacks a season ago, but that still meant that he provided double-digit fantasy production in just one game. Keenum shouldn’t even be started in two-QB formats and it’s tough to trust any of his receiving options either. Kenny Britt saw a slight uptick in production who saw three of his five best fantasy days of the season during Keenum’s time behind center. Still, Britt has to be benched unless you’re already in complete desperation mode in Week 1. The only player who should be considered for fantasy purposes is Tavon Austin who is admittedly hit-or-miss, but has been talked up repeatedly by the coaching staff and even recently inked a new big-money deal. Austin is capable of both receptions and touches out of the backfield but his volatility restricts him to a flex option.

Running Game Thoughts: What Case Keenum lacks in fantasy production he makes up for with clean, crisp handoffs to one of the league’s top young fantasy studs, running back Todd Gurley. Gurley scored five touchdowns in the four games he played with Keenum as the starter in 2015 and while the Rams offense doesn’t project to post huge numbers this season, when they do score, it’s likely to be with their talented young tailback. Gurley trampled the 49ers defense to the tune of 133 yards and a touchdown in his only start against them as a rookie and he’s one of the most likely backs in the league to touch the ball 20 times in Week 1, making him a rock solid RB1 fantasy option.

Value Meter:
RB1: Todd Gurley
Flexible: Tavon Austin
Bench: Case Keenum, Benny Cunningham, Kenny Britt, Lance Kendricks

San Francisco 49ers LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Passing Game Thoughts: A disappointing first season in San Francisco has Torrey Smith falling off the radar in most fantasy circles, but the lack of competition at wide receiver for the 49ers means that he will likely be the team’s top option now that Anquan Boldin is in Detroit. A new offense under head coach Chip Kelly might be to Smith’s liking. If nothing else, the high number of snaps should lead to more opportunities, which he will need against the stingy Los Angeles secondary. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert could see lots of pressure from the punishing Los Angeles pass rush, which really limits his already low upside, making him a non-factor in most formats.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s never good to be fighting off injury before you even take a snap in the regular season, but the league’s concussion protocol had held Hyde out of practice for most of the week. However, Hyde did practice fully on Thursday which should clear the path for him to take the lion’s share of the workload in Week 1 against a Los Angeles run defense that conceded over 1,500 rushing yards to opposing running backs in 2015. The new up-tempo Chip Kelly offense should lead to even more opportunities for Hyde, but we’ve seen backs like DeMarco Murray simply not be able to adapt to the system and it remains to be seen whether or not Hyde is built to perform in this offense. For now, Hyde should be considered a solid RB2 with RB1 upside in this matchup.

Value Meter:
RB2: Carlos Hyde
Flexible: Torrey Smith
Bench: Blaine Gabbert, Shaun Draughn, Quinton Patton, Vance McDonald

Prediction: Rams 20, 49ers 17 ^ Top

Packers at Jaguars - (Gordon)

Green Bay Packers JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Passing Game Thoughts: There are plenty of good vibes surrounding the Green Bay passing attack these days and a match up against the Jags continues the excitement leading into the opening week of the year. The Jags can’t be much worse versus the pass after allowing the fourth most passing yards per game last season. $125 million free agent dollars and a few high draft choices later suggest they should be a far better squad in 2016. It will take more than one off-season makeover for Jacksonville’s new defensive unit to gel well enough to hold up against an Aaron Rodgers led offense for four quarters. Jordy Nelson wasn’t even listed on Wednesday’s injury report and Randall Cobb is back in his comfort zone so start them both with confidence. Further down the depth chart Davante Adams’ development has stalled to the point Jared Abbrederis is challenging him for playing time. Richard Rodgers enters the year ahead of Jared Cook on the depth chart but both players are expected to receive playing time. Fantasy owners may be better off just watching how the targets are split among the TEs before plugging them into their lineups.

Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of how you feel about Eddie Lacy holding up over the course of this season, he enters Week 1 healthy and has a positive match up. A (slightly) trimmer Lacy seems to have rediscovered his burst he displayed during his first two years in the league that made him a top five RB. The offense shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball against Jacksonville’s remade squad. This should translate into multiple trips to the red-zone where their 234-pound bowling ball is one of the better bets to find pay dirt. Green Bay knows conditioning and health are the biggest obstacles with their primary running back so expect James Starks to get a few series of work in each half as well as some snaps in passing situations. Until we get a chance to see the split in carries, however, Starks is too risky to count on for fantasy purposes.

Value Meter:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers
RB1: Eddie Lacy
WR1: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb
Bench: James Starks, Davante Adams, Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers

Jacksonville JaguarsGB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles is primed to put up a quality fantasy outing against Green Bay this weekend. He is surrounded by talented pass catchers and the scoreboard could dictate a heavy dose of passing attempts. Allen Robinson is a quality deep threat and red zone target squaring off against a secondary that surrendered 14 pass plays over 40 yards last season (tied for third most in the NFL). Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas will be a challenge to cover underneath. In fact, Thomas has posted 100-plus yards receiving with multiple touchdown catches in his last two Week 1 outings (he was hurt for opening day in 2015). If Green Bay handles all of the receivers, Bortles can still utilize T.Y. Yeldon out of the backfield.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory is nursing a calf injury but appears likely to play against Green Bay this weekend. Even though he is locked into a committee with T.J. Yeldon, Ivory is a beast near the goaline and has never finished a season averaging fewer than four yards per carry so he doesn’t need volume to put up respectable numbers. If the game becomes a true shootout or a blowout, T.Y. Yeldon may see more reps in the Jacksonville backfield. He should garner close to half of the carries and offers upside as a receiver making him a stronger RB3 play in those pesky PPR leagues.

Value Meter:
QB1: Blake Bortles
RB3: Chris Ivory, T.Y. Yeldon (PPR)
WR1: Allen Robinson
Flexible: T.J. Yeldon (Standard), Allen Hurns
TE1: Julius Thomas
Bench: Denard Robinson

Prediction: Packers 26, Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Bears at Texans - (Gordon)

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bears’ offensive line has lost Center Hronissu Grasu (knee) for the season and is expected to start Guard Josh Sitton, whom the team signed this week and a rookie in Cody Whitehair. The lack of cohesion going up against one of the elite pass rushes in the league is a daunting challenge to weigh if you own any part of the Bears’ passing game. Although J.J. Watt will be on a snap count, only four teams had more sacks than the Texans during the 2015 regular season. New OC Dowell Loggains will likely opt to keep things as simple as possible by using quick throws to help keep his quarterback upright. Additionally, the Bears will probably be using the tight end position more as a blocker than a receiver in this game. Zach Miller will certainly get a few looks but he won’t be racking up yards down the field. Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White are the types of big physical receivers needed to win contested balls against this defense. Jeffery might not grab every sidewinder thrown in his direction but his expected target load and red zone abilities make him a solid WR2 this week. After missing his entire rookie season, Kevin White is a bit of a crapshoot as a WR4/Flex in a tough match up. Eddie Royal could be busy this week working from the slot and could be a sneaky Flex option in deep PPR formats. Outside of Jeffery, I’d suggest waiting a week for this passing offense to iron out the offensive line before inserting them into your fantasy lineup.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Bears are able to win this game they will need a big performance out of Jeremy Langford and his stable mates. As noted above, the conditions are not ideal for Chicago converting many third and longs. Leaning on the rushing attack is the only way the Bears can hope to move the ball down field, grind away some clock and keep the game close. Unfortunately, Houston’s defense ranked tenth in rushing yards allowed per game during the 2015 season and there isn’t any reason to expect a drop off. There have been rumblings over a potential RBBC in Chicago so it will be worth watching how the carries are divided in the first week of action. Langford’s fantasy value has been up and down throughout the preseason but he represents the best option for the Bears and fantasy owners in Week 1. He proved last season that he is not only capable of being the lead runner of this backfield but that he can be a workhorse if called upon to do so. Ka’Deem Carey looks like a nice backup who can come in for short stints and provide a little extra energy but he is only likely to see a handful of carries this weekend. Rookie Jordan Howard comes into this game on the heels of a solid preseason. However, the buzz regarding Howard taking over this backfield is premature. With continuity already an issue along the offensive line, I can’t imagine a scenario where John Fox would want to throw a rookie running back into the fire for the Texans home opener.

Value Meter:
QB2: Jay Cutler
RB3: Jeremy Langford
WR2: Alshon Jeffery
Flexible: Eddie Royal (PPR only)
TE2: Zach Miller
Bench: Kevin White, Eddie Royal

Houston TexansCHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Passing Game Thoughts: This could get ugly rather quickly if the Bears can’t get after Brock Osweiler. Houston packs plenty of explosiveness and speed in the passing game that will test a Bears unit that is still suffering through the pains of transitioning to a 3-4 base scheme. Chicago’s best cornerback, Kyle Fuller, is nursing a knee injury and isn’t expected to play. Nobody in the Bears’ defensive back field can match up with DeAndre Hopkins so expect a heavy dose of bracket coverage aimed at containing the damage. Will Fuller is ahead of schedule, already overtaking Jaelen Strong on the depth chart. Fuller would be a full blown flex option right out of the gates, but the Texans may not need to throw the ball much in the second half so he remains a WR4 this week. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz opens the year as the starter but the Texans seldom use the tight end in the passing game. If the Bears linebackers overplay the run, Osweiler should have a green light to send the ball down field to either of his jets on the outside. Low expected passing attempts keep Osweiler’s fantasy ceiling down this week, but he should not have a problem finding the end zone in his Texans debut.

Running Game Thoughts: Chicago’s off-season improvements to their linebacking corps were focused on improving a run defense that was among the worst in the league in 2015. They will surely be tested against a Houston offense that is ready to unleash Lamar Miller. Houston will be without 2016 first round pick Nick Martin (ankle) at Center but still figure to be an effective unit with backup Greg Mancz getting the job done during the preseason. As the focal point of Houston’s offense, Miller should see plenty of work right of the gate as a runner and receiver making him one of the most likely running backs to eclipse 100 total yards in Week 1. Additionally, his solid work inside the red zone during the preseason should ease any fears of Alfred Blue becoming a TD vulture in this game. Blue finds himself in a similar role as last season except the player he is backing up isn’t nearly the injury risk so he carries only handcuff value in the deepest of formats.

Value Meter:
QB2: Brock Osweiler
RB1: Lamar Miller
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
Flexible: Will Fuller
Bench: Alfred Blue, Jaelen Strong, Braxton Miller, C.J. Fiedorowicz

Prediction: Texans 28, Bears 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Falcons - (Gordon)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston continues to look more comfortable working in this offense and his fantasy value is trending upward coming into the year. Expectations are running higher than ever for Mike Evans despite his inconsistent level of production in recent years. With little in the way of competition as the team’s top receiving threat, Evans will be an elite source of targets facing off against the Falcons’ secondary. That attention may set up Vincent Jackson to have one of his most productive games of the year in Week 1. Behavioral issues in the preseason seem to have been overcome as the team has anointed Austin Seferian-Jenkins the co-starting tight end. ASJ should add another dimension to the offense near the goal that was not present most of last season. He and Charles Sims will be part of the plan to compensate for the lack of quality depth at the receiver position.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay will lean on its rushing attack in this match up with Doug Martin seeing about 80-percent of the workload. The sheer size of his quarterback and the receivers on the outside combined with his injury history will prevent Martin from being a lock to score but his chances are more favorable against Atlanta. After all, the Falcons catered to opposing RBs last season by allowing a whopping twenty rushing touchdowns (tied for most in the NFL). Be careful not to overlook Charles Sims this week. There is potential for double-digit touches here making him a RB3/Flex option in PPR formats.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jameis Winston
RB1: Doug Martin
WR1: Mike Evans
Flexible: Vincent Jackson, Charles Sims (PPR only)
TE1: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Bench: Cecil Shorts

Atlanta FalconsTB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Passing Game Thoughts: On average, Matt Ryan was QB20 during drafts this season so chances are you have already decided to keep Ryan on your bench this week. However, the holes on Atlanta’s defense against the emerging Tampa offense will likely force Atlanta into a familiar trend of throwing the ball more than they had hoped. When playing the Bucs at home over the past two seasons, Matt Ryan has produced like a starting caliber fantasy quarterback by posting a nearly flawless two-game total of 58 of 69 pass attempts for 683 yards and five scores against only one interception. The offense also added one of the league’s most steady complementary receivers in Mohamed Sanu. The Bucs promoted Dirk Koetter (Ryan’s former OC) to be their Head Coach and added some talent in the secondary but they are not going to lock down All-Pro Julio Jones and must still respect the run. It may be difficult to sit the guy you drafted to be your team’s starter in the first week of the year but there are a number of poor matchups for QBs this week and Ryan may be the better play.

Running Game Thoughts: During last year’s run to the top of the fantasy running back rankings, Devonta Freeman was unable to find the end zone against Tampa Bay (TB was one of only three opponents to hold Freeman without a touchdown in 2015). Atlanta may not afford their primary rusher to garner as many looks in the passing attack to buoy his fantasy totals so his output this week may fall closer to that of a RB2 when the dust settles in this divisional game. Additionally, the coaching staff will also look to get Tevin Coleman involved but until there is a clear effort to make this a truer two-man RBBC, any fantasy owner plugging him into their Flex position this week is rolling the dice.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan
RB1: Devonta Freeman (low end)
WR1: Julio Jones
Flexible: Mohamed Sanu
Bench: Tevin Coleman, Justin Hardy, Austin Hooper

Prediction: Falcons 28, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Saints - (Gordon)

Oakland Raiders NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Passing Game Thoughts: What’s not to like? New Orleans gave up 45 passing touchdowns a year ago (worst in the NFL) and 245 passing yards per game (second worst in the NFL). Guess which team gave up the second most points per game during the preseason? You guessed it, the Saints! This scenario would seemingly make just about any NFL quarterback look good but Carr went from being mediocre as a rookie tossing only one 300-yard passing game to being a rising star after recording six such games in 2015. The third year signal caller has two great targets in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree split out wide. This could be the first great shootout of the year so get all of the starters into your lineups. A third round pick out of Miami a year ago, Walford has taken control of the pass-catching tight end role in the offense and should flirt with TE1 production to open the year.

Running Game Thoughts: Oakland shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the ball on the ground in this contest. The Saints were second to last in rushing yards allowed a year ago and the Raiders offensive line is slated to be one of the better units in the league. Latavius Murray has been labeled a volume dependent running back but he only averaged 16 carries per game over the first six weeks in 2015. Fantasy owners should be able to count on at least that many carries in this game. The addition of rookie DeAndre Washington will allow the team to keep Murray fresh but he may not be asked to do much in his pro debut.

Value Meter:
QB1: Derek Carr
RB1: Latavius Murray
WR1: Amari Cooper
Flexible: Michael Crabtree
TE2: Clive Walford (high end)
Bench: DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts

New Orleans SaintsOAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has a retooled group of receivers to open the season and they should get a ton of work versus the Raiders. Nonetheless, Brees is notorious for spreading the ball around in this offense which caps the ceiling of Brandin Cooks despite the favorable match up. Cooks should receive the most targets in route to a solid start to his 2016 campaign. Projecting the rest of the receivers is trickier. Willie Snead should be solid between the twenties but he will need volume to boost his receiving totals and I’m not sure he will get there with Brandon Coleman and Coby Fleener getting their share of passes. Fleener may be the most talented tight end the Saints have employed since trading away Jimmy Graham and should be a solid weapon near the goal.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram brings a true dual threat, three-down running back into what should be a shootout this weekend. Of the twelve games Ingram played in 2015, he averaged 20 touches in the four games the team won; compared to only 16 touches per game in the eight losses. The recipe for success is obvious in the bayou and the team elected not to bring in another back to challenge the Saints’ workhorse atop the depth chart. Tim Hightower is a quality backup to be sure but he is bench fodder until Ingram is forced to the sidelines. C.J. Spiller is holding on as a third down specialist. He may have a few moments in this contest but his role is too limited at this time to be used in lineups this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees
RB1: Mark Ingram
WR1: Brandin Cooks
Flexible: Willie Snead
TE1: Coby Fleener (low end)
Bench: Tim Hightower, Brandon Coleman

Prediction: Raiders 30, Saints 27 ^ Top

Lions at Colts - (Gordon)

Detroit Lions IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has played without Calvin Johnson, but he hasn’t started a season knowing he wasn’t going to be around. Look for Stafford to usher in the post-Megatron era in modest fashion this weekend by spreading the ball around to all of his pass catchers. Indy hasn’t had much of a passing defense in recent memory and the Lions will certainly be able to test the depth of a Colts’ secondary that is already playing without CB Vontae Davis. Golden Tate and newcomer Marvin Jones should take turns dissecting the defense on the outside making the pair viable WR2 options to open the year. TE Eric Ebron (ankle) comes into the weekend healthy and ready to improve on last season’s breakout but the ageless Anquan Boldin will also see targets in the middle of the field. Boldin should be on the radar of deeper PPR league owners where he has enough upside to be flex worthy in what could be a high scoring affair Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: This is a RBBC headache waiting to happen. Ameer Abdullah has earned the early down snaps in this game but he isn’t a lock for carries inside the red zone. Theo Riddick should get a good amount of work in the passing game if the Colts are able to set the scoring pace early. Sprinkle in some Zach Zenner near the goal and you have a messy running back situation that may lead to hair loss. The Colts ranked in the lower third in rushing yards per game last year so the potential for fantasy output is there. Whether or not the Lions will stop throwing the ball long enough to allow one of their running backs to rack up a decent fantasy line is a different story.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matthew Stafford
WR2: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones
Flexible: Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, Anquan Boldin (PPR)
TE2: Eric Ebron
Bench: Anquan Boldin (standard), Zach Zenner

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

Passing Game Thoughts: This may not be Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison but the Colts’ trio of T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett should have the Detroit defense squirming. Expect plenty of three receiver sets as the Colts look to put last season behind them. Andrew Luck has one of the highest ceilings of any fantasy QB this week which should translate into a quality outing for the receivers as well. Dorsett represents the riskiest option as a boom or bust player for Week 1. However, if Luck passes the ball 50 times like he did in his last meeting with the Lions, Hilton and Moncrief should see plenty of targets. Their ability to score from anywhere on the field pushes them into WR1 territory for the week. Despite an expected increase in targets, TE Dwayne Allen is still a touchdown dependent player that could burn owners.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore’s abilities as a receiver and pass blocker out of the backfield are used as frequently as his rushing abilities these days which doesn’t bode well for his fantasy owners. He has officially entered a decline at the age of 33 and he isn’t likely to find much room against a stout interior defensive front for Detroit. Gore’s ten to twelve touches might be worth slotting into a Flex slot in deep standard scoring leagues but that is where his value dries up. Robert Turbin would see whatever scraps are left and only has value as a handcuff to Gore.

Value Meter:
QB1: Andrew Luck
WR1: T.Y. Hilton
WR2: Donte Moncrief
Flexible: Frank Gore, Phillip Dorsett
TE2: Dwayne Allen
Bench: Robert Turbin

Prediction: Colts 27, Lions 24 ^ Top

Vikings at Titans - (Gordon)

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings options at quarterback took a big step backwards in the wake of Teddy Bridgewater’s season ending injury. Regardless of who is named the starter for this game, Minnesota won’t be able to use the entire playbook. A more simplified approach won’t prevent any Vikings receiver from being fantasy relevant this week, but it does lower the expectations of the passing game drastically. Charles Johnson (quad) may end up being a game time decision. If Johnson doesn’t play the Vikings will be forced to rely on untested rookie Laquon Treadwell to play opposite Stefon Diggs. Kyle Rudolph may benefit from the change at quarterback in time, but he should be considered a wait and see for Week 1. The Titans finished 2015 in the top third of the NFL in sacks and Dick Lebeau’s unit should add even more pressure to whichever quarterback lines up Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has been in this situation before and thrived.
His seven games with over 100 yards rushing in 2015 prove he may not be ready to enter a decline just yet. At age 31 against an opponent that knows he will be getting the ball, AP is still a must start in fantasy leagues. There is a real risk of the Titans loading the box in this game so although Peterson’s touches should remain high, he may struggle to accumulate yardage. Jerick McKinnon would be used liberally in passing situations but a foot injury may force the coaching staff to take a conservative approach. If McKinnon is ruled out come game day Matt Asiata would be next in line to rack up a few points.

Value Meter:
RB1: Adrian Peterson
Flexible: Stefon Diggs
TE2: Kyle Rudolph
Bench: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Charles Johnson, Laquon Treadwell, Jerick McKinnon

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans have finally moved on from the “potential” of Justin Hunter and Dorial Green-Beckham this preseason. Rishard Mathews and Tajae Sharpe have joined Delanie Walker as the team’s top receiving options. These two receivers offer more quickness and better route running to complement Marcus Mariota’s accuracy. The byproduct should be plenty of catches in an efficient and effective passing attack. It is too early to tell which receiver is most likely to pull ahead as the better option for standard leagues, but most of the buzz coming into the year has been with Sharpe. Kendall Wright (hamstring) is still struggling to stay on field and doesn’t look like a viable fantasy option this week. Nonetheless, Minnesota’s secondary should be up for the challenge with the addition of rookie CB Mackensie Alexander to the secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: The real focus of the off season for the Titans was realized when the team was able to acquire DeMarco Murray from the rebuilding Philadelphia Eagles. Murray’s status as the lead running back has been assured by the coaching staff despite the successful preseason of rookie Derrick Henry. As a result, he can safely be expected to see upwards of twenty carries in his Titans debut making him a low end RB1 for Week 1. Derrick Henry will also get his chances to tote the rock in this game and has a chance of seeing double-digit carries but until there is a better sense of the workload split, Henry owners will need to patiently keep him benched this week.

Value Meter:
QB2: Marcus Mariota
RB1: DeMarco Murray
Flexible: Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews
TE1: Delanie Walker
Bench: Kendall Wright (out), Derrick Henry

Prediction: Titans 28, Vikings 10 ^ Top

Bengals @ Jets - (Katz)

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton will be making his first start since injuring his thumb last December against Pittsburgh, but the real story of this game is the showdown between A.J. Green and Darrelle Revis. With the offseason departures of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones and the injury to Tyler Eifert, Green is the entire Bengals passing game. Despite facing the best cornerback in football, Dalton is going to pepper Green with targets and as a result, the only member of the Bengals passing attack I’d feel comfortable starting. Brandon LaFell has proven time and time again he just isn’t starter worthy and it’s way too soon for rookie Tyler Boyd as this Jets defense is too good to allow any ancillary players to succeed.

Running Game Thoughts: Cincinnati returns its duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Hill led all running backs in touchdowns last year, but was still an overall disappointment as his yards per carry dipped from 5.1 his rookie year to 3.6 in 2015. I’m not sold on a bounce-back year from Hill. He’s a virtual lock for double digit scores, but predicting when they will occur is anyone’s guess and against a stout Jets run defense, the odds are stacked against him. The running back I prefer this week is Gio Bernard as I foresee the Bengals utilizing the short passing game in lieu of an ineffective run game. Gio will do the majority of his work through the air and should see enough targets given the lack of options in the passing game behind Green to be a worthy of your lineup.

Value Meter:
QB2: Andy Dalton (mid-range)
RB2: Giovani Bernard (low end)
RB3: Jeremy Hill (mid-range)
WR1: A.J. Green (low end)
Bench: Tyler Boyd, Brandon LaFell

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Passing Game Thoughts: Better late than never, but the Jets got Ryan Fitzpatrick under contract just before training camp opened. This passing game is one of the easiest to predict in the NFL. There’s Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. That’s it. These two monsters will hog virtually all of the targets and rightfully so. As pointed out by FFToday’s Steve Schwarz, these two combined for 189 receptions, 2,529 receiving yards and 26 touchdown catches on 305 targets last season. The Bengals defense is likely a top ten unit, but Marshall and Decker spent 16 weeks in 2015 proving they are matchup proof (to be fair, Marshall’s been proving it for years). You want these two in your lineup.

Running Game Thoughts: Exit Chris Ivory. Enter Matt Forte. It’s an interesting fit for the Jets given that Forte is quite similar to Bilal Powell, albeit a much, much better version. There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding how heavily the Jets intend to use Forte and some trepidation regarding Forte is warranted. Powell was highly effective in the shotgun and passing game last season. The thing is – that’s Forte’s gimmick. If Matt Forte is right, I can’t see the Jets taking him off the field for any other reason than to keep him fresh. It’s something we won’t know for sure until we see it on the field, but my money is on Forte being just fine.

Value Meter:
QB2: Ryan Fitzpatrick (mid-range)
RB2: Matt Forte (mid-range)
WR1: Brandon Marshall (mid-range)
WR2: Eric Decker (high end)
Flexible: Bilal Powell (you shouldn’t need him Week 1, but you can if you must)
Bench: N/A

Prediction: Jets 23, Bengals 17 ^ Top

Browns @ Eagles - (Katz)

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Passing Game Thoughts: If you told me a few months ago that my first thought about the Cleveland Browns passing attack would be: “There are actually a lot of things to be excited about here,” I’d have told you that you’re crazy. But it’s true! The Browns acquired Robert Griffin and there was little doubt he would be the Week 1 starter. He spent all of 2015 on Washington’s bench, but now gets a chance to revive his career in Cleveland. To say he’s back to being “vintage RG3” would be hyperbole, but Griffin has shown flashes of his old self in the preseason – enough to get excited about what could be. He won’t have Josh Gordon Week 1 (who looks like Josh Gordon again), but he will have the best rookie wide receiver from this class, Corey Coleman, and former quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who has looked very capable catching the football. There are a lot of unknowns here and there is admittedly a chance this becomes an unmitigated disaster, but the Browns could be sneaky fun to watch and it may all start in Week 1 against a suspect Eagles defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The Browns rushing situation is far simpler than their passing situation. Isaiah Crowell “smashes” and Duke Johnson “dashes” (an ode to the days of Chris Johnson and the immortal LenDale White in Tennessee). Crowell will start, but Johnson will play in most passing situations. In half or full PPR formats, Johnson is the more valuable player. It’s a lot closer in standard formats, however, as Crowell is the better bet for touchdowns. In Week 1, it’s hard to know what to expect from a game script standpoint as these teams have undergone considerable changes (some as recently as last week), but my guess is the Browns find themselves throwing more than they planned.

Value Meter:
QB2: Robert Griffin III (low end until he shows us regular season signs of the old RG3)
RB2: Duke Johnson (low end, PPR only)
WR3: Corey Coleman (this is probably generous, but he is the best WR they have)
Flexible: Isaiah Crowell (the volume is predictable, you could do worse)
TE1: Gary Barnidge (will be interesting to see his rapport with Griffin)
Bench: Terrelle Pryor (not yet), Josh Gordon (suspended)

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Passing Game Thoughts: Last year I wrote my Week 1 matchup analysis about a week in advance. Good thing I didn’t do that this year or I’d have had to rewrite this entire section similar to how the Eagles decided to rewrite their entire offense when they traded away their starting QB for a king’s ransom (I imagine the Eagles’ retort would simply be: “leverage.”) Presumed No.2 QB, Chase Daniel, will remain in his role as the Eagles have announced second overall pick Carson Wentz will be the starter Week 1. This is undoubtedly the right call as the Eagles have nothing to lose and little to gain by starting Daniel. The Eagles WR situation is quite unknown behind Jordan Matthews. Nelson Agholor is looking more and more like a bust so the Eagles traded for another bust, Dorial Green-Beckham. Neither is relevant for Week 1. I like J-Matt and Zach Ertz this season, but expectations should certainly be tempered for Week 1 given the recent change at quarterback.

Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles have a medley of running backs, all of whom could have value at some point this season. For Week 1, there are only two names to concern yourself with: Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. I believe Sproles will end up being the back with the most value this season, but Mathews is the clear starter and I think he’s a good bet for 15-plus carries with Sproles handling 3-5 carries as well as passing down work. Recent reports have surfaced that Sproles might be in line for an increased red zone presence. That would be quite the boon to his value and, if true, could wind up making Sproles one of the steals of draft day.

Value Meter:
RB2: Ryan Mathews (low end)
WR3: Jordan Matthews (high end – I need to see it with Wentz first)
Flexible: Darren Sproles (I anticipate him appearing here a lot)
TE1: Zach Ertz (low end for now – see Matthews, Jordan)
Bench: Carson Wentz, Dorial Green-Beckham

Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 24 ^ Top

Giants @ Cowboys - (Katz)

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Passing Game Thoughts: At this point, we know what Eli Manning is. He’s going to finish as a top 12 fantasy QB, but you are not going to like how he gets there (or maybe you will if you start him the right weeks). The Cowboys are a favorable matchup, though, so you should feel confident in him this week. It helps that he has a guy named Odell Beckham to catch passes. No need to hammer home an obvious point. Beckham is fantastic (although he struggled in both games against the Cowboys in 2015). Joining him this season is rookie Sterling Shepard who had a less than sterling (see what I did there) preseason. Regardless, he will open as the No.2 receiver and should be good for at least 5-7 targets in what projects to be a shootout. The third member of the Giants receiving corps – the guy returning from a torn patellar tendon, torn calf, and a host of other ailments – he can be safely ignored. Color me shocked if Victor Cruz ever matters in fantasy again.

Running Game Thoughts: Exhibit A as to why Tom Coughlin deserved to be fired is going to be the Giants running back usage this Sunday. It will likely be Rashad Jennings on first and second down and Shane Vereen on third down/obvious passing situations. That’s how it should’ve been last season, but Coughlin, who is as “done” as a coach as Andre Johnson is “done” as a receiver, insisted on giving Andre Williams the ball for reasons we will never fully understand. Williams was recently informed his “services” were no longer needed. The reality is they were never needed in the first place and he should’ve been gone two years ago. Jennings will have a two-down role plus goal line carries so at least early in the season, while he’s healthy, he is safe to start.

Value Meter:
QB1: Eli Manning (low end)
RB2: Rashad Jennings (low end)
WR1: Odell Beckham Jr. (elite)
Flexable: Sterling Shepard, Shane Vereen (only in deep PPR leagues)
Bench: Victor Cruz (I’m sorry, but it’s over)

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Passing Game Thoughts: This is my second year writing this column and I will open the first Cowboys game the same way I opened last year – informing all you fine readers that I am, in fact, a Cowboys fan. This is the thirteenth Cowboys game I’ve had the privilege of writing about and the fifth different quarterback I have had to discuss. I have now discussed more Cowboys starting QBs than games Tony Romo has played during my tenure. Dak Prescott was the single highest graded QB of the preseason and it certainly looks like I should be glad the Cowboys failed in their attempts to trade up for Connor Cook and were “stuck” with Prescott. The key difference between Prescott and the medley of Cowboys failures in 2015 is that when the ball is snapped, Prescott actually looks for Dez Bryant. Not having Bryant healthy for all of 2015 and not having him even on the field for the majority of it certainly made the QBs look worse than they were. Bryant is back, looks to be 100%, and appeared to have some chemistry with the rookie signal caller in the preseason. The Giants improved their pass rush considerably, but their secondary, despite the acquisition of Janoris Jenkins and drafting (read: reaching) for Eli Apple is not as much of an improvement as they think. I wouldn’t downgrade Bryant much, if at all, due to the lack of Romo.

Running Game Thoughts: As I was writing this section, news came out that Ezekiel Elliott has been cleared of any wrongdoing relating to the domestic violence allegations earlier this summer. With that worry behind him, Zeke can focus on the task at hand – his regular season NFL debut. The question is not whether Zeke will succeed, it’s to what extent? How much will the Cowboys really lean on their rookie? My guess: a lot. The best way to ease the pressure on a rookie QB is to give the ball to the man standing behind him and telling him to go run through the gaping holes created by the best offensive line in football. In a high scoring affair, there will be plenty of work for young Elliott. Alfred Morris is nothing more than a handcuff.

Value Meter:
QB2: Dak Prescott (high end, rushing numbers may have him push QB1 status)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (high end)
WR1: Dez Bryant (elite)
TE2: Jason Witten (Romo makes Witten go so no Romo = TE2 status for Witten)
Bench: Terrance Williams (I can’t believe he’s still the No.2)

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Giants 31 (homer pick) ^ Top

Steelers @ Redskins - (Katz)

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers passing game is a cornucopia of fantasy goodness. There is no receiver I enjoy discussing or watching more than Antonio Brown. It’s a running joke that Brown cannot be covered, except for the part where it’s true. The Redskins will be helpless to stop AB and the best receiver in football will remind everyone rather quickly why he has that title. Double digit receptions and triple digit yardage are as close to guaranteed as you can get. Ben Roethlisberger should have no trouble shredding this secondary, but the other receiver benefiting could be Markus Wheaton (shoulder) or Eli Rogers. Your guess is as good as mine but I wouldn’t start either unless Wheaton is ruled out.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell is probably entering his final season as a Steeler given the off-field headaches he causes. Once again, DeAngelo Williams is thrust into a feature role. The assumption is he’s going to do what he did last year but I’m a little hesitant to anoint him as an RB1. Remember, he is 33 years old. Touchdowns are fluky so it’s entire possible he reaps the benefits of the passing game’s dominance, but I just don’t foresee a monster game from DWill. He will be solid and serviceable, but those expecting superstar numbers are going to be disappointed.

Value Meter:
QB1: Ben Roethlisberger (mid-range)
RB1: DeAngelo Williams (low end and this is probably generous)
WR1: Antonio Brown (THE WR1)
Flexible: Markus Wheaton, Eli Rogers (confirm Wheaton’s status on Sunday)
TE2: Jesse James (who I will henceforth refer to as “The Road Dogg”)
Bench: Le’Veon Bell (suspended)

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins enters his second year as the unquestioned starting QB and is looking to build upon the success he had in the latter portion of 2015. I would be glad to make a strong wager against him. Cousins has been a below average quarterback for the majority of his career. He had a magical second half run last season that inflated his statistics. The saving grace for 2016 could be DeSean Jackson, who is actually healthy (although he was healthy Week 1 last year, for about three plays) and looks and spry as ever. Jackson will likely be a WR2 this season, but he will do so in his typical DeSean way – with a mix of WR1 and WR4 performances. Pierre Garcon still exists, but his ceiling is 5-50 with the occasional touchdown. The top option in this passing game is Jordan Reed. He is without a doubt the second best pass catching TE in football and will be an elite option producing WR1 type numbers for as long as he can stay on the field. If he can somehow play 16 games, you’re getting Gronk at a two-round discount. He’s completely healthy for Week 1 so we will take it one week at a time.

Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris has departed for Dallas and left Washington with what I believe to be the worst running back situation in the NFL. Matt Jones sits atop the depth chart, but he’s still recovering from a sprained AC joint. He’s expected to play Week 1, but with the NFL’s new injury designation rules, there are going to be a whole lot more “questionables” we have to sort through. If Jones can’t go, Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson will share the load. Thompson is my favorite of the Redskins backs, particularly in PPR leagues as he’s the safest bet for positive production. Neither Kelley nor Jones are particularly talented so regardless of who starts or what the split is, I have no interest in either. I expect Thompson to lead this backfield in fantasy points when it’s all said and done, but this is not the week to start any Redskins running back. The Steelers defense is underrated and is going to surprise a few people this season and may very well be a top 10 unit.

Value Meter:
QB2: Kirk Cousins (low end)
WR3: DeSean Jackson (mid-range)
Flexible: Chris Thompson (expect WAS to be in many passing situations)
TE1: Jordan Reed (elite)
Bench: Pierre Garcon, Matt Jones, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson

Prediction: Steelers 27, Redskins 16 ^ Top

Bills @ Ravens - (Marcoccio)

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Passing Game Thoughts: Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman used a run-heavy offense last season in an effort to protect his inexperienced starting quarterback but wasn’t afraid to let Tyrod Taylor throw the ball downfield when he did call for the pass. It would seem to follow logically that the team would open the offense up more this season, but with Rex Ryan’s preference for the “ground and pound” attack don’t be surprised to see another season of conservative play calling. The Bills lack serious weapons in the passing game outside of the future superstar Sammy Watkins and the underrated tight end Charles Clay.

Expect a conservative game plan against a Baltimore defense that was a decent unit last season against the pass. Taylor is one of the league’s better running quarterbacks however so a run heavy game plan doesn’t necessarily eliminate him from being an asset for your fantasy team. Baltimore finished last season as the 10th ranked pass defense allowing 233.6 passing yards per game but did yield 30 passing touchdowns while only grabbing six interceptions. It has been announced the Elvis Dumervil will not suit up this week which will limit the Ravens’ pass rush, making things easier for the Bills young QB.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills led the league in rushing last season behind solid seasons from veteran LeSean McCoy and unheralded rookie Karlos Williams. Williams was released during the off-season after reporting out of shape and then earning a drug related suspension leaving the backup duties to veteran Reggie Bush and perhaps rookie Jonathan Williams. McCoy is entering his age 28 season and while he is still effective he has lost some of his explosion while missing four games last season. On the positive side he will see a heavy workload and perhaps earn back some of the goaline work he lost to Williams with no true pounder on the roster. The Bills will come out of the gates looking to exert their dominance on the ground and will face a young Ravens’ defense that allowed over 100 rushing yards per game last season.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tyrod Taylor (low-end)
RB1: LeSean McCoy
WR2: Sammy Watkins
TE2: Charles Clay
Bench: Reggie Bush, Robert Woods

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

Passing Game Thoughts: Believe it or not the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts last season (676). Joe Flacco was on pace to throw for 4,465 yards – by far his highest total - when he tore his ACL in Week 10. The Marc Trestman offensive scheme helped make Jay Cutler a viable fantasy quarterback and gives Joe Flacco a high floor as well as a high ceiling in 2016. The wide receiver depth chart is a tough one to figure out with Steve Smith, entering his age 37 season, returning after a season-ending Achilles injury and last season’s first round pick Breshad Perriman still struggling to get on the field consistently. Kamar Aiken, a solid but unspectacular wideout, led the team last season and could play a significant role once again. Mike Wallace could be back on the fantasy radar with the strong-armed Flacco under center.

Surprisingly Buffalo’s defense was well below average last season as opponents were able to throw for 3,972 yards and 30 touchdowns against them. This should give Flacco, and Mike Wallace some confidence heading into this matchup. Young corner Ronald Darby played very well last season, but shockingly for a Rex Ryan defense the Bills finished second to last in sacks with only 21 total. The team released its best pass rusher in Mario Williams so it will be up to the Ryan brothers to come up with schemes that change their fortunes when getting after opposing passers.

Running Game Thoughts: If there is a team which is more confusing for fantasy football players to figure out than Baltimore, I cannot think of it. Baltimore will potentially run a four-man RBBC once rookie Kenneth Dixon gets healthy in a few weeks. Shockingly, Baltimore cut it’s supposed starting back Justin Forsett earlier this week but he was quickly re-signed and announced himself as the team’s starting back. However, third year runner Terrance West has reportedly been the best back throughout training camp and should receive some early down and short yardage work. Meanwhile second year back Javorius Allen could be worked in as a third-down back after showing well as a pass catcher last season. West may be the best bet against an aggressive Bills’ defense, but it’s probably best to avoid this situation until we get a clearer picture of how things will shake out. The Bills gave up close to 110 rushing yards per game last season so the matchup is favorable at least.

Value Meter:
QB2: Joe Flacco
WR3: Mike Wallace
Flexible: Terrance West, Justin Forsett
TE2: Crockett Gillmore
Bench: Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman, Kamar Aiken

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bills 20 ^ Top