Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan has had a solid season, but for
fantasy owners, it hasn’t been quite good enough. Among
quarterbacks, he’s outside the top-15 in fantasy points
per game (FPts/G) and has only six touchdown throws with four
interceptions. The Falcons have just one fantasy-worthy pass-catcher
in Julio Jones now that Roddy White is off the grid, but Jones
has been slowed the past two games by hamstring issues while Atlanta’s
reliance on the run game has increased. Leonard Hankerson is trying
to make some noise as a WR4/5 but ranks 48th in FPts/G.
Despite those issues, Jones trails only Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy
scoring at wide receiver and is a WR1 on a weekly basis, including
this week against New Orleans. The Saints are 23rd in the NFL
in pass defense and are tied for 22nd in passing scores surrendered.
They haven’t been burned by opposing wideouts, but have
allowed the third-most FPts/G to both quarterbacks and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: If it took
you a few weeks to become a believer in Devonta Freeman, don’t
worry, you weren’t alone. After all, this is a guy who last
year as a rookie averaged less than four yards per carry and had
as many fumbles as he did rushing scores. Things are very, very
different for the Florida State product this season. Over his
last three games, Freeman’s amassed 362 rushing yards, 177
receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and countless fantasy victories.
He leads all running backs in fantasy points and it’s not
even close. He remains a high-end RB1 even with Tevin Coleman
(ribs) returning to action.
It certainly seems like he’s the real deal, and though it’s
a bit of a risk to play a running back on a short week, Freeman
has a golden match-up with the Saints and is an unquestionable
fantasy starter. New Orleans has permitted more rushing yards
per game than all but two other teams , are giving up 4.5 YPC,
are tied for 25th in rushing scores allowed, and has surrendered
the ninth-most FPts/G to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been one of the most reliable
fantasy performers at any position for a number of years, which
is why his mediocre start has been frustrating for those that
opted to select him in their drafts. Brees is currently 12th in
FPts/G at his position, is seventh in passing yards, and has six
touchdowns with four interceptions. It was a given that the loss
of Jimmy Graham was going to hurt, but it’s probably done
more harm than most expected. Brees spreads the ball around to
a cadre of receivers, but not one of them has more than one touchdown
catch. Brandin Cooks has been decent this season, but the team’s
leading receiver is Willie Snead, who led New Orleans with six
catches, 141 yards, and 11 targets in their loss to the Eagles
last week. With Marques Colston (shoulder) likely out, Snead will
continue to be a factor, and should be considered a WR3 this week
against the Falcons.
Atlanta is 29th in the league in pass defense, but is tied for
eighth-fewest passing touchdowns given up. So despite all the
yards they’ve allowed the Falcons have surrendered the 10th-fewest
FPts/G to quarterbacks and the sixth-fewest FPts/G to wideouts,
though they have allowed the 13th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The triumvirate
of Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and C.J. Spiller hasn’t
produced many results for the Saints (29th in rushing offense,
28th in average YPC) or fantasy owners. Ingram is the only one
capable of having any fantasy impact most weeks, and that depends
on the match-up. He should be considered a flex play this week
against an Atlanta team with some baffling statistics versus the
run.
The Falcons have an odd distinction in that they rank both best
and worst when it comes to their run defense. They have the league’s
top-ranked unit when it comes to rushing yards per game allowed
(just 78.4), but no team has given up more rushing scores. Atlanta
has also allowed the most receiving yards in the league to opposing
backs, and it all adds up to a team that has given up the third-most
FPts/G to running backs this year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer started the season as the Texans’
starting quarterback, but didn’t even make it through Week
1 before being replaced by Ryan Mallett. After four ineffective
starts, Mallett is out as the team’s starter and Hoyer is
back in. Hoyer had a solid game in relief of Mallett last week
during Houston’s loss to Indianapolis, but the only thing
fantasy owners care about is if he can get the ball in the hands
of wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins had 11 more catches for 169 yards last week, and he currently
leads the league in receiving yards and targets, is second in
receptions, and third among wideouts in fantasy points. He’s
a must-start WR1, even with a less than stellar match-up against
the Jaguars. Cecil Shorts (shoulder) is practicing this week and
is expected to play but Nate Washington will likely miss this
game with a hamstring injury. Jacksonville is 21st in the league
in pass defense and tied for 10th in passing scores allowed. They
have given up the 13th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest
FPts/G to wide receivers, but are tied for sixth-most allowed
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster’s
return from injury has proven to be less than dynamic, at least
when running the ball. He’s averaging less than two yards
per carry and in 27 attempts has a long run of just seven yards.
Foster has contributed as a receiver though, and picked up 77
yards through the air last week. Alfred Blue is dealing with a
turf toe injury and may miss this game meaning Chris Polk and
Jonathan Grimes would likely see snaps as Foster’s backup.
Foster’s struggles on the ground are concerning, but fantasy
owners can confidently plug him in as a
RB2 this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are second in
the league in YPC allowed at just 3.5 and are 16th in run defense,
but are also tied for 25th in rushing touchdowns surrendered and
have permitted the fifth-most FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When it comes to the passing game, the Jacksonville
Jaguars have been mostly irrelevant for a long time. Sure, there
was a decent Cecil Shorts season here, or a fluke Marcedes Lewis
season there, but mostly the cupboard’s been bare. This
is a team that last had a 1,000-yard receiver in 2005. That’s
so long ago that most people were still using dial-up to connect
to the internet, PlayStation 2 was the dominant console, and iPhones
were still two years away. The ignominious streak is almost assured
to end this year, as the team has not one, but two wideouts who
could breach the 1,000-yard mark. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns
rank eighth and 11th, respectively, in fantasy points among wide
receivers, and both have over 400 receiving yards to their name.
The pass-catching duo wouldn’t be so productive unless their
quarterback was playing well, and Blake Bortles seems to have
made huge strides in his second year. He’s seventh at his
position in fantasy points, and since Week 2 has nine touchdowns
and just a pair of interceptions.
All three have a place on fantasy rosters, but it might be best
to skip over Bortles this week, and Hurns is dealing with an ankle
issue, so check on his status before using him against a Houston
defense that has the potential to cause problems for opposing
offenses. The Texans are 10th in the NFL in pass defense, but
rank 22nd in passing scores given up. They are 15th in FPts/G
allowed to quarterbacks and 17th in FPts/G allowed to both wideouts
and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
has not established himself thus far during his rookie campaign,
but he did score for the first time last week via reception. The
Alabama product has averaged 3.0 YPC or less in three of his four
games this year, and isn’t a likely source of many fantasy
points, though an injury may prevent him from suiting up this
week against the Texans. Toby Gerhart has been taking reps with
the first team in practice this week and may get the start if
Yeldon sits. Denard Robinson (knee) has been limited in practice.
Houston is allowing just 3.8 YPC so far this season, but they
are 22nd in run defense and tied for 25th in rushing touchdowns
permitted while giving up the eighth-most FPts/G to opposing running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dolphins were on a bye last week, but
still made news after firing head coach Joe Philbin. The team
also reportedly brought in veteran NFL coach Al Saunders to help
with the offense, something fantasy owners can only hope happens.
Ryan Tannehill has been okay, but with seven touchdowns, five
interceptions and just over 1,000 passing yards, hasn’t
set the world on fire. Miami does have wideout Rishard Matthews
producing for fantasy owners, but the former seventh-round pick
did very little in their last game and there aren’t enough
throws to go around to get production out of him, Jarvis Landry,
Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, and rookie DeVante
Parker.
Until – or unless – things get a bit clearer, it would
be wise to stay away from most of the aforementioned, with the
occasional exception due to match-up, which isn’t the case
this week against Tennessee. The Titans own the NFL’s top-ranked
pass defense and are tied for 10th in passing touchdowns given
up. They have allowed the 14th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and
the eighth-fewest FPts/G to wideouts, but the eighth-most to opposing
tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller
is clearly the type of back who can make things happen, as evidenced
by his robust YPC average last year of 5.1, which is why it’s
somewhat baffling that the Dolphins haven’t given him the
ball more this year. He’s had more than 10 carries just
once this year, and that was in Week 1.
Hopefully for fantasy owners, the coaching change will mean more
chances for Miller to get something going, and he’s not
a bad flex option this week versus the Titans. New head coach
Dan Campbell has hinted the running game may be a bigger priority
but we won’t know for sure until we see it on Sunday. Tennessee
is 23rd in the league in run defense and tied for 16th in rushing
scores allowed, but only one team has given up fewer receiving
yards to backs, which is one reason why they have surrendered
the sixth-fewest FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota struggled statistically last
week during Tennessee’s loss to Buffalo, throwing for just
187 yards with an interception but no touchdowns. He did manage
47 yards on the ground and is 11th in fantasy points per game
at his position, but the performance was a reminder that going
with a rookie quarterback in fantasy is a risky proposition due
to their inevitable fluctuations in performance.
The Titans have a pair of pass-catchers with fantasy potential,
but neither Delanie Walker nor Kendall Wright contributed much
during the game against the Bills, with Wright speaking out about
his role in the team’s offense. He’s been inconsistent
this year, but may be worth a look this week against the Dolphins.
Miami is 15th in the league in pass defense and tied for 10th
in passing touchdowns surrendered. They are a middle-of-the-pack
team in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and tight
ends, but they have given up the eighth-most FPts/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: There is
absolutely nothing for fantasy owners to see here, period. Bishop
Sankey, Dexter McCluster and Antonio Andrews each get the ball,
and none of them do much with it. A running back by committee
is bad enough for fantasy owners, but one in which none of the
players are particularly productive is even worse, so a decent
match-up like the one with Miami is irrelevant. The Dolphins are
giving up more rushing yards per game than any other team in the
league, though they are tied for 10th in rushing scores allowed.
Still, all those yards allowed translate into a team that has
given up the 10th-most FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s rare for a team to have a legitimate
QB1, WR1, and TE1 at the same time, but that’s undoubtedly
what New England has. Tom Brady has been fantastic this year,
leading all quarterbacks in FPts/G and throwing 11 touchdowns
without an interception. Julian Edelman is fifth among wideouts
in FPts/G, and Gronk leads all tight ends in fantasy points despite
playing one game fewer than most due to the team’s early
bye. All are no-brainers and should be in starting fantasy lineups
this week against Indianapolis.
The Colts are 28th in the league against the pass and tied for
17th in passing touchdowns surrendered. They have given up the
eighth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fourth-most FPts/G
to wideouts, but have allowed the seventh-fewest to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Dion Lewis
is the team’s main option at running back, and leads the
team in rushing and is third on the squad in receiving yards.
LeGarrette Blount is also getting work in, and has run for over
70 yards in each of his last two contests, but isn’t as
reliable in terms of touches as Lewis, who is a solid option,
as per usual, this week against the Colts. The Patriots have opted
to use a gameplan heavy on the run in the past (Jonas Gray anyone?)
so Lewis and Blount could see extensive action Sunday night.
Indianapolis is 19th in the NFL against the run and tied for 16th
in rushing touchdowns allowed. Those are middle of the league
numbers, and the middle of the league is also where they stand
when it comes to fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts’ passing game is a mess
right now from a fantasy perspective. Andrew Luck was a turnover
machine before getting injured and missing the last two games
(though he should be good to go this week), T.Y. Hilton has been
getting plenty of looks but still hasn’t scored, Andre Johnson
was invisible until last week, Coby Fleener is inconsistent, and
for all the good things Donte Moncrief has done, he’s still
been under 50 receiving yards three times in five games. That’s’
a lot for fantasy owners to take in, but things will almost certainly
improve. Luck is bound to bounce back and Hilton will have multiple
touchdowns by season’s end, and at the very least fantasy
owners should continue to stick with the two of them this week
against the Patriots.
New England is 11th in the league in pass defense and tied for
eighth in passing scores permitted, though an early bye helped
them in that regard. For the year they have been in the middle
of the NFL in FPts/G allowed to quarterbacks and tight ends, though
they have given up the 10th-most FPts/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: There was
some trepidation among fantasy owners concerning Frank Gore going
to the Colts, but he’s eased any apprehension with his performances.
Gore had 98 yards and a score last week against the Texans and
is currently 13th among running backs in FPts/G. He’s a
decent flex option at the very least most weeks, and that holds
true for his contest with a New England team that hasn’t
given up a ton of fantasy points to backs. Ahmad Bradshaw has
been re-signed and could be thrown into the mix this week as Gore’s
backup. The Patriots are 20th in the NFL against the run, tied
for ninth in rushing scores surrendered, and have allowed the
eighth-fewest FPts/G to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When Kelvin Benjamin went down in the preseason,
the fallout was supposed to be a huge down year for quarterback
Cam Newton. That hasn’t been the case, however. The sixth-year
quarterback has put the team on his back and carried them to a
lead in the NFC South, in no small part due to his ability to
make great things happen when plays break down. Newton’s
39 rushing yards per game average are the most in the NFL among
quarterbacks and he has already contributed two touchdowns on
the ground through four contests. Rookie wide receiver Devin Funchess,
who many expected to take over for Benjamin as the team’s
top target, still remains a non-factor, but veteran Ted Ginn Jr.
has actually stepped up in a big way. Ginn leads all Carolina
wide receivers in catches (12), yards (206) and touchdowns (3).
He even caught two touchdowns on his only two receptions against
the Buccaneers. The team’s real top target, however, has
been tight end Greg Olsen who continues to be a stud, elite TE1
for fantasy owners. He ranks sixth at the position (standard scoring)
despite already having his bye week.
Olsen might again by the lead horse in the stable this weekend
when the Panthers head to Seattle to face a staunch Seahawks defense.
Seattle has been an elite pass defense for a few years now and
were widely considered to be the frontrunners to again lead the
league in that area, but the 2015 season actually got off to a
slow start for the “Legion of Boom.” Seattle has conceded
the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
after giving up a massive game to Andy Dalton and the Bengals
a week ago. Still, the Cincinnati offense is loaded with offensive
weapons whereas the Carolina offense is more built to run the
ball, control the clock and win the game with defense. With that
being said, it would be hard to envision a scenario where Newton
throws for anywhere near the 331 yards that Dalton did a week
ago. This is particularly true given Newton’s career track
record against Seattle. In three career games against them, Newton
has thrown for an average of just 146 yards per game and he has
thrown just one touchdown pass in those contests. He has also
never rushed for a touchdown against the Seahawks. Certainly Carolina
will need to rely on Newton if they hope to win this game, but
this is a very tough matchup in a hostile environment, so it would
not be surprising to see Newton again struggle against this excellent
defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Four great matchups to start the season
had some fantasy experts predicting a big start to the season
for Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart, but that
certainly has not been the case. The veteran tailback has amassed
a total of just 220 rushing yards through his first four games,
adding just 22 yards as a receiver despite being considered a
solid pass catcher throughout his career. Stewart simply has lacked
the explosiveness, and quite frankly the opportunity to have a
real breakout game. He has not yet taken 20 carries in a game
and his carries have actually fallen lower and lower each week,
all the way down to the disappointing 10 touches he got in a win
over the Buccaneers in Week 4. This would make sense if the Panthers
were getting blown out, but they’re 4-0! There just seems
to be a lack of a commitment to run the football by the coaching
staff and that is a huge disappointment for fantasy owners who
had high hopes of a return to glory for the former first round
NFL Draft pick.
Stewart’s disappointing start to the season won’t
likely be helped by a horrible matchup against the Seahawks in
Week 6. Seattle has long been known as a great pass defense, but
it has actually been their run defense that has been most impressive
so far in 2015. Seattle is one of just three defenses (Philadelphia,
Pittsburgh) who has not yet allowed a touchdown to an opposing
running back and they’ve also held opposing running backs
to the fewest fantasy points per game of any team in the league.
Going back to the 2014 season, the Seahawks have now allowed just
one total touchdown to a running back over their past 11 regular
season games. During that time, they have also not allowed a single
100-yard rusher. There might be better days ahead for Stewart,
but this is not likely to be the game that he breaks out in. Sit
him on your bench this week unless you’re in an absolutely
desperate situation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Not many people saw a 2-3 start to the season
coming for the defending back-to-back NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks,
especially when the team acquired one of the best offensive weapons
in the league, Jimmy Graham, during the offseason. Graham has
turned out to be a huge bust thus far, however, as he and quarterback
Russell Wilson simply have not been on the same page. Contrary
to popular belief, Graham’s target numbers are actually
not far off from the number he saw as a member of the Saints in
recent seasons, but the timing that he had with Brees seems to
be worlds better than what he has with Wilson. Of course, it also
probably doesn’t help that he is the only perceived “playmaker”
in this passing game, so defenses have certainly been keying in
on him, especially near the goal line. Wilson himself has also
gotten off to a slow start this season as he is currently the
No. 10 quarterback in fantasy points and has only thrown for multiple
touchdowns in one contest while failing to rush for even a single
rushing touchdown so far this season. While his rushing numbers
are fine, they are not enough to keep Wilson as an elite fantasy
option as he was a season ago and he has now been relegated to
the world of a matchup-dependent play for many fantasy owners
who’ve seen other quarterbacks outperform Wilson early this
season. Still, the skills are there for Wilson to be a high-end
fantasy QB and as long as his receivers like Doug Baldwin and
Jermaine Kearse remain consistent targets for him, his floor remains
relatively high.
Wilson will be in for a very difficult matchup as he goes up
against a Carolina defense that has conceded the third-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve
only given up four passing touchdowns through four games and even
held Drew Brees out of the end zone in Week 3. Despite those numbers,
though, there aren’t many fantasy teams that are likely
to have a better quarterback option than Wilson, so he is probably
going to be in most lineups. The same might not be true for Graham,
however, who might be a player that fantasy owners consider benching
in this game. The Panthers are the No. 1 defense in fantasy points
per game allowed to opposing tight ends so far this season as
they’ve given up just eight total receptions to the position
on the season. Still, Graham’s unquestioned pure talent
makes him a threat to go off at any time in any matchup, so it
would take a great matchup for another tight end to take his place
in your lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: He’s
been the foundation of the Seattle offense during their run over
recent years and there is absolutely no doubt that the team has
been missing their top running back. Marshawn Lynch left the team’s
Week 3 game with a hamstring injury and has yet to suit up again,
leading the way for the duo of Thomas Rawls and Fred Jackson to
take over in his place. Rawls, an undrafted free agent rookie,
has performed well in Lynch’s absence, rushing for 321 yards
over his past three games. Meanwhile Jackson, who has primarily
served as a third down back, has filled in as needed, particularly
on obvious passing downs. While Rawls has performed well and that
certainly has to give the Seattle coaching staff some confidence
going forward, there is no doubt that the team is hoping to get
back their leader, Lynch, as soon as possible.
After practicing in full on Thursday, Lynch is now expected to
play this Sunday in what could be a make-or-break game for the
Seahawks at home against the NFC South-leading Panthers. Seattle
is currently third in the NFC West and they’ve looked out-of-sync
without Lynch on the field. Thankfully for him, if he does suit
up, it will be against a Carolina defense that hasn’t been
great at shutting down opposing running backs. Through four games
this season, the Panthers have already conceded an average of
143.5 total yards per game to opposing running backs and they’ve
given up four touchdowns to the position in their four contests.
Lynch’s health remains the biggest question mark as his
hamstring could flare up at any time, but if he’s on the
field and ready to play, he should be in most lineups this weekend
against a poor Carolina run defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There have been some really great moments
from Joe Flacco this season and there have been some really bad
moments from him as well. With the Ravens now 1-4 and coming off
of an overtime loss to the Josh McCown-led Cleveland Browns, it’s
not surprising that some are reconsidering the claims that Flacco
has made in the past of being an “elite” quarterback.
He has not been that for fantasy purposes during this season,
particularly when he dropped a “goose egg” on his
fantasy owners against the Broncos back in Week 1. He then had
a few nice bounceback games against the Raiders and Bengals before
another disappointing performance against the Steelers in Week
4. The Week 5 loss to the Browns was actually Flacco’s best
fantasy game of the year, but not because of his passing where
he went 19-of-36 for a measly 210 yards and one touchdown. Rather,
Flacco surprised just about everyone when he rushed for two one-yard
touchdowns. Considering that this was the first time in Flacco’s
eight-year NFL career that he had rushed for multiple touchdowns
in a single game, it would be wise to assume that his rushing
for touchdowns is not something to be expected going forward.
So with the Ravens passing game struggling as of late, in part
because of injury to top receiver Steve Smith, it would make sense
for fantasy owners to be skeptical of Flacco even heading into
this good matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco has surrendered
the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
so far this season, including a massive 441-yard, three touchdown
game to Eli Manning this past week, and they have given up multiple
touchdown passes in three of their five games so far this season.
Smith is practicing at least in limited fashion which seems to
be a good sign, but most reporters seem to still believe that
he will miss this week’s game, which means that Kamar Aiken
will likely again be relied upon as Flacco’s top target.
Aiken, who has been solid in back-to-back weeks, could be an interesting
WR3 or Flex play if Smith sits, but doesn’t represent much
value if he is the second option at wide receiver. The only other
player in this passing game who seems to bring any sort of fantasy
relevance is tight end Crockett Gilmore who has practiced this
week and is looking increasingly likely to play this weekend.
He scored twice in the Ravens’ Week 2 game against the Raiders
and could be an interesting streaming option at tight end if he
does end up playing.
Running Game Thoughts: Along with injuries to Smith, Gillmore
and a host of others in the passing game, an injury to running
back Justin Forsett has the 2014 breakout star’s chances
of playing in doubt for Week 6. Forsett has not practiced since
rushing for 121 yards against the Browns in Week 5 due to an ankle
injury and if he is unable to play, it could be rookie Buck Allen
who steps in and plays in his place. Allen has looked solid so
far this season, rushing for 124 yards on 26 carries, but there
is no question that the Ravens would prefer to use Allen in a
complementary role, backing up Forsett. With bruising goal line
back Lorenzo Taliaferro now on the IR, Allen is the only other
running back on the roster who has even taken a carry so far this
season.
If Forsett is out, Allen could make for a sneaky play, particularly
in daily lineups where his price is cheap. The Week 6 matchup
against the 49ers defense is a good one and one that other teams
have certainly been able to exploit this season. San Francisco
has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs so far this season, including seven total touchdowns
to the position. Other than their now bizarre-in-hindsight Week
1 performance where they held Adrian Peterson in check, the 49ers
have now given up a big fantasy game to opposing running backs
in every game this season. This past week, they were beaten up
to the tune of 22 fantasy points (standard scoring) by the Giants’
unit of Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Andre Williams. Needless
to say, the opportunity should be there for at least a decent
game for whoever ends up being the primary ball carrier for the
Ravens here in Week 6.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite his disastrous start to the 2015
season, it’s hard to blame 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick
for the loss that his team suffered at the hands of Eli Manning
and the Giants in Week 5. Kaepernick played fairly well, throwing
for a respectable 262 yards and two touchdowns while not turning
the ball over and adding 23 yards as a runner. Those are the type
of numbers that fantasy owners would love to see out of Kaepernick
who is now in his fifth NFL season, but he simply has not been
even remotely consistent throughout his career, particularly so
far in 2015. Kaepernick does have two nice, 20-plus point fantasy
days, but he has totaled just 23 total fantasy points in his other
three games combined, including a humiliating Week 3 loss to the
Cardinals wherein he threw for just 67 yards with a whopping four
interceptions. Kaepernick’s inconsistency, of course, has
led to wild highs and lows for his receivers, particularly his
top pass-catcher Anquan Boldin who, like Kaepernick, has two nice
fantasy days and three absolute duds. It’s been even worse
for 2015 49ers newcomer Torrey Smith who rocked the Steelers for
six catches for 120 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, but has not
yet caught more than two passes in any other game so far this
season.
Even an amazing matchup against the Ravens secondary might not
be enough for fantasy owners to trust any of these players. If
you are considering anyone in the 49ers passing game, though,
do note that Baltimore has been absolutely atrocious against the
pass this season. They’ve already given up nearly 1,500
passing yards through five games along with three multiple-touchdown
games to opposing quarterbacks. This past week, it was journeyman
quarterback Josh McCown who embarrassed this defense to the tune
of 457 yards - a Cleveland Browns franchise record - and two passing
touchdowns. The only quarterbacks that the Ravens have even held
in check so far this season have been Peyton Manning, who has
struggled against almost every defense he’s played so far,
and Mike Vick, who had just four days to prepare to take over
for Ben Roethlisberger and start against the Ravens. Kaepernick
is certainly capable of throwing this matchup away and giving
his fantasy owners another dud, but if you’re looking for
a quarterback to stream or take a chance on in daily, Kaepernick
might not be the worst option. It should also be noted that the
Ravens have conceded the second-most fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers this season, including seven touchdowns to the
position, so there is certainly the potential for a couple touchdowns
to go to Boldin and Smith.
Running Game Thoughts: Like other members of the San Francisco
offense, it has certainly been an up-and-down season for 49ers
running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde started off the season about as
strong as he possibly could, ending Week 1 as the highest-scoring
back in fantasy football after a monster performance against the
Vikings. However things went south shortly thereafter as Hyde
proceeded to rush for a total of just 114 yards and no touchdowns
over the course of his next three games - all 49ers losses. The
next game that the 49ers were actually close in came in Week 5
when they went to overtime against the Giants. With the score
relatively close, the 49ers were able to rely on Hyde a bit more
and he didn’t let them down, rushing for 93 yards and a
touchdown on 21 carries.
With Hyde not being involved in the passing game much, his usage
really comes down to gameflow. When the 49ers are close or up
in a game and can utilize him as a runner, he seems to perform
fairly well. But when they’ve gotten down early, he has
practically been a non-factor by the end of the game. This makes
him a tough play against good teams, but really an ideal play
against a team like Baltimore. The Ravens haven’t been bad
against opposing running backs as they have given up the 10th-fewest
fantasy points per game to the position, but a lot of that has
been because opposing teams have been able to pass all over them.
While Kaepernick could put up some nice numbers in this game,
chances are good that if the game is close, the 49ers are going
to look to Hyde to control the pace of the game and reduce the
chance for turnovers. Baltimore might be without their top running
back, wide receiver and tight end - and they’re on the road
- so a blowout doesn’t seem probable. Therefore there should
be a real chance for Hyde to touch the ball around 20 times this
week, which should be good enough to make him a solid RB2 with
RB1 upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak announced
earlier this week that he isn’t considering benching Peyton
Manning. The fact that the idea of sitting the future Hall of
Famer for an unproven Brock Osweiler is broached tells you all
you need to know about the Broncos’ passing game. Things
took a slight turn upwards once Kubiak finally abandoned his roll
out based passing attack and allowed Manning to operate out of
the shotgun, but Manning’s sharp mind is just not able to
overcome his serious lack of arm strength. He’s only thrown
6 touchdowns against 7 interceptions and last week the team failed
to score an offensive touchdown for the second time this season.
Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are still talented enough
to keep the chains moving when Manning can float the ball out
to them, but Manning is no longer capable of making stars out
of players the likes of Bennie Fowler, Andre Caldwell, Jordan
Norwood or washed up veteran Owen Daniels.
The Browns have a talented defense but have been a massive disappointment
so far. The Browns are the 18th ranked pass defense and are allowing
251 yards per game and have given up 10 TDs through the air with
only 1 interception. The Browns feature one of the best cover
corners in the league in Joe Haden, but he’s been banged
up and could miss this week’s game and they have little
else in the secondary. This should be a game where the Broncos
can move the ball through the air, and it will be even more telling
about Manning’s future if they cannot.
Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos’
running game has been every bit as bad as its passing game. The
problem starts with an extremely subpar offensive line, but C.J.
Anderson, who many predicted for a breakout season, has looked
sluggish and slow through any holes that are sporadically available.
Ronnie Hillman, the speedy veteran, has looked a bit better and
has big play capability, but he hasn’t consistently found
running room either. The lack of any running game also hurts the
play action based Kubiak passing game. The team will have to hope
the inexperienced men up front get it together soon, as the team
can’t depend on the defense to score the team’s touchdowns
every week.
The Broncos catch a break this week, as they face the worst run
defenses in the league. The Browns’ defense is allowing
149.4 yards per game, at 5.0 yards per carry, on the ground and
has yielded 6 rushing touchdowns. Expect the Broncos to try and
get the run game going by exploiting this favorable matchup which
could also open up the passing game late.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown is coming off the best statistical
passing game in the history of the Browns’ franchise. McCown
threw for 457 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions against
a Ravens team that was desperate for a win. McCown eclipsed 300
passing yards for the third consecutive week, despite not having
a lot to work with. McCown lines up with only the mediocre Brian
Hartline and tiny targets Travis Benjamin, Andrew Hawkens and
Taylor Gabriel running patterns. However, the true star target
for McCown has been 30 year-old tight end Gary Barnidge who has
come out of nowhere to catch 20 balls for 319 yards with three
scores to coincide with McCown’s three game hot streak.
The lumbering tight end had only 44 receptions during the first
six years of his career but has 24 already in 2015, including
one with his legs last week for a late game touchdown. He’s
emerged as McCown’s favorite target, which makes some sense
when you recall that McCown’s career resurgence started
with his stint with the Bears when he was throwing to giant targets
like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett.
McCown will have a tough time keeping his hot streak going against
Denver’s top 5 pass defense. The Browns will catch a bit
of a break, however, as pass rusher Demarcus Ware (4.5 sacks)
will miss the game and cornerback Aquib Talib will play but may
be a bit hobbled with an ankle sprain. Denver will still have
a fierce pass rush with Von Miller and rookie Shane Ray leading
the way, but Ware paired with Miller was virtually unstoppable
most weeks.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Duke Johnson is becoming a big part
of the passing game following up his 9- 85-1 Week 4 stat line
with 6 catches for 55 yards this past week. He has yet to make
a significant impact running the ball but forms a decent tandem
with second-year power runner Isaiah Crowell. Crowell surprisingly
has also performed better in the passing game than as a runner.
He totaled 87 combined yards last week with a receiving touchdown.
Robert Turbin could be back this week, but the former Seahawk
has also traditionally been more effective in the passing game
than as a runner. The Browns would like to be a ball control offense
but their defense has not played as well as expected and the team
has instead turned into an aerial show. If Turbin does make it
back from his high ankle sprain, it could be a three-man rotation
further muddying things up for fantasy owners.
The Broncos are also a top 10 run defense, allowing only 85.2
rushing yards per game with 5 rushing scores. The defense has
carried the team throughout the five game winning streak and they
will likely need to come up big again against a suddenly powerful
Cleveland offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bears have won two consecutive games
since quarterback Jay Cutler returned to action, despite missing
their top two wide receivers last week. Alshon Jeffery missed
a large part of the preseason with a calf injury before returning
for Week 1. He has not played since due to a reported calf strain
and hamstring injury despite a few positive reports during that
time frame that indicated he was nearing a return. He’s
expected to return this week but we won’t know for sure
until pregame warm-ups. The coaching staff has generally not been
very forthcoming with updates on injured players. Eddie Royal
missed last week’s game leaving Marquess Wilson and Josh
Bellemy manning the receiver positions. The Bears have run a conservative
offense, and Cutler has played reasonably well. He hasn’t
completely eliminated turnovers (3 interceptions and 1 fumble)
in four games, but he has done a better job protecting the football.
He led the team to a come from behind victory last week finding
running back Matt Forte in the back of the endzone for the go
ahead score. Look for the team to continue playing in a conservative
fashion, as it’s the John Fox way and its working right
now.
The Lions defense gave up early last week as the team suffered
a humiliating defeat against Arizona. On the season the Lions’
pass defense is allowing 249 yards per game with 9 touchdown passes.
They have generated 12 sacks on the season so their pass rush
could bring out bad habits for their old friend Jay.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
caught 102 passes last season, but this year he’s putting
the “running” back in the running back position. He
has 438 yards rushing with a touchdown and only 18 receptions
for 171 yards on the season. Despite the rumors swirling around
that the 29 year-old back in the last year of his contract may
be traded away, Forte continues to keep his head down and put
the team on his back. The team should look to continue to protect
Jay Cutler by running Forte early and often so long as their better
than expected defense continues to keep games close. Veteran Jacquizz
Rodgers was placed on IR and the team went out and signed form
Falcon speedster Antoine Smith. He will be joining rookie Jeremy
Langford in the mix for carries behind Forte.
The Lions run defense took a hit this offseason with the departures
of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and has become increasingly
worse during the course of the season. The team is now allowing
126.4 yards per game on the ground and has yielded 8 rushing touchdowns.
This should be a decent matchup for the Bears’ running game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Starting pitcher Matthew Stafford was pulled
in the sixth inning last week after being roughed up by the Arizona
Diamondbacks….errrrrr Cardinals. It was Head Coach Jim Caldwell
that likened Stafford’s benching during last week’s
game to a starting pitcher getting taken out for a relief pitcher.
He did so while assuring the media that Safford is still the team’s
starting quarterback despite his struggles. Stafford has been
beaten up badly during the first several weeks of this season
and he’s looking like a shell of himself. The Lions o-line
is not giving him any time and as a result the play calling has
been conservative with a lot of short quick passes limiting the
big play abilities of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Second year
tight end Eric Ebron, was unable to play last week due to a knee
injury which forced him out of the prior week’s game but
he is expected to return in Week 6. There is still some hope for
a turnaround in the Motor City, but right now this passing attack
is stalled out on the side of the road.
The Bears’ defense has been surprisingly stingy in giving
up yards through the air allowing only 185.5 yards per game but
they haven’t been stingy in allowing teams into their endzone,
giving up 11 passing touchdowns through five weeks. Defensive
coordinator Vic Fangio has the unit playing better than anyone
could have realistically expected, but the lack of pass rush and
inability to create turnovers could eventually catch up and help
Matthew Stafford to regain some of his lost confidence.
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah
created a lot of buzz this preseason, but so far the Lions’
running game has been stagnant. Abdullah put two more balls on
the ground last week, and while only one was lost due to a defender
touching the second ball while out of bounds, that was enough
to keep the rookie on the sidelines for the rest of the game.
Veteran Joique Bell has missed most of the season so far after
an offseason spent recovering from multiple surgeries, but has
talked about returning this week. Last week the “big back”
role went to rookie Zach Zenner, who performed adequately given
the circumstances. The rookie out of South Dakota State gained
30 yards on 10 carries and caught a pass for 7 yards. He could
see a few more snaps if Bell does miss another week and could
eventually move the plodding veteran out of the job for good.
Theo Riddick mixes in as a pass catching option out of the backfield
and has looked very good in that role. Riddick is developing into
a solid start in PPR leagues given the team’s penchant for
falling behind in games.
The Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses
in 2015 allowing 118.8 yards per game on the ground so perhaps
Abdullah can find his groove once again as long as Jim Caldwell
forgives him for his butter fingers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith is finally targeting his wide
receivers… well wide receiver at least. Jeremy Maclin, the
receiver who ended one of the more embarrassing streaks in NFL
history in Week 4, was targeted 12 times last week doubling the
amount of targets to tight end Travis Kelce. Smith did technically
throw another touchdown pass to a wide receiver last week as he
hit De’Anthony Thomas on a screen pass that the converted
running back took to the endzone. The Chiefs once again ran a
very conservative offense which backfired against them, as they
let a 17-3 halftime lead disappear after running back Jamaal Charles
left the game with a knee injury that was later diagnosed as a
torn ACL. Perhaps the Chiefs will rely on the passing game a bit
more now that Charles will miss the rest of the season which should
mean a bump in targets for Maclin and Kelce, especially with the
targets to the running back position likely to be dropping.
The Vikings come off the bye week currently sitting as the 12th
ranked pass defense yielding 232.3 passing yards per game and
5 touchdowns in four games. The last time they were on the field
they held Peyton Manning mostly in check, a feat that is no longer
an impressive one however. The Chiefs have allowed a large number
of sacks and the Vikings are averaging two sacks per game so getting
to the quarterback could be a key factor in this matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned,
Jamaal Charles suffered a torn ACL leaving the team with a huge
hole at the position. Knile Davis has filled in capably for Charles
in the past, but second year runner Charcandrick West has reportedly
passed Davis on the depth chart and saw the bulk of the snaps
and carries after Charles exited last week. West came out of small
school Abilene Christian with elite level measurable and head
coach Andy Reid compares him favorably to Charles. West should
be the leader of the committee but Davis offers more size and
Reid has publically acknowledged his past contributions to the
team. Davis should see a fair amount of carries in a change of
pace role and perhaps see the goal-line carries. Former Seahawk
RB/FB hybrid Spencer Ware was called up from the practice squad
and could conceivably challenge for playing time as well.
The Vikings gave up 230 rushing yards in San Francisco to open
the season but have settled down during the following three weeks
of play. The Vikings now sit in the middle of the pack among rushing
defenses allowing 125.5 yards per game on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater is completing 67% of his
passes over the course of his first four games, but is only averaging
6.7 yards per attempt. Bridgewater is mostly throwing short passes,
despite the presence of downfield threats like Mike Wallace and
Charles Johnson, and has only thrown for 2 touchdowns on the season.
Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner is keeping the reins on his
young quarterback, keeping the offense ultra conservative which
is somewhat surprising after Bridgewater showed that he was able
to attack downfield as a rookie. The return of running back Adrian
Peterson, and his early season success does make this approach
hard to argue with, but it is stunting the development of their
franchise quarterback. The offensive line has also contributed
in the team’s lack of downfield passing as Bridgewater has
been forced to get the ball out quickly or scramble away from
pressure each week. In Week 4 alone he was sacked seven times.
For now there is no one from this passing offense that you want
in your line-up with the possible exception of tight end Kyle
Rudolph and even that is only out of desperation where you would
be hoping for a touchdown catch.
The Chiefs’ pass defense could be the impetus to opening
up the passing game as they have been brutal against the pass
this season. The team is allowing 284.6 passing yards per game
and have yielded a league worst 13 passing touchdowns. This is
the week to unleash the kid from Lousiville.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson
was unexpectedly used sparingly in Week 1 but has since been unleashed
on each subsequent opponent. He has 372 yards and 3 scores on
the ground in four games also contributing 92 additional yards
through the air. Peterson is now 30 years old so it’s unlikely
he will hold up to such a heavy workload over the course of the
season, but for now the Vikings offense is being carried on his
back. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down however,
so perhaps last season’s suspension kept some spring in
those 30-year-old legs.
The stout Chiefs’ run defense will present a challenge to
the Vikings’ run first game plan. Kansas City has allowed
only 4 rushing touchdowns on the season and is allowing only 98.6
yards per game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers continues to chug along as
the elite quarterback that no one seems to pay much attention
to. He is averaging 322.8 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game
on the season. Last week veteran tight end Antonio Gates returned
from a four game suspension after testing positive for a P.E.D.
during the offseason. Gates had no rust to shake off as he scored
a touchdown on the Chargers’ first possession on his way
to a 9-92-2 stat line. Gates played mostly on third downs and
in the redzone but his fantasy owners can’t complain about
him being worked in slowly with those results. Wide receiver Keenan
Allen, tight end Ladarius Green and running backs Danny Woohead
and Melvin Gordon were all major contributors in the passing game
last week. Stevie Johnson, who was starting to establish himself
as a Rivers’ favorite sat out with a hamstring injury and
it will be interesting to see where he ends up in the pecking
order once he returns to health. He could find himself third in
line, at best, behind Gates and Allen.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing only 186.2 yards per
game in 2015 which once again places them in the top 10 of pass
defenses in the league. Their fierce pass rush led by Julius Peppers
and Clay Matthews has 20 sacks on the season already and could
cause major problems for Rivers sitting behind a porous offensive
line. The Chargers like to take their shots downfield but Rivers
is also adept picking teams apart using a short passing attack.
That is likely the way they will need to go this week in order
to take some bite out of the pass rush.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers
poor offensive line has made it difficult for the team to establish
much of a running game, but veteran Danny Woodhead and rookie
Melvin Gordon have been productive by being safety valves and
using their quickness and agility to gain yards after the catch.
Gordon, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2015 draft was far from
perfect on Monday Night but looked as good as he has all season.
Too often the holes are few and far between, but he showed a lot
of fight in getting all he could on most of his carries. This
season it’s hard to imagine any big rushing days for Chargers’
running backs, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t
any fantasy value to be had.
The Packers are a well below average run defense, allowing 130.2
yards per game and 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. Last week
rookie Todd Gurley and the Rams ran the ball all over Lambeau
Field, but fellow rookie Melvin Gordon isn’t likely to repeat
Gurley’s performance.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s a nice problem to have when your
team’s starting quarterback admits the offense is “struggling”
because he’s only thrown for 465 yards and 3 touchdowns
during a two game span. Rodgers is coming off a two interception
game against the Rams last week which isn’t something that
normally happens at Lambeau. In fact, it was his first interception
at home in his last 587 attempts. It surely hasn’t helped
that Randle Cobb has been slowed with a shoulder injury and that
Davante Adams hasn’t played since leaving Week 3 with an
ankle injury. As everyone knows, Jordy Nelson was lost for the
year during the preseason so Rodgers is playing without any of
his top 3 targets being fully healthy. Adams is practicing this
week and may return and to be honest last week’s down game
for Cobb likely had little to do with his shoulder injury. The
Packers are starting to get good production from their second
year tight end Richard Rodgers and of course veteran James Jones’
release from the New York Giants late in the preseason was a blessing
for the Packers. Things are going to get better quickly.
The Chargers may not quite be the cure that the Packers are looking
for though as they have been a solid pass defense. The defense
is allowing only 218.8 passing yards per game and has only allowed
8 passing touchdowns this season.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
is another member of the “banged up club” in the Packer
offense. He suffered an ankle injury earlier in the season but
has been playing through it and while he’s slowed down a
bit, he’s still producing but not at the levels that excite
fantasy owners. Lacy is averaging 4.1 yards per carry but only
51.4 rushing yards per game and shockingly he only has one rushing
touchdown on the season. Given his role in this high powered offense,
those numbers should pick up soon, so be patient.
The good news for Lacy is that the Chargers are coming to town
and they’ve been one of the worst run defenses in the league.
The team is allowing 132.4 yards per game and has given up 5 touchdowns
on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cardinals passing game has been on fire
and Carson Palmer is on pace to throw 42 touchdowns this season.
Palmer at 35 years old is off to one of the best starts of his
career and has found a home in Arizona playing in a Bruce Arians’
offense that suits his skill set well. The leaky o-line that is
in front of him is probably the only thing that could derail the
machine that the passing game has become. Larry Fitzgerald is
having a career renaissance and John Brown is building on his
strong rookie season giving Palmer outstanding weapons to work
with. Throw in an inexperienced but talented tight end like Darren
Fells and above average pass catching backs like David Johnson
and Andre Ellington and you have the makings of a potent offense.
The young Steelers’ secondary has been a little better than
advertised through three weeks allowing 257 passing yards per
game with 9 touchdowns but only 3 interceptions. They haven’t
given up a ton of big plays, but have allowed Tom Brady and Philip
Rivers to pick them apart using the short passing game. The Cardinals
like to take their shots downfield, so the lack of a short quick
passing game could play into the Steelers’ strengths unless
Arians adjusts.
Running Game Thoughts: The coaching
staff tried to ease Andre Ellington back into the offense last
week, but he wasn’t having it, taking his fourth quarter
carry for a 63-yard touchdown. Ellington was expected to assume
a third down/change of pace back role behind veteran Chris Johnson
but only saw three carries which all came late with the game out
of hand. The 30 year-old Johnson has taken to the Arians’
offense and has shown solid all around skills and looks quicker
than he has in years. He went over 100 yards last week and is
now firmly entrenched as the team’s starting running back.
Rookie David Johnson was used as the goaline back last week and
scored twice. The only thing that’s clear in this backfield
is that Chris Johnson should see a fair amount of carries each
week. Ellington and David Johnson should be worked in, but it’s
unclear if Ellington’s role will increase and if David Johnson
is the clear short yardage back going forward. We will need to
watch and see how things progress.
The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far, allowing
only 101.1 yards per game, and only 1 rushing touchdown. Inside
linebacker Ryan Shazier has missed the last two games with a shoulder
injury and may miss another. If he should miss the game the Cardinals
will find it easier to keep their running game clicking.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh passing game took a tremendous
hit when Ben Roethlisberger sprained his MCL in St. Louis during
Week 3. Veteran Michael Vick has shown to be inaccurate and has
failed to utilize one of the league’s best offensive weapons,
Antonio Brown during the last two weeks. Brown expressed some
frustration this week about Vick not being aggressive enough,
despite the team winning last Monday Night’s game in San
Diego. Vick was mostly bad in that contest outside of one deep
connection for a touchdown with Markus Wheaton. Ben really wants
to play this Sunday against his former offensive coordinator,
Bruce Arians. He has even taken reps in practice, but with his
knee seriously affecting his mobility and with a bye next week,
it’s pretty unlikely the team takes any chances of rushing
him back too early. It looks like another week of an ineffective
passing game led by Mike Vick.
On the season the Cardinals are averaging 235.2 passing yards
per game against and have given up 7 touchdowns and have 11 interceptions.
The team boasts a tough secondary led by cover corner Patrick
Peterson and hard hitting safety Tyrann Mathieu, but unlike last
season under Todd Bowles the team has not generated a heavy pass
rush so far. Vick hasn’t been as prone to turning the ball
over like he has the last several years and seeing time in the
pocket could help him maintain that. However the Cardinals have
been a ball-hawking unit and would love turn Vick back into the
turnover machine he’s been in recent seasons.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon
Bell continues to look like one of the best backs in the league
following his two game suspension to start the season. The patience
he shows behind the line as he lets the blocks get set is something
to behold. The team will need to rely more on the rushing attack
with Vick struggling. Last week they mixed veteran DeAngelo Williams
back into the gameplan a little more after he was a non-factor
the prior two games. The team will need Bell and Williams now
more than ever and volume should not be an issue.
It will not come easy for Pittsburgh though as the Cardinals were
one of last season’s top ranked defenses against the run
and they have limited the opposition to 97.4 yards per game this
season with only 2 rushing touchdowns allowed. It’s imperative
that the Steelers get the run game going this week, and the Cardinals
should be fully aware of that.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You know who’s legit? Andy Dalton.
The modern version of the NFL is one where younger players are
no longer protected, but rather thrown into the fire to learn
on the job. The “third year breakout” WR and the “sit
for two seasons” QB no longer exist. Sometimes, though,
it just takes a bit longer than expected. Dalton has always been
a competent passer that has shown flashes of brilliance and moments
of incompetence. After his third NFL season in 2013, it looked
like Dalton was ascending to the upper echelon of the QB totem
pole. In 2014, it appeared as if he’d regressed significantly.
Now, in 2015, Dalton has stormed out of the gate and is currently
the No.2 fantasy QB behind only Angry Tom Brady. The main difference
between this version of Dalton and previous versions? Turnovers.
From his rookie year in 2011 through 2014, Dalton averaged a hair
under an interception per game. In 2015, Dalton has thrown just
two picks through five games – on pace to finish the season
with single digit interceptions.
Analysts and fantasy owners were justifiably skeptical of Dalton
for a while until he dismantled the vaunted Legion of Boom to
overcome a 17-point 4th quarter deficit. The Bengals and Dalton
are for real. Last week, Dalton went back to what worked the first
two weeks, Tyler Eifert, finding him 8 times on 12 targets for
90 yards and 2 scores. He also hit up A.J. Green 6 times for 78
yards. Dalton even chipped in with a Brady-like QB sneak for a
rushing TD. This week, he travels to Buffalo to take on a Bills
defense that has been inconsistent through the first five weeks.
They contained Andrew Luck week 1, but since then, they’ve
handled lesser QBs (Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota), while struggling
mightily with better QBs (Eli Manning, Tom Brady). Dalton is going
to give them trouble. He is a surefire QB1 and at this point,
I’m ready to declare him matchup proof. Fire up your Bengals
passing attack options at will.
Running Game Thoughts: If you take out Dalton’s 7 rush
attempts, what we have is Dalton throwing the ball up 44 times
compared to 23 carries for the Bengals’ “two”
main backs. I put “two” in quotes because anyone watching
the Bengals or even reading the box score knows there’s
only one back here, and it’s Giovani Bernard. Gio once again
led the backfield in rush attempts, taking 15 carries for 80 yards
while adding 5 catches for 21 yards on 8 targets in the passing
game. Jeremy Hill supporters will continue to cite game flow as
the primary concern, with the Bengals falling behind early. The
facts tell a different story. In Week 4, the Bengals dominated
the Chiefs through and through. The game was never in doubt and
the Bengals took the lead very early and never gave it up. Gio
out-carried Hill 13-9. The week before, it was 13-12. Most discouraging
is that in a convincing victory over the Chiefs, when the Bengals
were in clock killing mode in the 4th quarter, it was Gio and
not Hill tasked with the job. Hill’s day still looked fantastic
because he fell into the end zone three times. Hill will continue
to get goal line carries and have sporadic big fantasy days when
he scores. Just know that’s all he’s good for. I am
not saying to drop and ignore Hill because he still has the TD
upside and the TDs will come. He is a good bet for 12+ scores
on the season. I am just saying that he is not the RB1 everyone
drafted him as.
This week, expect Hill to get the “start” and for
Gio to dominate the touches yet again. The Bills completely shut
down the Titans run game last week, save for Mariota. They did
allow Antonio Andrews to fall into the end zone for a 1-yard score,
which is just the 2nd rushing TD they have allowed all season.
I believe in the Bengals are an elite NFL team and Super Bowl
contender. I think they will be able to score points in this game
and move the ball much easier than they did against Seattle, which
bodes well for Hill’s chances of being useful.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor’s performance last week
is the quintessential example of why he is an every week QB1.
He’s no Andy Dalton, but Taylor is just as matchup proof,
albeit for a different reason. In a game where the Bills could
do nothing through the air, with Taylor inaccurate and receivers
dropping passes and getting hurt, Taylor finally let loose on
the ground. He ran 8 times for 76 yards and an impressive 22-yard
score. He finished top 10 in fantasy QB scoring with just 10 completions.
How many QBs can do that? I’m not saying Taylor is a fantastic
passer, he just needs some talent to really be elite. When Chris
Hogan and Marquise Goodwin are your top two receivers, there’s
really not much anyone not named Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers can
do. Hopefully, the Bills get Sammy Watkins back this week. He’s
been out with a calf injury, but is trending towards playing and
has openly demanded more targets.
Taylor made the most of a bad situation and willed his team to
a gritty win against a better than expected Titans defense. Now
Taylor (knee) may be forced to watch as EJ Manuel faces off against
a very mediocre Bengals defense. Despite spraining his MCL last
week, Taylor did manage to finish the game and has gotten in limited
practices Wednesday and Thursday. Rex Ryan said a decision on
Taylor’s status will likely come Friday, but the reality
is we won’t really know if he can play until Sunday morning.
Manuel appeared in 15 games over the past two seasons and looked
nothing like an NFL caliber passer. He boasts a career completion
percentage of 58.6% and has thrown 16 TDs and 12 interceptions.
If Manuel is forced to start, the Bengals are going to eat him
alive. Regardless of who starts, the Bills will once again look
to limit his pass attempts, but Manuel is far less of a runner
than Taylor and will struggle mightily in the complete absence
of a running game. If Taylor plays, the game will remain competitive
with Buffalo allowing opponents to complete 69% of their passes,
which is in line with Taylor’s completion percentage. It
is likely his mobility will be limited, which takes away a chunk
of his appeal. At the very least, I think he can keep the Bengals
competitive and put up QB2 numbers. However, with Manuel at the
controls, I think this score line will look very crooked at the
end.
Running Game Thoughts: The new season of The Walking Dead premiered
last Sunday night, but the preview occurred at 1:00 pm. The Bills
entered last week’s game without LeSean McCoy and Karlos
Williams, leaving Boobie Dixon, Cierre Wood, and fresh off the
street Boom Herron to handle carries. Unfortunately for the Bills,
only Dixon and Herron made it through this episode. Wood saw just
two carries for three yards before his season ended with an ACL
tear. Dixon and Herron combined for 47 yards on 16 carries. McCoy
has gotten in limited practices this week and is trending in the
right direction. However, he has been adamant that he will not
return until he is 100% healthy. At this point, I would not count
on him to play. Shady’s primary backup, Karlos Williams,
is almost certainly not going to play as he struggles to make
it through the league’s concussion protocol. This backfield
remains a situation to avoid.
If he plays, expect Tyrod Taylor to once again lead the Bills
in rushing against a Bengals defense that has been very generous
to opposing backs this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and
six rushes of 20+ yards. Last week, with Beast Mode on the shelf,
undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls torched the Bengals for 169 yards
on 23 carries. Rawls is actually talented. The same cannot be
said for Dixon and Herron. Unless Shady feels up to playing, this
matchup will be wasted for the Bills and fantasy owners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to figure out how the Redskins
hung with the Falcons last week. Cousins did not play well, throwing
for 219 yards and 2 interceptions with just 1 TD. DeSean Jackson
missed yet another game and while he is trending the right direction,
I still think he’s one week away from a return. Rookie Jamison
Crowder led the Redskins in receiving, catching all 8 of his targets
for 87 yards. Cousins now has more interceptions than TDs on the
season (6-5) and should remain on your waiver wire.
This week he has a brutal matchup against one of the best defenses
in the league. The Jets sport the 2nd best pass defense in terms
of yards allowed at just 185.5 per game and opposing QBs have
a league low 62.3 QB rating against the Jets. The defense as a
whole is allowing just 13.8 points per game. That’s absolutely
incredible. Assuming DJax sits another week, Garcon will likely
see a heavy dose of Darrelle Revis, which does not bode well for
his prospects this week. In fact, the entire Redskins passing
offense should be avoided, if possible.
Running Game Thoughts: Running game? What running game? The Redskins
top two backs combined for 35 yards on 19 carries. To say that
Alfred Morris and Matt Jones were ineffective would be putting
it kindly. Some of the blame is alleviated based on the fact that
Atlanta has the No.1 run defense in terms of yards allowed per
game (78.4), but they do allow 3.9 yards per carry, which is around
league average. It is also substantially better than what Morris
and Jones accomplished last week. Chris Thompson was once again
the Redskins’ best back, taking his three carries for 15
yards and hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 33 yards. He is not going
to fill up the stat sheet, but he’s a safe bet to not get
you a zero.
The Jets’ run defense is no slouch either. They allow 3.8
yards per carry to opposing backs, but perhaps most fantasy relevant,
they do not allow scores. The Jets have allowed just one TD on
the ground this season. They have also allowed only one rush of
over 20 yards. Opposing RBs can survive on volume, but will likely
be ineffective. To make matters worse, Matt Jones left last week’s
game with a sprained toe. He is currently day to day and should
not be anywhere near your lineup this week as he’s in a
three-way timeshare, facing a top notch defense, and toe injuries
are notoriously tricky to play through and especially tough on
running backs. Look for Morris to receive his biggest workload
since Week 1 but don’t look too far past the line of scrimmage
for where he ends up on most of his carries. Expect Thompson to
lead this backfield in fantasy points unless a pass interference
call puts the ball at the 1 and Morris falls into the end zone.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jets didn’t play last week and
although early byes are usually bad for teams, this one came at
a convenient time as both Chris Ivory and Eric Decker have been
banged up. Fresh off a 14-day hiatus, expect Decker to be 100%
healthy for a matchup with one of the league’s most surprising
defenses. The Redskins allow opposing passers to complete 60.1%
of their passes and throw for 216.4 yards per game. On the season,
Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 231 yards per game and has thrown
7 TDs versus 6 INTs.
In what is likely to be an ugly, low scoring affair, don’t
expect Fitzy to eclipse 30 pass attempts as the Jets look to control
the game on the ground. However, he has proven that he can support
both Brandon Marshall and Decker even in limited pass attempts.
Marshall has eclipsed 100 yards receiving or scored in every game
this season. He has had at least six catches in each game as well.
Decker’s catch and target total hasn’t been nearly
as consistent, but in the three games he’s played, he has
exactly one TD in each of them. That type of production is unlikely
to persist, but it serves to show he’s a key cog in the
Jets passing attack. Rookie Devin Smith has played the last two
games and will likely unseat Quincy Enunwa as the third receiver
in this offense once he gets fully acclimated. He has no fantasy
relevance though as this offense cannot support a third receiver.
He is merely a name to keep in the back of your mind should Decker
or Marshall find themselves on an injury cart.
Running Game Thoughts: The decision to hold Chris Ivory out of
their Week 3 matchup after declaring him active was frustrating
for fantasy owners, but clearly a boon for Ivory’s overall
health and performance. Ivory was an absolute monster across the
pond in Week 4, having his way with the Dolphins’ underperforming
front four to the tune of 166 yards on 29 carries. With two weeks
to rest up, Ivory will show no signs of his previously ailing
quad or groin as he looks to continue his success against a Redskins
defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Those numbers are a bit misleading as they indicate the Redskins
run defense isn’t that good. Prior to last week, it was
one of the best. What changed? They went face to face with the
greatest running back in NFL history, Devonta Freeman. If you
take away his 153 yards on 27 carries, you’re left with
a defense that is much more imposing. Now, of course, Freeman
did rush for those 153 yards last week, but let’s not compare
pedestrian Ivory to legendary Freeman. The bottom line is that
the Redskins have a solid run defense, but not one that’s
impenetrable. The Jets are going to feed Ivory early and often.
Expect 20-plus carries in a grind-it-out affair.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The day hath finally come when Eli is officially
better than Peyton. Eli Manning threw for an absurd 441 yards
last week and 3 TDs. He looked fantastic for about 90% of this
game. His lone interception was a terrible decision that turned
a sure 3 points into zero. He should’ve thrown a second,
ultimately game losing interception on what was the game winning
drive, but it was dropped. The younger Manning now has a 5-1 TD-INT
ratio to start the season, easily the best of his career. The
momentary lapses in judgment notwithstanding, Eli is playing at
a truly elite level for the first time in his career. The game
winning drive last week was especially impressive because he did
it without Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham. Larry Donnell’s
game winning grab was a thing of beauty and came with a high degree
of difficulty. Everyone in this passing attack got theirs last
week as Manning threw it up 54 times. That number is ridiculously
high and unlikely to happen often, but I must say it is refreshing
to see the Giants coming to terms with the fact that they need
to be a pass-first offense.
Beckham had a huge game, reeling in 7 passes for 121 yards and
a TD. He led the team with 11 targets. He was in and out of last
week’s contest with a hamstring injury, which curtailed
what could have been his first truly massive performance of 2015.
He believes it’s minor and I believe he will play on Monday,
but whenever a player with a history of hamstring injuries comes
down with another one, there’s cause for concern. Dwayne
Harris was also heavily involved, seeing 8 targets and catching
6 for 72 yards. He’ll be in for an increased workload if
Randle or Beckham can’t go Monday. The Eagles have given
up the 7th most passing yards per game and have allowed the 7th
most fantasy points to opposing QBs. I wouldn’t call this
an easy matchup for Manning and I do envision him throwing a pick
or two, but he should be able to exceed the average QB this week.
Running Game Thoughts: I feel like you have to be tired of my
weekly routine where I bash Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams
and sing the praises of Shane Vereen. With that being said, let’s
do it again! I understand that someone has to get the ball other
than Vereen. It should be Jennings over Williams as it was last
week. Jennings took 11 carries for 46 yards, which raised his
yards per carry up to 3.4. At minimum, every Jennings carry spared
us the pain of having to watch Williams. I think I know what Andre
Williams is going to be for Halloween…a professional running
back! He was awful last week, but mercifully saw just 3 carries,
which he turned into 0 yards. Then, we have Shane Vereen; the
man who should be touching the ball far more than he has been.
I really want to think the Giants used him against the 49ers because
he is by far their most talented back and most talented offensive
player behind Beckham, but we can’t ignore the fact that
his usage may be linked to the Giants’ receiver injury problems.
Vereen sees just 5 carries per game, but does average 4 yards
per carry. Where he does most of his damage is in the receiving
game. After being ignored for the past two weeks for reasons that
undoubtedly defy logic, Vereen caught all 8 of his targets for
86 yards and his first TD of the season. Maybe, just maybe, his
snap and touch count will continue to increase.
The Eagles allow just 3.5 yards per carry and have allowed just
1 rushing TD all season. Jennings and Williams will go nowhere
and the Giants would serve themselves well to utilize the short
passing game in lieu of a sustained ground attack in a game that
figures to be high scoring.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has not figured it out just
yet, but he’s getting there. He still makes reckless throws
and turns it over too much, but that’s not a big deal in
the fantasy world when he’s throwing for 333 yards and 2
TDs to go along with the 2 picks. Bradford’s last two starts
have been steps in the right direction. The only problem for fantasy
owners is it hasn’t yet benefitted Jordan Matthews, who
despite continuing to see the most targets (second most last week),
can’t put together a big game. JMatt saw 7 targets, corralling
5 for 44 yards. Fret not, however, because he was once again inches
away from WR1 numbers, dropping an easy TD (which ultimately would’ve
been called back anyway) and getting taken down at the 3-yard
line after a nice catch and run. Stay the course Matthews owners.
Josh Huff and Brent Celek were the ones to find the end zone
last week, which does nothing for fantasy owners. Huff is worth
monitoring with Nelson Agholor already ineffective and now dealing
with ankle injury. Riley Cooper inexplicably saw 8 targets and
caught just three because, well, he’s Riley Cooper. If there
ever was a week for Matthews to get on track, it’s this
one against a laughably bad Giants defense. How bad is this Giants
pass defense? Well, they just managed to make Colin Kaepernick
look like a respectable NFL passer which is a tall task for any
defense. Kaepernick completed 65% of his passes for 262 yards,
2 TDs, and no interceptions. Bradford has not been great, but
he is better than Kaepernick. With the Eagles offense beginning
to resemble the team we saw in the preseason and finally eclipsing
70 plays run, this is a prime opportunity for Chip Kelly to make
a statement.
Running Game Thoughts: Congratulations to the Eagles for finally
running the ball effectively - 20 carries for 83 yards for Demarco
Murray, 8 carries for 73 yards for Ryan Mathews and a TD for each.
Even Darren Sproles handled 5 carries for 27 yards. Murray finally
had the fantasy day everyone dreamed of, adding 7 catches for
37 yards. Hopefully for investors in this running offense, they
have turned the corner.
It looks the Giants may have turned a corner as well, but not
a good one. For weeks I refused to admit this Giants run defense
was legitimate. Last week I began to finally give in. How did
they respond? They let Carlos Hyde rip off 93 yards on 21 carries.
It was an especially poor performance from the Giants and one
that is hard to get a read on. The Eagles are going to try and
run the ball, but so far we’ve really seen just one quality
performance from the Eagles running game and one poor performance
from the Giants run defense. Both of those came last week, which
creates some recency bias when trying to figure out what to make
of it. I’m inclined to revert back to my original thoughts
regarding the Giants defense. As for the Eagles offense, I’m
still not sold. Maybe this is the week they finally sell me. Two
quality performances in a row would go a long way to establishing
legitimacy.
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