Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown had another stellar game in
Week 8 throwing 3 touchdowns against a tough Arizona defense.
He has been a pleasant surprise for a Cleveland team lacking many
positive storylines. The journeyman has thrown for 271 yards per
game and has an 11:4 touchdown to interception ratio on the season.
He has however also shown a penchant for getting nicked up due
to his reckless style, missing time with a concussion, a shoulder
injury and now missing this week’s game due to a rib injury
suffered against Arizona. That means the troubled Johnny Manziel
will once again see the field for the Browns. While at this point
in a lost season one could argue that the Browns would be better
off seeing what they have in the young signal caller, it would
be unfair to bench McCown based on what he’s done for the
team. Also, perhaps a second half surge could build confidence
for the 2016 season and the team could eke one more year out of
a 37 year-old McCown. The other pleasant surprise for this offense
has been 30 year-old tight end Gary Barnidge who has 40 receptions
for 567 yards with 6 touchdowns, after accumulating only 44 receptions
with 3 touchdown catches during the first six years of his career.
Barnidge 6’6” and 250 pounds has been a redzone monster
for McCown and looks the part on the field. The rest of the pass
catchers are made up of undersized and mediocre options. Speaking
of mediocre options, Brian Hartline managed to be on the receiving
end of two of McCown’s touchdown passes last week, but fantasy
owners will be spared from chasing those points as Hartline (concussion)
has been ruled out as well. With Manziel starting the Battle of
Ohio, a downgrade to the Browns’ entire passing game should
be expected.
The Bengals defense managed to spoil the return of Big Ben Roethlisberger
last week and is allowing 258.4 passing yards per game while giving
up 9 passing touchdowns and grabbing 8 interceptions on the season.
This aggressive unit has already recorded 20 sacks in seven games
and will be further bolstered by the return of linebacker Vontaze
Burfict who made his season debut last week in Pittsburgh. The
Bengals are arguably the most complete team in the league and
will get a chance to show it off to a national audience.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland running game has been nothing
short of ugly this year. Isaiah Crowell, Robert Turbin and rookie
Duke Johnson have formed a three-man committee which has been
woefully ineffective. Head Coach Mike Petine has expressed a desire
to get the rookie Johnson more involved, as he has shown to be
the most explosive back, but his effectiveness is based on his
abilities in the passing game and he’s only averaging 3.2
yards per carry on the ground. He does have 33 receptions for
331 yards and a touchdown as a receiver and with the Browns looking
more effective passing the ball than running it, it’s logical
to forsee him getting more touches as the season progresses. Robert
Turbin has been the least effective runner but the team has insisted
on using him in the rotation since he’s returned from his
high ankle sprain. As stated in previous weeks, the Browns plan
coming into the season was to be a ball control offense but their
defense has not played as well as expected and the team has instead
turned into an aerial show. Because of this, Crowell has not been
able to get into any kind of a rhythm that a power-back like him
would need to be effective, making Johnson the only dependable
option for fantasy owners.
It seems unlikely that the Browns can turn their running game
around this week as the Bengals are strong against the run. They
have limited the opposition to 110.1 yards per game with only
3 rushing touchdowns allowed. It could get ugly this week however
if the Browns get too one dimensional allowing the Bengals to
pin their ears back and go after the inexperienced Manziel. Manziel
played recklessly when forced into action previously and if he
is under constant siege on Thursday Night, this game could get
away from Cleveland early.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is coming off of his worst statistical
game of the season, but still managed to outplay Ben Roethlisberger
in crunch time keeping his team undefeated. Dalton threw for 231
yards with a touchdown and two interceptions last Sunday, but
he once again lead his team to a 4th quarter come from behind
victory. Dalton has been spreading the ball around instead of
force feeding A.J. Green like he had in the past, but this week
he went back to his old friend in crunch time. Green finished
with 11 catches for 118 yards and caught Dalton’s sole touchdown
pass to put the Bengals ahead. This week the team hits the national
spotlight against a porous Cleveland secondary that will be missing
Joe Haden and Donte Whitner. Oh, baby for those of you owning
a piece of this passing game.
The Browns are the 24th ranked pass defense and are allowing 258.4
yards per game and have given up 15 TDs through the air with only
5 interceptions. Star cornerback Joe Haden has been banged up
most of the season and will miss this week’s game exposing
the lack of depth in the secondary. The Browns’ are in desperation
mode and playing their cross-state rivals but it’s unlikely
to make much of a difference here.
Running Game Thoughts: “The arrow is pointing up”
on Jeremy Hill or so says offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. Hill
has struggled during most of his starts this season but is coming
off back-to-back 15-carry games and is starting to inch his yards
per carry stats back up to respectable levels. Hill has looked
far more tentative and sluggish than he did last season. Perhaps
the leg injury he suffered early in the season has slowed him
down or maybe it’s his attempt to emulate Le’Veon
Bell’s patience that has caused him to struggle, but either
way his owners are hoping he’s on the right path now. Giovani
Bernard has looked better in most games but he took a backseat
last week in Pittsburgh with a surprisingly low three touch day.
This is a pure RBBC, but both backs could be viable starters given
the proper matchups and this week is about as proper as they come.
Expect both Hill and Bernard to see a decent amount of carries
and excel against the horrific Browns’ run defense. The
Browns are allowing 147 yards per game, at 4.8 yards per carry
on the ground and have yielded 8 rushing touchdowns. If The Bengals
come out and punch them in the mouth early, the Browns may just
lie down on the mat and not fight back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr put up 333 yards and 4 touchdowns
on the (usually) tough Jets defense. Carr was aided by the Jets
inability to cover and tackle last Sunday, but his performance
also featured some outstanding throws most notably on his two
scoring strikes to wide receiver Andre Holmes. On a day where
rookie stud receiver Amari Cooper was held mostly in check, Carr
was able to utilize Holmes, Michael Crabtree and his running backs
to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. Carr who was the fourth
quarterback taken in the 2014 draft is looking like the best of
the bunch in year two, with 1,793 passing yards and 15 touchdown
passes against only 3 interceptions while leading the Raiders
to a 4-3 record. Carr relied strictly on the short and quick passing
game last season but has increased his yards per attempt up to
7.8 in his sophomore season. While Todd Gurley is the leading
candidate to win offensive rookie of the year honors, Cooper isn’t
going to let him have it unchallenged. Cooper has 38 receptions
for 565 yards with 3 scores and has shown to be a pristine route
runner with sure hands and better speed than expected. With Crabtree
having a career renaissance across from the rookie, Carr should
continue to produce like a fantasy QB1 most weeks.
The young Steelers’ secondary is growing into a solid unit
and shouldn’t be an easy mark in Heinz Field this week.
They are allowing 265.9 yards per game and have yielded 12 scores
through the air in eight games. The Steelers have been able to
manufacture a pass rush and have also grabbed 7 interceptions
without yet fielding a truly dominant player in their defensive
unit. Carr’s quick release should help negate some of the
pass rush, but the Steelers should come out angry and ready to
play at home after losing last week’s home game against
a division rival where they had a fourth quarter lead.
Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray was handed the starting
job this offseason and has not disappointed. He ran for 113 yards
against the league’s top run defense last week and is averaging
76.3 yards per game on the ground while also contributing in the
passing game. Murray is a tall upright runner who takes his share
of big hits, so health is always a concern, but his power and
speed combination should keep him among the league rushing leaders
if he does stay healthy. Former converted corner back, who was
shifted back to running back, Taiwan Jones put on a show last
week juking his way to a big play touchdown after taking a short
pass from Carr. Roy Helu was expected to back up Murray after
he was signed in the offseason, but it’s been Jones manning
the No. 2 role and distancing himself from Helu with each passing
week.
The Steelers run defense has been stout thus far, which could
force the Raiders to abandon the run, especially if the Steelers
jump on their jetlagged opponent quickly. The Steelers are allowing
only 97.0 rushing yards per game, and only two rushing touchdowns
on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger did not jump-start the
Pittsburgh passing attack as much as one would have thought after
returning from his MCL sprain last week. While he was facing a
tough Bengals defense, Ben’s performance was well below
par as he completed 28-of-45 passes for 262 yards and a touchdown.
He also threw three interceptions which were a big part of the
loss. Ben was perhaps a little rusty after a four-week layoff
and showed some signs of the knee affecting his mobility, but
those issues should start to fade, perhaps as soon as this week.
Antonio Brown owners had to be pleased to see Ben back, as he
was targeted 11 times, with six completions for 47 yards and a
touchdown. Brown was targeted deep on two of Ben’s interceptions
so he could have had a much bigger day. Tight end Heath Miller
was also pleased to see his quarterback back on the field, as
the forgotten man was back in the saddle as Roethlisberger’s
security blanket catching 10 balls for 108 yards. This was and
will be one of the best passing offenses in the league, so last
week’s down performance should be ignored moving forward.
The Raiders weak secondary coming into Heinz Field should help
get things moving back in the right direction.
Oakland has allowed at least 250 yards passing yards in every
game this season. On average they are allowing 302.1 yards per
game through the air and have given up 13 passing touchdowns in
7 games. Remarkably at 39 years of age, Charles Woodson is having
a season for the ages, but the rest of the secondary is inexperienced
and struggling. The lack of a consistent pass rush from the front
seven has not helped the overmatched secondary either.
Running Game Thoughts: Not only did the Steelers lose the game
last week but they suffered an even more devastating loss when
star running back Le’Veon Bell went down for the season
with a torn MCL. Veteran DeAngelo Williams, who played very well
in Bell’s absence during a two game suspension will once
again take over as the feature back. Williams should see a heavy
workload. During those first two weeks he was on the field for
84 and 93 percent of the snaps, respectively, and was second in
the NFL with 41 carries. Even at 31 years of age, Williams gained
204 yards and scored 3 touchdowns during those first two games
and will obviously be a fantasy asset going forward. Jordan Todman
and the newly signed Isaiah Pead will be fighting for the scraps
behind Williams. For now they should likely be left on the waiver
wire in all but the deepest of leagues.
It will not come easy for Williams and Pittsburgh this week however
as the Raiders have been extremely strong against the run. They
have limited the opposition to 82.9 yards per game this season
with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Nick Foles has been the ultimate caretaker
quarterback for a Rams team built on its running game and strong
defense. Foles has not surpassed 200 passing yards since Week
1. His receivers have not been reliable, and his best overall
wideout, Brian Quick, has not been healthy all season after bilateral
shoulder surgeries during the offseason. However at times, like
last week, Foles’ passing numbers have been bailed out by
former first round pick Tavon Austin’s run after the catch
ability. Last week Austin took a short screen pass 66 yards for
a score. The 5’8” speedster has become the de facto
No. 1 WR for the team. He’s leading the team in targets
and is being used in the running game as well. Austin has 6 total
touchdowns on the season. Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey and tight
end Jared Cook have had their moments but this offense is barely
able to support one fantasy wide receiver so other than Austin
the rest can be ignored.
The Vikings’ pass defense has managed to be a to be an above
average unit allowing 229.3 yards per game and only 9 touchdown
passes allowed in seven games. The unit shouldn’t see much
of a challenge this week since the Rams aren’t looking to
be a dynamic passing attack. The Vikings haven’t been able
to force many turnovers which is something that could come back
to haunt them once they start facing better competition.
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley has been everything the Rams
hoped for when they used the 10th overall pick in the draft on
him in May. After sitting out the first two games and only seeing
six carries in Week 3, he has simply been unstoppable the last
four games. He’s the first rookie running back ever to rush
for more than 125 yards in four consecutive games and despite
only having really played in four games, he’s second in
the league in runs over 20 yards and first in runs of 40 or more
yards. He has 575 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 115 yards
per game even when counting his 9 yards gained in Week 3. Gurley
is a monster at 6’1’ and 227 pounds with elite level
speed. It will be interesting to see Gurley battle it out with
the gold standard at running back for the last decade, Adrian
Peterson, this Sunday.
The Vikings will present a stiff challenge as they are allowing
104.7 rushing yards per game on the season with only 4 scores
on the ground. The Vikings should be fully aware that the Rams
will be looking to run the ball down their throats and will need
to be up to that challenge in what should be a classic slugfest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater followed up his best game
of the season in Week 7 with yet another subpar effort in Week
8. The Vikings are sitting at 5-2, but that’s not at all
attributable to their passing game, as things just have not clicked
so far. Through seven games Bridgewater has just 6 touchdown passes
with 5 interceptions and is only averaging 218 passing yards per
game. If it wasn’t for the breakout of rookie Stefon Diggs
the Vikings would have no passing game at all. Bridgewater’s
only touchdown pass last week was a result of a short pass to
the rookie where he made a beautiful run beating several defenders
to score from 40 yards out. On the season, Diggs now has 25 catches
for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns, all coming during the last four
games. Otherwise, outside of an occasional touchdown grab by tight
end Kyle Rudolph there’s nothing here to excite fantasy
owners. With Bridgewater and Foles “slinging” the
ball this Sunday, it could look like a game out of the 1970s.
The Vikings will face one of their stiffest challenges this week
as they face the Rams’ top 5 defense. The Rams are allowing
230 passing yards per game and have only given up a league lowest
5 touchdown passes. The Vikings will likely look to establish
Adrian Peterson and rely on their defense per usual, but if they
need to open things they could be in trouble.
Running Game Thoughts: This week the old man Adrian Peterson will
be looking to hold onto his title of “best running back
in football” for just a little longer, as the old guard
meets the new guard. Peterson should be fired up to show that
he’s still the man, with Gurley receiving all the accolades
in recent weeks. Peterson is not showing any signs of age and
is still showing big play ability averaging 4.5 yards per carry
with 633 rushing yards and 3 scores on the season. The Vikings
have smartly built their offensive game plan around AP, so volume
should never be an issue especially in what looks to be a close
defensive battle this week.
The Rams have also been one of the league’s top run defenses
allowing 98.1 yards per game and only 3 scores on the ground.
The Rams front seven is as tough as they come and will likely
be game planning to stop Peterson as most teams do. It should
be a classic strength on strength matchup in Minnesota.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was only the second time he’s cracked
the 300-yard mark this season, but Matt Ryan made it count this
past week when he nearly hit 400 yards through the air in a win
over the Buccaneers. Ryan’s 397 yards were the most he’s
accumulated since Week 1. This was a welcome return to fantasy
relevance for Ryan who had struggled in recent weeks, compiling
an average of just 12 fantasy points per game over his previous
four starts. Along with Ryan’s big day came a huge day from
wide receiver Julio Jones who currently sits as the top-scoring
wide receiver in both standard scoring and PPR formats and might
very well be the top receiver for the remainder of the season.
Jones caught 12 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against the
Bucs and now that he’s fully healthy, more of those big
games should be in line. Another player who stepped up in a big
way this past week was tight end Jacob Tamme who set season highs
in both receptions (10) and yards (103) while scoring his first
touchdown of the season. Tamme had only made more than four receptions
once this season so trusting him as a TE1 going forward is a bit
risky, but the Falcons have been looking for someone to excel
at the tight end position ever since Tony Gonzalez retired and
Tamme does have the potential to play a pivotal role in this offense
down the stretch.
Here in Week 9, this passing game will have another opportunity
for a big game as they go up against a San Francisco 49ers defense
that has been depleted by injuries and retirements and has struggled
across the board. While this unit has done fairly well against
the pass over the past two weeks, those performances came against
Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, who have both struggled this season
from a fantasy standpoint. Ryan and the Falcons are a much tougher
matchup and a unit that can certainly exploit this defense that
has already given up five games of 15 or more fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks this season. Jones is practically a lock
to be targeted 10 or more times this week, so get him in your
lineups and expect another elite performance. Tamme could be considered
for a bye week filler role given his recent uptick in targets
with Leonard Hankerson possibly missing another game with his
hamstring injury. Roddy White is the only other player to consider
for fantasy purposes within this offense, but he is far past his
prime and shouldn’t be considered as anything other than
a desperation play in deep leagues at this point.
Running Game Thoughts: Some of us liked Devonta Freeman more
than Tevin Coleman coming into the year, but no one could have
possibly seen this coming. Halfway through the regular season,
Freeman is now the fourth-highest scoring overall player in fantasy
football (standard scoring) and the only non-QB in the top-10.
In PPR formats, he is the highest scoring overall player. This
has happened due to a heavy workload from the Falcons which has
seen him touch the ball 192 times already this season. While this
workload might have to be reduced a bit down the stretch to preserve
his health for a potential playoff run, Freeman is touching the
ball as much or more than any other back in the league and that
gives him an incredibly high floor on a weekly basis, almost regardless
of matchup. Freeman has scored 11 or more fantasy points in standard
scoring formats in every game since Week 1. While he hasn’t
scored a touchdown in either of his past two games, Freeman has
still been getting it done from a fantasy standpoint, rushing
for 204 yards while adding eight receptions for 57 yards.
Things couldn’t be setup much better for another monster
game from Freeman as we head into Week 9. The 49ers have been
horrendous against opposing running backs this season as they’ve
conceded the third-highest fantasy points per game to the position
on the year. The 49ers have conceded an average of 20.8 fantasy
points (standard scoring) per game to running backs and they’ve
only held an opposing team’s running backs to fewer than
18 points in two of their eight contests. Even better for Freeman
is that the 49ers have been very giving to backs that catch the
ball as they’re tied for the third-most receptions given
up to the position on the year. While Tevin Coleman will almost
certainly touch the ball a handful of times, the vast majority
of the touches should go to Freeman who could very well end up
as the top-scoring back in fantasy again this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It appears as though the Colin Kaepernick
experiment may finally be over. After another disastrous performance
in Week 8 wherein he threw for just 162 yards and no scores, Kaepernick
has been benched by the team in favor of former top-10 NFL Draft
pick Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert had a terrible run during his first
three years in the league as a member of the Jaguars as he completed
just 53 percent of his passes with a negative touchdown-to-interception
ratio of 23 touchdowns to 24 interceptions. Gabbert found his
new home in San Francisco in 2014 but he has not seen any meaningful
playing time in over two full seasons. Those looking for optimism
here can point to Gabbert’s pre-season performance this
year when he completed over 82 percent of his passes. Still, those
numbers came primarily against backup or even third and fourth-string
defenders, so expecting him to come anywhere near that in his
first start is a bit unrealistic. To make matters worse, Gabbert
may be without top receiver Anquan Boldin who missed Week 8 with
a hamstring injury and has not yet been able to practice leading
up to Week 9. Boldin is a tough player who can fight through a
lot, but with the 49ers in full-on rebuild mode, there may not
be a rush to get him back on the field. Instead, look for Jerome
Simpson to be the team’s top target in Week 9, especially
now that tight end Vernon Davis has been traded to the Broncos.
Simpson led the team with 10 targets in Week 8 in his first game
back from suspension. Torrey Smith has been a disappointment this
season and has not caught more than three passes in a game since
Week 2, but he does have still possess some explosiveness and
is capable of going deep for a score at any time.
Week 9 doesn’t give the 49ers passing game much hope, either,
as they unit will be up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that
has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks so far this season. The Falcons have only given up
nine passing touchdowns in eight games while also forcing eight
interceptions. Only two teams – the Texans and the Giants
– have thrown for more than one touchdown against this defense.
This San Francisco offense now might be the worst in all of football,
so try to avoid any of these players if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: The injury armageddon of Week 8 took a
lot of high-end casualties, so it’s not surprising that
San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde has been forgotten about
by many fantasy analysts, but Hyde is still dealing with a foot
injury that held him out in Week 8 and he hasn’t yet practiced
leading up to Week 9. While the team won’t officially rule
him out, Hyde is unlikely to play and with Reggie Bush being placed
on season-ending IR after tearing his MCL on a slippery concrete
surface in St. Louis this past week, the 49ers running back position
– much like their quarterback position – is in complete
disarray. Kendall Gaskins stepped in and got some playing time
in Week 8 after Bush’s injury, but the team also made a
move earlier this week when they signed free agent veteran Pierre
Thomas. Thomas, who spent the first eight years of his career
in New Orleans, is primarily a complementary pass-catching back,
but may be asked to take on the lead role at least until Hyde
returns. Thomas will be joining the team with limited knowledge
of the playbook which does lead to some potential offensive constraints,
but with a new quarterback also starting, there’s a good
chance that the 49ers’ playbook in Week 9 will be very limited
anyway.
While we don’t know exactly who will serve as the 49ers’
top tailback this week, we do know that the Falcons run defense
has been their weak point so far this season. The unit has given
up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running
backs thus far and they’ve given up double-digit fantasy
days to the position in all but one game. The 49ers did also add
Shaun Draughn, who was cut earlier this season by the Browns,
so there are definitely some question marks at the running back
position heading into Week 9, but if you had to take a chance
on one of these players, Thomas is likely the player who has the
most upside, especially in PPR formats, given his history of being
an excellent third down back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There may be hope after all for Chicago
Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. After missing Weeks 2 through
5 with an injury, the team’s top receiver returned in a
huge fashion in Week 6, catching eight passes for 147 yards and
a touchdown. It’s performances like this that made him a
second-round pick in many leagues. After the team’s Week
7 bye, Jeffery did it again in Week 8 when he caught 10 passes
for 116 yards and another touchdown. He has now been targeted
at least 11 times in each of his three starts this season and
is performing at an elite level. Tight end Martellus Bennett has
had an up-and-down season, which is not uncommon of the tight
end position, but he’s only the No. 13-scoring tight end
in the league at the moment in standard scoring formats. Bennett
is an elite talent who is certainly startable in all formats,
but his points have come in chunks throughout the majority of
his career, making him one of the biggest boom-or-bust options
at the position. Jeffery and Bennett have been the only reliable
targets so far this season for quarterback Jay Cutler, who has
finished with 14 or more fantasy points in five of his six starts
so far this season. Cutler is not a great QB1 but he does have
upside as a QB2 in two-quarterback leagues as he has shown a tendency
to blow up with big games from time to time.
With the running game in flux, Cutler and the Bears passing game
will have to step up in a big way in Week 9 against a San Diego
pass defense that has been good at times, but struggled at times
as well. They’ve given up multiple passing touchdowns in
five of their eight games this season which does bode well for
Cutler and the Bears. Better yet, they’ve also only forced
four interceptions, which should give Cutler some confidence as
he is known to throw his fair share of picks. Another player to
consider in deep formats this week is Marquess Wilson, who could
get some additional playing time if Eddie Royal, who left Week
8’s game with a knee injury and hasn’t practiced this
week as of Thursday, is unable to play.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the primary casualties of the Week
8 injury onslaught was Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte.
Forte went down with a knee injury which the team has been very
quiet about, but it is believed to be an MCL injury and it is
almost guaranteed that he will miss this week’s game and
at least a couple more to come. With Forte out, the Bears are
expected to turn to rookie running back Jeremy Langford. Ka’Deem
Carey could get some playing time in obvious passing downs, but
the Bears seem to be very comfortable having Langford on the field
for the majority of their snaps. When Forte went down in Week
8, Langford took over and rushed the ball 12 times for 46 yards
in the Bears’ overtime loss to the Vikings.
Langford becomes an interesting Flex option here in Week 9 as
he will be running the ball against one of the worst run defenses
in the league. No team has allowed more fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs than the Chargers this season. This
defense has conceded at least 12 points (standard scoring) to
the position in every game and they’ve given up 19 or more
points in all but two of their games. As long as the Bears defense
can keep the Chargers’ offense in check, Langford should
have a good opportunity at fantasy production this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Following another monster game from Philip
Rivers, the San Diego QB is now the second-highest scoring quarterback
in fantasy football this season. Rivers cracked the 300-yard mark
for the fifth straight game and he has now thrown for multiple
touchdown passes in all but one game so far this season. With
the Chargers struggling to get their running game working, Rivers
has been forced to throw the ball more than any other quarterback
in the league. The primary beneficiary of all of that passing
has been wide receiver Keenan Allen whose 67 receptions are second-most
in the league. Unfortunately, Allen was one of the many players
whose season ended this past week when he suffered what is being
described as a lacerated kidney. With Allen out, the Chargers
will have to look elsewhere. The player expected to get the biggest
increase in work is Stevie Johnson who has primarily played out
of the slot for the Chargers this season and could take over as
the team’s top possession receiver. Malcom Floyd might also
see an uptick in targets but he remains primarily a deep threat
so it seems unlikely that he will be getting many of the targets
that would’ve gone Allen’s way. Tight ends Antonio
Gates and Ladarius Green (sprained ankle) may also get additional
looks, but with Gates dealing with a knee injury, it could be
difficult to predict which player – if either – is
going to get enough targets to be a TE1.
Even without Allen, this matchup against the Bears looks like
another potential 300-plus yard, multiple touchdown game for Rivers
and the San Diego passing game. The Bears have been absolutely
lit up in multiple games this season, including conceding four
passing touchdown games to both the Cardinals and Lions as well
as a three-touchdown game to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. With
Rivers and the Chargers passing more than any other team in the
league, there’s a real chance that San Diego passes the
ball 50 or more times in Week 9. Despite being without Allen,
that many pass attempts almost certainly will lead to a QB1 performance
for Rivers and a nice day for multiple San Diego pass catchers.
Running Game Thoughts: San Diego is passing the ball a ton, but
that doesn’t mean they necessarily want the offense to be
that way. They’ve done their best to give the ball to their
first round NFL Draft pick, Melvin Gordon, but things just haven’t
worked out. Gordon is averaging a measly 3.7 yards per carry and
he is, shockingly, yet to score a touchdown despite touching the
ball 121 times on the year. With Gordon struggling, the Chargers
have had to rely heavily on their pass-catching back, Danny Woodhead,
who has been an unbelievable source of fantasy production, especially
in PPR formats. Woodhead is currently the No. 3 scoring running
back in PPR, but he’s still been good in standard scoring
leagues where he ranks ninth at the position. Woodhead’s
40 receptions are second-most in the league, but he’s also
been able to supplement that by scoring four touchdowns on the
year. Unfortunately, Woodhead’s production has been a bit
unpredictable, as he has produced single-digit fantasy numbers
in two games, including this past week against the Ravens. Woodhead
rushed the ball three times for just nine yards and despite Rivers
throwing the ball 37 times, Woodhead made just two receptions
on the day. That seems to be an outlier, though, as Woodhead has
been able to make at least four receptions in all but two games
this season.
The Chicago defense has struggled over the past few seasons,
but their run defense has been far better than their pass defense.
Ranked 16th in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running
backs, the Bears have had a “bend but don’t break”
philosophy, having conceded just four touchdowns to the positions
in their seven games. They’ve given up their fair share
of yardage on the ground, however, as every opponent they’ve
faced has rushed for at least 70 yards against them. Certainly
the Chargers will again roll out a pass-heavy offensive gameplan
again in Week 9, but there’s hope that the duo of Gordon
and Woodhead might be able to contribute something on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill spent one week dressed as
Tom Brady and then promptly went right back to being Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill threw for 300 yards last week, most of it in garbage
time with 2 INTs and no TDs. It was Tannehill’s first game
of the season without a TD pass, but alarmingly, his fourth game
of the season with multiple interceptions. Lost in the shuffle
of the Dolphins lackluster effort is Jarvis Landry, who continues
to produce effectively week to week. Landry is much better in
PPR formats and even better in leagues that award return yards,
but is a WR2 in any format. His floor is Antonio Brown-lite. Rishard
Matthews’ usage was very encouraging as he saw a game high
12 targets and continues to be a reliable WR3. He is not going
to blow the roof off with scoring, but he has a high weekly floor
as well.
The Bills have given up 15 scores through the air and allow 255.4
passing yards per game. They have also forced 8 interceptions.
Both Dolphins receivers should be safe starts and Tannehill will
likely find the end zone at least once. He is also just as likely
to turn it over a couple times. Expect a very up and down performance,
but one that is more of a problem in real life than in fantasy.
Running Game Thoughts: After two fantastic games, Lamar Miller
came crashing back down to reality, totaling a frighteningly low
15 yards on 9 carries against New England. He salvaged his fantasy
day by falling into the end zone, but make no mistake, this was
an ugly day at the office for Miller. Part of the blame can be
attributed to what appeared to be complete and utter fear from
the Dolphins. It seemed as though they felt like they had to keep
up with the Patriots scoring from the beginning. Expecting the
Patriots to throw early and often, the Dolphins opened up doing
the same, abandoning their previously effective ball control strategy.
Their beliefs became a self-fulfilling prophecy as they moved
away from Miller too early and ultimately allowed the Patriots
to build up the big lead they were afraid of, forcing Tannehill
to throw more than he should. Even against a Bills defense that
has been strong against the run this season, allowing 91.9 yards
per game, look for the Dolphins to once again recommit to Miller.
He should see upwards of 15 carries in what should be a much more
competitive game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Early reports have been nothing but positive
concerning Tyrod Taylor’s status. He practiced in full as
early as Monday as looks ready to go after an MCL injury cost
him the last couple games. The Bills certainly need him back as
EJ Manuel is not good at football. Before getting hurt, Taylor
was completing 70 percent of his passes and putting up QB1 numbers
despite attempting fewer throws per game than all relevant QBs.
It appears as though there is a legitimate chance Sammy Watkins
is able to play this week. Rex Ryan is “hopeful” that
Watkins is ready. While that isn’t totally encouraging,
beat reporters seem to believe Watkins is going to be active,
which would be great news for the Bills. Merely having him out
there improves their offense.
The Dolphins are a decidedly average pass defense with a shutdown
corner in Brent Grimes. Charles Clay should be in line for a large
amount of targets. Even with his poor receiving options, Taylor
has produced well, due in part to his running ability. The last
time these teams played, however, it wasn’t his running
ability that propelled him to QB1 numbers. He ran the ball just
3 times for 12 yards, but threw for 277 yards and 3 TDs with no
INTs back in Week 3. The Dolphins are unlikely to let that happen
again, but that doesn’t mean Taylor isn’t a rock solid
start this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The week off did wonders for the Bills
as it not only gave LeSean McCoy a week to rest his balky hamstring,
but gave Karlos Williams a week to rest his brain. McCoy is now
the healthiest he has been all season and Williams looks to be
fully over his concussion. The two were quite the formidable one-two
punch early in the year. Their return to full health should mercifully
spell the end of Boobie Dixon and Boom Herron, who showed absolutely
nothing in their brief time in the spotlight.
The Dolphins have struggled to defend the run and already were
blasted by Williams for 110 yards on 12 carries in Week 3. Rex
Ryan loves to run and the Bills aren’t going to change their
offensive strategy after it worked so well before. With Shady
back to full strength, he and Williams may combine for over 30
carries and both could return starter value, with Shady being
the preferred option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars were granted a much needed week
off following their game overseas. This week, they return to action
for a road date with the Jets and although they sit at 2-5, their
season is far from over given how deplorable the AFC South is.
Blake Bortles has certainly taken a step forward this year, but
it is not as big as most realize. The only real difference between
2015 Bortles and 2014 Bortles is the increase in TD passes, which
can be attributed more to the rise of Allen Robinson and the overall
improvement of the offense. Bortles has already eclipsed his previous
season TD total of 11 (15 this year) and obviously a season where
a QB is on pace to throw for 30-plus scores is a welcome one for
fantasy owners. The rest of his numbers aren’t much different.
Bortles is completing just 55.7% of his passes, good for last
in the league among current starting QBs (only Ryan Mallett is
worse among qualified starters). He has also thrown 8 interceptions,
on pace for 17, which is exactly the number of picks he threw
last season. As long as the TDs are there, Bortles will remain
a QB1, but I caution those getting excited about any sort of “leap”
from Bortles. On the other hand, those getting excited about Robinson
have every reason to do so. His recent stats are a little inflated
as he’s scored 4 TDs over his last three games, but even
without the scores, Robinson’s numbers indicate this is
no fluke. He has alternated between 12 and 9 targets each game
since Week 2 and had no fewer than 68 yards. He has been a WR1.
Not bad for a guy drafted to be a WR3.
The bad news is Robinson leaves one island (England) for another
island (Revis). Revis just held Amari Cooper to 46 yards on 5
catches in a game where the Jets gave up 333 yards and 4 TDs to
Derek Carr. While those numbers are certainly not encouraging
for the Jets defense as a whole, they speak volumes to the ability
of Revis to contain Cooper. The Jets defense had its worst game
of the season last week and to make matters worse, Antonio Cromartie
had to leave the game late with an injury. On second thought,
maybe that wasn’t the worst thing considering how poor Cromartie
has played this season. Notwithstanding the previous two games,
I expect a better outing against the Jaguars. Revis is going to
cause Robinson a ton of trouble, but that should open things up
for Allen Hurns, much like Cooper’s blanketing opened things
up for Crabtree last week.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon was questionable with a groin
injury for the Jaguars Week 7 contest against the Bills. There
was nothing questionable about his performance as it was easily
the best of his young career. Yeldon rushed for 115 yards on 20
carries and scored his first rushing TD. Now with a week off to
rest his groin, he should be back to 100% for Week 9. Fantasy
owners were probably scratching their heads when Yeldon sliced
and diced his way through the Bills defense only to see Toby Gerhart
check in for the goal line carries. To the surprise of no one
who has seen Gerhart play, he got stuffed on all 4 of his attempts.
The Jaguars actually were able to run a fifth goal line play due
to penalty. That carry went to Tyson Alualu because Gus Bradley
is apparently trying to lose his job. That’s going to change
this week. If the Jaguars get to the goal line, expect Yeldon
to remain in the game. He has earned that right.
The problem lies in actually getting to that point. The Jets
run defense is tops in the league, allowing just 78.1 yards per
game and 3.6 yards per carry. They have allowed just two rushing
TDs and three rushes of 20 yards or more. That’s including
Latavius Murray’s season best performance against the Jets,
racking up 113 yards on 20 carries. They should bounce back so
while the volume will undoubtedly be there for Yeldon, consider
him nothing more than a low end RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As someone who enjoys watching football
and the subtle nuances of the game, I cannot remember wanting
to bang my head against a wall more often than when watching Geno
Smith masquerade as a professional quarterback. It was painful
to watch him roll out of the pocket, look downfield, see no one
open, and then instead of throw it away, just tuck the ball and
run out of bounds or take a sack. He did this multiple times.
In a season where I’ve had the misfortune of sitting through
games quarterbacked by Michael Vick, Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden,
Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, and Colin Kaepernick, I can confidently
state that none of them looked as lost and confused as Geno Smith
(although Blaine Gabbert might give him a run for his money this
week). Smith was so bad filling in for Ryan Fitzpatrick that the
Jets did not even wait until the end of the game to start making
calls about free agent QBs. Fitzpatrick is going to need surgery
to repair the torn ligaments in his left thumb, but Todd Bowles
has gone on record stating Fitz is going to play through the injury.
Smith also left the game late after taking a huge hit. He apparently
has left shoulder and abdomen issues, but says he’ll be
fine for this week’s game. He practiced in full on Thursday
so if Fitzpatrick is forced out of this week’s contest,
Smith will be coming in.
Fitzpatrick being able to play is a boon for Brandon Marshall
and Eric Decker for as long as he can stay on the field. Speaking
of Marshall, he also left the game with a toe injury, but was
able to return until he left the game with an ankle injury, which
he was also able to return from. Marshall is tough as nails and
has a history of playing through injuries. He will be a game time
decision and will likely play, but even if he suits up, you cannot
expect him to be his usual dominant self. As for Decker, he had
another game where he caught a TD, but he was also nowhere to
be seen on the Jets final drive. He played through a questionable
tag and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. He is expected
to play, but another game time decision is coming. The Jaguars
have been beatable through the air and have allowed 12 passing
TDs this season, but with all of the injuries to the Jets offense,
it is going to be tough to trust anyone. If Marshall and Decker
play, you start them, but expectations must be lowered given that
they are both clearly nowhere near 100%.
Running Game Thoughts: Fitzpatrick’s injury sapped the
life out of the entire offense last week. After looking like a
man possessed for much of the season, Chris Ivory could muster
no more than 17 yards on 15 carries in a truly wretched performance.
Last week’s effort should do nothing to prevent the Jets
from feeding Ivory this week. The Jaguars previously stout run
defense has seen their rushing yards against average balloon to
over 100 yards. They still allow just 3.5 yards per carry, but
that shouldn’t be a problem for Ivory given the expected
volume. The Jets do not have a choice, especially considering
Ivory is the healthiest relevant player in the offense. He may
see 25 carries. Ivory is still averaging 4.5 yards per carry and
is third in the league with 19.2 rushes per game. With the three
key cogs in the passing game banged up, Ivory is the man to pick
up the slack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins was able to take a hard earned
week off after playing arguably the best game of his career in
Week 7. His play was nothing short of brilliant against the Bucs,
throwing for 317 yards on 33-of-40 passing with 3 TDs and no interceptions.
He orchestrated a comeback from down 24-0 in the 2nd quarter,
culminating in a postgame outburst of joy nothing short of legendary
(we’ll be seeing that one for years). It was a masterful
performance made even better considering the complete absence
of a run game. This one game notwithstanding, Cousins still has
just one more TD than INT on the season and is averaging just
6.5 yards per completion. Helping his cause this week could be
the return of DeSean Jackson. DJax sits on zero fantasy points
on the year as he pulled his hamstring on his first target of
the season and has been sidelined ever since. An initial 2-4 week
timeline ballooned into eight weeks, but on Monday, Jackson declared
himself ready to go. It is important to note that Jackson remained
limited in practice as of Thursday so although he says he’s
playing, make sure his coaches feel the same way Sunday morning.
Assuming he’s not lying to us, Jackson’s return gives
Cousins a much needed deep threat, something he’s been lacking
during Jackson’s absence. His return likely spells the end
of the Jamison Crowder experience. Crowder will still see the
field, but is firmly behind Jackson, Reed, and Garcon in the pecking
order. Speaking of Jordan Reed, the week off certainly helped
him heal up his oft injured self. His next injury is always just
around the corner, but for now, he’s locked and loaded as
an elite TE1. The Redskins passing attack faces off against a
Patriots pass defense that reminded everyone, especially Ryan
Tannehill, how much of a fluke Tannehill’s Week 7 explosion
really was. They were absolutely menacing last Thursday, not allowing
Tannehill to get anything going. Tannehill is certainly a flawed
quarterback, but nowhere near as flawed as Cousins. The Patriots
defense likes to force turnovers. Cousins is still turnover prone.
There may be six teams on bye this week, but you are still not
starting Cousins.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Thompson is back this week, which
means the return of the Redskins three-headed monster. Coach Jay
Gruden has stated that Alfred Morris remains the starter, but
also said Morris and Matt Jones will continue to split carries.
We are right back to where we’ve been all season with this
fantasy nightmare. Against the Bucs, Morris and Jones were ineffective.
The Patriots are beatable on the ground, allowing 4.2 yards per
carry, but Morris and Jones simply may not be good enough to exploit
the weakness. Thompson still holds PPR Flex value, but nothing
more. I would actively avoid all three of them if possible, but
if you need to start one, it should be Thompson in a game where
the Redskins project to be down early and big.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Yawn. Another week, another multi-TD and
zero INT game for Tom Brady. So boring. Brady is averaging 3 TDs
per week including his “Brady Sneaks.” He now has
20 passing TDs on the year and 0 INTs. I know his stats say he
threw a pick against the Colts, but since that was entirely Julian
Edelman’s fault, I choose to pretend it never happened.
Rob Gronkowski continues to be uncoverable. No single player in
any team sport is as dominant at his position than Gronk is at
TE. There’s Gronk and then there’s everyone else.
Edelman had a monster game last week, catching two of Brady’s
four TDs. He remains a surefire WR1. Returning somewhat to form
was Brandon LaFell. He looked much better last week, catching
4 of his 7 targets for 47 yards. His role should continue to increase
and given the volume of throws in this offense, the TDs are bound
to come. LaFell could return WR3 value in the near future, possibly
as soon as this week.
The Redskins only allow 232 passing yards per game. That number
is going to rise because Tom Brady is still very, very angry.
His anger was on full display last week against the Dolphins.
Halfway through the 4th quarter, with his team up 29-7 and the
game very much over, Brady slammed his fist on the ground in anger
after a failed pass play. The very next play he hit Edelman for
his 4th and final TD pass. All he wants to do is throw TDs. Nothing
has changed since last week. No one can stop Tom Brady.
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis returned last week after taking
the previous week off to get his ailing abdomen right. It clearly
paid off as Lewis was as spry and shifty as ever. He looked so
good that it is unfathomable to believe no one thought he was
worth rostering in 2014. All of his damage was done through the
air as he rushed just 5 times for 19 yards, but caught 6-of-9
targets for 93 yards and a TD. The Patriots actually ran the ball
a fair amount last week and many of those carries came before
the game was out of reach. LeGarrette Blount had 72 yards on 17
carries, but was a nonfactor in the passing game. His value continues
to be tied to TDs, which belong almost exclusively to Brady.
The Redskins were torched by Doug Martin before their bye as
he rushed for 136 yards on 19 carries. Charles Sims added another
49 yards on 10 carries. The Redskins now rank third to last in
rush defense, allowing 128.4 yards per game and 4.9 yards per
carry. The Patriots will be able to move the ball on the ground…if
they want to. This game projects to be one where there is a lot
of garbage time and Blount is the king of garbage time. He could
see upwards of 20 carries even if most of them are in the 4th
quarter. Brady will throw early because he wants to, but once
this game is well decided, it may become the Blount show.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Hopefully Chip Kelly used the week off to
clear his head and fix his offense. Chip can tell the media “I
think our quarterback is playing well” all he wants. I can
also tell you things like “I think Chuck Pagano is a good
coach,” or “I think my Cowboys are fine without Tony
Romo.” Sorry Chip, but I don’t believe you. Bradford
is averaging 252.3 yards per game and has more turnovers than
touchdowns. He is one of just two starting QBs with more interceptions
than touchdowns (the other being Peyton Manning). His top receiver,
Jordan Matthews, has apparently been dealing with a previously
undisclosed hand injury. It appears he is now over that issue
and could be poised for his best game of the season against a
Cowboys secondary that he took for 80 yards and a score Week 2,
albeit most of that came in garbage time. Outside of the first
game against the Cowboys, Matthews has been outside the top 40
at WR.
The Cowboys have been very stingy against opposing receivers,
but Matthews has the talent to beat them, especially as a receiver
who mans the slot and avoids the surprisingly effective Brandon
Carr and Morris Claibourne. Bradford threw for just 224 yards
in Week 2, most of which came in the aforementioned garbage time
(including his TD to Matthews) and turned the ball over three
times. It was a performance so poor that it almost makes you believe
the Cowboys can win this game…almost. The Cowboys are holding
opposing QBs to just 234 yards per game and consistently dominate
time of possession, thus limiting what opposing offenses can do.
While I am optimistic about JMatt in this one, the wise move is
to steer clear of all Eagles passing options, which admittedly
may be tough on a week with the highest number of byes we’ve
seen all season.
Running Game Thoughts: It was an ugly start for DeMarco Murray,
but he has begun to pick it up a bit recently. Murray has averaged
a hair under 20 carries over his last three contests and has averaged
4.3 yards per carry, a marked improvement over his first three
games. Despite having received 32 more carries than Ryan Mathews,
Murray has rushed for 35 fewer yards. Production notwithstanding,
Murray is still the starter. Mathews has received single digit
carries in every game except the one Murray missed. I would not
expect that to change this week. Murray not only had his worst
game of season when the Eagles last played the Cowboys, he had
the worst game any RB has had all season, rushing for a pathetic
2 (yes, TWO) yards on 13 carries. Ryan Mathews only saw 1 carry
and went nowhere.
The Cowboys defense is much improved now compared to Week 2,
but it goes without saying that both backs should fare much better
this time around. The Cowboys allow 4.1 yards per carry to opposing
rushers and an average of one rushing TD per game. The Eagles
should be ready to go out of the bye in what really may be an
early “do or die” type game for the NFC East. The
Eagles cannot come out flat here and it all starts with an effective
running game. Adding to the uncertainty is Ryan Mathews’
surprising absence from practice on Thursday due to an apparent
groin injury. If he doesn’t play, Murray would dominate
the carries by default. Perhaps this is the week we see “Demarco’s
Revenge.”
Passing
Game Thoughts: Two more weeks. Two more weeks and our eyes
can finally be spared the pain of having to watch Matt Cassel
throw passes for a professional football team. Cassel’s
performance was so uninspiring that Kellen Moore’s name
came up as a possible replacement. For what it’s worth,
I think he should start. What have the Cowboys got to lose? We
know that Cassel and Brandon Weeden aren’t the answer. Moore
probably isn’t either, but could he really be worse than
the other two? I digress. Cassel will remain under center for
at least one more week and is coming off an especially useless
performance where he somehow managed to throw for just 97 yards
in a complete football game against a defense that isn’t
the Broncos, and a game the Cowboys almost won.
The biggest positive from last week’s game is that Dez
Bryant returned, played over 80 percent of the snaps, and suffered
no setbacks to his foot. He will be good to go once again this
week, but obviously cannot be expected to be his dominant elite
WR1 self until Tony Romo returns. No one else in this passing
game can be trusted, not even Jason Witten, even though if Witten
is your starting TE, you likely don’t have a better option.
The Cowboys will continue to try and pound teams into submission
on the ground and attempt to ask as little of Cassel as possible.
Avoid everyone that isn’t Bryant.
Running Game Thoughts: Even in the absence of a competent passing
attack, the Cowboys offensive line still makes this running game
work. Darren McFadden has taken over from the now unemployed Joseph
Randle and looked every bit like a workhorse back. He saw 20 carries
last week and also led the team in rushing yards, targets, receptions,
and receiving yards. Until Romo returns, this offense runs through
DMC. As for his backup, the Christine Michael experiment seems
to be coming to an end. The Cowboys signed Trey Williams off the
Redskins practice squad and it would not shock me if he assumed
the old Lance Dunbar role, relegating Michael to a couple touches
here and there. I wouldn’t go nuts to grab Williams, but
just keep an eye on him in case something happens…or McFadden
gets hurt, which is always a possibility.
The Eagles are allowing 4 yards per carry to opposing rushers
and rank right in the middle in rush defense. The Eagles know
the Cowboys are going to run. The Cowboys know the Eagles know
they are going to run, but that isn’t going to alter the
game plan. As a result, McFadden possesses a very high floor as
the feature back that can get by on volume alone. If he can actually
produce well, his ceiling is quite high. Trust McFadden as a strong
RB2 who will only improve upon Romo’s return.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It would be a bit of an understatement to
say that Aaron Rodgers has had better games than his 77-yard,
zero-touchdown performance from a week ago. He hadn’t been
setting the world on fire this season even before that, but fantasy
owners likely reached a new level of disappointment. Rodgers is
outside the top-10 at his position in fantasy scoring, but his
potential is such that he remains a weekly starter. The same cannot
be said about the rest of the Packers in the passing game, with
Randall Cobb having exactly two worthwhile efforts and the virtual
certainty that James Jones will cool off. The safe play for fantasy
owners is to sit everyone but Rodgers this week against a good
Carolina defense.
The Panthers have been one of the better teams in the league against
the pass this year, ranking seventh in pass defense, fourth in
passing scores allowed, third in interceptions, and eighth in
sacks while allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt in the
NFL. Star DB Josh Norman doesn’t typically stay pinned to
slot receivers so Randall Cobb’s value may not be diminished
a great deal, but the entire passing offense could be in for another
rough week. They have surrendered the fifth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks,
the sixth-fewest FPts/G to wideouts, and a little better than
average when it comes to stopping tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
scored his second touchdown of the season last week, but gained
all of 38 yards on the ground and continues to underwhelm. That
said, his ankle is supposedly fine now and it wouldn’t be
surprising to see him get more involved in the coming weeks, and
he’s a solid option versus the Panthers on Sunday. Carolina
is 20th in the league in both run defense and YPC allowed, while
ranking 19th in rushing scores permitted and giving up the 14th-most
FPts/G to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton has never been a quarterback
fantasy owners want because of his sizzling passing numbers. The
former number one overall pick doesn’t have more than two
touchdown throws in any game this year and has thrown for less
than 200 yards on four occasions. What Newton needs to keep doing
is running the ball and throwing it to tight end Greg Olsen, who
caught another touchdown last week and is now third among tight
ends in fantasy scoring.
Newton’s unique abilities make him a weekly QB1, and Olsen
should be a regular in lineups as well, but has a particularly
good match-up this week against the Packers. Green Bay is 17th
in the NFL in pass defense, but also fourth (tied with Carolina)
in passing touchdowns permitted, fourth in sacks, and fifth in
interceptions. They have allowed the eighth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks
and the ninth-fewest to wide receivers, despite the bludgeoning
they took last week from Demaryius Thomas. The Pack have struggled
some against tight ends though, having given up the 10th-most
FPts/G in the league to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart is becoming ever more valuable, which is what happens
when running backs get a lot of carries. He’s toted the
rock 20 or more times in three consecutive games, and put up at
least 12 fantasy points in each of them. Stewart ran for 82 yards
and a touchdown last week against the Colts, and should be a solid
RB2 this week versus Green Bay.
The Packers have been solid against the pass, but less so against
the run, as evidenced by the three rushing touchdowns they allowed
to Denver last week. Green Bay ranks 25th in the league in run
defense, 23rd in rushing scores surrendered, 26th in YPC allowed,
and have given up the 13th-most FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota could return to the field
this week after missing time with an MCL sprain. The rookie would
be returning under a new coach, with Ken Whisenhunt having been
fired this week, though it remains to be seen what that might
do for Mariota’s fantasy prowess. It may be tempting for
fantasy owners to plug Mariota in their lineups due to the match-up,
but that’s a gamble that may not pay off, especially with
Tennessee without its top receiver Kendall Wright.
The team does still have tight end Delanie Walker though, and
he’s the best bet to do some damage against a horrid New
Orleans pass defense. Frankly, the Saints are so bad, that a case
can very easily be made that they (with apologies to the Giants)
have the worst pass defense in all of football. They rank 29th
in yards allowed per game, 22nd in interceptions, 30th in yards
per pass attempt given up, and dead last in passing touchdowns
ceded. Predictably, they’ve surrendered the most FPts/G
in the NFL to quarterbacks, the fifth-most FPts/G to wideouts,
and the sixth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee
seems to have settled on Antonio Andrews as their lead back going
forward, which will make him a person of interest, so to speak,
for fantasy owners. Interim coach Mike Mularkey apparently isn’t
hiding the fact that he wants to run the ball more, so Andrews
might have some value going forward and isn’t a bad flex
option this week against the Saints.
It has been established that New Orleans isn’t good against
the pass, but they aren’t a whole lot better against the
run, ranking 24th in run defense, 23rd in rushing scores ceded,
and 28th in YPC allowed. Those numbers translate into fantasy
points given up, and in the Saints’ case, the seventh-most
FPts/G allowed to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees was having a blasé season
up until last week, when he single-handedly claimed victory for
many fantasy owners after posting 511 yards and seven touchdowns
against the Giants. It was a remarkable game statistically, as
even Marques Colston rose from the ashes of irrelevance to amass
114 yards and a touchdown. Brandin Cooks caught a pair of touchdowns
in the game and Ben Watson had nearly 150 yards and a score, and
each should be in fantasy lineups, along with Brees, this week
against the Titans.
Tennessee didn’t fire Whisenhunt because his pass defense
was lousy. It’s the one part of the team that was working,
as the Titans rank third in pass defense, seventh in interceptions,
and 13th in passing scores allowed. They have permitted the ninth-fewest
FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks and have been above average
versus wideouts, but have given up the 12th-most FPts/G to tight
ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints
and Giants dominated through the air last week, but Mark Ingram
still managed to contribute with 80 rushing yards and 39 receiving
yards. It doesn’t seem like the former Heisman winner ever
puts up huge numbers, but he’s a top-10 fantasy back and
has produced enough to be a weekly starter, including this week
against Tennessee.
The Titans are 21st in the league against the run, 19th in rushing
touchdowns allowed, and 22nd in YPC given up. They continue to
stop running backs from catching the ball however, and because
of that, have allowed the fifth-fewest FPts/G to players at that
position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning threw for 350 yards and six
touchdowns last week, impressive numbers even against the Saints
pass defense. He continues to be a frustrating player for fantasy
owners to have on their roster, as he’ll do things like
throw for 440 yards and three scores one week to 189 yards, one
score and two picks the next week. Two weeks ago, Manning had
just 170 yards and no touchdowns against the Cowboys, but followed
that up with the huge game against New Orleans. It’s hard
to tell what Manning will do on a weekly basis, but he does have
a very good match-up this week, and he should be in fantasy lineups
along with Odell Beckham Jr., who scored three times against the
Saints and should light up Tampa this week.
The Bucs beat the Falcons last week despite giving up huge numbers
through the air. That wasn’t entirely unusual though, because
despite the fact that Tampa is 14th in pass defense, they are
also among the worst in the league in interceptions and yards
per pass attempt allowed, and only the Saints have given up more
passing scores. As far as fantasy points surrendered, the Bucs
have allowed the fourth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, the third-most
FPts/G to wide receivers, and the 13th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Running game?
What running game? The Giants employ a host of runners, each of
whom have become or already were irrelevant to fantasy owners.
Rashad Jennings is the lead back but does little on a weekly basis,
and is not a fantasy option this week against the Bucs.
Tampa Bay is 16th in the 32-team NFL in run defense while ranking
15th in rushing scores ceded and seventh in YPC allowed. With
average numbers like those, you would expect the Bucs to be average
in terms of fantasy points given up, and they are, ranking 18th
in FPts/G allowed to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Many people have confidence that Jameis
Winston’s time will come as a fantasy starter, but that
time isn’t now. He’s clearly improved, but the numbers
still aren’t there yet, though then again neither are the
offensive playmakers. Mike Evans has been a disappointment all
year, starting with his injury and then the lack of production
upon his return. Fantasy owners should put that discontent to
the side for this week at least, and plug him into their lineups
against the Giants.
New York is now last in the league in pass defense after Drew
Brees annihilated them, and they’re also tied with Tampa
for 30th in touchdown throws given up, 25th in yards per pass
attempt allowed, and last in sacks, though they are also tied
for the NFL lead in interceptions. That doesn’t matter much,
because they still give up fantasy points aplenty, including the
third-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, the 10th-most FPts/G to wide
receivers, and the second-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin’s
resurgence is real, and even though he did little last week, with
only 71 yards on 23 carries, he has reclaimed a place in fantasy
lineups for the foreseeable future. Martin is third among running
backs in fantasy scoring, and in the top-10 in FPts/G. He has
a solid match-up this week and should be considered a RB1 against
New York.
The Giants have had a bit more success stopping the run than the
pass, ranking 19th in the league in run defense, 15th (tied with
Tampa, among others) in rushing scores permitted, and 17th in
YPC allowed. They have had trouble stopping running backs from
picking up yards as receivers though, which has translated into
plenty of fantasy points allowed and the 11th-most FPts/G given
up to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It has been a pretty stunning drop for Peyton
Manning in many ways, including his fantasy value. He’s
thrown four more interceptions than touchdowns, and is not even
in QB2 territory when it comes to fantasy scoring. There’s
no doubt that Manning will have a game or two in which he’ll
put up numbers like he did in the past, but it’s impossible
to know when that might come. His fantasy usefulness has come
to an end, but wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
contribute plenty, though it would be nice to see Thomas with
more than just one touchdown. Thankfully for his fantasy owners,
Thomas has every chance to double or triple his scoring total
this week against Indianapolis.
The Colts are 27th in the NFL in both pass defense and sacks,
and rank 20th in passing touchdowns surrendered, though they’re
also seventh in interceptions. Nonetheless, they’ve allowed
plenty of fantasy points, having given up the eighth-most FPts/G
to quarterbacks, and the ninth-most FPts/G to both wideouts and
tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Hillman
and C.J. Anderson are the Broncos running back duo, the type of
committee approach that fantasy owners loathe. However, it should
be worth noting that Hillman has received more carries in the
last two games, has run for over 100 yards twice in his last four
contests, and scored twice a week ago. It would be hard to pass
on him as option this week against the Colts.
Indianapolis has had issues stopping the run this season, as the
numbers prove. They are 28th in the league in run defense, 29th
in rushing scores permitted, 18th in yards per carry allowed,
and just five teams have given up more FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: At some point, Andrew Luck will stop throwing
interceptions, right? It seems like everyone has been waiting
for Luck to cease being a turnover machine, but he tossed three
more picks last week and now leads the league in that category.
He has plenty of options to throw to, but the best of the bunch,
T.Y. Hilton (foot), may very well be out this week. That would
hinder Luck’s chances to have a decent game, and considering
what the Broncos did to Aaron Rodgers a week ago, fantasy owners
may want to heed caution using any Colts player involved in the
passing game.
No team in the league has been as good against the pass as Denver,
and the numbers bear that out. They have allowed the fewest passing
yards per game and passing touchdowns, lead the league in sacks,
have given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and rank
fifth in interceptions. The Broncos have allowed the fewest FPts/G
in the NFL to quarterbacks, the second-fewest FPts/G to wideouts,
and the 11th-fewest FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
ran for 70 yards last week, but it took him 22 carries to get
there, which is only 3.2 YPC. He did add 22 yards as a receiver,
and has been a decent flex option for fantasy owners most weeks.
Gore should continue to be a decent but unspectacular option against
Denver.
The Broncos haven’t been as good against the run as they
have the pass, but still have solid numbers. They are fourth in
the league against the run, fourth in yards per attempt allowed,
15th in rushing scores permitted, and almost exactly in the middle
of the NFL in FPts/G surrendered to running backs.