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Inside the Matchup
Week 9
11/5/15; Updated: 11/6/15

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



CLE @ CIN | OAK @ PIT | STL @ MIN | ATL @ SF

CHI @ SD | MIA @ BUF | JAX @ NYJ | WAS @ NE

PHI @ DAL | GB @ CAR | TEN @ NO | NYG @ TB

DEN @ IND

Browns at Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh McCown had another stellar game in Week 8 throwing 3 touchdowns against a tough Arizona defense. He has been a pleasant surprise for a Cleveland team lacking many positive storylines. The journeyman has thrown for 271 yards per game and has an 11:4 touchdown to interception ratio on the season. He has however also shown a penchant for getting nicked up due to his reckless style, missing time with a concussion, a shoulder injury and now missing this week’s game due to a rib injury suffered against Arizona. That means the troubled Johnny Manziel will once again see the field for the Browns. While at this point in a lost season one could argue that the Browns would be better off seeing what they have in the young signal caller, it would be unfair to bench McCown based on what he’s done for the team. Also, perhaps a second half surge could build confidence for the 2016 season and the team could eke one more year out of a 37 year-old McCown. The other pleasant surprise for this offense has been 30 year-old tight end Gary Barnidge who has 40 receptions for 567 yards with 6 touchdowns, after accumulating only 44 receptions with 3 touchdown catches during the first six years of his career. Barnidge 6’6” and 250 pounds has been a redzone monster for McCown and looks the part on the field. The rest of the pass catchers are made up of undersized and mediocre options. Speaking of mediocre options, Brian Hartline managed to be on the receiving end of two of McCown’s touchdown passes last week, but fantasy owners will be spared from chasing those points as Hartline (concussion) has been ruled out as well. With Manziel starting the Battle of Ohio, a downgrade to the Browns’ entire passing game should be expected.

The Bengals defense managed to spoil the return of Big Ben Roethlisberger last week and is allowing 258.4 passing yards per game while giving up 9 passing touchdowns and grabbing 8 interceptions on the season. This aggressive unit has already recorded 20 sacks in seven games and will be further bolstered by the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict who made his season debut last week in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are arguably the most complete team in the league and will get a chance to show it off to a national audience.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland running game has been nothing short of ugly this year. Isaiah Crowell, Robert Turbin and rookie Duke Johnson have formed a three-man committee which has been woefully ineffective. Head Coach Mike Petine has expressed a desire to get the rookie Johnson more involved, as he has shown to be the most explosive back, but his effectiveness is based on his abilities in the passing game and he’s only averaging 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. He does have 33 receptions for 331 yards and a touchdown as a receiver and with the Browns looking more effective passing the ball than running it, it’s logical to forsee him getting more touches as the season progresses. Robert Turbin has been the least effective runner but the team has insisted on using him in the rotation since he’s returned from his high ankle sprain. As stated in previous weeks, the Browns plan coming into the season was to be a ball control offense but their defense has not played as well as expected and the team has instead turned into an aerial show. Because of this, Crowell has not been able to get into any kind of a rhythm that a power-back like him would need to be effective, making Johnson the only dependable option for fantasy owners.

It seems unlikely that the Browns can turn their running game around this week as the Bengals are strong against the run. They have limited the opposition to 110.1 yards per game with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed. It could get ugly this week however if the Browns get too one dimensional allowing the Bengals to pin their ears back and go after the inexperienced Manziel. Manziel played recklessly when forced into action previously and if he is under constant siege on Thursday Night, this game could get away from Cleveland early.

Projections:
Johnny Manziel: 205 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 45 rush yds
Isaiah Crowell: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Duke Johnson: 25 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Travis Benjamin: 25 rec yds
Taylor Gabriel: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Gary Barnidge: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is coming off of his worst statistical game of the season, but still managed to outplay Ben Roethlisberger in crunch time keeping his team undefeated. Dalton threw for 231 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions last Sunday, but he once again lead his team to a 4th quarter come from behind victory. Dalton has been spreading the ball around instead of force feeding A.J. Green like he had in the past, but this week he went back to his old friend in crunch time. Green finished with 11 catches for 118 yards and caught Dalton’s sole touchdown pass to put the Bengals ahead. This week the team hits the national spotlight against a porous Cleveland secondary that will be missing Joe Haden and Donte Whitner. Oh, baby for those of you owning a piece of this passing game.

The Browns are the 24th ranked pass defense and are allowing 258.4 yards per game and have given up 15 TDs through the air with only 5 interceptions. Star cornerback Joe Haden has been banged up most of the season and will miss this week’s game exposing the lack of depth in the secondary. The Browns’ are in desperation mode and playing their cross-state rivals but it’s unlikely to make much of a difference here.

Running Game Thoughts: “The arrow is pointing up” on Jeremy Hill or so says offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. Hill has struggled during most of his starts this season but is coming off back-to-back 15-carry games and is starting to inch his yards per carry stats back up to respectable levels. Hill has looked far more tentative and sluggish than he did last season. Perhaps the leg injury he suffered early in the season has slowed him down or maybe it’s his attempt to emulate Le’Veon Bell’s patience that has caused him to struggle, but either way his owners are hoping he’s on the right path now. Giovani Bernard has looked better in most games but he took a backseat last week in Pittsburgh with a surprisingly low three touch day. This is a pure RBBC, but both backs could be viable starters given the proper matchups and this week is about as proper as they come.

Expect both Hill and Bernard to see a decent amount of carries and excel against the horrific Browns’ run defense. The Browns are allowing 147 yards per game, at 4.8 yards per carry on the ground and have yielded 8 rushing touchdowns. If The Bengals come out and punch them in the mouth early, the Browns may just lie down on the mat and not fight back.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 335 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 40 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 45 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 75 rec yds, 2 TDs

Prediction: Bengals 38, Browns 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Derek Carr put up 333 yards and 4 touchdowns on the (usually) tough Jets defense. Carr was aided by the Jets inability to cover and tackle last Sunday, but his performance also featured some outstanding throws most notably on his two scoring strikes to wide receiver Andre Holmes. On a day where rookie stud receiver Amari Cooper was held mostly in check, Carr was able to utilize Holmes, Michael Crabtree and his running backs to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. Carr who was the fourth quarterback taken in the 2014 draft is looking like the best of the bunch in year two, with 1,793 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes against only 3 interceptions while leading the Raiders to a 4-3 record. Carr relied strictly on the short and quick passing game last season but has increased his yards per attempt up to 7.8 in his sophomore season. While Todd Gurley is the leading candidate to win offensive rookie of the year honors, Cooper isn’t going to let him have it unchallenged. Cooper has 38 receptions for 565 yards with 3 scores and has shown to be a pristine route runner with sure hands and better speed than expected. With Crabtree having a career renaissance across from the rookie, Carr should continue to produce like a fantasy QB1 most weeks.

The young Steelers’ secondary is growing into a solid unit and shouldn’t be an easy mark in Heinz Field this week. They are allowing 265.9 yards per game and have yielded 12 scores through the air in eight games. The Steelers have been able to manufacture a pass rush and have also grabbed 7 interceptions without yet fielding a truly dominant player in their defensive unit. Carr’s quick release should help negate some of the pass rush, but the Steelers should come out angry and ready to play at home after losing last week’s home game against a division rival where they had a fourth quarter lead.

Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray was handed the starting job this offseason and has not disappointed. He ran for 113 yards against the league’s top run defense last week and is averaging 76.3 yards per game on the ground while also contributing in the passing game. Murray is a tall upright runner who takes his share of big hits, so health is always a concern, but his power and speed combination should keep him among the league rushing leaders if he does stay healthy. Former converted corner back, who was shifted back to running back, Taiwan Jones put on a show last week juking his way to a big play touchdown after taking a short pass from Carr. Roy Helu was expected to back up Murray after he was signed in the offseason, but it’s been Jones manning the No. 2 role and distancing himself from Helu with each passing week.

The Steelers run defense has been stout thus far, which could force the Raiders to abandon the run, especially if the Steelers jump on their jetlagged opponent quickly. The Steelers are allowing only 97.0 rushing yards per game, and only two rushing touchdowns on the season.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Latavius Murray: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Taiwan Jones: 20 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Amari Cooper: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 55 rec yds
Clive Walford: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger did not jump-start the Pittsburgh passing attack as much as one would have thought after returning from his MCL sprain last week. While he was facing a tough Bengals defense, Ben’s performance was well below par as he completed 28-of-45 passes for 262 yards and a touchdown. He also threw three interceptions which were a big part of the loss. Ben was perhaps a little rusty after a four-week layoff and showed some signs of the knee affecting his mobility, but those issues should start to fade, perhaps as soon as this week. Antonio Brown owners had to be pleased to see Ben back, as he was targeted 11 times, with six completions for 47 yards and a touchdown. Brown was targeted deep on two of Ben’s interceptions so he could have had a much bigger day. Tight end Heath Miller was also pleased to see his quarterback back on the field, as the forgotten man was back in the saddle as Roethlisberger’s security blanket catching 10 balls for 108 yards. This was and will be one of the best passing offenses in the league, so last week’s down performance should be ignored moving forward. The Raiders weak secondary coming into Heinz Field should help get things moving back in the right direction.

Oakland has allowed at least 250 yards passing yards in every game this season. On average they are allowing 302.1 yards per game through the air and have given up 13 passing touchdowns in 7 games. Remarkably at 39 years of age, Charles Woodson is having a season for the ages, but the rest of the secondary is inexperienced and struggling. The lack of a consistent pass rush from the front seven has not helped the overmatched secondary either.

Running Game Thoughts: Not only did the Steelers lose the game last week but they suffered an even more devastating loss when star running back Le’Veon Bell went down for the season with a torn MCL. Veteran DeAngelo Williams, who played very well in Bell’s absence during a two game suspension will once again take over as the feature back. Williams should see a heavy workload. During those first two weeks he was on the field for 84 and 93 percent of the snaps, respectively, and was second in the NFL with 41 carries. Even at 31 years of age, Williams gained 204 yards and scored 3 touchdowns during those first two games and will obviously be a fantasy asset going forward. Jordan Todman and the newly signed Isaiah Pead will be fighting for the scraps behind Williams. For now they should likely be left on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of leagues.

It will not come easy for Williams and Pittsburgh this week however as the Raiders have been extremely strong against the run. They have limited the opposition to 82.9 yards per game this season with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 345 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
DeAngelo Williams: 65 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordan Todman: 15 rush yds
Antonio Brown: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 25 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 30, Raiders 24 ^ Top

Rams at Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Nick Foles has been the ultimate caretaker quarterback for a Rams team built on its running game and strong defense. Foles has not surpassed 200 passing yards since Week 1. His receivers have not been reliable, and his best overall wideout, Brian Quick, has not been healthy all season after bilateral shoulder surgeries during the offseason. However at times, like last week, Foles’ passing numbers have been bailed out by former first round pick Tavon Austin’s run after the catch ability. Last week Austin took a short screen pass 66 yards for a score. The 5’8” speedster has become the de facto No. 1 WR for the team. He’s leading the team in targets and is being used in the running game as well. Austin has 6 total touchdowns on the season. Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey and tight end Jared Cook have had their moments but this offense is barely able to support one fantasy wide receiver so other than Austin the rest can be ignored.

The Vikings’ pass defense has managed to be a to be an above average unit allowing 229.3 yards per game and only 9 touchdown passes allowed in seven games. The unit shouldn’t see much of a challenge this week since the Rams aren’t looking to be a dynamic passing attack. The Vikings haven’t been able to force many turnovers which is something that could come back to haunt them once they start facing better competition.

Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley has been everything the Rams hoped for when they used the 10th overall pick in the draft on him in May. After sitting out the first two games and only seeing six carries in Week 3, he has simply been unstoppable the last four games. He’s the first rookie running back ever to rush for more than 125 yards in four consecutive games and despite only having really played in four games, he’s second in the league in runs over 20 yards and first in runs of 40 or more yards. He has 575 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 115 yards per game even when counting his 9 yards gained in Week 3. Gurley is a monster at 6’1’ and 227 pounds with elite level speed. It will be interesting to see Gurley battle it out with the gold standard at running back for the last decade, Adrian Peterson, this Sunday.

The Vikings will present a stiff challenge as they are allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game on the season with only 4 scores on the ground. The Vikings should be fully aware that the Rams will be looking to run the ball down their throats and will need to be up to that challenge in what should be a classic slugfest.

Projections:
Nick Foles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Todd Gurley: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Tre Mason: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 65 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Kenny Britt: 30 rec yds
Jared Cook: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater followed up his best game of the season in Week 7 with yet another subpar effort in Week 8. The Vikings are sitting at 5-2, but that’s not at all attributable to their passing game, as things just have not clicked so far. Through seven games Bridgewater has just 6 touchdown passes with 5 interceptions and is only averaging 218 passing yards per game. If it wasn’t for the breakout of rookie Stefon Diggs the Vikings would have no passing game at all. Bridgewater’s only touchdown pass last week was a result of a short pass to the rookie where he made a beautiful run beating several defenders to score from 40 yards out. On the season, Diggs now has 25 catches for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns, all coming during the last four games. Otherwise, outside of an occasional touchdown grab by tight end Kyle Rudolph there’s nothing here to excite fantasy owners. With Bridgewater and Foles “slinging” the ball this Sunday, it could look like a game out of the 1970s.

The Vikings will face one of their stiffest challenges this week as they face the Rams’ top 5 defense. The Rams are allowing 230 passing yards per game and have only given up a league lowest 5 touchdown passes. The Vikings will likely look to establish Adrian Peterson and rely on their defense per usual, but if they need to open things they could be in trouble.

Running Game Thoughts: This week the old man Adrian Peterson will be looking to hold onto his title of “best running back in football” for just a little longer, as the old guard meets the new guard. Peterson should be fired up to show that he’s still the man, with Gurley receiving all the accolades in recent weeks. Peterson is not showing any signs of age and is still showing big play ability averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 633 rushing yards and 3 scores on the season. The Vikings have smartly built their offensive game plan around AP, so volume should never be an issue especially in what looks to be a close defensive battle this week.

The Rams have also been one of the league’s top run defenses allowing 98.1 yards per game and only 3 scores on the ground. The Rams front seven is as tough as they come and will likely be game planning to stop Peterson as most teams do. It should be a classic strength on strength matchup in Minnesota.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Adrian Peterson: 125 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 10 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 45 rec yds
Stefon Diggs: 60 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Rams 17, Vikings 13 ^ Top

Falcons @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It was only the second time he’s cracked the 300-yard mark this season, but Matt Ryan made it count this past week when he nearly hit 400 yards through the air in a win over the Buccaneers. Ryan’s 397 yards were the most he’s accumulated since Week 1. This was a welcome return to fantasy relevance for Ryan who had struggled in recent weeks, compiling an average of just 12 fantasy points per game over his previous four starts. Along with Ryan’s big day came a huge day from wide receiver Julio Jones who currently sits as the top-scoring wide receiver in both standard scoring and PPR formats and might very well be the top receiver for the remainder of the season. Jones caught 12 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs and now that he’s fully healthy, more of those big games should be in line. Another player who stepped up in a big way this past week was tight end Jacob Tamme who set season highs in both receptions (10) and yards (103) while scoring his first touchdown of the season. Tamme had only made more than four receptions once this season so trusting him as a TE1 going forward is a bit risky, but the Falcons have been looking for someone to excel at the tight end position ever since Tony Gonzalez retired and Tamme does have the potential to play a pivotal role in this offense down the stretch.

Here in Week 9, this passing game will have another opportunity for a big game as they go up against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has been depleted by injuries and retirements and has struggled across the board. While this unit has done fairly well against the pass over the past two weeks, those performances came against Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, who have both struggled this season from a fantasy standpoint. Ryan and the Falcons are a much tougher matchup and a unit that can certainly exploit this defense that has already given up five games of 15 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Jones is practically a lock to be targeted 10 or more times this week, so get him in your lineups and expect another elite performance. Tamme could be considered for a bye week filler role given his recent uptick in targets with Leonard Hankerson possibly missing another game with his hamstring injury. Roddy White is the only other player to consider for fantasy purposes within this offense, but he is far past his prime and shouldn’t be considered as anything other than a desperation play in deep leagues at this point.

Running Game Thoughts: Some of us liked Devonta Freeman more than Tevin Coleman coming into the year, but no one could have possibly seen this coming. Halfway through the regular season, Freeman is now the fourth-highest scoring overall player in fantasy football (standard scoring) and the only non-QB in the top-10. In PPR formats, he is the highest scoring overall player. This has happened due to a heavy workload from the Falcons which has seen him touch the ball 192 times already this season. While this workload might have to be reduced a bit down the stretch to preserve his health for a potential playoff run, Freeman is touching the ball as much or more than any other back in the league and that gives him an incredibly high floor on a weekly basis, almost regardless of matchup. Freeman has scored 11 or more fantasy points in standard scoring formats in every game since Week 1. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown in either of his past two games, Freeman has still been getting it done from a fantasy standpoint, rushing for 204 yards while adding eight receptions for 57 yards.

Things couldn’t be setup much better for another monster game from Freeman as we head into Week 9. The 49ers have been horrendous against opposing running backs this season as they’ve conceded the third-highest fantasy points per game to the position on the year. The 49ers have conceded an average of 20.8 fantasy points (standard scoring) per game to running backs and they’ve only held an opposing team’s running backs to fewer than 18 points in two of their eight contests. Even better for Freeman is that the 49ers have been very giving to backs that catch the ball as they’re tied for the third-most receptions given up to the position on the year. While Tevin Coleman will almost certainly touch the ball a handful of times, the vast majority of the touches should go to Freeman who could very well end up as the top-scoring back in fantasy again this week.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 270 pass yds, 2 TD
Devonta Freeman: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 35 rec yds
Tevin Coleman: 20 rush yds
Julio Jones: 130 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy White: 30 rec yds
Jacob Tamme: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It appears as though the Colin Kaepernick experiment may finally be over. After another disastrous performance in Week 8 wherein he threw for just 162 yards and no scores, Kaepernick has been benched by the team in favor of former top-10 NFL Draft pick Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert had a terrible run during his first three years in the league as a member of the Jaguars as he completed just 53 percent of his passes with a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23 touchdowns to 24 interceptions. Gabbert found his new home in San Francisco in 2014 but he has not seen any meaningful playing time in over two full seasons. Those looking for optimism here can point to Gabbert’s pre-season performance this year when he completed over 82 percent of his passes. Still, those numbers came primarily against backup or even third and fourth-string defenders, so expecting him to come anywhere near that in his first start is a bit unrealistic. To make matters worse, Gabbert may be without top receiver Anquan Boldin who missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury and has not yet been able to practice leading up to Week 9. Boldin is a tough player who can fight through a lot, but with the 49ers in full-on rebuild mode, there may not be a rush to get him back on the field. Instead, look for Jerome Simpson to be the team’s top target in Week 9, especially now that tight end Vernon Davis has been traded to the Broncos. Simpson led the team with 10 targets in Week 8 in his first game back from suspension. Torrey Smith has been a disappointment this season and has not caught more than three passes in a game since Week 2, but he does have still possess some explosiveness and is capable of going deep for a score at any time.

Week 9 doesn’t give the 49ers passing game much hope, either, as they unit will be up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. The Falcons have only given up nine passing touchdowns in eight games while also forcing eight interceptions. Only two teams – the Texans and the Giants – have thrown for more than one touchdown against this defense. This San Francisco offense now might be the worst in all of football, so try to avoid any of these players if at all possible.

Running Game Thoughts: The injury armageddon of Week 8 took a lot of high-end casualties, so it’s not surprising that San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde has been forgotten about by many fantasy analysts, but Hyde is still dealing with a foot injury that held him out in Week 8 and he hasn’t yet practiced leading up to Week 9. While the team won’t officially rule him out, Hyde is unlikely to play and with Reggie Bush being placed on season-ending IR after tearing his MCL on a slippery concrete surface in St. Louis this past week, the 49ers running back position – much like their quarterback position – is in complete disarray. Kendall Gaskins stepped in and got some playing time in Week 8 after Bush’s injury, but the team also made a move earlier this week when they signed free agent veteran Pierre Thomas. Thomas, who spent the first eight years of his career in New Orleans, is primarily a complementary pass-catching back, but may be asked to take on the lead role at least until Hyde returns. Thomas will be joining the team with limited knowledge of the playbook which does lead to some potential offensive constraints, but with a new quarterback also starting, there’s a good chance that the 49ers’ playbook in Week 9 will be very limited anyway.

While we don’t know exactly who will serve as the 49ers’ top tailback this week, we do know that the Falcons run defense has been their weak point so far this season. The unit has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs thus far and they’ve given up double-digit fantasy days to the position in all but one game. The 49ers did also add Shaun Draughn, who was cut earlier this season by the Browns, so there are definitely some question marks at the running back position heading into Week 9, but if you had to take a chance on one of these players, Thomas is likely the player who has the most upside, especially in PPR formats, given his history of being an excellent third down back.

Projections:
Blaine Gabbert: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 10 rush yds
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Kendall Gaskins: 25 rush yds
Jerome Simpson: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Torrey Smith: 35 rec yds
Quinton Patton: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Falcons 31, 49ers 13 ^ Top

Bears @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: There may be hope after all for Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. After missing Weeks 2 through 5 with an injury, the team’s top receiver returned in a huge fashion in Week 6, catching eight passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. It’s performances like this that made him a second-round pick in many leagues. After the team’s Week 7 bye, Jeffery did it again in Week 8 when he caught 10 passes for 116 yards and another touchdown. He has now been targeted at least 11 times in each of his three starts this season and is performing at an elite level. Tight end Martellus Bennett has had an up-and-down season, which is not uncommon of the tight end position, but he’s only the No. 13-scoring tight end in the league at the moment in standard scoring formats. Bennett is an elite talent who is certainly startable in all formats, but his points have come in chunks throughout the majority of his career, making him one of the biggest boom-or-bust options at the position. Jeffery and Bennett have been the only reliable targets so far this season for quarterback Jay Cutler, who has finished with 14 or more fantasy points in five of his six starts so far this season. Cutler is not a great QB1 but he does have upside as a QB2 in two-quarterback leagues as he has shown a tendency to blow up with big games from time to time.

With the running game in flux, Cutler and the Bears passing game will have to step up in a big way in Week 9 against a San Diego pass defense that has been good at times, but struggled at times as well. They’ve given up multiple passing touchdowns in five of their eight games this season which does bode well for Cutler and the Bears. Better yet, they’ve also only forced four interceptions, which should give Cutler some confidence as he is known to throw his fair share of picks. Another player to consider in deep formats this week is Marquess Wilson, who could get some additional playing time if Eddie Royal, who left Week 8’s game with a knee injury and hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday, is unable to play.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the primary casualties of the Week 8 injury onslaught was Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte. Forte went down with a knee injury which the team has been very quiet about, but it is believed to be an MCL injury and it is almost guaranteed that he will miss this week’s game and at least a couple more to come. With Forte out, the Bears are expected to turn to rookie running back Jeremy Langford. Ka’Deem Carey could get some playing time in obvious passing downs, but the Bears seem to be very comfortable having Langford on the field for the majority of their snaps. When Forte went down in Week 8, Langford took over and rushed the ball 12 times for 46 yards in the Bears’ overtime loss to the Vikings.

Langford becomes an interesting Flex option here in Week 9 as he will be running the ball against one of the worst run defenses in the league. No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than the Chargers this season. This defense has conceded at least 12 points (standard scoring) to the position in every game and they’ve given up 19 or more points in all but two of their games. As long as the Bears defense can keep the Chargers’ offense in check, Langford should have a good opportunity at fantasy production this week.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Jeremy Langford: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Marquess Wilson: 50 rec yds
Martellus Bennett: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Following another monster game from Philip Rivers, the San Diego QB is now the second-highest scoring quarterback in fantasy football this season. Rivers cracked the 300-yard mark for the fifth straight game and he has now thrown for multiple touchdown passes in all but one game so far this season. With the Chargers struggling to get their running game working, Rivers has been forced to throw the ball more than any other quarterback in the league. The primary beneficiary of all of that passing has been wide receiver Keenan Allen whose 67 receptions are second-most in the league. Unfortunately, Allen was one of the many players whose season ended this past week when he suffered what is being described as a lacerated kidney. With Allen out, the Chargers will have to look elsewhere. The player expected to get the biggest increase in work is Stevie Johnson who has primarily played out of the slot for the Chargers this season and could take over as the team’s top possession receiver. Malcom Floyd might also see an uptick in targets but he remains primarily a deep threat so it seems unlikely that he will be getting many of the targets that would’ve gone Allen’s way. Tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green (sprained ankle) may also get additional looks, but with Gates dealing with a knee injury, it could be difficult to predict which player – if either – is going to get enough targets to be a TE1.

Even without Allen, this matchup against the Bears looks like another potential 300-plus yard, multiple touchdown game for Rivers and the San Diego passing game. The Bears have been absolutely lit up in multiple games this season, including conceding four passing touchdown games to both the Cardinals and Lions as well as a three-touchdown game to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. With Rivers and the Chargers passing more than any other team in the league, there’s a real chance that San Diego passes the ball 50 or more times in Week 9. Despite being without Allen, that many pass attempts almost certainly will lead to a QB1 performance for Rivers and a nice day for multiple San Diego pass catchers.

Running Game Thoughts: San Diego is passing the ball a ton, but that doesn’t mean they necessarily want the offense to be that way. They’ve done their best to give the ball to their first round NFL Draft pick, Melvin Gordon, but things just haven’t worked out. Gordon is averaging a measly 3.7 yards per carry and he is, shockingly, yet to score a touchdown despite touching the ball 121 times on the year. With Gordon struggling, the Chargers have had to rely heavily on their pass-catching back, Danny Woodhead, who has been an unbelievable source of fantasy production, especially in PPR formats. Woodhead is currently the No. 3 scoring running back in PPR, but he’s still been good in standard scoring leagues where he ranks ninth at the position. Woodhead’s 40 receptions are second-most in the league, but he’s also been able to supplement that by scoring four touchdowns on the year. Unfortunately, Woodhead’s production has been a bit unpredictable, as he has produced single-digit fantasy numbers in two games, including this past week against the Ravens. Woodhead rushed the ball three times for just nine yards and despite Rivers throwing the ball 37 times, Woodhead made just two receptions on the day. That seems to be an outlier, though, as Woodhead has been able to make at least four receptions in all but two games this season.

The Chicago defense has struggled over the past few seasons, but their run defense has been far better than their pass defense. Ranked 16th in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs, the Bears have had a “bend but don’t break” philosophy, having conceded just four touchdowns to the positions in their seven games. They’ve given up their fair share of yardage on the ground, however, as every opponent they’ve faced has rushed for at least 70 yards against them. Certainly the Chargers will again roll out a pass-heavy offensive gameplan again in Week 9, but there’s hope that the duo of Gordon and Woodhead might be able to contribute something on the ground.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 320 pass yds, 3 TD
Melvin Gordon: 70 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 10 rush yds, 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: 80 red yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 65 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Ladarius Green: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Chargers 27, Bears 24 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Bills - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill spent one week dressed as Tom Brady and then promptly went right back to being Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill threw for 300 yards last week, most of it in garbage time with 2 INTs and no TDs. It was Tannehill’s first game of the season without a TD pass, but alarmingly, his fourth game of the season with multiple interceptions. Lost in the shuffle of the Dolphins lackluster effort is Jarvis Landry, who continues to produce effectively week to week. Landry is much better in PPR formats and even better in leagues that award return yards, but is a WR2 in any format. His floor is Antonio Brown-lite. Rishard Matthews’ usage was very encouraging as he saw a game high 12 targets and continues to be a reliable WR3. He is not going to blow the roof off with scoring, but he has a high weekly floor as well.

The Bills have given up 15 scores through the air and allow 255.4 passing yards per game. They have also forced 8 interceptions. Both Dolphins receivers should be safe starts and Tannehill will likely find the end zone at least once. He is also just as likely to turn it over a couple times. Expect a very up and down performance, but one that is more of a problem in real life than in fantasy.

Running Game Thoughts: After two fantastic games, Lamar Miller came crashing back down to reality, totaling a frighteningly low 15 yards on 9 carries against New England. He salvaged his fantasy day by falling into the end zone, but make no mistake, this was an ugly day at the office for Miller. Part of the blame can be attributed to what appeared to be complete and utter fear from the Dolphins. It seemed as though they felt like they had to keep up with the Patriots scoring from the beginning. Expecting the Patriots to throw early and often, the Dolphins opened up doing the same, abandoning their previously effective ball control strategy. Their beliefs became a self-fulfilling prophecy as they moved away from Miller too early and ultimately allowed the Patriots to build up the big lead they were afraid of, forcing Tannehill to throw more than he should. Even against a Bills defense that has been strong against the run this season, allowing 91.9 yards per game, look for the Dolphins to once again recommit to Miller. He should see upwards of 15 carries in what should be a much more competitive game.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 240 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 70 rec yds
Rishard Matthews: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Cameron: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Early reports have been nothing but positive concerning Tyrod Taylor’s status. He practiced in full as early as Monday as looks ready to go after an MCL injury cost him the last couple games. The Bills certainly need him back as EJ Manuel is not good at football. Before getting hurt, Taylor was completing 70 percent of his passes and putting up QB1 numbers despite attempting fewer throws per game than all relevant QBs. It appears as though there is a legitimate chance Sammy Watkins is able to play this week. Rex Ryan is “hopeful” that Watkins is ready. While that isn’t totally encouraging, beat reporters seem to believe Watkins is going to be active, which would be great news for the Bills. Merely having him out there improves their offense.

The Dolphins are a decidedly average pass defense with a shutdown corner in Brent Grimes. Charles Clay should be in line for a large amount of targets. Even with his poor receiving options, Taylor has produced well, due in part to his running ability. The last time these teams played, however, it wasn’t his running ability that propelled him to QB1 numbers. He ran the ball just 3 times for 12 yards, but threw for 277 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs back in Week 3. The Dolphins are unlikely to let that happen again, but that doesn’t mean Taylor isn’t a rock solid start this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The week off did wonders for the Bills as it not only gave LeSean McCoy a week to rest his balky hamstring, but gave Karlos Williams a week to rest his brain. McCoy is now the healthiest he has been all season and Williams looks to be fully over his concussion. The two were quite the formidable one-two punch early in the year. Their return to full health should mercifully spell the end of Boobie Dixon and Boom Herron, who showed absolutely nothing in their brief time in the spotlight.

The Dolphins have struggled to defend the run and already were blasted by Williams for 110 yards on 12 carries in Week 3. Rex Ryan loves to run and the Bills aren’t going to change their offensive strategy after it worked so well before. With Shady back to full strength, he and Williams may combine for over 30 carries and both could return starter value, with Shady being the preferred option.

Projections:
Tyrod Taylor: 220 pass yds, 2 TDs, 30 rush yds, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Karlos Williams: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 40 rec yds
Robert Woods: 30 rec yds
Charles Clay: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 24 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Jets - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars were granted a much needed week off following their game overseas. This week, they return to action for a road date with the Jets and although they sit at 2-5, their season is far from over given how deplorable the AFC South is. Blake Bortles has certainly taken a step forward this year, but it is not as big as most realize. The only real difference between 2015 Bortles and 2014 Bortles is the increase in TD passes, which can be attributed more to the rise of Allen Robinson and the overall improvement of the offense. Bortles has already eclipsed his previous season TD total of 11 (15 this year) and obviously a season where a QB is on pace to throw for 30-plus scores is a welcome one for fantasy owners. The rest of his numbers aren’t much different. Bortles is completing just 55.7% of his passes, good for last in the league among current starting QBs (only Ryan Mallett is worse among qualified starters). He has also thrown 8 interceptions, on pace for 17, which is exactly the number of picks he threw last season. As long as the TDs are there, Bortles will remain a QB1, but I caution those getting excited about any sort of “leap” from Bortles. On the other hand, those getting excited about Robinson have every reason to do so. His recent stats are a little inflated as he’s scored 4 TDs over his last three games, but even without the scores, Robinson’s numbers indicate this is no fluke. He has alternated between 12 and 9 targets each game since Week 2 and had no fewer than 68 yards. He has been a WR1. Not bad for a guy drafted to be a WR3.

The bad news is Robinson leaves one island (England) for another island (Revis). Revis just held Amari Cooper to 46 yards on 5 catches in a game where the Jets gave up 333 yards and 4 TDs to Derek Carr. While those numbers are certainly not encouraging for the Jets defense as a whole, they speak volumes to the ability of Revis to contain Cooper. The Jets defense had its worst game of the season last week and to make matters worse, Antonio Cromartie had to leave the game late with an injury. On second thought, maybe that wasn’t the worst thing considering how poor Cromartie has played this season. Notwithstanding the previous two games, I expect a better outing against the Jaguars. Revis is going to cause Robinson a ton of trouble, but that should open things up for Allen Hurns, much like Cooper’s blanketing opened things up for Crabtree last week.

Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon was questionable with a groin injury for the Jaguars Week 7 contest against the Bills. There was nothing questionable about his performance as it was easily the best of his young career. Yeldon rushed for 115 yards on 20 carries and scored his first rushing TD. Now with a week off to rest his groin, he should be back to 100% for Week 9. Fantasy owners were probably scratching their heads when Yeldon sliced and diced his way through the Bills defense only to see Toby Gerhart check in for the goal line carries. To the surprise of no one who has seen Gerhart play, he got stuffed on all 4 of his attempts. The Jaguars actually were able to run a fifth goal line play due to penalty. That carry went to Tyson Alualu because Gus Bradley is apparently trying to lose his job. That’s going to change this week. If the Jaguars get to the goal line, expect Yeldon to remain in the game. He has earned that right.

The problem lies in actually getting to that point. The Jets run defense is tops in the league, allowing just 78.1 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. They have allowed just two rushing TDs and three rushes of 20 yards or more. That’s including Latavius Murray’s season best performance against the Jets, racking up 113 yards on 20 carries. They should bounce back so while the volume will undoubtedly be there for Yeldon, consider him nothing more than a low end RB2.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
T.J. Yeldon: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Allen Robinson: 45 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: As someone who enjoys watching football and the subtle nuances of the game, I cannot remember wanting to bang my head against a wall more often than when watching Geno Smith masquerade as a professional quarterback. It was painful to watch him roll out of the pocket, look downfield, see no one open, and then instead of throw it away, just tuck the ball and run out of bounds or take a sack. He did this multiple times. In a season where I’ve had the misfortune of sitting through games quarterbacked by Michael Vick, Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, and Colin Kaepernick, I can confidently state that none of them looked as lost and confused as Geno Smith (although Blaine Gabbert might give him a run for his money this week). Smith was so bad filling in for Ryan Fitzpatrick that the Jets did not even wait until the end of the game to start making calls about free agent QBs. Fitzpatrick is going to need surgery to repair the torn ligaments in his left thumb, but Todd Bowles has gone on record stating Fitz is going to play through the injury. Smith also left the game late after taking a huge hit. He apparently has left shoulder and abdomen issues, but says he’ll be fine for this week’s game. He practiced in full on Thursday so if Fitzpatrick is forced out of this week’s contest, Smith will be coming in.

Fitzpatrick being able to play is a boon for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker for as long as he can stay on the field. Speaking of Marshall, he also left the game with a toe injury, but was able to return until he left the game with an ankle injury, which he was also able to return from. Marshall is tough as nails and has a history of playing through injuries. He will be a game time decision and will likely play, but even if he suits up, you cannot expect him to be his usual dominant self. As for Decker, he had another game where he caught a TD, but he was also nowhere to be seen on the Jets final drive. He played through a questionable tag and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. He is expected to play, but another game time decision is coming. The Jaguars have been beatable through the air and have allowed 12 passing TDs this season, but with all of the injuries to the Jets offense, it is going to be tough to trust anyone. If Marshall and Decker play, you start them, but expectations must be lowered given that they are both clearly nowhere near 100%.

Running Game Thoughts: Fitzpatrick’s injury sapped the life out of the entire offense last week. After looking like a man possessed for much of the season, Chris Ivory could muster no more than 17 yards on 15 carries in a truly wretched performance. Last week’s effort should do nothing to prevent the Jets from feeding Ivory this week. The Jaguars previously stout run defense has seen their rushing yards against average balloon to over 100 yards. They still allow just 3.5 yards per carry, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Ivory given the expected volume. The Jets do not have a choice, especially considering Ivory is the healthiest relevant player in the offense. He may see 25 carries. Ivory is still averaging 4.5 yards per carry and is third in the league with 19.2 rushes per game. With the three key cogs in the passing game banged up, Ivory is the man to pick up the slack.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 240 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Chris Ivory: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Jets 24, Jaguars 16 ^ Top

Redskins @ Patriots - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins was able to take a hard earned week off after playing arguably the best game of his career in Week 7. His play was nothing short of brilliant against the Bucs, throwing for 317 yards on 33-of-40 passing with 3 TDs and no interceptions. He orchestrated a comeback from down 24-0 in the 2nd quarter, culminating in a postgame outburst of joy nothing short of legendary (we’ll be seeing that one for years). It was a masterful performance made even better considering the complete absence of a run game. This one game notwithstanding, Cousins still has just one more TD than INT on the season and is averaging just 6.5 yards per completion. Helping his cause this week could be the return of DeSean Jackson. DJax sits on zero fantasy points on the year as he pulled his hamstring on his first target of the season and has been sidelined ever since. An initial 2-4 week timeline ballooned into eight weeks, but on Monday, Jackson declared himself ready to go. It is important to note that Jackson remained limited in practice as of Thursday so although he says he’s playing, make sure his coaches feel the same way Sunday morning.

Assuming he’s not lying to us, Jackson’s return gives Cousins a much needed deep threat, something he’s been lacking during Jackson’s absence. His return likely spells the end of the Jamison Crowder experience. Crowder will still see the field, but is firmly behind Jackson, Reed, and Garcon in the pecking order. Speaking of Jordan Reed, the week off certainly helped him heal up his oft injured self. His next injury is always just around the corner, but for now, he’s locked and loaded as an elite TE1. The Redskins passing attack faces off against a Patriots pass defense that reminded everyone, especially Ryan Tannehill, how much of a fluke Tannehill’s Week 7 explosion really was. They were absolutely menacing last Thursday, not allowing Tannehill to get anything going. Tannehill is certainly a flawed quarterback, but nowhere near as flawed as Cousins. The Patriots defense likes to force turnovers. Cousins is still turnover prone. There may be six teams on bye this week, but you are still not starting Cousins.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Thompson is back this week, which means the return of the Redskins three-headed monster. Coach Jay Gruden has stated that Alfred Morris remains the starter, but also said Morris and Matt Jones will continue to split carries. We are right back to where we’ve been all season with this fantasy nightmare. Against the Bucs, Morris and Jones were ineffective. The Patriots are beatable on the ground, allowing 4.2 yards per carry, but Morris and Jones simply may not be good enough to exploit the weakness. Thompson still holds PPR Flex value, but nothing more. I would actively avoid all three of them if possible, but if you need to start one, it should be Thompson in a game where the Redskins project to be down early and big.

Projections:
Kirk Cousins: 310 pass yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs
Alfred Morris: 30 rush yds
Matt Jones: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Thompson: 10 rush yds, 50 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 50 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Yawn. Another week, another multi-TD and zero INT game for Tom Brady. So boring. Brady is averaging 3 TDs per week including his “Brady Sneaks.” He now has 20 passing TDs on the year and 0 INTs. I know his stats say he threw a pick against the Colts, but since that was entirely Julian Edelman’s fault, I choose to pretend it never happened. Rob Gronkowski continues to be uncoverable. No single player in any team sport is as dominant at his position than Gronk is at TE. There’s Gronk and then there’s everyone else. Edelman had a monster game last week, catching two of Brady’s four TDs. He remains a surefire WR1. Returning somewhat to form was Brandon LaFell. He looked much better last week, catching 4 of his 7 targets for 47 yards. His role should continue to increase and given the volume of throws in this offense, the TDs are bound to come. LaFell could return WR3 value in the near future, possibly as soon as this week.

The Redskins only allow 232 passing yards per game. That number is going to rise because Tom Brady is still very, very angry. His anger was on full display last week against the Dolphins. Halfway through the 4th quarter, with his team up 29-7 and the game very much over, Brady slammed his fist on the ground in anger after a failed pass play. The very next play he hit Edelman for his 4th and final TD pass. All he wants to do is throw TDs. Nothing has changed since last week. No one can stop Tom Brady.

Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis returned last week after taking the previous week off to get his ailing abdomen right. It clearly paid off as Lewis was as spry and shifty as ever. He looked so good that it is unfathomable to believe no one thought he was worth rostering in 2014. All of his damage was done through the air as he rushed just 5 times for 19 yards, but caught 6-of-9 targets for 93 yards and a TD. The Patriots actually ran the ball a fair amount last week and many of those carries came before the game was out of reach. LeGarrette Blount had 72 yards on 17 carries, but was a nonfactor in the passing game. His value continues to be tied to TDs, which belong almost exclusively to Brady.

The Redskins were torched by Doug Martin before their bye as he rushed for 136 yards on 19 carries. Charles Sims added another 49 yards on 10 carries. The Redskins now rank third to last in rush defense, allowing 128.4 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. The Patriots will be able to move the ball on the ground…if they want to. This game projects to be one where there is a lot of garbage time and Blount is the king of garbage time. He could see upwards of 20 carries even if most of them are in the 4th quarter. Brady will throw early because he wants to, but once this game is well decided, it may become the Blount show.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 280 pass yds, 3 TDs
Dion Lewis: 30 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 80 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 34, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Cowboys - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Hopefully Chip Kelly used the week off to clear his head and fix his offense. Chip can tell the media “I think our quarterback is playing well” all he wants. I can also tell you things like “I think Chuck Pagano is a good coach,” or “I think my Cowboys are fine without Tony Romo.” Sorry Chip, but I don’t believe you. Bradford is averaging 252.3 yards per game and has more turnovers than touchdowns. He is one of just two starting QBs with more interceptions than touchdowns (the other being Peyton Manning). His top receiver, Jordan Matthews, has apparently been dealing with a previously undisclosed hand injury. It appears he is now over that issue and could be poised for his best game of the season against a Cowboys secondary that he took for 80 yards and a score Week 2, albeit most of that came in garbage time. Outside of the first game against the Cowboys, Matthews has been outside the top 40 at WR.

The Cowboys have been very stingy against opposing receivers, but Matthews has the talent to beat them, especially as a receiver who mans the slot and avoids the surprisingly effective Brandon Carr and Morris Claibourne. Bradford threw for just 224 yards in Week 2, most of which came in the aforementioned garbage time (including his TD to Matthews) and turned the ball over three times. It was a performance so poor that it almost makes you believe the Cowboys can win this game…almost. The Cowboys are holding opposing QBs to just 234 yards per game and consistently dominate time of possession, thus limiting what opposing offenses can do. While I am optimistic about JMatt in this one, the wise move is to steer clear of all Eagles passing options, which admittedly may be tough on a week with the highest number of byes we’ve seen all season.

Running Game Thoughts: It was an ugly start for DeMarco Murray, but he has begun to pick it up a bit recently. Murray has averaged a hair under 20 carries over his last three contests and has averaged 4.3 yards per carry, a marked improvement over his first three games. Despite having received 32 more carries than Ryan Mathews, Murray has rushed for 35 fewer yards. Production notwithstanding, Murray is still the starter. Mathews has received single digit carries in every game except the one Murray missed. I would not expect that to change this week. Murray not only had his worst game of season when the Eagles last played the Cowboys, he had the worst game any RB has had all season, rushing for a pathetic 2 (yes, TWO) yards on 13 carries. Ryan Mathews only saw 1 carry and went nowhere.

The Cowboys defense is much improved now compared to Week 2, but it goes without saying that both backs should fare much better this time around. The Cowboys allow 4.1 yards per carry to opposing rushers and an average of one rushing TD per game. The Eagles should be ready to go out of the bye in what really may be an early “do or die” type game for the NFC East. The Eagles cannot come out flat here and it all starts with an effective running game. Adding to the uncertainty is Ryan Mathews’ surprising absence from practice on Thursday due to an apparent groin injury. If he doesn’t play, Murray would dominate the carries by default. Perhaps this is the week we see “Demarco’s Revenge.”

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Ryan Mathews: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Two more weeks. Two more weeks and our eyes can finally be spared the pain of having to watch Matt Cassel throw passes for a professional football team. Cassel’s performance was so uninspiring that Kellen Moore’s name came up as a possible replacement. For what it’s worth, I think he should start. What have the Cowboys got to lose? We know that Cassel and Brandon Weeden aren’t the answer. Moore probably isn’t either, but could he really be worse than the other two? I digress. Cassel will remain under center for at least one more week and is coming off an especially useless performance where he somehow managed to throw for just 97 yards in a complete football game against a defense that isn’t the Broncos, and a game the Cowboys almost won.

The biggest positive from last week’s game is that Dez Bryant returned, played over 80 percent of the snaps, and suffered no setbacks to his foot. He will be good to go once again this week, but obviously cannot be expected to be his dominant elite WR1 self until Tony Romo returns. No one else in this passing game can be trusted, not even Jason Witten, even though if Witten is your starting TE, you likely don’t have a better option. The Cowboys will continue to try and pound teams into submission on the ground and attempt to ask as little of Cassel as possible. Avoid everyone that isn’t Bryant.

Running Game Thoughts: Even in the absence of a competent passing attack, the Cowboys offensive line still makes this running game work. Darren McFadden has taken over from the now unemployed Joseph Randle and looked every bit like a workhorse back. He saw 20 carries last week and also led the team in rushing yards, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Until Romo returns, this offense runs through DMC. As for his backup, the Christine Michael experiment seems to be coming to an end. The Cowboys signed Trey Williams off the Redskins practice squad and it would not shock me if he assumed the old Lance Dunbar role, relegating Michael to a couple touches here and there. I wouldn’t go nuts to grab Williams, but just keep an eye on him in case something happens…or McFadden gets hurt, which is always a possibility.

The Eagles are allowing 4 yards per carry to opposing rushers and rank right in the middle in rush defense. The Eagles know the Cowboys are going to run. The Cowboys know the Eagles know they are going to run, but that isn’t going to alter the game plan. As a result, McFadden possesses a very high floor as the feature back that can get by on volume alone. If he can actually produce well, his ceiling is quite high. Trust McFadden as a strong RB2 who will only improve upon Romo’s return.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 140 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Darren McFadden: 85 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 25 rec yds
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 20, Cowboys 16 ^ Top

Packers at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: It would be a bit of an understatement to say that Aaron Rodgers has had better games than his 77-yard, zero-touchdown performance from a week ago. He hadn’t been setting the world on fire this season even before that, but fantasy owners likely reached a new level of disappointment. Rodgers is outside the top-10 at his position in fantasy scoring, but his potential is such that he remains a weekly starter. The same cannot be said about the rest of the Packers in the passing game, with Randall Cobb having exactly two worthwhile efforts and the virtual certainty that James Jones will cool off. The safe play for fantasy owners is to sit everyone but Rodgers this week against a good Carolina defense.

The Panthers have been one of the better teams in the league against the pass this year, ranking seventh in pass defense, fourth in passing scores allowed, third in interceptions, and eighth in sacks while allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL. Star DB Josh Norman doesn’t typically stay pinned to slot receivers so Randall Cobb’s value may not be diminished a great deal, but the entire passing offense could be in for another rough week. They have surrendered the fifth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks, the sixth-fewest FPts/G to wideouts, and a little better than average when it comes to stopping tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy scored his second touchdown of the season last week, but gained all of 38 yards on the ground and continues to underwhelm. That said, his ankle is supposedly fine now and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get more involved in the coming weeks, and he’s a solid option versus the Panthers on Sunday. Carolina is 20th in the league in both run defense and YPC allowed, while ranking 19th in rushing scores permitted and giving up the 14th-most FPts/G to opposing running backs.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 235 pass yds, 1 TD
Eddie Lacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Randall Cobb: 70 rec yds
James Jones: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 40 rec yds
Richard Rodgers: 55 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton has never been a quarterback fantasy owners want because of his sizzling passing numbers. The former number one overall pick doesn’t have more than two touchdown throws in any game this year and has thrown for less than 200 yards on four occasions. What Newton needs to keep doing is running the ball and throwing it to tight end Greg Olsen, who caught another touchdown last week and is now third among tight ends in fantasy scoring.

Newton’s unique abilities make him a weekly QB1, and Olsen should be a regular in lineups as well, but has a particularly good match-up this week against the Packers. Green Bay is 17th in the NFL in pass defense, but also fourth (tied with Carolina) in passing touchdowns permitted, fourth in sacks, and fifth in interceptions. They have allowed the eighth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the ninth-fewest to wide receivers, despite the bludgeoning they took last week from Demaryius Thomas. The Pack have struggled some against tight ends though, having given up the 10th-most FPts/G in the league to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart is becoming ever more valuable, which is what happens when running backs get a lot of carries. He’s toted the rock 20 or more times in three consecutive games, and put up at least 12 fantasy points in each of them. Stewart ran for 82 yards and a touchdown last week against the Colts, and should be a solid RB2 this week versus Green Bay.

The Packers have been solid against the pass, but less so against the run, as evidenced by the three rushing touchdowns they allowed to Denver last week. Green Bay ranks 25th in the league in run defense, 23rd in rushing scores surrendered, 26th in YPC allowed, and have given up the 13th-most FPts/G to running backs.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Ted Ginn Jr.: 55 rec yds
Philly Brown: 40 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 24, Packers 20 ^ Top

Titans at Saints - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota could return to the field this week after missing time with an MCL sprain. The rookie would be returning under a new coach, with Ken Whisenhunt having been fired this week, though it remains to be seen what that might do for Mariota’s fantasy prowess. It may be tempting for fantasy owners to plug Mariota in their lineups due to the match-up, but that’s a gamble that may not pay off, especially with Tennessee without its top receiver Kendall Wright.

The team does still have tight end Delanie Walker though, and he’s the best bet to do some damage against a horrid New Orleans pass defense. Frankly, the Saints are so bad, that a case can very easily be made that they (with apologies to the Giants) have the worst pass defense in all of football. They rank 29th in yards allowed per game, 22nd in interceptions, 30th in yards per pass attempt given up, and dead last in passing touchdowns ceded. Predictably, they’ve surrendered the most FPts/G in the NFL to quarterbacks, the fifth-most FPts/G to wideouts, and the sixth-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee seems to have settled on Antonio Andrews as their lead back going forward, which will make him a person of interest, so to speak, for fantasy owners. Interim coach Mike Mularkey apparently isn’t hiding the fact that he wants to run the ball more, so Andrews might have some value going forward and isn’t a bad flex option this week against the Saints.

It has been established that New Orleans isn’t good against the pass, but they aren’t a whole lot better against the run, ranking 24th in run defense, 23rd in rushing scores ceded, and 28th in YPC allowed. Those numbers translate into fantasy points given up, and in the Saints’ case, the seventh-most FPts/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Marcus Mariota: 240 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Antonio Andrews: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 55 rec yds
Dorial Green-Beckham: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees was having a blasé season up until last week, when he single-handedly claimed victory for many fantasy owners after posting 511 yards and seven touchdowns against the Giants. It was a remarkable game statistically, as even Marques Colston rose from the ashes of irrelevance to amass 114 yards and a touchdown. Brandin Cooks caught a pair of touchdowns in the game and Ben Watson had nearly 150 yards and a score, and each should be in fantasy lineups, along with Brees, this week against the Titans.

Tennessee didn’t fire Whisenhunt because his pass defense was lousy. It’s the one part of the team that was working, as the Titans rank third in pass defense, seventh in interceptions, and 13th in passing scores allowed. They have permitted the ninth-fewest FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks and have been above average versus wideouts, but have given up the 12th-most FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints and Giants dominated through the air last week, but Mark Ingram still managed to contribute with 80 rushing yards and 39 receiving yards. It doesn’t seem like the former Heisman winner ever puts up huge numbers, but he’s a top-10 fantasy back and has produced enough to be a weekly starter, including this week against Tennessee.

The Titans are 21st in the league against the run, 19th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 22nd in YPC given up. They continue to stop running backs from catching the ball however, and because of that, have allowed the fifth-fewest FPts/G to players at that position.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Brandin Cooks: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Willie Snead: 45 rec yds
Ben Watson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Saints 27, Titans 21 ^ Top

Giants at Buccaneers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning threw for 350 yards and six touchdowns last week, impressive numbers even against the Saints pass defense. He continues to be a frustrating player for fantasy owners to have on their roster, as he’ll do things like throw for 440 yards and three scores one week to 189 yards, one score and two picks the next week. Two weeks ago, Manning had just 170 yards and no touchdowns against the Cowboys, but followed that up with the huge game against New Orleans. It’s hard to tell what Manning will do on a weekly basis, but he does have a very good match-up this week, and he should be in fantasy lineups along with Odell Beckham Jr., who scored three times against the Saints and should light up Tampa this week.

The Bucs beat the Falcons last week despite giving up huge numbers through the air. That wasn’t entirely unusual though, because despite the fact that Tampa is 14th in pass defense, they are also among the worst in the league in interceptions and yards per pass attempt allowed, and only the Saints have given up more passing scores. As far as fantasy points surrendered, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, the third-most FPts/G to wide receivers, and the 13th-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Running game? What running game? The Giants employ a host of runners, each of whom have become or already were irrelevant to fantasy owners. Rashad Jennings is the lead back but does little on a weekly basis, and is not a fantasy option this week against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay is 16th in the 32-team NFL in run defense while ranking 15th in rushing scores ceded and seventh in YPC allowed. With average numbers like those, you would expect the Bucs to be average in terms of fantasy points given up, and they are, ranking 18th in FPts/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Rashad Jennings: 55 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 110 rec yds, 2 TDs
Rueben Randle: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Will Tye: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Many people have confidence that Jameis Winston’s time will come as a fantasy starter, but that time isn’t now. He’s clearly improved, but the numbers still aren’t there yet, though then again neither are the offensive playmakers. Mike Evans has been a disappointment all year, starting with his injury and then the lack of production upon his return. Fantasy owners should put that discontent to the side for this week at least, and plug him into their lineups against the Giants.

New York is now last in the league in pass defense after Drew Brees annihilated them, and they’re also tied with Tampa for 30th in touchdown throws given up, 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and last in sacks, though they are also tied for the NFL lead in interceptions. That doesn’t matter much, because they still give up fantasy points aplenty, including the third-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, the 10th-most FPts/G to wide receivers, and the second-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin’s resurgence is real, and even though he did little last week, with only 71 yards on 23 carries, he has reclaimed a place in fantasy lineups for the foreseeable future. Martin is third among running backs in fantasy scoring, and in the top-10 in FPts/G. He has a solid match-up this week and should be considered a RB1 against New York.

The Giants have had a bit more success stopping the run than the pass, ranking 19th in the league in run defense, 15th (tied with Tampa, among others) in rushing scores permitted, and 17th in YPC allowed. They have had trouble stopping running backs from picking up yards as receivers though, which has translated into plenty of fantasy points allowed and the 11th-most FPts/G given up to backs.

Projections:
Jameis Winston: 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Doug Martin: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Mike Evans: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Adam Humphries: 55 rec yds
Brandon Myers: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Giants 27, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top

Broncos at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been a pretty stunning drop for Peyton Manning in many ways, including his fantasy value. He’s thrown four more interceptions than touchdowns, and is not even in QB2 territory when it comes to fantasy scoring. There’s no doubt that Manning will have a game or two in which he’ll put up numbers like he did in the past, but it’s impossible to know when that might come. His fantasy usefulness has come to an end, but wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders contribute plenty, though it would be nice to see Thomas with more than just one touchdown. Thankfully for his fantasy owners, Thomas has every chance to double or triple his scoring total this week against Indianapolis.

The Colts are 27th in the NFL in both pass defense and sacks, and rank 20th in passing touchdowns surrendered, though they’re also seventh in interceptions. Nonetheless, they’ve allowed plenty of fantasy points, having given up the eighth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, and the ninth-most FPts/G to both wideouts and tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson are the Broncos running back duo, the type of committee approach that fantasy owners loathe. However, it should be worth noting that Hillman has received more carries in the last two games, has run for over 100 yards twice in his last four contests, and scored twice a week ago. It would be hard to pass on him as option this week against the Colts.

Indianapolis has had issues stopping the run this season, as the numbers prove. They are 28th in the league in run defense, 29th in rushing scores permitted, 18th in yards per carry allowed, and just five teams have given up more FPts/G to running backs.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Ronnie Hillman: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
C.J. Anderson: 60 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: At some point, Andrew Luck will stop throwing interceptions, right? It seems like everyone has been waiting for Luck to cease being a turnover machine, but he tossed three more picks last week and now leads the league in that category. He has plenty of options to throw to, but the best of the bunch, T.Y. Hilton (foot), may very well be out this week. That would hinder Luck’s chances to have a decent game, and considering what the Broncos did to Aaron Rodgers a week ago, fantasy owners may want to heed caution using any Colts player involved in the passing game.

No team in the league has been as good against the pass as Denver, and the numbers bear that out. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, lead the league in sacks, have given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and rank fifth in interceptions. The Broncos have allowed the fewest FPts/G in the NFL to quarterbacks, the second-fewest FPts/G to wideouts, and the 11th-fewest FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore ran for 70 yards last week, but it took him 22 carries to get there, which is only 3.2 YPC. He did add 22 yards as a receiver, and has been a decent flex option for fantasy owners most weeks. Gore should continue to be a decent but unspectacular option against Denver.

The Broncos haven’t been as good against the run as they have the pass, but still have solid numbers. They are fourth in the league against the run, fourth in yards per attempt allowed, 15th in rushing scores permitted, and almost exactly in the middle of the NFL in FPts/G surrendered to running backs.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Frank Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 60 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 21, Colts 17 ^ Top