Notes:
- Fantasy points allowed rankings are from 2015. Rankings for 2016
will be used beginning next week.
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top 8)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom 8)
DEN
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Passing Game Thoughts: The reigning
NFL MVP returns for another season in Carolina and he’ll
be excited to have his top target from two seasons ago, Kelvin
Benjamin, back on the field. Benjamin slates to be the team’s
top receiver in the long term, but is rumored to be on a snap
count “around 35” for Week 1. Fellow wideouts Devin
Funchess and Ted Ginn Jr. are expected to see the most snaps this
week, but a very tough matchup against the secondary that gave
up the fewest points to fantasy receivers last season should force
these Panthers wideouts to be on the bench for most fantasy owners.
Greg Olsen, however, remains a must-start at the tight end position.
He caught just four of his nine targets for 41 yards against these
Broncos in Super Bowl 50, but he’s by far the team’s
most reliable receiver. Newton (18-41, 265 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT)
struggled against the Broncos in the final game of 2015, but he
was the top quarterback selected in most fantasy drafts and is
likely a must-start regardless of matchup this early in the season.
Running Game Thoughts: He’s
not exciting, but where Jonathan Stewart lacks in pizazz, he makes
up for in consistency. Stewart rushed for over 50 yards in every
regular season start he had in 2015 and finished with double-digit
fantasy points (standard scoring) in seven of his final nine starts.
He did, however, struggle in the Super Bowl where he rushed for
just 29 yards on 12 carries, including a touchdown. The Broncos
defense did lose some pieces in the offseason, particularly in
run support, but Stewart’s lack of usage in the passing
game makes him a weak RB2 in Week 1, especially in PPR formats.
CAR
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Passing Game Thoughts: The defending
Super Bowl champions will turn to a new quarterback, Trevor Siemian,
to lead them in 2016. He won’t have it easy right out of
the gate as he’ll be up against a Panthers defense that
was stout against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the ninth-fewest
points to the position in 2015. Of course, the Panthers lost one
of the league’s premier cornerbacks in Josh Norman this
offseason, which should give owners of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius
Thomas some comfort. Thomas was held to just one reception for
8 yards in the Super Bowl despite being targeted six times with
Norman shadowing him much of the game. Be careful with both Sanders
and Thomas as the Broncos will look to control the game with their
defense and running game.
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson
burned a lot of fantasy owners in 2015, but could be in line to
have a productive season now that expectations have been tempered.
Anderson was given a whopping 23 of the Broncos 28 total carries
in the Super Bowl, which he took for 90 yards and a score against
this Panthers defense. Without Ronnie Hillman taking snaps, Anderson
should be a much more reliable option and could creep up into
the RB1 conversation even in this reasonably difficult matchup.
Rookie Devontae Booker should have a role but it remains to be
seen how much he’ll eat into Anderson’s workload.
A 35 percent share is likely Booker’s ceiling.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Passing Game Thoughts: All eyes
will be on wide receiver Keenan Allen who is making his return
after missing the second half of the 2015 season with a lacerated
kidney. Allen, who was one of the NFL’s most productive
receivers prior to his injury, will be a welcome addition to the
Chargers passing game which struggled against the Chiefs a season
ago. Rivers had just two games where he didn’t throw a touchdown
pass in 2015 – his opponents in those games? The Kansas
City Chiefs and – you guessed it – the Kansas City
Chiefs. Rivers is a mid-level QB2 in this matchup at best. Tight
end Antonio Gates could see a good number of targets in this game,
especially if the Chiefs focus their attention on Allen. For his
career, Gates is averaging 10.1 FPts per game against the Chiefs.
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon
was one of the most disappointing fantasy players in 2015, partially
due to his own poor play, but largely due to him running behind
one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He’ll look
to turn things around in Week 1, but he’s going to be up
against one of the NFL’s stingiest run defenses, which allowed
the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs on the season.
This is probably not the time to risk putting Gordon in your lineup
unless you’re desperate. Pass-catching specialist Danny
Woodhead led all NFL running backs in receptions in 2015, but
was practically a non-factor in the two games these teams played
a season ago, making just four receptions and rushing for 12 total
yards. Certainly we should expect more than that from Woodhead,
but the Chiefs appear to have the recipe to slow him down. He’s
a low-end Flex option this week even in PPR formats.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Passing Game Thoughts: Steady and
solid, Alex Smith is a great fit for the Kansas City offense.
However, that doesn’t necessarily make him a great fantasy
option, at least in standard leagues with only one starting QB
per team. The San Diego defense held Smith to the two lowest fantasy
scores he produced in 2015 (17.6, 16.0). Wide receiver Jeremy
Maclin was also held in check against the Chargers as he did not
score and was held to just nine catches over two games. The only
other fantasy-relevant player in this passing game, tight end
Travis Kelce, struggled against the Chargers (8-64 in two games)
but is still likely a must-start for most fantasy teams given
his average draft position.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the
most important injury situations to watch this week will be that
of running back Jamaal Charles. Charles is still recovering from
the ACL injury which ended his 2015 season and has been limited
in practice all week and is expected to be listed as Doubtful.
The real player to watch is Spencer Ware who immediately catapults
to being a low-end RB1 if Charles does not play. Ware will get
enough touches to at least be a decent RB2 against a Chargers
defense that he scored twice against in 2015. Charcandrick West
(elbow) also figures to be involved, but his upside is very limited.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Passing Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners
had high aspirations for Ryan Tannehill a season ago, but he finished
as the 15th-ranked quarterback – making him a mid-range
QB2. Asking for even that type of production might be a lot this
week as he goes up against the Legion of Boom in Seattle, who
finished as the second-best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks
in 2015. While Jarvis Landry will likely see a lot of Richard
Sherman, the Seahawks don’t typically force their star corner
to follow the opposing No. 1 wide receiver, especially in the
slot, so there is some hope Landry will do enough to be a respectable
WR2 in PPR formats. The second wide receiver spot is something
to watch in this game as Kenny Stills has been impressive this
preseason while second-year receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring)
is fighting through an injury and might not suit up. Neither player
should be in fantasy lineups if Parker does play, but Stills could
be a sneaky Flex play if Parker sits.
Running Game Thoughts: Now listed
as the starter, veteran running back Arian Foster once again enters
the fantasy conversation, this time for a new team in Miami. Foster
has typically been a very productive player when healthy, but
without an abundance of game film in this offense, it’s
hard to trust him as anything more than a low-end RB2 against
this elite Seattle defense. Second-year back Jay Ajayi once again
lost the job to a veteran and has to be considered nothing more
than a handcuff for the time being. A valuable handcuff, given
Foster’s injury history, but a handcuff nonetheless.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Passing Game Thoughts: A breakout
fantasy season for both quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver
Doug Baldwin has expectations skyrocketing for this Seattle passing
game. They’ll have an opportunity to get things going against
a middle-of-the-road Miami defense in Week 1, in the comfort of
CenturyLink Field. Baldwin has firmly established himself as Wilson’s
top target, but that doesn’t mean he’s the only player
who will be catching passes in the offense. Second-year wideout
Tyler Lockett and veteran Jermaine Kearse should both have opportunities,
but they’re both difficult to trust this early in the season.
Meanwhile, tight end Jimmy Graham (knee) might be the most interesting
player to watch in this game as he is expected to make his first
start since a season-ending injury in Week 12 of the 2015 season.
Graham’s raw size is good enough to make him one of the
elite players at his position, but it might be wise to keep him
on the bench this week while we get an idea of what he has in
the tank.
Running Game Thoughts: The retirement
of Marshawn Lynch means changes in the Seattle backfield. Most
believed that it would be Thomas Rawls starting in Week 1, but
his recovery from an ankle injury and now an undisclosed illness
has kept Rawls out of practice for much of the week and those
factors are now threatening his playing time. Christine Michael
is now expected to start and he will likely get the majority of
early-down snaps at running back in what could be an exceptional
matchup. The Dolphins were the league’s worst fantasy defense
against opposing running backs in 2015 and whoever gets the touches
in this backfield could provide some surprisingly good fantasy
production.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady’s
suspension means that we’ll get our first chance to see
what might be the future of the franchise, Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo
himself is not much of a fantasy option but can he get the ball
to the Patriots’ top two targets, Rob Gronkowski and Julian
Edelman? Gronkowski’s raw physicality makes him arguably
the top tight end every week no matter who is throwing him the
ball, but Edelman is another story. Edelman typically does his
damage on timing routes and precision passing from Brady. Even
the slightest mistakes can lead to bad results for Edelman, which
makes him a risky play as even a WR2 this week. No other Patriots
receivers are in fantasy consideration at this time. Gronkowski
is dealing with a hamstring injury and reportedly missed the team
flight to Arizona on Friday so make sure to check his availability
on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: The always
murky New England backfield is even worse than usual heading into
2016 as we still don’t have a firm grasp on what the team
is planning to do now that Dion Lewis is out for the majority
of the season. It’s believed that LeGarrette Blount will
once again take over the early-down duties and could be in line
for a heavy workload if the Patriots attempt to control the clock
and avoid getting into an offensive shootout with Garoppolo behind
center. If the Patriots do fall behind we might see more of James
White, who has shown to be a decent receiver out of the backfield
with high efficiency ratings. That could give him some value in
deep PPR formats.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Passing Game Thoughts: One of the
NFL’s most prolific passing games will be back at it again
in Week 1 as Carson Palmer and the Cardinals look to build on
the huge season they had in 2015. All three of Arizona’s
top receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown
have fantasy value in this system with Fitzgerald being best utilized
in PPR formats, Floyd in touchdown-heavy scoring formats and Brown
being a deep threat who can go off at any time. The Patriots allowed
nearly 3,000 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in 2015
and it would not at all be surprising to see Palmer finish as
a QB1 with a least two of his receivers finishing as WR2’s
or above in this game.
Running Game Thoughts: Arguably
the top fantasy running back on the board heading into the 2016
season, David Johnson will have a chance to get his season going
in the right direction a big game against the Patriots. The loss
of Brady bodes well for opposing running games who would typically
be fighting from behind in the second half but now have a better
chance to be running out the clock in the 4th quarter against
Garoppolo. Johnson is also one of the best receiving backs in
the league, allowing him to play on all three downs if needed.
The Cardinals are six point Vegas favorites at home meaning we
could see a heavy dose of David Johnson to close things out, which
should lead to plenty of fantasy production.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
coaching staff in Los Angeles seems to believe that Case Keenum
is fully equipped to lead their franchise to the playoffs, fantasy
owners should not have those same expectations for this journeyman.
Keenum arguably played the best of any of the Rams’ quarterbacks
a season ago, but that still meant that he provided double-digit
fantasy production in just one game. Keenum shouldn’t even
be started in two-QB formats and it’s tough to trust any
of his receiving options either. Kenny Britt saw a slight uptick
in production who saw three of his five best fantasy days of the
season during Keenum’s time behind center. Still, Britt
has to be benched unless you’re already in complete desperation
mode in Week 1. The only player who should be considered for fantasy
purposes is Tavon Austin who is admittedly hit-or-miss, but has
been talked up repeatedly by the coaching staff and even recently
inked a new big-money deal. Austin is capable of both receptions
and touches out of the backfield but his volatility restricts
him to a flex option.
Running Game Thoughts: What Case
Keenum lacks in fantasy production he makes up for with clean,
crisp handoffs to one of the league’s top young fantasy
studs, running back Todd Gurley. Gurley scored five touchdowns
in the four games he played with Keenum as the starter in 2015
and while the Rams offense doesn’t project to post huge
numbers this season, when they do score, it’s likely to
be with their talented young tailback. Gurley trampled the 49ers
defense to the tune of 133 yards and a touchdown in his only start
against them as a rookie and he’s one of the most likely
backs in the league to touch the ball 20 times in Week 1, making
him a rock solid RB1 fantasy option.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Passing Game Thoughts: A disappointing
first season in San Francisco has Torrey Smith falling off the
radar in most fantasy circles, but the lack of competition at
wide receiver for the 49ers means that he will likely be the team’s
top option now that Anquan Boldin is in Detroit. A new offense
under head coach Chip Kelly might be to Smith’s liking.
If nothing else, the high number of snaps should lead to more
opportunities, which he will need against the stingy Los Angeles
secondary. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert could see lots of pressure
from the punishing Los Angeles pass rush, which really limits
his already low upside, making him a non-factor in most formats.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s
never good to be fighting off injury before you even take a snap
in the regular season, but the league’s concussion protocol
had held Hyde out of practice for most of the week. However, Hyde
did practice fully on Thursday which should clear the path for
him to take the lion’s share of the workload in Week 1 against
a Los Angeles run defense that conceded over 1,500 rushing yards
to opposing running backs in 2015. The new up-tempo Chip Kelly
offense should lead to even more opportunities for Hyde, but we’ve
seen backs like DeMarco Murray simply not be able to adapt to
the system and it remains to be seen whether or not Hyde is built
to perform in this offense. For now, Hyde should be considered
a solid RB2 with RB1 upside in this matchup.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Passing Game Thoughts: There are plenty of good vibes surrounding
the Green Bay passing attack these days and a match up against
the Jags continues the excitement leading into the opening week
of the year. The Jags can’t be much worse versus the pass
after allowing the fourth most passing yards per game last season.
$125 million free agent dollars and a few high draft choices later
suggest they should be a far better squad in 2016. It will take
more than one off-season makeover for Jacksonville’s new
defensive unit to gel well enough to hold up against an Aaron
Rodgers led offense for four quarters. Jordy Nelson wasn’t
even listed on Wednesday’s injury report and Randall Cobb
is back in his comfort zone so start them both with confidence.
Further down the depth chart Davante Adams’ development
has stalled to the point Jared Abbrederis is challenging him for
playing time. Richard Rodgers enters the year ahead of Jared Cook
on the depth chart but both players are expected to receive playing
time. Fantasy owners may be better off just watching how the targets
are split among the TEs before plugging them into their lineups.
Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of how you feel about Eddie
Lacy holding up over the course of this season, he enters Week
1 healthy and has a positive match up. A (slightly) trimmer Lacy
seems to have rediscovered his burst he displayed during his first
two years in the league that made him a top five RB. The offense
shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball against Jacksonville’s
remade squad. This should translate into multiple trips to the
red-zone where their 234-pound bowling ball is one of the better
bets to find pay dirt. Green Bay knows conditioning and health
are the biggest obstacles with their primary running back so expect
James Starks to get a few series of work in each half as well
as some snaps in passing situations. Until we get a chance to
see the split in carries, however, Starks is too risky to count
on for fantasy purposes.
GB
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles is primed to put up a quality
fantasy outing against Green Bay this weekend. He is surrounded
by talented pass catchers and the scoreboard could dictate a heavy
dose of passing attempts. Allen Robinson is a quality deep threat
and red zone target squaring off against a secondary that surrendered
14 pass plays over 40 yards last season (tied for third most in
the NFL). Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas will be a challenge to
cover underneath. In fact, Thomas has posted 100-plus yards receiving
with multiple touchdown catches in his last two Week 1 outings
(he was hurt for opening day in 2015). If Green Bay handles all
of the receivers, Bortles can still utilize T.Y. Yeldon out of
the backfield.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory is nursing a calf injury but
appears likely to play against Green Bay this weekend. Even though
he is locked into a committee with T.J. Yeldon, Ivory is a beast
near the goaline and has never finished a season averaging fewer
than four yards per carry so he doesn’t need volume to put
up respectable numbers. If the game becomes a true shootout or
a blowout, T.Y. Yeldon may see more reps in the Jacksonville backfield.
He should garner close to half of the carries and offers upside
as a receiver making him a stronger RB3 play in those pesky PPR
leagues.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Passing Game Thoughts: The Bears’ offensive line has lost
Center Hronissu Grasu (knee) for the season and is expected to
start Guard Josh Sitton, whom the team signed this week and a
rookie in Cody Whitehair. The lack of cohesion going up against
one of the elite pass rushes in the league is a daunting challenge
to weigh if you own any part of the Bears’ passing game.
Although J.J. Watt will be on a snap count, only four teams had
more sacks than the Texans during the 2015 regular season. New
OC Dowell Loggains will likely opt to keep things as simple as
possible by using quick throws to help keep his quarterback upright.
Additionally, the Bears will probably be using the tight end position
more as a blocker than a receiver in this game. Zach Miller will
certainly get a few looks but he won’t be racking up yards
down the field. Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White are the types of
big physical receivers needed to win contested balls against this
defense. Jeffery might not grab every sidewinder thrown in his
direction but his expected target load and red zone abilities
make him a solid WR2 this week. After missing his entire rookie
season, Kevin White is a bit of a crapshoot as a WR4/Flex in a
tough match up. Eddie Royal could be busy this week working from
the slot and could be a sneaky Flex option in deep PPR formats.
Outside of Jeffery, I’d suggest waiting a week for this
passing offense to iron out the offensive line before inserting
them into your fantasy lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: If the Bears are able to win this game
they will need a big performance out of Jeremy Langford and his
stable mates. As noted above, the conditions are not ideal for
Chicago converting many third and longs. Leaning on the rushing
attack is the only way the Bears can hope to move the ball down
field, grind away some clock and keep the game close. Unfortunately,
Houston’s defense ranked tenth in rushing yards allowed
per game during the 2015 season and there isn’t any reason
to expect a drop off. There have been rumblings over a potential
RBBC in Chicago so it will be worth watching how the carries are
divided in the first week of action. Langford’s fantasy
value has been up and down throughout the preseason but he represents
the best option for the Bears and fantasy owners in Week 1. He
proved last season that he is not only capable of being the lead
runner of this backfield but that he can be a workhorse if called
upon to do so. Ka’Deem Carey looks like a nice backup who
can come in for short stints and provide a little extra energy
but he is only likely to see a handful of carries this weekend.
Rookie Jordan Howard comes into this game on the heels of a solid
preseason. However, the buzz regarding Howard taking over this
backfield is premature. With continuity already an issue along
the offensive line, I can’t imagine a scenario where John
Fox would want to throw a rookie running back into the fire for
the Texans home opener.
CHI
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Passing Game Thoughts: This could get ugly rather quickly if
the Bears can’t get after Brock Osweiler. Houston packs
plenty of explosiveness and speed in the passing game that will
test a Bears unit that is still suffering through the pains of
transitioning to a 3-4 base scheme. Chicago’s best cornerback,
Kyle Fuller, is nursing a knee injury and isn’t expected
to play. Nobody in the Bears’ defensive back field can match
up with DeAndre Hopkins so expect a heavy dose of bracket coverage
aimed at containing the damage. Will Fuller is ahead of schedule,
already overtaking Jaelen Strong on the depth chart. Fuller would
be a full blown flex option right out of the gates, but the Texans
may not need to throw the ball much in the second half so he remains
a WR4 this week. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz opens the year as the starter
but the Texans seldom use the tight end in the passing game. If
the Bears linebackers overplay the run, Osweiler should have a
green light to send the ball down field to either of his jets
on the outside. Low expected passing attempts keep Osweiler’s
fantasy ceiling down this week, but he should not have a problem
finding the end zone in his Texans debut.
Running Game Thoughts: Chicago’s off-season improvements
to their linebacking corps were focused on improving a run defense
that was among the worst in the league in 2015. They will surely
be tested against a Houston offense that is ready to unleash Lamar
Miller. Houston will be without 2016 first round pick Nick Martin
(ankle) at Center but still figure to be an effective unit with
backup Greg Mancz getting the job done during the preseason. As
the focal point of Houston’s offense, Miller should see
plenty of work right of the gate as a runner and receiver making
him one of the most likely running backs to eclipse 100 total
yards in Week 1. Additionally, his solid work inside the red zone
during the preseason should ease any fears of Alfred Blue becoming
a TD vulture in this game. Blue finds himself in a similar role
as last season except the player he is backing up isn’t
nearly the injury risk so he carries only handcuff value in the
deepest of formats.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston continues to look more
comfortable working in this offense and his fantasy value is trending
upward coming into the year. Expectations are running higher than
ever for Mike Evans despite his inconsistent level of production
in recent years. With little in the way of competition as the
team’s top receiving threat, Evans will be an elite source
of targets facing off against the Falcons’ secondary. That
attention may set up Vincent Jackson to have one of his most productive
games of the year in Week 1. Behavioral issues in the preseason
seem to have been overcome as the team has anointed Austin Seferian-Jenkins
the co-starting tight end. ASJ should add another dimension to
the offense near the goal that was not present most of last season.
He and Charles Sims will be part of the plan to compensate for
the lack of quality depth at the receiver position.
Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay will lean on its rushing attack
in this match up with Doug Martin seeing about 80-percent of the
workload. The sheer size of his quarterback and the receivers
on the outside combined with his injury history will prevent Martin
from being a lock to score but his chances are more favorable
against Atlanta. After all, the Falcons catered to opposing RBs
last season by allowing a whopping twenty rushing touchdowns (tied
for most in the NFL). Be careful not to overlook Charles Sims
this week. There is potential for double-digit touches here making
him a RB3/Flex option in PPR formats.
TB
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Passing Game Thoughts: On average, Matt Ryan was QB20 during
drafts this season so chances are you have already decided to
keep Ryan on your bench this week. However, the holes on Atlanta’s
defense against the emerging Tampa offense will likely force Atlanta
into a familiar trend of throwing the ball more than they had
hoped. When playing the Bucs at home over the past two seasons,
Matt Ryan has produced like a starting caliber fantasy quarterback
by posting a nearly flawless two-game total of 58 of 69 pass attempts
for 683 yards and five scores against only one interception. The
offense also added one of the league’s most steady complementary
receivers in Mohamed Sanu. The Bucs promoted Dirk Koetter (Ryan’s
former OC) to be their Head Coach and added some talent in the
secondary but they are not going to lock down All-Pro Julio Jones
and must still respect the run. It may be difficult to sit the
guy you drafted to be your team’s starter in the first week
of the year but there are a number of poor matchups for QBs this
week and Ryan may be the better play.
Running Game Thoughts: During last year’s run to the top
of the fantasy running back rankings, Devonta Freeman was unable
to find the end zone against Tampa Bay (TB was one of only three
opponents to hold Freeman without a touchdown in 2015). Atlanta
may not afford their primary rusher to garner as many looks in
the passing attack to buoy his fantasy totals so his output this
week may fall closer to that of a RB2 when the dust settles in
this divisional game. Additionally, the coaching staff will also
look to get Tevin Coleman involved but until there is a clear
effort to make this a truer two-man RBBC, any fantasy owner plugging
him into their Flex position this week is rolling the dice.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Passing Game Thoughts: What’s not to like? New Orleans
gave up 45 passing touchdowns a year ago (worst in the NFL) and
245 passing yards per game (second worst in the NFL). Guess which
team gave up the second most points per game during the preseason?
You guessed it, the Saints! This scenario would seemingly make
just about any NFL quarterback look good but Carr went from being
mediocre as a rookie tossing only one 300-yard passing game to
being a rising star after recording six such games in 2015. The
third year signal caller has two great targets in Amari Cooper
and Michael Crabtree split out wide. This could be the first great
shootout of the year so get all of the starters into your lineups.
A third round pick out of Miami a year ago, Walford has taken
control of the pass-catching tight end role in the offense and
should flirt with TE1 production to open the year.
Running Game Thoughts: Oakland shouldn’t have much of an
issue moving the ball on the ground in this contest. The Saints
were second to last in rushing yards allowed a year ago and the
Raiders offensive line is slated to be one of the better units
in the league. Latavius Murray has been labeled a volume dependent
running back but he only averaged 16 carries per game over the
first six weeks in 2015. Fantasy owners should be able to count
on at least that many carries in this game. The addition of rookie
DeAndre Washington will allow the team to keep Murray fresh but
he may not be asked to do much in his pro debut.
OAK
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has a retooled group of receivers
to open the season and they should get a ton of work versus the
Raiders. Nonetheless, Brees is notorious for spreading the ball
around in this offense which caps the ceiling of Brandin Cooks
despite the favorable match up. Cooks should receive the most
targets in route to a solid start to his 2016 campaign. Projecting
the rest of the receivers is trickier. Willie Snead should be
solid between the twenties but he will need volume to boost his
receiving totals and I’m not sure he will get there with
Brandon Coleman and Coby Fleener getting their share of passes.
Fleener may be the most talented tight end the Saints have employed
since trading away Jimmy Graham and should be a solid weapon near
the goal.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram brings a true dual threat,
three-down running back into what should be a shootout this weekend.
Of the twelve games Ingram played in 2015, he averaged 20 touches
in the four games the team won; compared to only 16 touches per
game in the eight losses. The recipe for success is obvious in
the bayou and the team elected not to bring in another back to
challenge the Saints’ workhorse atop the depth chart. Tim
Hightower is a quality backup to be sure but he is bench fodder
until Ingram is forced to the sidelines. C.J. Spiller is holding
on as a third down specialist. He may have a few moments in this
contest but his role is too limited at this time to be used in
lineups this week.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has played without Calvin
Johnson, but he hasn’t started a season knowing he wasn’t
going to be around. Look for Stafford to usher in the post-Megatron
era in modest fashion this weekend by spreading the ball around
to all of his pass catchers. Indy hasn’t had much of a passing
defense in recent memory and the Lions will certainly be able
to test the depth of a Colts’ secondary that is already
playing without CB Vontae Davis. Golden Tate and newcomer Marvin
Jones should take turns dissecting the defense on the outside
making the pair viable WR2 options to open the year. TE Eric Ebron
(ankle) comes into the weekend healthy and ready to improve on
last season’s breakout but the ageless Anquan Boldin will
also see targets in the middle of the field. Boldin should be
on the radar of deeper PPR league owners where he has enough upside
to be flex worthy in what could be a high scoring affair Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: This is a RBBC headache waiting to happen.
Ameer Abdullah has earned the early down snaps in this game but
he isn’t a lock for carries inside the red zone. Theo Riddick
should get a good amount of work in the passing game if the Colts
are able to set the scoring pace early. Sprinkle in some Zach
Zenner near the goal and you have a messy running back situation
that may lead to hair loss. The Colts ranked in the lower third
in rushing yards per game last year so the potential for fantasy
output is there. Whether or not the Lions will stop throwing the
ball long enough to allow one of their running backs to rack up
a decent fantasy line is a different story.
DET
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Passing Game Thoughts: This may not be Reggie Wayne and Marvin
Harrison but the Colts’ trio of T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief
and Phillip Dorsett should have the Detroit defense squirming.
Expect plenty of three receiver sets as the Colts look to put
last season behind them. Andrew Luck has one of the highest ceilings
of any fantasy QB this week which should translate into a quality
outing for the receivers as well. Dorsett represents the riskiest
option as a boom or bust player for Week 1. However, if Luck passes
the ball 50 times like he did in his last meeting with the Lions,
Hilton and Moncrief should see plenty of targets. Their ability
to score from anywhere on the field pushes them into WR1 territory
for the week. Despite an expected increase in targets, TE Dwayne
Allen is still a touchdown dependent player that could burn owners.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore’s
abilities as a receiver and pass blocker out of the backfield
are used as frequently as his rushing abilities these days which
doesn’t bode well for his fantasy owners. He has officially
entered a decline at the age of 33 and he isn’t likely to
find much room against a stout interior defensive front for Detroit.
Gore’s ten to twelve touches might be worth slotting into
a Flex slot in deep standard scoring leagues but that is where
his value dries up. Robert Turbin would see whatever scraps are
left and only has value as a handcuff to Gore.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings options at quarterback took
a big step backwards in the wake of Teddy Bridgewater’s
season ending injury. Regardless of who is named the starter for
this game, Minnesota won’t be able to use the entire playbook.
A more simplified approach won’t prevent any Vikings receiver
from being fantasy relevant this week, but it does lower the expectations
of the passing game drastically. Charles Johnson (quad) may end
up being a game time decision. If Johnson doesn’t play the
Vikings will be forced to rely on untested rookie Laquon Treadwell
to play opposite Stefon Diggs. Kyle Rudolph may benefit from the
change at quarterback in time, but he should be considered a wait
and see for Week 1. The Titans finished 2015 in the top third
of the NFL in sacks and Dick Lebeau’s unit should add even
more pressure to whichever quarterback lines up Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has been in this situation
before and thrived.
His seven games with over 100 yards rushing in 2015 prove he may
not be ready to enter a decline just yet. At age 31 against an
opponent that knows he will be getting the ball, AP is still a
must start in fantasy leagues. There is a real risk of the Titans
loading the box in this game so although Peterson’s touches
should remain high, he may struggle to accumulate yardage. Jerick
McKinnon would be used liberally in passing situations but a foot
injury may force the coaching staff to take a conservative approach.
If McKinnon is ruled out come game day Matt Asiata would be next
in line to rack up a few points.
MIN
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans have finally moved on from
the “potential” of Justin Hunter and Dorial Green-Beckham
this preseason. Rishard Mathews and Tajae Sharpe have joined Delanie
Walker as the team’s top receiving options. These two receivers
offer more quickness and better route running to complement Marcus
Mariota’s accuracy. The byproduct should be plenty of catches
in an efficient and effective passing attack. It is too early
to tell which receiver is most likely to pull ahead as the better
option for standard leagues, but most of the buzz coming into
the year has been with Sharpe. Kendall Wright (hamstring) is still
struggling to stay on field and doesn’t look like a viable
fantasy option this week. Nonetheless, Minnesota’s secondary
should be up for the challenge with the addition of rookie CB
Mackensie Alexander to the secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: The real focus of the off season for the
Titans was realized when the team was able to acquire DeMarco
Murray from the rebuilding Philadelphia Eagles. Murray’s
status as the lead running back has been assured by the coaching
staff despite the successful preseason of rookie Derrick Henry.
As a result, he can safely be expected to see upwards of twenty
carries in his Titans debut making him a low end RB1 for Week
1. Derrick Henry will also get his chances to tote the rock in
this game and has a chance of seeing double-digit carries but
until there is a better sense of the workload split, Henry owners
will need to patiently keep him benched this week.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton will be making his first start
since injuring his thumb last December against Pittsburgh, but
the real story of this game is the showdown between A.J. Green
and Darrelle Revis. With the offseason departures of Mohamed Sanu
and Marvin Jones and the injury to Tyler Eifert, Green is the
entire Bengals passing game. Despite facing the best cornerback
in football, Dalton is going to pepper Green with targets and
as a result, the only member of the Bengals passing attack I’d
feel comfortable starting. Brandon LaFell has proven time and
time again he just isn’t starter worthy and it’s way
too soon for rookie Tyler Boyd as this Jets defense is too good
to allow any ancillary players to succeed.
Running Game Thoughts: Cincinnati returns its duo of Jeremy Hill
and Giovani Bernard. Hill led all running backs in touchdowns
last year, but was still an overall disappointment as his yards
per carry dipped from 5.1 his rookie year to 3.6 in 2015. I’m
not sold on a bounce-back year from Hill. He’s a virtual
lock for double digit scores, but predicting when they will occur
is anyone’s guess and against a stout Jets run defense,
the odds are stacked against him. The running back I prefer this
week is Gio Bernard as I foresee the Bengals utilizing the short
passing game in lieu of an ineffective run game. Gio will do the
majority of his work through the air and should see enough targets
given the lack of options in the passing game behind Green to
be a worthy of your lineup.
CIN
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Passing Game Thoughts: Better late than never, but the Jets got
Ryan Fitzpatrick under contract just before training camp opened.
This passing game is one of the easiest to predict in the NFL.
There’s Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. That’s it.
These two monsters will hog virtually all of the targets and rightfully
so. As pointed out by FFToday’s Steve Schwarz, these two
combined for 189 receptions, 2,529 receiving yards and 26 touchdown
catches on 305 targets last season. The Bengals defense is likely
a top ten unit, but Marshall and Decker spent 16 weeks in 2015
proving they are matchup proof (to be fair, Marshall’s been
proving it for years). You want these two in your lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: Exit Chris Ivory. Enter Matt Forte. It’s
an interesting fit for the Jets given that Forte is quite similar
to Bilal Powell, albeit a much, much better version. There’s
a lot of uncertainty regarding how heavily the Jets intend to
use Forte and some trepidation regarding Forte is warranted. Powell
was highly effective in the shotgun and passing game last season.
The thing is – that’s Forte’s gimmick. If Matt
Forte is right, I can’t see the Jets taking him off the
field for any other reason than to keep him fresh. It’s
something we won’t know for sure until we see it on the
field, but my money is on Forte being just fine.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Passing Game Thoughts: If you told me a few months ago that my
first thought about the Cleveland Browns passing attack would
be: “There are actually a lot of things to be excited about
here,” I’d have told you that you’re crazy.
But it’s true! The Browns acquired Robert Griffin and there
was little doubt he would be the Week 1 starter. He spent all
of 2015 on Washington’s bench, but now gets a chance to
revive his career in Cleveland. To say he’s back to being
“vintage RG3” would be hyperbole, but Griffin has
shown flashes of his old self in the preseason – enough
to get excited about what could be. He won’t have Josh Gordon
Week 1 (who looks like Josh Gordon again), but he will have the
best rookie wide receiver from this class, Corey Coleman, and
former quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who has looked very capable
catching the football. There are a lot of unknowns here and there
is admittedly a chance this becomes an unmitigated disaster, but
the Browns could be sneaky fun to watch and it may all start in
Week 1 against a suspect Eagles defense.
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns rushing situation is far simpler
than their passing situation. Isaiah Crowell “smashes”
and Duke Johnson “dashes” (an ode to the days of Chris
Johnson and the immortal LenDale White in Tennessee). Crowell
will start, but Johnson will play in most passing situations.
In half or full PPR formats, Johnson is the more valuable player.
It’s a lot closer in standard formats, however, as Crowell
is the better bet for touchdowns. In Week 1, it’s hard to
know what to expect from a game script standpoint as these teams
have undergone considerable changes (some as recently as last
week), but my guess is the Browns find themselves throwing more
than they planned.
Value Meter:
QB2: Robert
Griffin III (low end until he shows us regular season signs
of the old RG3)
RB2: Duke
Johnson (low end, PPR only)
WR3: Corey
Coleman (this is probably generous, but he is the best WR
they have)
Flexible: Isaiah
Crowell (the volume is predictable, you could do worse)
TE1: Gary
Barnidge (will be interesting to see his rapport with Griffin)
Bench: Terrelle
Pryor (not yet), Josh
Gordon (suspended)
CLE
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Passing Game Thoughts: Last year I wrote my Week 1 matchup analysis
about a week in advance. Good thing I didn’t do that this
year or I’d have had to rewrite this entire section similar
to how the Eagles decided to rewrite their entire offense when
they traded away their starting QB for a king’s ransom (I
imagine the Eagles’ retort would simply be: “leverage.”)
Presumed No.2 QB, Chase Daniel, will remain in his role as the
Eagles have announced second overall pick Carson Wentz will be
the starter Week 1. This is undoubtedly the right call as the
Eagles have nothing to lose and little to gain by starting Daniel.
The Eagles WR situation is quite unknown behind Jordan Matthews.
Nelson Agholor is looking more and more like a bust so the Eagles
traded for another bust, Dorial Green-Beckham. Neither is relevant
for Week 1. I like J-Matt and Zach Ertz this season, but expectations
should certainly be tempered for Week 1 given the recent change
at quarterback.
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles have a medley of running backs,
all of whom could have value at some point this season. For Week
1, there are only two names to concern yourself with: Ryan Mathews
and Darren Sproles. I believe Sproles will end up being the back
with the most value this season, but Mathews is the clear starter
and I think he’s a good bet for 15-plus carries with Sproles
handling 3-5 carries as well as passing down work. Recent reports
have surfaced that Sproles might be in line for an increased red
zone presence. That would be quite the boon to his value and,
if true, could wind up making Sproles one of the steals of draft
day.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Passing Game Thoughts: At this point, we know what Eli Manning
is. He’s going to finish as a top 12 fantasy QB, but you
are not going to like how he gets there (or maybe you will if
you start him the right weeks). The Cowboys are a favorable matchup,
though, so you should feel confident in him this week. It helps
that he has a guy named Odell Beckham to catch passes. No need
to hammer home an obvious point. Beckham is fantastic (although
he struggled in both games against the Cowboys in 2015). Joining
him this season is rookie Sterling Shepard who had a less than
sterling (see what I did there) preseason. Regardless, he will
open as the No.2 receiver and should be good for at least 5-7
targets in what projects to be a shootout. The third member of
the Giants receiving corps – the guy returning from a torn
patellar tendon, torn calf, and a host of other ailments –
he can be safely ignored. Color me shocked if Victor Cruz ever
matters in fantasy again.
Running Game Thoughts: Exhibit A as to why Tom Coughlin deserved
to be fired is going to be the Giants running back usage this
Sunday. It will likely be Rashad Jennings on first and second
down and Shane Vereen on third down/obvious passing situations.
That’s how it should’ve been last season, but Coughlin,
who is as “done” as a coach as Andre Johnson is “done”
as a receiver, insisted on giving Andre Williams the ball for
reasons we will never fully understand. Williams was recently
informed his “services” were no longer needed. The
reality is they were never needed in the first place and he should’ve
been gone two years ago. Jennings will have a two-down role plus
goal line carries so at least early in the season, while he’s
healthy, he is safe to start.
NYG
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Passing Game Thoughts: This is my second year writing this column
and I will open the first Cowboys game the same way I opened last
year – informing all you fine readers that I am, in fact,
a Cowboys fan. This is the thirteenth Cowboys game I’ve
had the privilege of writing about and the fifth different quarterback
I have had to discuss. I have now discussed more Cowboys starting
QBs than games Tony Romo has played during my tenure. Dak Prescott
was the single highest graded QB of the preseason and it certainly
looks like I should be glad the Cowboys failed in their attempts
to trade up for Connor Cook and were “stuck” with
Prescott. The key difference between Prescott and the medley of
Cowboys failures in 2015 is that when the ball is snapped, Prescott
actually looks for Dez Bryant. Not having Bryant healthy for all
of 2015 and not having him even on the field for the majority
of it certainly made the QBs look worse than they were. Bryant
is back, looks to be 100%, and appeared to have some chemistry
with the rookie signal caller in the preseason. The Giants improved
their pass rush considerably, but their secondary, despite the
acquisition of Janoris Jenkins and drafting (read: reaching) for
Eli Apple is not as much of an improvement as they think. I wouldn’t
downgrade Bryant much, if at all, due to the lack of Romo.
Running Game Thoughts: As I was writing this section, news came
out that Ezekiel Elliott has been cleared of any wrongdoing relating
to the domestic violence allegations earlier this summer. With
that worry behind him, Zeke can focus on the task at hand –
his regular season NFL debut. The question is not whether Zeke
will succeed, it’s to what extent? How much will the Cowboys
really lean on their rookie? My guess: a lot. The best way to
ease the pressure on a rookie QB is to give the ball to the man
standing behind him and telling him to go run through the gaping
holes created by the best offensive line in football. In a high
scoring affair, there will be plenty of work for young Elliott.
Alfred Morris is nothing more than a handcuff.
Value Meter:
QB2: Dak Prescott (high end, rushing numbers may have him push
QB1 status)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (high end)
WR1: Dez Bryant (elite)
TE2: Jason Witten (Romo makes Witten go so no Romo = TE2 status
for Witten)
Bench: Terrance Williams (I can’t believe he’s still
the No.2)
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Giants
31 (homer pick) ^ Top
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers passing game is a cornucopia
of fantasy goodness. There is no receiver I enjoy discussing or
watching more than Antonio Brown. It’s a running joke that
Brown cannot be covered, except for the part where it’s
true. The Redskins will be helpless to stop AB and the best receiver
in football will remind everyone rather quickly why he has that
title. Double digit receptions and triple digit yardage are as
close to guaranteed as you can get. Ben Roethlisberger should
have no trouble shredding this secondary, but the other receiver
benefiting could be Markus Wheaton (shoulder) or Eli Rogers. Your
guess is as good as mine but I wouldn’t start either unless
Wheaton is ruled out.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell is probably entering
his final season as a Steeler given the off-field headaches he
causes. Once again, DeAngelo Williams is thrust into a feature
role. The assumption is he’s going to do what he did last
year but I’m a little hesitant to anoint him as an RB1.
Remember, he is 33 years old. Touchdowns are fluky so it’s
entire possible he reaps the benefits of the passing game’s
dominance, but I just don’t foresee a monster game from
DWill. He will be solid and serviceable, but those expecting superstar
numbers are going to be disappointed.
PIT
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins
enters his second year as the unquestioned starting QB and is
looking to build upon the success he had in the latter portion
of 2015. I would be glad to make a strong wager against him. Cousins
has been a below average quarterback for the majority of his career.
He had a magical second half run last season that inflated his
statistics. The saving grace for 2016 could be DeSean Jackson,
who is actually healthy (although he was healthy Week 1 last year,
for about three plays) and looks and spry as ever. Jackson will
likely be a WR2 this season, but he will do so in his typical
DeSean way – with a mix of WR1 and WR4 performances. Pierre
Garcon still exists, but his ceiling is 5-50 with the occasional
touchdown. The top option in this passing game is Jordan Reed.
He is without a doubt the second best pass catching TE in football
and will be an elite option producing WR1 type numbers for as
long as he can stay on the field. If he can somehow play 16 games,
you’re getting Gronk at a two-round discount. He’s
completely healthy for Week 1 so we will take it one week at a
time.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris has departed for Dallas
and left Washington with what I believe to be the worst running
back situation in the NFL. Matt Jones sits atop the depth chart,
but he’s still recovering from a sprained AC joint. He’s
expected to play Week 1, but with the NFL’s new injury designation
rules, there are going to be a whole lot more “questionables”
we have to sort through. If Jones can’t go, Rob Kelley and
Chris Thompson will share the load. Thompson is my favorite of
the Redskins backs, particularly in PPR leagues as he’s
the safest bet for positive production. Neither Kelley nor Jones
are particularly talented so regardless of who starts or what
the split is, I have no interest in either. I expect Thompson
to lead this backfield in fantasy points when it’s all said
and done, but this is not the week to start any Redskins running
back. The Steelers defense is underrated and is going to surprise
a few people this season and may very well be a top 10 unit.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Passing Game Thoughts: Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman used
a run-heavy offense last season in an effort to protect his inexperienced
starting quarterback but wasn’t afraid to let Tyrod Taylor
throw the ball downfield when he did call for the pass. It would
seem to follow logically that the team would open the offense
up more this season, but with Rex Ryan’s preference for
the “ground and pound” attack don’t be surprised
to see another season of conservative play calling. The Bills
lack serious weapons in the passing game outside of the future
superstar Sammy Watkins and the underrated tight end Charles Clay.
Expect a conservative game plan against a Baltimore defense that
was a decent unit last season against the pass. Taylor is one
of the league’s better running quarterbacks however so a
run heavy game plan doesn’t necessarily eliminate him from
being an asset for your fantasy team. Baltimore finished last
season as the 10th ranked pass defense allowing 233.6 passing
yards per game but did yield 30 passing touchdowns while only
grabbing six interceptions. It has been announced the Elvis Dumervil
will not suit up this week which will limit the Ravens’
pass rush, making things easier for the Bills young QB.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills led the league in rushing last
season behind solid seasons from veteran LeSean McCoy and unheralded
rookie Karlos Williams. Williams was released during the off-season
after reporting out of shape and then earning a drug related suspension
leaving the backup duties to veteran Reggie Bush and perhaps rookie
Jonathan Williams. McCoy is entering his age 28 season and while
he is still effective he has lost some of his explosion while
missing four games last season. On the positive side he will see
a heavy workload and perhaps earn back some of the goaline work
he lost to Williams with no true pounder on the roster. The Bills
will come out of the gates looking to exert their dominance on
the ground and will face a young Ravens’ defense that allowed
over 100 rushing yards per game last season.
BUF
FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Passing Game Thoughts: Believe it or not the Baltimore Ravens
led the NFL in pass attempts last season (676). Joe Flacco was
on pace to throw for 4,465 yards – by far his highest total
- when he tore his ACL in Week 10. The Marc Trestman offensive
scheme helped make Jay Cutler a viable fantasy quarterback and
gives Joe Flacco a high floor as well as a high ceiling in 2016.
The wide receiver depth chart is a tough one to figure out with
Steve Smith, entering his age 37 season, returning after a season-ending
Achilles injury and last season’s first round pick Breshad
Perriman still struggling to get on the field consistently. Kamar
Aiken, a solid but unspectacular wideout, led the team last season
and could play a significant role once again. Mike Wallace could
be back on the fantasy radar with the strong-armed Flacco under
center.
Surprisingly Buffalo’s defense was well below average last
season as opponents were able to throw for 3,972 yards and 30
touchdowns against them. This should give Flacco, and Mike Wallace
some confidence heading into this matchup. Young corner Ronald
Darby played very well last season, but shockingly for a Rex Ryan
defense the Bills finished second to last in sacks with only 21
total. The team released its best pass rusher in Mario Williams
so it will be up to the Ryan brothers to come up with schemes
that change their fortunes when getting after opposing passers.
Running Game Thoughts: If there is a team which is more confusing
for fantasy football players to figure out than Baltimore, I cannot
think of it. Baltimore will potentially run a four-man RBBC once
rookie Kenneth Dixon gets healthy in a few weeks. Shockingly,
Baltimore cut it’s supposed starting back Justin Forsett
earlier this week but he was quickly re-signed and announced himself
as the team’s starting back. However, third year runner
Terrance West has reportedly been the best back throughout training
camp and should receive some early down and short yardage work.
Meanwhile second year back Javorius Allen could be worked in as
a third-down back after showing well as a pass catcher last season.
West may be the best bet against an aggressive Bills’ defense,
but it’s probably best to avoid this situation until we
get a clearer picture of how things will shake out. The Bills
gave up close to 110 rushing yards per game last season so the
matchup is favorable at least.