Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco and the passing game performed
well for the second consecutive week, but the Ravens fell to 0-3
for the first time in franchise history. Flacco has thrown for
863 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through three
games despite playing with an uninspiring cast of skill position
players. With the off-season defection of wide receiver Torrey
Smith and his supposed replacement rookie Breshad Perriman on
the shelf with a leg injury, the Ravens are perilously thin at
the pass catcher position. Veteran Steve Smith, who at 36 years
of age announced that he will retire at season’s end, is
the only proven weapon at Flacco’s disposal. Smith had a
remarkable game for a receiver of any age catching 13 passes for
186 yards and 2 touchdowns including a 50-yard highlight reel
score. He is off to another fast start, and this time he’s
practically the only show in town. Second year tight end Crockett
Gillmore qualifies as the second most dependable target in the
passing game but left last week’s game with an apparent
calf injury giving rookie tight end Maxx Williams the spotlight.
Gillmore is expected to miss tonight’s game.
The young Steelers’ secondary has been a little better than
advertised through three weeks allowing 255.3 passing yards per
game with 6 touchdowns and 1interception, but have only faced
one top quarterback in Tom Brady, followed by Colin Kaepernick
and Nick Foles in subsequent weeks. They haven’t given up
a ton of big plays, but they did allow Tom Brady to pick them
apart using a short passing game before holding the subpar Niners
and Rams passing offenses in check. This contest could get ugly
however, on a short week, against a desperate Ravens team that
will come out firing.
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens running game has been stuck
in mud thus far as veteran Justin Forsett has not looked nearly
as good as he did during his breakout campaign of 2014. Forsett
is averaging a mere 3.2 yards per carry and has not found the
endzone. Second year back Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen
are not faring much better averaging 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry,
respectively. Forsett shed his journeyman status last season to
become a star runner, but the soon to be 30-year-old was stretched
as a workhorse last season and will likely start giving way to
the young ball carriers if things don’t pick up for him
soon. Ideally, Trestman should find a way to start using Forsett
more in the passing game in order to utilize his speed and shiftiness
in space, especially in light of the Ravens lack of passing game
options.
The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far, allowing
only 87.3 yards per game, and has not allowed a rushing touchdown.
Inside linebacker Ryan Shazier missed last week’s game with
a shoulder injury and could miss this important NFC North contest
as well. If he should miss the game the Ravens may finally be
able to get their running game on track, but it won’t come
easy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh passing game took a tremendous
hit when Ben Roethlisberger sprained his MCL during last week’s
game in St. Louis. Veteran Michael Vick stepped in and the offense
was not effective at all. Vick has never been an accurate passer
so it may be difficult for him to take advantage of Antonio Brown’s
stellar route running and quickness. Vick looked like a shell
of himself last season with the Jets and hasn’t been very
good since 2011. At 35 years old, he no longer has the elite speed
and his body cannot take the open field hits he’s bound
to take when he tries to take off at the first sign of trouble.
This presents another issue for the Steelers as their passing
offense thrives when Roethlisberger buys time and finds open receivers
downfield for big plays. Vick will simply tuck the ball and attempt
to run when pressured. The Steelers will need the offensive line
to give Vick some time in the pocket to take what the defense
gives him.
Baltimore’s pass defense shut down Peyton Manning and the
Broncos during Week 1 but were lit up by Derek Carr and Andy Dalton
in consecutive weeks since. The loss of Terrell Suggs in Week
1 was a major blow to the Baltimore’s pass rush, and the
team’s corners have been stretched as a result. The Ravens
are allowing 294.7 passing yards per game and have allowed 6 passing
touchdowns. This is a favorable matchup for the Steelers, so if
Michael Vick struggles this week, things will not bode well for
the team’s immediate future without Big Ben.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell returned to action last
week following a two-game suspension to start the season and did
not miss a beat rushing for 62 yards and a touchdown while also
catching 7 balls for 70 yards. The team will need to rely more
on the running attack with Roethlisberger sidelined which could
mean that veteran D’Angelo Williams gets mixed back in after
performing admirably while Bell was out, but being a nonfactor
last week. There will be less running room now that the threat
of the pass will be lessened but the volume should increase. Bell
is a dynamic back that has quick feet and can make things happen
even when the blocking breaks down. The team will need him now
more than ever.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the league’s best
despite the loss of Haloti Ngata during the offseason. Through
three weeks they are allowing only 84 rushing yards per game with
two rushing scores. They will need another strong performance
from this unit, with the hopes of making the Steelers’ offense
reliant on Vick, as he’s been a turnover machine in recent
seasons.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Celebrations were in order for the Chiefs
when Jeremy Maclin caught a third quarter touchdown pass from
Alex Smith ending one of the more embarrassing streaks in NFL
history. It was December 8, 2013, or 659 days ago, the last time
a wide receiver caught a ball for a touchdown in a game that meant
something for the Chiefs. Unfortunately Alex Smith could not keep
pace with the quarterback that was selected 23 spots after him
in the 2005 NFL draft. The contrast between Smith and Aaron Rodgers
was on full display last Monday night and while Smith played decently,
his weak arm and conservative style was made even more evident
by Rodgers video game like passing numbers. Smith wasn’t
aggressive and wasn’t moving the ball well until garbage
time - throwing against a prevent defense during the second half.
Travis Kelce continues to be his favorite target and the big tight
end is a dangerous weapon down the seams. Running back Jamaal
Charles and Kelce see the bulk of Smith’s targets despite
the fact that the team paid Maclin big money to reunite with his
former coach during the offseason. Until that changes, Maclin
will be a low end WR2 at best most weeks.
On the season the Bengals are allowing 256 passing yards per game
and have given up 6 passing touchdowns while grabbing 3 interceptions.
This aggressive unit has already recorded 6 sacks on the season
and could create issues for Alex Smith who was sacked seven times
alone last week in Green Bay.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chiefs
offense has been and will continue to be built around the running
game, and they have one of the best running backs in the league
in Jamaal Charles. Charles scored three times last week even though
the Chiefs offense was held mostly in check. Charles will continue
to fill up the stat sheet week in and week out as he’s used
in the passing game and in the redzone and doesn’t spend
much time on the sidelines in favor of Knile Davis, who is a capable
runner as well.
The Bengals have held their two opponents to an average of 76.7
rushing yards per game and have not allowed a rushing touchdown
thus far. The Chiefs will be locked into a battle of strength
on strength and must win the line of scrimmage if they wish to
avoid a 1-3 start to the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is playing well through three
weeks, having his full complement of pass catchers healthy. Star
wide receiver A.J. Green was all he needed last week however,
as Green caught 10 balls for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin
Jones who missed the 2014 season also contributed with a 5-94-1
stat-line and is clearly ahead of Mohammad Sanu for the WR2 slot.
Tight end Tyler Eifert who also missed nearly all of the 2014
season and who starred for the team during the first two games
was held without a catch but did have a potential touchdown reception
overturned on a bad call. He has proven to be a valuable weapon
to the Red Rifle and shouldn’t see too many catchless games
going forward. The Bengals have a lot of options in the passing
game making Dalton a QB1 for fantasy purposes against all but
the toughest defenses.
The Chiefs’ pass defense was embarrassed on Monday night.
While Andy Dalton is no Aaron Rodgers he’ll be facing a
banged up unit that is in serious trouble. The Chiefs will welcome
back DB Sean Smith this week but lost second-year DB Phillip Gaines
to a knee injury. On the season the Chiefs have allowed 861 passing
yards and 10 touchdowns through three weeks.
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill
looked like one of the best running backs in the league during
the final nine games of his rookie season, but fumbles and game
flow have kept him quiet the last two weeks as the team turned
to Giovani Bernard to lead the Bengals in backfield touches. The
talk from the coaching staff is that Hill should see still a heavy
workload with Bernard being used as a change of pace and third
down back, but Bernard has proven he can handle a major workload
so Hill needs to find a way to hang onto the football in order
to keep him relevant in the gameplan. Fantasy owners of Hill will
also need to hope that the Bengals do not find themselves trailing
as well. Bernard is the preferred choice in the passing game so
when the team turns to a hurry-up style offense, Hill is out of
the game.
The stout Chiefs’ run defense will present a challenge to
either Cincinnati back. Kansas City has not allowed a rushing
touchdown on the season and is allowing only 94 yards per game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Little Derek Carr may be growing up before
our very eyes. Carr is coming off of his best two games as a professional
and has a chance to get Oakland to 3-1 for the first time since….hmmmm….well
in a long time. Carr has thrown for 665 yards with 5 touchdowns
and 1 interception in upset wins over Baltimore and Cleveland.
Rookie Amari Cooper and veteran Michael Crabtree have been terrific
outside targets for Carr, especially the rookie, but he has also
connected with unheralded slot wide receiver Seth Roberts for
scores the last two weeks. Oakland fans have been waiting a long
time for a franchise type quarterback and it’s looking like
that wait could be over.
The Bears’ defense has been surprisingly stingy in giving
up yards through the air allowing only 195.3 yards per game but
they haven’t been stingy in allowing teams into their endzone,
giving up 8 passing touchdowns through three weeks. The team dealt
aging but effective pass rusher Jared Allen to Carolina on Monday
and looks to be cleaning house a little in order to clear room
for John Fox and Vic Fangio players.
Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray has had a very solid start
to his first season as a feature back. Murray is averaging 4.8
yards per carry and has 248 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground
to go with his 11 receptions for 68 yards. Murray is 6’3”
and 230 pounds but surprisingly doesn’t run with a lot of
power as he fails to get low and thus loses some leverage on contact.
He does have good speed and athleticism for his size, which he
showed on a 54-yard run last week. Taiwan Jones who was at one
time converted to corner back before being returned to running
back has been getting the carries behind Murray but he only has
seven carries on the season as Murray has been used as a true
workhorse.
The Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses
in 2015 allowing 135.7 yards per game. Murray could be in for
another big game, especially if the Bears’ offense is as
bad as it was last week and Oakland looks to control the game
clock.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jimmy Clausen pulled off the impossible
last week - he made Bears’ fans look forward to the next
time Jay Cutler starts a game. Clausen completed only 9-of-17
passes for 63 yards. Clausen should be under center again this
week, as Cutler is expected to miss at least one more week with
a hamstring injury. At least Clausen will get his best wide receiver,
Alshon Jeffrey, back this week although he’s been limited
in practices so it’s not a given. Martellus Bennett was
targeted 6 times last week as Clausen made all of his throws underneath
and could see heavy targets again. It should also be noted that
Oakland has allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends in only three games
this season. Otherwise, this is likely a situation for fantasy
owners to avoid.
The level of competition goes way down for Clausen this week,
as the Raiders secondary has been lit up for 323 yards per game
so far this season.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
continues to put up a workman like effort while playing for a
terrible Bears team. He has 276 yards rushing with a touchdown
and 9 receptions for 69 yards on the season. Rumors are swirling
that at 29 years old and in the last year of his contract, Forte
could be one of the next veterans to be traded away as the new
regime puts their stamp on the team. While the move would make
some sense, the Bears fans could revolt if the team moves one
of the few players worth watching on its roster, unless the haul
they get back is substantial. As for this week, Forte is still
on the team and like last week the gameplan should be to hide
Clausen’s “abilities” by running Forte early
and often. Rookie Jeremy Langford and veteran Jacquizz Rodgers
could be mixed in as well.
The Raiders shouldn’t provide much resistance to the Bears’
ball control plan. During the season’s first two weeks they
allowed 236 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground before stepping
up to keep the Browns in check during Week 3.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The surprise rise to fantasy stardom from
Travis Benjamin continued in Week 3 as the fourth-year wide receiver
caught his fourth touchdown of the season on four receptions for
45 yards against the Raiders. Benjamin is now the No. 4 wide receiver
in all of fantasy football in standard scoring leagues and has
clearly been one of the breakout stars. While Week 3 was his lowest
scoring game thus far, it might have actually been the most interesting
of his three contests as Benjamin went from two and four targets
in Weeks 1 and 2 to a noticeably higher 10 targets in Week 3.
This tells us that not only is Benjamin getting the attention
from fantasy owners, but he is now also getting the attention
from the Browns coaching staff and quarterback Josh McCown. McCown,
who took back the starting role from Johnny Manziel after missing
a game due to a concussion, threw for an impressive 341 yards
and two touchdowns with one interception in the Raiders’
victory over the Browns which further solidified him as the starting
quarterback in Cleveland. Another player who broke out in Week
3 was tight end Gary Barnidge who caught six passes for 105 yards
and a touchdown. Barnidge had only made four catches for 55 yards
in the Browns’ first two games and his breakout performance
came against the Raiders who have given up the most fantasy points
per game in the league to opposing tight ends so far this season,
but it’s still worth noting that Barnidge has clearly established
himself as the Browns’ tight end and will almost certainly
see more targets going forward.
The Week 4 matchup for Cleveland will be quite a bit tougher
for the Browns passing game as they head across the country to
face a Chargers defense that is coming off of an impressive game
where they held Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to just
121 passing yards and no touchdowns with an interception. To make
matters worse for Benjamin owners, the Chargers have allowed just
one pass of 40-or-more yards so far this season, so the likelihood
of another long touchdown reception might be lower in this game
than in his previous three. One positive note, the Chargers have
not been getting after the quarterback. Sack numbers alone don’t
always tell the story, but the entire Chargers defense combined
has just one sack so far this season, which could mean more time
in the pocket for McCown to find the open man. Be careful with
McCown in daily formats, though, as the leash may be shorter on
him than with other quarterbacks. Manziel waits in the wings and
could step in at any time if the team is struggling to put points
on the board.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland running back job was one
of the biggest question marks in fantasy football heading into
the 2015 season and while the situation seems to be clearer now
after three weeks than it was in the preseason, the production
hasn’t exactly been spectacular. Second-year running back
Isaiah Crowell has led all Browns ball carriers in each of the
teams’ first three games, taking a total of 37 carries to
rookie Duke Johnson’s 23. While Crowell’s 3.5 yards
per carry average is nothing to be overly excited about, it has
actually been quite a bit better than Johnson’s sub-3.0
average. Neither player is exactly running away with this job
and while the presumption is that Johnson is a better pass catcher,
he has only made six catches to Crowell’s two catches through
three games. What was most disappointing regarding this backfield
is that this duo combined for just 39 yards on the ground this
past week in a fairly competitive game against the Raiders. It’s
true that the Browns trailed throughout the entire contest, but
a lot of that came because they were simply unable to get a running
game going.
If Crowell and Johnson were unable to do much against a porous
Oakland defense, it’s hard to believe that they’re
suddenly going to light the fantasy world on fire in any other
game, but Week 4 may very well be their opportunity to do so.
The Chargers have been atrocious against opposing running games
so far this season, conceding the second-most fantasy points to
the position thus far in standard scoring formats. They’ve
now given up back-to-back games of 150-plus rushing yards to the
Vikings and Bengals and their run defense appears to be a major
problem. If the Browns hope to be competitive in this game, they
will need to get their running game established early. Look for
Crowell to get the ball plenty in this one with Johnson potentially
getting more snaps in the second half if the Browns are down by
multiple scores. If they can’t get things going this week,
though, it might be time to look elsewhere for your fantasy running
back production.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Either Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen
is fantasy football’s version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
or the Chargers are intentionally messing with us at this point.
Allen frustrated many fantasy owners who benched him when he made
a whopping 15 receptions for 166 yards in Week 1, only to frustrate
us again by dropping a two-catch, 16-yard game (with a fumble)
on us in Week 2. Week 3 was back to his “Dr. Jekyll”
form when he caught 12 passes for 133 yards and his first two
touchdowns of the season. Allen’s 25-point day was the biggest
fantasy performance of his young career and went a long way to
proving that he is by far the most important player in this San
Diego passing game. Allen’s 39 total targets rank him tied
for fourth-most in the entire league and he should continue to
get enough opportunities to make him an every-week fantasy starter.
The other Charger who has been intriguing for fantasy owners has
been Stevie Johnson who was a bit quiet this past week against
the Vikings when he made just three catches for 46 yards, but
he did catch a touchdown in each of the Chargers’ first
two contests and has currently sits second on the team in both
receptions (14) and receiving yards (173). Johnson should remain
an important player in the Chargers’ aerial attack, playing
out of the slot, at least for one more week until tight end Antonio
Gates returns from his suspension.
The tight end position in San Diego remains one to watch as Ladarius
Green missed Week 3 due to a concussion, but he is practicing
again and is expected to play this weekend as the Chargers host
the Browns. Cleveland has been excellent against opposing tight
ends in two of their games, holding the Jets and Raiders tight
ends to just one total catch for eight yards in those games. However,
neither the Jets or Raiders are particularly talent-rich at the
tight end position, so perhaps a more telling number is the Week
2 game when the Browns gave up 10 catches for 139 yards and a
touchdown to the Delanie Walker-less Titans. Either way, this
is a good matchup for quarterback Philip Rivers as the Browns
have given up two touchdown passes to each opposing quarterbackthey’ve
faced this season - that list includes the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr. With Rivers being by far the most
experienced and arguably still the most talented of that bunch,
there’s a real opportunity here for Rivers to finish as
a QB1 this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Following a monster Week 1 where he touched
the ball 16 times for 62 yards and two touchdowns, San Diego running
back Danny Woodhead has fallen back into the dreaded territory
of being a borderline fantasy starter in non-PPR formats. In PPR
leagues, however, Woodhead’s value continues to be solid
as he has now made 13 receptions in three games, putting him on
pace to approach 70 catches this season. Unfortunately for him,
he seems to be behind rookie Melvin Gordon on the running back
pecking order as Gordon has now touched the ball 48 times this
season to Woodhead’s 37. Of course, it’s worth noting
that Woodhead has been on the field more than Gordon in every
game so far this season, but that also has a lot to do with the
Chargers needing to pass the ball quite a bit thus far. Still,
Gordon will likely continue to be the player who actually touches
the ball more and for fantasy purposes, that’s what we really
care about.
The Chargers backs have a great matchup this week as they will
be up against a Cleveland defense that just got abused at home
for 156 yards by the Raiders’ running backs after giving
up more than 150 on the ground to the Jets in Week 1. Their Browns’
quality performance against the run so far this season came in
Week 2 when they held the Titans backs to just 55 yards on 16
carries. However, the Titans haven’t exactly been great
at running the ball so far this season, so certainly the Chargers
won’t be deterred by that number. Look for San Diego to
get the running game going, primarily on the back of Gordon who
could see the highest carry total of his young career, particularly
if the Chargers get out to an early lead. Woodhead remains a quality
option in PPR formats, but this might be a good opportunity to
bench him in standard scoring leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Week 3 should have been a great matchup
for Nick Foles and the St. Louis offense, but it didn’t
turn out that way. The Rams were home against a struggling Pittsburgh
defense that had been torched through the air through the first
two weeks of the season, but Foles couldn’t even hit 200
yards in the passing game with no touchdowns and an interception.
Foles has regressed in fantasy points in each game so far this
season and the St. Louis offense as a whole is looking less and
less explosive. Part of that has to be due to the reality that
the team doesn’t have any high-quality receiving options.
The team’s target leader, Kenny Britt, leads the team with
11 receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown, but backup tight
end Lance Kendricks is the only other player who has caught a
touchdown so far this season.
If the Rams couldn’t get their passing game working against
a weak Pittsburgh defense, it would be extremely surprising if
they suddenly turned it around here in Week 4 as they go up against
a Cardinals defense that has been excellent against opposing quarterbacks.
They did get beat up by Drew Brees in Week 1, but the Cardinals
held Jay Cutler and the Bears to just 241 yards and a touchdown
in Week 2 before humiliating Colin Kaepernick this past week.
Kaepernick had the worst game of his career in Week 3 when the
Cardinals intercepted him four times, including two pick-sixes,
and held him to just 67 yards through the air. While Kaepernick
saved himself from a negative fantasy point day with his legs,
don’t look for Foles to do the same. The four-interception
day was certainly on the high end of what this defense is capable
of, but this is a good matchup for the Arizona defense and one
that should make them one of the most highly-owned units in daily
formats.
Running Game Thoughts: The highly-anticipated debut of running
back Todd Gurley has came and went without much to speak of as
the rookie rushed for just nine yards on six carries while adding
one reception for five yards. Meanwhile second-year back Tre Mason
was equally unimpressive as he rushed for just 16 yards on nine
carries with a 15-yard catch. The Pittsburgh defense they faced
is certainly better against the run than they are the pass, but
this was still a disappointing effort for the Rams’ backs
and doesn’t bode well for their chances going forward. Mason
was on the field for about 50 percent of the Rams’ snaps
while Gurley and Benny Cunningham split the remaining snaps evenly,
but the expectations are that Gurley will continue to get more
snaps as he becomes more accustomed with the St. Louis offense.
It could be tough for Gurley, Mason or Cunningham to find much
room this week, however, as they go up against an Arizona defense
that has been great at shutting down the run so far this season.
Through three games, the Cardinals have conceded just 194 rushing
yards and one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs. One
interesting note is that they have actually given up more receiving
yards (213) to opposing running backs than they have rushing yards.
That likely has a lot to do with game flow as the Cardinals have
been dominating their opponents, leading to more passing situations
for the opposing offenses. This could bode well for Cunningham,
the team’s primary passing downs back, and he may be a decent
low-priced sleeper option in daily formats. Gurley and Mason may
struggle to get things going, however, and it’s tough to
know which one of them will get more touches in this game, which
makes both of them a risky option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There may not be a hotter team in the NFL
right now than the Arizona Cardinals. Much of that has been because
of excellent play by their defense, but there’s no question
that the offense, led by veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, has
been one of the most explosive in the league. Palmer currently
sits fifth in the league in fantasy points at the quarterback
position. Along with Palmer, fellow veteran Larry Fitzgerald is
also enjoying a career resurgence in 2015. Fitzgerald is second
in scoring at the wide receiver position and he has now scored
an impressive five touchdowns over just his past two games. While
it’s hard to imagine that Fitzgerald will remain quite this
dominant, there is nothing on game film that tells us that his
early season success has been a fluke. He looks like he’s
in his prime again and he may very well finish as a WR1. Meanwhile,
second-year receiver John Brown has been a bit disappointing from
a fantasy perspective as he has made just 12 catches through his
first three games. He does have a touchdown and he has 153 yards
on those 12 catches, but that won’t go a long way toward
making fantasy owners confident enough to put him in their lineups.
The team’s third option, Michael Floyd, remains an afterthought
in the offense as he has made just two receptions thus far in
2015 and has been rumored in numerous trade scenarios.
Arizona’s offense has had some great matchups to start
the season which does tell us that there may be a natural regression
upcoming, but Week 4 should still be a solid opportunity for a
nice fantasy day for Palmer and the Cardinals passing game. It’s
true that the Rams have conceded the third-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, but their first two
opponents – Seattle and Washington – aren’t
exactly high-powered passing games, and Pittsburgh lost Ben Roethlisberger
midway through their Week 3 game against the Rams. In Week 4,
the Rams will have to try to contain an offense that has looked
as good as any. Don’t be overly concerned about the St.
Louis defense as Arizona should continue to put up plenty of passing
yards in this contest.
Running Game Thoughts: When Andre Ellington was knocked out in
Week 1, the Cardinals were forced to turn to veteran Chris Johnson
and rookie David Johnson to take over their running back duties.
The duo struggled through the first two games of the season, but
Chris Johnson’s Week 3 performance in a blowout win over
the 49ers reminded us that there may still be life left in those
legs. Johnson rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns while adding
a 40-yard reception. But now that the running game seems to be
finding its groove with the Johnsons, Ellington is now getting
back on the practice field. Head coach Bruce Arians reported that
Ellington is “50-50” to play this Sunday.
If Ellington does play, all three Cardinals running backs become
tough to trust. If he sits again, Chris Johnson may make for an
interesting play this week against a Rams defense that has been
exploited by opposing running games so far this season. The Rams
have given up over 500 total yards to opposing running backs,
which could mean a solid day from Chris Johnson and even a some
opportunities for David Johnson.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater
was one of the hottest late-round quarterback selections in fantasy
drafts this preseason, but he certainly has not done much to justify
the hype. Through three games, Bridgewater ranks 27th at his position
and he has thrown just one touchdown on the year. With Bridgewater’s
struggles, it’s no surprise that both of his top receivers,
Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, have also been relatively quiet.
Wallace leads the team with just 12 catches for 150 yards while
Johnson has been almost completely irrelevant with just six catches
for 46 yards. Neither Wallace nor Johnson is particularly intriguing
in fantasy leagues, at least until the offense proves that they
can do something through the air.
One would hope that the Vikings are putting together some schemes
to give Bridgewater better opportunities, but it might be tough
in Week 4 when the Vikings head to Denver to face the Broncos.
Denver has been extraordinary on defense and that doesn’t
look like it’ll be changing anytime soon. The Broncos have
held opposing quarterbacks to an unbelievable 4.3 fantasy points
per game on average – by far the fewest in the league –
through the first three games of the season. To make matters worse
for the Vikings, the Broncos have also already sacked opposing
quarterbacks 11 times this season, good for third-most in the
league. With Charles Johnson battling a rib injury, the Vikings
may need to look toward tight end Kyle Rudolph early and often
in this contest. He currently leads the team with 18 targets so
far this season and if there has been one position that the Broncos
have struggled a bit against, it has been tight ends. They’ve
already given up over 200 yards to the position on the year and
that could continue to rise this week against Rudolph.
Running Game Thoughts: We saw glimpses of “the old Adrian
Peterson” during Weeks 1 and 2, but it wasn’t until
a ridiculous, long touchdown run in Week 3 that we really knew
that “A.D.” was back. Peterson punished the Chargers
to the tune of 126 yards and two scores on the day and he has
already compiled an impressive 370 yards from scrimmage through
the first three games of the season. Peterson doesn’t look
like he’s skipped a beat despite his year away from the
game and he is now back to being arguably the top running back
in all of fantasy football.
There aren’t many running backs who are matchup-proof,
but Peterson is certainly one of them. Win, lose or draw, Peterson
is the focal point of the Vikings offense and it’s going
to be rare for him to not touch the ball at least 20 times per
game. The Broncos have been fairly good against opposing running
games so far this season as they held the Lions backs to 29 yards
on the ground in Week 3 and the Ravens’ backs to just 73
yards back in Week 1. They did, however, struggle when they went
up against another elite running back in Jamaal Charles. Charles
rushed for 125 yards against the Broncos and could have been the
MVP in a win if it weren’t for his late-game fumble that
ultimately cost them the game. Peterson has also had trouble holding
onto the ball early this season, but like Charles, he should touch
the ball enough to have a nice fantasy day even against this very
good Broncos defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s a year older and his body certainly
isn’t where it once was, but if Week 3 proved anything,
it’s that Peyton Manning can still be a valuable fantasy
football quarterback. Manning threw for 324 yards and two touchdowns,
with one interception, in a nice road win over the Lions. He didn’t
throw for a touchdown in Week 1, but he has now thrown for five
over his past two games. What’s been nice about the Denver
passing game from a fantasy standpoint is that Manning is almost
exclusively looking for his top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas
and Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas (38) and Sanders (35) both have more
than double the number of targets of the Broncos’ next most-targeted
receiver, Owen Daniels (16). No other Broncos wide receiver or
tight end has more than five targets so far this season. With
that knowledge, it’s easy to put both Thomas and Sanders
in your fantasy lineups with confidence. If the ball continues
to come their way at this pace, both players should be reliable
fantasy options on a weekly basis.
In Week 4, the Broncos passing game has a nice matchup against
a Vikings defense that just gave up a 300-yard, two-touchdown
day to Philip Rivers. They also gave up nearly 300 yards and a
pair of touchdowns to Matt Stafford in Week 2. It’s true
that they held Colin Kaepernick to just 165 yards and no touchdowns
in Week 1, but that was mostly due to their inability to slow
down Carlos Hyde. The Broncos will almost certainly try to establish
the running game against this bad Minnesota defense, but don’t
worry too much – there will be plenty of opportunities for
Manning and the passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: Denver running back C.J. Anderson has
been one of the most disappointing players in all of fantasy football
so far this season. A consensus first round fantasy draft pick,
Anderson has been held to just 74 yards on the ground on 32 carries
so far this season and has not yet scored a touchdown. To make
matters worse, Anderson has been dealing with a toe injury which
has limited his playing time. Backup Ronnie Hillman has substantially
outplayed Anderson, but has still been a bit disappointing in
his own right, rushing for just 88 yards on 28 carries. If there’s
one saving grace for Anderson owners, it’s that head coach
Gary Kubiak has made no comments regarding Anderson losing his
job, so there is still hope that he may turn things around.
If Anderson is going to get back to fantasy relevance, it needs
to happen this week against the Vikings. Minnesota showed in Week
1 that they were completely unprepared to take on a team that
was committed to running the ball. If Denver can get the ball
in Anderson’s hands 20 or more times, it’s very possible
that he will be able to approach the 100-yard mark for the first
time this season. Better yet, with the passing game looking like
it has a great matchup against the Vikings secondary, there could
be a handful of red zone carries for Anderson in this game. All
it takes is one touchdown to put a smile on fantasy owners’
faces and Anderson remains one of the most likely running backs
to get into the end zone on a week-to-week basis, despite the
fact that he is yet to do so this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Andrew Luck struggling, it’s
becoming increasingly evident that Green Bay quarterback and reigning
NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback who should have been
drafted first in fantasy drafts heading this season. Rodgers has
been ridiculously good, throwing for 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions
and 771 yards. All that without his top receiver from a season
ago, Jordy Nelson. With Nelson out, it has been Randall Cobb who
has taken over as the Packers’ top pass catcher, making
20 receptions for 245 yards and four touchdowns. But the real
story might be veteran receiver James Jones, who returned to the
Packers this preseason after being cut by the Raiders and Giants.
Jones has now caught 12 passes for 219 yards, but the important
part is that four of those 12 catches have gone for touchdowns.
That ratio is likely unsustainable and he wasn’t getting
targeted enough to be looked at as a consistent fantasy contributor,
but an injury to Davante Adams may have given Jones even more
value. Adams did avoid the dreaded high ankle sprain, but it sounds
likely that he will miss this week’s game against the 49ers,
which should lead to more opportunities for Jones and even rookie
Ty Montgomery who caught the first touchdown of his career after
Adams went out in Week 3.
There isn’t a matchup in the world that should make fantasy
owners of Aaron Rodgers worried and the 49ers certainly aren’t
one. San Francisco held Teddy Bridgewater in check in Week 1,
but has since been exposed in back-to-back games against Ben Roethlisberger
and Carson Palmer. Both quarterbacks went over the 300 yards and
they combined for five passing touchdowns with only one interception.
Rodgers is playing at an all-world level and with San Francisco
coming off of back-to-back blowout losses, this could be a recipe
for big time fantasy production.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy got off to a very slow start
to the 2014 season but still managed to finish as one of the premier
running backs in all of fantasy football. He may have to do that
again here in 2015 as an injury has kept him from being at his
best. Lacy suffered an ankle injury in the Packers’ Week
2 win over the Seahawks and was limited in Week 3 due to the same
injury, but was actually quite productive with the limited opportunities
he was given in that contest. Now listed as a full participant
in practice, Lacy appears likely to get his usual workload in
Week 4 with James Starks returning to his complementary role.
If Lacy is a full go, as we expect that he will be, he could
be in for an excellent bounceback game. The 49ers are in a terrible
rut and right now and they’ve been completely humiliated
by opposing running backs in back-to-back weeks. They shockingly
held Adrian Peterson in check in Week 1, but the 49ers gave up
a three-touchdown day to DeAngelo Williams in Week 2 followed
up by a 110-yard, two-touchdown day from Chris Johnson. With the
Packers’ passing game firing on all cylinders, it wouldn’t
be surprising to see the Packers jump out to an early lead. If
that happens, there could be a lot of Eddie Lacy in the second
half.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The good news is that it can’t get
much worse. The bad news is that fantasy owners who started Kaepernick
can’t go back and erase the humiliating performance that
he gave them in Week 3. Kaepernick threw a career-most four interceptions
and for just 67 yards. At one point during the loss to the Cardinals,
Kaepernick had just one more completion (5) than he did interceptions.
While Kaepernick did save what would have been a negative fantasy
point day by rushing for a touchdown and 46 yards on the ground,
it’s hard to imagine his confidence isn’t completely
shattered after that awful performance. Obviously his top receivers,
Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, haven’t done much this season.
Each player has a touchdown, but neither has even hit the 150
receiving yard mark this season. The 49ers have supposedly “simplified”
their playbook, but if what happened in Week 3 is any indication,
it might be time to go back to expanding the playbook a bit.
The 49ers passing game needs to redeem itself and with the Packers
likely to get out to a fairly substantial lead in this game, there
may be an opportunity for some garbage-time points in this game.
Kaepernick typically has a high floor because of his rushing totals
and if he can avoid throwing multiple interceptions, even a moderate
passing yardage game could at least make him a viable fantasy
option. It’d be hard to trust him after what he did in Week
3, but this isn’t the worst situation for fantasy production.
One player who fantasy owners might want to avoid, though, is
tight end Vernon Davis. Davis is a borderline fantasy option to
begin with, but the Packers have done a good job of keeping opposing
tight ends in check so far this season. Despite playing against
Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Martellus Bennett – three
of the premiere tight ends in the league – the Packers have
conceded a total of just 182 yards and one touchdown to the position
so far this season.
Running Game Thoughts: A monster Week 1 saw Carlos Hyde shoot
up the fantasy radar as he went off for 168 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately, in his past two games – both blowout 49ers
losses – Hyde was barely able to even crack half of that
yardage total and has not yet made a trip back to the end zone.
Nothing on film seems to indicate that Hyde is running the ball
worse, but his opportunities have been significantly less with
his team so far behind in games. Backup running back Reggie Bush
is expected to be back this week as well, which could lead to
less playing time for Hyde, particularly if the 49ers fall behind
and are forced to rely on their passing game.
Hyde owners will have to hope that the 49ers can stay in this
game long enough that their running back can at least touch the
ball 15 times because if he doesn’t, this could be another
ugly fantasy day. The Packers have held opposing running backs
to just 241 rushing yards through their first three games of the
season and they’ve played against the likes of Matt Forte,
Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles. While Hyde appears to be a
solid running back, it’d be hard to foresee a situation
where he goes off in this game, especially if the Packers do get
out to the lead that many expect them to. Hyde is still a must-start
for most fantasy owners, but temper your expectations.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s off to a fine pace in terms of
passing yardage at 271 yds/game, but Detroit quarterback Matt
Stafford has simply not been efficient with the football. The
former No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick has thrown for just five touchdowns
with five interceptions. Worst yet for fantasy owners of wide
receiver Calvin Johnson is that Stafford simply has not been able
to find his top receiver down the field. Johnson has made 20 catches
for 199 yards – enough for him to be the No. 26 fantasy
wide receiver in standard leagues – but he has only scored
one touchdown thus far. Fellow wide receiver Golden Tate has been
even more disappointing as he has caught just 15 passes for 161
yards and he has not yet scored a single touchdown.
It’s true that the Lions were held in check by a tough
Denver defense a week ago, but things aren’t going to get
any easier as the unit heads to the east coast to challenge the
defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have long
been one of the best secondaries in the league and the “Legion
of Boom” was finally reunited a week ago when safety Kam
Chancellor ended his holdout. The defense has conceded an average
of just 203 passing yards per game so far this season and they’ve
only given up three total passing touchdowns, two of which were
given up to Aaron Rodgers. This past week, the Seahawks embarrassed
the Bears when they held the Chicago passing game to just 63 yards.
While the Lions will certainly exceed that total, it would not
be surprising to see the Detroit passing game struggle a bit in
this game. They haven’t been particularly good in much easier
matchups so far this season, so a trip to Seattle won’t
likely cure what has been a less-than-stellar passing game. One
player to watch out for in this game is tight end Eric Ebron.
The Seahawks have struggled to contain opposing tight ends so
far this season and Ebron has been quietly productive, particularly
in the red zone. Don’t be surprised to see him score again
here in Week 4.
Running Game Thoughts: The preseason position battle between
running backs Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah was one of the hottest
fantasy topics heading into the season as Abdullah shot up draft
charts after a few very impressive run. Things only got more interesting
in Week 1 when Abdullah had a 94 total yard performance that included
an impressive, long touchdown run, but that’s about the
last time anyone has heard from the Detroit running game. Sure,
Abdullah caught a touchdown pass this past week against the Broncos
and yes, Bell rushed for a touchdown in the same game, but the
duo combined for just 29 rushing yards in the game. Sadly enough,
that was actually an improvement from the disappointing performance
they turned in against the Vikings in Week 2 when they combined
for a measly 11 rushing yards. Meanwhile, it has been third string
running back Theo Riddick who has been the most consistent player
in this backfield, particularly in PPR formats. Riddick has registered
just one carry on the year, but he has already made 15 receptions
on the season. Riddick is a classic example of a player whose
value changes drastically depending on your league’s format,
but there’s no question that he has carved out a role for
himself in this offense while the other two backs battle for the
role of “starter” in an unproductive running game.
Detroit’s running game has been ugly over the past two
weeks and things won’t be getting any easier as they head
to Seattle to play against a Seahawks defense that has conceded
the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far
this season. Seattle is one of just four teams who have not yet
allowed a running back to score a touchdown – whether on
the ground or through the air – against them so far this
season. That doesn’t bode well for Bell, who is currently
presumed to own the role as the Lions’ goaline back. With
Bell and Abdullah still splitting touches, it’s entirely
possible that neither player represents much value in a tough
matchup like this. Riddick, on the other hand, could be a great
fantasy asset in PPR leagues this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The fantasy stock of quarterback Russell
Wilson certainly went up when the Seahawks made the move to bring
in tight end Jimmy Graham this offseason, but through the first
two weeks of the season, the duo hadn’t exactly gotten off
to a hot start. They had only connected on seven passes and although
one went for a touchdown, it was certainly a disappointing start.
They seemed to get things going in Week 3, however, against a
weak Chicago defense when they connected on seven receptions for
83 yards and a touchdown. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse remain
important members of the passing game, but neither player represents
much upside in the grand scheme of things, so they are low-end
flex or WR3 options at best.
The Seahawks’ passing game should have a good opportunity
to produce some fantasy points this week as they host the Lions
and their 21st-ranked fantasy defense against opposing QB’s.
The Lions did hold Teddy Bridgewater to just 153 passing yards
and a touchdown, but were absolutely lit up by both Philip Rivers
and Aaron Rodgers in their other two contests. Rivers and Rodgers
combined for a total of 728 passing yards and four touchdowns.
While it’s tough to imagine Wilson approaching that kind
of passing yardage, it would not be surprising to see him have
a nice day through the air to go along with his highly productive
rushing numbers. Wilson has rushed for an average of 46 yards
per game this season and that’s actually a bit down from
what he did in 2014, so there’s no reason to think he can’t
do it again.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch has battled through his
fair share of injuries throughout his career, but it’s rare
that one actually takes him out of a game. That’s what happened
in Week 3 when Lynch left the game with a hamstring injury after
taking just five carries for 14 yards. It could have been game-related
as the Seahawks were expected to blow out the Bears, but Lynch
was taken out of the game when it was still a one-score game,
so that excuse is a bit weak. With Lynch out, the Seahawks surprisingly
turned to rookie Thomas Rawls – not Fred Jackson –
to take the bulk of the carries. Rawls did his part, rushing for
104 yards and a touchdown in the blowout win over the Bears. Jackson
touched the ball just four times on the day, leading to Rawls
becoming one of the hottest commodities on fantasy waiver wires
this week.
The Lions have struggled to slow down opposing running games
so far this season, having already allowed four rushing touchdowns
on the year. They did hold the Broncos backs to just 42 yards,
but had previously been beaten up to the tune of nearly 150 rushing
yards by Adrian Peterson and the Vikings backs in the game prior.
This is a good matchup for the Seahawks who seem to be committed
to running the ball no matter who is lining up in the backfield.
With Lynch missing practice early in the week and currently being
listed as questionable for the Monday night clash with the Lions,
there is a real reason for concern for fantasy owners. The Seahawks
will almost certainly not make their decision on Lynch until right
before game time, so if Lynch does not play, fantasy owners could
potentially be left with the dreaded goose egg. If fantasy owners
don’t have Rawls handcuffed to Lynch on their rosters, it’d
be wise to look elsewhere this weekend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jacksonville passing game has left fantasy
owners void of options for a number of years, and though things
have improved slightly so far in 2015, there is still little to
choose from. Blake Bortles has more touchdowns than interceptions
(5-to-3), but has a woeful completion percentage of 53.8 and isn’t
much of a fantasy play.
Allen Robinson’s Week 2 outburst has him among the top-20
in fantasy points among wideouts, but due to his inconsistency,
he’s little more than a WR3 play this week against Indianapolis.
The Colts are 21st in the NFL in pass defense, and though they
are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed
to both quarterbacks and tight ends, the team has given up the
eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie T.J.
Yeldon has a lot of promise, but so far that potential has yielded
few results. The second-round pick is averaging just 3.2 YPC and
has yet to find the end zone, though he could be a flex play this
week in deep leagues due to his match-up with the Colts. Indianapolis
is tied for 20th in the league in run defense, tied for 24th in
rushing scores permitted, and are tied for ninth-most fantasy
points surrendered to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck’s struggles (and sore
shoulder) have undoubtedly become a real concern for his fantasy
owners, but at this point there’s little for them to do
but sit back and wait, because trading him at this point when
his value is at its lowest is unwise. He’s thrown at least
two interceptions in all three of his games this season, a trend
that simply will not continue.
Despite Luck’s troubles, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief
have continued to produce. Hilton has yet to snag a touchdown
catch, but that will change soon – as in this week against
Jacksonville. The Jaguars rank 25th in the league in pass defense
and are in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
did little to give fantasy owners hope in his first two outings,
but things changed last week as he rumbled for 86 yards and pair
of scores in the Colts’ win over the Titans. He’s
a solid play this week against the Jags, who gave up three scores
on the ground last week to LeGarrette Blount. Overall, Jacksonville
is 12th in the NFL in rush defense but tied for 24th in rushing
scores allowed. They have given up more fantasy points to running
backs than all but six other teams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton was huge for fantasy owners last
week in his team’s win over the Saints, amassing a rare
300-plus yards through the air with two touchdown throws and a
rushing score. Tight end Greg Olsen had a monster game as well,
catching both of Newton’s touchdowns and adding 134 receiving
yards. That those two players are fantasy starters at their position
isn’t a surprise. What is a surprise is the contribution
Ted Ginn Jr. is making.
The former first-round pick amassed 93 receiving yards last week
and is the team’s top wide receiver. Ginn isn’t WR1
or even quite WR2 material, but he has a spot as a WR3, particularly
this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa is ninth in the league
in pass defense and tied for 19th in passing touchdowns surrendered.
They have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks
and fifth-fewest points to tight ends, but the ninth-most to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart continues to underwhelm, with just 52 yards and no touchdowns
last week. It was thought by many that he might end the year as
a legit RB1, but right now he’s barely a flex play. However,
match-ups determine much in fantasy, and Stewart (knee) has a
great one this week against Tampa that should ensure his spot
in lineups, assuming he gets on the field. The Buccaneers are
30th in the NFL in run defense and tied for 24th in rushing scores
permitted. Only three teams have given up more fantasy points
to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was going to be tough for Jameis Winston
last week against the Texans’ defense, so it shouldn’t
be a huge surprise that he ended the game having completed less
than half of his throws. Still, he did manage to throw one touchdown
and avoid multiple picks, so that’s a positive. Winston
is not a fantasy option most weeks, and that includes this one,
but it’s safe to say that Mike Evans is.
The second-year pro had 101 yards on seven receptions, but maybe
more telling, was targeted a whopping 17 times by Winston. Evans
is an every week fantasy starter, even against a tough foe like
Carolina. The Panthers rank 15th in pass defense but are tied
for second-fewest passing scores allowed. They have given up the
eighth-fewest fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers,
and tied for 12th-fewest points allowed to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Pundits had
wondered if this was the year Doug Martin made a comeback. It
looks increasingly less so each week. He had just 46 yards and
no scores last week, hasn’t found the end zone once this
year, and is averaging 3.8 YPC. Martin isn’t much except
a match-up based flex play, and his match-up with the Panthers
isn’t a great one. Carolina is fourth in the league in run
defense, tied for 16th in rushing scores surrendered, and have
given up the 13th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Mallett hasn’t been superb in
his outings, and he certainly isn’t worthy of being on fantasy
rosters, but he has done well enough to keep fantasy owners of
DeAndre Hopkins happy, which is good enough. Hopkins had eight
receptions for 101 yards with one score last week in Houston’s
win over Tampa, and he’s now in the top-10 in fantasy scoring
at his position.
The third-year pro is now a WR1 regardless of match-up, and should
be in all fantasy lineups this week as he takes on the Falcons.
Atlanta is 24th in the league in pass defense but tied for fifth-fewest
passing scores allowed. They have given up the 10th-fewest fantasy
points to quarterbacks, the fourth-fewest to wideouts, and are
tied for 12th-fewest points permitted to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The running
back situation in Houston is a mess, at least for fantasy owners.
In Week 2, Alfred Blue got five carries and gained six yards while
Chris Polk got most of the action. Last week, Blue picked up 139
yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Meanwhile, Arian Foster may
or may not play this week. If Foster does go, he should be in
all fantasy lineups as a flex play at least versus Atlanta. The
Falcons are 15th in the NFL in run defense, but no team has given
up more scores on the ground. Subsequently, they have allowed
more fantasy points to running backs than any other team in the
league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Julio Jones has a remarkable 34 catches,
440 yards, and four touchdowns through three games, having accumulated
more fantasy points than any other wide receiver, tight end or
running back so far this season. Matt Ryan is a solid QB1 as well,
with solid totals that have him among the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks.
The only surprise among Falcons players is that Roddy White, with
just nine targets all year, has become invisible.
Leonard Hankerson has seemingly taken over as the team’s
number two wideout, though his fantasy prospects are limited this
week against Houston. The Texans are 12th in the league in pass
defense, and though they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy
points to wide receivers, they’ve also given up the sixth-most
points to quarterbacks and ninth-most points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
lit up the Cowboys last week, rushing 30 times for 141 yards and
a trio of scores, not to mention 52 yards on five receptions.
He does have a bit of a toe injury which may limit him, but fantasy
owners would want to avoid Freeman anyway considering the difficult
match-up against the Texans. Houston is 10th in the NFL in rush
defense, tied for fifth-fewest running scores permitted while
allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brandon Weeden completed all but four of
his 26 throws last week in the Cowboys’ loss to the Falcons,
but none of them went for touchdowns. Without Dez Bryant, Weeden
relied on running back Lance Dunbar (10 catches, 100 yards) and
tight end Jason Witten (six catches, 65 yards) more than any wideout.
Dunbar and Witten are tied for the team lead in receptions, with
Dunbar leading in yards but Witten having more touchdowns.
Dunbar should be a flex option this week, while Witten is starting
material against the pliable Saints defense. New Orleans is 22nd
in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 19th in passing scores
surrendered. They have given up the second-most fantasy points
in the league to both quarterbacks and tight ends, but the 10th-fewest
to wide receivers. Running Game Thoughts: Joseph Randle
scored his first three touchdowns of the season last week and
picked up 87 yards on just 14 carries. Darren McFadden also scored,
but had just six carries, and is clearly the second option. Randle
is now fourth among running backs in fantasy scoring and a solid
RB2 option this week against New Orleans. The Saints rank 26th
in the league in run defense and are tied for 16th in rushing
scores allowed, but are in the middle of the league in fantasy
points given up to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Filling in for Drew Brees last week, Luke
McCown completed 31 of his 37 throws for 310 yards but did not
have a touchdown and threw one pick. Brees (shoulder) may play
this week, but either way, McCown should continue to be out of
fantasy lineups. If Brees plays, he’s a fantasy starter,
but there aren’t many Saints lighting up fantasy scoreboards,
which is odd considering how prolific the team has been in that
regard over the years.
Brandin Cooks may become that guy, and he’s due to find
the end zone against Dallas. The Cowboys have the league’s
13th-ranked pass defense and are tied for fifth-fewest passing
scores allowed. They have permitted the sixth-fewest fantasy points
to quarterbacks and the second-fewest to tight ends, but are in
the middle of the league in terms of points allowed to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
continues to plod along with a YPC average of 3.3. His fantasy
owners won’t care though, because the former Heisman winner
scored for the second time last week and is also putting up points
as a pass-catcher. Despite Ingram’s lack of big-play ability
(career-long run of 35 yards), he gets the ball enough to do damage
and put up points, and should once again be in lineups this week
against the Cowboys. Dallas is 10th in the league in run defense,
tied for 24th in rushing scores allowed and has surrendered the
12th-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jets and Dolphins are headed across
the pond to do battle at Wembley Stadium in London with an early
Sunday morning start time (9:30 AM ET) here in the states. Much
to the dismay of Jets’ fans around the world, last week
we got “bad Ryan Fitzpatrick.” Operating without Chris
Ivory and falling behind early, the Jets went into full on “chuck
mode” with run-pass splits that would bring a tear to Bill
Belichick’s eye. Much like the Week 2 Patriots, the Jets
went pass-happy with Fitzpatrick launching 58 passes compared
to just 12 handoffs. While the Jets have been passing the ball
more this year under Todd Bowles, this was a ridiculous split.
To the surprise of no one, Fitzpatrick throwing 58 passes didn’t
go so well. He threw 2 TDs, but he also threw the ball to the
Eagles three times, bringing his season interception total up
to five. Fitzpatrick was operating without Eric Decker (knee injury),
which led to 21 targets split about evenly between Quincy Enunwa
and Jeremy Kerley, neither of whom were very efficient. Brandon
Marshall led the team with 14 targets, catching 10 balls for 109
yards, 1 TD, and 1 of the dumbest plays you’ll ever see
– seriously, Marshall even said so himself. Marshall didn’t
so much fumble the ball as amidst his refusal to be tackled with
the ball, he threw it blindly behind him into the hands of an
Eagles defender. Bad judgment.
The Jets are hoping to have Decker back this week, but his status
is unclear at this time. If he does return, he and the Jets passing
attack will do battle with a Dolphins secondary that just get
shredded by Tyrod Taylor and the Bills’ run first offense.
The Dolphins looked bad for the second week in a row and if this
trend continues, it wouldn’t shock me if it cost Joe Philbin
his job. The Dolphins’ defensive season numbers through
three games aren’t terrible, but that’s due mainly
to Kirk Cousins’ ineptitude Week 1. Over the past two weeks,
Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor have combined to go 39/62 for 550
yards, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs. Coming off an embarrassing home blowout
loss to a defensive team, one would hope the Dolphins come out
and play inspired football, but the numbers do not support a sudden
turnaround.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets running game without Chris Ivory
last week was a lot like the lunar eclipse if you were in the
northeast (or at least where I live) – you knew it was there,
you just couldn’t see it. Ivory was there and he was active.
You just couldn’t see him on the field. Even though Ivory
was available to play, he saw a grand total of 0 snaps. This was
probably for the best for Ivory fantasy owners (unless you started
him) as he did not look good Week 2, but will likely be almost
fully healthy this week. He got in a full practice on Thursday,
which is very encouraging. Bilal Powell handled the bulk of the
carries, which ended up only being 10/12, with the other 2 going
to Zac Stacy. Powell did next to nothing with those carries, churning
out a measly 31 yards.
Ivory is almost certain to return this week to face this Dolphins
run defense that looked a lot more imposing four weeks ago than
it looks now. The addition of Ndamukong Suh was supposed to solidify
this run defense as an elite unit. Instead, he’s been going
rogue and the line has been operating like a New York subway turnstile.
The latest beneficiary, Karlos Williams, piled up 110 yards on
just 12 carries. The Dolphins are now allowing an average of 145
yards per game on the ground. This defense as a whole has been
kind to opposing players. Hopefully, Ivory returns healthy with
a full workload and reaps the benefits of this plus matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill had a solid fantasy day last
week, but he was absolutely dreadful in real football terms. He
completed 26-of-49 passes for 297 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs, but
those 3 picks were bad – very bad – specifically the
one Preston Brown caught at the line and brought back for 6. Tannehill
looked completely overwhelmed and the complete lack of a running
game does not help. He was expected by many to make a leap this
year, closer to guys like Luck and Rodgers than he is to guys
like Stafford or Bortles. He’s trending in the wrong direction.
Lost in the shuffle of Tannehill’s poor performance was
the emergence of Rishard Matthews as the No.2 option in this passing
game. He outperformed Jarvis Landry in this one, but Landry remains
the No.1 option. Matthews saw 10 targets (Landry saw 13) and corralled
6 balls for 113 yards and 2 TDs. Quick aside – the Dolphins
traded for Kenny Stills this offseason. I have no idea why. But
in case you were wondering, he is completely irrelevant. DeVante
Parker saw 7 targets last week as well and is more involved in
the offense every week. This offense is not strong enough to support
three receivers and the Dolphins did not draft Parker to make
him play second fiddle to Rishard Matthews. When the Parker takeover
eventually comes, expect it to be at the expense of Matthews,
but I don’t think that time is here just yet.
This week’s matchup against the Jets is not a good one.
Even though they lost last week, the Jets made Sam Bradford’s
life miserable. Yes, it is entirely possible that Bradford just
isn’t that good. The Eagles offense looked a little better
last week, but Bradford still only managed to complete 50% of
his passes for 118 yards and 1 TD. Jordan Matthews was the only
WR to catch a pass. I reiterate last week’s sentiment that
he is the only non-RB worth starting in this offense. The Jets
have allowed just 191.7 yards per game through the air and have
more interceptions (4) than TDs allowed (3). This is a less than
ideal spot for Tannehill to bounce back from last week’s
dismal performance.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller was clearly not 100% last
week, but this is the third week in a row that Miller would have
been better off on your bench. For a guy many expected to ascend
the ranks to the RB elite in 2015, this is about the worst possible
start. Surprisingly enough, Miller was effective when he touched
the ball but once again, the decisions of the Dolphins’
coaching staff continue to confound. Miller averaged better than
5 yards per carry and averaged 9 yards per reception but he touched
the ball just ten times. Further frustrating matters was the garbage
time sequence where the Dolphins had the ball at the 2-yard line
and proceeded to throw 4 times with no pass even remotely close
to being completed. I have no idea what the Dolphins are doing
this year, and quite frankly, I don’t think they do either.
Miller appeared to exit last week’s game no worse for wear
and should be good to go this week against this Jets’ run
defense that just gave up 108 yards on 25 carries to Ryan Mathews.
With Revis & Co patrolling the secondary, it makes sense that
teams would try and beat the Jets on the ground. Overall, teams
have averaged just 3.5 yards per carry against the Jets, which
is exactly what Miller has averaged this season. Ultimately, Miller’s
productivity will come down to volume. How much work are the Dolphins
actually going to give him? He saw 13 carries in Week 1 against
the Redskins and his carry total has dropped by exactly 3 each
game since then. I don’t expect that trend to continue (if
Miller sees just 4 carries this week and isn’t hurt, you
can forget about him for the rest of the season), but it’s
certainly not encouraging. Getting out-carried by Jonas Gray is
never good. This is an early make or break game for the Dolphins.
It would be nice to see something positive out of Miller and the
running game this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through three games, all of Eli Manning’s
passes have either been caught by a Giant or hit the ground. He
is playing arguably the best football of his career, completing
64.8% of his passes. The 4 TDs are lower than you’d like
to see, but as long as Manning isn’t turning the ball over,
you have to be pleased. Last week against the Redskins, the Giants
finally won a game but it was by no means impressive. Tom Coughlin
needs to go. As much as it pains me to say it, this team is loaded
with talent, but it’s difficult to overcome a coach that
constantly tries to lose games. What Coughlin did in the final
four minutes of last week’s game is completely unacceptable.
You cannot throw on either of those late 3rd downs at the expense
of burning 40 seconds. One mistake ended up benefitting fantasy
owners as Rueben Randle lucked his way into a 41-yard score. But
even before that massive fluke, Randle was producing – probably
because he was angry at me for declaring him “useless”
last week. Randle caught all 7 of his targets for 116 yards and
the aforementioned lucky score that never should’ve been
thrown or caught.
The Giants will have a much tougher time this week as they head
upstate to take on a Bills team that just massacred Ryan Tannehill.
Outside of a 40-point ravaging by Angry Tom Brady, this Bills
defense has been mighty impressive, holding each of their non-Brady
opponents to just 14 points. This is shaping up to be the week
Manning throws his first pick.
Running Game Thoughts: Tom Coughlin is notoriously stubborn.
He has been this way for years. While a team like the Patriots
will do whatever is working, Coughlin insists on running because
that’s how he coaches. It doesn’t matter how well
it’s working. 31 carries for 84 yards in last week’s
victory over the Redskins - a stout 2.7 yards per carry. That’s
what the Giants’ RB triumvirate accomplished. Yet again,
Shane Vereen was clearly the superior option in the backfield.
Yet again, Coughlin does not care. Andre Williams led the team
in carries with 14 and barely averaged 2 yards per carry. Rashad
Jennings took 11 carries and couldn’t get to 3 yards per
carry. Meanwhile, Vereen was one yard away from 4 yards per carry,
but he only received 6 touches. The Giants also decided that using
Vereen out of the backfield wasn’t part of last week’s
plan. It’s hard to get a beat on what the Giants are thinking.
One thing is clear though. None of these backs can be trusted.
Jennings belongs on the waiver wire. Williams is the least talented
of the three, but he gets the goal line carries. Vereen is the
only guy worth owning, but you’re at the mercy of the Giants’
game plan and game flow.
The Bills sport the No.1 rush defense in the league in terms
of yards allowed per game. However, they have allowed 4.3 yards
per carry to opposing backs. The problem with both of these numbers
is that teams barely run the ball against the Bills. Compared
to the Bucs, who see the most opposing rushing attempts at 35
per game, the Bills see an average of less than half that with
17.3 attempts against per game. I do believe the Bills’
run defense is very good and perhaps that has something to do
with the low attempts against. It could also have a lot to do
with their three opponents. Andrew Luck and Tom Brady love to
throw and their coaches cut them loose often. The Dolphins coaches
are evidently trying to lose their jobs as they have an aversion
to giving the ball to Lamar Miller. I don’t think any of
these games are reliable predictors of what this week’s
game will look like. I expect the Giants to run the ball 25-plus
times whether it works or not.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I was a big Tyrod Taylor enthusiast since
the Bills signed him. I thought he would have fantasy value because
of his legs and lead a conservative offense but I did not think
he would be this good. Through three games, he is completing 74.4%
of his passes and has thrown 7 TDs against 3 INTs. The first two
games saw Taylor make moves with his legs. Last week against the
Dolphins, he barely ran at all; and he didn’t need to. Taylor
blasted the Dolphins for 277 yards and 3 TDs - no rushing needed.
He is a QB1 until further notice.
Next up – the league’s worst pass defense by yards
allowed. The Giants are allowing 335.7 yards per game through
the air and a 68.6 completion percentage against. Only their opponents
have seen opposing teams throw the ball more against them with
157 compared to the Giants’ 140 passes against. And one
of the QBs the Giants have faced is Kirk Cousins. The Giants pass
defense is as bad as it gets. Taylor will have no trouble moving
the ball through the air. I would be remiss to fail to mention
the status of Sammy Watkins. Taylor has proven this season that
he does not need Watkins to produce. Nevertheless, it would be
nice if he did. That does not appear to be in the cards this week.
Watkins left last week’s game early with a calf injury and
as we’ve seen with players like Alshon Jeffery and Victor
Cruz, the duration of a calf injury can be tricky. Watkins is
not going to play this week, leaving Robert Woods, Percy Harvin,
and a sprinkle of Chris Hogan to man the receiver positions. Taylor
will probably be looking at TE Charles Clay a lot this week. Clay
is not a bad option as a bye week or injury replacement in a favorable
matchup. As for the rest of the passing game, I would not trust
anyone, but Taylor himself.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills are still a run first offense
and the news that LeSean McCoy will miss Sunday’s game is
a blessing in disguise. Whether it’s due to Shady’s
diminishing abilities, the change in scenery, or his hamstring,
he has been far less productive than expected, averaging just
3.4 yards per carry. Meanwhile, 5th round rookie Karlos (that’s
Carlos with a ‘K’) Wiliams has taken 19 fewer carries
than McCoy and produced 40 more yards. That comes out to 7.8 yards
per carry. While that is obviously unsustainable, it speaks to
the talent the rookie possesses and gets his owners very excited
at the prospects of a full workload, which is coming for the first
time this season. It would not surprise me in the least if he
puts in a strong performance this week and assumes a bigger role
going forward. This week Williams is a strong RB2 because Shady
is out, but I think he will have standalone Flex value going forward
regardless of Shady’s health. The Giants still sport a top
5 run defense by numbers, but I still support the notion that
this is a mirage. I think this is the week the truth finally reveals
itself, courtesy of Karlos Williams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles finally won a game! The offense
exploded! Chip Kelly is a genius! Sam Bradford is elite! Super
Bowl here they come! Right? Right! – WRONG! The Eagles won
this game because of nonsense. They scored three TDs in the 2nd
quarter and did a whole lot of nothing the rest of the game. Their
first TD was a punt return. Their third TD was a result of a short
field because Brandon Marshall forgot how to play football. Then,
after taking a 24-7 lead into the half, the Eagles didn’t
score the rest of the game and almost allowed the Jets to complete
a comeback despite Ryan Fitzpatrick completing three second half
passes to the wrong team. Bradford completed 14-of-28 passes for
118 yards and 1 TD. The best thing we can say about Bradford is
he didn’t turn the ball over for the first time all season
(he threw 2 picks in each of his first two games). Not surprisingly,
118 passing yards does not produce quality numbers for his receivers.
Jordan Matthews has the highest floor and ceiling of any Eagles
receiver and continues to be the only pass catcher worth starting
(I will say this every week until it isn’t true). JMatt
caught 6 of his 8 targets for 49 yards and once again missed a
TD by 1 yard. Two other receivers, Miles Austin and Nelson Agholor,
split another 8 targets evenly between them. They caught the same
number of passes as I did last week. Zach Ertz had 2 catches for
30 yards. Bradford’s six other completions went to running
backs.
The Eagles offense is not fine. Many people will just look at
the end result of last week’s game combined with the Giants
beat down of the Redskins, and think the Eagles will run away
with this one. They will not. The Redskins’ defense has
been a revelation thus far. They have allowed just 202.3 passing
yards per game through the first three weeks. Their biggest failure,
if you want to call it that, is that they are one of just three
teams to not record an interception yet this season (fyi –
the other two are the Saints and, surprisingly, the Seahawks).
I think that changes this week and this game is more competitive
than people expect.
Running Game Thoughts: Oh how the mighty have fallen. Missing
Dallas yet, DeMarco? Sorry, minor rant. DeMarco Murray sat out
last week’s contest with a bum hamstring, but he got in
limited practices on Tuesday and Wednesday before practicing in
full on Thursday. I think he ends up playing, but he practiced
last week before ultimately shutting it down on Sunday. Be sure
to check his status heading into the weekend. Ryan Mathews filled
in and was everything Chip Kelly dreamed Murray would be - 25
carries for 108 yards to go along with 2 catches for 20 yards
and a score. These are the type of numbers we’re looking
for out of the Eagles’ RB1. The question is, what happens
if Murray returns this week? Surely, Mathews has earned a role
going forward, but to what extent? Plus, there’s still Darren
Sproles. He was ineffective as a runner last week, taking 11 carries
for just 17 yards. His 4 catches for 19 yards were unspectacular.
If not for a one-yard TD plunge (unlikely to happen very often)
and a punt return, it would’ve been a very poor day for
Sproles. The best thing we can say about Sproles is his role is
clearly defined. He is in the game on many passing downs and he
returns punts. This gives him consistent, albeit modest, weekly
value.
Since you apparently can’t pass on the Redskins, surely
the run is more effective. Nope. The Redskins are allowing just
75 yards on the ground per game so far at just 3.6 yards per carry.
It is important to note teams run the ball just 20.7 times per
game against the Redskins. Is this defense truly elite or have
the first three weeks been the product of poor opponent play and
randomness? I think this week we find out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins was absolutely dreadful last
week. Yes he completed 30-of-49 passes for 316 yards, but he only
had 1 TD to 2 INTs and most of those yards came in garbage time.
The Giants took an early lead, which forced the Redskins to throw
way more than they planned and Cousins was not up to the task.
He looked tentative, lacked poise, and was erratic on his throws.
Jordan Reed predictably led the way with 6 catches on 9 targets
for 96 yards. Most impressively, he is somehow still playing football
and we are heading into Week 4. Keep it up, Jordan! Pierre Garcon
had a decent game, which could’ve been much bigger had Cousins
not missed an open Garcon on multiple occasions. Garcon saw a
game high 12 targets, but was only able to reel in five of them
for 64 yards. DeSean Jackson had hoped to return this week but
was ruled out Friday according to media reports. In his absence,
Cousins has reined in the offense and completed nearly 70% of
his passes this season, but has thrown more picks than TDs and
has not proven capable of moving the offense when the running
game isn’t working.
Next up for Cousins is an Eagles defense that hasn’t necessarily
been great at preventing opponents from moving the ball, but forces
a lot of turnovers. The Eagles won the turnover battle 4-1 last
week against the Jets and have now forced opposing QBs to throw
the ball to them five times in just three games. The high yardage
totals against could also be a product of the fact that the Eagles
have seen the 6th most passing attempts against. The Eagles rapid
play calling leads to shorter drives in terms of time and more
plays for opponents. It is no surprise that the Eagles are tied
with (surprisingly) the Bills for most plays against with 215.
The volume of Cousins’ workload will depend very much on
how effective this Eagles offense is. If they move the ball well
and score often, Cousins will have to throw to keep up. If they
struggle, the Redskins will continue their plan to control the
game on the ground. You’re not starting or even rostering
Cousins outside of 2 QB leagues, but if you have any stake in
his performance, perhaps the Captain can find a way to sabotage
the Eagles’ warp drive.
Running Game Thoughts: After Week 1, all was clear – rumors
of Alfred Morris’ demise were greatly exaggerated. He’s
the clear lead back and on his way to another 1000-yard campaign.
After Week 2, all was clear – rumors of Alfred Morris’
demise were not exaggerated. The Matt Jones takeover was upon
us. The hype was real. If for some reason Matt Jones was unowned
in your league, you should’ve picked him up and started
him as a Flex play at worst with RB1 upside. After Week 3, no
one knows anything. Alfred Morris saw just six carries and if
you turned on the game late, you probably didn’t even know
he was playing. Naturally, Matt Jones completely took over the
backfield as everyone expected…to the tune of 11 carries
for 38 yards…and no targets in the passing game. What? Chris
Thompson, a 5th round pick from the 2013 draft absolutely dominated
the Redskins’ backfield? Really? Yes. Alfred Morris and
Matt Jones combined to play just 38 snaps last week. Chris Thompson
saw the rest. He saw 11 targets and caught 8 of them for 57 yards
and a late TD. He only had two carries, but took one of them for
26 yards. Fantasy owners are traditionally very reactionary with
a “what have you done for me lately” attitude but
I caution everyone invested in this backfield to take a step back
and decide what to believe – the Week 1 dominance of Morris,
the Week 2 emergence of Jones, or the Week 3 shocker that was
Chris Thompson. I’ll offer my thoughts, but I implore you
to not treat them as gospel. I think last week is the aberration.
Chris Thompson is unlikely to be relevant again. He will have
his moments and could spark a big play or two, but he is not a
guy to go after. I don’t think Morris will completely disappear,
but I think Jones will receive more carries going forward. It
remains to be seen what he will do with them and if ball security
will be an issue.
This week against the Eagles, expect the Redskins to once again
try and establish the run early. They could not get anything going
last week against the Giants and working against them is the fact
that the Jets couldn’t get anything going against the Eagles
last week either. Granted the Jets were operating without Chris
Ivory, but this is still an Eagles defense allowing opposing rushers
just 3.1 yards per carry, and that’s while seeing a healthy
28 rushes against per game. If possible, I would take a wait and
see approach on this backfield for Week 4. Out of all three guys,
Jones is the one I’d feel most comfortable starting, but
only as a Flex, and only if I had to. Hopefully this week provides
a little more clarity.
A final note regarding all players in this game – Hurricane
Joaquin looms large over this weekend and it could impact this
game. It does not look like the NFL will move this game up in
order to play it in front of the storm. They have discussed moving
the game to Ford Field in Detroit, which is the same thing the
NFL did with the Jets-Bills game last November. However, an equally
plausible scenario if the NFL decides the game cannot be played,
would be to postpone the game altogether. This information is
crucial and will likely be revealed on Saturday. Be prepared to
make the necessary moves to replace your Eagles or Redskins should
they suddenly find themselves having a bye week.