Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dolphins dominated the Texans so thoroughly
last week that Matt Moore threw and completed one pass. That is,
coincidentally, the same number of passes Ryan Tannehill DIDN’T
complete last week. Tannehill posted a perfect passer rating in
his destruction of the Texans, throwing 19 times for 282 yards
and 4 TDs, all of which came in the first half. 90 percent of
Tannehill’s production actually came in the first 16 minutes.
It is important to note that Tannehill wasn’t dropping passes
into receivers’ baskets downfield for scores. All of his
TD passes were the result of a lot of running by his receivers
and a lot of failing by the Texans. This is the second week in
a row that Jarvis Landry has scored on a play where I am baffled
as to how he wasn’t tackled.
This week, Tannehill & Co head north to do battle with the
undefeated Patriots and Tannehill will have to do his best to
keep up with the Brady-led offense. Last week, the Patriots solid,
yet unspectacular pass defense allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw
for 295 yards and 2 TDs while forcing no interceptions. They did
sack Fitzpatrick twice and force him to fumble. The Dolphins under
Dan Campbell have a renewed commitment to the run, but even the
Jets had no choice but to have Fitzpatrick throw it up 39 times.
Last year, Tannehill threw for 524 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs
against New England. He also took a whopping 9 sacks across both
games. While the Dolphins have been much improved the last two
games, Tannehill’s performance hasn’t quite matched
his production. Don’t expect any more 4 TD games.
Running Game Thoughts: I picture Joe Philbin watching these new
Dolphins and throwing things at the TV as Tannehill continues
to feed Lamar Miller. Imagine the fury watching his former team
give the ball to this ineffective, talentless, backup-level running
back when they have a QB perfectly capable of throwing the ball
42 times per game (Tannehill’s average under Philbin). And
that, Joe, is why you no longer have a job. Tannehill has thrown
a total of 48 passes in the two games since Campbell took over.
Before Campbell, Miller carried the ball a total of 37 times in
four games. After Campbell, Miller carried the ball 33 times in
two games. Before Campbell, the Dolphins were the laughingstock
of the division. After Campbell, the Dolphins are 2-0 (now 3-3)
and right back in the thick of the wild card race. Miller touched
the ball 17 times (14 ground, 3 air) for a total of 236 yards
and 2 TDs. Then the third quarter started. To put Miller’s
performance in perspective, consider this – Miller scored
more fantasy points last week than consensus first round pick
C.J. Anderson has scored all season.
The Patriots are allowing 110.3 yards per game on the ground
and 4.5 yards per carry. Last week, they largely shut down Chris
Ivory, but he was dealing with a hamstring issue that developed
early in the game. Barring injury to Miller, expect him to touch
the ball early and often as the Dolphins try their best to keep
Tom Brady off the field.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Patriots took over at their own 32 with
5:32 left in the 4th quarter, nursing a 3-point lead. Bill Belichick
told his superstar QB to go burn the rest of the clock. Brady
said “sure thing coach!” Pass, pass, pass, pass, run,
pass, pass, pass, pass, pass TD Gronk. Yep. That’s how Angry
Tom Brady runs out the clock. The Jets are still one of the best
defenses in the league but Brady lit them up for 355 yards on
34/54 passing for 2 TDs. He added another one on his patented
“Brady Sneak” from the one-yard line. Brady has now
thrown multiple TDs in every game this season and has scored three
total TDs in all but one. Brandon LaFell returned to the lineup
but dropped a ridiculous six passes. Julian Edelman caught just
5 passes for 54 yards in a very pedestrian performance. Danny
Amendola surged back to relevancy, but he will continue to be
inconsistent and the return of LaFell only muddies the water.
The Dan Campbell Dolphins shut down DeAndre Hopkins last week
(credit to Brent Grimes) and have shown well in back to back outings
against Marcus Mariota and Brian Hoyer. Obviously, Tom Brady will
be a different test. I absolutely believe that this Dolphins defense
is much better and will continue to be effective in the future
and may ultimately save the Dolphins season. Unfortunately, none
of that will occur this week. This is usually the part where I
present you with the opposing team’s defensive stats, but
the reality is it simply does not matter. Brady is going to do
what he wants. You are firing up Brady, Gronk, and Edelman as
you always do.
Running Game Thoughts: Typically, when starting running backs
are forced to miss a game, coaches compensate by splitting carries
amongst the backups. Dion Lewis’ abdominal issue kept him
out of last week’s contest. The Patriots divided up the
carries nice and evenly between James White and LeGarrette Blount.
White saw 2 carries. Blount saw 3 carries. Brady led the team
in rushing with 15 yards and also threw the ball 54 times. I can’t
commend the Patriots enough for completely shunning general philosophy
on balanced attacks and how you have to run in order for play
action to be effective. Brady gets to the line and makes it abundantly
clear to the defense that he is throwing. He dares them to stop
him. They can’t.
You cannot trust Blount. If Lewis plays this week, he will be
inserted right back into his previous role as the “this
is what everyone hoped Shane Vereen would be” back. Whether
he plays is something we won’t know until Thursday evening.
In true Belichick fashion, reports have been uninformative regarding
Lewis’ status. He got in limited practices on Tuesday and
Wednesday but was limited last week as well and ultimately did
not suit up. If he’s playing, you start him. If Lewis can’t
go, the Patriots are just going to throw all the time like last
week. In fact, they might just do that anyway, but at least if
Lewis is out there, he’ll be on the receiving end of a few
passes. If not, it’ll be James White who could serve as
a desperation flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The NFL season is seven weeks old and Russell
Wilson has thrown a TD in every game. One. TD. Way back in Week
2, Wilson threw a second TD. That’s the only time he did
so. He also has zero rushing TDs. This is what happens when you
draft a QB on a run first offense that wins games with defense.
Wilson is averaging the same number of fantasy points per game
that Matt Hasselbeck averaged over his two spot starts for Andrew
Luck. Wilson was a consensus top 12 QB heading into the season,
but it’s hard to knock him for failing to live up to his
draft stock. Out of the top 12 preseason QBs, just Brady, Rodgers,
Luck, and Newton remain. Wilson has attempted just 204 passes
on the season. To put that in perspective, that number is over
100 fewer than Philip Rivers. Could a trip to Jerry World be the
spark that ignites Wilson’s season?
The Cowboys shut down Eli Manning last week for the second time
this season and continue to perform admirably against opposing
QBs. They have yet to allow a 300-yard passer if you discount
the 80 free yards Brees got in overtime Week 4. Obviously no one
is expecting Wilson to crack 300 yards. Last season, when the
Seahawks hosted the Cowboys, Wilson completed half his passes
for just 126 yards and 1 interception. In a 2012 home game against
the Cowboys, Wilson completed 75% of his passes for just 151 yards
and 1 TD. It’s a very small sample size and Wilson is a
much better QB now than he was then, but so far, he has not been
effective against the Cowboys. The difference this year is that
Wilson has Jimmy Graham to throw to. When the Cowboys played the
Patriots, they limited Gronk to 67 yards on 4 catches. That game
was also over before it started. Graham’s usage has been
inconsistent and impossible to predict. His best game of the season
came against the best defense he’s seen (Carolina). Look
for the Seahawks to control this one on the ground, limiting the
opportunities of the passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch officially returned last
week, piling up 122 yards on 27 carries with a score. Thomas Rawls
performed quite well while filing in for Lynch, but with the starter
back, Rawls is merely there to give Beast Mode a breather. Fred
Jackson will still handle the passing downs, but make no mistake,
this backfield belongs to Marshawn Lynch. He is now fully over
his calf and hamstring injuries and prepared for another full
workload this week in Dallas. Lynch has averaged over 5 yards
per carry against Dallas during his time in Seattle. Expect Mr.
Mode to see upwards of 20 carries against a Cowboys defense allowing
4.2 yards per carry and roughly 1 rushing TD per game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Cassel wasted no time assuring the
Bills that they made the correct decision in choosing EJ Manuel.
He was actually playing quite well for the majority of this game
until Terrance Williams ran a poor curl route leading to an easy
pick-six for Domnique Rodgers-Cromartie. So began Cassel’s
downward spiral. He threw another brutal interception on a play
where Williams beat the corner, but Cassel waited way too long
to throw the ball. He made sure to toss a third one for good measure.
Despite turning the ball over three times, allowing a kick return
TD and muffing a punt, the Cowboys lost this game by just one
score. That would be encouraging if next week’s contest
wasn’t against the Legion of Boom. The Seahawks just went
into the Bay Area and rendered Colin Kaepernick irrelevant (alright,
fair point, Kaepernick was irrelevant way before the Legion got
there). Kaepernick didn’t turn the ball over but he also
didn’t throw TDs.
If the Cowboys can control this game on the ground and let Cassel
do nothing, that would be great but that’s unlikely to be
the case. Cassel showed some flashes last week. His TD pass to
Devin Street was one of the nicest plays you’ll see all
season. Much of the credit goes to Street, however, for having
the presence to stop on the sidelines and tap both his feet while
maintaining control. It was his only reception of the afternoon.
Jason Witten and Terrance Williams combined for 15 targets and
each turned in respectable performances. They should once again
be Cassel’s most looked at receivers, unless Dez Bryant
returns, which is apparently far more likely than I initially
anticipated. Bryant returned to practice this week for the first
time since he broke his foot. Bryant told that media that he “had
a great day of practice” Thursday and beat reporters believe
he is more likely to make his return than not. I stand by what
I’ve been saying for weeks – that he will return Week
9, but it wouldn’t shock me if he suited up a week earlier
than I expected. If Bryant plays, I think you have to start him
even in a touch matchup against the Seahawks. Given the Cowboys
general candor regarding injuries and how forthcoming they’ve
been throughout the season, expect some clarity on Bryant by Friday
or Saturday, thus giving you ample time to make the proper lineup
adjustments.
Running Game Thoughts: Christine Michael spent the Cowboys bye
week running with the first team. As a result, I predicted he
would see the biggest workload of his career. I was correct. He
saw 5 carries for 18 yards. I’m done. Joseph Randle started
and was likely on his way to a heavy workload until he re-aggravated
a preseason oblique injury, ending his day. This opened the door
for Darren McFadden. McFadden showed up, time machine and all,
ready to channel his inner 2010 for a vintage (can I call it that
if he only had one good season?) performance. He saw 29 carries
and totaled 152 yards. Who would’ve thought that in the
year 2015, there would be a week where Darren McFadden and Chris
Johnson were among the top 7 rushers?
The Seahawks allow just 3.7 yards per carry and have allowed
just one rush of over 20 yards on the season. They have allowed
six rushing scores. Regardless, the Cowboys are going to pound
McFadden as Randle is not going to play this week. In fact, it
is looking increasingly unlikely that Randle will play again this
season, or perhaps ever, at least for the Cowboys. Randle left
the Cowboys facility Wednesday and there are conflicting reports
regarding whether he was channeling his inner Ryan Mallett over
losing the starting job or if something more serious was going
on. Apparently, Randle may face discipline for violating the NFL’s
personal conduct policy, likely stemming from an incident that
occurred in February. If you need to drop a player in a bind,
Randle might be the guy. It took Jerry Jones all of two days to
announce that McFadden would start this week and presumably for
the rest of the season. Jason Garrett knows he can’t let
Matt Cassel throw and the Cowboys have to endure three more weeks
without Tony Romo, which means three more weeks of a lot of Darren
McFadden…at least until he gets hurt again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a rollercoaster-like start
to the season for the Detroit Lions and specifically for quarterback
Matt Stafford. Stafford’s first two games against the Chargers
and Vikings were decent, but then things fell apart as the former
top overall NFL Draft pick dropped three straight single-digit
fantasy performances on his owners. Things may be turning around
for Stafford, however. He followed up a 400-plus yard, four-touchdown
performance against the Bears in Week 6 with another nice fantasy
day against the Vikings. Along with the Stafford resurgence has
a return to WR1 status for Calvin Johnson. Johnson has scored
in back-to-back games and seems to be back to the form that made
him a first round fantasy selection the past few seasons. While
Johnson has been performing well, the same cannot be said about
Detroit’s second wide receiver, Golden Tate. Although Tate
got into the end zone in Week 6, he has scored double digit fantasy
points once this season in standard scoring formats and he has
been held to five or fewer points in five of his seven games.
With Tate struggling, Detroit turned to a different target to
complement Johnson in Week 7 as Eric Ebron, who had missed the
previous two games due to injury, returned in a big way. Ebron
caught five passes for 89 yards and a touchdown, his third score
of the season.
This Detroit passing game, led by Stafford, will have an opportunity
to put together a third straight high-quality fantasy day as they
go up against a Kansas City defense that has struggled defending
through the air so far this season. Although they’re coming
off of back-to-back games of holding opposing quarterbacks to
fewer than 10 fantasy points (standard scoring), it’s worth
considering that those games were against the Landry Jones-led
Steelers and the Vikings who have not exactly been a great passing
team so far this season. While we can’t completely discount
that the Chiefs’ secondary has been playing well, their
first five games of the season tell a very different story. In
those five games, the Chiefs allowed an average of 21.2 fantasy
points per game to opposing quarterbacks and even after solid
performances over their past two games, they’ve still given
up nearly two full points more per game to opposing wide receivers
than any other team in the NFL. With the Chiefs secondary being
so poor against wide receivers, it’s no surprise that Johnson
finds himself ranked near the top of most rankings lists for Week
8. Tate could even be considered a Flex option this week given
the matchup. If there is a positive for the Chiefs side, however,
it could be that the team has done very well against opposing
tight ends. Only once have they given up more than 35 yards to
the position and they’ve only conceded two touchdowns to
opposing tight ends on the year. Ebron will still likely be in
many lineups this week given his ability to get into the end zone,
but try to temper your expectations and don’t overpay for
him in daily formats.
Running Game Thoughts: There was a lot of hype surrounding Detroit
Lions rookie running back Ameer Abdullah coming into the 2015
season, but the talented young runner has not come close to reaching
the expectations that most fantasy owners. Abdullah started the
season off strong with a nice 15-point (standard scoring) day
in Week 1, but has not since been back into double-digits. Worse
yet, he’s now in a full on committee with third down back
Theo Riddick and the returning Joique Bell. While Bell is still
nursing the ankle injury that cost him three games, the belief
is that once he is healthy again, he could regain his role as
the team’s primary early down back if Abdullah doesn’t
show much more. The most valuable back in this offense has been
Riddick, but his skill set is much more valuable in PPR formats
than in standard formats. With his 36 receptions, Riddick’s
PPR point total on the year nearly doubles that of what he has
scored in standard leagues, where he is essentially a fantasy
non-factor.
In Week 8, this unit will head to London to face a Kansas City
defense that has been excellent against the run so far this season.
Aside from a one game snafu where they allowed four touchdowns
to the duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, the Chiefs haven’t
allowed a single rushing touchdown in any other game. That includes
matchups against Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and most
recently Le’Veon Bell. With the Detroit running game in
shambles, this is not the time to be trusting Abdullah or Bell.
The only player in this running game who has much of a ceiling
this week is Riddick, who should be considered a solid PPR flex
option as he has been throughout the majority of the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There are few quarterbacks who carry more
fantasy consistency than the Chiefs’ Alex Smith. Unfortunately
for fantasy owners, that consistency does not exactly equal elite
numbers. Smith is currently the No. 11-scoring fantasy quarterback
this season which is a bit skewed because the Chiefs have not
yet had their bye week, but he has been scored between 13 to 18
points in each of his past five games. During that stretch, Smith
has not thrown for more than one touchdown in a game, but he has
thrown only one interception. He’s the prototypical “safe”
QB2 in two quarterback leagues, but that’s just not that
exciting for standard leagues, which is why his ownership percentage
still hovers below 50 percent across the industry. What has been
good about Smith so far this season, however, is that he has really
been keying in on his top targets. Tight end Travis Kelce, who
currently ranks fifth at the position in points on the season
in standard scoring formats, has caught at least three passes
in every game so far this season while catching five or more balls
in all but two contests. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown
since his two-TD day back in Week 1, Smith’s propensity
to throw the ball to his tight end in the red zone should mean
that bigger fantasy days are on the horizon. Along with Kelce,
Smith’s other top target has been wide receiver Jeremy Maclin.
Maclin leads the team in receptions (39) and yards (531) but has
only been able to score one touchdown so far this season. He missed
Week 7’s game against the Steelers due to the NFL concussion
protocol, but he is expected to be back on the field for Week
8 when the Chiefs head to London to face the Lions.
This should be a good matchup for Smith, Kelce, Maclin and the
Chiefs passing game as the Lions have been quite bad against opposing
passing games so far this season. They’ve given up between
16 to 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks in every game they’ve
played. While Smith himself is likely just outside the top 12
at the position given his general lack of upside, he is a very
safe option this week. Meanwhile Maclin makes for a great PPR
play this week as the Lions have given up 22 or more fantasy points
to opposing wide receivers in all but one game so far this season.
Maclin is really the only wide receiver who is being regularly
targeted in this offense, so this should be a fantastic opportunity
for him to bounce back onto the fantasy radar after missing a
game. Kelce also has a solid matchup as the Lions rank 24th in
fantasy points per game given up to opposing tight ends. They’ve
given up a touchdown to the position in five of their seven contests
so far, which should give Kelce owners some excitement heading
into Sunday’s tilt.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s almost impossible to replace
a player like Jamaal Charles when so much of a team’s offense
revolves around his very unique skill set, but the Chiefs might
have just found something that works at the running back position
in Charcandrick West. West did practically nothing from a fantasy
standpoint in his first game as the Chiefs’ primary back
in Week 6 against the Vikings, but bounced back in a great way
with a huge performance against the Steelers in Week 7. West rushed
for 110 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries while adding 19 yards
in the receiving game. It was his career 100-yard game and given
the Chiefs’ offensive scheme, it might not be his last.
The Lions defense has been bad just about everywhere, but one
of their worst areas has certainly been their run defense. The
nine rushing touchdowns they’ve conceded so far this season
are the second-most in the NFL and they’ve given up an average
of nearly 20 points per game (standard scoring) to the position
so far this season. With West taking nearly 90 percent of the
snaps for the Chiefs in Week 7, Knile Davis has become an afterthought
in this backfield and should not be considered for fantasy unless
there is an injury to West. West, however, might be a surprisingly
good play this week against this awful Detroit run defense. If
Kansas City hopes to compete in this game, they will likely need
to control the clock to keep the Detroit passing game off of the
field. That could mean a heavy dose of West which should put a
smile on the faces of his fantasy owners for the second straight
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There were still some who were holding onto
hope for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick coming
into his Week 7 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. That hope
may now be lost, however, as the 49ers’ signal caller dropped
his fourth game of 10-or-fewer fantasy points so far this season
in another humiliating loss. Often times there can be some “garbage
time” points for NFL quarterbacks even in games where their
team gets blown out, but that really has not been the case for
Kaepernick, aside from in the team’s Week 2 loss to the
Steelers. With Kaepernick’s wild inconsistency has come
similar up-and-down scoring from the 49ers’ wide receivers,
particularly Anquan Boldin. Boldin has scored double-digit fantasy
points (standard scoring) in three games this season, but has
been held to three or fewer points in each of his other four games.
Now dealing with a hamstring injury, Boldin becomes an even bigger
question mark as he and the 49ers head to St. Louis to face a
Rams defense that has been excellent against opposing passing
games so far this season. Through six games, the Rams defense
has conceded just five total passing touchdowns and that includes
games against Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson.
While opposing passers have thrown for at least 200 yards in every
game, their lack of scoring has allowed the Rams to be tied for
2nd in the league in fewest fantasy points given up to opposing
QB’s. Simply put, this is not a good matchup for the woeful
49ers passing game and it would be wise for fantasy owners to
bench their players in this offense if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: The only person more frustrated with the
San Francisco offense than fantasy owners of Carlos Hyde has to
be Carlos Hyde himself. Hyde started the season with a monstrous
Week 1 performance where he rushed for 168 yards and two scores,
but has since been back in the end zone just once. Not only that,
but he’s been held to 55 or fewer rushing yards in all but
two contests so far this season. On the positive side, Hyde is
one of only a few backs in the NFL right now who is getting almost
all of the carries for his team. Unfortunately, the lack of production
from the 49ers’ passing game has allowed opposing defenses
to stack the box which has really hurt the upside for Hyde and
the running game.
Week 8 does bring some optimism for fantasy owners of Hyde as
the young tailback does have what would be considered a solid
matchup against a St. Louis defense that has surrendered an average
of 16.7 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to opposing
running backs so far this season. The Rams’ pass defense
has been exceptional, but their run defense does have some holes
that other teams have been able to exploit. Washington did so
back in Week 2 when they ran the ball a whopping 37 times for
182 yards and two scores against this defense. If the 49ers defense
can keep this game close, look for Hyde to touch the ball around
20 times this week, which does still give him a decent floor even
given his low YPC on the year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s always disturbing when a team’s
highest scoring fantasy player is not their quarterback, but their
defense. That’s been the case for the Rams so far this season,
however, as their defense has been great, but their passing game
has been abysmal. The lack of high-quality targets to throw to
has certainly been an issue, but quarterback Nick Foles just does
not look like the guy who dominated the league in the second half
of the 2013 season when he was passing out of the Chip Kelly system
in Philadelphia. Back then, Foles was putting up high-end QB1
numbers with tons of touchdowns and a historically low interception
ratio. Now seems to have become the second-coming of Alex Smith.
From a fantasy standpoint, the Rams’ passing game is practically
a ghost town. The top fantasy receiver on the team, Tavon Austin,
has caught just 20 passes in six games and has been held to fewer
than 45 receiving yards in all but one game. The only other wide
receiver who seems to have any value has been Kenny Britt, who
leads the team with a measly 224 yards on 12 receptions, but has
caught just one pass over his past three games combined.
This St. Louis passing game is almost completely irrelevant from
a fantasy standpoint, but if they’re ever going to wake
up and give fantasy owners something to pay attention to, it could
happen at home against San Francisco here in Week 8. The 49ers
have been atrocious against opposing quarterbacks so far this
season. They rank 25th in fantasy points per game conceded to
the position and that number could be even worse if the 49ers
were actually competitive and forced the opposing offenses to
attempt to continue to score on them in more games. Even given
the shocking number of blowout losses that they’ve been
involved in, however, the 49ers have still managed to give up
an average of 18.1 fantasy points per game to the position, which
does make Nick Foles at least a bit intriguing as a bye week replacement
or QB2. Sadly, it’s almost impossible to predict who he
will throw the ball to, so the pass-catchers in this offense are
practically a lottery -- you could walk away with nothing or you
could hit it big.
Running Game Thoughts: After just three games as the team’s
full-time starter, there are already rumblings coming from national
sources that Todd Gurley might be among the best -- if not the
best running back in all of football. The rookie runner has taken
the league by storm since being let loose in this St. Louis offense,
rushing the ball for a ridiculous 433 yards over his past three
games. His usage is as high as any back in the league and despite
some concerns that another injury may be on the horizon for him,
Gurley is currently firmly planted as one of the premiere backs
in all of fantasy football.
Given the disastrous performance of their offense in, it should
come as no surprise that the 49ers defense has seen its fair share
of opposing running backs thus far in 2015. Opposing teams have
run the ball an average of nearly 25 times per game against the
49ers. Along with the heavy workload they’ve faced, the
49ers have also given up an average of 20.3 fantasy points per
game (standard scoring) to the position. All of this certainly
bodes well for Gurley, who has been taking nearly that many carries
per game for the Rams, and appears to be one of the most likely
players in the league to touch the ball 20 times here in Week
8. With that, Gurley is a must-start in all formats as he could
very well finish the week as the highest-scoring running back
in fantasy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but journeyman quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick currently ranks 11th in the NFL in fantasy points
per game at his position. That’s right, folks, through the
first seven weeks of the NFL season, Fitzpatrick is performing
as a QB1 in standard scoring leagues. Given the lack of production
that the Jets franchise has seen at the quarterback position over
the past decade or so, few could have possibly seen this coming,
but there’s no denying that Fitzpatrick has not only been
playing well, but he’s also been consistent. Although Fitzpatrick
himself hasn’t been in many fantasy lineups, what he has
done for his top two receivers, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker,
is make them viable every week fantasy starters. Marshall currently
ranks seventh among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game
while Decker doesn’t lag far behind at 18th. Both players
have been getting it done not only in yardage and receptions,
but also with touchdowns. The duo has been on the receiving end
of eight of Fitzpatrick’s 11 passing touchdowns so far this
season.
In Week 8, the Jets’ surprisingly high-powered passing
attack will be on the road in Oakland as they face a Raiders defense
that has given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks this season. The Raiders are also coming off of their
worst defensive day of the season where they gave up 336 yards
and three touchdowns to Philip Rivers. What’s been odd about
the Raiders’ defense, however, is that while opposing QB’s
have been beating them up, they’ve been doing a lot of their
damage by throwing the ball to the tight end and running back
positions. In fact, of the 11 passing touchdowns that the Raiders
have given up so far this season, only two of them have gone to
opposing wide receivers. Two more have gone to running backs,
while a whopping seven have gone to tight ends. This would normally
mean that the Jets’ tight end position should be in play
for fantasy purposes, but to say that the Jets’ tight ends
have been irrelevant at catching the ball would be an overstatement.
The only Jets tight end who has made a single catch has been Jeff
Cumberland, who has three catches for 26 yards and no touchdowns.
Needless to say, this is an intriguing matchup as the Raiders
have been good at holding wide receivers out of the end zone,
but this could very well be the week that it changes as the Jets
appear intent on getting the ball to Marshall and Decker in the
red zone.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s crazy to think that the player
who currently ranks third in the league in total fantasy points
from the running back position has only played in five games,
but that’s the reality. Jets’ running back Chris Ivory
has already been through his bye and missed a game due to injury,
but that hasn’t stopped him from amassing some huge fantasy
numbers so far this season. Ivory has already scored five touchdowns
on the year and he’s averaging a hair over 100 rushing yards
per game. He’s been a fantasy superstar and as long as Fitzpatrick
continues to throw the ball reasonably well, there’s no
reason to believe that Ivory won’t be able to continue to
perform as an RB1 as long as he stays healthy.
He should be back in line for another nice day here in Week 8,
as well, given that the Raiders have not been great against opposing
running games. Aside from shutting down the lackluster rushing
attacks of the Browns and Broncos, the Raiders have been abused
on the ground through their first six games, including giving
up a huge day to Danny Woodhead a week ago. While Woodhead did
the majority of his work in the passing game, the Chargers’
backs as a whole averaged nearly 4.5 yards per carry in a loss
to the Raiders in Week 7. That should mean good things for Ivory,
who has been running over and through much better defenses. Look
for Ivory to again touch the ball around 20 times which should
give him a good floor and a nice ceiling, making him a solid RB1,
even on the road here in Week 8.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the best young duos in all of football
this season has been that of second-year quarterback Derek Carr
and rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper, who was touted
as the most NFL-ready receiver selected in April’s NFL Draft,
has been setting the league on fire and has already caught three
touchdown passes in six games while going over 100 yards in three
games. He did both of those things for the first time this past
week in the Raiders’ big inner-divisional matchup against
the Chargers as he caught five passes for 133 yards and a touchdown.
It was also one of Carr’s best fantasy days so far this
season as he threw for 289 yards and three scores, including one
to veteran wideout Michael Crabtree who is also enjoying a career
resurgence in Oakland. What has been great from a fantasy standpoint
is that the Cooper/Crabtree duo has been doing almost all of the
damage for the Raiders through the air, leaving very little for
the other players in the offense to take away from them. That’s
pretty rare for this day in age, so both players have been able
to provide relatively consistent WR2 numbers for their fantasy
owners.
This passing game might find their job to be much tougher this
week, however, as they host a New York Jets defense that is currently
allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks. The Jets had given up an average of just 8.6 fantasy
points per game to quarterbacks prior to having 29 dropped on
them by Tom Brady in Week 7, so unless Carr became a future first
ballot Hall of Famer overnight, this isn’t likely to be
another huge game for the Oakland passing attack. Bench Carr this
week in what could be one of his toughest matchups of the season.
Certainly Cooper remains a start-worthy player due to what he’s
been producing, but he will likely see a heavy dose of Darrelle
Revis in this game, so his upside isn’t great. Perhaps the
more intriguing receiver is Crabtree, who won’t likely see
as much of Revis and could be targeted more because of it.
Running Game Thoughts: Along with budding young stars at quarterback
and wide receiver, Oakland is looking like it has the pieces in
place to build a very good offense going forward now that they
seemingly have found their feature running back in Latavius Murray.
Murray has averaged an impressive 4.4 yards per carry in 2015
while also adding 18 receptions in his first six games. An all-purpose
back who rarely concedes touches to other backs in the offense,
Murray is one of the safer weekly RB2 options in fantasy who gives
RB1 upside most weeks.
After running against one of the NFL’s most generous run
defenses in San Diego, Murray likely won’t find nearly as
many holes as he goes up against the Jets unit that has held opposing
running backs to an NFL-fewest 3.4 yards per carry so far. The
Jets have allowed just one rushing touchdown against them so far
this season and they’ve held four of their six opponents
to fewer than 50 yards on the ground without a touchdown. In Week
7, the Patriots saw this matchup and decided that they wouldn’t
even attempt to run the ball. They gave their entire backfield
just five total carries, which they took for only one yard on
the day. Don’t expect the Raiders to deploy a similar offensive
strategy as Murray has touched the ball at least 16 times in every
game so far this season, but expecting RB1 numbers out of the
Oakland running back might be a bit much.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The reigning NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers is once
again off to an incredible start to the season. His Packers are
riding high atop the NFC at 6-0 and his individual numbers have
been, not surprisingly, magnificent. Rodgers has already thrown
for 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions, and he’s
doing that without his perceived No. 1 and No. 3 wide receivers,
Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Adams is expected to be back this
week, which should give the Packers even more versatility in their
offense as he takes back his role as the team’s second-leading
pass catcher next to Randall Cobb. It’s worth noting that
Cobb has been lackluster during Adams’ absence as he has
made just 10 receptions for 105 yards and no touchdowns over his
past three games combined. There is some belief that Cobb’s
previously-injured shoulder is still causing him problems, but
certainly the extra focus that opposing defenses have been able
to send his way has also played a factor in his lack of production.
While Cobb has struggled, however, it has been veteran James Jones
who continues produce impressive fantasy numbers, primarily due
to his ridiculously high touchdown-to-reception ratio. Jones has
already caught six touchdown this season on just 21 total receptions.
Those numbers are almost certainly unsustainable, but with Adams
coming back, the Packers could find themselves moving the ball
even more effectively than they already do, which could give Jones
even more chances to make plays in the end zone.
In Week 8, the Packers face what will likely be their toughest
matchup of the season as they go up against the Denver Broncos’
top-ranked fantasy pass defense. The Broncos have conceded just
five touchdowns through seven games to opposing quarterbacks while
forcing nine interceptions. They’ve also given up the second-fewest
passing yards in the league. Much of this has to do with the way
their secondary has played, but perhaps more importantly has been
the pass rush that the Broncos have put on opposing teams. Denver
leads the league with 26 sacks on opposing quarterbacks and they’re
going to need to get after Rodgers here in Week 8 if they hope
to walk away with a win. This is an absolutely brutal matchup
for any player in the Green Bay passing game, but Rodgers is good
enough that he shouldn’t be benched in any matchup. Cobb,
Jones and Adams are all situational depending on individual fantasy
rosters, but it would not be surprising to see all three of them
walk out of this game with single-digit fantasy point totals in
standard scoring formats.
Running Game Thoughts: After finishing the 2014 season as the
No. 5-scoring running back in fantasy football, most fantasy experts
had Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy pegged as one of the top-tier
backs heading into the 2015 season. Through his first six games,
however, Lacy has not even come close to living up to that hype.
In fact, Lacy has not only failed to be an RB1 for fantasy purposes,
he’s failed to even be the RB1 for his own team as James
Starks has out-scored him on the year both in standard-scoring
and PPR formats. The concerns about Lacy’s production became
even stronger in Green Bay’s most recent game against the
Chargers when Lacy rushed the ball just four times for three yards
while Starks touched the ball 11 total times for 117 yards and
two touchdowns. Starks is dealing with a hip injury, however,
which has caused him to be listed as questionable for Sunday night’s
game. Even if Starks is active, sources close to the team seem
to believe that it will be Lacy who is given the bulk of the snaps
for the team in what could be a make-or-break game for him.
It won’t be easy for whoever ends up getting the ball in
this backfield, however, as the Denver defense has not only been
excellent against the pass so far this season, but they’ve
also been very good against the run. Certainly their 11th-ranked
fantasy defense against running backs has been more giving than
their top-ranked defense against quarterbacks, but they’ve
still been good overall. Opposing running backs are averaging
just 81 rushing yards per game and they’ve only given up
four rushing touchdowns through their first six games. While Lacy
has certainly struggled so far this season, it’s worth considering
that he also started the 2014 season off very slow in his first
six games before ripping off 10 straight double-digit (standard)
fantasy days to close out the regular season. With the weather
getting colder, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Packers
again lean on Lacy more heavily in the second half of the season
than they have early in the year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even the biggest Manning-doubter heading
into the 2015 season could not have seen this trainwreck coming.
Manning has been absolutely horrendous so far, throwing for just
seven touchdowns with an astonishing 10 interceptions. Despite
the fact that the passing yardage has been there for the most
part, Manning ranks 29th in the league in fantasy points at the
quarterback position. Fortunately for fantasy owners, Manning’s
top two receivers have been able to fight through bad play by
their quarterback to remain at least WR2 options on a weekly basis.
Demaryius Thomas leads the team in receptions with 48 while Emmanuel
Sanders leads the team with three receiving touchdowns. Both players
have a exactly the same number of receiving yards thus far: 527.
The rest of the team has been almost completely irrelevant from
a fantasy standpoint, however, as the team’s next leading
fantasy receiver, Owen Daniels, has just 14 catches for 85 yards
and two touchdowns on the year. While it is nice to know that
Manning is looking for his top two players regularly, defenses
also have seen it coming, which is part of the reason that he
has thrown so many interceptions. Without a viable third option
in the passing game, defenses are able to undercut routes and
cause a lot of problems.
Denver spent the Week 7 bye preparing for the Packers defense,
but even that extra week might not have this offense ready to
face a defense that has intercepted more passes (8) than it has
given up passing touchdowns (7). The Packers have been utilizing
a “bend but don’t break” philosophy, at least
against the pass, and it has served them very well. That’s
exactly the kind of thing that could cause Manning problems, however,
as he has shown a tendency to make mistakes against defenses that
can get after the quarterback like the Packers can, and force
those quarterbacks to take ill-advised shots down the field. Manning
ranks outside of what should be considered a startable QB1 this
week, which means that the only players in this passing game who
should be considered for fantasy purposes are Thomas and Sanders.
If we see the Manning of old return in this game, then we’ll
reanalyze things going forward, but now is not the time to be
trusting a quarterback who has been playing some of the worst
football in the league.
Running Game Thoughts: Like the back across the field from him
this week, C.J. Anderson is another player who ended the 2014
season in impressive fashion and had fantasy owners salivating
about what could be next heading into 2015. Those who invested
in Anderson, however, have been incredibly disappointed as the
Broncos back, like Lacy, is not even the highest-scoring running
back on his own team. Anderson has watched as Ronnie Hillman has
rushed for over 100 yards in two of his past three games, while
Anderson has been able to run for just 180 total yards on the
season with a 2.7 yards per carry average. Hillman, on the other
hand, has been substantially more productive, rushing for nearly
4.9 yards per carry along with a pair of touchdowns. While neither
player has been good enough to be even close to an every week
starter, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Hillman is a
better fit for the current Broncos offense and while both players
will likely continue to get carries, Hillman is the one who possesses
fantasy value at the moment.
If the Broncos can stay close in this game, there should be plenty
of touches to go around for the Hillman-Anderson duo. The Broncos
defense has been the best in the league so far this season, so
there’s reason to believe that Rodgers and the Packers offense
will be at least held in check for the majority of the day, so
a 25-plus touch day between Hillman and Anderson seems very possible
as the Broncos will try to limit the pressure on Manning. Hillman
should be the player who gets the majority of the touches here,
but the Broncos have done crazier things in the past, so it’s
tough to trust either player at the moment. If you’re looking
for a reason to bench both players, consider that aside from the
three touchdowns they allowed to Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs
in Week 3, the Packers have held opposing running backs to just
one rushing touchdown in their other five games combined.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers put up most of his monster
statistics in garbage time last week. While fantasy points do
not distinguish when the statistics come within a game, in real
life the Chargers cannot afford to get behind early on a weekly
basis. Rivers finished with 336 yards passing and threw all three
of his touchdowns in the second half after two first half interceptions.
He leads the NFL in passing yards and has a 15:7 TD to INT ratio.
Veteran tight end Antonio Gates returned from his four game suspension
in Week 5 and was a major contributor right away, but suffered
an injury to his PCL in Week 6 and was sidelined last week. The
latest reports anticipate Gates possibly missing “multiple
weeks” due to his knee injury which would be a major blow
to fantasy owners. The Chargers do have a young extremely talented
tight end in Ladarius Green to take his place. Green has played
well this season with and without Gates in the line-up and is
able to create mismatches against opposing defenses due to his
size and speed combination. Wide receiver Keenan Allen and running
back Danny Woodhead are also major contributors in the passing
game giving Rivers a lot to work with even if Gates is not around.
Stevie Johnson returned to action last week and should help pick
up the slack. This is a passing attack that can hurt defenses
in multiple ways, via short quick strikes or with one of the best
deep passing attacks in the league. The woeful Ravens pass defense
doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Baltimore’s pass defense has been up and down all season,
but mostly down. In Week 1, the team shut down Hall of Famer Peyton
Manning, which appeared impressive at the time until we saw that
it was merely the ghost of Manning they were facing. On the season,
the Ravens are allowing 283.3 passing yards per game and have
allowed 13 passing touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. The
Chargers will come out slinging after an embarrassing loss to
the hated division rival Raiders and the Ravens will be paying
the price.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers poor offensive line has made
it difficult for the team to establish much of a running game,
but veteran Danny Woodhead has been very productive by being a
safety valve in the passing game. Last week he scored two second
half touchdowns with the Chargers in serious catch up mode. Rookie
Melvin Gordon has struggled running behind the porous line and
has fumbled too many times for the coaching staff’s liking.
While he was suffering from an ankle sprain that slowed him down
the week before, the staff was likely also sending him a message
by not giving him a carry in the first half of last week’s
game. Brandon Oliver replaced him as the main ball carrier, and
while Oliver is a solid grinder, he has shown to be not much more
than a stopgap option. The team will need Gordon to live up to
his billings as a first round talent in order for the offense
to become more balanced.
The Ravens’ run defense is still one of the best in the
league so it will not come easy for Gordon, if the staff does
even give a chance. Through seven weeks the Ravens are allowing
only 102.4 rushing yards per game with 5 rushing scores yielded.
This will likely be another aerial show for the Super Chargers
making Woodhead the better bet from this backfield for fantasy
owners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Veteran Steve Smith, who announced that
he will retire after this season, is showing no signs of slowing
down even after suffering four cracked bones in his back in Week
4. Smith caught 5 passes for 78 yards and moved past Andre Johnson
for the 11th spot on the all time receiving yardage list. He should
move into 10th place, passing Chris Carter, this week while looking
to cement a spot in Canton someday. Joe Flacco has had very little
to work with otherwise in the passing game with all of the Ravens
injuries and offseason departures but has played well despite
the team’s 1-6 record. Flacco has thrown for 1,857 yards
with 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions through the first seven
weeks and will most likely be playing for pride the rest of the
way out. Rookie first round pick Breshad Perriman has yet to play
a snap and it’s looking like it may be a lost season for
the speedy wide-out, leaving the very average Kamar Aiken and
Crocket Gillmore as the top targets after Smith in this offense.
The Chargers’ defense is allowing 230.4 passing yards per
game with 13 passing touchdowns against this season, opening things
up for a possible shootout this week. The Chargers have not been
able to generate much of a pass rush and as a result they have
allowed the opposition 7.4 yards per pass attempt, fourth worst
in the league.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett
struggled last week against the stout Cardinals run defense. Overall
in 2015 he hasn’t been able to come close to matching the
numbers of his breakout 2014 season. Forsett is now 30 years old,
so it’s likely his peak season last year will be looked
at as an aberration. The decline isn’t a steep one as he
is averaging a very respectable 4.3 yards per carry and has 630
total yards with two scores in seven games. With Lorenzo Taliaferro
heading to the IR, rookie Buck Allen is the only back seeing carries
behind Forsett. Allen isn’t likely viewed as the heir apparent
to Forsett’s feature back role, but if necessary he is capable
of carrying the load for a season or two as a stop gap option.
The good news for Forsett owners is that the Chargers are coming
to town and they’ve been one of the worst run defenses in
the league. The team is ahead of only the Cleveland Browns in
stopping the run, allowing 132.1 yards per game and has given
up 7 touchdowns on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cardinal’s passing game has been
on fire and Carson Palmer is on pace to throw for more touchdowns
this year than he has in any other season. Palmer at 35 years
old has found a home in Arizona playing in a Bruce Arians’
offense that suits his skill set well. He isn’t afraid to
let it rip and has the weapons to put the ball deep and let his
receivers make plays. Larry Fitzgerald is having a career renaissance
and John Brown is building on his strong rookie season, but the
reemergence of former first round pick Michael Floyd is putting
the offense over the top. Floyd combines the best attributes of
the other two wide receivers on the roster and scored for the
second consecutive week on Monday Night. Tight end Darren Fells
missed last week’s game, and was replaced by veteran Jermaine
Gresham. The team also features above average pass catching backs,
David Johnson and Andre Ellington. When you combine this talent
with the offensive mind of Head Coach Bruce Arians you get one
of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Good luck, Cleveland.
The Browns have been a disappointment once again, especially on
the defensive side of the field where expectations were high.
The Browns are the 19th ranked pass defense and are allowing 242.1
yards per game and have given up 11 TDs through the air with only
4 interceptions. Star cornerback Joe Haden has been banged up
most of the season, exposing a lack of depth in the secondary.
Things will surely get better someday, but that someday is not
this Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Chris
Johnson has taken to the Arians’ offense and has shown solid
all around skills. He looks stronger and quicker than he has in
years and has gone over 100 yards three times this season including
last week. He showed tremendous power and burst on a 26 yards
touchdown run where he reversed fields and broke multiple tackles
on his way to pay-dirt. He is firmly entrenched as the team’s
starting running back ahead of rookie David Johnson and Andre
Ellington. The latter backs should be worked in, but neither has
a clearly defined role. Both are capable of producing though should
CJ2K miss anytime.
The resurgence for Johnson should continue as the cards face the
worst run defenses in the league. The Browns’ defense is
allowing 151 yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry, and has yielded
8 rushing touchdowns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown cooled off a bit after a three-game
stretch where he eclipsed 300 passing yards in each. McCown has
shown a penchant for getting nicked up and once again left last
week’s game forcing Johnny Manziel onto the field. He’s
expected to make it back for next week, but quarterback streamers
will need to keep an eye on the news. Given the difficult task
this week, you may want to look elsewhere anyway. McCown has played
unexpectedly well (281 ypg with 9 total TDs in six games) despite
lining up with no true star receiving target. In fact, 30 year
old tight end Gary Barnidge has come out of nowhere to catch 33
balls for 515 yards with 5 touchdowns. The big tight end had only
44 receptions during the first six years of his career so what
he is doing is quite unexpected, but he looks skilled enough that
it shouldn’t be considered a fluke.
McCown will be facing a Cardinals team that is giving up only
223.7 passing yards per game and has 12 interceptions. The team
boasts a tough secondary led by cover corner Patrick Peterson
and hard hitting safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Cardinals have been
a ball-hawking unit and would love turn McCown back into the turnover
machine that he was last year in Tampa Bay. With the way their
defense has played, Cleveland can ill afford that scenario.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland
running game has become a three man committee since Robert Turbin
was added to the roster, with second year power runner Isaiah
Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson. The running game however has
been mostly ineffective. Johnson is at least becoming a big part
of the passing game with 31 receptions for 263 yards and a touchdown
since returning to health. He has yet to make a significant impact
running the ball but was forming a decent tandem with second year
power runner Isaiah Crowell before Turbin returned from his high
ankle sprain. The Browns plan coming into the season was to be
a ball control offense but their defense has not played as expected
and the team has instead turned into an aerial show, making Johnson
the only dependable option for fantasy owners.
It will not be any easier for the Browns to establish a running
game this week as the Cardinals are one of this season’s
top ranked defenses against the run. They have limited the opposition
to 97.4 yards per game with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed.
It’s unlikely that the Browns can get their running game
going this week, which will put the ball in the hands of McCown
against the Cardinals’ opportunistic defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater is coming off of his best
game of the season and has the Vikings sitting at 4-2. Last week
he put up 316 yards and two touchdowns and could be heading in
the right direction after a slow start to the season. Bridgewater’s
resurgence coincides with the breakout of rookie Stefon Diggs
who was forced into the starting lineup due to injuries and responded
with 19 catches for 324 yards and a touchdown in the last three
games. Fellow starting wideout Mike Wallace recently compared
the youngster to his former teammate Antonio Brown, and so far
that hasn’t been as outlandish as it would seem. Kyle Rudolph
was expected to have a chance to breakout this season being healthy
and in Norv Turner’s offense, but so far has been a touchdown
dependant TE2 for fantasy owners.
For the second consecutive week the Vikings will head to division
rival’s home field where they will face a struggling secondary.
While the Chicago Bears are only allowing 220 passing yards per
game, they have given up a league leading 15 touchdown passes
despite playing one less game than many teams. The Vikings will
likely look to establish Adrian Peterson and rely on their defense,
but if they need to open things up the Bears will present the
opportunity to do so.
Running Game Thoughts: 30 year-old
Adrian Peterson is not showing any signs of age and is still showing
big play ability even in games where he’s been mostly bottled
up. Last week against the Lions, he struggled to find running
room for most of the day, before breaking a 75-yard run in the
second half to give him 98 yards on the day. The Vikings lost
a key member of the offensive line in the preseason and the line
hasn’t shown much consistency, but Peterson’s combination
of strength and speed is unmatched allowing him to escape and
find running room despite the blocking up front. He could slow
down as the season moves along, but his “vacation”
last season may help him stay refreshed. The Vikings has smartly
built their offensive game plan around AP, so volume should never
be an issue and we all know that when talent meets opportunity,
fantasy points will follow.
The Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses
in 2015 allowing 124.8 yards per game on the ground, but have
somehow managed to keep opposing runners out of the endzone, allowing
only two rushing touchdowns on the season. That seems fluky and
the number of passing touchdowns allowed back that up. Those fantasy
owners facing Peterson this week will likely not enjoy watching
this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has been playing reasonable well,
especially when one considers that he’s been playing most
of the season without his two top options at wide receiver, Alshon
Jeffery and Eddie Royal. Before the bye, Cutler held his own in
a shootout with Matt Stafford throwing for 353 yards with a touchdown
and an interception in the loss. Jeffery played for only the second
time all season in that game and was a major contributor with
8 catches for 147 yards and the score. Jeffrey should now be completely
healthy after the week off and is an extremely talented receiver
who can help both the Bears and his fantasy owners. The Bears
have run a conservative offense, in an effort to keep Cutler from
having to do too much, and that’s not likely to change anytime
soon, as it’s the John Fox way and its working right now.
“Working” being a relative term of course with the
Bears at 2-4. Another piece of this passing offense that’s
been missing is rookie Kevin White who was placed on the IR (Designated
to Return) list with a broken foot. Unfortunately the news on
him has not been good as the talk is that he’s not likely
to make it back this season. White is now only a future asset
for dynasty owners. In the unlikely event that any owner was still
holding him in a redraft league, it’s time to drop him.
The Vikings’ pass defense has managed to be a to be an above
average unit allowing 232.8 yards per game and only 8 touchdown
passes allowed in six games. Their lack of generating turnovers
is something that the Bears will hope continues, although that’s
just not in Jay Cutler’s nature.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte has 507 yards rushing with 2
touchdowns through his first six games but surprisingly only 21
receptions for 191 yards after catching 102 balls last season,
and generally being more well known as a pass catcher than a runner.
Forte has ignored trade rumors and kept his head down and put
the team on his back in the Bears conservative game plan. Jeremy
Langford has been mixed for carries behind Forte, and the overlooked
rookie has made the most of his opportunities perhaps making the
soon to be 30 year-old Forte expendable once his contract expires
at the end of the season.
The Vikings gave up 230 rushing yards in San Francisco on opening
Monday Night, but have turned it around in a major way since that
debacle. Even with that game included, the defense is now only
allowing 106.3 rushing yards per game on the season with only
three scores on the ground. The Bears will be looking to run,
but it may not come easy for them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton comes off of his bye week on
pace to finish the season with an impressive 37:5 touchdown to
interception ratio and has the Bengals sitting at 6-0. Dalton
is a fine quarterback but owes a good chunk of his success to
an outstanding supporting cast of skill position players and an
offensive line that has only allowed him to get sacked six times
in six games. A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert have all
been big parts of the offense and have helped make this a dangerous
passing attack with the abilities to make plays in the short and
deep passing games. Dalton has a quick release and is spreading
the ball around instead of force feeding the ball to Green like
he had in the past. While Green fantasy owners may not like the
new Andy, it’s the reason this team has played so well this
season. Giovani Bernard adds a solid playmaker coming out of the
backfield as well, forcing teams to pick their poison each week,
as there are just too many ways this offense can beat you. This
week the team heads confidently into Heinz Field to face their
most bitter rivals with a clear advantage in their passing game
against a porous secondary.
The young Steelers’ secondary has been a little better than
advertised but is still overmatched most weeks, allowing 276.9
passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
The Steelers have been able to manufacture a pass rush without
having one dominant player on the line. They’ve spread out
their 19 sacks on the season among many players. As stated above
however, the Bengals o-line and Dalton’s quick release have
handled opposing pass rushes just fine all season. It’s
unlikely that the Bengals passing game will be held in check this
week.
Running Game Thoughts: Outside of scoring 5 touchdowns in six
games, Jeremy Hill has been very disappointing in his second season.
The big back is averaging only 3.13 yards per carry and only has
232 rushing yards. Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson stated this
week that Hill “doesn’t play like I want him to yet”
and fantasy owners throughout the world are likely in agreement.
Whether it’s the knee injury that he suffered in Week 2
or something psychological, Hill looks far more tentative and
sluggish than he did last season. On the flipside, Giovani Bernard
is looking better than ever averaging 5.54 yards per carry on
his 77 totes and also contributing in the passing game. Until
Hill turns things around, logic would dictate that Bernard’s
snaps and carries will continue to rise at Hill’s expense.
Bernard has looked quick and explosive and while the team would
prefer Hill as their heavy lifter in the running game, there’s
only so long the weekly production can be ignored.
The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far, making
it even more likely that this week will be a “Gio game.”
The Steelers are allowing only 99.7 rushing yards per game, and
only 2 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh passing game has struggled
mightily while Ben Roethlisberger rested his sprained MCL the
last four weeks. Veteran Michael Vick was inaccurate and failed
to utilize one of the league’s best offensive weapons (Antonio
Brown) during his two plus weeks under center. Things went a little
better with the youngster Landry Jones throwing the ball, but
his lack of experience showed in Kansas City. The talk this week
is that Big Ben will return, but he has tempered those expectations
by admitting to knee pain last week after practicing and saying
he’s not sure if he can play in Week 8. Without knowing
how things will turn out it’s difficult to assess how the
passing game will perform this Sunday against a tough Bengals
defense, but it’s an obvious prediction to say that things
will go much better if Roethlisberger is able to play. Antonio
Brown owners are surely keeping their fingers crossed.
On the season the Bengals are allowing 261.5 passing yards per
game and have given up 8 passing touchdowns while grabbing 5 interceptions.
This aggressive unit has already recorded 17 sacks in six games
and will likely makes things difficult for either a hobbled Roethlisberger
or an inexperienced Jones at quarterback.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon
Bell continues to look like one of the best backs in the league
and has helped steady the ship, keeping the team afloat at 2-2
while Ben has been sidelined. The team will need to rely on him
either way, but especially if Jones gets the start over Roethlisberger.
During the last two weeks they have mixed in veteran DeAngelo
Williams, who played very well in Bell’s absence, going
with a run heavy offense. The amount of carries that Williams
sees will likely be heavily dependent on which quarterback plays
this week.
It will not come easy for Pittsburgh though as the Bengals are
strong against the run. They have limited the opposition to 109.2
yards per game this season with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed.
It’s imperative that the Steelers get the run game going
this week, and the Bengals should be fully aware of that.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston had the best game of his
young career last week in Tampa’s come-from-ahead loss to
Washington, completing 72.4 percent of his throws for 297 yards
with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions, marking the second
straight game in which he was interception-free. Winston has a
ways to go before fantasy owners can utilize him, and it won’t
get any easier for him now that Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy
are hurt. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is set to return this
week, but the only real fantasy option in the Bucs’ passing
game is Mike Evans.
The second-year pro was huge for fantasy owners last week with
164 yards and a touchdown, and should be viewed as a WR2 this
week against the Falcons. Atlanta is 25th in the league in pass
defense and dead last in sacks, but has also allowed the eighth-fewest
yards per pass attempt, and is tied for seventh-fewest touchdown
throws allowed. They have given up the sixth-fewest FPts/G to
quarterbacks and tied for third-fewest FPts/G allowed to wideouts,
but have surrendered the sixth-most FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: There were
hopes of a career resurrection for Doug Martin this year, and
after a tough beginning to the season, that optimism seems well-founded.
Martin picked up 136 rushing yards last week and added 35 more
through the air, making it three straight games in which he’s
amassed at least 100 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards. The
Virginia Tech product also scored three times in those games,
and he’s a legit RB1 this week against Atlanta.
The Falcons are second in the NFL in run defense and sixth in
YPC allowed, but no team has allowed running backs to score more
touchdowns or rack up more receiving yards, which is why they
have surrendered the third-most FPts/G in the league to players
at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan had another ineffective outing
for his fantasy owners last week, throwing for 251 yards and a
touchdown with two interceptions in the Falcons’ win over
the Titans. Over his last four games, he’s thrown for at
least 260 yards just once, has multiple scoring passes just once,
and can no longer be thought of as a weekly QB1. On the bright
side, Ryan is still getting the ball into the hands of Julio Jones,
who found the end zone last week for the first time since Week
3 and has put together back-to-back 90+ yard games. He should
make that three games in a row with a tantalizing match-up against
Tampa.
The Buccaneers have the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass defense,
but they’re also 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed,
tied for 26th in interceptions, and tied for 28th in passing scores
given up. They have been decent in terms of FPts/G allowed to
tight ends, but have surrendered the fourth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks
and are tied for third-most FPts/G allowed to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
failed to find the end zone last week against the Titans, which
is a newsworthy tidbit considering he had touchdowns in every
game after Week 2. Nonetheless, he did accumulate 116 rushing
yards – his third straight game with 100 or more yards –and
is sixth in the league in fantasy scoring. There is no decision
here for fantasy owners – Freeman will be in every available
lineup against Tampa, who are 15th in the league against the run,
17th in rushing scores permitted, seventh in YPC allowed, and
have given up the 14th-fewest FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to look at Eli Manning’s
numbers and not notice the 441 yards and three touchdowns he put
up against the 49ers, but it’s necessary to look at the
bigger picture. In the two games following that performance, he
has thrown for a total of 359 yards with a single touchdown and
two interceptions. Manning is averaging less than 20 fantasy points
per game, which is barely QB2 status, but having said all that,
he is capable of delivering at times, and has the best match-up
of the week for a quarterback, so installing him in lineups is
a gamble worth taking.
Less of a gamble is Odell Beckham Jr., who hasn’t delivered
the way he did last season, but has still been effective most
of the time. He had his worst statistical game of the year last
week against the Cowboys, but should be in all fantasy lineups
this week against the Saints. New Orleans ranks 26th in the NFL
in pass defense, 27th in touchdown throws allowed, and 29th in
yards per pass attempt given up. They are a middle of the road
team in FPts/G allowed to wide receivers, but have surrendered
the fourth-most FPts/G to tight ends, and the most to opposing
quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashad Jennings
has disappointed this season, to say the least, running for under
65 yards in each game and amassing only a pair of touchdowns.
He picked up a paltry 19 yards last week against the Cowboys on
a season-low five carries, and has no place in fantasy lineups,
even against a pliable New Orleans run defense. With Orleans Darkwa
and Shane Vereen in the mix, this is a fantasy situation to avoid.
The Saints are 28th in the league against the run, tied for 24th
in rushing touchdowns surrendered, 29th in YPC allowed, and have
given up the 10th-most FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has stopped throwing touchdowns
with much regularity, but the one thing he continued to do was
put up passing yards – until last week. Brees threw for
255 yards in his team’s win over the Colts, tying a season
low and breaking a string of three straight games with 310 or
more passing yards. He has just eight touchdown throws this year,
which is hurting the fantasy value of all Saints in the passing
game. There is no longer any New Orleans player that can be counted
on as a weekly starter, But Brees can be called a lower-end QB1
this week based on the match-up, and tight end Ben Watson is also
worth plugging into fantasy lineups against New York.
The Giants are 30th in the league in pass defense and 31st in
sacks, but only the Cardinals have more interceptions, and New
York is tied for 11th-fewest passing scores allowed. They are
in the middle of the league in terms of FPts/G given up to both
quarterbacks and wideouts, but have allowed the fifth-most FPts/G
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
picked up 143 rushing yards last week, which were 66 more than
he had in any other game this year. He also scored for the third
time in two games and is inside the top-10 in fantasy scoring
among running backs. Ingram did split carries evenly with Khiry
Robinson last week, which is a bit concerning in the long term,
but Ingram is a must-start this week against the Giants. New York
is 21st in the NFL against the run, tied for 17th in rushing touchdowns
ceded, 18th in YPC given up, have allowed the seventh-most receiving
yards by running backs, and the 11th-most FPts/G to players at
that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota did not play last week in
the Titans’ loss to the Falcons due to a knee malady, though
the team is hoping he can get back in action this week. Zach Mettenberger
started in Mariota’s place, and the results were predictably
mediocre. Mettenberger did manage to find Kendall Wright for a
touchdown and hit Delanie Walker seven times, but there were no
big fantasy numbers to be had. If Mariota does return, Wright
and Walker are low-tier fantasy options against a Houston team
that has been weak against the pass.
The Texans are 15th in the league in pass defense, but in most
every other statistic, they are below average, particularly when
it comes to touchdowns allowed – no team has given up more
through the air. And though Houston has been average in terms
of FPts/G allowed to tight ends, they are giving up the 13th-most
FPts/G to wide receivers, and the third-most to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee
does not have the worst rushing offense in the league; it probably
just feels like that to fantasy owners. Bishop Sankey showed promise
in Week 1 and Dexter McCluster had one solid performance, but
Antonio Andrews looks like the team’s lead back. He doesn’t
get enough carries to be a fantasy option and hasn’t accomplished
a whole lot with the touches he has received, so a juicy match-up
with the Texans will have to be ignored this week. Houston ranks
27th in the NFL in run defense, tied for 24th in rushing touchdowns
permitted, 22nd in YPC allowed, and have given up the fifth-most
FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Texans were embarrassed last week at
the hands of the Dolphins, losing 44-26 in a game that wasn’t
that close. Brian Hoyer managed three touchdowns passes, though
none came until after Houston was down by 41 points. The most
disappointing thing about this game (for those who have no rooting
interest in the Texans) was that DeAndre Hopkins was held to just
50 yards and no scores. A Houston wideout did have a huge game,
but it was from Nate Washington, who accumulated 127 yards and
two touchdowns. But Hopkins remains the sole player in the Texans
passing game that fantasy owners should be interested in, for
obvious reasons. He leads all wideouts in fantasy scoring and
is a weekly must-start, even with a somewhat difficult match-up
like the one he has this week against the Titans.
Despite the fact that the Tennessee defense ranks 27th in yards
per pass attempt, they are still second in the league in pass
defense, tied for 11th-fewest touchdown throws allowed, and tied
for sixth-most interceptions. They have given up the 11th-fewest
FPts/G to quarterbacks and the 13th-fewest FPts/G to wideouts,
but the eighth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster
was finally paying off for fantasy owners, scoring twice last
week during his team’s blowout loss to the Dolphins. Unfortunately,
those were his final fantasy points of the year because he’s
been placed on injured reserve with an Achilles injury. Alfred
Blue seems the likeliest candidate to get the most reps without
Foster, and has done some good things this year, but Houston may
also go to a rotation in the backfield with Blue and Chris Polk,
so it would be smart to hold off on inserting Blue into fantasy
lineups this week against Tennessee.
The Titans are 29th in the NFL against the run, tied for 20th
in rushing touchdowns surrendered, and 26th in YPC allowed. These
are poor numbers, but two of the four rushing touchdowns they’ve
permitted have come from players other than running backs, and
they’ve also given up just 95 receiving yards (the fewest
in the league) and no receiving touchdowns to running backs, which
is why they have allowed the sixth-fewest FPts/G in the league
to opposing backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck’s interception problems
haven’t ceased, which is a cause for concern among fantasy
owners. He threw two more last week in his team’s loss to
the Saints, and has tossed multiple picks in four of his five
games this year. Fortunately, he’s also thrown for over
300 yards with three touchdowns in consecutive games, which helps
takes the sting off the lost points due to the turnovers. Fantasy
owners will simply have to roll with Luck, and they can start
feeling better about T.Y. Hilton as well. He picked up 150 yards
and two scores last week, has caught touchdowns in two consecutive
games and is now in the top-10 in fantasy scoring among wideouts.
Luck and Hilton have a very tough match-up against this week,
and unless there is a better option just waiting to be put in
lineups, both should be active against Carolina.
The Panthers have been stingy against the pass all year, ranking
eighth in both pass defense and sacks, tied for fourth in interceptions,
second in yards per pass attempt allowed, and are tied for fewest
scoring passes surrendered. They are giving up the 11th-fewest
FPts/G to tight ends and the third-fewest FPts/G to both quarterbacks
and wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
has been about what was expected of him this year – a RB2
or flex play most weeks. He had just nine carries last week as
the Colts played catch-up to the Saints, a drop from the usual
amount of looks he gets, but not a huge one. This week, Gore’s
status remains about the same as it’s been all year as he
faces the Panthers. Carolina is 18th in the league in run defense,
tied for 20th in rushing touchdowns given up, 21st in YPC allowed,
and have permitted the 13th-most FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If Cam Newton didn’t have the ability
to put up fantasy points on the ground in the manner he does,
he’d be a fantasy liability considering he’s thrown
five picks and just two touchdowns in his last two games and has
thrown for less than 200 yards in four of his six contests this
season. Some of that is due to his obviously undermanned receiving
corps that features only tight end Greg Olsen as a fantasy option.
Newton remains a QB1 though, strictly because of his ability to
pick up points on the ground. Olsen should also be starting for
fantasy owners this week as the Panthers take on the Colts. Indianapolis
is 29th in the NFL against the pass, tied for 21st in passing
scores given up, and just two teams have fewer sacks this season.
They have allowed the 11th-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, the eighth-most
FPts/G to wide receivers, and the 12th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart has started to show some signs of life in his last two
games, running for 78 yards and a pair of scores two weeks ago
and adding 125 yards last week. His ceiling will be limited due
to the presence of Cam Newton, who has four rushing scores this
season, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be afraid to install
Stewart if the match-up is right, and the match-up is most certainly
right against Indianapolis. The Colts are 23rd in the league against
the run, 19th in YPC allowed, tied for 29th in rushing scores
surrendered, and have allowed the sixth-most FPts/G to opposing
running backs.
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